VictorInThePacific
Posts: 169
Joined: 10/30/2008 Status: offline
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My feeble contribution. Disclaimer: I am using the original version of the game. From what I have seen on this forum, that should not have too much effect on what happened. You can tell me if I am wrong. This is a report on GIUK #2, “Gauntlet: Small Opposed Transit”. It does not read as a piece of prose, rather it is mostly reported as a chronological record. There are no graphics here, because I do not have that technology, and in any case, I am more interested in the tactical problem than pictures. There is not too much here beyond what others have already reported, but I do offer some refinements and numerical analysis. This cameo scenario clearly illustrates the weakness of unsupported submarines in the presence of airpower (see sub, kill sub), even if it’s just a few helicopters, the weakness of unsupported ships in the presence of superior detection, and the general weakness of a scattered force composed of specialized units. This last comment also suggests what strategy the Soviets should employ. ***************** Nov. 30, 1031 Captain’s Log, Lt. Cdr. H. Sulu, Commander, Convoy NP15 Convoy NP15 is presently 327 nm SW of Narvik, travelling at 15 kn. Our ETA is 22 h from now. This gives us a 6 h margin for contingencies. Visibility is 21 nm. All 4 helicopters are armed for anti-sub work. Satellite surveillance has detected no Soviet surface units in the area. SSN Tireless swept our route yesterday and detected no enemy submarines. COMNORNORTH further advises us that the only aircraft the Soviets have available in this area are a handful of older aircraft flying from Banak. All sensors are on standby, and we will continue to keep a low profile until detected. <note 1> Convoy NP15 is formed as an inverted Y, with the Brave (Type 22/2 FF; good point defense) in front, and the Boone (Oliver Perry FF; good area defense) in the middle. Ship separation is 5 nm. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1416 Sonar room on the Brave reports sub contact 40 nm N. All ships full stop. Brave launches Lynx 1. Boone launches Seahawk 1. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1435 Lynx 1 reports arrival above sub. Lynx 1 commences standard ASW procedure. Seahawk 1 is standing by. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1437 Sonar has exact contact on sub, traveling S at 5 kn, shallow depth, 37 nm from Brave. Signature matches Victor II. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1444 Lynx 1 drops 2 x Stingray torps directly above sub. One hits immediately; the other misses. Critical hit. Sub sunk. Lynx 1 RTB. <note2> Ship’s Log, Boone, 1450 Convoy resumes course at 15 kn. Seahawk 1 commences passive AEW procedure, 100 nm ahead. Ship’s Log, Brave, 1602 Lynx 1 ready. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1719 Seahawk 1 RTB. Launch Seahawk 2 for passive AEW. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1729 Seahawk 2 reports 1 x Nanuchka III by ESM, 127 nm N of convoy. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1730 Seahawk 2 reports 1 x Nanuchka III by ESM, 116 nm N of convoy. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1740 Seahawk 2 activates SS radar. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1741 Seahawk 2 obtains exact fix on Nanuchkas. 2 x Nanuchka III 126 nm N of convoy, in Vestfjorden mouth, moving E at 5 kn. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1742 2 x Lynx rearmed with Sea Skua. Convoy alters course NNW for favorable Harpoon attack position. <note 3,4> Ship’s Log, Boone, 1828 Narvik radar reports 2 x airplanes inbound 75 nm to the NE (from Banak). Ship’s Log, Boone, 1831 Seahawk 2 turns radar off and heads for Boone at VL altitude, below air search radar. Captain’s Log, Lt. Cdr. H. Sulu, Commander, Convoy NP15 With Soviet fighters roaming about, it is too risky to operate helos more than 20 nm from the Boone. I do not want to set a helo up as a target near the convoy, because this may attract airplanes, which may then locate the convoy, which may then be exposed to long-range missile attack. This means that we will lose contact with the Nanuchkas. The Nanuchkas are now 120 nm away, still moving at 5 kn. I want to close the range by 50 nm. This will take 3 h at our present course and speed. Ship’s Log, Boone, 1845 Contact with Nanuchkas lost. