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RE: Realistic Numbers?

 
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RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 2:25:34 AM   
spruce

 

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Mr Mike Scholl, I don't know what you've been smoking, but I don't like your attitude at all.

First of all, I don't have to show a single example to you - because the guys of WCS have designed this game and dedicated many hours of their precious time to come up with a nice game. And historical correct imho.

Second, if you would reply directly to the game dev's, you might get a more focused discussion, if you claim you know all about Erics remarks - which I fully support - just reply to his words directly ... and stop insinuating that I'm making claims out of the blue. If you want to change the game - concinve Eric, not me.

Third, I'm not even a US citizen, I'm not a specialist on the matter, but from what I've seen I think the guys at WCS are right =

the point is that stragglers, casualties, deserters, routed - and out of command units take a toll on your battle ready figure ... it's not that the battle report in Fof only displays dead guys, they are the sum of a whole list of stuff... so it's dangerous to compare to the wrong things here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Brice's_Crossroads
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Manassas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chancellorsville

by the way - after playing MMG game "Take command 2'nd Manassas" I feel comfortable with the current way it is. If you play f.e. Jackson or Longstreet corps - you can dislodge many many Union regiments during such a battle - and still not really have the enemy surrendered. But these dislodged units will either run for their life and leave behind many wounded - some of the regiments might even surrender - and for sure the commanding brigade general can not bring back all his panicked regiments to command. That's something that the victorious party has the edge on.

F.e. during the battle of Chancelorsville, Jacksons corps blasted away the Union XI corps, it was not so that all of those Union soldiers (11.000 in the corps) got killed, no many got captured and the rest routed in the panick. But in Fof these losses would be modeled by means of "casualties" cause those running guys are not really part of the army anymore and need to be brought back into line afterwards - camps are used for that ...

< Message edited by spruce -- 11/20/2006 3:08:20 AM >

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 31
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 2:55:03 AM   
Riva Ridge

 

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First, really looking forward to this game.  There has been a real lack of operational-strategic Civil War games out there (at least any that were any good) and this ought to fit the bill nicely.

My two cents is that I do agree with the crowd that is concerend about the lopsided losses in the historical game.  I believe that even the most cursory look at the historical outcomes of battles will see that both sides suffered significantly and it does not SEEM from the AARs that outcome is modeled.  Now, I am not a beta-tester so my opinion is quite uninformed, but I do know my civil war history.  That being said, I am not expecting a absolutely rigid adherence to historical outcomes and it does seem that the supply model being used is robust and is a realistic limiting factor.  Also, I fully intend to buy the game, even if released with the particular model being used.  I would just ask that the designers consider considering the opinions expressed here and add in a bit more fidelity on the casualty side of things. 

Otherwise, game on and looking forward to playing!

C

(in reply to spruce)
Post #: 32
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 3:10:27 AM   
Mike Scholl

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: spruce

Mr Mike Scholl, I don't know what you've been smoking, but I don't like your attitude at all. Tobacco..., and my attitude is that of a serious historian. Your like or dislike is immaterial to the discussion

First of all, I don't have to show a single example to you - because the guys of WCS have designed this game and dedicated many hours of their precious time to come up with a nice game. I support their approach fully. So I would like you to show examples of battles with no wounded, deserting, captured, routed, out of command units. I think you should reconsider before you start to inflate on the matter.
No, you don't have to show me a single historic example. But if you can't, you should not expect to be taken seriously. And there is no such thing as a "battle with no wounded, deserting, captured" or routed units. They are generally listed in the Casualty Lists as "missing", (As in Killed, Wounded, and Missing) and are part of the casualty numbers I'm refering to

Second, if you would reply directly to the game dev's, you might get a more focused discussion, if you claim you know all about Erics remarks - which I fully support - just reply to his words directly ... and stop insinuating that I'm making claims out of the blue. If you want to change the game - concinve Eric, not me. That's why I am posting..., to convince Eric. But you seem to have appointed yourself his "champion", so I invited you to engage in meaningful discussion.

Third, I'm not even a US citizen, I'm not a specialist on the matter, but from what I've seen I think the guys at WCS are right = You've made that plain. You've just failed to support your possition.

the point is that stragglers, casualties, deserters, routed - and out of command units take a toll on your battle ready figure ... it's not that the battle report in Fof only displays dead guys, they are the sum of a whole list of stuff...

Stop attacking me, and stay to the point I haven't "attacked" you..., simply invited you to support your assertions. And as far as I can tell, your only "point" is that the designers made the game, so they must know everything about the subject and be right in every decision. My experiance in 45+ years of historical study and gaming tell me that this is not necessarily the case.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Brice's_Crossroads
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Manassas

by the way - it's up to WCS to decide how many troops get out of command during or after such a fierce battle. But if you play f.e. MMG Take Command 2'nd Manassas (a tactical civil war game) you'll know what I'm talking about - when you play Longstreets offense on the Union Left wing and center - you'll notice a great number of Union regiments will begin to waver and panick and run off - and might even rout. I've played a lot of Civil War games..., but I don't assume that my experiance in this artificial environment is the equivelant to serious historical study. Games are fun, and some catch the "feel" of certain elements of reality quite well. Others have almost nothing to do with reality. This one looks like it could be entertaining and challenging in the economic/political sense. Tactics seem to take a backseat to grand strategy and logistics. This is fine, and an area that has recieved short shrift in the past---but if most of the "battles" are abstract in the game then it would be nice if the results reflected historical reality more closely.

