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The Churchill plan - 8/23/2007 6:27:34 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		The Churchill plan.

Having just won or lost, depending on who you ask, with my Ottoman Gamble against hjaco I thought I’d try again even though I know is it slightly gamy.

My reasons for an Entente declaration of war against the Ottomans in turn one are as follows.

The Ottoman Empire is the weakest of the Central Powers and, lets face it, I just really enjoy beating up on a guy lying down. I always felt I could kill a man easily enough – it’s the part where they shoot back that gives me problems.

The Anglo-France commitment needed to ensure an Ottoman surrender prior to Bulgarian entry is 3 corps and some HQ activation points. I feel I might well need to deploy a corps defensively anyway and the HQ’s would make no difference to the fate of France. I refuse to believe that 2-3 corps will decide if France lives or dies.

The real opportunity cost incurred is the Russian commitment of HQ activation points and corps precisely at the moment where they are most useful in the entire war. I feel that the options for the Russians against the Ottomans are somewhat analogues to Austrian options against Serbia – all or nothing: Either put enough force against them to ensure a 1914 victory or put nothing there at all. The all-out entente gamble to save France would entail putting absolutely everything into an all-out offensive against Vienna or Berlin forcing the Central powers to abandon their move on Paris.

My thinking goes like this: If France somehow manage a miracle and holds while I knock the Ottomans out that is essentially that: There is no way the Central Powers can survive without Ottoman resources while both Russia and France hold the field.

If France manages to hold out to early 1916 forcing the Central Powers to commit the bulk of their offensive power against them till then then I still feel I am in reasonable god shape with the Ottomans gone when one consider the total weight of war production.

Only if France falls and I fail to knock out the Ottoman Empire will there be a risk of being out produced by the Central powers – something that is virtually impossible unless I’m complete incompetent. Now, I freely admit that an early to mid 1915 fall of France would be very very bad but I believe I learned something from my previous game and will make sure to better preserve my forces trading space for time and forcing the central powers to advance without artillery support.

I don’t wish to provide screenshots just yet as we are still in the process of playing the first game turn but I’ll save some and give you guys an overview with one or two turns delay.


Post #: 1
RE: The Churchill plan - 8/23/2007 7:45:13 PM   
EUBanana


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From: Little England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ulver

The Ottoman Empire is the weakest of the Central Powers and, lets face it, I just really enjoy beating up on a guy lying down.




"I could happily kill a man if he was on the job."



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RE: The Churchill plan - 8/23/2007 8:08:40 PM   
ess1

 

Posts: 238
Joined: 9/13/2004
From: Newport, Shropshire, U.K.
Status: offline 		ulver , Looking forward to your report/s.

_____________________________


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RE: The Churchill plan - 8/23/2007 9:08:39 PM   
hjaco

 

Posts: 872
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Status: offline 		Well ever seen "Last man standing" with Bruce Willis ? Thats more me. Doesn't matter if the guy has a gun if i have a bigger one

Regarding your reasoning behind knocking out OE and its relevance to the war i will state that if Russia and France are both in the war by 1916 in a fairly decent shape CP is borscht OE or not OE

But hey, when could the two of us last agree on anything ?

(in reply to ess1)
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RE: The Churchill plan - 8/23/2007 10:16:29 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		The Churchill plan, a brainchild of the first sea lord Winston Spencer Churchill, has a single operational goal: Knock the Ottoman Empire out of the war before Christmas.

It was conceived in secret as a way to open up lines of communications to Russia bypassing the menace of the German High Seas Fleet, of protecting the Achilles heel of Britain: Her vast empire, hard to defend, fatal to lose from Central Powers infiltration toward India. For the Russians, with the glittering prize of Constantinople and a heredity hatred of their ancient enemy little persuasion was required. The French, initially reluctant were won over when a French Marshall was put in overall command.

The Bulk of the killing is to be done by the Russians massing 10 to 12 corps and the majorities of their headquarters in the Caucasus. Their mission in is simple: Kill the Ottoman Eastern army and steamroll their way west until the Ottoman Empire collapses. It is generally assumed sizing Yerevan, Erzurum and Trabizum will be sufficient.

