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RE: Decision Time - 12/16/2007 5:18:31 AM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
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quote:

Options as I see them:
1. Aleutians
2. New Zealand
3. NW Aussieland
4. Burma/India
5. Palmyra/Christmas


1. Aleutians - He already has a strong presences there, so If he goes here he will be placing his forces very close to the main USA bases. I don't place this one high on the list as you will eventually overwhelm him here. There is also no economic benefit (no Oli/Resources).

2. New Zealand - He has already cut off your main LOC with USA by taking French Polynesia. This serves no logical purpose from his current position.

3. NW Ausssieland - A possibility, but what does he gain unless he tries to take all of Australia??

4. Burma/India - My number one choice. I've taken over a PBEM game at 5/31/42 with Big B's against Damian (N01487477). He had done a small hook and taken Akyab, Cox Bazaar and Chittagong before I took over. His previous opponent had forward depolyed too deeply into Burma, but I'm trying to extract them back as he has landed on Ceylon and the very SW corner of India. I thought it was too late to do this, but I may be wrong. He also gains more from an economic point of view.

5. Palmyra/Christmas - This would isolate Hawaii more, but he could probably do this without the whole weight of his Luzon forces.

So my order would be: Burma/India, Australia, Aleutians, New Zealand, and then Palmrya/Christmas last. John likes to think big.

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 91
RE: Decision Time - 12/16/2007 5:51:52 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		NY, you're right, John does like to think big.  I think he's given to "trophy hunting."  I don't believe he will evaluate his options like many would.  That is, I think he's drawn to doing something gaudy even if it doesn't add resources or maximize his strategic position. 

So, while NZ doesn't offer much strategically or economically, it is an enticing trophy he can add to his shelf.  That and the fact that he missed his chance at it in his game with CapMandrake makes me think it is the most likely target.

The target that most worries me is Australia, but I can't figure out John's reference to "NW" Aussieland.  He already owns it - from Broome to Darwin to Katherine.  But in his game with CapMandrake he seems to frequently get his directions Down Under confused, referring to Perth as NE Australia and the like.  I think he must have one of those funky upside down perspective world maps.  So when he says NW Australia I think he means either Perth or the Cairns/Townsville regions.

John has never shown much interest in Burma, India, and China judging by the AARs for his games.  Doesn't mean he can't develop an interest now, just that he there's something in him that lusts after using the Imperial Navy on a grand scale.  Too, sending his units that way takes away from his ability to protect the vast area he has conquered in Cen and SoPac.  I'm not ignoring this threat, and I have many units dispersed behind the lines, so I'm prepared should he move on India.

If he comes for Palmyra, more power to him. This is the one exposed place I've been able to adequately prepare.  He can take it, but it would require an all-out commitment and exact a high toll.

I rate the likelihood of John's targets:  NZ, Australia, Calcutta/Diamond Harbor, Anchorage, Ceylon, Bombay, Karachi, Palmyra.

Many of these targets will require lengthy campaigns, and we're on the eve of June '42.  If John is worried about the time factor, he may prefer something fairly quick - in that event NZ, Anchorage, and Palmyra may be his best choices.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 92
Troop Movements - 12/18/2007 7:57:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/27/42 to 6/6/42

It has been a fairly quiet period as both sides prepare and launch important operations.

SoPac:  John sends an email with the 6/5/42 turn that "Over 140 sets of anchors rise from the depths of the harbor as the Invasion Force leaves for its well known destination."  This surely means Pago Pago, which has been reduced to rubble and won't be able to put up much of a fight this time.  But as a speed bump, Pago Pago gets top marks.  John's first invasion attempt ended way back about February, and since then he's devoted alot of aircraft and some shipping to blasting the garrison.  That's four months of attention that otherwise might have been given to Palmyra, NZ, or other important Allied bases.

NoPac:  A large Allied convoy escorted by three CV TFs left San Francisco on the 5th making for Anchorage.  These will be joined by several TFs out of Seattle.  Included are supplies, more than 100K fuel, minelayers, MLE, a field artillery regiment, and a base force.  I hope that I can run these TFs in without opposition and keep my CVs well back, but they are present in case John sorties Jap combat ships or CVs.  These reinforcements and supplies should really bolster Alaska's defense.  John has alot of subs working the area.  If subs are any indication of future intentions, then this is where he's coming.  ASW out of Seattle sank I-165 on the 6th.  In the game to date, the Japs have lost 12 subs, the Allies one.  The disparity is primarily because John has not paid much attention to ASW, at least to this point.

CenPac:  With John likely focused on Pago Pago for perhaps another week, I may have only this last window to move troops to Palmyra.  Most of the balance of 7th Division, a base force, and an AA unit, are on the way.  Christmas Island has a Marine CD unit, EAB, and Seabee.  Forts are two and I'm beginning work on the airfield.  A small base force is loading in San Fran.  John caught wind of my ships unloading at French Frigate Shoals - unfortunately, I missed the sighting reports during combat replay, so didn't notice.  He sent a CL/DD force that arrived on the 3rd and sank 4 AK.

NZ/Australia:  Quiet in the east half.  On the west, no sign of the Jap ships recently seen NW of Perth.  The standoff at Daly Waters continues.  The Japs bomb and bombard regularly, but without dramatic affect.  Forts have increased to 3 and the defense AV remains about 920.

India/Burma:  Remain quiet.

China:  Chinese troops 60 miles W of Canton began attacking the Japanese defenders on the 2nd.  The first came off at 1:1 and cost the Japs 594/29/1 to 2333/38.  Then the Chinese awaited the arrival of reinforcements from Wuchan.  The next attack on the 6th at 4:1 cost the Japs 1049/62/1 to 2623/17.  The Japs retreated into Canton.  I seriously doubt I have a chance to take Canton, but I'll probe a bit and see what's up.  The Chinese AV in Changsha is 9000.  I am toying with the idea of making a move on Nanchang, but haven't decided yet.

