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RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRAND STRATEGY

 
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RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 6:28:40 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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Status: offline 		All these ideas are very helpful. And, no, they are not too detailed.

In fact I could use more details (especially timing) on the subsequent political actions in the Balkans by Germay after he/she defeats Yugoslavia in 39. And, more details on the best USSR (and CW?) response to those actions by Germany/Italy in the Balkans.

-----

I assume the actual attack on Gibraltar doesn't occur until after France has fallen, since Italy doesn't want to have anything at all to do with the French fleet.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to trees)
Post #: 31
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 6:29:46 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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Status: offline 		Oh, and what about Malta? Is it simply ignored until Gibraltar falls?

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 32
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 7:18:12 PM   
trees

 

Posts: 175
Joined: 5/28/2006
Status: offline 		In the Balkans you get into cost/benefit analysis with who to align when. Germany already gets Hungary's resource but it might be nice to add their factory to the total. But that hands a resource back to the Russians. But you could use the Hungarian army to help out attacking and garrisoning Yugoslavia. Align Rumania and you cut off an oil to a possibly still neutral Italy. Align Rumania in 1939 and you don't get their HQ-I for free, but the Russians then can't demand Bessarabia. If you don't align Rumania the French might get a BP or two out of the Yugoslavian economy while the Germans approach from the north. Other people like to simply conquer Hungary and use the entire Rumanian force pool in Russia, though the Russians can crimp this by never demanding Bessarabia. Still other folks like to align Yugoslavia by taking Greece first; an extra HQ-I and winterized MTN unit is nice to have, and gives the Duce an extra homebase when he needs one later on.

I think it worthwhile to commit some Stukas, paratroopers, Marines, NAVs, and the few sorta long-range fighters available to a campaign for a defended Malta. (As the CW I send at least one white-print unit there). But that could cut into efforts to break the Nazi-Soviet pact. If the Axis is aiming for Gibraltar there might not be much on Malta, that might be a bigger question for the CW AI. But if you don't take Malta you might eventually see Gort, the Royal Engineers, and five airplanes based there. Malta also makes a nice base for the Italian Navy, but not so much for the Royal Navy. This same algebra extends to who controls French North Africa...

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 33
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 7:51:17 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Oh, and what about Malta? Is it simply ignored until Gibraltar falls?

Well, in my opinion, Malta is critical for the Allies to have, when they want to invade Italy.
For the Axis, the importance is much lower, so they can try to take it if it is weakly defended, but it is not worth a major assault.
Except when the balance of forces is shifting in the Med, it can be valuable to try to conquer it, to delay the Allies offensive over Italy.

If the Axis is in a Gib + Med Strategy, it is obvious that Malta is secondary, really secondary, and will be conquered easily whatever its defenses, when the Med will be closed.

If the Axis is in a Barb Strategy, I'd revert to what I wrote at the beginning : Take it if there is an opportunity, but not gear a full scale offensive just for it. Defending strongly Sardinia is also a good Italia offensive brake, and the Axis should focus on that rather than try to conquer Malta.
So, the Axis need to be able to take advantage of a weakness in the CW defense (both corps being face down due to arriving here for example).

When the Axis is on a Barb Strategy, as the Axis I view the Med theater as a tree falling, when a woodcutter is working to cut it. That is, you know it will fall, whatever you do, you know it, the only thing you can do is delay it, and the more you delay it, the less impact its fall will have on you.

For me, the Axis (in a Barb strategy) need to delay the allies in the Med. If you manage to delay the fall of Italy to 1944, it is a really good thing. If you manage to delay it untill late 44, it is nearly a winner. The longer Italy is on its legs, the longer the German has his arms free to bash on the Russians, or the Wallies if they invade.

Delaying them is quite easy. Each impulse gained is a victory. This may be hampering their naval rebases by leaving SUBs at sea in the return to base phase, so that their offensive deployment may get screwed, keeping key places like the southern Sardinian city a long time, having Malta, making them pay for evacuating you from N Africa, less defending the spots in Italy where you would prefer them to land (Bari area seems the best, from the Axis point of view, because it is far from everything critical)...

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 34
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 8:28:00 PM   
trees

 

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Status: offline 		Patrice's post touches on a basic Axis style question ... you can set the crop to the horses early on in an attempt to open up a big lead on the Allies, or you can pace yourself for the long haul.

