Cap Mandrake
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Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JudgeDredd
quote:
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
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That the plan was devised as a tail wagging the dog strategy to divert attention from domestic Argentinian issues there is no doubt, but the question I have is..who in the Argentine decision-making hierarchy could have possibly believed the Brits would let such a profound national insult stand? Did they really think they could win, eventually? Did they expect they could negotiate after taking the islands by force?
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As I mentioned earlier Cap Mandrake, Britain, financially, militarily and politically was in a bad way.
I reckon the Argentinian Junta of the time made a calculated guess that the British would not be able to launch a task force of any credible size, nevermind in the time scale required.
I reckon they thought it would take Britain quite some time to get a task force together and it wouldn't be enough anyway. Also, I think they were hoping that, in this time, the solution would be found politically in the UN.
Lets be brutally honest here...the Junta were in a state. They needed the Falklands back under the Argentinian flag. Now that we understand that was the case, it makes sense to assume that when they took them, they meant to keep them. Now that we understand that, we can see that by using their least capable units, recruits and conscripts, they clearly thought we wouldn't show up and, even if we did, it would be too late because the UN would've sorted it out and, should worst come to worst and they had to fight, the British forces would be too weak and too outnumbered to perform the task they had been assigned.
I truly believe they thought it would be sorted out at the political level within the UN and if not, Britain was too week to do anything about it. The fact that Britain had ammassed a major task force within a week, completely threw them and they were buggered from that point.
As for Maggie. I didn't like her much. She made some extremely poor desicions in her time as PM...but she had more balls than some of the arses who have succeeded her! I'll give her that. Her main failing was to not to listen....not to listen to the people, and not to listen to her advisors. There are times (The Falklands Conflict was one) where people need to stand up and hold strong and she did that...trouble was, she did it with avery decision she ever made!
Yes, I suppose it is possible they underestimated British resolve and capabilities. There is a historical precedent for that kind of thing. Somebody thought it was a good idea to bomb Pearl Harbor.
I liked Thatcher  One of my favorite Thatcherisms is when she reportedly told Reagan during some face off with the Soviets..."this is no time go wobbly" 
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RE: The Falklands Conflict - 
I would love to know.... 
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