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Seige of Canton Fizzles

 
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Seige of Canton Fizzles - 4/5/2008 4:18:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/11/43 to 3/17/43
 
China:  The Chinese army fully arrived at Canton and tried a probing deliberate attack on the 17th.  With 351,317/1075/0 against a puny 95,149/1010/7, I had hopes of overwhelming the badly outnumbered Japanese troops, even in their forts.  But the urban hex multiplier extinquished that hope.  The raw AV for the Chinese was 11,000 (!), but it was adjusted down to 5638.  The raw AV for the Japs was 1600, but it was adjusted up to 26,457.  The resutling 0:1, 9 forts, cost the Chinese 5771/265 to 1666/33.  Actually, the losses weren't that unreasonably - about 3.5 to 1, or about the same ratio as the total troop numbers.   Thank goodness (and thanks to String's advice) I didn't try a shock attack.  I've just about given up hope at Canton, though I'll give it one more crack to see if a well-rested Allied assault manages to do markedly better.  If not, I'll call off the attack. 

An imporant objective of the Seige of Canton was to create a hotspot that would worry John and draw his attention and resources.  If my siege isn't capable of doing that, my fall back plan is to pull back my troops and again threaten Hanoi.  I have no intention of attacking Hanoi, but while that threat was building I would resume air transport of some units to Burma.  In fact, on the assumption that Canton is rather hopeless, I've already resumed the air transport program, lifting a Chinese unit from the city on the Hanoi border to Meiktila (previously the closest base I could use was Lashio, so the ability to move the troops closer to the front lines will help some.

I'll probably try to move 3 to 5 more units into Burma.  Once the Burma Airlift finishes, the rest of the Canton troops (assuming I call off the siege) will mostly go to Wuchow and Changsha to make sure those cities aren't vulnerable.

Burma:  An Allied deliberate attack ont he 17th came off at 0:1, didn't touch forts (remaining at 6), and cost the Japs 2038/63/12 to 3594/65/22.  Right now, Allied raw AV is about 3600, and the Japs have about 1600.  I have another 1000 AV a hex to the north protecting against a river crossing from Moulmein.  I can move some of these troops to Rangoon as other troops arrive from Meiktila (including those coming from China in the Burma Airlift program).  But John continues to rule the air and has reinforcements on the way to Rangoon according to SigInt.

Australia:  Sparrow Force battallion moved north from Melbourne to probe Albury where it found several mixed brigades, so John still holds that base in force.  Both Port Kembla and Newcastle are still too strongly held to risk leaving Sydney to attack, but I still get the feeling that John is pulling out.  One large transport fleet moved NE, but whether it was heading to reinforce islands in Cen and SoPac, or part of an invasion of New Zealand, I don't know.

CenPac:  The Allies continue to move everything possible from the West Coast to Hawaii.  Another CVL arrived at Panama City (Providence) and is heading for Pearl.  The Allies aren't ready to try anything yet.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 241
Seige of Canton Ends - 4/9/2008 8:25:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/18/43 to 3/29/43
 
I have heard others refer to the middle months of 1942 as the summer doldrums, because there's usually a lull in the action - the Allies are still too weak to attack, the Japs begin to fear the growing strength of the Allies, and alot of CVs are in port upgrading.  In our game, we're experiencing the spring doldrums.  John has clearly entered the phase where he is focusing on his defenses.  One sign is the lack of offensive activity (although he could still have designs on New Zealand or India), his pulling back in Australia, and the fact that he is now taking the few remaining Allied controlled dots in the Pacific (Goodenough Island, etc.).

The doldrums were delayed because the Japs kept the offensive so long and penetrated so deeply, and because the loss of Allied CVs kept me from taking offensive action.  But the time has come for the Allies to move forward, though cautiously...ah, perish the caution!  Time is against me so I'll have to take some risks.  But not for awhile yet, so the doldrums may continue.

Burma:  British forces took Magwe (the third city recaptured by the Allies in the game to date, following Meiktila and Geelong).  Chinese expeditionary units just arrived at Taung Gyi and will bombard tomorrow to see how strong the defenses may be.  I don't think I have enough to threaten that city yet.  The seige of Rangoon continues.  The Allies don't seem to be making any progress toward taking the city and the Japs are reinforcing.  So the primary objective of keeping Jap attention focused here remains my main objective.

Australia:  2/3rds of the Sydney fighting units moved south a hex to Port Kembla and will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.  John still has a small stack of defenders there, so I'm not quite sure what will happen.

CenPac:  I formed two CV TFs at Pearl (two of CVs, one of a CV and CVL) and sent them sprinting toward Midway where John has some ships in port.  However, my ships were sighted off French Frigate Shoals thus losing the element of surprise.  I'm pulling them back toward Pearl.  This was the first step in a plan to create the appearance of activity and threats here and there in CenPac, again meant to keep John on his toes.  My long-range plan is to side-step this area.