For the moment I'm playtesting a series of scenarios based on the attack of Jones, Hood and Kempers divisions on the Union left wing and center ...

In my best moments I achieve a kill ratio of 2/1 (so 2 of his guys for one of my guys), but if I take the retreating and fleeing units into the equasion I come to ratios of 4/1 ... easely... And the victorious party gets to re-group, resupply etc. more easely.


(in reply to spruce)
Post #: 33
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 3:18:23 AM   
spruce

 

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well I did come up with some interesting examples where the "casualty rating" is much lower then the "lost for battle rating".  Take a look at Chancelorsville - where Jackson was able to dislodge an entire corps (XI corps) of 11.000 men - off course these guys didn't get killed all. But they were lost for the army to fight battles. And Fof takes that into the equasion ... the guys of the Xi corps would take some time to grow back in strength - in Fof terms perhaps a month or 2 ... seems pretty realistic imho.

Now, I would stop to this "sour" discussion at the spot and take a more open debate on the topic. I hope Eric joins us to take our discussion a little further along the road.

In fact I like the approach CWS has taken, the only thing that I'm saying is that we should see more "tied" battle or "draw" battle where this chain of bad consequences for the loosing party is not taking place - so we would see more balanced casualty ratings ... for sure a heavy battle would also take toll on the winners battle readyness. And it's a pitty you don't seem to put the nuance there on my stance here.

< Message edited by spruce -- 11/20/2006 3:25:25 AM >

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Post #: 34
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 4:40:45 AM   
Queeg


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One issue, it seems to me, is the battle calculation table even including the possibility of a "0" result. I'm inclined to think that, to accurately reflect the period, even the most lopsided rout should result in the victor suffering casualties of at least 10-20% of those suffered by the loser. There simply was no such thing as even a semi-bloodless battlefield victory in the ACW.

(in reply to spruce)
Post #: 35
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 5:43:50 AM   
jchastain


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Mike -
As I have said, I am not a historian. And please do not take this to be argumentative, as that is not the intent. Instead, I am trying to better understand the history and how it might apply to a game. Keep in mind, I'm not a dev - just a tester. But I find the discussion to be interesting.

Let us assume that casualties are adjusted to be roughly the same for both winner and loser for battles in a game (really any game and not just this one since this is meant to be a primarily theoretical discussion). Why, as the union player, would I not just attack relentlessly? The USA will win an attrition war. If "winning" a battle only determines ownership of the dirt on which the battle was fought and does not meaningfully affect casualties, then it seems I would be best served to attack everywhere without regard to winning or losing in any particular battle. Eventually the USA will just wear down the CSA armies until they can no longer effectively resist and the remainder of the war then just becomes an exercise in marching across the map. Even if I assume you lose massive amounts of supply - so what? That would just mean you'd lose the next battle. Again - so what? The goal is just to fight and ensure attrition on both sides. In fact, why buy supply at all? Why assign any generals and risk them in combat? Why invest in any upgrades to improve unit quality? If any of those things matter and impact casualties, then you can/will see lopsides losses. Hstorically even casualties, absent any additional controls, seem likely to harm rather than help many strategic elements of a game.

If you disagree with that, not from a hisorical standpoint but rather from a strategy game design standpoint, please let me know. But I suspect we will agree that there must be some other control mechanism that must be expected to temper the aggressiveness of the union under such a system in order for a game to be successful as a strategy title. In FoF, there actually is the concept of National Will - the support of the general populace. One might argue that successive major losses - even if strategically effective in a guerilla campaign - could not sustain popular support. So, that could become a reasonable mechanism that tempers the aggressiveness and dissuades hopeless aggression. And in fact, National Will and performance in battles do both have a significant impact on Victory Points within FoF. Is that the mechanism you are considering as the strategic fulcrum that balances the game strategically?

I would not be opposed to altering the battle casualty totals. But I would want to do so in a way that ensures strategic balance within the game.

Next, let's cover march attrition. I am not hearing that you are opposed to that as a concept for abstracting non-combat losses. Again, if I am mistaken is that assessment just say so and we can discuss that in greater depth. But if we accept that mechanism, then an army marching in to attack will suffer the attrition en route to the battle. The defeated army will suffer that attrition when being forced to exit the province.

The interesting point to me is that if the attacker is the victor, the casualties figures are likely more similar than they appear because the reported number includes the "pursuit" figures (movement attrition of the defender existing after the battle) but not the attrition suffered by the attacker upon entry. However, if the attacker fails, then the situation is actually worse that shown as they suffered attrition on the way in and out. It raises the legitimate question of whether attrition should be applied following a battle, but I must say that it would seem exceedingly strange to me if attrition were applied when an army was ordered to march but not if they were chased away with the enemy at their tails.

