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LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2

 
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LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/8/2008 3:09:35 AM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		LOST AT SEA – TAKE 2 – Bill (A) vs Don (J)

Hi there. I am new to this but am taking over a game between Bill (Adm Spruance) and Steve (just Steve I suppose). Bill said he was going to restart his AAR – Victory at Sea. He is obviously an experienced player, I am not so much but we will see how this goes.

So, as a corollary, and perhaps to seek advice on how things work I am starting/restarting an AAR. I found that Steve had a few posts under LOST AT SEA, so that seemed like a good title, especially considering the situation and Bill’s AAR title.

This is a no Admiral Spruance zone.

Here’s the basic game rules.

It’s August 1, 1943. CHS Nikmod v9.2b. I’m the Japanese.

I actually took this game over as of June, 1943 – we have played about 45 days thus far on 2 day turns. The house rules look like this:

1) ASW – no more than 1 ASW TF per hex/trailing a convoy, max size of 6 ships

2) Air ASW and Naval Search – given the lethality of Japanese army ASW aircraft, altitude minimum of 6,000 ft and some limitations on IJA aircraft.

3) Stacking – air to 50 x AF size, CAP limited to 350 a/c on CAP missions (LRCAP and otherwise) max per hex (to limit UberCap). Limits on AA/base force stacking due to Nikmod AA effects on light planes. Limits on island and atoll stacking (100,000 & 50,000 troops).

4) Some limits on 4E bombing altitudes.

5) Resource/Oil bombing limited to 50% destruction of the site’s capacity due to the slow repair rate and high repair cost and also the ease that bombers get through in NikMod.

6) TF size limits for transport TFs – 60 for Allies and 30 for Japanese.


Post #: 1
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/8/2008 3:40:49 AM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		SITUATION REVIEW

North Pacific – Steve obviously started preparing these bases for defense sometime in early 1943. Nearly every island in the Kuriles has a small infantry unit and level 6 forts. Several have small base forces and the airbase capable islands have additional infantry and coast defenses. Scouting planes are up, minor minefields are in place, and construction units are on each island building additional forts. Sakhalin is garrisoned by about 450 AV and well fortified as well.

Home Islands, Ryukus, Bonins – I think Steve took note of Canoerebel’s success in striking deep into the interior with a big, self-contained smash and grab operation. It, as noted in the north pacific, obviously made Steve nervous. Chichi Jima and Iwo Jima are level 9 forts, garrisoned well with several hundred AV, minefields, etc. Even Tori Shima has a garrison and construction force working on the airfield. The Ryukus are all being fortified and I have noted three reserve troop concentrations in the home islands with accompanying fast transports (about 500 AV each and an army HQ prepped for major bases – Iwo, Okinawa, Chichi Jima).

Central Pacific – frightening…

Central Pacific Take 2 – the Marshalls are all lost and Ponape and Wake are well suppressed. Wake hosts a strong garrison though and minefields. The Marianas and Carolines are garrisoned fairly strongly with 600 AV+ on each of Guam, Tinian, Saipan, and Pagan with strong forts and large (very large) minefields. An MLE and mining force were based on Saipan when I took the game over.

East Pacific – I cite this area because obviously it was a focus of operations for Steve. It was pretty easy to determine his sub strategy and modus operandi here. He had about 3 wolfpacks deployed here of about 6-8 subs each with high durability killers, Glen carriers, and a long range (30,000 endurance) boat each. Two were out front and one was in a central position obviously to react. We have continued his sub tactics and sunk several cargo vessels in this area.

South Pacific – Doesn’t exist anymore. Outside of some sound detectors in the Solomons, Japan has been wiped clean here. This is worrisome for 1943.

North Australia and New Guinea – When I took the game over there were about 8 divisions in Northern Australia holding Tennant Creek and in reserve up to Darwin – all told about 250,000 men. Additionally, strong bases were built up at Kendari, Morotai, and Biak with all the islands and locations in Western New Guinea built up in forts and with at least light garrisons. Kendari in particular is a strong fortress with lots of reserve troops (1 full division and the equivalent of 2 more). I reckoned this to be the reserve position. I also found the entire KB based here (15-20 carriers and 8 battleships…).