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2024 Contact with airplanes lost. Visibility 6 nm. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2030 Seahawk 2 RTB. Launch Seahawk 1 for passive AEW. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2035 Seahawk 1 reports 2 x Nanuchka III by ESM, 93 nm to NE. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2036 Seahawk 1 activates SS radar. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2037 Seahawk 1 obtains exact fix on Nanuchkas. 2 x Nanuchka III, 91 nm away, 98 nm NE of convoy, in Vestfjorden mouth, moving SSE at 5 kn. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2039 Convoy alters course N. Will engage in 2 h. Seahawk 1 deactivates SS radar. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2140 Seahawk 1 activates SS radar. 2 x Nanuchka III 85 nm NE of convoy, in Vestfjorden mouth, moving SSE at 5 kn. Will engage in 1 h. Seahawk 1 deactivates SS radar. Ship’s Log, Brave, 2145 Launch Lynx 1. Launch Lynx 2. Both Lynx head for Nanuchkas at VL altitude. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2155 All ships come to 20 kn. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2221 Lynx report range 10, 11 nm to nearest Nanuchka, on her starboard bow, and holding position. Both Nanuchkas moving SSE at 5 kn. Boone is 73 nm from Nanuchka 1. Boone launches 4 x Harpoon. Convoy slows to 15 kn. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2228 Harpoons are 9 nm to target. Both Lynx commence attack run. Lynx 1 reaches launch range, fires 4 x Sea Skua, and commences rapid withdrawal. 2 x Harpoons hit. Nanuchka 1 breaks in two and sinks rapidly. Lynx 2 withdraws without launching. Both Lynx RTB. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2240 Freighters alter course NNW. Both frigates alter course E at maximum group speed to engage Nanuchka. Brave takes the point. Captain’s Log, Lt. Cdr. H. Sulu, Commander, Convoy NP15 I am ordering the freighters to stay outside of Siren range. With one Nanuchka sunk, the remaining 6 Sirens should not penetrate the area SAM defense of the Boone. Nevertheless, the remaining Nanuchka appears to present the greatest threat to the freighters. There are no other Soviet ships in the area, and probably no airplanes or subs. We could evade and still make Narvik, but that Nanuchka may cause problems later. The Boone and Brave will engage and sink her, with support from 2 Lynx helos, which will be available by the time we close to Exocet range. Ship’s Log, Boone, 2315 Nanuchka alters course to SW at 19 kn. Both frigates alter course NE, reduce speed to 15 kn. <note 5> Ship’s Log, Boone, 2328 Seahawk 1 RTB. Launch Seahawk 2 for passive AEW. Ship’s Log, Brave, Dec. 1, 0000 2 x Lynx ready (Sea Skua). Launch Lynx 1. Launch Lynx 2. Both Lynx head for Nanuchka at VL altitude. Ship’s Log, Boone, Dec. 1, 0009 Max group speed (29 kn). Ship’s Log, Boone, 0013 Lynx 1,2 report Siren launch. 5 x Siren: 26 nm to Boone, 23 nm to Brave. Lynx 1,2 depart target area. Boone, Brave withdraw at maximum group speed (29 kn). Ship radars ON. Boone, Brave launch SAMs, destroy Sirens. <note 6> Ship’s Log, Boone, 0016 Nanuchka launches 1 x Siren: 27 nm to Boone, 24 nm to Brave. Boone kills it with SAMs. Ship’s Log, Boone, 0018 Both frigates and both Lynx return at maximum speed to engage Nanuchka. Freighters are now 61 nm N of Nanuchka and slow to 5 kn. Ship’s Log, Brave, 0022 4 x Exocet launched at Nanuchka. Ship’s Log, Boone, 0023 Exocets are 9 nm to target. Both Lynx commence attack run. Ship’s Log, Boone, 0024 Lynx 1,2 reach launch range, fire 4 x Sea Skua each, and commence rapid withdrawal. Nanuchka shoots down 4 x Exocet, 1 x Sea Skua. Ship’s Log, Boone, 0025 3 x Sea Skua hit. Massive secondary explosion observed. Nanuchka sinks rapidly. Both Lynx RTB. Ship’s Log, Boone, 0026 Freighters alter course ENE. 190 nm to Narvik. ETA 13 h. Frigates alter course N to rejoin freighters. All ships 15 kn. Ship’s Log, Boone, 0100 Boone, Brave radars on standby. Ship’s Log, Boone, 