AmiralLaurent
Posts: 3351
Joined: 3/11/2003 From: Near Paris, France Status: offline
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Thanks to all advisors All of you agree that my primary goal should be to kill troops. It is also one of my goal, but remember that my opponent can save cadres and rebuild units in rear aera. I don’t kow if he is doing it, but I have no problem with it, except doing it with Dutch or PI units (from where come the men in this case). So destroying these 3 divisions will just put them out of the war for 6-12 months, and give me about 3000 points. Australia has a lot of troops for sure, but how many will still be in SE Australia is another matter. Even with the railroad from NW Australia linking it to the rest of the world, all troops here will take 2 months to arrive in Sidney or Melbourne. On the other hand, taking an Australian city means to wreck half of the HI, and also possibly a good part of the resources and so on, reducing the ability of Allied forces to wage war from here. Also the KB cruising on Australian shores may score around 500 strategic points a day. The future as I saw it will be the following: _ First, the end of the NZ campaign. I hope it will over by mid January 1943. _ Then the 56th Bde, 1 Eng Rgt and Naval Units will keep NZ. That will leave 8 Inf Div, 1 Tk Div, 1 Bde, 2 Tk Rgt and 5 Eng Rgt to be used elsewhere. They will receive orders to prepare for the following targets: Noumea 5 Inf Div, 3 Eng Rgt, all Tk units. Luganville: 2 Div, 1 Eng Rgt. Efate: 1 Div, 1 Eng Rgt. _ Then the KB will raid the Australian coast in late January. The idea is to bomb industry and resource centers and to recon each city to have an idea of their defence. _ It will return to NZ and then sail back to Australia with transports carrying all units preparing for Luganville and Efate, and all Tk units available in NZ. This will a Viking-like raid… If it seems easy, these troops will land and kill/devastate what they can find, still with KB support, but by end February they will sail back to NZ and leave Australia. _ In mid-March, the fleet will be OK in Auckland and will load all troops that prepared for Noumea. These will land in Koumac and La Foa, take these bases, and then lay siege to Noumea. The KB will first support this operation, then once that both other bases will be operational (and full of LBA) and Noumea under siege, will sail north (raiding Luganville and Efate on the way) for the spring 1943 upgrade in Japan. _ If Japanese troops were not engaged in Australia, or were still nearly at full strength, Luganville will be invaded at the same time than New Caledonia. _ In April-May, once Noumea will have been taken, Efate and Luganville will be invaded. Only LBA and surface ships will support it. And at least half of the troops And this will mark the end of the offensive Japanese operations (if I manage to apply this plan to the end). Veij and Goodboy, you ask good questions about what my opponent is doing or can do. AFAIK, he concentrated much of his fleet on the West Coast for the counter invasion of Hawaii during the summer, including British ships, and no big ship movements have been reported from there towards Australia after this battle. In the Indian Ocean, Japanese submarines saw nothing for months, the last move seen was a big transport convoy sailing from India to Australia. It was attacked by Japanese forces and was apparently empty. My understanding is that my opponent didn’t keep much ships in India as he has no use for them. Japanese intelligence had reported several times hundred of ships in Australian ports, and I believe many transports and small warships are here, but they have no or few troops to carry outside Australia, as most Australian units will require PP to be shipped overseas. And my opponent is paying PPs to avoid sending back British ships. As for troops, the counter invasion of Hawaii included a Div and 3 RCT, at least one of them was coming from the Aleutians I think. At least until July 1942, my guess is that my opponent first goal was to take back PH (as I suppose it would be… American prestige may be one of the reasons). So until this date I doubt he changed the command of his HQ (that is the way to have troops turning up in Karachi rather than in America if I remember correctly) and so India didn’t receive more reinforcements than usual. Then I agree that until mid-43 (where the Allied CV fleet will be able to beat the Kido Butai) Burma is the main place where the Allied forces may advance. For me, Aleutians or Midway came next, an advance in Timor area or around New Guinea-Solomons seems unlikely for, especially if I am attacking at the same time Australia behind the attacking forces. Now in mid-1943, I will have a Kido Butai (reinforced by the first Unryu CV) at full strength, and an Army of 5 Div and 1 Tk Div (I will leave only one Div in Noumea area, will send one to Hawaii and one to Burma) as a reaction force. If my opponent attacks in force in Burma, I think this force will be able to stop it. And in mid-May 1943 I will receive 3-4 more Div and half a dozen Bdes usable where I will need them, to man the second line of defence. I will also receive at the same time 3-4 Div in China, and will use them to launch a new offensive. Also in the meantime I will have enough PP to buy two more Div from China, and will very probably do it. I will then send one to Burma and the other to the DEI. Now here is a survey of the current front areas: China: The Allied supply in China is very probably very bad. RAF units are flying from Northern China bases, but only with fighters, and only because Sining is producing ‘bonus’ supply each turn. It is probably the part of China where Allied forces have the more supplies. Other bases have not seen an Allied aircraft for months, and