npilgaard
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Old list posts on Axis invasion on Gibraltar (note: those posts are written before the updated unit set, incl. the Portuguese unit).
quote:
Post:
66814 :
"Here are my thoughts on Gibraltar, but they are based on the following:
+ We use 2d10
+ We use LoC Vichy
We also use LoS. So no Portugeuse shenanigans for the Axis, among other things.
Last game I (as GER) planned a Gib invasion. I did not threaten Spain
overland. I lent heavily to Italy from the beginning. Italy built one
Amph immediately, followed by Para's, Marines, Atr and so forth, in
addition to their naval bomber and long range fighter production.
Germany concentrated on gettings its Ftr3 out, along with marines,
paras and the long ranged Ftr2 (He112 and He110).
There are many strategies for fighting for the Rock. Specifically,
cutting supply, playing OC, etc. In my opinion with the above rules
these are not worth it. Here's why:
In our game, Jeff clearly recognized I was going for Gib. He DoW'd
Portugal, garrisoned Gib with 2 white print (one was HQ) and an
engineer, then stacked 5 Ftr there. Large numbers of additional Ftr3
and a couple long ranged Ftr2 based in Portugal. As 41 began,
additional Ftr2 (average range of 5 or 6) began rebasing from the UK
to bolster the RAF in Port. Furthermore, he maintained a sizable navy
in a low box of the CSV with CV and multiple TRS in it.
Germany conquered Algeria and made Morocco go Vichy, then claimed the
concession to do FTC there. I put Guderian and von Dweeb in Morocco,
along with 6 Ftr (early on, just 5 Ftr and 1 Nav which raided the
North Atlantic).
Jeff built a bit aggressive, managed to put something like 10 Ftr in
the area to my 8 or so (counting Italians). Realize that a key
weakness of the German air force at this point is that you only have 2
(3 if you count the range 6 Italian) long range Ftr2 and one of those
is only a 3 A2A; this means your air force is pretty brittle because
you only have one good Ftr2 and once it gets shot down or aborted then
the Brits have the advantage in the air. Of course, in 41 you can
bring in the Fw190 and more Ftr3 which helps but the British will add
several of their good Ftr2 as well.
In any event, I found that I did not have enough planes to blast Gib
and blast the RN in the same impulse. Splitting your forces just lets
the Brit gang up on one and (probably) torch it. Like I said, your air
force is much more brittle than theirs.
A total air-2-sea battle won't achieve much. Even with a serious
advantage like a 1/10 split, your surprise will be used to equalize
the A2A advantage that the Brits enjoy. Did I mention that your air
force is brittle and his isn't?
Worse, if you do fly against his navy, you don't have the oomph to try
nailing the Rock. You are going to need Ftr to escort your ground
strikes and paradrops, as well as maybe 1 to fly against ground
support assuming that the Brits fly it and it could change the odds.
Its been my experience under this British 'surge' of AC to the CSV
area that the EuroAxis must roll like demons to kill Brits while the
Brits have to keep missing, and you have to do this several times to
make a difference. It can happen, but I'd rather not base my Gib plan
on it, because it can happen the other way (in this game it did, with
the RAF pasting the Axis). Bottom line, except for the occasional
snipe which is still useful, the German should not go for cutting
supply as a dedicated strategy. I know others feel differently.
OC are all but useless on Gib invasions. They double your force
strength, allow more SB and so forth sure, but this changes the odds
by a +1? Surely not more than a +2 maximum. There are better places to
waste 15BP. Perhaps, perhaps you may use it on the last ditch last
gasp attack before turning on Russia (assuming Barb) but I'd still
probably say no. That OC could shatter a line and allow you to cripple
Russia.
I've mentioned several disadvantages for the Axis, but the key is that
you still have initiative. You can afford to do air impulses, etc. Its
certainly possible to fly all your planes on a ground strike and then
reorg them all. The Brit is usually under other constraints, after all
he must reorg his land units, etc. which requires more reorg, because
he is basing planes, sailing in more ships, etc.
