wneumann
Posts: 3768
Joined: 11/1/2005
From: just beyond the outskirts of Margaritaville
Status: offline
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Thanks Feinder & ctangus.
I'm thinking my best course is attack when I'm ready to attack, and attack at the most favorable opportunity that presents itself. The most favorable opportunity may not be the best one from a VP standpoint, nor may that opportunity appear in time or reap enough VP to prevent a Jap auto-victory.
If I can avoid a Jap auto victory, I will. Not impossible, just that the odds are bit less than 50-50.
There are several things I'm considering as I'm playing (actually applies in some way to any other historical wargame).
20-20 hindsight. Any Japanese player more than semi-intelligent is going to avoid all the Japanese mistakes. In most PBEM's and face-to-face games there isn't going to be a Miracle at Midway. Maybe playing vs the Jap AI will give you a Midway of some kind, any competent Japanese human opponent will not.
Since a Japanese human opponent isn't making the historical Japanese mistakes, balance in the game will lean a little towards the Japanese player especially in the early going. Not a fault of the game system. With the advantage of hindsight a decent Japanese player with any level of historical knowledge is going to achieve somewhat better than historical results in at least one or more areas. Hindsight is a major weapon in the arsenal of any competent Japanese player that's familiar with WWII in the Pacific.
As an Allied player, you almost have to take it for granted a competent Japanese (human) opponent is not going to hand you a historical mistake (i.e. Midway) on a platter. That in itself makes the game more of a challenge for an Allied player than what the Allies faced historically.
My approach going into this PBEM was to trade space (territory) for enough time to gather my forces. Okay... so I gave up a bit too much territory, and a bit too many VP in the process. That's my hindsight for the next WitP match I'm in.
My impression of this game so far is that Pillager and I seem to be a fairly even match as opponents. With all the ground Pillager has taken, there has to be weak spots in the Japanese defense, and probably many of them. There's going to be a right time and place for me to attack, probably won't happen until into '43 (too late to avoid the auto-victory).
From here, I can see this match as a 1943 historical scenario with the following "what ifs"
1) The Japanese concentrated on a more aggressive advance eastward in the Pacific.
2) The Japanese recognizing that once the British were pushed back into India, they could be ignored as long as Hitler kept them tied down in Europe. Basically the same way the Japs viewed the Russians facing across from them in Manchuria.
3) Yamamoto himself viewed the U.S. as the most dangerous opponent to Japan, and concentrated most of the Japanese war effort against the U.S.
4) The Japanese making a move to deny Australia as a jumping off point for future Allied counterattack. Actually they did attempt this via Port Moresby. Pillager has done this in our PBEM, the only difference being he went via Darwin instead of Port Moresby. If the Japs had invaded Darwin historically, good chance they would have had the same level of success as Pillager accomplished.
5) Midway and Coral Sea never happened. The Japs didn't lose any carriers. However, neither did I.
6) Another interesting thing about this PBEM. The great "decisive" naval battle that both the U.S. (in Plan Orange) and the Japanese were anticipating in their war plans is more likely to occur in this game as projected in the pre-war plans. Oddly enough I am reading a book about Plan Orange as we speak.
My goal for the remainder of this PBEM is to reach the same level of victory in '45 as the Allies did historically, coming back from the current situation in July '42. To do this I basically have to disregard the VP situation. Is this goal possible? I think so.
Except for the Allied ground units I was going to lose anyway (in Malaya, DEI, and Philippines), my forces are virtually intact. The Prince of Wales and Repulse are still afloat, the Dutch fleet is still around, many of the auxilaries and transport ships the Japs historically sunk in the early war are afloat as well. And fully operational. Many of them now in the U.S. or Aden. Most of the AP's that were in Australia have moved to either Aden or the U.S. where they can be effectively used for amphibious ops.
All but one of the Indian infantry brigades "lost" at Singapore are in various stages of rebuilding in India. Both the Australian Brigades initially in Malaya are rebuilding in Australia. A number of U.S. ground units from the Philippines are around as well - 4th Marines, 31 RCT now on the front lines in Australia; two USAAF Base Forces also evacuated to Australia; one U.S. engineer unit, a Naval Base Force unit, and a Philippine infantry rgt rebuilding in the U.S. A Marine CD Unit (7th) rebuilding from a cadre in the U.S. - this LCU was "destroyed" at Pago Pago. About 15-20 Dutch air and naval base units still around. Small Australian units pulled out of Rabaul and New Guinea before the hammer fell. Pillager will see them all again.
I'm collecting my weapons and collecting more of them. Now it's a matter of the best time and place to strike.
I have been shipping out as many U.S. LCU's as possible as quickly as possible - to the point Hawaii is sinking under the weight of them. Six divisions already there, a seventh one soon joining them. The three U.S. west coast divisions (7th, 40th, 41st) are a "wild card" - they can either go join the others in Hawaii or head for India. Once I have a stash of 8-9,000 PP on hand, those divisions can end up somewhere very suddenly. I don't need to spend very many PP right now, makes this kind of stash quite attainable.
Many U.S. air units are still in the states. Plan to leave most of them there until I know exactly which ones I want and where I want them. Most likely bring them forward in the last days before the Allied offensive begins.
Bases... Building up the Line Islands as a jumping off point. Also been creeping forward in the Aleutians (haven't mentioned this before now). The northern strategy hasn't been excluded.
I have things to play with here. Jap auto-victory or not.
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