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 35
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 9:35:30 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

set the crop to the horses early on
What does this mean ?

(in reply to trees)
Post #: 36
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 10:05:10 PM   
Arron69


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Status: offline 		On a close Med strategy, Malta can be a very good base of operation for the Axis. It controls 3 sea zones, and a large stike fleet here can dominate the med, Same goes for the Allies. Hence Malta is VERY important in my opion. Just not in a sealion Strategy, to costly for what you get in return.

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The winner of a battle may not be the one who wins the War.

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Post #: 37
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 10:47:06 PM   
coregames


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I assume the actual attack on Gibraltar doesn't occur until after France has fallen, since Italy doesn't want to have anything at all to do with the French fleet.


If the Germans are helping maintain naval air superiority in the Western Med, this will lessen losses inflicted by the French and British fleets. Even if the bulk of the Italian fleet is sunk, and Gibralter taken as a result, I would deem that worth it, since no other hex in the game is as critical for both sides during most of the game.

And yes, Malta should be targeted if vulnerable, but not at the cost of taking your eye off the ball. Of the two, Gibralter is by far the more important.

_____________________________

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Keith Henderson

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 38
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 11:02:18 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

quote:

set the crop to the horses early on
What does this mean ?

A riding crop is what jockeys carry - a form of a whip.

To set the crop to the horses means to whip them - though not necessarily viciously, but with determination.

In the context it was used, the idea is for the Axis to go for immediate territorial gains without regard to US Entry.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 39
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/22/2006 11:08:36 PM   
coregames


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
...I could use more details (especially timing) on the subsequent political actions in the Balkans by Germay after he/she defeats Yugoslavia in 39. And, more details on the best USSR (and CW?) response to those actions by Germany/Italy in the Balkans.


If the CW is given a chance, they can align Yugo by supporting Greece, so the afore-mentioned strategy prevents this. The timing, if the DoW comes on impulse 3, is an immediate alignment of Rumania that same impulse, preventing the Bessarabian claim from ever being made. After Yugo falls, those forces must make haste back to the French theatre. Fortunately, fast units can probably make this journey with land moves by the end of Jan/Feb, and slower units can be railed.

Subsequent aligment of Axis minors can be more a matter of taste and of stratetic goals, but chances are if the Russians are set up for attacking Rumania, Finland and/or Persia will be given a reprieve.

The only possible drawback is it may mean a slight delay on capturing the low countries, although Denmark is still a must at the first clear weather opportunity. This delay doesn't really hurt much though, since the campaign season is when festivities in France begin in earnest anyway -- there is plenty of time for storming Ne and Be before the end of Mar/Apr.

Personally, I would never adopt a traditional approach. I would either opt for the early Yugo, or the slow Poland. The latter is when Germany tries to make early inroads in the low countries and France at the cost of under-commitment to Poland, aiming to use undisrupted reserves in Nov/Dec to hit the Poles, perhaps not conquering them till early '40. This strategy is especially useful if driving through Spain towards Gibralter is your goal; the earlier you can get about this, the less chance the Americans will come into the war before you can succeed.

< Message edited by coregames -- 11/22/2006 11:15:09 PM >

_____________________________

"The creative combination lays bare the presumption of a lie." -- Lasker

Keith Henderson

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 40
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - INNER STRATEGIES WITHIN GRA... - 11/23/2006 12:23:28 AM   
trees

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

quote:

set the crop to the horses early on
What does this mean ?

A riding crop is what jockeys carry - a form of a whip.

To set the crop to the horses means to whip them - though not necessarily viciously, but with determination.

In the context it was used, the idea is for the Axis to go for immediate territorial gains without regard to US Entry.


Steve figured out my old-timey metaphor, though I wasn't thinking too much about US Entry. What I meant was Patrice's post mentioned decisions for the Axis about the Med, and this touches on a basic approach to the game that the Axis must decide upon. If you are attacking Russia you can go all out in that direction, or you can use some assets expanding the Italian defensive perimeter. You can sprint out of the blocks to build a lead or you can pick a steady pace for the whole marathon. Japan has similar basic decisions to make; the economic goodies lie in one direction while the defensive perimeter against the US is the other way. As a couple other posters noted, Malta's main use for the Axis comes later when it is time to defend Italy. It does make a good fleet base for the Italians but it is not critical. I don't like to use it for the CW fleet until air superiority has been attained, it's rather vulnerable and with limited overseas supply it might not always be the best place to return to base. Now the CW player might not even be looking at it, preferring a large BEF to slow down the Germans vs. using some forces to defend Malta.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 41
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 1/26/2007 11:01:20 PM   
lavisj