Furthermore, he must CAP for ground strike, so the large air force in
Portugal isn't there to defend against every ground strike. This means
that the Axis can often claim superiority in the air when you do a
major bombing attempt. Not to mention that you can launch nuisance
raids with bombers at night one at a time (if playing with night
missions) or fly 2 missions at the same time (night and day) which
either use up 1 Ftr or flip some units (land and air on the ground) or
manage both.
With the 2d10, Gib is not about odds or OC or supply. It is about
plusses, which really means it is about flips. Reorg your AC to go
again and finish off the Brit response to your first wave of ground
strikes, if he is short of AC or can't respond by this point then you
invade.
Figure that:
+ attack odds give you a +1
+ flips gain +5 more
+ land with para, para div and marine for +2 more
+ -1 for coop with Italians
This yields about a +7. Note that half of the corps in each battle are
Italian by the way (GE Mar, Para div + IT Para, OR GE Para, div + IT
Mar). Save some SB for the second attack, plan on this one failing.
I'd rather be able to do two +6 attacks back to back than a +7 and
then a +5.
With the Amph and 2nd Italian TRS plus their ATR, you have the ability
to launch followup invasions in the same turn in the long months.
These invasions can use HQI (Balbo forex gives a +2 to the attack).
Repeated pounding of the Rock should prove sufficient but your odds
are never going to be greater than 35% or so. Have a due date for your
Barb or whatever in mind, when you hit that point you will probably
have to focus on Russian rather than the Rock if it has not fallen
yet. Even so, you should be able to mount several attacks on Gib
before then. I think my second attack succeeded but it may have been
my third.
If the Brit does a 'surge' like I have described, its a lot tougher.
Good dice in an air battle can trash your plans very easily by
bouncing an ATR or shooting down your range 6 Stuka or the vital
He100. You have to use your reorg advantage to concentrate on air
battles where you have the advantage, reorg and then fly again. The
Italian helps out here bigtime.
Remember, aborting planes is *sometimes* better than shooting them
down; shot down AC allow AC from Portugal to rebase into Gib and
stack, which makes them infinitely more flexible.
In our game, Jeff held out til mid 41; an excellent round of combat
saw 10 of my AC in theater shot down for 2 of his, IIRC. However, this
was followed up next turn by a full press with everything we had, in
which a trash Gabbiano flew (unescorted and unintercepted?) to flip
Alexander on a 1, which then allowed the attack and we rolled an 18.
Even then it was pretty hairy in the paradrop with the Brit Mosquito
and friends trying to stop the night drop at -2 odds. I got through,
could just have easily not made it.
The only complaint I could make on his play is that I'd have put more
land units in Portugal; when it fell there were lots of facedown AC
there for my rampaging Spaniards to kill. I think I killed 9 AC
facedown in Gib and Portugal.
This brings up the point, the disadvantage of the surge is, if you
lose Gib, you are going to lose 5-7 AC (and pilots) probably as well,
certainly 4-5 Ftr in Gib itself that are flipped. So it is painful.
So as the CW, plan for the Rock to fall and have some blockers in
position to salvage some of that, I dunno, maybe with Gort on the
coast (a 2nd unit and SB should protect them well enough, its close to
the end of turn).
Anyways, this was my $0.02"
quote:
Post:
"> Bryce I'd like to point out a few things that you might consider if
> you tried this again that would help your euroaxis take Gib by
> invasion.
OK, lessee...
> 1) If you don't even bother with ground striking Gibraltar till it's
> oos those 5 fighters in Gibraltar do not fly as they are oos.
OOS means that we've fought a series of naval air battles in the CSV
and the battered RN has called it quits. This is a valid strategy if
it can be done in a reasonable manner.
And in a serious case like this, you bet I would react with Alexander
to get 4 FTR up in the air.
Can it be done? YES, not much here to assault Gib with at this point.
I play with LoC Vichy. That means Morocco is de facto Vichy, ALWAYS.