Philippines:  A 1:1 shock attack at Manila on the 28th costs the Japs 8292/97/7 to 1527/26/19.  Another try on the 2nd costs the Japs 10,592/71/5 to 2293/30/10.  The defense will yield very soon, but holding into June has been a big help.  By the time Manila falls and the Jap units there could load and move to a distant point like India, Alaska, or New Zealand, it should be at least mid- or late July.  Subs with moderate damage were assigned to transport parts of a base force and HQ unit to Australia.  It won't be much, but there will be seeds to grow replacements.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 93
Manila Falls - 12/19/2007 7:24:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/7/42 to 6/10/42
 
Philippines:  The Allied garrison 77,000 strong finally surrenders on the 10th, after the Japanese launch an attack at 2:1.  That means John has alot of troops he can deploy elsewhere, but it should take him some time.  A tip of the hat to the defenders for keeping the Japs occupied for nearly seven months.

Alaska:  BBs Yamata and Haruna are the flagships of a TF that bombarded Kodiak Island on the 9th, destroying some ten aircraft on the ground.  This TF was sighted two days out, so most of the Allied ships at Anchorage weighted anchor and fled, and most of the heavy bombers at Kodiak moved to Anchorage.  Meanwhile, the large Allied convoy making for Anchorage from San Fran is about half-way there, and what I'm trying to figure out is whether Yamato is the hammer or the bait.  Is John hoping to lure in the US CVs to spring a trap with carriers of his own, or does he think the US CVs are either far away or wouldn't be committed?  I honestly don't know, but we may find out in four or five days.

CenPac:  Quiet here as the Allies continue to beef up Palmyra.

SoPac:  No sign of the Jap invasion TF at Pago Pago yet.  Scattered Allied transports continue to act like blockade runners moving from Panama City to Wellington, NZ.  Two AKs carrying an FA regiment are nearing NZ.  Two APs carrying Americal detachments have split, one moving south of Papaete, the other north.  A Glen spotted the southern one on the 6th, but so far no Jap CVs have shown up.

Australia:  John hasn't reinforced his troops at Daly Waters yet.  I am worried about him making an end run - especially any large-scale invasion of southern Australia (Whyalla would be a crisis).

India/Burma:  Remains quiet, but John is gathering units at Magwe.  Is he planning to take the slow route across the river to get behind Mandalay?

China:  Quiet.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 94
Pago Pago Falls - 12/20/2007 5:10:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/11/42 and 6/12/42
 
SoPac:  The Japs invaded Pago Pago on the 11th and the "bastion" capitulated that day.  The defenders were out of supplies and disrupted by months of incessant bombing. 

CenPac:  The Allies continue to work on defenses, especially at Palmyra, Johnston, Hilo, and Pearl.  I expect Palmyra and Christmas to get a visit soon - at least raiders of some sort.  I don't have a feel yet for whether John wants Palmrya enough to mount an invasion strong enough to take it.  SigInt hasn't ever mentioned Jap units prepping for Palmyra.

NoPac:  AK Si Kiang, on of three picket AKs stationed in a line south of Alaska toward Hawaii served its purpose.  A Jap CV TF or two happened across it and sank it - with about 20 Vals and about 20 Kates sortying.  That isn't a strong enough force to take on 3 US CVs.  Is this all John has?  Has he split his CVs risking defeat in detail?  Or is this just the vanguard of a much more powerful force?  These TFs are SW of the US CVs and other TFs making for Anchorage.  I'm not sure what to do - I would love to take on a relatively weak Jap CV TF, but I sure don't want to come out on the short end of an ambush.  Hmm.  A map will be posted shortly.

Australia:  Situation unchanged - John has 75k troops at Daly Waters, the Allies have 50k.  If he reinforces, I'll retreat to the next speed bump (Tennant Creek, which has another brigade and forts 2).  I'm worried that John's Daly Waters force is meant to attract Aussie attention and troops while he invades the southern or northeastern coast.

Burma:  Increase in numbers of Jap units noted and one division has moved to within 60 miles of Lashio.  A situation map will be posted shortly.  I think John will try a two-fold attack here - one meant to threaten or hit Mandalay, the second an invasion of Cox's Bazaar or Chittagong.  But I'm thankful we're nearing mid-June. I don't think India as a whole is at risk any longer.

China:  Quiet.  John seems to be reinforcing Nanchang and Canton (or at least shifting troops around internally to meet what he may perceive to be threats).

Score:  Score screen will be posted shortly.  I'm getting clobbered, but sure want to mount a comeback.  An important engagement may be near in the Gulf of Alaska.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 95
Jap Raiders South of Alaska - 12/20/2007 5:17:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		June 12, 1942: Jap raiders stumble across AK Si Kiang, sinking the Allied "picket" ship, but not before she telegraphed an alert.




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Post #: 96
Situation in Burma - 12/20/2007 5:21:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's the situation in Burma on June 12, 1942.




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Post #: 97
June 12, 1942 Score - 12/20/2007 5:25:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Not pretty, but "I have not yet begun to fight."




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Post #: 98
Did Somebody Schedule a Dance - 12/20/2007 11:02:20 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/13/42 and 6/14/42
 
Gulf of Alaska:  John is clearly anxious for a fight, which means I'm eager to avoid one.  Recent emails:  (1) As John prepares to run the June 13 turn - "Running turn with High Expectation..."; (2) My reply (trying to remain coy like I don't have CVs in harm's way) - "I dunno, I wasn't expecting anything.  You must be on the trail hoping to close with my ships;" (3) His comment when he sends the turn:  "Not sure what I am REALLY expecting...but this turn was not it!"  I pulled my CVs to the north and he is in pursuit (I think).  In addition to the CV convoy that is SW of my CVs (but, like them, moving north), he also has a stout convoy steaming east from the vicinity of Cold Bay.  Does it too contain CVs?  Has he slipped the KB way up here?  The fact that he is chasing ME, instead of acting like I surprised HIM, leads me to believe he is seeking a clash with my CVs.  I only want to fight on my terms, so I'm trying to skedaddle, moving further east toward the inlet between Sitka and Prince Rupert.  P38s from Sitka are providing LRCAP and Prince Rupert will be able to chip in with some Kitthyhawks tomorrow or the following day.  My little expedition to reinforce Alaska seems to have blundered into a hornet's nest.  Map to follow.
Elsewhere:  The only other major event over this two day period was a dogfight over Allied troops 60 miles outside Canton, China.  Allied fighters flying LRCAP surprised several Jap raids, shooting down 9 Zeros, 4 Nates, 10 Oscars, 4 Marys, 3 Sonias, and 3 Lilys against the loss of 5 P40Es.  On the 14th, Japs took the last Allied outpost in Sumatra. 