Separating movement and attrition doesn't seem like the proper answer to me. Doing so and applying attrition even when an army sat still would remove a significant incentive to allow an army to stand in place and "rest" between campaigns. It would reduce rather than enhance the realtic feel of the game to me.

Again, I suspect the devs will consider changes. And I respect your desire to keep the game historically pure. But I think the conversation needs to progress to proposing actual changes that might be made with analysis of their impact to the game. I am not certain if the AAR is sufficient to begin such a discussion in earnest or if we are all better served to begin that conversation once everyone has an opportunity to experience the current state. But respectfully, that is where I believe the conversation needs to progress if it is to produce any actionable results.

(in reply to spruce)
Post #: 36
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 6:40:16 AM   
chris0827

 

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From the AAR I see that national will is a part of this game and that losing battles lowers it and winning raises it. I assume that it has a negative effect on the countries if it gets low enough and positive effect if it's high enough. If that is the case then the union cannot continue to attack regardless of casualties. I would suspect that one result of a long sting of union defeats would be increased aid from europe for the south and possibly recognition. I probably should've noticed from reading the AAR but does troop morale drop as a result of losing a battle? If so this would encourage the losing side to retreat to recover both it's morale and combat loses. This is basically what the union armies in virginia did until Grant arrived. Lastly, the American Civil War was a war of attrition. The north had more of everything. The south had no hope of conquering the north and they knew it. To win they only had to survive until the north's will was broken or foreign governments intervened. For the North to win they had to conquer the south. Anything else was a defeat for them

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Post #: 37
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 6:52:19 AM   
Grotius


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I myself don't really care all that much about this. Yes yes, I want historical accuracy, and I think the devs would be well-advised to make the numbers "look" better by abolishing "zero" combat losses and generally making them look less lopsided. But I also want a playable game. And on a game of this scale, I recognize that many things are abstracted.

For example: The two sides are paying "money" into "diplomacy," and that's good enough for me, even though I recognize that diplomacy requires more than just cash. The federal governments are "purchasing" universities and manufacturing, even if states or the private sector might do that in real life; again, that's ok with me, as it represents an amalgam of other things. Do I care that the report doesn't say "federal gov't subsidized 20% of the startup cost of a university with bonds" blah blah? Nah. Likewise, the battle results here seem to be somewhat abstracted -- an amalgam of battle results and pre- and post-battle attrition.

So yes, it might be better to itemize attrition so that the combat results don't look so lopsided, or even better yet to rebalance the current lopsided battle totals. But whatever the devs do, I don't think the fate of the game hangs in the balance.

(in reply to chris0827)
Post #: 38
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 6:58:23 AM   
Mike Scholl

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jchastain

Mike -
As I have said, I am not a historian. And please do not take this to be argumentative, as that is not the intent. Instead, I am trying to better understand the history and how it might apply to a game. Keep in mind, I'm not a dev - just a tester. But I find the discussion to be interesting.

Let us assume that casualties are adjusted to be roughly the same for both winner and loser for battles in a game (really any game and not just this one since this is meant to be a primarily theoretical discussion). Why, as the union player, would I not just attack relentlessly? The USA will win an attrition war. If "winning" a battle only determines ownership of the dirt on which the battle was fought and does not meaningfully affect casualties, then it seems I would be best served to attack everywhere without regard to winning or losing in any particular battle. Eventually the USA will just wear down the CSA armies until they can no longer effectively resist and the remainder of the war then just becomes an exercise in marching across the map. Even if I assume you lose massive amounts of supply - so what? That would just mean you'd lose the next battle. Again - so what? The goal is just to fight and ensure attrition on both sides. In fact, why buy supply at all? Why assign any generals and risk them in combat? Why invest in any upgrades to improve unit quality? If any of those things matter and impact casualties, then you can/will see lopsides losses. Hstorically even casualties, absent any additional controls, seem likely to harm rather than help many strategic elements of a game. I might counter that this was exactly the strategy that U S Grant followed in 1864. But in the game there is also a factor of "national will" involved. I haven't played the game, so I'm not certain how it works during play---but historically a defeat resulted in the losers retiring to recover their morale, and forget the horrors on one of these murderous killing matches. Generally the winner needed a breather as well, but at least had the "morale bonus" of having "won". I assume that a string of defeats would drag down "national will" and make foriegn intervention more likely. And how do you explain battles like the Seven Days? Lee "won" in that he drove McClellan back from Richmond and eventually caused his withdrawal from the Peninsula---but the Confederate's casualties were much higher than the Union's. This doesn't seem to happen in the game. Possession of that "dirt" you dismiss WAS very important to the morale of the armies and the Nations they fought for.