That means the Germans are faced with FTC in Morocco, and thus it is
reasonable to expect them to be able to base 6 FTR in Morocco plus 2 HQ.
> 2) If you just concentrate on CSV you will gain a favorable rate of
> attrition that will later let you take the Rock.
See above, Lane. Breaking the RN is a laudable goal, but Gib or no Gib
I as Germany intend to break Russia's back. So its Barb as soon as
possible. Can you do both? Sure, but you are counting on luck to
initiate battles, and with the rules I use even then you can't have 1
little thing go wrong with the battle or Uncle Adolph is wearing
doodoo makeup. That's bad.
Suppose I do as you suggest: I fly out 6 long range FTR into the 2
box, rebase another 6 range-3 FTR to react out to the 1 box next
impulse. Suppose I do this in MA41, MJ41 and SO41 (its going to take a
while to get those numbers up). I imagine I'll have what, about 4-5
Nav available as well, so 3-4 in the 2 box and 1 in the low box? Now
assume that I have 3, 4 and 5 impulses to search each turn respectively.
Assuming average rolls, I figure to have my air force in 5 out of 20
searches. In 2 of those search situations my air force will be split,
so lets assume the British just pick 1 box and beat it to a total pulp
(worst case, you lose 1 Ftr and 1 Nav).
Can this work? Yes, but it doesn't work fast. I still think I can push
it back so that even your Barb42 is delayed. I'll happily lose Gib in
MJ42 if it costs you your campaign weather in Russia, cause there'll
be GBA breakfasting in Berlin in 44.
> 3) When you are fighting from Morr with FTC the HQ's can obviously
> reorg your FTR's but more importantly you can "cycle" to double the
> number of possible FTR's based there. This means you put 6 4+ range
> planes there and send em to the 2 box. Then rebase in 4 or 5
This is an excellent strategy for fighting primarily out of the 1 box,
and yep, I considered it a couple times. Can it be done? You bet.
But what you've posited is the absolute best of all situations. On
average, it doesn't turn out nearly as great as it can. What I mean
is, on one turn you can have 10-12 FTR all in the 1 box. Next turn 6
of those will be in the 0 box, then rebase home unflip and fly back
out to the 1 box. Or you can do roughly the same but occasionally go
into the 2 box.
The bottom line however Lane, at least in my book, is that half the
time your FTR are not with each other. As the Axis, I'd sure hate for
the British to find my 6 FTR with their 12-15 FTR...sure they'd only
get one shot, but at +9 they'll probably get in a good hit, and your
chance of giving them a bounce on a Condor is what now? Or did they
all fly home so the Brits bounce a loser FTR and smoke it.
I've done something like this before and if the British a) surge
forward their AC and b) garrison Portugal intelligently, they have
just as good a chance of nailing your AC as you do theirs (just that
they will only nail 1 or 2 before you abort to the box).
If the German finds me 1 out of 5 times, but 1/3 of the time 6 FTR are
in the 0 box, then that roughly translates into him being able to
pound me 2/15's of the time. I'll eagerly accept those odds, because
his ability to trash me during the whole summer of 1941 is now pretty
darned small!
Now yes, we also have to add in the searches where the Brits find but
don't have enough suprise points to avoid. But reasonably we can guess
they won't initiate combat on their turns most of the time? So suppose
its closer to about 5 out of 20?
> 4) The euroaxis have enough planes with air to sea to really hurt
> the RN. The key are the 8 floatplanes and condors that don't mess
> with stacking in Algeria. They have a total of 20 air to sea factors
> and must be protected by other LND flying in front to take all the
> DA's and DX's.
I'd sure agree with you. Of course you've committed Germany to
building her Condor, this will happen in 41? I found that building 2
of these negatively impacted my readiness for Barb42 when combined
with all the LL I gave to Italy.
> 5) Entry by FTC into Morr is the worst case scenario. Having it go
> FF and not being limited by FTC is better even than having to fight
> the Brits for it.
