ColinWright
Posts: 2604
Joined: 10/13/2005 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: vahauser I personally don't have a problem with Europa 1947 as an interesting 'make-believe' hypothetical scenario. In reality, I don't think that the Germans could have won WW2. At most, maybe a 1% chance. Too many circumstances and conditions working against them. But I can put aside my 'reality hat' and play Europa 1947 as a fun 'make-believe' scenario and just enjoy myself playing the game. Here's an argument that could go on forever! I'd give them about a 20% chance. Among the more likely what-if's. 1. There is no Panzer halt order. The BEF is destroyed and Britain agrees to a negotiated peace (this would have been more likely than has subsequently been made out). Alternatively, the BEF is destroyed and the Germans mount a successful invasion of Britain. 2. It's my belief that the Soviet Union almost collapsed in 1941 -- particularly in early October, things were really coming apart at the seams. Obviously, there are several ways that collapse could have become complete. No German August pause, no German turn to the south, the fall rains not arriving unusually early. 3. Another key really is things developing in such a way that America never enters the war. Like, if Britain exits in 1940, or if the United States has a president that is less determinedly interventionist than Roosevelt. Say Huey Long isn't assassinated and executes his plan to be in the White House by 1940. However, if I was going to concoct a what-if along the lines of Europa 1947, the time-line would go more as follows. 1. The Western Allies decide on a 1943 landing in France. D-Day happens on June 6th, 1943. 2. The Germans cancel Citadel. Go over to Manstein's 'backhand' strategy for the summer of 1943. 3. Full-strength panzer divisions, a Luftwaffe still able to dispute control of the skies, etc go west and smash the Allies back into the sea. Meanwhile, the Russians surge forward in the east -- but the Germans are trading space for time. 4. Sometime in August. Manstein executes his 'backhand.' Catastrophic Russian losses. 5. Things don't go much of anywhere in 1944. Everyone's too beaten up. 6. We have 'the assault on Fortress Europe' for 1945. Probabilities aside, it's a hypothetical more to my taste, as everything is still close enough to the historical TO&E's that the units, forces, etc have a certain plausibility. 7. Come to think of it, the 1943 scenario sounds like a lot of fun as well.
< Message edited by ColinWright -- 4/9/2009 7:48:13 AM >
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