If you disagree with that, not from a hisorical standpoint but rather from a strategy game design standpoint, please let me know. But I suspect we will agree that there must be some other control mechanism that must be expected to temper the aggressiveness of the union under such a system in order for a game to be successful as a strategy title. In FoF, there actually is the concept of National Will - the support of the general populace. One might argue that successive major losses - even if strategically effective in a guerilla campaign - could not sustain popular support. So, that could become a reasonable mechanism that tempers the aggressiveness and dissuades hopeless aggression. And in fact, National Will and performance in battles do both have a significant impact on Victory Points within FoF. Is that the mechanism you are considering as the strategic fulcrum that balances the game strategically? YES. "Victory" or "defeat" was often in the mind of the commanders or the troops, not in the number of casualties. Hooker still possessed a position that the average wargamer would savor when he retired at Chancelorsville..., but Hooker was "beat". Any wargamer with freedom to use all his forces would destroy the Confederacy at Sharpsburg and not break a sweat. But Lee knew he was fighting McClellan, who's fears and lack of confidence in himself always had him half-beaten before the fighting began. "The moral is to the physical as three is to one." is a quote by Napoleon..., but was quite true among the leaders and politicians in the Civil war.

I would not be opposed to altering the battle casualty totals. But I would want to do so in a way that ensures strategic balance within the game.

Next, let's cover march attrition. I am not hearing that you are opposed to that as a concept for abstracting non-combat losses. Again, if I am mistaken is that assessment just say so and we can discuss that in greater depth. But if we accept that mechanism, then an army marching in to attack will suffer the attrition en route to the battle. The defeated army will suffer that attrition when being forced to exit the province. Certainly not..., march attrittion an historic reality. Especially when the pace was "forced". But oddly, "retreat attrition" does not seem to be a major factor. Perhaps because the troops were more motivated to be going away from the enemy, perhaps because they were more willing to abandon equipment, perhaps because thier foes were to exhausted from the fighting and to happy to see them go to pursue. Lee suffered casualties of more than 1/3rd of his army at Gettysburg (Killed, wounded, and captured)---but virtually none on his retreat back to Virginia. Burnside was soundly defeated at Fredricksburg, but suffered virtually no losses in retreating back across the river. As I said before, the only real effective pursuit and destruction of an army in the Civil War was at Nashville, a rather unique event and circumstance.

The interesting point to me is that if the attacker is the victor, the casualties figures are likely more similar than they appear because the reported number includes the "pursuit" figures (movement attrition of the defender existing after the battle) but not the attrition suffered by the attacker upon entry. However, if the attacker fails, then the situation is actually worse that shown as they suffered attrition on the way in and out. It raises the legitimate question of whether attrition should be applied following a battle, but I must say that it would seem exceedingly strange to me if attrition were applied when an army was ordered to march but not if they were chased away with the enemy at their tails.

Separating movement and attrition doesn't seem like the proper answer to me. Doing so and applying attrition even when an army sat still would remove a significant incentive to allow an army to stand in place and "rest" between campaigns. It would reduce rather than enhance the realtic feel of the game to me.

Again, I suspect the devs will consider changes. And I respect your desire to keep the game historically pure. But I think the conversation needs to progress to proposing actual changes that might be made with analysis of their impact to the game. I am not certain if the AAR is sufficient to begin such a discussion in earnest or if we are all better served to begin that conversation once everyone has an opportunity to experience the current state. But respectfully, that is where I believe the conversation needs to progress if it is to produce any actionable results.


(in reply to jchastain)
Post #: 39
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 7:03:13 AM   
Grifman

 

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Good point about the impact of a purely attritional war. But this is what I think I might do - have it impact recruiting/replacement rates. If you want to crush the South purely by attrition, regardless of whether you "win" or not, then the more losses without victory results in it being harder and harder to recruit new units and replace losses. Sure the North would have the manpower, but no one would come forth to replace those losses, and if you have a draft, you get massive draft evasion. That would be one way of handling it, but you'd have to test and balance it of course. And it might not work.

That said, I go for breaking the losses into two categories as a compromise - battlefield losses and "organizational" losses. In reality the men lived, but they are no longer "combat effective" because of the defeat - they are tired, maybe hungry, lost their weapons/supplies, lost their officers/NCO's, lost their morale, need refitting, maybe retraining. That would reflect sort of what happened to defeated armies during the war - they were knocked out for a while until they could put it back together again.

That might be a reasonable compromise that wouldn't require a whole lot of reprogramming.

< Message edited by Grifman -- 11/20/2006 7:07:33 AM >

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Post #: 40
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 7:09:21 AM   
regularbird

 

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I must agree with Mr. Scholl on this one.  I hope Eric takes a good look at his arguments.

I still think you are way to hard on Mac

AU, congrats on the big Auburn win this weekend.

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Post #: 41
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 7:24:32 AM   
AU Tiger_MatrixForum


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quote:

ORIGINAL: regularbird

AU, congrats on the big Auburn win this weekend.


Thank you sir! I'll tell you though, my thumb sure is tired today....

_____________________________

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Tho. Jackson

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Post #: 42
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 9:01:54 AM   
Mike Scholl

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: regularbird

I must agree with Mr. Scholl on this one.  I hope Eric takes a good look at his arguments.

I still think you are way to hard on Mac.