Western SRA – Strong air bases and air reserves built up here. Once again, like the north pacific and home islands, Steve was obviously concerned about his interior. I think this is why perhaps the Solomons and Marshalls were lost so early.

China – Bill has been moving large wings of heavy bombers in and out. He flies them in when I put a major air concentration in any location, bombs them, and then flies back to Chungking or Chengtu. Hopefully those pesky air symbols will disappear with AE.

Burma – About a half-dozen Japanese divisions deployed south of Mandalay.

Overall Perspective
Japan has lost about 10 destroyers, 1 light cruiser, and 13 subs thus far. All other fleet units are intact. Judging by the air losses thus far (6,000 planes each) I would guess that combat has not been very intense overall. The Japanese deploy some 6,000 total planes on the map with average experience of the pilots in the high 60s and many fighter groups in the 80s. Almost all the naval strike aircraft are in the high 80s and I even found some torpedo groups at 98 average experience.


< Message edited by vaned74 -- 12/8/2008 3:59:30 AM >

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 2
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/8/2008 3:57:24 AM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		Economy Overview
 
Supply 3,200,000 tons
Fuel 3,700,000 tons
Oil 3,150,000 tons
Resources 1,720,000 tons
Heavy Industry 12,800 centers (1,240,000 points saved)
Armament – 600 centers (74,000 points saved)
Vehicles – 100 centers (300 points saved)
Engines – 3,122 factories
Aircraft Assembly – 2,197
 
Aircraft Pools (key aircraft only)
            Jack 577
            A6M3a 351
            Tojo 264
            Tony 101
            Judy 250
            Kate 509
            Jill 213
            G4M1 601
            Helen 388
            Liz 116
            Other fighters (over 2,200 A6M2) – 4,450
            Other dive bombers – 800
            Other level bombers – 900
            Transports – 350 (including 102 H6K2-L)
            Recon 300 (including 200 Dinah-II)
            Floatplanes 800+ (200 Jakes, 180 Glens – don’t think I need anymore Glens…)
           
Engine Pools –
            Mitsubish 2,701 engines stored
            Nakajima 2,469 engines stored
            Kawasaki 2,687 engines stored
            Aichi 529 engines stored
            Nissan 2,963 engines stored
 
General Comments
Let’s see – that’s 11 months of oil reserves and 4 months of heavy industry reserves.  Add to that 74,000 armament points (equivalent to 450,000 heavy industry points); about 1,000 aircraft that are ‘late war’ usable (a further 40,000 hi points equivalent) and 11,000 engines (about another 200,000 hi points worth) and we’re showing Japan with about 18 months of equivalent industry reserve already stocked in the home islands…I think this is pretty good, Steve must have taken classes from a squirrel…
 

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 3
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/8/2008 4:06:07 AM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		China, August 1 1943



Here is the situation in China. Bill has built out to max about every airfield facility in China. Level 9 airfields everywhere. Can they really have this much supply? As well a large mass of troops is in Nanchang - (about 300 miles west of Shangai). Not a good base to lose...with about 35 units showing in the general vicinity I am not sure we can win this one back.








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Post #: 4
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/9/2008 7:33:58 AM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		SITUATION REVIEW, AUGUST 9th, 1943

North Pacific, Home Islands - All quiet.

Central Pacific - All quiet. I am pretty sure the US Cv's are refitting and upgrading their fighter squadrons to Hellcats. This should take about two-three more weeks in my estimation. We have spotted several massive convoys moving between the US and Pearl Harbor. I expect an offensive in the Central Pacific in the next 60 days.

Northern Australia - About 2 weeks ago, the Aussie and US Expeditionary troops achieved a 1:1 odds result against my 4 divisions and level 9 forts in Daly Waters. At that point, we decided to fall back on Katherine (level 9 forts). Knowing Bill's carriers were away, the high command decided it was high time to leave northern Australia. KB moved into position to cover the evacuation once the land based fighters were withdrawn. Starting from 250,000 men in early June we have been gradually pulling out support troops and small combat detachments. This operation picked up pace about 10 days ago with a two divisions coming out of Darwin of the eight deployed in Australia. In the meantime, a massive evacuation fleet concentrated in Kendari with oiler support. Air transports and fighter cover were based in Timor and tenders were positioned. I expected more attempts at interdiction from Bill's land based airpower and were thus prepared for a fast transport evacuation. To this end, we concentrated 30 cruisers and 85 destroyers in six fast transport TFs based at Lautern (Timor Island) with replenishment TFs, ASW TFs, and MSW TFs. There were surprisingly no strikes and we were thus able to withdraw almost all of our troops with regular transports.