I think you are dead wrong, because when I am the CW and it goes FF,
its got damn near every trooper I can put there without risking a
Sealion without Italy.
Sure you can over time get the troops and planes into range to push me
out...maybe. But until you do, no massvie CSV battles for you unless
you want to die.
So yeah you finally nail Morocco, finally start flying your air force
into the 1 box, oh dear, look at the time...SO41 is already here, time
flies when you're having fun. Now what do you do? I'd prefer to do a
Barb42, remember?
> 6) The campaign in CSV needs to begin as soon as possible. You want
> to begin the attritional process as soon as you can. Every CV sunk
> is a back plane out of the campaign for Gibraltar. Moreover, the CW
> can not afford to replace killed FTR's as easily as you can simply
> from a production standpoint.
Assuming you kill them sure. CVP I am not so sure, they take a long
time but the pilots often live and the CVP costs 1. FTR? Cheap by any
price, and they get there just by flying into the Bay of Biscuits (the
long range 41 guys can just rebase in). Oh, any sub attack in BoB
allows them to freely rebase in too.
I agree that spanking the navy will do as you say. I think we're at
loggerheads as to how often your 1 box armada is going to do that. If
its a 15% each search then you may find that your grand air battles
leave a lot to be desired.
> 7) Impulse choice is crucial. The CW can not react FTR's to the 2+
> box. They need a naval move to put ships there and an air to move
> more than 5 FTR's. When you get the initiative you have a huge
Lane, if I was the CW and had a FF Morocco, there wouldn't be a huge
Axis FTR force in the CSV at all until Morocco went down, and I
suspect that this would take longer than you think, especially as I'd
have all winter to beef it up. What, are you going to invade the UK
with every FTR down in the Med?
If instead you had FTC and I had Portugal, I'd do a surge, beef up
Portugal with 2/3rd's the army that would have been in Morocco and my
fleet would probably start in the 2 box and then fight from the 1 box
once all the boys in gray showed up.
> 8) Don't even look at Gibraltar untill you drive off the RN in CSV.
> Concentrate everything upon that campaign. When the RN goes away
> it's normally because they've lost way too many FTR's and will be
> unable or unwilling to come right back the following turn.
Lane, I may be wrong, ok? But my thought here is simply that the
frequency of your successful searches means that the battle takes too
long. I'll stretch it out any way I can and I really only have to last
til SO41, in my book. Sure I may lose Gib after that, and I've lost
ships but so the fudge what? Germany will not be busting Russia's
nuts, and the Western Allies will be fighting like hell to retake crap
soon enough.
> 9) Do whatever else you can manage to be annoying to the CW. Other
> than you air impulse off the bat each turn you've got all the naval
> moves in the world to screw with them. Put a couple HQ's around
> Brest and keep reorging subs and ships and send them out again.
These are all good ideas.
> 10) If you can not take the Rock early enough to allow a 41 Barb nod
> your head at the CW and keep pounding them. Smile and say ok now
> I've got another year to sink your ships and take it. Moreover,
> you've got another year where you do not need to use any land units
> and should save a nice amount of oil.
If you can consistently apply the above strategy in your games and
manage 41 invasions, my hat is off, but I'd have to see it to believe
it. I'd like to be your CW player, cuz I'd smile and say yes another
year for Russia to position themselves.
> Hope something here was helpfull.
You have lots of great ideas here. But the FREQUENCY of the battles is
low, and that means that each battle has to be high CW losses in the
air. I see the opposite risk also being true; the CW will often be
your rough equal in the air, and 1/3 of the time will be your definite
superior in the air. Even though you just fight one round in those bad
times, its going to be bounced Condors and good FTR fighting at -9 for
you. And that is ugly.
