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bebsol/cal ripken sim - 3/4/2006 6:26:32 AM

Campy

Posts: 16
Joined: 1/28/2006
Status: offline

"I'm simulating Cal Ripken Jr's career by starting a new league each year and letting Puresim import players to their respective teams. I manage the Orioles each year. After each year is complete, I export the data into an Excel spreadsheet and combine all of Cal's stats."

besbol:

I think this is a great idea. I am thinking of doing the same for another player. Do you have to set the stadiums when starting your league each time or do you leave it on league average? I do find that the stadiums batters play in affect their final stats.

Congratulations on coming up with such a fine way to celebrate the career of Cal Ripken Jr. I have re-connected with some of my childhood love of the game of baseball, primarily through playing all of the era's and remembering the stories of the great players--as a child, I voraciuously read every book I could get my hands on from simple stuff like John R. Tunis all the way up to The Bronx Zoo and Ball Four.

I find that PureSim has enhanced my historical knowledge and appreciation of the game in ways that I never imagined. I have become fascinated with the WWII period and how the game of baseball was played at that time and how it had an impact on US morale.

I'm currently replaying 1941 on an ongoing basis and trying to get to know each team intimately.

Thanks for sharing this unique system. I look forward to hearing the final recap of Cal's career and how he performs in his final season. I know that you mentioned that he still beat the streak but got injured shortly thereafter...would love to hear an update and whether or not you plan on doing it again.

Post #: 1

RE: bebsol/cal ripken sim - 3/4/2006 8:23:32 AM

besbol

Posts: 14
Joined: 8/19/2005
Status: offline

Thanks Campy,

I did not load the ballparks for every year, but you may be right. It could affect his stats. I have been GMing much of the time to maximize Oriole production, mostly by skipping the #5 starters after an off day anf making the occasional trade.

I may do the whole thing again a 2nd time and set up at least the AL ballparks and see what Cal does.

I'm also a big Roberto Clemente fan and I want to see what happens had he not died in that plane crash. And, what sort of numbers might Ted Williams have had if he had not served in WW II? I'm sure there are others whose careers were cut short by injury that could be played out.

Since I won't be able to import Cal & Roberto past their actual last season, I will just keep the same teams and seed with new players for each additional year they play.

I'm also curious to see if they will call it quits at the right time or will I need to release them. In any event, I will post here when I have completed Cal's career.

(in reply to Campy)

Post #: 2

Final Cal Ripken Jr. stats - 3/22/2006 11:17:47 PM

besbol

Posts: 14
Joined: 8/19/2005
Status: offline

The Cal Ripken experiment is over. Cal had 2 subpar seasons to end his career. I did not sign him for 2004 and he decided to retire instead of opting for Free Agency even though I assured him the Orioles would sign him if he decided to play another year. I even asked him if he would like to be a player/coach but he said his time was up.
Here are his final Puresim stats which I will compare to his real stats.

Puresim Actual

Seasons 23 21
Games 3357 3001
AB 12103 11551
R 1453 1647
H 3189 3184
2B 567 603
3B 33 44
HR 345 431
RBI 1450 1695
SB 126 36
BB 1323 1129
K 1805 1305
BA .263 .276
OBP .332 .340
Fielding
PO 4357 4112
A 6655 8214
E 195 294
FPCT .983 .977

(in reply to besbol)

Post #: 3

RE: Final Cal Ripken Jr. stats - 3/23/2006 1:45:02 AM

Amaroq

Posts: 1100
Joined: 8/3/2005
From: San Diego, California
Status: offline

Re-printed using the 'code' tags to retain formatting -

         Puresim Actual
Seasons      23     21
Games      3357   3001
AB        12103  11551
R          1453   1647
H          3189   3184
2B          567    603
3B           33     44
HR          345    431
RBI        1450   1695
SB          126     36
BB         1323   1129
K          1805   1305
BA         .263   .276
OBP        .332   .340
Fielding
PO         4357   4112
A          6655   8214
E           195    294
FPCT       .983   .977

That's a really neat experiment, bebsol.