China: The Chinese gave up on accomplishing anything in Canton. After the failed deliberate attack of a week or so ago, part of a Jap division reinforced the city. I don't want to beat my head against the rock. Rather than using my reinforcements to replace combat losses at Canton, I'd rather have them available to reinforce the Chinese units in Burma. The stack of Chinese units will retreat to Wuchow. From there, I think I'll have the bulk of them prep for Hanoi, with no present intention of moving on that city. Then I'll send some of those units back to Changsha and move a stack to Lungchow to perhaps get John worried about Hanoi again.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/9/2008 8:30:21 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 242
What's John Up To??? - 4/10/2008 8:02:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/30/43 to 4/3/43
 
Australia:  The Allied assault on Port Kembla wasn't very impressive.  It came off at 1:1, cost each side less than 2k casualties, and showed that John has two divisions (2nd, 20th) still posted there.  That suggest to me that the Japs aren't pulling out of SE Australia - not if John still has two divisions at a relatively minor outpost like this one.  I would assume he also strongly holds Newcastle and Adelaide.  I immediately pulled my troops back to Sydney.  I wanted to make sure John wasn't waiting for me to move on Port Kembla in order to advance some kind of huge army into Sydney.  Nothing of the like happened.  I'll rest my troops a week and may give it another crack (I had left several brigades behind in Sydney to garrison the post; I think I can get a 2:1 if I bring most of my infantry).

Burma:  In a recent email, John commented, "Looks like you are concentrating for a final push on Rangoon.  Good Luck..."  Well, I don't have any plans to make a final push on Rangoon.  He has too much stuff there.  I do intend to keep my army bombarding there for some time to come, but in the meantime I'm giving attention to the hex to the north in case John tries to advance across the river.  I'm also a little concerned about a behind-the-lines invasion of Akyab or possibly a hex further west.  I have infantry units in the main cities, but the most important defense is to make sure I have adequate base forces at key bases so that any Jap invasion can be met with the full might of Allied air in India.  I would welcome a major Jap effort in India now as it would fully occupy John in a place I don't think he can win (at this late date in the game; Allied air is simply too strong).

China:  I'm pulling back my troops from Canton, with units going to various posts including Lungchow so that John will have to contemplate the possibility of an invasion of Vietnam.

John:  He's posted a thread titled, "Would it be INSANE to do this in April 1943" of somesuch.  He may just be blowing smoke, but I think he's probably contemplating an invasion of New Zealand.  He can give me fits there too, but it would have the benefit of keeping him focused in an area far away from where I want to go.  The only other "insanity" I can think of would be an invasion of India, and I would welcome that even more.  As noted previously, the worst thing that could happen would be for John to focus on his defensive lines now.  I'm way, way behind now and the only way I can get back in this game is for John to make a mistake or overreach.  If he plays conservatively and focuses on defense I may never get untracked.  So, I hope John concludes his ideas aren't insane.

CenPac:  The Allies continue to reinforce the Hawaiin Islands.  Two more CVLs and an Essex Class CV Enterprise arrive at Panama City in two months.  It would then take these ships two weeks to get to Pearl.  I hate to wait that long before launching the Allied offensive, but I would much prefer having Enterprise present.  Right now, the Allies have 3 CVs, 2 CVLs, and 8 CVEs at Pearl Harbor.  That's nothing to sneeze at.  The CVs and CVLs all fly Hellcats now.  When the reinforcements arrive, that will mean a carrier force of 4 CVs, 4 CVLs, and 8 or 9 CVEs.  That's not enough to take on the full KB, which is why I hope John will consider further offensives that will prompt him to divides his carriers, as he so often does.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 243
RE: What's John Up To??? - 4/10/2008 9:28:14 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
When the reinforcements arrive, that will mean a carrier force of 4 CVs, 4 CVLs, and 8 or 9 CVEs.  That's not enough to take on the full KB, which is why I hope John will consider further offensives that will prompt him to divides his carriers, as he so often does.


IMHO, I think that's enough to take on KB, provided you don't fight where he has a large advantage in LBA. That force can put up a CAP of 175+ Hellcats while still leaving alot for Escort, and that's enough to shoot down TONS of IJN planes. Some might get through, but you have a parade of new CV's coming to quickly replace them, he doesn't.

I haven't been following KB losses, but if he hasn't lost anything, he could have accelerated to:

9 Fast CV's (about 600 A/C)--includes Taiho, Unryu, Amagi
2 Slow CV's (100)--Junyo, Hiyo
4 CVL's (about 140)--Ryujo, Ryuho, Zuiho, Shoho
5 CVE's (another 150)

That is a total of almost 1000 A/C. HUGE, but you have 600, and the Hellcat evens the equation.

Even if he wins, he can't take you on without HUGE losses, at least in Pilots. And Japan can't afford that.

I could be wrong however, I have never seen a battle that big. Maybe that's why I am pushing, I want to see what a 1600 A/C CV battle looks like! (probably carnage)

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 244
RE: What's John Up To??? - 4/10/2008 9:57:33 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		The big question is where your main thrust will be: North, Central, or South Pacific?? IMO, the South Pacific as I would want to get back NZ and OZ there potential bases while the North is the most direct route to Japan. You need to get the huge American LBA into action to wear him down.

_____________________________


(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 245
RE: What's John Up To??? - 4/10/2008 10:38:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		QBall and NYGiants:

Those are the things I'm mulling over right now.  It's April '43 and if I wait for those carriers I spoke of it won't be until summer before the Allies try to get moving.

As best I can tell, John seems to have a thick "outer crust."  At least Midway and Papete appear heavily garrisoned, and given our fight over Wotje, I think the Marshalls probably are too.  Ditto Wake and Marcus.

