eskuche
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Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
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Presented here roughly are the logistical concerns of the Axis for the next turn. Dotted purple is maximum line of infantry movement, solid line of infantry movement after flipping of hexes by the Kaunas pocket. Blue lines give maximum depths of panzer penetration as well as, roughly, where the rail will be at 25 hexes next turn. Spotting Model early lets us know Tyronec's intentions: Leningrad first, as with most games. There are three possible goals for the Axis turn 2, in order of importance and likelihood.
1. Convert all of the territory up to the Velikaya
2. Cross the Velikaya, with perhaps a pocket
3. Gambit to sack at Velikie Luki.
#3 was my initial guess, given the slightly weird disposition of 1 Panzer at Daugavpils, as it could be positioned up to 3 hexes to the NE. It turns out that it was used to actually attack the city, so this may be a mistake of miscalculation. We definitely want to prevent #2 and #3, the latter of which is fairly trivial. One unit west of VL will, if attacked, retreat east across the river to protect its HQ. Solving #2 requires thinking of the German psyche. In order to psychologically pass 25 hexes and risk stoppage for up to three turns, the German must needs a juicy enough pocket to warrant the full committal of forces and watch the flanks. Thus, we need to have just enough forces across the river line to prevent this. Units remaining at the southern Velikaya fort line can forestall this movement as well.
Preventing option #1 is much, much more difficult. Many players place brigades and regiments as roadblocks or speedbumps. However, unless they block mandatory hexes, they can simply be circumvented. Worse, they can usually be bumped by a further behind armor unit to allow the forward units to leapfrog. The goal then is to place these blockers at either the limit of rear units or as a defense in depth, at least in this specific situation. Another way to prevent #1 is to threaten flanks, as cutting off circulation to forward armor on turn 3 is a death sentence. They will be paralyzed for two turns, and the area they converted will flip, making the infantry advance even slower.
A different way to solve this problem is to make this flanking threat as obvious as possible. Though cavalry are hard to obtain in the North turn 2, we can make do with infantry divisions that are located just beyond the Daugava. Prime candidates are low TOE, bad morale divisions that can be railed in from elsewhere, with perhaps one or two good divisions sitting on the rough hexes. This kind of blockade will force at least 2 regiments to pocket because of the ZOC conversion rate of infantry. With enough of them, the German hex conversion is cut in half due to mandatory cautious play, delaying arrival of infantry attacks at the Velikaya until turn 5. Because this is a zero sum game, this necessitates lowering the garrison along the Velikaya, which we are completely fine with. The final tally will be about 40,000 men for 2 full turns. As we will (hopefully) see later, this will pay dividends.
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Cassino Royale: eskuche vs. tyronec v12.05 (Done) - 
). The opening looks still looks like the strong standard opening, maybe the relocating of units still caused some extra rout-outs? 
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