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Player Aging Model - 1/14/2008 3:53:56 AM   
dzanr


Posts: 39
Joined: 12/31/2007
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I've been wondering about the game's approach to aging players and their skill level.

When Steve Blass was 30 years old and on the top of his game, he had only 1 half season left in MLB. When Carlton Fisk was 30 years old, he still had 15+ seasons of a HOF carrer left in MLB.

When Blass and Fisk reach age 30 in a PS fictional league, does PureSim "look into the future" and see how their real life careers went in two totally oposite directions, and then age them accordingly as far as their skill levels go? That is, when they reach age 30 will Blass's skill level sink faster than a led zeppelin, while Fisk's skill levels remain strong for several more seasons?

Thanks.

DZ
Post #: 1
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/15/2008 6:15:03 AM   
dzanr


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Joined: 12/31/2007
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Doesn't anyone out there have any insight into this issue?

I would think that this issue would be pretty important and central to playing the game over multiple seasons. Surely some of you who have played PS for awhile must have some sense of this one way or the other.

DZ

(in reply to dzanr)
Post #: 2
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/15/2008 7:24:23 AM   
slider15


Posts: 69
Joined: 10/21/2006
From: Middletown, NY
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Well first off I'm not positive about this but here is my take on this. Every year when using real players I think(key word there) that the Lahman database is checked. One due to the need for new players appearing but I also believe that it sets all player ratings close to statistical results from that year. Anyone feel free to correct me. So I would say yes Fisk would have a much longer career as far as his ratings staying up there then say some other players who had a couple of good years then flared out. I am not however positive on this. So anyone elses thoughts would be welcome. Hope I helped or at least gave you something to experiment with.

_____________________________

You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people all of the time.

(in reply to dzanr)
Post #: 3
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/15/2008 8:03:50 AM   
motnahp

 

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Here's my two cents' worth. I did an AL-only assn using real players on their real teams, starting in 1969. Keep in mind that this was with an earlier version of PS, so some things may have changed.

During the above-mentioned assn, I actually ended up with four Reggie Jacksons. The original Reggie (1969) had a good PS career, but PS retired him prematurely and he went into the Hall of Fame. When Reggie was retired, I imported a later version of him (possibly 1984) into a "fake" assn. I then copied down all of the ratings of the '84 version, created a fictional player in the actual assn, then renamed him Reggie Jackson'84. I, of course, then changed the ratings to match what was imported into the fake assn.

Naturally, PS would retire him again and again, so I would repeat the process each time. This allowed me to keep a version of Reggie in the assn until his actual retirement after the 1987 season.

With a recent update to PS, some of these steps are no longer needed. As long as you check the box allowing you to import duplicate players into an assn, you can import them back in whenever PS retires them early. The only drawback to this is that the players will each have separate lines in your almanac. The benefit, of course, is that you get to keep your teams historically accurate.

In your particular case, PS will most likely not "know" that Fisk played into his mid 40's. I would (based on previous experience) expect PS to retire him around the age of 40. It could be sooner, or a little later. I had one guy last until he was 47, but that was a rarity.

One sore spot among many PS users is how the program has treated Nolan Ryan. If importing Ryan as a young pitcher (age 19 or 20), you can expect him to be just an average guy as he matures. If you import him in his mid-20's, you can expect a dominant power pitcher, but I doubt he will pitch effectively into his mid 40's like real-life Ryan.

One example I like to refer to is J.R. Richard of the Astros. He suffered a stroke in 1980 (at age 30, I believe). He was at the top of his game at the time, but never pitched again after the stroke. If you import him in his mid 20's, you will most likely end up with a J.R. that stays effective well past the age of 30. I've personally seen this happen with one of "my" Richards.

Another one that comes to mind is Doc Gooden. If you import Doc as a 19-year-old, you can expect him to be one of your best pitchers in the assn for almost 20 years. PS doesn't "know" that he ruined his career with drugs. The Gooden I used ended up retiring at age 41 or 42 and went immediately into the Hall of Fame with over 300 wins!

The program seems to take a "snapshot" of a player, using the import year and a year or two in each direction. I seem to remember Shaun addressing (and tweaking) this in the past. PS uses this "snapshot" to decide your player's ratings and longevity. There are many variables with injuries that could also affect how long a players lasts. I recall importing catcher Victor Martinez in his early 20's. During his first season, he suffered a career-ending injury. I just let it ride.

I've long been an advocate of an option whereby the AI would choose its' lineups and rosters based on the ACTUAL number of innings pitched or at-bats in a given season, with an increased risk of injury if actual innings or at-bats are exceeded. I mention this on the boards about every 2-3 weeks, hoping others who are like-minded will get on board. So far, response to this idea has been lukewarm, at best. As is, though, the program has many options where we can work around things like your Fisk issue.

Have fun with it, and hope I've been at least a little helpful.

(in reply to dzanr)
Post #: 4
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/15/2008 2:18:34 PM   
puresimmer

 

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Joined: 7/24/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: dzanr

I've been wondering about the game's approach to aging players and their skill level.

When Steve Blass was 30 years old and on the top of his game, he had only 1 half season left in MLB. When Carlton Fisk was 30 years old, he still had 15+ seasons of a HOF carrer left in MLB.