Allied offensive capacities are probably extremely limited. By the way all cities under Japanese control have fort level 9 and 1 or 2 divisions holding them if they are on the frontline, so can’t be taken by a Chinese raid. And most Chinese cities are reconned daily, so I have a good idea of the disposition of Chinese forces. Burma: The most vulnerable spot is Akyab, that is held by a Div and has fort 4 (due to incessant Allied bombings). The rest of the bases of the country have fort between 6 (Pagan, Lashio) to 9 (Mandalay, Myitkyina) and is held by 1 Div, 2 Mixed Bde, 1 Mixed Rgt, 5 Tk Rgt and a score of Naval Units. Rangoon is the only place Japanese airmen may defend and has 246 fighters and 50 Nells. The Div is in reserve here, the city has fort 8 and a naval squadron (2 CA, 1 CL, 6 DD) is also there. Japanese units are in the jungle on all possible approaches by land so any Allied move will be detected two months before it reaches a Japanese base. An attack by sea is always possible, but without CV and BB will be costly. In reserve in Singapore and Java, ready to react towards Burma or Timor, are 2 BB, 6 CA, 1 CL and 80 Betties/Nells, and several IJAAF bomber Daitais. Andaman Island is lightly held (by a BF and a Const Bn. 36 ASS, fort 5). Bases in Sumatra and the coast from Rangoon to Singapore are also held by comparable or bigger forces, as are all inland bases in Burma and Thailand (to prevent an easy Allied parachute attack). Anyway, land forces in Burma are probably too light and the 17th division will be shipped from China after the fall of Kweilin (another Division of the Burma Army will be created in mid-March in Shangai). In the mean time Andaman Island will be reinforced by a Naval Guard unit, and an Eng Rgt currently in Rangoon will be air carried to Akyab to help build forts here. DEI: Java is held by the Imperial Guard Div and the 35th Bde. The latter will be moved to Palembang. All bases of Java and Sumatra are held by small BF (at least) that build (slowly) forts and have 35-40 ASS points (and are 100% prepared for the bases). Such BF also held the bases of Bali and Maumere between Java and Timor. In the rear area, all big bases have over 100 ASS and fort between 6 and 9. Timor-Amboina Kendari is another hub of the Japanese air force and now has 197 fighters and 45 bombers and is held by the 4th Bde. It is the only place well held in the area. Timor has been bombed daily since it fell and the only place with some defence is Koepang (90 ASS, fort 1). Kai Island, Aru Island, Babo, Bulla are empty, Amboina and Sorong held by Base Forces. But several Naval units are available in Menado and now that the Allied air pressure is lower will move forward to reinforce Amboina and Timor. Once Kweilin will be Japanese the 104th division will be bought from the China Command and sent there. 2/3 of it will hold Kendari and 1/3 Amboina, freeing the 4th Bde that will be sent to Koepang or to Java. New Guinea-Solomons The “forgotten” theater. Truk and Rabaul (held by the 5th Div) are the only Japanese big places. In the whole area are now only 36 Tonies and 9 Betties. On the other hand Japanese BF and Const Bn are already busy on the northern coast of NG, and Hollandia has AF 5 and fort 5. No change planned here, except units leaving Truk to defend bases in Solomons. Southern Pacific All main islands (Tarawa, Pago-Pago, Suva, Nandi, Canton) have fort between 7 and 9 and are defended by a total of 1500 ASS points (the South Detachment and naval units). And an Allied offensive is unlikely so far from Allied bases for the moment. Some naval units will be moved to Central Pacific, and other will be redispatched in the area. All Eng and Const units in the area will soon be available to go to Solomons-New Guinea. Central Pacific Christmas Island has only a Const Bn and a part of a BF (ASS 4) and fort 5. A Bf is sailing to this island and a reinforced SnLF will come from the south. Same situation in Palmyra, but here there is a full BF (ASS 36) and fort 9. ML from PH came to these tow islands and both have more than 1000 mines. In Hawaii, the plan is to defend four bases: PH: 1275 ASS (including 2 Div), fort 9, 21k mines Lahaina: 200 ASS, fort 9, 20k mines Hilo : 200 ASS, fort 8, 6k mines Kona: 150 ASS, fort 5, 2k mines The two other islands have around 2000 mines each but are empty. 27 A6M3a and 89 betties are based in PH, with the only capital ship being the old BB Yamashiro. Around 25 submarines are based here and at least half of them are keeping an eye on the West Coast to warm of another Allied invasion. Midway has fort 9, ASS 35 (a BF and a CD unit), but a Naval Guard Unit is en route. 2k mines (laid by ML from PH), 16 Betties flying naval search. Wake, Johnston and Marcus Island are all held The Central Pacific area is mainly lacking fighters, but they are busy elsewhere (3 Zero Daitais left PH last month). The main reinforcements that will come in the near future will be Naval Guard units from Southern Pacific, and the 22nd Bde that will be shipped from China to Midway after the fall of Kweilin. Kuriles The only Japanese base here is Paramushiro Jima that has been reinforced since several months and has 384 ASS, fort 7 (and an Eng Rgt working) and AF 3. Small troops will be carried by barges in the near future to occupy Attu and Kiska, just to keep an eye on Allied moves. Mavis recon them daily and never saw any Allied troop or ship in the area, the closest Allied base is Adak. Japan Forces available to defend Japan and Sakhalin are 3 Div, 2 Bde, 2 Tk Rgt, 3 BB (2 with SYS around 30), 1 CA, 36 Ki-61, 60 Nates, 22 Rufes, 40 LB and training units (with exp > 45). Not much but an Allied attack is unlikely and in case of a raid Japanese fighters and bombers will come en masse from China.
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