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Conquering the USSR is not that hard, if you can use the Manchukuo troops without paying PPs (which, frankly, would be logical, as the reason of their presence there is to hold the line against the Soviets, should the war start). As Joe said, the Soviets are badly placed to resist an invasion (which is why it could be argued to activate the Soviets one month before the invasion, to allow the Allied player a better placement).
Economically, there are not that many reasons to invade Siberia. Apart from a few HI/LI and ressources, you get 80 Oil centers (which start damaged, on Sakhalin).
The real advantage is the number of victory points you can get, from the planes (2000 planes at game start, which are mostly outdated), some ships arriving on activation in ports which can rapidly get under fire, to a lot of LCU’s whose destruction can be engineered (several thousands of VP’s). Plus the base VP’s (Vladivostok is worth 630 to the IJ, without further building - up to 810 when built to the max).
The main problems you face are :
- the supply consumption to conduct the invasion : the Soviet forces may have slightly under average XP (except the border forts and a couple of elite units), and the ‘41 rifle squads’ firepower is weaker than the IJA squads, but they still have over 10.000 AV overall (and possibly way over that, depending on how much time you let them rest to repair the disable devices), and most of the Soviet bases start with several fort levels, as high as 9 for Vladivostok (and, again, if you wait until the Summer to attack, it can increase - even if it is a Cold Weather zone, there are many engineers). Plus, most of the combat units start with 25, 50 or 100 preparation for their current location, and few bad leaders (even more very good leaders than bad ones). So, if it is not that hard IMHO, it still takes time and a significant drain on the available troops and supply, and you may find yourself short at critical times, on every theater of operations, in late ‘42 or early ‘43.
- you can’t take too much time, as the Soviets’ replacement rates, notably for infantry but also artillery, is rather decent, which is another reason why you need to commit enough forces.
- in order to successfully invade, you have to keep the tanks, engineers and artillery you would have sent to China, thereby limiting the potential of your offensives in that theater ; if you wait until you’ve completed the conquest of China, it means you won’t attack the Soviets before Spring ‘43, thereby facing very high fort levels and a generally higher XP levels, especially amongst the air units.
- a lot of submarines will appear, and they have working torpedoes : if the Allied player manages to evacuate them, for use in the SRA or in the Pacific, the submarine threat in ‘42-‘43 just dramatically increased
- 2000 mostly out-dated planes with XP between 45 and 50 may get shot down easily and provide XP for your pilots, but it’ll take time - and the over 700 Heavy and Medium Bombers are still in range of some of your industry (and several Oil Centers). You have to field a significant portion of the IJAAF to sweep the skies of Siberia clean. Every squadron facing the Soviets is a squadron which isn’t flying over Burma/India or Australia/NG/SoPac...
So, in the end, it is possible, but one should not venture in Siberia lightly, as an afterthought. If pursuing the usual strategy of buying the best Manchukuo garrison units (tanks, artillery, the couple of high-XP infantry divisions) and pushing the air war in the skies of Burma and Oz, committing the IJAAF & IJNAF majorly, an invasion of USSR is ill-advised. But, if the goal of invading Siberia is pursued fully, the issue of the campaign is not in doubt (
And an experienced Allied player will quickly notice the lack of Manchukuo garrison units in China or other theaters, and will understand what’s going to happen. If you don’t have a house rule to activate the Soviets before the attack, you probably don’t have a rule prohibiting the use of US 4E bombers from Soviet bases either (when I look at AAR’s, those two rules usually go hand in hand). But even if you do, it may be the signal for the Allies to go on the offensive in Burma or NG early, given the drain on assets and supplies due to the Siberian campaign.
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I think I ruined the soviets.... - 
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