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Post #: 99
Did Somebody Schedule a Dance? - 12/20/2007 11:03:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The dance in the Gulf of Alaska on June 14, 1942.




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Post #: 100
Somebody Invited the KB.... - 12/21/2007 12:28:44 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/15/42

Gulf of Alaska:  It appears that the KB is in the Gulf of Alaska and on the trail of the Allied CVs.  See map attached for sitatuion as of 6/15/42.  I am fleeing for my life.  The US TFs including CVs are making for Prince Rupert, which will offer LR CAP from 2 Kittyhawk squadrons and a P38 squadron.  LBA from Kodiak and Anchorage hit a surface combat TF at Kodiak, damaging 3 DDs and sinking a 4th.  I held out some hope that this sort of thing might discourage John from sailing too close to LBA at Sitka, Prince Rupert, and points south, but that doesn't appear to be the case.  My email to him:  "Now whatcha gonna do?"  His response as he begins the next turn:  "Give you one heck of an opportunity:  CHARGE!"  I do not have a good feeling about this.  As far behind as I am right now, I'm gonna feel awfully low if I lose the rest of my CVs.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 101
Somebody Invited the KB.... - 12/21/2007 12:29:32 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Go away, KB, go away.




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Post #: 102
Dance of the Vampires - 12/21/2007 3:08:56 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/16/42

Gulf of Alaska:  Indeed the KB charged and closed to within striking distance of the fleeing Allied convoy.  The Allied ships withstood three waves of attacks, suffered some losses, but inflicted terrible damage to Japanese aircraft.  Despite the Allied losses, it would have been a glorious victory but for two things that always plague me in these games - the US CVs didn't launch bombers, and two of my CVs reacted, separating from the main convoy.  So here's what happened:

US CVs and Convoys:  Fleeing east, the ships end the turn 120 miles west of Prince Rupert, allowing a handful of Kittyhawks and P38s to augument the CAP provided by three squadrons of F4Fs.

KB:  The KB closes to a point 300 miles west of the US ships and launches three strikes.

Strike 1:  21 Kates, 21 Vals, and 10 Zeros face 68 F4Fs, 6 Khawks, and 4 P38s.  The Japs lose 9 Z, 20 V, and 20 K while the Allies lose 1 F4F, 1 K, and 2 P38.  No ships are damaged.

Strike 2:  Here comes the overwhelming surge that I figure will finish off my CVs, but I'm wrong (hurray):  141 K, 91 V, and 56 Z face 67 F4F, 5 K, and 4 P38.  The Japs see 40 Z, 30 V, and 52 K go down in flames.  The Allies lose 3 F4Fs, 16 K, and 3 P38.  The vampires that get through put 1 TT into Hornet, doing light damage, and 4 TT into BB Idaho, sending the latter to the bottom.  Idaho deserves a ship version of the Medal of Honor.

Strike 3:  33 K, 22 V, and 4 Z come in against 4 K, 64 F4F, and 4 P38.  The Japs lose 2 Z, 4 V, and 9 K and the survivors flee the scene.  No Allied craft are lost.

Total Aircraft Losses for the Day:  Japs 209, Allies 34.

Tomorrow:  Recon reports the Jap TFs are still heading east.  Will John continue the attack despite the devastating losses taken by the KB?  I think I would welcome it had my two undamaged CVs not "reacted" and moved a hex west (despite orders not to react and orders to follow a merchant convoy).  This poses a real problem, because now my CVs are separated and who knows what they'll do.  Man, I wish CVs would obey orders.  Anyhow, I've sent non-CV convoys south toward Port Alice and issued orders for the two CV TFs to follow suit.  Who knows whether they will comply.  So, tomorrow, John may retreat, he may advance and get bloodied again if my ships hang together, or he may clobber me in detail if my CVs remain dispersed.  I have no idea which of the three will occur.

Impact:  IF - and this is a big if at this point - the US CVs make it back to Seattle, then this has been a great victory.  While I haven't touched a Jap ship, and despite the loss of a BB, the KB will have been markedly weakened by the loss of pilots and aircraft.

Cen- and SoPac:  With the KB to the north, the Allies continue to push supplies and troops to distant points.  An AK carrying half a field artillery regiment arrived in NZ with another about a week behind.  An AP carrying another Americal detachment is just a couple of days from Wellington.  A second such AP was torpedoed twice south of Papaete - it has a chance of making it home.  A third such AP sailed north of Papaete and between Raratonga and Tongatapu and may make it to NZ.

Australia: Status quo, but I'm a bit less apprehensive about a massive invasion with the KB in Alaska.  But John can mount an invasion without a KB since I have nothing with which to oppose him.

India/Burma:  Quiet.

China:  Quiet.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/21/2007 6:37:21 PM >

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Post #: 103
RE: Dance of the Vampires - 12/21/2007 3:22:11 AM   
Terminus


Posts: 41459
Joined: 4/23/2005
From: Denmark
Status: offline 		Damn, the Great Alaskan Turkey Shoot!

_____________________________

We are all dreams of the Giant Space Butterfly.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 104
RE: Dance of the Vampires - 12/21/2007 6:40:20 PM   
NormS3


Posts: 521
Joined: 12/10/2007
From: Wild and Wonderful WV, just don't drink the water
Status: offline 		Wow, don't think I've seen KB strikes fair this badly until 43 or later. Good Luck! Great AAR by the way.

