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Joined: 12/8/2006
From: Mobile, AL
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There were record cotton crops in the years leading up to the War, so manufacturers had almost a year's supply of cotton on hand when the War started. The real reason for the labor layoffs and idle looms in England was a glut of cotton textiles on the market, so the cotton shortage didn't matter so much in the short term. Large increases in cotton acreage in Egypt and India kept English and French mills running at an acceptable level after that, along with what cotton could be run through the blockade or bought through Union-occupied areas (in New Orleans, in particular, that was a lot because of the trading with Confederate territories).
When the War began the Confederacy decided not to export cotton, hoping to force England and France to come in on the Confederate side. Instead, the cotton sat in warehouses when it could easily be shipped and couldn't be shipped when it was wanted in quantity. Against British revulsion of slavery and general desire to keep to themselves, 'King Cotton' wasn't the weapon Southerners had hoped. Of equal or greater value than the cotton trade were the crop failures in Europe that made Britain heavily dependent on American grain, railroaded from the Midwest to the Atlantic ports. Britain could afford to have textile workers idle, but could not easily afford to cut the grain supply. American concilliation after the 'Trent' affair and American eagerness to sell the grain, corn and beef at reasonable prices went a long way to healing Anglo-American relations. Charles Adams did a fine job as US Ambassador, too. And given how committed the Brits were to ending the slave trade, and given that textile workers actually voted support for the Northern side, I think the actual chance of British participation - barring the 'Trent' affair - was about zero.
Blockade runners did run in and out with less than 1/3 chance of being caught, but they didn't carry much. Most of the so-called blockade runners were little coastal craft. Overall the South's export/import traffic probably went down buy 2/3 (or so) by late 1862. As ports were captured (New Orleans!) and shut off (Savannah!) the traffic declined even more.
I've been researching this for a Railroad Tycoon scenario. 
Recommended sources: MacPherson's 'Battle Cry of Freedom' and 'The Cousins' Wars' by Kevin Phillips (ties the English Civil War, American Revolution and Civil War together).
Sounds like what the game needs is a 'foreign affairs events' file that fires randomly and gives the player chances to take hits/gain benefits according to his responses.
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