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp
D.IV. France first
This is a high risk variation on the C.I (USSR First) Strategy. If France doesn't fall early, the Axis is doomed.
D.IV.1. France 39
D.IV.2. Poland 39/40
As soon as France falls, the Wermarcht turns back eastwards, quickly enough to defeat the Poles as soon as possible and be ready for the meat of the game, USSR.
D.IV.3. USSR 40/41
D.IV.4. Sideshow in the Med
Led by the Italians with some German support


Patrice, as I am trying this very strategy in my game (and although it seems that France first, then poland, then Russian campaign 40) is what will happen, I think that it is more a fluke than anything, and that this strategy should be more adapted to a variation of the Med Strategy.

The reason is that for a France Frist / Barb. 40, the schedule is very tight.
1. France must fall no later than N/D 39 and Poland no later than M/A 40 for a M/J 40 attack on Russia. Of course the attack could be delayed to J/A 40, but even then it is tight.
2. Russia can easily forbid such an attack by stuffing his border and calling back a couple of his Siberian Units.

It is therefore unlikely that the France will be followed by a Russia 1940, and the more logical step would be to go after Spain and Gibraltar (unless of course things go well and Russia is nice enough to let you do it).

Of course the advantage of an early fall of France are obvious, more BP and more ressources that can be LL to an active Italy earlier. Beyond that, the benefit is minimal, because the conquest of Poland requires a large investment of units in JF and MA 40.

Now I will let you know later how the Russian campaign in 1940 goes, and if it can be done, maybee the risk is worth it?

Just my 2 cents
Jerome

Just my 2 cents.

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 42
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 1/27/2007 3:47:32 AM   
Jimm


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Status: offline 		Currently doing a DOD3 game as Germany. France opportunitistically taken 1937-8 (oops maginot line left open....) but current situation ND 1939 US just in war vs Germany only, CW still neutral. Russia aligned Turkey, Free France in Syria, POland free and looking more threatened by Russia than Germany.

just shows how difficult AI will be to program if we ever get a DOD add on...



(in reply to lavisj)
Post #: 43
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/12/2007 11:30:50 PM   
lavisj

 

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Status: offline 		Barbarossa 1940 after France first:
As promised I am letting you know how the Barbarossa 1940 went..... well, it was devastating. We are in the middle of M/J 1941 and Russia is crumbeling in the Urals with only 8 units in the area. So, Russia I think is as good as dead. I have been able to divert large amount of forces to the West (forced to, since the US has been in the war since S/O 40). But no reinforcement has been needed  in Russia since the end of the summer of 40 except for 3-4 armors/mechs.

So, if the France first can be followed by a Barb 1940 it will win the game for the axis. So this should be an oportunity that Germany should look for.
In the case of a France first, Germany will have to make the decision in N/D 39 wether to go after Russia or England and/or Spain. In my case, I wasn't fully ready in M/J 40, which is that Poland had just fallen, but I had no impulse to properly deploy the units on the border, but even then, Russia was unable to stop the german steamroller until the Asian map was reached, and even then, only because of weather and some incredibly lucky rolls.

So, I think that if the computer goes for a France first, he should be looking at the russian N/D 39 setup and wether Russia will be able to stuff by M/J 40 or not..... unlikely unless he already started.

This also means for the Russian AI, that if Germany deploys for a France first, he MUST stuff the border ASAP, and this will require a couple of units from Asia to be railed to the Polish border (which requires times). For Russia not to stuff in this case is inviting disaster.

my 2 cents
Jerome

< Message edited by lavisj -- 3/12/2007 11:32:28 PM >

(in reply to Jimm)
Post #: 44
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 12:49:04 AM   
Froonp


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Status: offline 		No offense meant, but may I also add that this particular devastating result was helped by having somehow "cooperative" CW and US, as you had in your game IIRC. Am I wrong saying that If you had had a more competent CW player, it could have been a different story ? It seems to me that if the US went to war in S/O 40, Italy should not have survived 1941 alive.

Anyway, I think that this shows that when you've defeated France, the sooner you attack Russia the better, even if it is latter than M/J 40.

