Andy Mac
Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline
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Interesting analysis LBA attrition of the Japanese is difficult to achieve if they wont stand and fight without SEAC (which I knew when I took on this game) it is very very hard to attrit Japanese LBA.
Think about how the campaign has worked out
1. Ltd attack to secure New Britain
2. Hydra offensive towards South NG
3. Expanded Hydra towards north NG after KB destroyed
4. Switch to CENTPAC and attacks on Marshalls and Marianas
5. Failure of Mariana Attack after USN pilot pool and Hellcat pool empties.
6. Switch to Celebes/Borneo
7. Exploitation towards PI - defeated
8. Opportunistic grab at Malaya turns into major offensive
9. SEA offensive towards Hue via Bankok with supporting amphib invasions (Draws large amount of Japanese forces out of Luzon)
10. Failure of small North Borneo offensive
11. CENTPAC towards Bonins - hung up on mountainous Iwo Jima - 2nd wipe out of USN and Hellcat pools - USAAF pilot pool exhausted as well
12. Second attempt at Marianas 3rd wipe out of USN and Hellcat pools decision to bypass and go for Luzon
13. SEA Armies land at Manila behind main line of resistance allowing northern Luzon to fall after a hard campaign.
14. Subsidiary attack on India
15. Capture of Ceylon and Madras leads to major Indian offensive by land so I dont need ships and can use LBA but PZB does not engage.
16. Okinawa too hard - hit Apanami instead 4th wipe out of USN and Hellcats.
A few points to note
a. Japan has lost more Reppus and Shindens that I recieve of Hellcats and Corsairs combined. I estimate he must be producing nearly 800 of each per month.......hence my concentration on Mitsibushi engines
b. In stock map you need to capture an AF to use LBA only the P38J and P51 have the range to escort raids to bases where the Japanese have to defend.
c. Unescorted heavy bombers are crucified by defending CAP no matter what altitude they are at
d. In stock Level 9 forts, terrain and the all or nothing nature of AF capture make attacking and capturing bases the alles took historically almost impossible.
e. Until quite recently PZB was ground attack training his fighters and I had no way to intervene - when I was in a position to intervene (from my bases in SEA) after I had paid the price to attrit his AF he cried foul (and to be fair he was correct to do so as I was being opportunitsitic)
So how exactly do I attrit his LBA ? He replaces them with Gd Attack Trained pilots faster than I can, he produces more frames than I do (Only P38J's or carrier air has the range as P51's arrive very late and I only get 5 Sqns of them), I cannot attack anything vital without AF's most of which are mountainous terrain guarded by enough force to stop an insta capture until suicidal ship captains can unload reinforcements
The only place I could possibly have went a different direction was from Borneo to the PI BUT that means taking on lots of supporting AF's with few LR Fighters and he still had masses of troops in the PI so I made the call to go with the line of least resistance - the right call perhaps not but attacking a PI that could have been reinforced AT WILL from the North trying to take places like Manila with all the forces he had available before he diverted them to SEA - NO CHANCE....
The ONLY reason I was able to take Luzon was because I attacked and took Appari 1st at the end of lengthy LOC and because PZB had moved a large portion of his forces to SEA to try and save Bankok/Camranh Bay....
Andy
quote:
ORIGINAL: DW
quote:
ORIGINAL: ny59giants
If anything I learned from your AAR is the Allies need to have invasions take place under LBA protection or projection of it. With the weight of 4e bombers, they stand a chance. Iwo was too far away from any LBA being used.
I think the most important thing I've learned from this, and other AARs is how important it is to pry the Japanese out of the SRA as early as possible.
It's PzB's stockpiles of resources and oil that are allowing him to recoup the terrible losses Andy has inflicted on him and keep coming back for more.
This isn't a criticism of Andy's conduct of the war. By the time he was in a position to apply serious pressure in that direction, PzB had already controlled the SRA for two years or so and had enough resources and oil stockpiled to last him the remainder of the war. While attacking in that direction was still a valid approach, doing so with the strategic goal of denying PzB resources would have been senseless. After all, once PzB had enough, he had enough and it made little difference how large his surplus was.
As to Andy's decision to go for Iwo Jima, I agree that advancing under an LBA umbrella is optimal, but it was already getting so late in the game that going deep was really the best chance he had of getting back to a reasonable timetable. It was a gamble, but the payoff would have been huge. Considering the late date of the game at that point, I think it was worth the risk.
In the end, it wasn't the air battles that stalled the offensive. While it was expensive, Andy won them and got his troops ashore in pretty good shape. It's his inability to win the land battle against a couple thousand AVs sitting behind lvl 9 forts with a terrain bonus that really hurt him, and that's more a flaw in the LC model than Andy's tactics. I think that he could have put every division he had in the Pacific on that island, parked his fleet offshore and bombed it round the clock and it would still take him months and months to win the battle as it proved impossible to prevent PzB reinforced and resupplied it.
There was no way to stop the rush of small task forces and air transport that PzB used to reinforce and resupply the island. Even with complete control of the air and sea around Iwo Jima, they were still able to get through and I don't see what Andy could have done to stop them. In this game he's tried using big task forces to thwart such tactics, he's tried using lots of small task forces and he's tried using air cover. Nothing seems to work. As long as PzB has shipping to burn, which he does at this point in the game, he can afford to send ten supply ships on suicide supply runs to the island in order to allow one to get through. After all, he doesn't need his merchant marine for hauling resources or oil, so he can afford to burn them and that's what he's been doing.
With that in mind, it seems that the only sure way to prevent the Japanese player from reinforcing and resupplying an island in the inner defensive ring is to make sure that they don't have any supplies to send.
quote:
With you CV hurting, I would plan anything else under 4e bombers and, if possible, long range fighter protection. You can use the lower experienced fighters in back water bases gaining experience while your best are in the front lines.
I think everything of value is pretty much within range of 4e bombers now, isn't it?
I'd look for the highest point value targets that PzB can't easily reinforce, and attack them, no matter they are.
Off the top of my head, I'm thinking Shanghi. LBA could be brought to bear in a significant way. Secondary landings at Soochow and Hangchow can isolate the target from reinforcement by land and there is probably just enough time left in the game to starve it into submission before the game ends.
Hong Kong, while not as valuable in points, is also attractive for similar reasons.
If an attack on the HI is an absolute necessity from a game enjoyment point of view, I'd bite the bullet and dust off the Nagasaki plan that's been discussed here before.
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Printable Version
RE: Losses - 
Though it might not be good news for me - I may have already lost more than that in my '44 game... 
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