Burma – The British and Chinese begin their expected offensive. Since early June we have been "pulling the pickets" in so to speak. About 250,000 troops have stormed across the Irrawady and knocked our cover troops back 60 miles. A further force is massing about 200 miles north of Rangoon.




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RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/9/2008 10:49:14 AM   
n01487477


Posts: 4779
Joined: 2/21/2006
Status: offline 		Vaned74,
good to see another well written AAR, keep up the good work.
Looks like you are in a pretty good economic position, vehicles look a bit low though ...

Get those troops in China on the move ... anything that is above the garrison need and sitting in the backwaters is a waste.

Doesn't look like there is much of an air war going on over Burma ...

Try to anticipate a bombing run in China and hit him on the ground ... this will really get his attention.

I think your opponent must similarly have a lot up his sleeve, what are his ship losses ?
Damian

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 6
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/9/2008 8:47:59 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		August 13, 1943

East Pacific - I-170 & I-34 combine to put three torps into an empty small AP Mijer (1,330 tons). She sinks. A couple of convoys are sighted and pursued by our two wolfpacks in this region.

China - Japanese troops advanced from Hankow in Central China along the road to Ichang. A half dozen Chinese corps were thrown back. Their adjusted AV was 20% of the listed value. Perhaps the Chinese are running short of supplies in their forward lines.

Burma - As expected, our brigade from the Guards division was thoroughly mauled and forced towards Magwe. However, they bought us 4 days to recover and restore our lines at Mektila and for new troops to move north into the theater. Allied AV in Burma is estimated at something like 9,000 with the primary thrust coming from Mandalay and maybe 1,500 AV coming from Akyab towards Magwe with another 1,500 marching into Lashio.

North Australia - All of our troops are evacuated except for a small rear guard from the 14th division (less than 1,000 men). This operation costs us 4 AKs to subs & mines with one burned out hulk finally being sunk in Darwin harbor when Allied aircraft appeared for the first time over the port (50+ B25C Mitchells). Given the lack of Allied air attention to our evacuation, the portion of KB used to provide CAP for the operation sortied into the Indian Ocean to participate in Operation IO.

Operation IO - Picture attached. The portion of KB (KB North) not used in the Australian operation sortied from Java into the Indian ocean. I have suspected Bill was using the Indian Ocean convoy route between Perth and Colombo. The plan was for KB North to sortie into the North IO well west of Sabang. I encountered two AK pickets Bill had used in the Central Pacific in the last 4 weeks and suspected he was using these as magnets to draw fire from CV raids and alert his forces. Therefore, short range RO subs were previously sortied from Singapore/Batavia to scout ahead as the carriers search aircraft were put at very low range. A further KB division (KB South) moved from Northern Australia to a position 600 miles west of Exmouth. The plan was to sweep north with one division and south with the other. Emily's and CV search aircraft were all turned on at once on August 11th and the immediately found three convoys in the north and one in the south. Results to follow over the next few days.






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RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/9/2008 9:11:29 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		Hi Damian - thanks for the post.  The Allies have not lost much, neither has Japan.

I tallied ship losses thus far:

Surface and Sub Combatants
Allies - 1 BB, 1 BC, 6 CA, 8 CL, 15 DD, 3 APD, 2 DMS, 3 DM, 46 SS
Japan - 1 CL, 10 DD, 1 DE, 4 APD, 13 SS

Tankers and Oilers
Allies - 8 Oilers, 54 Tankers
Japan - 3 Oilers, 3 Tankers

Transports and Cargo Ships
Allies - 191 Freighters, 21 Transports, 2 LSTs
Japan - 62 Freighters, 35 Transports

Auxilliaries
Allies - 1 AD, 1 AGP, 5 AVD, 2 AR, 1 AS, 1 AV
Japan - 1 AD, 1 AV
 
Other Craft
Allies - 18 MSW, 5 ML, 11 PG, 6 PC, 5 SC, 30 PT
Japan - 37 MSW, 1 ML, 8 PG, 23 PC

Assessment
Obviously neither Steve nor Bill risked much.  This has been a logistics war to date.  Aircraft losses for each side are running about 6,200.  Japan's average pilot experience is in the mid 70s and I am guessing that the Allies have at least 3,000+ pilots in their pools for the US Navy, Marines, Army and the Brits.