I know that John has a very heavy presence in Australia.  I sure don't want to get into a slug-it-out, slow-grind land war there.

What I really would like to do is penetrate his perimeter and, if possible, establish such a menacing presence in his interior that he's left out of position - badly needing all those ground troops way out there on the perimeter, but requiring time and alot of transports to reposition them.

So I'm fiddling with a number of ideas, but I can't commit yet because developments over the next two months could either enhance or diminish the payoffs for those targets.

The plan will require full use of my CVs, QBall, so in all probability there will be a major carrier battle.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 246
What am I up to? - 4/13/2008 2:27:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/4/43 to 4/10/43
 
Fair questions, since it's nearing mid-1943 and I'm not doing much to get the Allies untracked.  Is patience a virtue or a vice?  We'll see.  John must be scratching his head, though, wondering what in the world I'm doing.  And I'm sure he's enjoying the absence of Allied offensive activity.

CenPac:  The Allies are moving everything possible from San Fran to various bases in Hawaii.  San Fran is nearly empty now.  I'm also considering several variations of my planned offensive; not quite pleased with anything.  I have plenty of time to think, though, since I'm awaiting those CV/CVL reinforcements that will be here in June.

Australia:  The Allied forces in Sydney are fully supplied and rested again, so I'll take another stab at Port Kembla.  This time all the infantry units are participating.  I don't have plans for any major offensive activity in Australia any time soon, but I want to make things as "busy" as possible.

Burma:  John has heavily reinforced Rangoon.  The Allies have too, but I don't believe the Allies can take this city.  Right now Allied AV is about twice that of the Japs (around 4500 to about 2300).  Outside the city, the Allies have 2000 AV across the river from Moulmein.  John has about 100k troops in Moulmein - I'm guessing at least two divisions strong.  I am concerned about a Jap counter-offensive here, or here and behind my lines, so I'm more defensively minded right now.

India:  I'm still keeping in the back of my mind John's "War Room" thread about some "insane" idea he is contemplating.  I really wonder if he has offensive plans in mind for India (if he does, I truly think it's an insane idea, but I have no right to question his strategic planning considering how he's doing in the game).  At first I figured he was thinking about New Zealand, but each day that passes seems to make that idea less likely.  I think he could've already moved on NZ if that was his objective.  In the meantime, he is actively reconning Ceylon and the eastern and northeastern bases in India.  Worried about this attention, I moved the Royal Navy CVs back to Bombay so that they aren't quite as exposed to a sneak attack.  My land defenses of India and Ceylon are weak, and in the short term the Japs could make some progress, but Allied airpower would be overwhelming in the long run (or so I believe, though it's an honest belief). 

China:  Okay, John has pulled divisions out of China to employ elsewhere, mainly Australia.  I've tried to major attacks here (Nanchang and lately Canton) employing overwhelming numbers of Chinese infantry against outnumbered but well-fortified Jap defenders.  The Japs easily repulsed each.  So John isn't feeling any heat in China.  I would like him to feel some heat, so that this theater too requires his attention and resources.  Therefore, I am once again thinking about an invasion of Vietnam, using the troops already fully-prepped for Hanoi (some 2000 AV mostly stationed at Lungchow) plus many more troops on the way to the area from Canton.  I don't have enough political points to transfer the HQ assignment for all the units I'd like to use, but I think I can put 4500 AV or so on the ground against Hanoi in short order, with more units in reserve and able to move forward as more PP become available.  I would really like this offensive to succeed so that I can take Hanoi (and possibly Haiphong too) and then move south in a move that would threaten the rear of John's army in Burma and Rangoon, but even if I get stymied and a standoff develops, at least it should draw John's full attention.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 247
RE: What am I up to? - 4/13/2008 5:53:57 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline 		Hi Dan, I'm reading both your and John's AARs, and have been quite entertained!  

Since I am reading both sides, I have been relatively quiet so I don't give anything away to either of you. 

As for your efforts in China, I don't think it's giving anything away to suggest to you that a lack of combat engineers has been a major weakness on your part.  Every large scale siege of a well fortified base that I have seen has been very ineffective until engineers can be brought in to reduce the forts.  Once the forts start dropping, things start to happen. 

Best of luck!  I'll be reading eagerly to see how the Allies get their revenge in this one! 

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 248
RE: What am I up to? - 4/14/2008 5:04:59 AM   
rtrapasso


Posts: 22653
Joined: 9/3/2002
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: USS America

Hi Dan, I'm reading both your and John's AARs, and have been quite entertained!

Since I am reading both sides, I have been relatively quiet so I don't give anything away to either of you.

As for your efforts in China, I don't think it's giving anything away to suggest to you that a lack of combat engineers has been a major weakness on your part. Every large scale siege of a well fortified base that I have seen has been very ineffective until engineers can be brought in to reduce the forts. Once the forts start dropping, things start to happen.

Best of luck! I'll be reading eagerly to see how the Allies get their revenge in this one!

i don't think there are any Combat Engineer separate units for the Chinese (for CHS true... none on the "board" to start in CHS, nor any reinforcements)

There are engineer units in China, but these are all Base Force types... i guess you could bring some in from SE Asia if you have air transport or a couple of months and an open Burma road to march someone into the theater.