Let me explain my intense disdane for "Little Mac". In September of 1862, he was handed the greatest single chance to end the war that any commander on either side ever had. His opponant was divided all over the landscape, but hurrying to take a stand with his back to a major river. Within call he had well over twice as many men as Lee could possibly hope to bring onto the field. Mac had Lee's plans in his pocket and Lee didn't know it. All the man had to do was bring up ALL his troops and push in one massive frontal assult and the Army of Northern Virginia was done for..., leaving nothing of note between Mac and Richmond. When you think of all the suffering, misery, and loss of life on both sides that occurred between January of 1863 and April of 1865, and could have been avoided by any moderately competant performance by McClellan, it makes me want to strangle the pompous little ass. And he was PROUD of his performance at Antietam... Argh..., I can't think of the little twit without getting sick to my stomach.

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Post #: 43
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 3:55:17 PM   
ericbabe


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I appreciate the feedback on game numbers.  We did calibrate the magnitudes of combat results based on historical data, and tried to calibrate the morale rules based on proportions of casualties.  The calibration might always use refinement, of course, and as we received feedback from our testers and adjusted the combat rules accordingly (such as, "increase defense values for terrain, or, lower the penalty for being out of supply") these adjustments may have caused deviation of the results from our initial calibration.

I would add that we do use the term "casualty" in the military sense of the term, not in the more common meaning that this word has (viz., someone who is killed).  Citing the Random House dictionary:

1.Military. a.a member of the armed forces lost to service through death, wounds, sickness, capture, or because his or her whereabouts or condition cannot be determined. b.casualties, loss in numerical strength through any cause, as death, wounds, sickness, capture, or desertion.

Also we do, of course, consider that the national governments' buying things like "universities" to be an abstraction.  I know some games have invented acronyms and have players allocate resources to those acronyms -- for instance, instead of "buying a university" we could have had the national government allocate resources toward General Research Expenses, and then the game could refer to "spending on GRE".  This would have made the game-lingo match the more general or abstract nature of the expenditure.  However, I was worried that a slew of acronyms would make the game harder to play, and game complexity was one thing that I think hurt sales of COG: some people very much liked the abstractions in the economy that we had in COG, but based on the amount of negative feedback I got (and read on other gamer boards), I think that far more people did not like them.  Our manual is about 250 single-spaced pages long (for the Advanced Rules!; the Basic Rules are fewer than 100 of those pages) -- we tried to do as much as we could to reduce the amount of information players needed to learn in order to play the game.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 44
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 4:11:26 PM   
marecone


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And what about those 0 killed men in a battle? I am not a programmer butthat shouldn't be too hard to fix.

Thanks and keep up the good work

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Nathan Bedford Forrest

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Post #: 45
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 4:29:01 PM   
regularbird

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: regularbird

I must agree with Mr. Scholl on this one.  I hope Eric takes a good look at his arguments.

I still think you are way to hard on Mac.




Let me explain my intense disdane for "Little Mac". In September of 1862, he was handed the greatest single chance to end the war that any commander on either side ever had. His opponant was divided all over the landscape, but hurrying to take a stand with his back to a major river. Within call he had well over twice as many men as Lee could possibly hope to bring onto the field. Mac had Lee's plans in his pocket and Lee didn't know it. All the man had to do was bring up ALL his troops and push in one massive frontal assult and the Army of Northern Virginia was done for..., leaving nothing of note between Mac and Richmond. When you think of all the suffering, misery, and loss of life on both sides that occurred between January of 1863 and April of 1865, and could have been avoided by any moderately competant performance by McClellan, it makes me want to strangle the pompous little ass. And he was PROUD of his performance at Antietam... Argh..., I can't think of the little twit without getting sick to my stomach.


Mr. Scholl sir, I will agree that the ANV should have been destroyed on that day and that Mac has that wasted opportunity on his resume, and he was a pompous ass. If Richardson had not caught some lead I believe it would have been destroyed. I am just having a little fun with your passion on the subject.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 46
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 4:32:50 PM   
elmo3

 

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I found a website with the following casualty figures on the 10 bloodiest battles of the war with an opinion on who won the battle:

#1
Battle of Gettysburg
Date: July 1-3, 1863

Location: Pennsylvania
Confederate Commander: Robert E. Lee
Union Commander: George G. Meade
Confederate Forces Engaged: 75,000
Union Forces Engaged: 82,289
Winner: Union
Casualties: 51,112 (23,049 Union and 28,063 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#2
Battle of Chickamauga
Date: September 19-20, 1863

Location: Georgia
Confederate Commander: Braxton Bragg
Union Commander: William Rosecrans
Confederate Forces Engaged: 66,326
Union Forces Engaged: 58,222
Winner: Confederacy
Casualties: 34,624 (16,170 Union and 18,454 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#3
Battle of Chancellorsville
Date: May 1-4, 1863

Location: Virginia
Confederate Commander: Robert E. Lee
Union Commander: Joseph Hooker
Confederate Forces Engaged: 60,892
Union Forces Engaged: 133,868
Winner: Confederacy
Casualties: 30,099 (17,278 Union and 12,821 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#4
Battle of Spotsylvania
Date: May 8-19, 1864