0300 Convoy is completely reformed. Ship’s Log, Boone, 0720 Message received from COMNORNORTH for Lt. Cdr. H. Sulu. Captain’s Log, Lt. Cdr. H. Sulu, Commander, Convoy NP15 Convoy NP15 is presently 90 nm SW of Narvik, travelling at 15 kn. Our ETA is 6 h from now. We still have a 1 h margin for contingencies. No Soviet naval forces are expected this close to Narvik, COMNORNORTH advises us that our supplies are badly needed and must be unloaded ASAP. All anti-ship missiles, as well as 16 standard missiles, have been expended, so we are in need of resupply ourselves. We are, however, still fully prepared for ASW missions. Notes: <1> In retrospect, this is a bad idea. Surface ships have NO defense against torpedoes launched at short range. Therefore enemy subs must be destroyed at more than 30 nm. Since passive sonar is unlikely to detect stationary subs, SOMETHING has to use active sonar. The risk is that the SOMETHING will be detected at a much greater range. However, there will always be defenses to the additional threats. In this scenario, the defense is that the Soviets have no units that the NATO frigates can’t defeat. Also, in principle, one Seahawk would always be scanning the area ahead and around the convoy with its 100-nm range SS radar (at medium altitude). The fuel capacity of a Seahawk is such that the second Seahawk will always be ready before the first one has to refuel. But in this scenario, I know that actually launching these helos at the beginning will have no effect on what happens. <2> A single helo does not carry enough torps to have a good chance of sinking any modern sub. At least 4 torps should be available. Without critical damage, it takes 4 Stingray torps to sink one Victor II. In this case, the first 2 did it. In fact, the sub was sunk within one second of the first torp being launched. Never knew what hit him! Not only that, but a Victor II sonar only goes out to 35 nm. With the convoy sonar on passive, and the closest approach being 37 nm, and that when the ships were stopped, the sub was never even aware of the presence of enemy ships (although it was being pinged by Sonobuoys for 10 min). <3> The 2 Nanuchkas have a maximum of 12 SS-N-9 Siren missiles, which have a maximum range of 60 nm, although really the practical range may be as low as 20 nm, which is the range at which the Nanuchka radar detects a "silent" surface target. (The Soviets tend to have much worse detection capacity than the NATO forces, and this can be used to good effect.) Due to this short range, the NATO forces should be able to do a number on the Nanuchkas. The Sirens travel at 600 kn (www.warfare.ru/?lang=&catid=312&linkid=2560) = 6 s per nm. The NATO FF Brave has 2 Sea Wolf launchers and 12 missiles. range 3 nm, speed 1300 kn (?), hit 80%, 15 s cycle time. It should be able to shoot down 1 missile per cycle time with guns. The NATO FF Boone has 2 SM1 launchers and 36 missiles. range 20 nm, speed 1300 kn (?), hit 60%, 15 s cycle time. Its Phalanx gun should be able to shoot down 1 missile per cycle time. Assume that all the Sirens are launched in one batch at the Brave (you can arrange this by putting the Brave in front). The Brave will have 3 x 6 = 18 s, which gives 2 shots, killing about 3 Sirens, plus one for the guns. The Boone will have maybe 15 nm (90 s) to respond, so it will get off 6 shots, killing about 7 Sirens. One should get through, which may or may not hit the Brave. A hit will sink the Brave. This calculation is inaccurate for 3 reasons: the results will typically give more or less hits than the average result, the Boone tends to fire late, and the computer tends to spread out its Siren fire in time. If all the Sirens are launched in one batch at the Boone, the Brave won't get to shoot. The Boone should now respond over 20 nm (120 s), so it will get off 8 shots, killing about 10 Sirens, plus one for the gun. One should get through, which may or may not hit the Boone. A hit will sink the Boone. If the Sirens are launched at both NATO frigates, neither FF should be hit. In none of these scenarios do the NATO ships use up all their missiles, but in some cases they ARE limited by the launcher cycle time. What is clear from this calculation is that if one