The Ango-French contributions are to consist of two landings. In Anatolia at Smyrna the invasion force can credibly threaten both Ankara and Constantinople the loss of either would most certainly doom the Ottoman Empire and in the South at Beirut from where both Jerusalem and Damascus can be quickly sized.

It is hoped that this will be sufficient to accomplish the objective. If not, Anglo-French forces will link up with the Russians at Aleppo in Northern Syria – after that the Anglo-French infantry can be returned to France while Anglo-French Headquarters powers the Russians as they take out the reminder of the Middle East and drive relentlessly West to liberate the ancient legendary heart of the Roman Empire and the Birth of the Orthodox Christian Church.

Once the Ottomans surrender the follow up plan is redeploy the Anglo-French Headquarters committed to Operation Churchill to the eastern front using the Russian rail net. Since Russian rail capacity is limited it might well also make sense to sealift at least part of the Russian forces in Anatolia to France and commit them in the decisive battles for Paris. There will simply not be rail capacity to rail them to the eastern front especially as French-British headquarters might well be given priority. With the possibility of Russian Land forces in France the option of committing the Imperial Russian Air force on the western front opens up and there are even wild plans of Russian artillery used against the massed German stacks assaulting Paris. Essentially the plan is to have French HQ’s in the East supplying plentiful Russian corps in an offensive, Russian bodies helping to hold French trenches against the German offensive in the West and the whole thing facilitated by the Royal navy moving Western organisation to the East and Eastern manpower to the West.

Confidence is high in the supreme allied war council that the plan is foolproof given time. The question is: Can the French Army assisted by a few British corps buy enough time?





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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/10/2007 7:34:03 PM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 8/23/2007 10:19:30 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		The beginning of the third impulse. Marshall Ruffey might be the only Frenchman involved in the invasion plan but he is firmly in charge






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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/10/2007 7:35:50 PM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 8/23/2007 10:40:19 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
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Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: hjaco

Regarding your reasoning behind knocking out OE and its relevance to the war i will state that if Russia and France are both in the war by 1916 in a fairly decent shape CP is borscht OE or not OE

But hey, when could the two of us last agree on anything ?


Well now? There is no question the having both Russia and France in halfway decent shape in 1916 means an entente win. The thing I don’t think I can keep France alive no matter how hard I try while I know I can kick out the Ottomans before Bulgaria enters and I think I can delay the collapse of France to 1916.

- and that, I believe, is enough

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RE: The Churchill plan - 8/23/2007 11:07:03 PM   
hjaco

 

Posts: 872
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Status: offline 		Your defeatism is unique


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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/2/2007 11:05:07 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		Events in 1914 proved that as an operational plan the Churchill operation was indeed foolproof – there was simply no way the Ottoman Empire could be kept alive in the face of a sustained Entente offensive. The question is how badly the Central Powers can punish the Entente elsewhere.

The only minor snag was when an Ottoman corps managed to repulse a French attack on Jerusalem thereby delaying the Allied drive Aleppo for two 2 full impulses while the British Corps redeployed South to Assist the Helpless French Corps in Taking The City.





The view after the First strategic phase – The French needed reinforcements to be restored to full strength.

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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/11/2007 9:06:29 PM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/2/2007 11:11:23 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		On the Western front German forces overran Belgium with minimal Allied interference to position themselves for an attack into Northern France. The French did score an important success in luring the Germans to waste time and shells bombarding a thin cavalry screen all along the Franco-German border.




Yes the Germans spend most of the first turn bombing the crap out of every French border fort – to bad they were all abandoned.

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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/2/2007 11:13:03 PM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/2/2007 11:20:02 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		Overview over West front after first strategic phase. So far the brilliant French plan of running away has resulted in remarkably few casualties to both sides. Much prefer to fight behind rivers and making the Germans stand around in clear hexes where the French artillery can shoot at them.