My guess is you are right.  Bill is massing for an attack.  The questions are where?

1)  Burma - this is going to be a land war.  The British carriers and battleships as of late 1942 were in the Solomons.

2)  China - a lot of investment in airfields and it appears that many US and British aviation support units have been brought into theater.  Judging by the transport ops losses, a lot of investment is going into shipping troops and supplies over "the hump".  Nonetheless, outside of the air it will be hard for the Allies to attack vigorously on the ground in China.  Those heavy bombers consume a lot of supply.

3)  Northern Australia and the SRA - An attack here would be appreciated.  Lots of airfields and a well built up network of aviation support, supplies, and reserve troops.  Obviously Steve spent a good deal of time micromanaging here as opposed to fighting on the front lines in Burma...Part of Operation IO was to just to sweep the seas and make sure nothing funny was brewing here.

4)  Up New Guinea - this I view as the most logical.  Bases like Biak and Hollandia would be good springboards for a jump into Morotai, Weda, and the western Carolines (Palau, Ulithi, Yap...).

5)  The North Pacific - not much has been developed in the Aleutians or Alaska to support such a drive.  With NikMod and the prevalence of the bomber to get through as well as the rough weather and good forts building on the Kurile Islands, this is a good place to defend.

6)  The Central Pacific - I expect an attack here - either to Ponape-Truk or Wake-Marcus by the year's end.  These serve to shorten and protect supply routes as well as provide advance scouting and sub bases and refueling spots for the fleet.

Lastly, based on sub intelligence and the air balance numbers over Pearl I am guessing the US CVs are back on the West Coast or in Pearl Harbor refitting and reloading Hellcats and Helldivers.  I think they will be there for 2 weeks or more at least.

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 8
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/9/2008 9:15:54 PM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline 		Very nice Operation. It appears Adm. Spruance has a worthy opponent

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 9
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/9/2008 9:41:45 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		Initial Results from Operation IO

Tankers and Oilers Sunk
AO Eagle Dale (9,000 tons)
TK Herborg (6,000 tons)
TK Seirstad (10,010 tons)
TK Athelsane (8,340 tons)
TK Marpessa (6,000 tons)
TK British Loyalist (8,010 tons)
TK Merula (8,340 tons)
TK Empire MacMahon (12,010 tons)
TK Empire Lytton (12,010 tons)
TK Francol (6,000 tons)
TK Van Geen (2,000 tons)
TK JD Schreijers (2,000 tons)
TK Augustina (3,330 tons)
TK Semiramis (6,000 tons)
TK Rannah (2,000 tons)
TK Talang Akar (3,330 tons)
TK Djirak (3,330 tons)

Total: 108,310 tons

Freighters

Rhona 4,450 tons
Empire Buckler 5,000 tons
Needwood 3,200 tons
Empire Antelope 3,560 tons
Tarakan 3,730 tons
Jalarajan 4,450 tons
Gladys Moller 4,450 tons
Annalock 4,450 tons
Empire Webster 5,000 tons
Empire Strength 5,000 tons
Empire Rosaline 5,000 tons
Empire Geraint 5,000 tons
Straat Malakka 3,730 tons
Santhia 4,450 tons
Empire Miranda 5,000 tons

Total: 62,080 tons

< Message edited by vaned74 -- 12/9/2008 9:42:23 PM >

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 10
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/11/2008 4:03:19 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		August 17, 1943

East Pacific - Two I-boats continue their "picket sweep" and find AK Malaneo, a small 1,400 ton freighter sent out on a lonely duty in the frigid waters of the north pacific to "trip the alarm" if the Japanese fleet raids the West Coast supply lines again. Two torpedos are put into her, she is still afloat, but I am certain she will sink soon. The subs continue their sweep.