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Post #: 105
RE: Dance of the Vampires - 12/21/2007 6:56:31 PM   
Cathartes

 

Posts: 2155
Joined: 1/5/2001
Status: offline 		Amazing results!  It seems to me you've achieved a major victory.  You have effectively neutered KB, killing off a big chunk of his most experienced pilots, which he will be unable to fully replace for some time.  You have made a good trade for your BB.  If I was playing the Japanese I would be demoralized.  Thanks for the AAR.


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Post #: 106
The Dance Ends - 12/21/2007 7:01:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/17/42
 
NoPac:  The KB steamed west into the heart of the Gulf of Alaska, so the the Allies are breathing a sigh of relief and rejoicing in the escape of the US CVs and the destruction of Japanese aircraft.  John believes Hornet was hit pretty  hard ("For ALL THOSE CASAULTIES what do I get?  An old BB and heavy damage to ONE CV!" he wrote in an email) and he sent three subs to Prince Rupert and vicinity to try and pick her off.  But Hornet only has 10 SYS damage and less flooding and fires from the torpedo she took.  All my TFs were heading SE toward Seattle; Hornet's TF separated from the others and moved more quickly, but it didn't matter since the Japanese withdrew.  Now all Allied ships in the area will rendezvous 60 miles NW of Port Alice (where I've moved the P38 squadron to provide LRCAP).  From there, I'll decide whether to send some or all of the ships to Anchorage, or pull back to Seattle or even San Fran until all the dust has settled.

Impact of the Battle:  With the KB losing more than 200 aircraft and pilots, it will be weakened considerably.  John will probably send some of his big CVs home to refit, and possibly a part somewhere in the Pacific to keep me honest.  CV Wasp will arrive at Panama City in two weeks.  She will join the other three at either San Fran or Seattle.  Al US CV air squadrons are in great shape.  If John thinks Hornet is out of commission, for at least awhile I'll have a stronger CV force than he thinks.  I think the damage to the KB reduces the likelihood that John will risk large convoys against large numbers of LBA, so I think this reduces the risk that he will invade Kodiak, Anchorage, or Hawaii.  I therefore think that NZ, India, Australia, and Palmyra/Christmas are the remaining likely targets, in that order.

NZ:  The AP damaged by two TTs sank, taking with it an Americal detachment.  Two other such APs will arrive at Wellington in a few days. Of the seven APs carrying Americal, six will have made it to NZ.   The balance of an artillery regiment will land soon, and 2nd Marine Raiders are on the way (split into two widely separated AKs that are just leaving the Panama City channel).  In addition to it's home units, NZ will have two US divisions, a RCT, an artillery regiment, and hopefully 2nd Marine Raiders.  However, the islands have no extra base forces and no air power to speak of.  Auckland is a level 8 port.  I'd like to send a minelayer there, although those ships are precious and few.

India:  ML Greuden Leew was working out of Diamond Harbor until Betties from Rangoon sank her.  That was my fault, because I didn't have any CAP.  Two units are now at Cox's Bazaar.  Chittagong, Calcutta, Diamond Harbor, and Madras have pretty good garrisons.  Akyab, Mandalay, and Lashio are the forward lines of defense.  It does not look like the Japanese units at Magwe are strong enough to pose a threat to Mandalay the round-about, cross-country way.  India's defenses aren't full-proof, but John would have to commit everything and it feels to me like most of his power is in the eastern Pacific.  Even if he ships all the units from Philippines, it will take awhile for them to arrive.

Australia:  SigInt reveals two Jap parachute regiments in Australia, one at Darwin (1st) and one to the south (Broome or Wyndham, I think).  Is he planning an aerial assault behind the front lines?  Both Tennant Creek and Alice Springs have garrisions of about 180 AV with forts at least 2.  Two para regiments couldn't overcome such a defense, could it?  Alice Springs will soon be reinforced by an Aussie tank unit.  To me, Australia seems awfully vulnerable, with the exception of Sydney, but does John want to commit to a major offensive here at this date?

Palmyra/Christmas:  Palmrya looks good with AV 700+, 3000 mines, and forts about 6 or 7 now.  Christmas is still weak (a Marine CD unit and 3 forts), but at least the Japanese can't take it on a shoe string, and why would they even bother unless they really want Palmyra, and why would they want to get tied up in Palmyra.  Putting it that way makes me realize that while John may raid this area (with CVs or strong bombardment groups), I doubt he will try an invasion at this point).

(in reply to Terminus)
Post #: 107
Rumblings - 12/24/2007 3:27:10 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/18/42 to 6/26/42

A lull in the action has followed the Battle of the Gulf of Alaska, but there are rumblings....

NoPac:  It seems that the KB withdrew to the mid- or western Aleutians.  Received several emails from John in which he emphasizes that the KB lost only about 170 pilots rather than the 200+ that he first feared; whatever, it was a great Allied victory.  The US CVs docked at Seattle.  Hornet, which took a TT in the battle, is down to SYS 8.  A small TF with MLE is making its way slowly up the coast toward Anchorage - currently docked at Sitka, which has a P38 squadron providing CAP.  A DM/ML convoys is lagging behind, at Prince Rupert, to make sure that the coast clears.  This convoy is to precious to lose.  John sent a stout bombardment TF with Yamato to Kodiak a few days ago.  I would love to get that port mined.

CenPac:  No signs of action here.  A base force arrived at Christmas Island, which now has a PBY squadron.

SoPac:  Quiet here, except for the isolated, blockade-running ships trying to make NZ or to return from there to Panama City.  The field artillery regiment landed at Gisborne; the last Americal detachment lands at Wellington tomorrow.  The two widely separated AKs carrying 2nd Marine Raiders are well past Papaete now and will make NZ in a week barring problems.