Also, I think that your conclusion about the Russian stuffing the border might be right.
Maybe this can also be widened to : The Russian should always try to stuff the border when the German is away, and only change his mind when he sees that the German will beat his stuff, and when there is enough time to fall back to deep defenses. It's only an idea out of thin air, I'm not a specialized Russian player.

(in reply to lavisj)
Post #: 45
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 4:30:38 AM   
lavisj

 

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Status: offline 		Patrice,

You are correct that the CW has been a help, and the US is not doing much [actually our CW is improving his game quickly]. This is why I have not talked much about what happened outside Russia.
But even an active CW player with good US support could not do much in 1941 to prevent the fall of Russia. It is true that Italy could be under pressure, and pushed back into the Italian Sea Zone (instead of taking Malta, Egypt and India as in our game), BUT considering that every land and air reinforcement from Germany is not really necessary in Russia past J/A 40, all those troops can be used to bolster Italy (In our game, Italy is actually garrisoned mostly with German units). Basically only 4 movers or above are sent to Siberia. And France can be pretty well defended. But mostly by J/F 1941 German production is impressive. [base of 35] And that should allow Germany to build out its airforce quickly which will make Italy a very tough nut to crack. The core of my army in Russia has not changed since M/A 40 except the 3 ARM and MECH sent as reinforcements.
Besides, all those Russian ressources allow for  massive lend lease to Italy, which allows Italy to have full production for most of 1940 and all of 1941. This will make for a tough nut to crack for the CW even with strong US support.

Also, even with our very aggressive play as the axis, I think that a US entering the war in S/O 40 is a flucke, and should not happen very often. Therefore that would seriously limit the ability of the CW to conquer Italy. If you combine that with an agressive sub warfare in the fall-winter of 40-41, you will limit CW hability to react.

So, even if I agree with your premise (that my CW and US adversary made many mistakes), I believe that a Barb 40 is a winner IF France has fallen in a France first, regardless of what the CW can do. After all, even if Italy falls in 1941, Russia also falls in 1941, and I would believe that Allied troops in Europe would be in serious trouble when in 1941-42, the entire German army (except the garrisons in Russia) turns back west to expell them. But I still do not believe it would be easy for the CW to conquer Italy.

Basically, I do not believe possible for the CW and US to force Germany to withdraw enough troops from Russia to prevent the fall of Russia in a Barb 40 scenario. The only thing that was making our game dicey was the very early US entry into the war... otherwise the game was over by J/A 40.

Now, of course I only base my analysis from a single experience, so if others tried the same strategy with different results, let me know.

Jerome

PS: No offense taken whatsoever :)

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 46
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 5:30:19 AM   
lomyrin


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Status: offline 		Most certainly a 40 Barbarossa almost always spells doom for Russia. The real question is why was such a war possible? Russia absolutely can, and has to, garrison against Germany  so that a 40 Barbarossa is not possible.  That still should have the German AI take advantage of a Russia that for some reason has not safeguarded its border. A Russia tied down in Manchuria against Japan might be something the German AI can take into consideration.

Lars

(in reply to lavisj)
Post #: 47
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 6:11:47 AM   
lavisj

 

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Status: offline 		In our case, Russia only saw it coming too late, and had no time to stuff.
The problem for Russia is that it seems (if I did not screw up the math) that even if Russia moves all of its European units towards the border AND its production, it is dicey wether Germany can break the pact or not in M/A 40. For Russia to prohibit Germany for making the attack possible he needs ALL European units AND a couple from the Asian map. That means that Russia must start very early to move its units up, and that it can not do anything meaningfull in the meantime (Rumania / Persia etc.....).

But I agree that in the case of a German deployment against France initially, Russia should do this all out stuffing until he is sure Germany goes somewhere else.

(in reply to lomyrin)
Post #: 48
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 8:10:21 AM   
c92nichj


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Status: offline 		France need to hold out until atleast M/J '40 any other scenario spells doom to the allied player. Thats why I refuse to play suprised zoc if applied in '39 against the low countries.

Also always blockade the north Sea with CW and keep CW troops on transport so they can enter Rotterdam or Antwerp, keep those troops under CW air protection.

Main balancing point in WIF I have a problem with is France falls to easily in '39 france is to tough in '40 and Russia to weak in '41.

Not sure what set of options that would weaken france but strengthen Russia.