Central Pacific - A medium size tanker convoy (6-8) ships was sighted southeast of Truk 4 days ago moving from southern New Guinea towards the Marshalls. Guessing this was an empty convoy heading home a small sub wolfpack was sortied to the waters south of Wake. A single torpedo was put into the side of allied tanker Frank G Drum (10,680 tons) by I-154. Hopefully she will sink.

Northern Australia - The evacuation is complete, almost 250,000 troops have been pulled off with minimal loss. Allied troops close in on Darwin.

Burma - The Allies close in on and take Meiktila. Their adjusted AV was 9,000. We continue to pull back down the railroad bringing troops into Moulmein and Rangoon.

Indian Ocean - Operation IO comes to a close. A few Allied merchants struggle southward to Australia. My carriers are low on fuel and at this point will veer for home.

Operation IO. Additional ships sunk:
AKs Bantam (3,730), Matua (3,000), Empire Pintail (5,000), Empire Rowan (5,000), Empire Rother (3,000), Honolulan (3,560), Empire Derwent (3,000), Borgfred (4,450), City of Canterbury (4,450), Madura (4,450), Empire Avocet (5,000), Empire Severn (5,000). Total - 12 freighters, 49,640 tons

TKs Maersk (8,340), George G Henry (6,000), Empire Diplomat (6,000), Olivia (6,000), Empire Airman (12,010), Empire Jet (12,010), Reynolds (12,010), Soli (10,010), Falkefjell (8,340), Bishopdale (9,340), Empire Trophy (6,000), Agwiworld (10,680), Empire Pickens (12,010), Norden (10,010), Anglo Indian (8,340), Genota (8,340), Empire Gold (12,010), Empire Heritage (12,010). Total - 18 tankers, 169,460 tons.

Final tallies - 27 freighters (111,720 tons); 34 tankers (268,770 tons); 1 oiler (9,000 tons)
Grand total - 62 ships, 389,490 tons





< Message edited by vaned74 -- 12/11/2008 4:06:20 PM >

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Post #: 11
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/12/2008 2:52:03 AM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		August 19, 1943

East Pacific – I-17, while attempting to intercept a large convoy from the west coast is instead attacked by an ASW TF of 6 destroyers. She’s hit by a single Mk 9 depth charge and immediately starts heading for home.

Central Pacific – The sub wolfpack sent to intercept the US tankers returning from the Solomons attacks again. I-158 hit the J.C. Fitzsimmons, a large 14,240 ton tanker, with a single torpedo. The Frank G Drum (10,680 tons), hit by I-154 two days ago, sinks.

Indian Ocean – Shoho and Zuiho intercept Allied merchants attempting to escape south from the destruction of their parent convoy. Six freighters and two tankers are spotted – both tankers are sunk (Erling Brovig and War Arrow (both 8,000 tons)) are sunk and five of the freighters are hit by torpedos.

Burma – Japanese army forces continue to consolidate in the Moulmein area.

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 12
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/12/2008 6:51:19 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Nice work on the Raid in the IO!

Your initial comment opening the AAR about my noble opponent (Canoerebel) is well said.  I am happy to learn that other people have taken note of my mistakes!   

Keep it up and good luck!


_____________________________



Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
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(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 13
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/12/2008 10:07:44 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		August 19th to 22nd

Central Pacific – Sub and ASW action continue in the supply lines between Pearl and the Marshalls. I-160 hits TK Gulfbird with 4 torpedoes and gunfire during the night. RO-34 slams 4 torpedoes into AP Mormacdove while sister ship RO-35 puts a single torpedo into a fuel laden AO Alameda. Late in the day, RO-35 strikes again putting a torpedo into LST-353. In nearby actions, I-166 hits the limping Gulfbird with another torpedo while I-162 engages the transport Mount McKinley on the surface, hitting her with 4 shells and one torpedo. (Mormacdove – 1,660 tons, Mount McKinley – 2,670 tons, AO Alameda – 12,000 tons, TK Gulfbird – 14,240 tons all sink).