Location: Virginia
Confederate Commander: Robert E. Lee
Union Commander: Ulysses S. Grant
Confederate Forces Engaged: 50,000
Union Forces Engaged: 83,000
Winner: Confederacy
Casualties: 27,399 (18,399 Union and 9,000 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#5
Battle of Antietam
Date: September 17, 1862

Location: Maryland
Confederate Commander: Robert E. Lee
Union Commander: George B. McClellan
Confederate Forces Engaged: 51,844
Union Forces Engaged: 75,316
Winner: Inconclusive (Strategic Union Victory)
Casualties: 26,134 (12,410 Union and 13,724 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#6
Battle of The Wilderness
Date: May 5-7, 1864

Location: Virginia
Confederate Commander: Robert E. Lee
Union Commander: Ulysses S. Grant
Confederate Forces Engaged: 61,025
Union Forces Engaged: 101,895
Winner: Inconclusive
Casualties: 25,416 (17,666 Union and 7,750 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#7
Battle of Second Manassas
Date: August 29-30, 1862

Location: Virginia
Confederate Commander: Robert E. Lee
Union Commander: John Pope
Confederate Forces Engaged: 48,527
Union Forces Engaged: 75,696
Winner: Confederacy
Casualties: 25,251 (16,054 Union and 9,197 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#8
Battle of Stone's River
Date: December 31, 1862

Location: Tennessee
Confederate Commander: Braxton Bragg
Union Commander: William S. Rosecrans
Confederate Forces Engaged: 37,739
Union Forces Engaged: 41,400
Winner: Union
Casualties: 24,645 (12,906 Union and 11,739 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#9
Battle of Shiloh
Date: April 6-7, 1862

Location: Tennessee
Confederate Commander: Albert Sidney Johnston/ P. G. T. Beauregard
Union Commander: Ulysses S. Grant
Confederate Forces Engaged: 40,335
Union Forces Engaged: 62,682
Winner: Union
Casualties: 23,741 (13,047 Union and 10,694 Confederate)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#10
Battle of Fort Donelson
Date: February 13-16, 1862

Location: Tennessee
Confederate Commander: John B. Floyd/Simon B. Buckner
Union Commander: Ulysses S. Grant
Confederate Forces Engaged: 21,000
Union Forces Engaged: 27,000
Winner: Union
Casualties: 19,455 (2,832 Union and 16,623 Confederate)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's interesting to note that at Chicamagua, Stone's River, and Shiloh the "winner" suffered more casualties. That puts the designers in a bit of a dilemma since it would be nearly impossible for them to award a win in game terms to the side suffering more casualties without some very clever programming to take strategic factors into account.

Then there is The Wilderness, listed as "inconclusive", even though the Union suffered more than twice the CSA losses. Again, a very difficult conclusion to draw based on the numbers alone and almost impossible to program into the game I suspect.

That leaves only 60% of the battles listed with "expected" results (I'm including Antietam here as a strategic Union win) based on losses alone. Of those, the total losses for the winner was ~ 66K to the losers ~ 93K.

Perhaps what we need to do is wait for the game to come out and suggest that people post results from their battles so we have a bigger set of numbers to work from than just part of one AAR?

These numbers do not address the OP's concerns about inflated intelligence reports, nor the issue of "0" losses in smaller battles. FWIW I do agree with the OP that intel reports of million man marches are a bit much and "0" casualties, even in small engagements, feels unrealistic but neither are game breakers for me.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 47
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 4:52:49 PM   
Paper Tiger

 

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0 just does not work, even in the case of a massively superior force attacking a small force you only have the advanced guard to start with, so unless the advanced guard turns up sees the enemy while out of range of any of their weapons, realises that they are an isolate unit and not just an outpost or advanced guard of the opposing force surrounds them and they then surrender I don't see any way in which you can get 1500 - 0. At best you get a small battle between the advance guard and the small force and just maybe you get 1500-400 if the smaller force is unable to withdraw in good order and is routed, destroyed and dispersed. Even cavalry riding down routing troops would take some losses.
In most cases the much smaller force would I think normaly attempt to withdraw before combat.

(in reply to marecone)
Post #: 48
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 5:02:39 PM   
Mike Scholl

 

Posts: 9349
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From: Kansas City, MO
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"#10
Battle of Fort Donelson
Date: February 13-16, 1862

Location: Tennessee
Confederate Commander: John B. Floyd/Simon B. Buckner
Union Commander: Ulysses S. Grant
Confederate Forces Engaged: 21,000
Union Forces Engaged: 27,000
Winner: Union
Casualties: 19,455 (2,832 Union and 16,623 Confederate) "


I would submit that this belongs more in the Fortress/Siege category The "battle" was more a failed attempt to break out..., followed by the garrison's surrender. Otherwise, nice post with some actual concrete as a basis for your comments.

