Uncle_Joe
Posts: 1985
Joined: 8/26/2004
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Note that with 'B', 9 times out of 10 those resources that Russia is gifting to Germany dont mean a thing to Germany (or Russia). You likely already are at maximum storage and all your factories are working to capacity. So, that should not currently be a factor in calculating an optimal time for a DoW.
IMO, its generally to Germany's benefit to delay as long as possible before attacking Russia. The benefits are numerous, but here are a few of note:
1) The game is on a fixed timetable. As long as either Germany or Japan survive until the end, the Axis will win. So, it is generally favorable to reduce the amount of time that the Allies have to conquer you.
2) Economy. Germany's econ is fairly on pace with the Allies in the early game but that rapidly disappears as the Allies multipliers for being at war kick in. At the beginning of the game, the Allies are likely wasting Pop points left and right due to shortages of resources where Germany is likely using all of hers. Giving the Allies resources to match the pop doesnt seem like a good idea IMO when you are already max'ed out yourself.
3) Research cap. Until Germany is at war with US or USSR, the cap is in place. This helps Germany keep her tech edges over the Allies longer. Once the cap is gone and the multipliers kick in, the Allied tech can really start to roll. Keeping the tech and multiplier low for a longer period also pushes back the A-bomb potential which really helps Japan's survival.
4) Certain very beneficial events for Germany (like Spanish Activation) require Germany to not be war with the US etc. The longer you put off the war, the more chance of getting a favorable event.
5) Extra time vs the UK. If you dont attack Russia until 42, then you can spend almost an entire extra year pounding the UK. You can bomb their factories and resources and attack them in the Med. In extreme cases, you can take England. The more damage you do to the WAllies in 41, the longer it will take for them to recover and turn the tables on you when the US finally does get in (which is a double whammy considering the fixed end date).
On the other hand, Japan's econ really struggles without the US gift resources. So once those dry up in Sp41, Japan really takes a hit. But even there, on the plus side, if the Japanese dont 'surprise attack' the US anywhere, it will likely be years before the full US industry kicks in which can really level the playing field for Japan's weak econ. IMO, though, that is playing with fire and its probably best to plan on attacking the US with Japan by Sp/Su42 at the latest.
So, given the above, I believe that it is almost always in Germany's interest to delay as long as they can without surrendering the initiative. This might involve needing Spies to keep a closer look at the WR numbers, but even without Spies, you can generally calculate how long you have.
Luckily for the Allies, in AWD they actually have some say in the deal (unlike WaW where Germany was the sole decider of the entire course of the war). There are two basic things that Russia can do to alter the equation:
1) Repair the rail line in Eastern Poland and begin moving units in. For ever non-Militia unit they move in, their WR goes up by 1 at the end of the turn. By continuously adding units each turn (they can only move 1/turn), they can pretty much keep Germany 'honest' and on a 41-ish timetable. The big disadvantage for Russia here is that she will likely lose all of the units she commits on the first turn of the war to little or no gain (since they will be victims of the surprise attack rule). Secondly, making those moves deprives Russia of her ability to reinforce Leningrad or Stalingrad or to form any strategic depth behind the initial lines (usually leading to units being cut off and destroyed).
2) Russia can queue up a few Factories on turn 1. If she does this, she will begin realizing payoff in Su41. Every turn Germany doesnt attack past then, Russia is gaining 2 PP/factory she built. Of course once Germany does attack, those factories will likely go idle due to resource shortages. And again, if Germany does attack in 41, you will be weaker since you will have spent early resources on factories that have no paid off yet.
The end result is that Russia has to decide how much to risk in the early game to put pressure on Germany. If she goes 'all in' and Germany attacks in 41, its likely that Russia could be overrun fairly quickly. On the other hand, if she doesnt commit at all, Germany enjoys all of the above benefits for free if she so chooses.
But the operative thing is that it is now a decision to be made by BOTH sides. Your challenge is to evaluate what the enemy is doing to implement your plans to best capitalize on the enemy actions.
Hope it helps!
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