Australia:  The Allies pulled out of Daly Waters - both because the units there were getting pounded mericlessly by Japanese bombers, and because reinforcements were sighted nearing the city.  Next stop is Tennant Creek.  Received SigInt that one of the two parachute regiments is on an AP heading for Rangoon.  Just received SigInt that a tank regiment is on an AP heading for Darwin.  Last night, received an Ultra intercept suggesting that John has his eyes on Australia, but this might have been disinformation.  I'll post more about this later.  Since Australia has been isolated, there's really nothing I can do but hope the defenses can hold, or at least delay.

India:  Quiet.  Since he is moving a parachute reg't to Rangoon, John seems to be planning an offensive here.  Yesterday, he reconned as far as Rangpur.  I'm doing my best to make sure that I have adequate reserves.  Chindit brigades begin arriving in Karachi soon.

China:  Quiet.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/29/2007 9:49:31 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 108
RE: Rumblings - 12/24/2007 3:37:20 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I've been trying to determine whether John will head for NZ, India, Australia, or Palmyra, and received this Ultra intercept last night...

The only question - Is it real, or is it disinformation?

[Edit - the image is small, but it's a screenshot from last night concerning John's post to his AAR: "Re: End of Aussieland."]




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/24/2007 3:52:12 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 109
RE: Rumblings - 12/24/2007 4:05:43 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		FACT:
John likes to play head games. We both know that.
John likes to think BIG.
John "really" hates to be a defensive player, prefers offense.

Did I miss anything??

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 110
Rumblings, Rumblings - 12/28/2007 10:13:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/27/42 to 7/1/42
 
NoPac:  No further sign of the KB, but John continues to send bombardment groups to hit Kodiak Island.  On the 1st, a powerful TF including BBs Yamato, Nagato, Ise, and Fuso hit the island.  Meanwhile, two important Allied TFs continue to move toward the theater from Seattle.  The first includes an MLE.  The second an ML and several DMs.  They have been stationed at Sitka for a few days, waiting for Yamato and friends to clear the area.  Tonight the MLE TF makes the lunge for Anchorage.  The ML/DM TF will try to mine Kodiak before moving to Anchorage.  There is danger in these moves - alot of Jap subs in the area, plus the possibility of the KB showing up, but it will be a big plus if I can get Kodiak and Anchorage properly mined. 

CenPac:  Quiet here.  Only a single Jap sub seen in this theater, near Palmyra.  It has been quiet for months.

SoPac:  CV Wasp arrived at Panama City and has been dispatched to San Francisco.  The two AKs carrying 2nd Marine Raiders steaming for NZ are still on the way.  A Jap TF was sighted NE of Auckland around the 30th, but not on the 1st.  I don't know what it was or what it was doing.  Possibly a Mini-KB.

Australia:  The Japs follow hot on the heals of the Aussie units retreating from Daly Waters.  Jap bombers are striking daily.  A Mini-KB is operating west of Perth and sank two isolated AKs that were on the way home to Aden.

India:  Quiet, though John is reconning the "interior" lines at places like Chittagong, Rangpur, etc.

Burma:  Static here - John hasn't made any moves yet on Lashio or Mandalay.

Situation:  If frequent attention is a sign of future Japanese intentions, then Australia or Alaska should be the locus of the next major thrust or thrusts.  Both theaters are receiving plenty of loving attention.  If, however, a total lack of attention is an indication that a region is the true target (the lack of attention there and the abundance of it elsewhere being a ruse to throw me off), then CenPac would be the objective.  My money is on Australia, and that's probably the area I worry about the most.  I think I can handle India, Alaska, and CenPac, but NZ and Australia are isolated and vulnerable.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/29/2007 9:47:18 AM >

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 111
Jap Focus on Australia and Alaska - 1/2/2008 10:23:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/2/42 to 7/9/42
 
NoPac:  The Allies had mixed luck getting the ML/DM/MLE force to Anchorage.  The DM/ML TF dropped 700 mines at Kodiak while the MLE TF made the run to Anchorage, but the latter encountered a Jap sub which fired, missed, but sighted the MLE.  So John is aware that the Allies have minelaying capability in Alaska now.  The DM/ML have already sown 3,000 mines at Anchorage.  Despite the mines at Kodiak, John sent a bombardment TF that worked over the airfield there on the7th.  His ships didn't hit any mines.  Another heavy bombardment group arrived on the 9th.  This time BB Yamato hit a mine, suffering an unknown amount of damage.  John also sent a DD TF (possibily including CAs) up the channel toward Anchorage.  Allied bombers sortied on the 9th, badly damaging a destroyer.  No recent signs of the KB.

CenPac:  No signs of Jap activity in this region.  Supplies at Palmyra are nearly 190k with forts nearly 9 and mines about 3,000.

SoPac:  The two AKs carrying 2nd Marine Raiders arrived at Gisborne, NZ a few days apart.  One has already unloaded its detachment and moved on to Auckland to unload supplies.  The second is about half unloaded.  No further signs of Jap TFs NE of NZ.

Australia:  A small Jap detachment (about 3k troops including base force, SNLF, and engineer unit) landed at Exmouth Bay on the 4th.  Is this to establish a base for aerial recon of the shipping lanes, or to serve as a base for an invasion of Perth/SW Australia, or both?  The Allied units retreating from Daly Waters have arrived at Tennant Creek where they'll make a stand for at least a week or two, perhaps longer.  The Australia HQ continued on toward Alice Springs.

India:  Quiet.  A Chindit unit is on the way from Karachi to Diamond Harbor.

Burma:  Both sides occasionally launch bomber raids, but no real concerted offensive activity here at the moment.

China:  Same thing as in Burma.

Situation:  I believe John is preparing for one or more major operations.  I still believe Australia/NZ to be the most likely targets, with Alaska a possibility, and a reasonable likelihood of an invasion behind the MLR in Burma - say Diamond Harbor, Chittagong, Cox's Bazaar, or Akyab.  Of these, the biggest blow would be a loss of Australia or NZ.  I think I can handle any effort he makes against India or Alaska.  I rate as unlikely the chances of a major operation against CenPac.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/2/2008 10:25:55 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 112
All Quiet... - 1/4/2008 12:53:36 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/10/42 to 7/14/42
 
It is awfully quiet in the Pacific right now - at least on the perimeter.  Who knows what's going on in the interior where the Japanese are likely moving men and material in one or more operations.

