Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Honda

A few months ago, I saw a documentery on Discovery, I think, about a what-if scenario regarding PH. The idea was to see what would've happened if USN took the warning before the daybreak (and took it seriously) and came out to play. The conclusions were that it would've been a catstrophe for USN. The main reasons were:
1. The old doctrine that BB was the queen of the seas was still hard-coded in Kimmel and BB fleet would have probably been sent out to engage the KB
2. After being hit, US vessels would suffer much more from flooding and after sinking they would stay sunk on the ocean floor
3. USN AAA was not as deadly as later in the war

The "panel" consisted of some 10 experts, most of them veterans. This wasn't unanimous, however, one vet was very dissapointed and insisted the Japs air powere would have been blown to pieces with very little damage to US forces and that the Kates (which were that main argument of Jap superiority in the imagined conflict) were in fact crap-mobiles made of paper and their torpedos couldn't hurt US BBs
He didn't stand down, and insisted he was right till the end.
This was all from memory so don't resent if I missed something. I think I got the gist of it, though. WitP and WitP related reality have their own way of blending together very easily.

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ORIGINAL: Honda

Oh, why even bother
The conclusions were done by EXPERTS in the field. What makes them EXPERTS in the field is beyond me but it sure seems quite enough to put them in a documentary. The whole story was "what if the USN came out to play", not "what do you think wether it will come out and play". Make your own documantary. Turns out every ship ever sunk by Japs was a fluke. Was it?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Honda

A few months ago, I saw a documentery on Discovery, I think, about a what-if scenario regarding PH. The idea was to see what would've happened if USN took the warning before the daybreak (and took it seriously) and came out to play. The conclusions were that it would've been a catstrophe for USN. The main reasons were:
1. The old doctrine that BB was the queen of the seas was still hard-coded in Kimmel and BB fleet would have probably been sent out to engage the KB
2. After being hit, US vessels would suffer much more from flooding and after sinking they would stay sunk on the ocean floor
3. USN AAA was not as deadly as later in the war
..

quote:

ORIGINAL: waynec

i mentioned this last year and will toot mu own horn again this year. i wrote an alternate history of the attack on pearl harbor for a writing class. article. i agree almost anything other than what happen would have been worse.

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ORIGINAL: spence

Just for S&G I recently turned off 1st Turn Surprise/Historical First Turn just to see what happens at PH if one assumes the US forces are alerted in the nick of time.
I made assumptions that the warning arrives too late (say about 0100-0200 local) for the fleet to get up steam and clear the harbor (so they go to GQ and set Zebra but remain moored) but in time for air searches to be planned and assigned and a/c to be fuelled and armed for antiship missions and arrayed for immediate launch when a target is spotted. I did the following in the pre-turn 1 turn. I brought all PH squadrons to full strength. All bombers were assigned anti-ship missions. All PBYs were assigned 100% search at 1000 ft. I assigned all fighters to Escort with 40-60% CAP and stacked the CAP at 15000-20000 ft.

Sorry, dont have an AAR. Here's a summary of what happened:
The US CAP consisted of about 55 fighters total. It was virtually wiped out but did break through the Zeros to knock down approx 15 Val/Kates and damage an equal number. It also killed about 6-7 Zeros.
The flak at PH killed 5 Zeros and about 10 Val/Kates.

The US launched a morning raid against the KB with 3 B-17s, 13 B-18s, 5 A-20s and 11 SBDs escorted by around 35 fighters of all types. The IJN CAP was 45 Zeros. The CAP killed 25 fighters of all types plus all the A-20s, 2 B-18s and 2 SBDs. The B-18s aborted before bombing. Flak killed another 2 SBs and damaged all the other attacking bombers. Two hits with 1000 lb bombs were scored on Hiryu. The US fighters killed 7 Zeros and damaged a few more. The US bombers damaged a couple of Zeros.

A very weak US raid in the afternoon resulted in the loss of 2 fighters and 1 B-17 killed and all remaining bombers damaged (2 B-17s and 3 SBDs). One Zero was damaged and no hits scored on any IJN ship.

Ironically the raid on PH produced results for the IJN much better than I have previously experienced: 2 BBs, 1 CA and 1 DD sunk, all remaining BBs, a CL and 10 other ships with damage in the 40+s. The airfield was out of action on Dec 8th.
I did sortie some surface action TFs for the 8th and the KB, which had backed off due North to a range of 4 hexes from PH launched several 50+ bomber strikes with predictable results (I only actually ran an 8 Dec turn cause I was allowing the AI to play the IJN and I wanted to get some idea of how badly/mildly they were hurt on Dec 7th).

Also interesting was that the experience levels of every single US squadron/group at PH was 70+ on Dec 8th (excluding PBYs which I didn't check). The numbers of US a/c in the various sqdrns were depleted but not terribly so. Given an operable airfield on the 9th a credible anti-ship strike might have been put together.

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Results sound about right, i the end they were still hit by a massive well co-ordinated and well timed strike, they just lost more aircraft in the attack.

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ORIGINAL: waynec

i mentioned this last year and will toot mu own horn again this year. i wrote an alternate history of the attack on pearl harbor for a writing class. article. i agree almost anything other than what happen would have been worse.

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ORIGINAL: YankeeAirRat

The other big thing that most people miss when talking about PH is the fact that Nagumo didn't follow through with yet another strike that day. The number of alternative fiction that has been written on that missing "Third Strike" is probably enough to rival the alternative's that have been written about Gettysburg and the missing order.
If he had ordered 3rd strike the most likely targets would of been the Submarine docks and most likely the Fleet oil reserves. Which with the oil reserves destroyed or severly damaged it would of taken about another year before the intaitive would of been gained, since the oil would of had to been pumped from the fields and ports in Texas, Oklahoma, and other places over land to San Degio and Long Beach with onloading to then to tankers and AO's to be transported to PH and other places. On top of that the 3 fleet carriers would of had to retire all the way back to San Degio or Bremerton to replenish.

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ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
One HUGE error in this speculation. There is no way in Hell the US fleet could have gotten steam up to sortie even based on the earliest "sub spot" warning. So the Fleet was still going to be in PH when the Japanese airstrike arrived. The biggest difference in the units of the Fleet would be in the state of rediness. Guns fully manned and ammunition ready, all water-tight doors closed, Damage Control manned, that sort of thing. Most of the difference would be in the Ground and Air Units. Even historically, the second wave of the Japanese attack sufferred much higher casualties than the first---and that was only with what preparation could be accomplished among the chaos of the first waves assult. Even one full hour of warning would have given the Japanese a much more formidible problem.

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Mike, how long would it have taken to get the big ships steam up?