RE: Reliever's Appearances way too high!

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RE: Reliever's Appearances way too high!

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RE: Reliever's Appearances way too high! - 12/3/2006 6:51:14 AM

XCom

Posts: 193
Joined: 6/6/2006
Status: offline

Okay here is what I saw when I ran this extended test. Remember that this was on a 12 team fictional league with 60 man rosters.

First off let's look at how overall CGs varied over the first 10 seasons

2006: 370
2007: 393
2008: 410
2009: 380
2010: 430
2011: 442
2012: 461
2013: 483
2014: 502
2015: 495

As you can see there is a steady trend upward again as those original young players develop and become the top starters. There is about a 20% increase in CGs from the first few seasons to seasons 8-10. After that point the CG numbers seem to stabilize with overall results +/- 10% from the 2015 result over the next 15 seasons. This trend in the first 10 seasons has to mean less innings pitched in relief in general. Now let's look at some reliever trends.

Here are both the highest number of appearances and the highest number of innings by a reliever with less than 3 starts for the first ten seasons.

2006: 70 G, 169.1 IP
2007: 60 G, 158 IP (2 starts)
2008: 59 G, 152.1 IP
2009: 66 G, 172.1 IP (1 start)
2010: 64 G, 190.1 IP
2011: 64 G, 139.1 IP (1 start)
2012: 70 G, 176.1 IP
2013: 59 G, 171.2 IP
2014: 64 G, 174.1 IP
2015: 61 G, 136.1 IP

I can't really take anything away from this data. Even with the increasing trend in CGs, the results for the most worked relievers did not really trend down. It looks to me like I am right back where I started with several relievers each year being eligible for the ERA title. After 2015 the numbers seemed to be a little better but still seeing a reliever hit 160+ IP once in a while.

Not sure where to go from here on this one. Just might have to be one thing we have to accept and move on.

(in reply to XCom)

Post #: 31

RE: Reliever's Appearances way too high! - 12/21/2006 3:29:23 PM

bobsayah

Posts: 35
Joined: 10/15/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: XCom

Not sure where to go from here on this one. Just might have to be one thing we have to accept and move on.

I don't think so. I believe, as I suggested earlier in this thread, that some tweaking to the logic which chooses which reliever to bring into the game would help a lot on this issue. When Mike Mussina gets knocked out of the game in the second inning, Joe Torre doesn't bring in Kyle Farnsworth no matter how rested he is. Maybe, just maybe, this makes sense in "game 7", but not in the middle of May. The AI almost always makes the equivalent of the Farnsworth for Mussina replacement.

(in reply to XCom)

Post #: 32