(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 249
Jap CVs Crusing North of Hawaii - 4/14/2008 11:49:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/11/43 to 4/14/43
 
CenPac:  On the 12th, a merchant convoy heading from the West Coast to Hawaii reported a Jake scout plane.  This caused consternation among the vast number of convoys moving between the two areas.  The US CVs and CVLs sortied from Pearl and headed NE.  On the 14th, I reconfigured my fleets, putting Essex into it's own CV TF - there were then four CV TFs - two with a CV and CVL, one with just a CV, and one with just a CVL.  Each TF had a BB included in the escort mix.  Apparently, however, I failed to give the new Essex TF orders to follow the combat TF like the other CV TFs and she headed back to Pearl.  Yipes!  On the 15th, Jap CVs are spotted to the north.  I've ordered my CVs to head south four hexes, and for Essex to head back north and rendezvous with them.  The rendezvous point is within LRCAP range for P38s flying from Hilo and the adjacent base.  I've also formed the CVEs into two TFs and ordered them NE.  I would be surprised if John heads south toward Hawaii, but we'll see.   I'm willing to give battle here if I can get Essex lassoed and back with the pack.

Is this CV raid the "insane idea" of which John wrote of in his War Room thread?  If so, I'm disappointed.  I really was hoping John would take a big chance with his army to invade NZ or India.  I don't want him focusing on defense, but that may be exactly what he's doing.  Besides, a carrier sweep well north of Hawaii isn't sufficiently crazy to warrant a plea of insanity.

Australia:  The Sydney defenders tried another deliberate attack at Port Kembla, but it came off at 0:1 and cost the Allies 3k casualties to just 500 for the Japs.  I've scrapped that mission and ordered my troops back home. 

Burma:  The Allies take Tyaung Gai on April 15th, the fourth city reclaimed in the war to date (following Meiktila, Geelong, and Magwe).  The three Chinese units involved wiill follow the Jap defenders into Thailand.  The Indian division will head south toward Rangoon.

India:  Japs continue to recon the east coast and Ceylon and I'm crossing my fingers and hoping John really sends an invasion force this way.  I think such a move would warrant a plea of insanity, and at this point I'd prefer an insane opponent over one who is cautious.

China:  Chinese troops late from the Canton expedition are arriving at various bases - primarily Lungchow and Changsha.  John has a unit that used one of those "yellow, slow-going, backwoods" roads to get behind Changsha, but it's not going to accomplish anything other than to get surrounded.  I'm still thinking about moving on Hanoi or Haiphong.  Haven't decided yet.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/14/2008 11:53:28 PM >

(in reply to rtrapasso)
Post #: 250
RE: Jap CVs Crusing North of Hawaii - 4/15/2008 4:36:35 AM   
Redd

 

Posts: 203
Joined: 7/22/2005
From: Livermore,CA.
Status: offline 		WOW, very good reading so far. I'd been following Johns AAR for a while now but somehow hadn't been following yours and I've lateley rectified that situation. As I've read most of John's AAR I don't want to comment on specifics, but I think that I can help you a little on technique(sp) when it comes to land combat. First of all ya gotta spread out. You can't brute force an urban hex; you gotta grab it and surround it. Cut off supply and those guy's er dead. Land movement rules are brutal in this game. If youre in a contested hex you can't move out of it if it's marked as enemy controled in the destination hex. send in enough to each city to hold it(the urban bonus works both ways) and then take the units you have left,divide them , and then spam them into the clear hexes in between the roads.Work them around and close the roads. Put an "a" in every hex you can. Done right you can 'grab' his army and hold it tight while starving them out. Hope this helps

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 251
RE: Jap CVs Crusing North of Hawaii - 4/16/2008 5:01:56 AM   
Big B

 

Posts: 4870
Joined: 6/1/2005
From: Old Los Angeles pre-1960
Status: offline 		Canoerebel, you have done well to keep your head and stay in the game against a very experienced, competent, (and aggressive) opponent.

I see you have re-equipped with P-38's and F6F's. Be as patient as the situation allows, and await the late summer and your major 1943 CV reinforcements.

A Full House of Essex's and Independence's equipped with Hellcat's will give you what you need to reverse the situation at sea.

If the situation allows, DON'T do anything rash until Fall '43. If you can at all afford to - wait. By the fall, you will not only have many good CV's and CVL's, but you will start getting swamped in B-24's AND more, excellent, longer range fighter planes. That combo can change the front line situation overnight.

Easier said than done I know - and you have done very well to date - so your instincts have proven pretty sound.

Hang in there and when the time is right - make him bleed (don't worry about being on the wrong end of the pilot pool in a battle of attrition...you have nothing to fear there).

B

_____________________________

Big B's Shipyard

(in reply to Redd)
Post #: 252
RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel - 4/16/2008 10:25:49 AM   
Powloon

 

Posts: 137
Joined: 10/12/2006
Status: offline 		Hi Canoerebel, Just caught up great read and congratulations on hanging on in there!

