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asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 6:28:09 AM

morvwilson

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We seem to keep vering into this subject on other threads, maybe it is best for it to have its own.

Can a modern army win against a guerilla/terrorist force? If so, how?

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 6:55:20 AM

2ndACR

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Take the gloves off and play by the same rules as the enemy you are fighting. Easy as that.

Iraq?.........Well, first off........cut off the damn cell phone towers and such. 2nd.......place a complete travel ban on any non-US military vehicle, all others can be shot on sight. Force the bad guys to move by foot alone, carrying everything they need. Also deny's them the "run to the next city over the hill" when we come to play.

3...........move one city at a time starting at Uhm Qasar in the south to huge tent city's in Western Iraq and search the city's from the ground up. Even if it takes weeks to do it. You can then check all people for ID's, if they have been in contact with explosives, or are the wanted list. Anyone who resists.....shoot them, they are the enemy.

4..........Once you declare the city clear and secure, move the people back in but inform them all that any trouble within 5-10 miles of that city, and the process will be repeated. And by clear and secure, I mean not a single weapon, grenade left in the city.

By limiting the easy travel, you force Habib to consider walking somewhere and always being at risk of being stopped by US forces. I have been back from Iraq for a year now, so yes........these will work.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 7:01:55 AM

morvwilson

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So as I suspect, the real question is "Does the political leadership have the stomach for what you propose?" I think not at this time.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 7:05:24 AM

2ndACR

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Nope, and i see no Politician with the stomach for it.......Maybe I should run for President.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 7:07:21 AM

morvwilson

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You would have my vote! Where is our US Grant or Patton when we need him!

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 10:59:39 AM

Ursa MAior

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You always have the option of marrying the commanding general to the daughter of the strongest tribe!

See Alexander in Baktria.

Winning hearts and minds is the key since the rules of engagment have been seriously altered in the pasty decades (say since WWII). One CANNOT defeat a popular movement which is supported by the majority of the population. ANY occupying force needs local support from the 'natives'.

Option one
Regular army defeats insurgents again again and again, but they will keep coming back even if they have to use stones as weapons. See the strugle of balkanic people against the ottoman turks whih have lasted for centuries. Heck the turks occupied the greatest part of my country for 145 years and we are still here. Sooner or later the regular army's morale will sink to the bottom.

Option two
Eradicate the whole population. Or at least relocate it see boers. Well in 21st century it is not an option.

Option three
Hearts and minds. Why they do what they do. It is the hardest, most time consuming way, but itis the only that works see SAS early years in ASia.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 12:12:10 PM

BailChannis

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quote:

ORIGINAL: morvwilson

We seem to keep vering into this subject on other threads, maybe it is best for it to have its own.

Can a modern army win against a guerilla/terrorist force? If so, how?

Briggs Plan?

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 1:25:02 PM

Ursa MAior

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What is the Briggs plan?

Edit I see know it was in he wikipedia. Well the key was there also the COOPERATION with the locals.

2ndACR's suggestions has merits, but IMHO you cannot defeat an opinion with weapons. You cannot shoot down a ghost no matter how big guns you bring. Of course a ruthles dictator can always suppress any different opinion. It took 50 yrs for the communism to collapse, but it did.

< Message edited by Ursa MAior -- 1/26/2007 1:42:33 PM >

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 1:29:48 PM

JudgeDredd

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quote:

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR
4..........Once you declare the city clear and secure, move the people back in but inform them all that any trouble within 5-10 miles of that city, and the process will be repeated. And by clear and secure, I mean not a single weapon, grenade left in the city.

Problem here is that alot of Iraqis
1. Deem it their right to bear arms (try telling an American, after all these years of the constitution) that he cannot bear arms anymore
2. They do not have enough faith in the forces out there to protect them, so they deem a weapon a requirement of survival.

I see their point, tbh...but your answer is an eyeopener in another way...

quote:

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR
Take the gloves off and play by the same rules as the enemy you are fighting. Easy as that.