(in reply to lavisj)
Post #: 49
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 9:06:19 AM   
Froonp


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quote:

You are correct that the CW has been a help, and the US is not doing much [actually our CW is improving his game quickly]. This is why I have not talked much about what happened outside Russia.
But even an active CW player with good US support could not do much in 1941 to prevent the fall of Russia. It is true that Italy could be under pressure, and pushed back into the Italian Sea Zone (instead of taking Malta, Egypt and India as in our game), BUT considering that every land and air reinforcement from Germany is not really necessary in Russia past J/A 40, all those troops can be used to bolster Italy (In our game, Italy is actually garrisoned mostly with German units).

By loosing nearly all his sealift, the CW gave you the possibility of fighting only one war at a time, that's why it is so successful, plus also because your russian seems also to have lost nearly all his factories in your advance.

Putting Italy under pressure, especially with an US entering the war in S/O 40, is not only absorbing German reinforcements, but it also absorbs German activities limits, which did not happen in your game, giving you a free ride into Russia.

Lots of things can be done by the CW in 41, when he have all his teeth, that can divert both reinforcements, activity limits and attention of Germany from Russia. As the CW for example in one game, with the US, took out Denmark, entered the Baltic and invaded / paradropped into Poland & the Baltic States. The German, threatened into being cut out from supply sources counter attacked and did push us back to the sea, but it gave an important relief to the Russian, which was all he needed to stop the German offensive in Russia.

(in reply to lavisj)
Post #: 50
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 9:09:46 AM   
Froonp


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quote:

The problem for Russia is that it seems (if I did not screw up the math) that even if Russia moves all of its European units towards the border AND its production, it is dicey wether Germany can break the pact or not in M/A 40. For Russia to prohibit Germany for making the attack possible he needs ALL European units AND a couple from the Asian map. That means that Russia must start very early to move its units up, and that it can not do anything meaningfull in the meantime (Rumania / Persia etc.....).

I'm quite surprised by this.
I would have though that, given that the troops defensive garrison value is doubled in 1940, and that the German Army is not THAT big in 1940, it was quite easy for the Russian to block a 1940 DoW, especially in the case you cite of "if Russia moves all of its European units towards the border AND its production", but I haven't done any math about it.

(in reply to lavisj)
Post #: 51
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 3:03:46 PM   
lavisj

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp
By loosing nearly all his sealift, the CW gave you the possibility of fighting only one war at a time, that's why it is so successful, plus also because your russian seems also to have lost nearly all his factories in your advance.


I agree there. I was able to fight the Russians without interference. But I still forced myself to take navals and airs in order to maintain pressure on the CW.

quote:

Putting Italy under pressure, especially with an US entering the war in S/O 40, is not only absorbing German reinforcements, but it also absorbs German activities limits, which did not happen in your game, giving you a free ride into Russia.


Yes, the biggest drain that it could have been would have been on air limits for sending planes into the Sea Zone. The defense of Italy itself requires mostly ground supports and land movements which are no problems. And as I said before, that would probably put Italy into a very defensive position.

quote:

Lots of things can be done by the CW in 41, when he have all his teeth, that can divert both reinforcements, activity limits and attention of Germany from Russia. As the CW for example in one game, with the US, took out Denmark, entered the Baltic and invaded / paradropped into Poland & the Baltic States. The German, threatened into being cut out from supply sources counter attacked and did push us back to the sea, but it gave an important relief to the Russian, which was all he needed to stop the German offensive in Russia.


But are you talking about a 1941 Barbarossa or 1940? In any case, I do not know with certainty wether I am right or not. It is only my guess based on the available units I had to garrison the West. Denmark is currently garrisoned with 3 units supported by 1 good FTR and 2 Bombers. France is strongly garrisoned and has lots of air cover. Italy has 5 german units in it and 2 german planes. All I am saying is I can accept the Italian set back if that means conquering Russia, while the France / Denmark coast can be garrisoned enough to deter or contain an invasion.
I think you are right though that with the US entering the war in S/O 40, CW + US could have done lots of damages if they had prepared adequately for a major offensive against Germany in M/J 41 (I was expecting it, and think I was ready for it), but in most games the US will not be in the war (or barely in the war) at that time. But really when the summer of 41 hits, the Russian army was already mauled beyond repair. and having railed only 5 factories to Siberia (with only 3 usable), he could not build up..... but this is what a 1940 Barbarossa does, the Russian has no way to effectively delay the German advance.