Not sure it would take any "very clever programing" to deal with the fact that sometimes the "winner" took more casualties than the "loser". Changing the perameters in the formula that generates the casualty results shouldn't be a big deal. In straight up casualty terms, the Russians "lost" WW II by a wide margin...but somehow they wound up in Berlin anyway. In the military sense, winning and losing is NOT all about killing. It's about taking away something your enemy doesn't want you to have.


(in reply to elmo3)
Post #: 49
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 5:04:03 PM   
Paper Tiger

 

Posts: 210
Joined: 11/15/2006
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How I would handle the one sided battles. Shoot me down on this if you will but it has to be better than 1500-0
Smaller force less than 50% attacking larger force, will withdraw to starting location taking march attrition. If defending force has "seek battle" 50% chance (mods for initiative of commanding generals?) of a battle at 2 - 1 odds
Larger force greater than 200% attacking non fortified defenders. Fight at 2 - 1 odds then 50% (mods for initiative of leaders) chance to withdraw 25%(modified by unit disposition) chance surrender, 25% another 2 - 1 battle withdrawing. Repeat process until unit surrenders or withdraws.

(in reply to Paper Tiger)
Post #: 50
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 5:04:06 PM   
elmo3

 

Posts: 5820
Joined: 1/22/2002
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This site lists outcomes and casualty figures for lots of battles if you drill down far enough. There are probably some small battles in there if someone with more ambition than I wants to hunt around:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War

(in reply to Paper Tiger)
Post #: 51
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 7:56:28 PM   
Hard Sarge


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From: garfield hts ohio usa
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I still don't follow part of this theme

the battles reported with a 0 loss, are not battles, the other side ran away and did not fight, you will in some/most cases get 0-0 losses as no fighting was done, the one sided losses are the other side not haveing a good break contact and routed

I don't see how you are comparing battles and seiges to a meeting engagemnet, where they don't engage ?

(which is one reason, I like to go for HW over Quick battle, as I can force a battle, when the other side is not ready, but, the AI will still, if it knows it is a bad deal, break off and run away before you get to him)

from my AARs (which, of course are based on HW battles) even in some of the slaughters, I do not come away untouched


_____________________________


(in reply to elmo3)
Post #: 52
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 8:30:50 PM   
Queeg


Posts: 495
Joined: 6/23/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hard Sarge

I still don't follow part of this theme

the battles reported with a 0 loss, are not battles, the other side ran away and did not fight, you will in some/most cases get 0-0 losses as no fighting was done, the one sided losses are the other side not haveing a good break contact and routed

I don't see how you are comparing battles and seiges to a meeting engagemnet, where they don't engage ?



I agree there should be a difference between battles, sieges and withdrawals - but "0" shouldn't be an option in any of them. Even in withdrawals, the loser doesn't just "run away" like a bunch of frightened women. They withdraw with a rear-guard that inflicts casualties. I don't think any of us are suggesting that the numbers be vastly overhauled. But there should never, ever be a "0."

In looking back over the ACW battles I could think of, the closest one I could find to a bloodless victory was Jackson's capture of Harpers Ferry just before Antietam. There, as I understand it, the two sides fought a brief skirmish, with each losing ~250 men, and the Union garrison surrendered. That, of course, was a (a) a siege and (b) a highly unique situation - and when they did fight, they both lost the same number of casualties.

I'm not a programmer, but it seems to me that one solution might be to change the way the program treats a "0" result. Instead of being a "0," perhaps it could be calculated as a percentage of the losses incurred by the victor, say, 10-20%.

(in reply to Hard Sarge)
Post #: 53
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/20/2006 9:56:59 PM   
Paper Tiger

 

Posts: 210
Joined: 11/15/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Queeg


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hard Sarge

I still don't follow part of this theme

the battles reported with a 0 loss, are not battles, the other side ran away and did not fight, you will in some/most cases get 0-0 losses as no fighting was done, the one sided losses are the other side not haveing a good break contact and routed

I don't see how you are comparing battles and seiges to a meeting engagemnet, where they don't engage ?



I agree there should be a difference between battles, sieges and withdrawals - but "0" shouldn't be an option in any of them. Even in withdrawals, the loser doesn't just "run away" like a bunch of frightened women. They withdraw with a rear-guard that inflicts casualties. I don't think any of us are suggesting that the numbers be vastly overhauled. But there should never, ever be a "0."

In looking back over the ACW battles I could think of, the closest one I could find to a bloodless victory was Jackson's capture of Harpers Ferry just before Antietam. There, as I understand it, the two sides fought a brief skirmish, with each losing ~250 men, and the Union garrison surrendered. That, of course, was a (a) a siege and (b) a highly unique situation - and when they did fight, they both lost the same number of casualties.

I'm not a programmer, but it seems to me that one solution might be to change the way the program treats a "0" result. Instead of being a "0," perhaps it could be calculated as a percentage of the losses incurred by the victor, say, 10-20%.


Do you mean here that it is more a case of march attrition for the side withdrawing?

(in reply to Queeg)
Post #: 54
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/21/2006 2:06:46 AM   
Queeg


Posts: 495
Joined: 6/23/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Paper Tiger


Do you mean here that it is more a case of march attrition for the side withdrawing?