I was wondering if you had built up the bases on French Frigate Shoals and Laysan Island? If not it might give you an avenue of attack (and training) for your LBA on Midway (which he is operating at the end of a long supply line whilst you have a major base near by) and help provide cover for CV operations in the area. At the very least will provide some search cover in an area where he can move his CVs in and out of at will.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 253
RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel - 4/16/2008 4:49:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/15/43 to 4/20/43
 
Gents, thanks for the comments, encouragement, and suggestions.  I've noted how careful readers are not to give away any "intel" from reading my opponent's AAR, which is commendable and much appreciated.  Here's the situation:

CenPac:  The big CV battle north of Hawaii didn't happen.  John moved his CVs west back to Midway, carefully avoiding moving within range of LRCAP or LB bombers from Hawaii.  The Allied CVs also moved west, but while remaining within LRCAP of Hawaii and French Frigate Shoals.  My CVs are still out there, but will return home soon.  (The Allies have fully built up French Frigate, and have just begun work on Laysan Island).

Australia/NZ:  Standoff in Australia continues; no sign of Japs moving on NZ.

Burma:  The Japs now have 30 units about 120k strong at Rangoon, and another sizeable force 100k in Moulmein.  But I don't think the Japs can successfully move against the Allied force beseiging Rangoon, nor the force in the hex to the rear.  I suspect John is considering a move by sea around my flank and against my rear, but we'll see.  For the foreseeable future, I'm content with a seige at Rangoon drawing in all available forces.  Once the Allies take control of the air - autumn '43 should be about right - I can try to change that.

China:  Allied troops gathering at Lungchow on the Vietnam border, a situation John will not have missed.  I'm not ready to invade Vietnam yet.  I'm letting political points build until I can transfer perhaps three more large units to Southeast Asia, and then I will make the decision.

Allied Plans:  I think John believes a move by the Allies is imminent, which suits me since nothing will happen for several months yet.  So as the tension builds, perhaps he will make a mistake (his recent CV cruise north of Pearl Harbor is the kind of move that could potentially lead to disaster, and that's the kind of thing I'm hoping for while I'm gathering and planning while waiting for Allied carrier strength to build).

The Allies have been mulling ove a variety of plans for the "breakout offensive" that will occur later this year.  This attack will have to be massive and create major problems for the Japs, since it will be happening so late in the game and with the Allies so far behind schedule.  If it isn't massive and successful, it would likely be the end of the game.

Given Jap carrier power, the attack needs to occur at a location where John doesn't have vast amounts of LBA available.  That means the attack has to take place either at a remote locale or someplace unexpected where the Allies can seize an airfield or two and transfer in some fighters for CAP before the Japs can fully react.

At this point the Allies are leaning towards two plans:

(1)  Operation Red Planet:  A two-stage attack, the first to take Marcus Island (currently just a level 2 airfield) to give the Allies a support base; followed by a major invasion of the Philippines.  The latter target is based on the assumption that it would catch John totally by surprise, that it would be lightly garrisoned, and that the Allies could bring enough troops, supplies, ships, and aircraft to create a self-supporting colony the could handle both defense and offense (against Japanese shipping in the South China Sea) and withstand the Japanese counterattack.  The selection of optimum pre-invasion targets would be possible by using the Allied base at Iloilo.  The Japs still haven't taken this hex (John used is as bombing practice) and it has a small base force and infantry unit.  Prior to the invasion, the Allies would transfer in recon aicraft from China/Burma/India and scout Manila, Aparri, Davao, etc.  Once the invasion occurred, the Allies could transfer aircraft into newly seized bases from the CBI theater.  It may also be possible to air transport Chinese units into some of the bases in NW Luzon (I'm not sure they are in range, but I'll check).  If this operation were successful, it would essentially put the Allies back on schedule and leave John with the massive logistical hurdle of retrieving his units from far-forward bases (Society Islands, New Caledonia, Australia, etc) that were no longer very relevant to the game.  This plan depends greatly on the availability of Iloilo.  If John takes it in the next 30 to 45 days, it would decrease the likelihood of choosing this plan.

(2)  Operation Blue Planet:  A massive invasion of the nothern-most Japanese Home Island - the one with Sopporro.  John has held the Aleutian chain since early in the game and I've done absolutely nothing up there, so I hope there's a chance that John would not consider that northern island a likely target.  If by a sudden, surprise invasion the Allies could seize most or all of the island, establsih the airbases, and ward off any counterattack, it would give the Allies the base they need within air range to commence bombing the HI in '44.  Once the Allies had secured this island, they could then focus on retaking the Aleutians.  I started seriously contemplating this operation two days ago, and yesterday John posts a thread titled something like "Situation on My Northern Perimeter."  So clearly he's not totally ignoring this possibility.  This opeation would become more likely if the Japs re-take Iloilo or if there are other indications an Allied move on the Philippines was contemplated by the Japs.

(3)  If neither of these plans looks feasible, I don't know what the fallback would be.  The Allies won't have time to ****foot around, starting from scratch to attack the outer perimeter of Jap-held islands.  I've got to begin somewhere inside that perimeter, both to get closer to the heart of Jap territory and to make the spread-out, far-flung nature of the Jap empire work against them from a logistical standpoint.

Edit: Okay, I'm glad the forums don't allow vulgarities, but in my neck of the woods "puss_foot" around isn't a vulgarity.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/16/2008 4:54:04 PM >

(in reply to Powloon)
Post #: 254
RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel - 4/16/2008 4:58:01 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		Wow, you can't be accused of not thinking BIG there! How close do you think you could get to Hokkaido before John sees your fleet? If he holds part of the Aleutians, I would think he could get a pretty long early warning system. If you want to force a decisive naval battle, that would be a good way to do it!