Whilst I agree that that is the only way for a modern, conventional force to win a war against terrorism, it then ceases to be modern, conventional army and becomes what they fight, but on the side of "justice". Maybe it's time we stopped referring to them as conventional, being as there's a lack of conventional wars...maybe

I don't think a modern, conventional force can fight a terrorist war...certainly not on it's own, without stooping to the levels of the terrorists and simply not giving a rats ass about local, law-abiding citizens.

It needs insurgents and informers of it's own. It also needs to stop killing innocents...that simply helps to bread terrorism.

I said many a time, when I saw the photos from Abu-grad and the various photos of soldiers from the UK all apparently showing abuse of prisoners....the modern armed force is not a policing force and should not be asked to do so. They are a highly trained fighting force and need to focus on that...let policemen police...let armies fight.

< Message edited by JudgeDredd -- 1/26/2007 1:42:18 PM >

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 1:36:38 PM

Ursa MAior

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Is a political (ie less military) solutuion possible? I mean by hearts and minds or combined approach.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 2:07:16 PM

JudgeDredd

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I think you hit the nail on the head with hearts and minds....problem is, 1 indescretion, 1 little incident undoes ALL of your work.

You can spend months pouring effort into hearts and minds, but Abu-grad and then dropping bombs on "suspected" terrorist locations and hitting civilians just sets the work back months.

The US and UK should have immediately started to sort out Iraq, putting back power, water, infrastructure...generally improving the local populations standard of living...not just being focused on getting the oil out the door.

Killing and abusing civilians will do massive damage to your campaign. In WWII, alot of Russians had no problem fighting to the death because they heard about the horrific actions of the German Army...I'm watching a film just now, Stalingrad, and it it the German soldier captures a female russian soldier. He trusts her to get her out of the sewers and then dumps him in the sewer and runs away...she has now condemened any POWs the soldier comes across to death because of that one little action...showing that no matter how honest and gentlemanly he is, the enemy cannot be trusted.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 2:13:24 PM

Twotribes

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JudgeDredd

I said many a time, when I saw the photos from Abu-grad and the various photos of soldiers from the UK all apparently showing abuse of prisoners....the modern armed force is not a policing force and should not be asked to do so. They are a highly trained fighting force and need to focus on that...let policemen police...let armies fight.

The only problem here would be that the Ringleader in the abuse at the prison was IN FACT a "policeman" of sorts already. His job outside the military was "gasp" as a corrections officers in a jail.

Pointing out that a tiny miniscule minority in any army misbehaves and violates the rules, regulations and laws , and then claiming that THIS is reason not to do anything, ignores the basic fact it happens in EVERY ARMY and has happened through out recorded history.

No Military is free of criminals or whack jobs. The key then becomes what does the military in question do with the bad seeds they catch? Do they reward them for their behavior? Or do they punish them? Do they hide the misdeeds OR do they report tem to the press and the citizenry and the governments involved?

You would need to do more than point out a criminal caught, tried and punished by the military and or Government and then exclaim Oh MY God they cant do the job and are as bad as the people they are fighting. I would suggest you need to actually show a pattern, command aquisience to the behavior, training that teaches the behavior, policies of the military or Government authorizing, encouraring or teaching the behavior. Something other than " Look, the military caught, tried and punished them for violations BUT this is proof they cant do the job"

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 2:14:54 PM

JudgeDredd

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As for political resolutions....I'm sure they would work in some instances...but injustices have to be stopped also. You can send as many soldiers as you want to a region...but the local population will not love you, liberated or not, unless their standard of living improves.

In Northern Ireland, the UK government had to show good will, against alot of criticism. I think anyway (IIRC)...releasing prisoners...lowering armed forces visibility and eventually lowering numbers...eventually the IRA gave up their weaapons and there war of freedom and came to the voting arena. Now...as a UK citizen, I always saw the IRA as the enemy....but they were freedom fighters to the people wanting a united Ireland.