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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/10/2007 7:42:07 PM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/2/2007 11:25:04 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		Eastern front after the first strategic impulse. The Russians employ a strategy of smoke and mirrors to try and convince the Central Powers that there are a lot more of them then there is – the Russian army is trying to knock out the Ottomans.




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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/2/2007 11:32:21 PM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/2/2007 11:33:39 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		The Austrians made a sustained attack on Serbia. Given the fact that the Entante is going all-out for the Ottomans thereby weakening both the Western and Eastern fronts I was pretty happy to se them using the HQ activations and artillery there instead of against the weakened French or Russians.

After the first turn I was in pretty high spirits. Subsequent events would show, however that the weakening of the main fronts for the Ottoman offensive would allow the Central Powers to launch simultaneous offensives against Serbia, French and Russia at the same time gaining ground in all theatres.







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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/10/2007 7:37:32 PM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/2/2007 11:40:50 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		The Rest of 1914 saw the Central Powers launch a pincer movement attack in the Eastern front with the Austrians getting as far as taking Brest-Litovsk. A Russian counterattack managed to retake the city but I was impressed that the Austrians could smash Serbia and get as far East as that at the same time.






Jan-Feb strategic phase.

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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/3/2007 12:03:47 AM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/3/2007 12:02:54 AM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		West front in Jan-Feb strategic phase. Real pressure is being applied to France.




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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/3/2007 12:08:13 AM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		In Jan-Feb strategic phase the Ottomans surrender exactly on schedule – but the lack of these Russian troops has opened real gabs in the defences on the Eastern front and it will take some time to transfer the troops back into action.




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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/3/2007 12:09:14 AM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/3/2007 12:12:30 AM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		The end of 1914 also sees the Austrian reach the Bulgarian border – but given that the Ottomans surrender I don’t really consider that much of an issue






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< Message edited by ulver -- 9/10/2007 7:39:29 PM >

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/5/2007 1:29:33 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		Vest Front Mar/Apr 1915

Germans attacking in that South all along the front – so much for my static defence behind river.






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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/5/2007 1:34:45 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		East Front Mar/Apr 1915

Warsaw - The cauldron burns. He pretty much bagged the entire Russian cavalry force – the HQ’s and most of the infantry got out on the last train. Considering it is happening while he is attacking in the West I’m impressed.





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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/5/2007 5:35:44 PM   
Joel Rauber

 

Posts: 195
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From: Brookings, SD, USA
Status: offline 		But it has to help Russian morale to see both Brits and French fighting on the eastern front.

Not to mention that they will be present to help the white vs. reds in 1918

_____________________________

Any relationship between what I say and reality is purely coincidental.

Joel Rauber

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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/5/2007 6:40:31 PM   
SteveD64

 

Posts: 570
Joined: 10/26/2006
From: Shaker Hts, Ohio, USA
Status: offline 		The timely entry of Italy looks crucial to the TE.

Also, that is one wild plan.

< Message edited by CLEVELAND -- 9/5/2007 6:45:26 PM >

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Post #: 21
RE: The Churchill plan - 9/5/2007 9:15:16 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		Strategic situation going into the summer of 1915.

Well, I’m still confident of victory but it looks like a much harder struggle then I expected at new years time. My hat of to my opponent Raynald for confounding my expectations at every turn.

His strategy of striking in every direction at once is the perfect opposite to the one I would have employed. The obvious risk to the Central Powers is that he dilutes his main thrust ending up with offensives that sees plenty of killings but fails to deliver the killing blow against either France or Russia. To win the war, not necessarily the game but the war, my assumption was always that he basically needed to drive for Paris or Petrograd and my planning was predicated on throwing everything into stopping the decisive thrust once I had dealt with the Ottomans thereby ensuring the slow strangulation of the Central Powers

However he is refusing to play to my rulebook and his unexpected strategy is turning out to have great benefits. By striking everywhere he keeps me off balance and confused, uncertain which sectors, or indeed fronts to reinforce.

I honestly don’t know where he is putting his main effort since he renewed the offensive in the West just as I expected him to transfer his HQ’s to the east for a push deep into the Russian heartland.