But to tell you the truth, you are bringing strong arguments and my game experience being very limited (especially compared to yours), I can only offer what I will call a perception. I also feel that the France First / Barb 40 has not been experienced by many (if any) this is why I wanted to share the experiment. I agree that it would have been a more interesting report had the CW/US couple been played by more experienced player. (But then again, I am not an experienced player either).

Jerome


< Message edited by lavisj -- 3/13/2007 5:47:08 PM >

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 52
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/13/2007 7:57:10 PM   
lavisj

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp
I'm quite surprised by this.
I would have though that, given that the troops defensive garrison value is doubled in 1940, and that the German Army is not THAT big in 1940, it was quite easy for the Russian to block a 1940 DoW, especially in the case you cite of "if Russia moves all of its European units towards the border AND its production", but I haven't done any math about it.


So was I when I first looked at it:
But the Russian Setup in Europe is as follow:
1 HQ-I, 1 MECH, 2 INF, 2 GAR, 1 CAV, 4 planes and 2 div for a garrison value of 13.
If you add to that the available production for stuffing, that is the productions of S/O 39 and N/D 39 (subsequent are only produced in M/J and can not make it to the border), you can increase the garison by only 5 points (Russia only builds at 8 in 1939). So the grand total for Russia would be 18 points.

Germany starts (excluding garrison and Militia units) with a potential of 57.5 points (including the reinforcements already on the spiral). In order to break the pact it needs 18*4 which is 72 points. So it is missing 15 points.
Considering it would have the SS Paris militia, it only need to build 13 garrison points by M/J 40 (as Konigsberg is in range of the border). Considering Germany has 2 ARM and 2 MECH in its force pool, that is already 8 garison points for 22 BP. This leaves more than enough to build the extra 5 points.

So if Russia puts all of its European force and its reinforcements on the polish border, he will still get creamed. In order for Russia to adequately stuff he needs a few of the units that start on the Asian map. And in order to do that he needs at least two turns. So he needs to start railing in J/F. Also since J/F and M/A can be very short (5 moves total for both turns in our previous game), he needs to start stuffing almost right away. As I said that means that he leaves Leningrad empty, Odessa empty, that he does not claim Roumania (otherwise as the german you force him to declare war, and then Germany is sure to break the pact).

So, here you have my math....... basically, a France First means the Russian player must prepare for the worst from the start.

Jerome

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 53
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/14/2007 6:39:27 AM   
coregames


Posts: 470
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quote:

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

Most certainly a 40 Barbarossa almost always spells doom for Russia.


Why? A DoW requires giving Russia a year of extra income, 14 reserve land units after you declare war, and German troops not redeployed from France yet (even if France does fall early). The German advantage over the Russians is much greater in '41 than '40, with their superior income and all those extra troops from France ready to roll in the first clear weather impulse of the DoW turn. Also, the benefits of the surprise impulse are enhanced by a larger force. And don't forget, if the Germans head East with too much force, the CW will create a beach head and expand it.

_____________________________

"The creative combination lays bare the presumption of a lie." -- Lasker

Keith Henderson

(in reply to lomyrin)
Post #: 54
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/14/2007 7:05:57 AM   
lomyrin


Posts: 3741
Joined: 12/21/2005
From: San Diego
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in 40 the Russians simply do not have enough units to hold any kind of front and with Rumania and Finland to keep the flanks busy the Russians have no choice but to perform a rapid retreat to save at least a few core units and HQ's for later on. Even with a not that numerous German force they will rapidly take many Russian factories that could not be railed out in time and capture many resources in Russia.

I have personally seen 2 such games, one in which I tried in vain to defend Russia after we had agreed on performing a 40 Barbarossa,( I as the Russian then withdrew from garrison points to allow the DoW).

In the other game the Russians had a few units in a posture threatening Manchuria. allowing the necessary Garison to DoW by Germany. By July 40 Moscow and Stalingrad had fallen and when Swerdlovsk fell in summer of 42 the Russians gave up, having already lost all of the Caucasus. The German and Italian production was very large at that time and the Allies would have a very difficult time in the west. As the German I had a very fine time.

Lars



(in reply to coregames)
Post #: 55
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/14/2007 9:04:49 AM   
coregames


Posts: 470
Joined: 8/12/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

...the Russians have no choice but to perform a rapid retreat to save at least a few core units and HQ's for later on.