NoPac:  Allied minelaying operations continue at Anchorage - which now has 3000+ mines - and at Kodiak - which will have 1500+ by the 15th.  A US DD hit a mine at Kodiak on the 14th.  A Jap DD hit a sub-layed mine at Dutch Harbor on the 11th and sank.  It's time for another Jap bombardment TF to hit Kodiak, but no sign of any yet.  John may be rethinking this now that the port is mined.  If so, the Allied operation has accomplished its objective.  At this point I don't plan on sending any further infantry troops to Alaska.  I sent three MSWs to Kodiak a few days ago, but forgot I didn't have CAP there.  Bettys reminded me, sinking two of them and heavily damaging the third.

CenPac:  Quiet except for a lone Jap sub patroling near Hilo, Hawaii.  I'm sending a new RCT from San Francisco to Pearl to bolster the defenses a bit.  A newly arrived MLE will head from San Fran to Palmyra.

SoPac:  Quiet, although recon reports two CVs just north of Noumea on a NE heading.  A US Cavalry division and a large BF are loading on transports at San Fran and will make for Panama City.  From there I may try to get them to NZ or Australia.

Australia:  The Jap 48th and 18th Divisions have arrived at Tennant Creek with ten more units following.  We'll see how long the Allied can hold this base.  I think it will serve as a speed bump - right now I don't foresee making a stand here.  Jap Emily's based at Exmouth are reconning Perth.

India:  Quiet, although the Brit CVs, BBs, and other ships are heading from Aden (where they've been for several months) to Bombay.  At this point in the game, the Allied air force in India is growing strong enough that the fleet may be able to operate with some safety.  Can the Japs mount an operation for India at this late date?  I'm skeptical.

Burma:  Status quo - the main Allied defensive line at Akyab, Mandalay, and Lashio hasn't been attacked yet.  Jap divisions are within sixty miles of the latter two, but haven't made a move in several months.  Allied bombing raids on the airfield at Magwe destroyed about 20 planes on the ground.

China:  Quiet.  The main Allied line of defense - Wuchow, Kanhsien, Changsha, Honan, Sian isn't threatened right now.

Small Craft:  KXVI put three TT into an AP near Singapore on the 10th.  Spearfish got an AK there on the 14th.  I-6 put a TT into a damaged AK near Vancouver, but she made port.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 113
Japs on the Move in Australia - 1/8/2008 2:34:24 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/15/42 to 7/20/42

NoPac: There have been no further Japanese bombardment runs on Kodiak since Yamato hit a mine there on the 9th. Anchorage now has 5000 mines and Kodiak about 1500. Bombers have been active though. On the 15th, Betties from Cold Bay hit Kodiak, putting single TTs into a DM and a DD. Both suffered light/moderate damage and made Anchorage for repairs. On the 17th, B-17s from Anchorage scored single hits on two AKs at Cold Bay. I don't plan on reinforcing NoPac in the foreseeable future.

CenPac: This area continues quiet except for a Jap CL/DD TF hitting Christmas Island on the 17th, sinking a lone AK.

SoPac: Isolated Allied transports continue to "run the blockade," chancing the voyage from Panama City to New Zealand. Several TKs carrying fuel are making the transit now. Three AKs carrying a Seabee unit will follow soon. An AK carrying a Bolo squadron will arrive in Melbourne in about a week. SigInt reports several units making for (or in) Noumea, but I'm not sure whether John is bolstering his defences or preparing for an eventual invasion of NZ. Allied defenses of the northern Kiwi islands are pretty stout now. I'd like to transfer one US division to Australia, but won't chance it yet since NZ is still vulnerable.

Australia: The Battle of Tenant Creek is heating up and it's clear now that this is a major vector of attack for the Japs. A Jap deliberate attack on the 17th comes off at 0:1 with the Japs losing 2432/37/8 to 1693/68/3. But the Japs have reinforced with the Imperial Guards, newly arrived from the Philippines. The Japs have about 113k troops now. Since forts didn't drop, I'll stick around for at least one more assault before retreating to Alice Springs. The defense at Alice should be about 1300 AV with forts of at least 5, so that should be a major speed bump for the Japanese. Meanwhile, Jap Emilys based at Exmouth Bay have been actively reconning all the Allied bases flanking Perth. Then, on the 20th, elements of the 2nd Parachute Regiment took Kalgoorlie, cutting off the supply line to Perth. I may send an Aussie brigade from Perth to Kalgorlie to contest the base, or I may leave it in Perth if an invasion force shows up. Right now Perth defense is about 550 AV with forts 6. It should hold for awhile.

India: Quiet here.

Burma: Quiet here too, although I think John will eventually try something. I'm thinking either an attack on Lashio or an invasion of Akyab, Cox's Bazaar, Chittagong, or some point west. But we've reached a point in the game where it will be very hard and costly for John to threaten the Allies here and in India.

China: Quiet.

Small Craft: KXVI torpedoes an AP north of Singapore on the 18th. I-2 takes multiple depth charges at Astoria, Oregon on the 20th. Polack sinks an MSW near Midway the same day.

Situation: It appears that John is making a major effort in Australia, which was my biggest fear. Reinforcing Australia would be a tremendous help, but the sea lanes from the US and Panama are risky. I have 112th Cav Reg't moving from San Fran to Panama and it will be a long time before it can reach NZ or Oz. It is also time to begin planning te first Allied offensive in the Pacific even though the actual operation may be many months off. I have some ideas, but haven't committed yet.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 114
Grim Days in Australia - 1/9/2008 10:45:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/21/42 to 7/27/42

The Japs have isolated Perth and the garrison may be overwhelmed.  Dark days for the Allies, but at least the Allies are beginning to strengthen and can eventually strike back.