Just as I moved the bulk of my forces to the North of France for a possible counterattack to secure a bit of breathing space in front of Paris he launches a devastating offensive in the South completely splintering the front.

Just I was about to sail my forces home from the Middle East to France the Austrian navy sorties making such transports impossible, incidentally explaining why the Anglo-French forces involved in operation Churchill was instead railed to Eastern Poland.

There presence there giving raise to the following email comments:

“British troops reported in Beliorussia. The high command decide to stop the supply of schnaps for the east front”

- and in a later email:

“French are now reported in Beliorussia. Looks like local vodka has replaced schnaps for the ost sheer.”

I was also impressed by his stubborn refusal to allowed British landing behind his lines in France to distract him the least bit from his operational plans – personally I would likely have called my offensive to a screeching halt in order to encircle and destroy the bridgeheads lest the entire BEF lands behind my lines and moves to cut my forces in Northern France. I love to land cavalry divisions here there and everywhere to distract my opponent but he couldn’t care less.

In short, apart from the Ottoman front he has very much had me dancing to his tune, reacting to his moves, fighting his war – not mine. However it is now the summer of 1915 and the BEF is finally arriving in force and I’m fiercely determined to use it to launch a concentrated counterattack somewhere

Also I take a great deal of comfort from these hard cold facts: Time is working for me, not him. My production potential vastly outstrips his. The Italians are about to enter the war and over the horizon are the Americans.

His encirclement of virtually the entire Russian cavalry force in Poland was a brilliant feat of arms but it does not directly threaten the survival of Russia. The same is true of his drive into Southern France.

(in reply to SteveD64)
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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/6/2007 1:16:48 PM   
Raynald

 

Posts: 37
Joined: 7/14/2004
From: Paris, France.
Status: offline 		Hi all,

As I wrote to Ulved, I’m not particulary happy about my strategy so far. The truth is I regretted both my original plan and set-up very early in August (a limited Schlieffen in the west, a strong offensive in Serbia – but not a Serbia gamble - and a reasonnable defense in the east; not looking for a KO in summer 14 but gaining a good position to go east, west or south after the early battles). This was aggravated by the Entente opening (a very strong offensive against the Ottoman).
 
My plan then became to beat both the French and Russian armies (by beating I mean reducing their morale so that A become B, etc), especially by taking advantage of the weakness of the Russian position before it is too late AND  try to secure a strong economic position in France (to compensate for the inevitable fall of the OE).
 
This has been accomplished well enough, but it might not lead the CP anywhere close to a victory.
 
The worrying points are :
1/ the growing British army
2/ the possibility for the Entente to feed the Russian economy at will with BP
3/ the entry of Italy in the war in a couple of month
 
The bright points are :
1/ France looks like really weakened (both economically and military) and it should remain for a time under the threat of a powerfull offensive that could kill her.
2/ a lot of ground has been taken in the east at a reasonably low cost
3/ both CP armies are in far better shape than the Russian and French army (at least I hope so).
 
As a whole, I’m still confident… and eagerly await every day the couple of turns we play in the evening !

(in reply to ulver)
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RE: The Churchill plan - 9/6/2007 5:38:00 PM   
SteveD64

 

Posts: 570
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From: Shaker Hts, Ohio, USA
Status: offline 		Did the Entente declare war on Turkey?  If so, what effect has that had on neutrals?  Is Italy a long way off in joining?  Is Bulgaria closer to joing the CP?

(in reply to Raynald)
Post #: 24
RE: The Churchill plan - 9/6/2007 7:56:06 PM   
Raynald

 

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From: Paris, France.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: CLEVELAND

Did the Entente declare war on Turkey?  If so, what effect has that had on neutrals?  Is Italy a long way off in joining?  Is Bulgaria closer to joing the CP?


Yes the Entente declared war on Turkey, with no visible effect on anybody. And it was prior the official 1.10, so the Turks had no way to react. Worse, I noticed Turkey was under attack only after the beginning of the Russian offensive and the first British landing(the game didn't warn me and I just didn't look in this area of the map ).

Italy is very close to war.

Bulgaria has just joined the CP.