Seizing Marcus would help both objectives, so maybe that should be your target. You are right I think that invading Pago Pago or something like that wouldn't be productive; you would just be compressing his defenses inward. If you press elsewhere, it's a safe bet he would withdraw almost everyone from down there, so if you wanted the points and supply line, should be easy to take at that point.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 255
RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel - 4/16/2008 5:21:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Okay, so it's Hokkaido (thanks Q-Ball).  The invasion fleet would approach from Pearl Harbor, so I think it could get relatively close before being sighted by Jap recon.  The main thing is that it's far enough out on the periphery that John's CVs shouldn't be able to immediately intervene.  (I know I have to face either Jap LBA or Jap carrier-based air, I just don't want to face both at the same time; I'm assuming that John will base most of his CVs in a central position (Midway, or perhaps Kwajalein) so that he would be in the best postion to react to an attack on either extreme (north, or an Allied invasion of Society Islands, or attempt to reinforce Australia).  I haven't looked yet at what defensive forces Hokkaido begins with, and what reinforcements it gets.  But the Allies would invade with at least 4 to 6 divisions and a heck of alot of support troops.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/16/2008 5:22:38 PM >

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 256
RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel - 4/16/2008 7:42:57 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		I think it's a big gamble, but you're behind, so maybe a worthwhile gambit. I think it's a good idea. A BOLD idea, but good one. I wonder what others think.

KB at full-steam can probably motor to the HI within 10 days from most places on the map. That means with your transports, you need to be able to get within 20 hexes without being seen. Can you do that? You have to look at the map and figure out how to vector in via open ocean. If you can't, you're taking a huge risk. Also, you will likely face the CV air anyway, if John pulls them off the CV's and moves them there, which I would do if someone was invading the HI! EVERY plane would be greeting you there!

You better bring alot of engineers and planes, because the whole IJA is going to be landing on Hokkaido within 30 days of invasion. 4-6 divisions seems a bit short to me. You need every Corsair you own, plus lots and lots of strike aircraft.

I totally want to see you try this! It is a big risk.

The only other direct approach would be Sumatra. Pretty tough to land there though without more CV support. Though, if you are going for Hokkaido, plan a simultaneous landing on Sumatra, like Sabang or Padang, or something. It's a safe bet if you are landing on Hokkaido, you will NOT encounter any air units opposing you, so even if Hokkaido fails, you get a foothold in the DEI.

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Post #: 257
RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel - 4/16/2008 8:00:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think I gave the impression that I had selected Operation Planet Blue when I said, "Okay, so iit's Hokkaido.  Thanks Q-Ball."  Instead, I was just simply acknowledging the name of the island as Hokkaido, something I had left unclear in previous posts.  My preference remains Operation Planet Red (the invasion of the Philippines), with Planet Blue my second choice.  Alot will happen between now and June or July or August, the point where I'm actually ready to move, so there will be constant re-evaluations, misgivings, optimism, pessimism, etc.

I usually try to cobble together two invasions, so that the second can move in the vacuum created by the first, much as you suggest Q-Ball.  But invading Sumatra will be very difficult as nearly the entire British Empire army is tied up in Rangoon and the hex to the north, with no substantial reinforcements on the way in the next 4 months.  I'll have to give this some thought.  A major factor will be whether the Chinese invade Vietnam and, if so, whether they make good progress.  If the answer on either count is "no," then I'd be more likely to air transport more Chinese units into Burma, which could free up British and Indian units.  If the Chinese were successful in Vietnam, however, they would probably move south toward Saigon or into the interior, threatening the flank of the Japanese army in Burma.

Lots to think over while I await US CVs.  The US gets alot of them in the next four months, then there's a lull for another month or two.  By then the US would have the old Sara and York, the new Enterprise and Lexington, and Essex, Intrepid, and I think Bunker Hill.  That would give the Allies 7 fleet CVs, a handful of CVLs, and a host of CVEs.  Equipped with Hellcats, it would be tough for even massed Jap air strikes (carrier, LBA, or both) to gain a victory (judging by the performance of Hellcats in my game with Miller, which is also this mod).  There would be some risk, but I would feel pretty confident in the success of the venture as long as I didn't pick a target where the Japs would have the advantage on the ground.

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 258
RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel - 4/17/2008 1:08:19 AM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		Got it, and apologize for clogging your excellent AAR with long posts.

On second thought, I think invading Hokkaido might be a little crazy with anything less than 10 divisions. Unless he has spent the PP's to move it, there is a good chance at least 1 large IJA division, the 7th, is in Sapporo with 9 forts; a tough nut to crack quickly. You definitely need to capture Wakkanai and Sapporo quick to negate his ability to reinforce the place. Interesting idea though.

Looking forward to the offensive!

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Post #: 259
Dumb Allied Player Part II - 4/19/2008 4:38:51 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Things have been quiet all over as the Allies sit tight in Hawaii, Australia, Burma, and China.  I still think this quietness serves a purpose, as I think John is expecting something big and the longer the quiet lasts the more his unease could build.

