fenrrris
Posts: 5
Joined: 7/1/2006
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So I've been replaying from 1953 forward with historical players and historical expansions and I'm a little confused on one point. On a hunch, several years earlier, that something was wrong with the standings I worked out my own team's (the Brooklyn Dodgers) expected wins and losses with the pythagorean win formula: Win Percentage=Runs Scored*Runs Scored/(Runs Scored*Runs Scored+Runs Allowed*Runs Allowed) The formula bore out an accurate result and I passed it over. However, I couldn't shake my suspicions and (about three years further into the league) I ran the formula on both myself and a few opponents with a slightly surprising result: the wins were, again, accurate for me, but wholly inaccurate for my primary competitor, the Milwaukee Braves. The Braves have scored 477 runs and allowed 372. 477*477=227529. 372*372=138384. 227529+138384=365913. 227529/365913=.622. The Milwaukee Braves are the owners of a 67-30 record (a win percentage of almost .700) and lead my Dodgers (our 638 runs scored to 449 runs allowed when run through the formula gives a winning percentage of .668, while our win percentage is .670 on the nose) by two games. A win-loss percentage higher than that projected by the pythagorean win formula is generally attributed to luck, and I was under the impression that it was generally impossible for fortune to provide a team with such an incredible boost. So I'm trying to figure out which Olympian god joined the Braves. I know the formula is meant to approximate full season results, but 80 percentage points is a hell of a disparity, even for a shaky theoretical formula. I'll run the season through and check again, but I just wanted to post and see if anyone had any thoughts as to how a team could possibly be THAT lucky. Have I got the formula wrong? Is there an historical precedent for this sort of disparity?
Edit: I finished the season up and here are the results: The Dodgers finished off with a win percentage of .667 scoring 1101 runs and allowing 780. By my figures that's an expected win percentage of .665 and everything is in order. The Braves did drop off and finished well below the Dodgers, but they managed to sustain a win percentage significantly better than that indicated by the formula. Scoring 775 runs and allowing 683, the Braves expected percentage is .562, while they actually held a .611 win percentage at the end of the season. Again, maybe there is a precedent here but it just seems out of whack to me.
< Message edited by fenrrris -- 7/6/2006 6:11:18 AM >
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Pythagorean Wins Conundrum - 
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