On the 21st and 22nd, Allied PB4Y Liberators are switched from bombing airfields to protecting convoys and belatedly small ASW forces are sortied from Eniwetok and Kwajalein. I-166 and I-165 sink after being caught on the surface by the Liberators and four other subs are hit but will survive. I'll trade two small subs (DUR 18) for two transports, an oiler, and a tanker anyday; but, now that the US has its 'eyes up' we'll sail home from these waters for now.

East Pacific – In the waning hours of August 19, I-39 hits the tanker SS Gulfking with two torpedoes and leaves her burning from her fuel cargo. Gulfking (12,010 tons) goes down the next day.

Burma – the SEAC army bombards Taung Gyui where remnants of one Japanese brigade, 23rd Army HQ, and an engineering regiment slowly fall back around the airfield. By the evening of the 22nd the final Ki-57-II transport takes off, leaving about 30 guns behind as the mixed Chinese and Commonwealth forces overrun the area. The massive Allied army continues to advance down the railroad towards Moulmein and Rangoon.

Indian Ocean – E13A1 Jakes from two scout cruisers and a small force of Kates continue to hammer the final stragglers from the British empire convoy bound for Australia. Two or three more freighters sink.

China – After detecting a small force of bombers in Shanghai, Bill moves in Liberators from SEAC and plasters the airfield. He misses most of the force on the ground as they are bombing Nanchang. However, 20 dive bombers are wrecked on the tarmac. There is no stopping this, Allied intelligence is effectively real time. We can try to catch his planes on the ground, but, undoubtedly, they will be moved during the Allied turn to some other base and any concentration I put up will simply be attacked from another location and torched on the ground.

Observations – obviously the sub war finally got Bill’s attention enough to respond violently. Good. The real goal is not so much sinking ships, but, making the Allies allocate aircraft, ships, and troops to a force protection posture. There’s another more sinister aspect in Witp which in a funny way kind of mimics real life, the player is forced to spend “brain time” tending to all of those little supply convoys running around the map and the countless bases and squadrons on patrol. I, at least, find the more of this tedium I have to put up with, the more likely I am to make a mistake somewhere else.


< Message edited by vaned74 -- 12/12/2008 10:12:40 PM >

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Post #: 14
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/12/2008 10:11:29 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		Hi John - thanks for the note.  Yes, your AAR is one of the ones I have been following routinely!  Well done.  I enjoy reading it and look forward to you getting your laptop up and running.  I think Steve took note and deliberately chose not to extend too far so that resources were available to concentrate on the interior.  The price is of course in my game is a more rapid Allied advance along the traditional lines.

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 15
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/12/2008 10:54:16 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I'll follow the AAR and enjoy it!  

_____________________________



Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
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(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 16
RE: LOST AT SEA - TAKE 2 - 12/14/2008 11:22:51 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		September 2, 1943 Economic Update

Supply – 3,450,000 tons
Fuel – 3,700,000 tons
Heavy Industry – 1,100,000 tons
Resources – 2,300,000 tons
Oil – 3,700,000 tons
Armaments – 69,000
Vehicles – 2,200

Growth in all numbers except heavy industry and armaments. Much of the HI factories had been turned off except for a few ones in Japan and all of those in Manchukuo/China when I took the game over. Additionally, there were lots of small 1-2 ship cargo TFs in the home islands, many partially loaded with resources and set to “do not unload”.

Now, knowing that manpower is effectively useless to Japan except as a resource point sink, Steve had figured out how to pull resources off the home islands while still producing some limited heavy industry.

If allowed to stockpile resource points in the home islands, the game engine will move them to where they are needed – for manpower and running industry. Steve was not allowing those stockpiles to build at any one base. Effectively, small task forces were picking up resources from each base every turn and depositing them in limited amounts on a few key bases where heavy industry was turned on – but just enough for consumption by sizing the AKs for unloading appropriately.

So, for example at a base like Tokyo – 280 manpower centers, 1,900 resource centers – the resource points generated each turn are not enough to run the manpower centers at the base. Thus, in a two day turn one can “save” 4,750 resources from Tokyo alone and “turn off” 280 manpower centers.

By this method, manpower production in Japan is basically cut in half – albeit at a cost of heavy industry. By further tweaks, Japan is able to run about 5,000 heavy industry per day and save about 11,000 resource points per day. The slowed heavy industry output also results in about 10,500 tons of oil saved per day. This is how Steve was able to stockpile a large “rainy day” fund of oil and resources – and resources are the limiter for Japan in CHS.