I mentioned a few posts ago that John had sent a unit behind the Chinese front lines, using one of those yellow-brick roads that take forever to travel.  I figured this was a fairly small unit probing my defenses.  I was worried that it might take an ungarrisoned city, so I air transported an infantry unit into the likely candidate, and then sent five other units after it.  That Jap unit finally arrived at Kwieyang (spelling?) SE of Chungking.  A bombardment attack revealed that it is a full division.  I think John's plan was to take that ungarrisioned city (just east of Kwieyang) and then air-transport in reinforcements.  It took me a long time to figure that out.  But if that was the plan, it won't work.  Both cities are adequately garrisoned and five other units are closing in.  I may have a nice chance to wipe out a Jap division in China, and John's army there is already below normal strength since he moved so many Jap units out of China to the Pacific.

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 260
RE: Dumb Allied Player Part II - 4/19/2008 4:48:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/21/43 to 4/28/43
 
China:  The Jap division is the 104th, which engaged in a deliberate attack at Kweiyang on the 28th.  By that point, another Chinese unit had arrived, giving the Chinese a raw AV of 600+ with forts 9.  The resulting deliberate attack came off at 0:1 and cost the Japs 1629/25 to 21/2.  The Chinese will try a counterattack tomorrow.  Three more Chinese units will arrive in a day or two.  The Allies will try to wipe out this division.  I wonder if John will scramble to try to come up with some way to save it?  Any plan would be long odds, though, because this unit is deeply inside Indian country and completely surrounded and isolated.

Vietnam:  The Chinese AV at Lunchow now exceeds 6,000, and this certainly got John's attention.  He has reinforced both Hanoi and Haiphong.  I'm reconning to determine his strength.  If the defenses look stout, I'll have to be satisfied staying put, looking menacing, and keeping him focused on this area.

Burma:  A multitude of Jap ships, aircraft, and land units have infested Moulmein and Rangoon, so the Allied offensive is truly mired down.  I don't foresee any possibility of changing that until the Allies take control of the air, which should be in about five months.  Meanwhile, I still worry about a Jap end-run invasion into India, but no sign of anything yet.

Australia:  Quiet here too.  I advanced a small unit a hex west of Sydney and it sighted two Jap units another hex west.  I'll advance to see what's there.  It could be a token force watching over the road, or it could be a large force that was waiting to advance into Sydney if I left the base again to move on Newcastle or Port Kembla.

CenPac:  Seabees are working at Jarvis Island south of Palmyr and Christmas.  It should reach level one in a month or so.  When it does, I'll move a squadron of P38s there and, under their cover, stage a demonastration toward Canton Island.  The demonstration would consist of a bunch of empty AKs covered by a stout combat and carrier force.  The sudden appearance of this force in conjunction with the buildup of Jarvis might get John thinking that could be the main vector of attack, which would suit my purposes.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 261
Que pasa, Nippon? - 4/21/2008 6:58:10 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/29/43 to 5/4/43
 
Bay of Bengal:  If John intends to get crazy and invade India, now is the time.  I've mulled this over all weekend and came to the conclusion that it simply makes no sense for hime to invade the main subcontinent (it would require too many troops) or Ceylon (what good would that do him).  So an invasion of Akyab, Cox's Bazaar, or Chittagong seems most probable.  Allied subs stationed near the mouth of the Straits of Malacca sighted a TF on a NW heading - that means it's going to Sabong, India, or that it's a decoy.  I've postioned my base forces and readied my bombers as best I can.  I firmly believe a Jap invasion is in the Allies' best interest, so here's hoping....

China:  The Jap 104th Division is cut-off in Kwieyang and the Chinese attack every day.  It will take a long time to reduce this division, but I think it's toast.  I'm still mulling over whether I want to invade Vietnam, but the Chinese build-up of troops at Lungchow has drawn John's full attention, which suits me.

CenPac:  A transport convoy is about to arrive at Laysan Island between French Frigate Shoals and Midway.  This is no-man's land, so I've detailed a stout combat TF to accompany it, and all US carriers will take station a few hexes to the east, partially protected by P-38s from French Frigate. I don't want a battle here, but I do want to create more "noise" to draw John's attention.  Assuming nothing happens, in about two weeks the carriers will sprint south to Jarvis Island (south of Palmyra) to make some noise there.  John's expecting something now, and I sure want to give all kinds of evidence of impending action in CenPac, so that (hopefully) he doesn't spend too much time thinking about his rear areas.

Operation Red Planet:  The Allies still hold Iloilo with no sign of Jap attention here.  This is crucial, so I have my fingers crossed.  The Japs are making a concerted effort to take Allied .dot bases near Sumatra and off New Guinea's east coast.  It would make me very happy if that's where John's attention remains.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 262
Goodbye, Arizona - 4/22/2008 4:20:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/5/43 to 5/9/43
 
CenPac:  The Allied operation to protect the Seabee units landing at Laysan Island, west of French Frigate Shoals, went awry.  The transports were accompanied by a combat TF flagged by BB Arizona; the US CV TFs remained two hexes to the east, providing some LRCAP - a modest number of Hellcats and F4Fs that I thought would be sufficient to handle anything that Midway might send.  The rest of the carrier CAP plus P38s from French Frigate provided CAP for the carriers.   Morning and evening strikes by Bettys from Midway came in.  The CAP engaged in dogfights with Zeros, letting too many Bettys through.  Arizona took 6 TT and went down.  No other ships were damaged.  (This was an expensive lesson; a reminder that Hellcats seem to tear Jap carrier based air to shreds, but don't seem particulary effective against Bettys.) 