(in reply to SteveD64)
Post #: 25
RE: The Churchill plan - 9/6/2007 9:11:27 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		Yes I was rather surprised over the total lack of reaction on the part of neutrals to the Entente DoW on the Ottomans.

Although surely you got notification that the Ottomans joined the CP side? When I tested it in a hot seat game against myself I did

Also there must have been a whole string of notifications during the first turn about cities in the Middle East being lost to the British landings?

I also look forward to the few turns we manage to play every night – perhaps we should make some sort of effort to synchronise our play better?

(in reply to Raynald)
Post #: 26
RE: The Churchill plan - 9/6/2007 10:15:37 PM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline 		Although the ability to transfer productions to the Russians is nice the ability to transfer grain is much more important. Given the amount of farmland captured by the Central Powers so far with the prospect of them capturing more Russia is already now dependent on British grain shipments to avoid starvation. They have a net shortfall of 3 grains pr turn so the British grain convoys to the Black sea is crucial to preventing the revolution. Unless the German U-boats can strangle British shipping there will be no starvation in this version of events making Russia much harder to throttle into surrender.

I actually think this is a very realistic aspect of the simulation – had the Western allies been able to supply to Russians with food there is a very good chance the revolution could have been avoided.

In the end-game where everyone is getting desperately short of manpower transferring production to build Russian infantry instead of ridiculously expensive tanks may well be a significant bonus but for now the Allies are likely to make far better use of the production themselves. If they want to support the Russians they are probable better off building their own units and shipping them to the Eastern front.

Although for now the traffic is more likely to be the other way since France is far more under threat the Russia is. While still holding Paris her morale is wavering meaning she is a goner if she loses it. The loss of her industry in Lyon is a real blow at this stage and her losses of resources in Northern France will significantly reduce her production long term as France is now reduced to producing just one resource domestically pr turn. British-French shipping have no trouble making up the shortfall at this stage especially given the boost Britain gained from conquering the Middle East. Something that will undoubtedly change as her war economy swings into gear and her appetite for resources increases but right now she has to survive the short term for me to worry about the long term.

On the bright side neither the French nor the Russian Army is anywhere close to being beaten in the sense Raynald mean with losses all round actually being quite light compared to historically and an awful lot of CP shelling hitting empty or abandoned positions.

On the other hand I fear a lot of Russian shelling are hitting a German cavalry screen in East Prussia – I keep meaning to launch a probing attack with my cavalry to find out but my cavalry seem to have gone missing.

Enough talk now – where is this evenings move?


< Message edited by ulver -- 9/12/2007 3:37:56 PM >

(in reply to ulver)
Post #: 27
RE: The Churchill plan - 9/6/2007 11:33:40 PM   
Raynald

 

Posts: 37
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From: Paris, France.
Status: offline
quote:

Although surely you got notification that the Ottomans joined the CP side? When I tested it in a hot seat game against myself I did


You must be right but I don't recall it.

quote:

Also there must have been a whole string of notifications during the first turn about cities in the Middle East being lost to the British landings?


Oops, that's the effect schnaps and vodka have on my memory .

The one activation I lost meant the Ottoman couldn't escape the Russians though. I would not have make a big difference anyway. It is not even sure I would have ran !

< Message edited by Raynald -- 9/6/2007 11:34:50 PM >

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Post #: 28
RE: The Churchill plan - 9/7/2007 1:33:29 AM   
FrankHunter

 

Posts: 2111
Joined: 3/26/2004
Status: offline 		Just out of curiousity, why are you guys using 1.0 instead of 1.1 being as it doesn't affect PBEM games?



(in reply to Raynald)
Post #: 29
RE: The Churchill plan - 9/7/2007 10:07:37 AM   
ulver

 

Posts: 527
Joined: 9/9/2001
From: Danmark, Europe
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: FrankHunter

Just out of curiousity, why are you guys using 1.0 instead of 1.1 being as it doesn't affect PBEM games?



It wasn’t released when we began the game. We have both since upgraded to it.

(in reply to FrankHunter)
Post #: 30
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