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Early Soviet ICBM failures - 8/15/2014 2:43:57 AM   
Patmanaut


Posts: 392
Joined: 1/20/2013
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Hi

I keep making progress with my nuclear exchange scenario in 1964.
While I was test running it, I´ve seen a high rate of duds / non detonating missiles, while other "missed XX City by 190m".(SS-7 Saddler R-16, silo based ICBM.)
I´ve commented about this issue some time ago. I know these were early soviet tech missiles with a high failure rate (ask Marshall Nedelin..)
Knowing about this I´ve assigned 2 and 3 missiles to each target.
But, a 18 Megaton warhead missing a city sized target by 200yds is also considering a dud or a detonating one?

Thank you!

Saludos

P


< Message edited by Patmanaut -- 8/15/2014 3:45:47 AM >
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RE: Early Soviet ICBM failures - 8/15/2014 4:54:16 AM   
Randomizer


Posts: 1473
Joined: 6/28/2008
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I have zero issues with this and consider the situation described to be misses and/or malfunctions.

We know that there is precisely zero data on operational ICBM reliability and that failure of any one of thousands of components could result in failure of the warhead to detonate as designed.

We know that nobody ever fired an armed nuclear warhead over the poles where the relatively greater radiation in the Van Allan belts might have played havoc with sensitive or inadequately shielded electronic components.

We know that there were any number of failed missile and even warhead tests although test equipment was maintained, tweaked and adjusted in a manner that operational missiles never were or could be.

We absolutely do not know what the percentage of ineffective ICBM sorties may have been and the official numbers should be suspect because there was no way to test the system under war condition.

That famous double Minuteman shot out of Vandenburg Air Force Base took some six weeks of intensive preparation and even then the warheads were instrumented instead of live and the trajectories were towards the equator rather than the poles.

My opinion is that CMANO strikes a pretty reasonable balance particularly if misses are treated as malfunctions and see no harm in the way the model treats the ballistic missiles that I have used in scenarios or tested so far.

I see no bugs here.

-C




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(in reply to Patmanaut)
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RE: Early Soviet ICBM failures - 8/15/2014 11:16:08 AM   
warshipbuilder


Posts: 1960
Joined: 2/23/2013
From: C-eh-n-eh-d-eh
Status: offline
quote:

We know that there is precisely zero data on operational ICBM reliability/quote]

I certainly hope we never find out.

< Message edited by warshipbuilder -- 8/15/2014 12:16:46 PM >


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warshipbuilder

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(in reply to Randomizer)
Post #: 3
RE: Early Soviet ICBM failures - 8/15/2014 1:59:11 PM   
Patmanaut


Posts: 392
Joined: 1/20/2013
Status: offline
Thank you for your explanation, Randomizer.
I think I´ll leave the icbm vs target ratio as it is.
I´ll keep working on this scenario.


(in reply to warshipbuilder)
Post #: 4
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