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A7m2 reppu entry date

 
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A7m2 reppu entry date - 6/29/2006 10:45:24 AM   
Sneer


Posts: 2654
Joined: 10/29/2003
Status: offline 		Hi
just few thoughts about A7m2
in game they are available at 7/45
yesterday i found data that mass production was prepared for 4/45 and it was B29 bombardments in 12/44 that caused delay as both engine and airframe factory was destroyed

argument can be discussed of course but - what if Japanese player is not under heavy bombardment in late 44 ???

earlier date for A7ms will not change the course of war
for many players it will be mine to see at least some good toys
especially there was no mass production in 7/45 - japan have no factories for it and only 10 prototypes were active so 7/45 is only assumption

just 2 cents ....



< Message edited by Sneer -- 6/29/2006 10:47:46 AM >

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RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 6/29/2006 12:22:00 PM   
el cid again

 

Posts: 16922
Joined: 10/10/2005
Status: offline 		In all RHS scenarios the A7M2 is available in February 1945.
RHS entry dates are generally LATER than either CHS or stock - but they are not arbitrary. If possible, entry dates are the date of the first operational mission. For types (like this one) that were not operational,
one of two other benchmarks is used:

a) If possible, the date of first standard (not pre) production - plus two months;
b) If a is not possible, the date of first flight of a prototype - plus four months.

The two months and four months are taken from the best case for Japan during the war. This is thought to represent what might be possible "if all goes well." Lots of things may prevent it happening in the game - including your bomber raids. But it is the standard. FYI the best case for case (a) above belongs to the H8K1 flying boats - which managed an operational combat sortee (over Pearl Harbor no less) two months after the date of regular production! There were several cases of initial production within two months of first flight.

Anyway, that is my two cents worth: I think your reasoning is sound - and while I (strongly) oppose early entry dates - for late war types never operational - something needs to be done. IMHO that something ONLY makes sense if one assumes a better than history situation: if it is much worse than history Japan will already have surrendered - and if it is the same - Japan won't get these planes - if only because there are no factories to make them and no resources to feed the factories that would make them if they were undamaged. But IF one assumes Japan set up a successful autarky (local economy in East Asia) - and defended this area using its interior lines (sort of a Fredrick the Great strategy at sea) - then what might Japan be able to make? That is the question the game poses - in my view. I am quite strict too - I don't go for planes any time you want them for fun. I look at the technology - and figure out how long it might take to get operational from some real benchmark date - or a reasonable estimate of one. So while RHS dates are best case for Japan, I regard them as reasonable and realistic best case dates.

(in reply to Sneer)
Post #: 2
RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 6/29/2006 12:29:32 PM   
Sneer


Posts: 2654
Joined: 10/29/2003
Status: offline 		so it is even faster than i thought
but it is true
if Japan goes worse than in history it will be unable to produse them
otherwise - why not


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RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 6/29/2006 10:36:07 PM   
Lemurs!


Posts: 788
Joined: 6/1/2004
Status: offline 		At the time i started the Lemurs mod i was being accused of being a Jap fanboy for my increases to the N1K2 and Ki84, thus i was cautious about moving the Reppu forward much.

Mike


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RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 6/30/2006 10:31:42 AM   
Sneer


Posts: 2654
Joined: 10/29/2003
Status: offline 		accusing of being fanboy against facts ???
apples to plums
not an argument

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RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 6/30/2006 5:32:16 PM   
Lemurs!


Posts: 788
Joined: 6/1/2004
Status: offline 		The problem is the lack of facts, we can say 4/45 or whatever but it is mostly educated guess work with a few snippets of supporting evidence frompost war interviews. The post war interviews are certainly important but sometimes chock full of innacuracies.

Anyway, Andrew and I spoke about this and the date will probably be moved up.
It is the problem with simulating history. If there had been no war when could X havebeen built??

Mike


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RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 6/30/2006 6:46:16 PM   
TheElf


Posts: 3870
Joined: 5/14/2003
From: Pax River, MD
Status: offline 		If someone has supportable data that shows a potential planned production date and can support a real world event that affected that planned production date positively or negatively. And can illustrate how that event MIGHT NOT happen in a given game, then we will consider making the appropriate adjustment.

If you can provide references please do so...

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RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 7/1/2006 2:01:17 PM   
Sneer


Posts: 2654
Joined: 10/29/2003
Status: offline 		source is aviation magazine which unfortunately was left in office - will try to contact with author of article.
this magazine concentrate on giving detail construction histoty of planes


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RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 7/1/2006 2:26:51 PM   
el cid again

 

Posts: 16922
Joined: 10/10/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TheElf

If someone has supportable data that shows a potential planned production date and can support a real world event that affected that planned production date positively or negatively. And can illustrate how that event MIGHT NOT happen in a given game, then we will consider making the appropriate adjustment.

If you can provide references please do so...


I just use Francillon. It is best to have a UNIFORM standard for data - and so his data on things like first flight, etc are quite good - even if occasionally someone thinks he got this or that value converted wrong.
No one ever disputes his dates. Now what you DO with data like that is a different question: whatever you do I recommend you make it a UNIFORM rule for ALL planes.

Clearly this is a sub case: IF you have an operational date for a plane - use that. But for planes that were not operational, some other rule should be coined. I felt the simple "best case scenario" was simply to use the HISTORICAL best case for wartime Japan - and I came up with two different rules since we have cases where we know when the plane began (or could have begun) serial production and other cases when we know when the plane actually flew (or could have flown) in a pre-production configuration. If you go the other way - and use the WORST case data - well there are lots of planes that NEVER made it to operational - so just forget the whole exercise. I figure that Japan will have to do pretty well to have factories undamaged and resources IN JAPAN to make things from in 1945. Any bad situation in any game = no planes. So it is a very rare thing the plane will be made at all. We can assume a bad case - but then why put the plane in the game at all? Putting it in means we are ASSUMING a best case was possible. So I used the best case data. There are instances in Francillon of planes entering serial production within two months of first flight. There are also instances of planes on operational missions within two months of serial production. [Date of "production" is the date a plane is completed - a non-trivial definition since some planes took many weeks to build - and how long is not easy to define for any plane - if you must include every order for every subassembly from every subcontractor]. I have a lot more problems with planes being operational on the first day they are produced - a normal case in CHS and stock - or even BEFORE they are produced - by up to a year! Allowing a plane four months after first flight - or two months after first production - is not too far fetched IMHO. But surely there are many planes that didn't achieve such feats - which is why I prefer actual operational dates when available.

(in reply to TheElf)
Post #: 9
RE: A7m2 reppu entry date - 7/3/2006 10:38:31 AM   
Sneer


Posts: 2654
Joined: 10/29/2003
Status: offline 		i did sent email tyo author of article - maybe we will get good source in return

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