I like how close PureSim came to re-creating his stats in many areas - hits, doubles, and triples all look to be within an acceptable margin of error to me, as do BA and OBP.

Its also interesting to see the increase in strikeouts (38%) and walks (17%) - that, combined with the reduction in assists (19% fewer, for a shortstop?) makes me wonder if PureSim batters as a whole make contact less frequently than their real world counterparts. If so, does the problem lie in the engine, the importer, or the pitcher usage model?

There are also fewer Runs, Home Runs, and RBI, all told - hard to say if that's a park effect for the ballparks in your association, a result of the less-contact side of things, or something else.

The dramatic difference in Stolen Bases (3.5 times more) seems to indicate that that remains a source of problem for real players.

(in reply to besbol)

Post #: 4

RE: Final Cal Ripken Jr. stats - 3/30/2006 5:40:10 PM

besbol

Posts: 14
Joined: 8/19/2005
Status: offline

I agree that the SB's are out of whack. Most of Cal's came early in his career. Some things that may affect this number are noted. There is less "small ball" played in the AL due to having a DH Some managers detest the SB. Earl Weaver loved the 3 run HR and seldom called for steals.
In honor of Kirby Puckett. I've done a career replay of Kirby starting in 1984 and ending in 2000 when he was an unsigned free agent. I did not re-import players every year for this. Interestingly, the stats are skewed about the same as if I did do a re-import every year. This seems to indicate that the aging formulas are coinciding well with real-life aging.
Since Cal is also playing during this same simulation, so I am going to continue this until Cal retires. I can then compare his stats in this sim with my original Cal sim.
Here are some notable gems from his career.

He did not play for Minnesota after 1987, as he opted for free agency
Voted into the Hall of Fame in 2000
1 gold glove
Led the league in hits 4 times
Led the league in SB and Runs once
Played 16 years
At the time of his retirement he was 7th in career runs, 1st in hits, third in 2B, 9th in 3B.

Hits - 2760
2B - 497
3B - 66
HR - 151 (lower than real life)
SB - 494 (much higher than real life)
RBI - 1009 (a bit low, probably due to fewer HR's)
BB - 811 (higher than real life)
SO - 1449 (about 40% higher)
BA - .288 (real life was .318)

(in reply to Amaroq)

Post #: 5

RE: Final Cal Ripken Jr. stats - 3/30/2006 7:49:23 PM

SirWolf1960

Posts: 124
Joined: 8/20/2005
Status: offline

You mention that Kirby's hr numbers are low. I wonder how much that might have to do with the fact that in your league, he left the Twins.

Did he move to a less hitter friendly park?

(in reply to besbol)

Post #: 6

RE: Final Cal Ripken Jr. stats - 3/30/2006 9:23:33 PM

besbol

Posts: 14
Joined: 8/19/2005
Status: offline

SirWolf,

Park Factor could have some effect.
Baseballreference.com lists park factor for each team by yr.
The Metrodome was the most friendly of all that he played in but he hit 47 of his 207 puresim homers in his last 4 yrs of his 16 yr puresim career. Kirby hit only 19 of his homers while with the Twins. In real life, Kirby hit 87 Hr his 1st 5 yrs.
Here is where he played in puresim. I believe his puresim development has more to do with the randomness of puresim potential. Kirby in real life jumped from 4 HR in 85 to 31 in 86, even though he was a full time player both years. If I had re-imported players every year and did a spreadsheet, his HR numbers might be more accurate. I still believe the biggest replay problems are higher SB's SO & BB, lower BA's. At least for modern era players.
In this same sim Bonds hit 103 Hr's in 2001. He was MVP, Triple Crown winner while with Houston! His Power, contact and eye were all at 100!

yrs Team Park Factor
84-88 Twins 105
89-90 Tigers 98
91-94 Padres 103
95-97 Giants 96
98 Mariners 100
99 Yankees 91

(in reply to SirWolf1960)

Post #: 7