NoPac:  Quiet.  Anchorage now has more than 8,000 mines.  Once I get above 10,000, I'll turn my attention to Kodiak.  After Kodiak gets its fair share, most of these minelayers will return south.

CenPac:  Quiet.  Another RCT landed at Pearl bringing the AV to 1800+.  An MLE is approaching Palmyra.  I'll be a little nervous sending ships to take care of mining the port, but I think it's a risk I'll take.  Three or four DMs will head that way and will be protected by a surface combat TF including a slow BB.  I hope the island's CAP can offer protection for awhile.  I've also sent a small 3k AK south from San Fran to make it's way east of Christmas Island and then run the gauntlett between Pago Pago and Bora Bora.  I haven't tried this since John took the Society Islands, so I'm hoping the path might be open.  I'm contemplating trying to get some reinforcements to Australia, and I'd like to send them that way. 

SoPac and SWPac:  A fairly stout Mini-KB struck Sydney on the 21st and sank two small MLs (crud) and a PG.  A surface combat TF raid the next day did some more damage to a weak combat TF of PGs, a DMS, a DD or two, but the Japs also lost a DD (with a few others damaged) to gunfire and mines. This Mini-KB moved NE and is west of Auckland.  There's nothing there, and an AK carrying a Bolo squadron scooted by to the north and made Rockhampton.  A Glen recon aircraft sighted a  merchant vessel making for Panama and due SE of Bora Bora, so John may send the Mini-KB or other carriers that way.

Australia:  I'm in a pickle here.  Isolated and dispersed.  The Japs took Tennant Creek on the 21st with a 6:1 shock attack which cost them 3367/68/2 to 1426/31/9.  Then paratroops landed at Geraldton, taking that base on the second day (the 24th).  Now a big transport fleet has arrived there and is unloading troops.  With the demoralized, weakened Tennant Creek survivors retreating, I'll have a decent garrison at Alice Springs with an AV or something like 1000 and forts 6; Syndey has an AV of 1300; Brisbane about 350; and Perth currently has about 380 with another 125 over at Kalgoorlie trying to see if I can wrest that base from Jap paratroops and a mixed brigade that John is air transporting.  This attack will occur tomorrow (the 29th).  I'm not optimistic.  If it fails, the brigade will retreat back to Perth and I'll experience a Custer's Last Stand event.  If I retake Kalgoorlie, I'll have to decide whether to abandon Perth and retreat to either Melbourne or Sydney.   Right now, Melbourne, Rockhampton, Townsville, and Cairns have a brigade each and little or nothing else.  To make matters worse, Australia isn't scheduled for meaningful reinforcements for months - a tank regiment with an AV of 56 in about fifty days is it.  Yikes!  We've had a few air/sea battles around Perth - two Mini-KBs are operating there - one south of Perth caught up with a small convoy fleeing to Melbourne, sinking an MSW, TK, and AK.  The other Mini-KB is just west of Perth.  A small Liberator III squadron, some Hudsons, and two Beaufort squadrons have sortied a few times, damaging two APs with one hit each, and third with three hits (all bombs).  Hudsons and the Libs also struck the ground troops at Kalgoorlie, which is why I know John is transporting that mixed brigade in by air.

China/Burma/India:  Quiet.

Jap CVs:  Clearly, the Jap CVs are dispersed, which is a habit of John's.  He has two Mini-KBs near Perth, another stronger one near Auckland.  The main KB was in Alaska a month ago and lost alot of aircraft.  Surely the main KB is in need of upgrades and repairs.  Does John think Hornet was badly enoughed damaged in our Gulf of Alaska battle that she isn't fit for duty (she's back to 0 SYS and ready to steam).  Is there an opportunity to send reinforcements to Australia covered by (or as a shield for) the US CVs (I have four left)?  Could I engage a Mini-KB at good odds?  Or will I get pounced on by the KB?  I'm concentrating the US CVs at San Fran and may move south from there.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/9/2008 11:57:52 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 115
Ahem, about the Hibiki.... - 1/12/2008 12:45:11 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/28/42 and 7/29/42
 
A technology crisis at work kept me from the game for 48 hours, but I'm back in the saddle - although my pace will slow a bit for a little while.  In non-real life, the Japs are putting the squeeze on Australia.

NoPac:  The pace has slackened here considerably, as though John pulled out much of his ships and men to employ them elsewhere.  I'm finished laying mines at Anchorage.  The MLE and minelayers will move to Kodiak, where they'll be more at risk.  But if I can get in about five good days of laying mines, all the minelayers will move south except perhaps one or two DMs to remain in the area.  This area has all the ground troops I intend to send this way for some time to come. 

CenPac:  A Jap CL/DD TF raided Palmyra, sinking three AK and an MSW.  DD Hibiki hit two mines and was finished off in the afternoon by SBDs.  I have a surface combat TF on the way to protect the DMs moving to Palmyra.  I hope John send his raiders back in about a week.

SoPac:  John has beefed up recon and has sighted my scattered, isolated merchants.  Yet another Mini-KB found an isolated TK south of Papaete and sank it.  Helens at Raratonga sortied against another TK but missed.  John will vector in that Mini-KB to pick it off.  They Sydney raid force (another Mini-KB) seems to have parked at Norfolk Island.  I'm picking up SigInt that Jap troops are prepping for Gisborne, NZ.  This may be a feint, but it doesn't matter at this point.  Like Alaska, I've sent all the troops to NZ I plan to send in the short term.  The North island is pretty strongly held - Wellington, Gisborne and Auckland all have good-sized garrisons.

Australia:  SigInt reports the Jap 20th Div. is headed for Geraldton where John has already unloaded boukoup troops.  John had my Perth troops trapped, but the Aussie brigade that hustled to Kalgoorlie how put together a  victorious 2:1 attack, re-taking the base.  The Japs have the 1st Parachute Reg't, a Mixed Brigade, and a base force.  On the 29th, John dropped a weak element of 2nd Parachute Reg't.  I've got to hold Kalgoorlie.  I've also decided to evacuate Perth rather than risk isolation and destruction of my troops there.  I'd prefer that they retreat to make a last stand at Melbourne and Sydney if it comes to that.  Another brigade is reatreating as will a BF segment that came here from the Philippines.  I'll try to stagger the withdrawal to try to disguise it if possible.  I'd rather not have John re-load his transports and send his troops to the south coast.  Aussie bombers damaged two more AKs at Geraldton.