One mans terrorist...etc

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 2:22:19 PM

JudgeDredd

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2T - I didn't say it was a reason not to do anything...I said they should not be used as a policing force.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 4:19:42 PM

Erik Rutins

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The interesting thing is that based on the polls I've seen, the insurgents do not have majority popular support, they have minority support. However, the situation over there is far more complex than a straightforward insurgency at this point as far as the various factions, their agendas, their backers, etc. We're treading really close to politics again with this thread though, please try to keep these discussions more in the abstract.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 5:06:17 PM

Knuckles_85

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ursa MAior

What is the Briggs plan?

Edit I see know it was in he wikipedia. Well the key was there also the COOPERATION with the locals.

2ndACR's suggestions has merits, but IMHO you cannot defeat an opinion with weapons. You cannot shoot down a ghost no matter how big guns you bring. Of course a ruthles dictator can always suppress any different opinion. It took 50 yrs for the communism to collapse, but it did.

No? Let's ask the Bushido if their thought pattern was changed after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Japanese were as extreme as islamist are now.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 5:11:29 PM

Knuckles_85

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ursa MAior

Is a political (ie less military) solutuion possible? I mean by hearts and minds or combined approach.

How much do you know about Islam? There is no hearts and minds to be won short of completely pulling out of the ME including giving muslims Israel, India, Spain and Indonesia. Muslims consider all of that territory theirs. Actually all land are muslim land because it was created by Allah. Study Islam and read the Quran. It's pretty interesting.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 5:13:49 PM

Knuckles_85

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quote:

The US and UK should have immediately started to sort out Iraq, putting back power, water, infrastructure...generally improving the local populations standard of living...not just being focused on getting the oil out the door.

Kinda hard when as soon as you get a grid up the insurgents either destroy it or kill all the contractor.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 5:31:47 PM

Twotribes

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Knuckles_85

quote:

The US and UK should have immediately started to sort out Iraq, putting back power, water, infrastructure...generally improving the local populations standard of living...not just being focused on getting the oil out the door.
Kinda hard when as soon as you get a grid up the insurgents either destroy it or kill all the contractor.

Well more to the point, they DID. Readsome rel facts not just the garbage the MSM puts out. The basic infrastructure of all those things was in ruins, NOT from american and coalition actions but from the inaction for 15 years of Saddam Hussein.

The reality is that Iraq HAS better water, better elctric, TV and every other service BECAUSE of America. It can only get so good though because a small minority ( less than 20 percent of the country ( in basicly 3 Provinces) cant accept the lost power. They blow crap up, they cut and interrupt service, they bomb schools and kill the people trying to make life better.

4 to 6 hours of electricity a day sounds horrible, and to us it is, but do a little research and you will find those are the same or better than before we invaded. You will find that the Military has spent BILLIONS on a ruined infrastructure and continues to spend on it to repair the attacks of "terrorists" and your " freedom" fighters. There was no " just get the oil out" and forget everyone else. However, guess where the Iraqi government gets its money from? It aint taxes, it is oil sales. No oil flow, no money for repairs, for improvements, for salaries, for government functions like hospitals and emergancy services.

So the question becomes.... I have 10 dollars. with that I can fix the power lines until the insurgents blow them up again and then I have nothing, OR I can hire guards and fix the oil lines, allowing me to MAKE money so that I can fix everything else.... I know which one I would chose.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 6:56:28 PM

Sardonic

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The Romans and the British have shown how you win such a conflict.

Recognize that the people are the enemy, and wage war upon the people.

The Romans would use wholesale depopulation if they had to.

The Brits used concentration camps.

There is nothing new to winning against guerilla war, you just have to WANT to win.

'To make the enemy surrender, you must make all alternatives, much worse than surrender' - Karl von Clausewitz

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 7:38:34 PM

bartholimew

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Name me a guerilla war that was not backed up by an outside force and I'll show you a civil war lost by the insurgency.

You can't have a successful insurgency without financial and material backing from somewhere. As long as materials fuel the fire it will go on. So get rid of the broker nation and problem solved.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 8:10:38 PM

Sardonic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bartholimew

Name me a guerilla war that was not backed up by an outside force and I'll show you a civil war lost by the insurgency.

You can't have a successful insurgency without financial and material backing from somewhere. As long as materials fuel the fire it will go on. So get rid of the broker nation and problem solved.