When Blass and Fisk reach age 30 in a PS fictional league, does PureSim "look into the future" and see how their real life careers went in two totally oposite directions, and then age them accordingly as far as their skill levels go? That is, when they reach age 30 will Blass's skill level sink faster than a led zeppelin, while Fisk's skill levels remain strong for several more seasons?

Thanks.

DZ




Yes that is exactly how it works, when using real players, their career is very important to the aging model. However, in a recent update I smoothed out the effect a bit so now in PureSim there is a chance a guy could hang a round a good bit longer than in real life. Of course it gets complicated and has to flip to using a "hybrid" aging model algorithm when using real players but playing into the future where we have no real life data.

I am super happy with the aging model.

If you want to get a feel for it, start a season on 1970 or something and just let it run on unattended auto play for a night while you sleep. That is a nice way to really dive in and look at player career arcs etc.

Shaun

_____________________________

Developer, PureSim Baseball

(in reply to dzanr)
Post #: 5
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/22/2008 8:09:46 PM   
dzanr


Posts: 39
Joined: 12/31/2007
Status: offline
Related follow-up question:

I'm drafting real-life players from the 1975 season.  There is a player named Gary Carter whose primary position is CF/RF.   A mistake?  Some other Gary Carter you've forgotten?  Nope - that Gary Carter.   

Sure enough.  After a little research I found that Carter was primary an outfielder during his first few seasons.  It wasn't until 1977 that he became a full-time catcher.  By 1979 he was a gold glove catcher, which he was also awarded in 1980, 1981 and 1982.

For 1975, PS2007 has him defensively rated very well as an outfielder and only fair as a catcher.  I want to draft him and sign him to a 5-year contract.  But I only want to do this if I will be able to use him as my #1 catcher within the next few seasons.  Yet I only want to do that if his defensive skills and ratings as a catcher improve.

Generally speaking, assuming he doesn't get injured, will the game "recognize" that in real life Carter developed into a fine defensive catcher over the early part of his career?  And will the game tend to reflect that excellence in his PS catcher defensive ratings?

DZ     

(in reply to puresimmer)
Post #: 6
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/22/2008 9:12:40 PM   
slider15


Posts: 69
Joined: 10/21/2006
From: Middletown, NY
Status: offline
I think you will have to manually change his position when you want him to be a catcher. From what I've heard after a player enters a league its as his position at that time. After that I think it would leave him as an OF unless you started a league after he was already a catcher.

_____________________________

You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people all of the time.

(in reply to dzanr)
Post #: 7
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/23/2008 3:45:01 PM   
dzanr


Posts: 39
Joined: 12/31/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: slider15

I think you will have to manually change his position ...



Can anyone else confirm that this is true?

If it is so, how would I go about doing this? Do I simply edit his biographical information to make "Pos 1" a "C"? Is it possible to manually improve a player's defensive skills at a specific position?

It seems to me that the game would/should have a way for handling defensive rating adjustments for a guy like, say. Robin Yount who came up as a SS and played there exclusively for 10 years, then switched to outfield and played there exclusively for 9 years.

DZ

(in reply to slider15)
Post #: 8
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/24/2008 1:40:51 PM   
motnahp

 

Posts: 1837
Joined: 8/22/2005
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Two ways to do this.

(1) Go to the player card and click on Edit Player. You can change anything you want.

(2) Import the 1977 version of Carter, then go into the Edit Player and change anything you want (you may just want to change his age and potential).

If you choose (2), make sure you check the box allowing for duplicate players. If you import the '77 version of Carter, you'll need to retire your current one. I guess another option would be to keep a second version of Carter in your minor leagues until he's needed. I've never done it that way, though.

Another thing that I know worked in past versions: Simply put your OF Carter behind the plate occasionally. Once he's had enough experience, he will "learn" the new position. After enough experience, he will then show as RF/C on your roster screen.

I've never actually gone this route. Someone who has needs to chime in here and verify that this still is a feature of PS.

< Message edited by motnahp -- 1/24/2008 1:45:02 PM >

(in reply to dzanr)
Post #: 9
RE: Player Aging Model - 1/24/2008 4:03:04 PM   
Frozen Stiffer


Posts: 1059
Joined: 8/19/2005
From: California, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: motnahp

Another thing that I know worked in past versions: Simply put your OF Carter behind the plate occasionally. Once he's had enough experience, he will "learn" the new position. After enough experience, he will then show as RF/C on your roster screen.



I'm not commenting on the overall problem, as I have very little experience playing with historical associations, but I can testify that PS still allows players to "learn" new positions. Note however, that I seriuosly doubt that if Carter "becomes" a catcher in this way he will be anywhere near as good as he was IN REAL LIFE as a catcher.

I've never personally been involved in recreating history in Puresim, but I've read enough boards and messages that I can at least add in my 2 cents. What I have observed to work the best is option 2, but with the removal of the "old" Carter. This WILL impact the amount of data it will list in the career stats for the player, since when you bring him in, the "new" version will have no record of any games you already played him in the "old" version. Be warned. However, you're faced with a big question at this point; what's more important, a complete historical career or a player performing AS you expect him to WHEN you expect him to?

If you make him learn catcher, you will have a longer, filled career history.

If you re-import him as a catcher and replace the "old" him, then you won't have that 'history' but you will have the type of catcher you're expecting to see out of Carter.

_____________________________

"It ain't braggin' if you can do it."

-Hall of Fame pitcher Jerome 'Dizzy' Dean

(in reply to motnahp)
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