Nanuchka is sunk before it gets to launch Sirens, the other one will have no chance of hurting the NATO ships. Now let's consider under what circumstances the freighters might get shot. Are the freighter radars OFF? They should be. Then the Nanuchkas will really need to close to 20 nm before they get to shoot, in which case the Boone gets less time to respond (the Brave won't participate in this situation). Also, the gunners on the Boone might be asleep (sorry, I mean the computer fire control system might fire late). So it could easily be possible for the Boone's standard missiles to be overloaded, and while the Boone doesn't get hit, some Sirens will hit the undefended freighters. Summary: If all the Sirens are launched in one batch at one NATO ship, there is a good chance that that ship will be sunk. If all the Sirens are launched in one batch at any combination of NATO ships except the Brave, there is a good chance that at least one ship will be sunk. If all the Sirens are launched in one batch at the Brave (good point defense) plus one other NATO ship, it is unlikely that any ship will be sunk. If half the Sirens don't get launched, it is unlikely that any ship will be sunk. THEREFORE we should sink at least one Nanuchka before it gets to fire, which can pretty much be guaranteed <note 4>. Alternatively, we can use the superior NATO detection to just avoid the Nanuchkas and sneak into Narvik. <4> Consider an attack by 4 Harpoons against two Nanuchka IIIs. Assume that the attack comes in from a direction such that the second Nanuchka is as far from the Harpoons as possible. Harpoons travel at 560 kn. The SA-N-4 Gecko SAMs on the Nanuchkas have an 8 nm range. The Harpoons need 51.5 s to cross this distance. With a 15 s cycle time, the Gecko launcher on the target will get 3 shots; the remoter one will get 2 shots. Each Gecko has a 50% chance to kill a target; the Nanuchka CIWS also has a 50%. One Harpoon should penetrate the point defense. It will hit 80% of the time. One Harpoon hit will sink a Nanuchka. This is a good attack, but not guaranteed. A modification would be for the NATO ships to close to where 4 x Exocets can be added to the attack. (The standard missiles can also be thrown in at 20 nm range, but they may have other targets.) This option would give a good chance of sinking both Nanuchkas, but it runs the risk of losing the frigates, as well as the freighters, so it is inadvisable, especially if the objective is to sink one Nanuchka before it gets to shoot. Another option would be to attack with two Sea Skua-armed Lynx. The Lynx has to close to 7 nm. Its top speed is 180 kn, so it needs 20 s to travel that mile. The SA-N-4 Gecko functions at all altitudes between VL and M, so the Lynx have no safe approach altitude. A Gecko travels at 2300 kn, so it needs 12.5 s to travel 8 nm. Assume a 5 s initial reaction time and a 15 s cycle time for the Gecko launcher. The first Gecko will hit (or miss) before the Lynx launches, and the second Gecko will be on the way. If one Lynx is shot down before launching missiles, only one of the remaining Sea Skuas are likely to get through the point defense, and this is not enough to do significant damage to a Nanuchka. The result of this attack would be about 25% both Lynx lost for no damage, about 25% one Lynx lost for no damage, about 25% one each Lynx and Nanuchka lost, and about 25% one Nanuchka sunk for no damage. Not a very favorable attack. But if the first and third options are combined in such a way that the Lynx close the final mile while the Geckos are engaging Harpoons, they WILL safely reach launch range and escape, which means one Harpoon and 5 x Sea Skua expect to hit the Nanuchka, which should sink at least 90% of the time. If this best attack fails, the convoy should probably try to reach Narvik by stealth. <5> The Nanuchkas are about 55 nm away at this point. Why did they move to intercept? Our ships should still be invisible. <6> Boone fired 3,3,3 standard missiles. Brave fired 1 Sea Wolf. 5 Sirens killed. <7> The percentages stated above are the base values. There may be modifiers.
< Message edited by VictorInThePacific -- 11/28/2008 1:39:57 AM >
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