treespider
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quote:
ORIGINAL: jwilkerson
Actually strategic logistics will be a bit different - the biggest difference for the Japanese side is the increase in the amount of resources that will need to be brought back to the home islands. As one of the primary "instigators" of this change, perhaps Tree can elaborate further on how this works.
The following is an extract from one of the design discussions. Most of the AE game figures cited are from AE as it stood at the time of this discussion. Those figures have since changed-
quote:
PROBLEM:
In stock WitP the shipping demands placed on the Japanese Merchant fleet are significantly lower than the historical demands. (95% of the historic Japanese merchant fleet and capacity is represented in the game.)
FACTUAL BASIS FOR PROBLEM:
Historically in the Japanese imported many more metric tons of resources than required by the game.
Real life resource imports by year:
1940 – 22.0 million tons
1941 – 20.0 million tons
1942 – 19.4 million tons
Game Requirements
AE Scenario - 4.2 million tons (at that point in development this has since been changed)
Stock - 2.8 million tons
At this point in AE's development the AE scenario which was similar to the STOCK game there were 56730 resource centers that produce a total of 20.7 million points of resources in a given year. The majority of these resources are located either in Japan or areas the Japanese never conquered. A rough estimation places 8 million resources in the areas the Japanese conquered each year.
In the AE Scenario at that point in its development Japan itself produced 2.2 million resources per year and its industry only demanded 6.4 million resources, a difference of 4.2 million resources (In STOCK the difference is actually lower at 2.8 million).
Therefore Japanese merchant shipping was only required in the AE scenario to move 4.2 million points when in history they moved 20 million points – a fivefold difference. The Japanese were unable to import everything that their industry required.
An evaluation of historic statistical data has revealed that at least 515 million resources were produced on the area covered by the AE map ...and this does not include the US, Canada or the USSR.
EFFECTS OF PROBLEM:
(1) There was no need for the Japanese to produce merchant ships because the historical demand on them is not present, which allows production historically used on merchant ships to be used for other purposes.
(2) Reduced use of merchant fleet allowed for increased operational flexibility due to increased availability merchant ships.
(3) Reduced use of merchant ships allowed for increased operational flexibility because the merchants ships in game require less of the fuel supply.
SOLUTION:
Increase demand placed on Japanese merchant ships to historical levels.
MEANS OF SOLUTION:
Increase resources needed to be transported to the Home Islands to historical levels and require historical levels of consumption of these resources.
DETAILS OF SOLUTION:
Implementation of a table in the scenario editor, which exposes the multiples used for consumption requirements and outputs as they relate to Heavy Industry and Light Industry. As an example – Statistical analysis suggests that the resources required of HEAVY INDUSTRY be increased from 2 points to 15. Increase the points required of LIGHT INDUSTRY from 1 point to 20. And increase Resource Center production to 20 resources. These figures were further refined and have since changed.
Place historic resource production based on a ratio of historic data on the map as determined by available historic data.
FACTUAL BASIS of SOLUTION:
Historically the Japanese produced 85.5 million metric tons of food/ ore/ misc far more than the games 2.2 million points.
Roughly 60% of Japanese and American resources were consumed by the Civilian economy. In 1941 and 1942 the Japanese imported an additional 22 and 20 million tons of food/ore/misc.....for a total of 105.5 million tons of resources for consumption by war industry and civilians.
Data analysis suggests that the military/war effort consumed 10% of the food, 30% of textiles, 50% of misc (rubber,cement, etc) and 40% of ores. When civilian consumption of resources is calculated from 105.5 million, c.70 million tons are consumed by the civilian economy in a year... The remaining 35 million tons are consumed by LIGHT and HEAVY industry for use in the war effort.
In the AE Scenario at that point of development Heavy Industry consumed 11080 points a day and Light Industry 6300 points per day. However this only resulted in 6.3 million points of consumption. This consumption needs to be multiplied by a factor of roughly 6-7 to reach historic consumption levels.
By applying the above multiples to HI & LI Input and Resource Center Output we begin to approach historic industry consumption levels and a 20 million point deficit is generated in the Japanese Home Island economy which would need to be offset through imports...brought in by the currently underutilized Japanese Merchant Fleet (95-99% of which is represented in the game).
Primary Sources among others:
1. Le, Manh Hung, The impact of World War II on the economy of Vietnam, 1939-45 / Singapore : Eastern Universities Press by Marshall Cavendish, 2004.
2. 1945 China yearbook. Taipei, Taiwan, China Pub. Co.; New York, Macmillan 1950
3. Cohen, Jerome Bernard, 1915- Japan's economy in war and reconstruction; Minneapolis, Univ. of Minnesota Press, 1949.
4. United States Strategic Bombing Survey. Reports. Washington, D.C. : U.S. G.P.O., 1946-
Report 36 - Coal and Metals in Japan’s War
Report 40 – Electric Power Industry of Japan
Report 42 – Japanese Wartime Standard of Living and Utilization of Manpower
Report 43 – Japanese War Production Industries
Report 48 – Japanese Merchant Shipbuilding
Report 53 – The Effects of Strategic Bombing on Japan’s War Economy
- Including:
- Appendix A: US Economic Intelligence on Japan
- Appendix B: Gross National Product on Japan and its components
- Appendix C: Statistical Sources
Report 54 – The War against Japanese Transportation
5. Segers, W. A. I. M. Changing Economy in Indonesia, Volume 8, Manufacturing industry, 1870-1942 / Amsterdam : Royal Tropical Institute, 1988.
7. The industrialization of Japan and Manchukuo, 1930-1940 / edited by E.B. Schumpeter. London ; New York : Routledge, 2000.
8. League of Nations. Economic, Financial, and Transit Dept. Annuaire statistique de la Société des Nations Statistical year-book of the League of Nations. 1941/42 w/Addendum 1942/43 Geneva.
9. Field, Frederick Vanderbilt, 1905- ed. Economic handbook of the Pacific area, Garden City, N. Y., Doubleday, Doran, 1934.
< Message edited by treespider -- 6/19/2009 9:03:59 PM >
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