I do not believe that the norm will be near the best, which is what
you posit here. But hey, I could be wrong. It'd be interesting to find
out sometime. When are you in the bay area next?"
quote:
Post:
Bryce, 66040 :
"Lane brought another good point: invading Gib by sea. I found the best
way to do this is to:
+ conquer Algeria
+ make sure MAT goes to VF
+ demand FTC concession for Germany in Morocco
+ base 2 good HQ in Morocco (FTC of 6 or 7)
+ LL to Italy heavily, building ATR, Para, Mar, Amph, Ftr, Nav/Lnd3
+ initial German builds are Ftr3, Ftr, Nav, Para, Mar, Atr, Lnd3
+ late 40 German builds switch to strategy (Barb42, Med, Sealion)
Algeria is doable; Morocco usually is not. Your best bet then is to
make sure it goes Vichy, kick those Brits out to the spiral.
The British however can counter this effectively (as Jeff Wang did in
our last game):
+ conquer Portugal (be sure to invade the Azores)
+ rebase in all Ftr2 + 3xFtr3 into the CSV area
The Ftr2 stack in Gib, the Ftr3 stack in Port. Excess Ftr2 stack in
Port as well, and guard the CSV. With an HQ and Eng you can stack 5
Ftr2 in Gib. Its fairly effective.
With luck, Germany won't really get a shot at Gib until early 41.
You'll find that your Axis air force is outnumbered in the air if you
fly to sea, and about even if you ground strike. So figure Barb41 is out.
But thats the way it goes. Taking Gib is NOT about cutting supply. Its
great if you can do it, but its not your priority. You MUST:
+ flip all 3 units
+ launch repeated attacks (usually with 1 marine/2 para or 2
marine/1 para combinations. Follow up attacks in the same turn will
use fewer of the key units (para, marine) but can use the Italian Amph
and probably invading HQ (Balbo forex gives a +2 invasion bonus).
All this will allow you to launch about a +6 on the 2d10 (+5 for
flips, +0 for odds, -1 for coop, +2/+1 for para, 0/+2 for HQ).
Assuming the assault table, a 20 takes the hex, so a 13 can do the
job. Hopefully with 2-3 attacks you can roll well enough to do it,
assuming you flip the units. In our last game we did, but only because
after all AC flew for a couple impulses, we were kaput, until a
Gabbiano managed to flip Alexander on a 1.
Save your subs and naval bombers in the CSV to intercept TRS trying to
put new units into Gib. An abort of them (into Gib) is the same as
flipping the cargo, or it prevents reorg.
In 41, the Brit Ftr2 all gain in range, so now they can reach Gib from
Port. The German job gets tougher. Advancing Ftr2 is nice if you can
do it in time to matter.
Be wary during this time of initiating searches in the BoB. It just
allows the Brit free rebases of his Ftr to the CSV area."
quote:
Post:
LGB, 66049 :
"I should like to make one small point here. Every game I recall the
CW defending Gib from invasion they had Port, had a lot of fighters,
and Gibraltar always fell. The method outlined above about ignoring
supply and just invading the Rock over and over is fine but it's not
the way I go about it. Hell I get pissed off when Gibraltar falls
too fast.
The way I see it the euroaxis have more planes and more production
but stacking puts a limiting factor on how many planes you can put in
Morr. I'll keep some at sea and fly what I can from Alg but the
large point in CSV is that the worst that can happen in one round is
that the axis lose one plane and they abort back to the seazone.
Since stacking is an issue there should be spare planes to fill in
for losses.
The upside is a decent search roll split and getting planes through.
The CW can not afford to abort as they lose supply and defensive
shore bombarbment if you use that option. It has been my experience
that over time you grind down the CW at sea to the point they go
away. I like them reaching this point. Without supply planes in Gib
are not going to fly, flipping Gibraltar becomes less of an issue,
and without DSB a flipped oos Gib falls to repeated invasions.
So I think for someone thinking about invading or defending Gibraltar
both avenues should be kept in mind. Personally if the euroaxis want
the Rock and build properly they should be able to take it. Of
course the delay and cost the CW can impose can be critical, just be
carefull who the critical applies toward..."
Edit: Have split into sections (one post per section) for easier reading.
< Message edited by npilgaard -- 8/17/2007 11:55:09 PM >
_____________________________
Regards
Nikolaj
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