Hadn't really thought about it from that end of the equation: i.e, what makes the withdrawing units losses so high? I'm not sure I have a problem there.

I'm looking at the other end of the equation: i.e., what justifies the pursuing force showing a loss of 0? Units of the size depicted in this game (division, corps and army) should never show 0 losses from any engagement, be it battle, siege or pursuit. That just never happened in the ACW.

I'm just looking at it practically. Whatever the reason for a large-scale movement of two opposing armies, there's always some guys at the back of one line shooting at guys at the front of the other - and in the ACW, those guys tended to hit each other in roughly equal numbers with surprising consistency. The game should reflect that, at least to the extent of replacing "0" with some other number.

(in reply to Paper Tiger)
Post #: 55
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/21/2006 2:12:28 AM   
Queeg


Posts: 495
Joined: 6/23/2005
Status: offline
I hasten to add one important note: I think this probably the first time in about five years that I've been excited enough about a game to post suggestions before it was even released. So while I am whining, it's really good whining.

(in reply to spruce)
Post #: 56
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/21/2006 2:30:41 AM   
Grifman

 

Posts: 156
Joined: 7/6/2002
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quote:

ORIGINAL: elmo3

It's interesting to note that at Chicamagua, Stone's River, and Shiloh the "winner" suffered more casualties. That puts the designers in a bit of a dilemma since it would be nearly impossible for them to award a win in game terms to the side suffering more casualties without some very clever programming to take strategic factors into account.


Actually it could be done easily. The game first decides who won a battle. Then it assigns a random % of casualties to each side based upon some historical ranges. That would result in some battles where the victor has higher casualties than the loser. That's at least one way it could be done, though I can think of others.

quote:

Then there is The Wilderness, listed as "inconclusive", even though the Union suffered more than twice the CSA losses. Again, a very difficult conclusion to draw based on the numbers alone and almost impossible to program into the game I suspect.


There's an argument to be made that the Wilderness was a tactical victory for the South. Grant had both his flanks bashed, lost more men than Hooker and inflicted less casualties on Lee than Hooker - on virtually the same battlefield. The ONLY difference, and it was a big one, was Grant didn't retreat. He continued the advance on Richmond. There was every expectation in the AoP that there would be withdrawal after the battle - everyone knew Grant had been "whipped". But Grant was no Hooker. He ordered an advance and the army cheered when they heard the news. And Lee knew he was facing a different man than he had faced before.



(in reply to elmo3)
Post #: 57
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/21/2006 2:49:17 AM   
Queeg


Posts: 495
Joined: 6/23/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Grifman


Actually it could be done easily. The game first decides who won a battle. Then it assigns a random % of casualties to each side based upon some historical ranges. That would result in some battles where the victor has higher casualties than the loser. That's at least one way it could be done, though I can think of others.



That's along the lines of what I'm thinking. Can't vouch for "easily" though.

(in reply to Grifman)
Post #: 58
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/21/2006 4:40:28 AM   
Grifman

 

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I can see an issue with this approach though. By basing results upon historical ratios, you ignore the impact of training and upgrades. You allow one player to totally ignore them while the player that uses them obtains no benefit. That's an issue.

(in reply to Queeg)
Post #: 59
RE: Realistic Numbers? - 11/21/2006 7:06:28 PM   
spruce

 

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Joined: 9/23/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: elmo3

I found a website with the following casualty figures on the 10 bloodiest battles of the war with an opinion on who won the battle:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#3
Battle of Chancellorsville
Date: May 1-4, 1863

Location: Virginia
Confederate Commander: Robert E. Lee
Union Commander: Joseph Hooker
Confederate Forces Engaged: 60,892
Union Forces Engaged: 133,868
Winner: Confederacy
Casualties: 30,099 (17,278 Union and 12,821 Confederate)




after reading at Wikipedia about Chancellorsville and reading about Jacksons assault of the Union XI corps - by this manoeuvre Jackson shattered a whole Union corps of 11.000 men - from which 4.000 were captured - but the rest was either killed or wounded or running for their lives.

These 11.000 men are not displayed in the casualty figure stated above.

What I've learned about this discussion - is that the casualty rating in Fof - means how many soldiers are taken from your battle ready forces - after the battle is over. This also includes the 11.000 guys from the XI corps ... even a month after this horrible defeat that Union corps was not fit to fight a new battle.

The problem is that figures and definitions used by different people are in fact totally different - and as such it's really hard to support attacking the current game setup as it's a model or a game model.

Eric has convinced me that this approach is needed as a game model - otherwise the Union would achieve victory in a matter of months. And I also believe by tweaking a little, they'll make it better.

If you pull of a Jacksonlike manoeuvre - like Jackson did on the XI corps at Chancellorsville - the impact on the battle ready Union army is much more then dead and wounded soldiers only.

So it's all about definitions and comparing figures that are not to be compared. In the end, we should get a nice game that's fun to play ... and this will be the priority.

< Message edited by spruce -- 11/21/2006 7:13:11 PM >

(in reply to elmo3)
Post #: 60
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