BryanK
Posts: 140
Joined: 8/21/2005 Status: offline
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Thanks Shaun :) I don't think I'll be able to get back to this until the end of the week when I (finally) get some vacation. In the mean time, I'm going to let PS run through until 2005 so that I have some data to work with. As an added validation, I want to start another league in like 1950 and run that one through until 2005 as well. That way it would be possible to tell if things like the ramp up in HR production is due to XML factors or small differences in the types of players PS generates in the initial draft vs. annual june drafts. At a high level, I think this shows that the game engine Shaun put together is pretty rock solid. Given the potential for interaction effects, it's really cool to see the OBP, AVG, and Runs/Game figures track as close as they do. The distributions are a little off, but that's a tricky problem to articulate, and no doubt more tough to nail down. Maybe an example would help me get across what I'm thinking. In the major leagues right now the league leader will hit about 45 HR or so, and there's about 1.2 or so players per team who will hit 20+ HR. Now to get a league leader around the 45 HR mark in PS, all the tests that I've done give me about 3 players per team that hit 20+ HR. As a result, the total number of HR hit in the league gets elevated. I'll get crackin on the additional slides as soon as I can, and hopefully have some stuff by this time next week. In the mean time, if anyone has any questions or ideas about things to test, please let me know :) Random thoughts: 1. It seems like the XML is having some effect on the numbers, but the magnitude is smaller than anticipated. 2. 3B seems to track the best, and I think I remember Shaun noting in one of the release notes that he specifically went in and tweaked the 3B totals. 3. Would it make any sense to model pitcher fatigue by year to help replicate the fact that pitchers today throw fewer innnings?
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