CBI:  Quiet. 



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 116
RE: Ahem, about the Hibiki.... - 1/12/2008 12:56:29 AM   
Cuttlefish

 

Posts: 2454
Joined: 1/24/2007
From: Oregon, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

DD Hibiki hit two mines and was finished off in the afternoon by SBDs. 



Bummer! You must have forgotten to have the ship stop at Borneo and pick up a good-luck snake.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 117
Struggle for Kalgoorlie - 1/15/2008 1:33:14 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/30/42 to 8/4/42
 
John continues applying the pressure that has existed since the outset of the game.  The onslaught was so quick, and so far reaching - and I am so inexperienced - that I haven't had much of a chance to regroup or take the initiative.

NoPac:  The US minelayers are at work at Kodiak.  On the 1st, two Jap DDs hit mines there, which I think spoiled a Jap bombardment run.  on the 3rd, Bettys hit the island.  The CAP took care of some, but others made it through and scored one TT hit on DM Preble, which suffered moderate damage.  The mine level at Kodiak stands at 3500.  I've left Preble and two other DMs there to finish the job.  ML Oglala is moving east with DD and DMS escort. B17s from Anchorage hit Cold Bay on the 2nd, sinking two MSWs.  John has rotated Oscars into one of his bases, and I get the distinct feeling that John intends to pull some of his forces out of here.  On the 30th, I-22 got clobbered by ASW at Sitka, but RO-34 sank AK Port Orford, which was serving as a picket ship in the Gulf of Alaska.

CenPac:  No action here.  The US combat TF has arrived at Palmrya and is providing protection for four DMs that are minelaying.  Palmyra has about 3,000 mines right now.  When the level reaches 5,000, I'll pull these ships out, either to Christmas Island or back to Pearl.

SoPac:  A wandering Jap combat TF including BB Kongo stumbled across a TK near Raratonga and sank her.  Two other isolated TKs are moving north toward Palmyra having given up on "running the blockade" to NZ.  A 4th TK is nearing Wellington.

Australia:  The Japs have been unable to re-take Kalgoorlie, although it was a close thing.  A 1:1 shock attack on the 31st failed, and now reinforcements are arriving.  The Allies will try a deliberate attack on the 5th to see if we can clear out resistance and open the road to Melbourne.  But it's going to be difficult to eliminate what seem to be veteran and/or elite Jap troops.  But I think evacuating Perth was the right thing to do - SigInt and other intel shows two Jap divisions (2nd and 20th) plus support troops were moving in for the kill.  If I can get my garrison to Melbourne, I'll have accomplished something.  To the northeast, the retreating Aussie units are nearing Alice Springs, but they took a beating - their AVs suffered greatly in the defeat at Tennant Creek.  The Allied defense of Alice Springs will have no more than 800 AV and forts 6.  That may serve as a speed bump for a little while, but Jap bombers from Tennant Creek and elsewhere rule the skies.   On the 4th, advance Jap units tried a shock attack on Perth's static units (a CD and a base force) that came off at 0:1, forts 9, and failed.  The Japs lost 258/12/4 to 214/4.  It was a shame to give up those fortifications, but it was the right thing to do IMHO.

India:  Quiet.

Burma:  Quiet.

China:  Quiet.  The Chinese troops garrisoning Changsha have an AV of 9500.  I've decided to prep them for Nanchang.  Maybe I can put some pressure on John there.

US CVs:  Remain at San Francisco.  I haven't decided whether I want to chance a reinforcement convoy to NZ or Oz yet.  I'm leaning against it.  Perhaps there is some place closer to CenPac to attack that might draw John's attention.

(in reply to Cuttlefish)
Post #: 118
RE: Struggle for Kalgoorlie - 1/15/2008 3:23:25 AM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		What are your plans in India/Burma and China??  It seems those areas are too quiet.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 119
RE: Struggle for Kalgoorlie - 1/15/2008 3:16:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Greetings, NYGiants, and congrats on your team in the NFC Championship Game.

I've mulled over some possibilities in CBI, in this order:

China:  This is my best opporunity because of the large number of ground troops available.  Much of the Changsha garrison is prepping for Nanchang.  It will take several months, but eventually I'll have AV about 7000 ready to move.

Burma:  We're stalemated here.  At present, I don't think John has enough to take Mandalay, or perhaps even Lashio, or Akyab.  But I think taking the offensive here would be risky - John can rule the skies if he wants to, and he could also shift forces here to cut off any advance I make.  So for now I'm going to be satisfied with a stalemate in Burma.

India: This is where I've been mulling over something a little more showy, but I'm not convinced I can do anything that would take some of the heat off Australia.  Two possibilities come to mind:  an invasion of Andaman Islands/Port Blair, or an invasion of Sumatra.  In order for this to be more than a nuisance that John would simply ignore until he decided to stomp it, it would have to bring the threat of a major base with base force and aircraft.  That, in turn, is risky, because if John does take Australia, he will still have time to send those troops elsewhere and this invasion force wouldn't stand a chance.

So What am I doing?  I'm pressed, but not yet desperate.  I'm hoping to avoid committing and losing a major force, awaiting the autumn (or even winter or spring) when the Allies truly become strong enough to take on the Japs in a fair fight.  Right now I believe I can hold on to the lines in China, Burma, India, CenPac, and possibly Alaska (although I think the chances of a major Jap advance there are becoming remote indeed).  Australia and NZ are isolated and vulnerable, but the odds are that any large reinforcement convoy would take a beating on the journey there.  I think I'm better letting them fight it out and taking a stab elsewhere - like Changsha in China, and perhaps an invasion in CenPac.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 120
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