I would suggest that it depends a bit upon the CAUSE of the insurgency.
Rebellions in Pannonia and Dalmatia in the late 1st century BC were caused because the people faced
excessive taxation at the hands of Rome. They did lose, but only after 4 years of very bitter fighting.

In the case of Iraq, You cant suppress Russia or China, and they are the ultimate backers of Iran > Iraq.

Also, in the Boer War, I find it hard to believe that the Boer's got any material aid from anyone, once England
got involved.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 8:42:40 PM

Ursa MAior

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Knuckles_85

How much do you know about Islam? There is no hearts and minds to be won short of completely pulling out of the ME including giving muslims Israel, India, Spain and Indonesia. Muslims consider all of that territory theirs. Actually all land are muslim land because it was created by Allah. Study Islam and read the Quran. It's pretty interesting.

Well I think quite a lot about it. Do you know for example that jyhad is ONLY valid against PAGANS. Not against the people of the book (ie christians and jews). One cannot blame a whole religion for what a minority did. What you have just stated sound like it has come from a military officer's handbook. Simple and straightforward.

As of hearts and minds in Malaysia the population is mostly muslim, or see SAS in Aden -the famous firqat- they are muslims too. So I am sorry to say that but you are wrong.

Edit. As of Bushido and Japan. You are probably unaware of the recent (2005) turmoil between Korea, China AND Japan because in the japanese schoolbooks the attrocities of the japanese army are STILL not even mentioned. The answer is no the bombs have not changed the bushido. The previous japanese PM (Koizuni IIRC) have regularly visited the Temple of the WWII heroes of Japan, causing outrage from China and South Korea.

Edit Foreign powers supporting guerillas, the malays were also not supported by anybody.

< Message edited by Ursa MAior -- 1/26/2007 9:01:14 PM >

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/26/2007 9:32:06 PM

Knuckles_85

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ursa MAior

quote:

ORIGINAL: Knuckles_85

How much do you know about Islam? There is no hearts and minds to be won short of completely pulling out of the ME including giving muslims Israel, India, Spain and Indonesia. Muslims consider all of that territory theirs. Actually all land are muslim land because it was created by Allah. Study Islam and read the Quran. It's pretty interesting.

Well I think quite a lot about it. Do you know for example that jyhad is ONLY valid against PAGANS. Not against the people of the book (ie christians and jews). One cannot blame a whole religion for what a minority did. What you have just stated sound like it has come from a military officer's handbook. Simple and straightforward.

As of hearts and minds in Malaysia the population is mostly muslim, or see SAS in Aden -the famous firqat- they are muslims too. So I am sorry to say that but you are wrong.

Edit. As of Bushido and Japan. You are probably unaware of the recent (2005) turmoil between Korea, China AND Japan because in the japanese schoolbooks the attrocities of the japanese army are STILL not even mentioned. The answer is no the bombs have not changed the bushido. The previous japanese PM (Koizuni IIRC) have regularly visited the Temple of the WWII heroes of Japan, causing outrage from China and South Korea.

Edit Foreign powers supporting guerillas, the malays were also not supported by anybody.

Umm no. Jihad can be waged can be waged against kufrs or people of the book. That's the point of the Jizya, it's a form of extortion. Pay it our you will not have our "protection". It also depends on what you are talking about when you say Jihad cause Jihad has many meanings including an eternal struggle from ones self. My knowledge of Islam comes from what muslims scholars say, the Quran, and from muslims themselves. I've never been in the military and have never seen a military hand book. Read the Suras on the relationship between Muslims and the people of the book (kufr not Kaffir there's a difference). You are not to take them as friends, confidants, or protectors. They are liars. As for the Bushido have you noticed that they now act politically not agressively like they used to. I say that's a pretty big philosophy change.

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RE: asymetric/guerilla warfare - 1/27/2007 12:30:49 AM

Erik Rutins

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Well, I guess I was a bit naive to think we could keep this to the abstract. Locking this up now, we can all get our desire to discuss this out elsewhere.

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