My problem with stats is this...

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My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 12:01:21 AM

JudgeDredd

Posts: 8573
Joined: 11/14/2003
From: Scotland
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I know they are a "guage" but they have to be taken with a pinch of salt...and here is my example...

I have two pitchers (I've got more, but use these as the example).

Pitcher 1 - IP is 5 and ERA is 5.40
Pitcher 2 - IP is 69.1 and ERA is 5.45

Now if I was to take ERA on it's own (in other words, sort by that column and use that as my basis for my pitcher, I could be mistaken by choosing Pitcher 1 because he has a better ERA...but with an IP of 5, his ERA is pretty poor...on the other hand, with an IP of 69.1 and an ERA of 5.45, then pitcher 2 has a relatively good choice.

Is this correct?

Thx

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Alba gu' brath

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RE: My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 12:06:55 AM

VanScoy

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Actually, the second guy isn't that hot. an ERA over 5 with that many innings means trouble. But, yeah, you should definitely factor in innings pitched to judge a pitcher's relative merit.

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RE: My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 12:20:31 AM

JudgeDredd

Posts: 8573
Joined: 11/14/2003
From: Scotland
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That's exactly what I mean...I don't get it.

So is the 5.45 the runs attributed to him per what? game? or out of the 69.1 innings pitched? If it's out og the IPs, then what exactly does the ERA "mean" in relation to the IP....it's 5.45 earned runs, right? But is that 5.45 earned runs out of 69.1 innings pitched? or per inning? or...

I'm lost, please help more???

Thx

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Alba gu' brath

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RE: My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 12:36:41 AM

JudgeDredd

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From: Scotland
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Don't bother....I just re-read KG Erwins post to me here http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=1144627
in which he says

quote:

Now, to calculate earned run average, here's the formula:

(Number of Earned Runs x 9) divided by (Number of Innings Pitched)

Generally speaking, this is an indicator on how effective your pitchers are.

Thx

However, I'm still a bit lost as to what the 5.45 relates to?

In my example, how do you tell which one is more likely to be better at pitching?

< Message edited by JudgeDredd -- 5/30/2006 12:41:02 AM >

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Alba gu' brath

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RE: My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 1:17:20 AM

Hard Sarge

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Joined: 10/1/2000
From: garfield hts ohio usa
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LOL
yea that is a hassle, and relief pitchers can screw it up even more
the basic idea is, that your pitcher "should" only give up 5.45 runs every 9 innings he pitches

which in a starting pitcher can look pretty bad, but that other pitcher, may be a short man, and in his 5 innings pitched, he may of been in 5-10 games, in most of those games he did well, in one game, he got hit HARD, his numbers look bad, but he is still being sent out there all the time

it is also like a batter, a guy with a 200 ave with 20 at bats, has not had enough at bats to figure anything out

sometimes, you got to go with how you feel or think, not always with the numbers

a guy who throws HARD but has bad control, may strike out the first two batters, then walk the bases full, and then strike out the last guy

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RE: My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 9:40:24 AM

JudgeDredd

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From: Scotland
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That's clear now. Cheers sarge

(felt like I was back in the army there!!)

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Alba gu' brath

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RE: My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 10:48:22 AM

motnahp

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Or....if his name happens to be Reitsma, he can strike one out, give up a couple hits, mix in a walk, and give up a couple more hits. He can turn a lead into a 2 or 3 run defecit faster than any "closer" I can remember.

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RE: My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 1:55:53 PM

captskillet

Posts: 2493
Joined: 3/1/2003
From: Louisiana & the 2007 Nat Champ LSU Fightin' Tigers
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Sarge pretty much nailed it Judge.......E.R.A. is telling you that every 9 innings this guy pitches he is giving up an AVERAGE of 5.45 EARNED runs.......make sure you understand the significance of both those bold words, esp. the 2nd one..........if you have a bad defensive team behind him (your fielders make alot of errors) he may actually give up more runs/9 inn than 5.45!

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RE: My problem with stats is this... - 5/30/2006 2:47:22 PM

JudgeDredd

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From: Scotland
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Yeah. I realise that earned runs are what the pitcher actually gives up...so error s on the field mean some high scoring going on. Giving up 5.45 runs per 9 innings isn't really acceptable...especially when the batter aren't there to pull it back either!

Maybe I'll look to get rid of him.

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Alba gu' brath

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