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 17
Japanese Resource Management - 12/15/2008 12:44:51 AM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		Ok, to follow up from my prior comment.

I set up a test scenario and placed 10 manpower and 100 resource centers on Etorofu and ran a few turns.

End Day 1 - 125 resources on island
End Day 2 - 150 resources on island (10 manpower centers produce using 100 resource points).

Adjusted the scenario and placed 10 manpower, 100 resource centers, 10 heavy industry and 5,000 starting oil on Etorofu.

End Day 1 - 115 resources, 4990 oil on island
End Day 2 - 130 resources, 4980 oil on island.

Thus, the production order of operations is:

1. Make manpower if resources are available.
2. Make resources and oil.
3. Run industry if sufficient oil and resources are available.

Therefore, in one day turns, one could theoretically shut off manpower production. So effectively, I now understand Steve's production strategy. He was effectively running the Japanese economy like a switch - bursting it on periodically probably at full output, at other times running it on the low setting and hording resources from even the output home islands themselves and cutting off unneeded manpower production (note in this game Japan still has 850,000 manpower stored away).

Thus, stocks of heavy industry were built up at various times to run the other factories while resources were horded. If one gets really technical and looks at the marginal costs of operations of the factories then it all makes sense. If you can't run all the industry in Japan basically full out, given that the system moves resources around without your control, it is better to turn it all off - save the resources from those turns, then turn it all on. E.g.

The basic premise is as follows:

Hypothetical Example
1000 manpower centers, 10,000 heavy industry, intrinsic production of 10,000 resource points. Ordinarily this would require 10,000 resources of imports to run.

Over 30 days - if you can only import 150,000 resources then you get 150,000 heavy industry (5,000 per day) and with manpower consume 450,000 resources. Cost = 3 resource points/heavy industry point effectively.

If you can load the intrinsic resource production in the bases, then you can actually produce more efficiently. E.g for first 15 days in 30 day period you load all the resources produce (150,000). Then you unload them on day 16. You produce half as much manpower, the same heavy industry (150,000 - just at 10,000 per day) and consume only 300,000 resources - e.g. Cost of 2 resources/heavy industry point effectively.

This is of course micromanagement to its finest...

< Message edited by vaned74 -- 12/15/2008 12:54:50 AM >

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 18
How to get the most HI bang for your Resource Dollar... - 12/15/2008 1:57:40 AM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		Continuing the theme of trying to figure out Japanese economy optimization run by Steve in the game I took over. Like why are various convoys in the home islands consist exclusively of similar sized freighters, mostly of the smaller variety?

Set up a test on Etorofu.
-280 manpower centers, 4,300 heavy industry, 1,900 resource centers (just like Tokyo)
-100,000 oil stored here so I could see when HI ran
-Placed 10 2,090 ton freighters in harbor each loaded with 2,090 resource points.

Conducted the following actions as on the table below.

Results - in a 4 day cycle for Tokyo - one can produce 3 of the 4 days and make:
12,900 heavy industry points
for a cost of 12,900 resource points exactly
with no manpower produced ever...






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(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 19
RE: How to get the most HI bang for your Resource Dolla... - 12/15/2008 5:00:38 AM   
n01487477


Posts: 4779
Joined: 2/21/2006
Status: offline 		I like having the freighters of the same size in TF's because there is no waiting at Ports while you are loading. So if you have 10K with 4K's together, the 4K are full but still waiting for the 10's to load and same for unload...

Some interesting testing you are doing ... will be interested in your final analysis, although I haven't seen anything yet which makes me want to manage my manpower usage through keeping my resources bottled up in AK's sitting in port( in the way you are doing). From what I can see this would be effective for people who are playing the end game (such as John), where they need to manage this in a more micro way and keep those resources instead of producing manpower.

Moreover, I'd rather get the full HI from producing 4/4 days and pay the manpower penalty when I'm in the black.

Japan recently was talking about burst economics http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=1965243 I haven't tried it, but if you have the infrastructure, then maybe it is worth a look.

Also may I suggest you look at WitpTracker ... it may help some to keep track of those figures for you...