This assumes the Russians are set up near the border with Germany. In the games you mention, were the Russians set up close to the border? If so, Germany just capitalized on their mistake. If Germany has the garrison to DoW anyway, Russia should set up behind the Dvina and Dnieper rivers, relying on a few reserves and perhaps a garrison or two as speed bumps to prevent a rapid advance. Russia has enough force to defend these lines, with the Pripet Marshes pinning the middle. These are the positions Russia would retreat to anyway; might as well start there and conserve forces. The extra .5 production multiple will help the Russians survive against the limited force the Germans can redeploy from France in time for the attack. As others have pointed out, such an early DoW also means the CW will be given a free hand to open an early second front.

There are merits to a 1940 attack, but also drawbacks. I don't think it's so clear-cut as to say such a move spells almost certain doom for the Russians.

_____________________________

"The creative combination lays bare the presumption of a lie." -- Lasker

Keith Henderson

(in reply to lomyrin)
Post #: 56
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/14/2007 9:53:52 AM   
Froonp


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From: Marseilles, France
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quote:

This assumes the Russians are set up near the border with Germany. In the games you mention, were the Russians set up close to the border? If so, Germany just capitalized on their mistake.

Yes, but if the Russian want to prevent the Germans to reach the necessary garrison ration to DoW them, they need to deploy forward in early 40, at least to try to prevent the DoW, don't they ?

Even if Jérôme (lavisj) did the math, and that the math give the advantage to the Germans, we all know that time is needed for the German to put all his garrison points on the border. France needs to fall in N/D 39 att the latest, for a properly placed German army in M/J 40 (at least this is my estimation for a 41 Barb, that is the German must have finished in the west in N/D 40 at the latest to be ready in M/J 41).

N/D is even later than latest IMO, so if the German are not 100% properly deployed in M/J 40, isn't it a good thing that the Russian is ready to take advantage of that ?

(in reply to coregames)
Post #: 57
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/14/2007 12:06:29 PM   
coregames


Posts: 470
Joined: 8/12/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

Yes, but if the Russian want to prevent the Germans to reach the necessary garrison ration to DoW them, they need to deploy forward in early 40, at least to try to prevent the DoW, don't they ?




I agree that if the Russians can prevent a threatened DoW in '40 with certainty, they may be well-advised to do so. I was just commenting on the statement that a '40 attack almost always crushes the Russians. Germany has plenty of reasons not to try an attack in '40, even if France falls very early.

< Message edited by coregames -- 3/14/2007 12:08:10 PM >

_____________________________

"The creative combination lays bare the presumption of a lie." -- Lasker

Keith Henderson

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 58
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/14/2007 8:42:35 PM   
CBoehm

 

Posts: 113
Joined: 10/31/2005
From: Aarhus, Denmark
Status: offline 		If france falls early I would be much more concerned about the possibility of Ge advancing through Spain to seize GIB in time to redeploy and do a 41 barb ....than a 40 barb ...also IMO if USSR sees this coming they SHOULD be able to hold the garrison no problem but I havent done the math on this yet. (ofcause things might be different if USSR has allowed itself to be bugged down vs. JP )

(in reply to coregames)
Post #: 59
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/15/2007 12:00:27 AM   
lavisj

 

Posts: 89
Joined: 10/17/2006
Status: offline 		Ok, so if we keep it in line with the subject the thread, which is AI:
German AI:
Assuming the German AI went for a France First and this France First was succesfull (France falls in N/D 40 or is going to fallin N/D 40) then:
   1. The AI should evaluate the ability of Russia to successfully stuff the border, Basically if Russia has not started yet, it is unlikely it will.
   2. Then it can decide to go for a Barbarossa 40 or not. As was said previously, there are plenty of other options.

From the Russian perspective we agree that to be attacked in 1940, is very bad for Russia, at the very least it can very extremely dangerous, and should probably avoided at all cost. Since Russia can guarantee the garrison ratio. the AI should probably do so if Germany does a France first.

I would even contend that it would be much easier to capitalize on a Russia AI in a Barb 40 than a player Russia, as I doubt an AI can be equivalent to a good player. Therefore an AI should never allow a Barb 40 to happen.

I have enjoyed all the different view points brought up in this debate. To conclude I would like to say that as Germany I would probably not try it again as the timetable is very strained for it to succeed.

(in reply to CBoehm)
Post #: 60
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