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(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 20
RE: How to get the most HI bang for your Resource Dolla... - 1/1/2009 7:39:21 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		November 3, 1943 Economic Update
The game has moved along at a torrid pace and real life has hampered my ability to keep this AAR up to date.

Basic economic update for the past two months.

Supply – 3,550,000 tons
Fuel – 3,300,000 tons
Heavy Industry – 1,050,000 tons
Resources – 3,100,000 tons
Oil – 4,400,000 tons
Armaments – 64,000
Vehicles – 4,100
A goodly drop off in fuel in the past two months.  This probably coincides with continuing the trend of keeping a lot of HI shut down and several fleet operations since September.

I have continued Steve’s work at hoarding resources.  Korea has turned into a massive resource and oil supply dump.

We are basically running enough HI daily to:
1)  run naval shipyards (all merchant yards are shut down except for about 100 pts necessary to complete CVEs, Oilers, and Tankers).

2)  run about ½ of the arms factories and all the vehicle factories

3)  run about 200-300 a/c factories and all advanced engine (Nissan and Toyoda) factories.

In the meantime, we stockpile large amounts of resources and oil, this is especially going to be critical in the case of some of the arbitrary house rule changes.

(in reply to n01487477)
Post #: 21
RE: How to get the most HI bang for your Resource Dolla... - 1/1/2009 7:45:23 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		November 3, 1943 Theater Update – AUSTRALIA AND THE DEI

We successfully pulled our 250,000 troops out of Northern Australia and they have refitted in various locations in the DEI, providing a solid reserve against any future Allied incursions into this area. Most of the islands south of New Guinea have been built up to level 9 fortifications as has the western tip of New Guinea. This is likely the area we will stand and fight.

New Guinea necks down towards Hollandia-Noemfoor but as you reach the western end of the island you start to see large number of airbases on the flanks. This will allow us multi-axis attack options against the US Carriers and transport fleets. There is no rush at the moment to engage – Wewak, Aitape, and Hollandia were lost causes from the get go although I hope the Hollandia garrison will provide a little resistance.





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(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 22
RE: How to get the most HI bang for your Resource Dolla... - 1/1/2009 7:46:55 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		Already using WitP tracker! What an awesome tool!!!

(in reply to n01487477)
Post #: 23
RE: How to get the most HI bang for your Resource Dolla... - 1/1/2009 7:51:17 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		November 3, 1943 Theater Update – CENTRAL PACIFIC
 
We decided not to contest the Allies at Wake.  About 100,000 troops landed and wiped out our garrison of 25,000 troops.

We have instead focused on building up our garrisons in the Marianas.  Truk is untenable as a base due to the Allied LBA and has been largely abandoned minus infantry garrison troops.

I also expect an Allied landing at some point in Ulithi or Yap in the Carolines.  Before pressing into the Philippines or the Marianas I believe Bill will want a flanking base.  Both of these islands have had 2-3 construction battalions building defenses for about 4 months now and are just completing to level 9.  A strong garrison and a large dump of recent supplies should make for a stiff fight.

November 3, 1943 Theater Update – BURMA/SE ASIA
Bill aggressively moved a large Allied army down from Mandalay and hammered his way through my weak screen.  As opposed to being cut off in Rangoon or trekking through the jungles we simply retreated into Moulmein.  We are 100% prepped there with Corps HQ and Command HQ 100% preps as well behind level 9 forts and a river.  Our 3,000 AV will not be able to hold forever, but, it will require a great commitment of force by Bill to cross and then what?  60 miles of trails to get anywhere.

Meanwhile, we backfill and fortify many of the potential landing sites further south.   SEAC probably has the capability for a landing capable of seizing a base on the coast; but, I don’t think they have enough shipping here to bring sufficient mass to drive deeply inland against the amount of reserves we can move into place (about 2,000 AV positioned around Indo China and Malaya).

We have just about totally conceded the air to the Allies here, Bill moves 200-400 Liberators in and out of Rangoon, Mandalay, and Akyab at will and in Nikmod shooting these things down is near impossible.  So, we use flak, the occasional LRCAP when the Allies get careless about escorts, etc. to attrit a bomber here and there.
 

(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 24
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