Australia:  Quiet, though John has shifted his forces around a bit, after the Gull Force Batallion moved two hexes west of Sydney and found two Jap tank regiments there.  John promptly moved an infantry division to support the armor units.  He still has alot of power in Australia, and I would prefer that it remain right there for some time to come.

Bay of Bengal:  No sign of a Jap invasion force yet, but I'm still worried.  The RN CVs are just rounding Ceylon on the way to Madras, where they will remain for a week or so.  (I think these CVs, augmented by land-based CAP, can handle whatever carriers John has in this area, since I believe the main KB is somewhere in CenPac).

Burma:  Three Chinese units are moving east from Tayung Gai, opposed by the two defeated and fatigued Jap divisions, which are now posted behind a river.  Dakotas are transporting another Chinese unit from Lungchow to Tayung Gai to prevent the Japs from taking the city by paratroop assault.  The situation at Rangoon and the hex to the north remains the same, although the Japs just reduced their Rangoon garrison from 29 units to 26 (the reduction didn't include infantry units).

China:  The Chinese are having trouble exterminating the cut-off Jap division at Kweiyang.  Assaults occur at 500 to 1 odds, but the Chinese lose 2x or 3x the number of troops.  So I"ll change the routine from repeated attacks to attacks followed by two or three days of bombardments.  I still don't see any way for John to rescue this division, assuming the Chinese can eliminate it within a month or so.

Operation Planet Red and Planet Blue Planning:  The Allies are beginning to evaluate how many transports are available to carry which units.  By June, the Allies should have enough APs and LSTs to carry 6 or 7 divisions (they'll have at least eight to choose from, including 3rd Marine Division and seven army divisions).  A vast number of AKs will carry the rest - including smaller infantry units, artillery, armor, headquarters, engineers, CD, base forces, aircraft, and a heck of alot of supplies (plus replenshment TFs and plenty of TKs to bring enough fuel to support the American fleet for months).  I think every single AP, APD, AK, LST, AO, and TK then in the eastern Pacific will participate in the invasion.  The invasion should include more than 500 ships.  Iloilo remains quiet and Marcus Island remains a level 2 airfield, so Operation Planet Red remains the favorite at the moment. 

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 263
RE: Goodbye, Arizona - 4/23/2008 3:55:47 AM   
Redd

 

Posts: 203
Joined: 7/22/2005
From: Livermore,CA.
Status: offline 		Hey CR, just wanted to throw in my 2 cents worth. While I think that going for the PI would make interesting reading, I'm not sure it's gonna turn out very well. Do you think that you have a big enough carrier fleet to take on the combined KB plus basically the entire jap LBA, cause that's what it's gonna be like. By the time you finish landing he's gonna be on you like a cheap suit, and your gonna have to run the gauntlet all the way back to Pearl. You run the risk of gutting your entire fleet, and stranding 3 corp worth of troops in the PI. I don't think that you will be back to resupply the troops till '45.






(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 264
RE: Goodbye, Arizona - 4/23/2008 6:21:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Redd, you do a good job painting a picture of what may be a worst-case, but nonetheless realistic, outcome of Operation Red Planet.  But I think it can be done under the right circumstances.  Here's my analysis:

1.  By the time this operation is ready to go, it will probably be August 1943.  That's awfully late in the game for the Allies to be starting offensive operations, so the Allies don't have time to spend on a more traditional campaign.

2.  By then, the Allied carriers should be able to win a CV battle against the KB, even if John brings everything he has.  The Allies should have at least 7 fleet CVs (5 Essex class), an equal number of CVLs, and something like 10 CVEs. That could be roughly 550 Hellcats, and I don't think the Jap carrier-based air can handle that.  Operation Planet Red would first move on Marcus Island (if that island is still a level 2 - or even level 3 - airfield).  I believe the CV battle would take place at or before I reach Marcus, so LBA wouldn't be as much a factor.

3.  That CV battle would doubtless deplete CV sorties, so the Allies will need a base to refuel and replenish aircraft and guns prior to moving on the Philippines.  Marcus would serve that purpose.

4.  If - and this is an imporant if - the Allies still hold Iloilo, they will be able to transfer in recon aircraft from China in order to recon Japanese bases in the PI (I could accompliish this before John would have time to take Iloilo, even if he had sufficient ships and ground units available to devote to that effort).  Thus, the Allies will know beforehand how strongly Luzon is held.  If it is strongly held, I would likely change targets to something like Eniwetok or other key islands behind the Jap front lines.

5.  This plan is predicated on catching the Japs by surprise.  I don't think it is unreasonable to think John is focusing on an attack on Midway, Australia, or other points along his perimeter.  He certainly has a ton of troops on both Midway and in Australia.  If that's the case, would John have alot of base forces in the PI?  I don't think so.  If not, LBA wouldn't be a big factor.  The Allies could land at Luzon, take several bases, unload fighters, and transfer in other fighters from China.

6.  If Luzon is lightly held and the Allies get established, the Japs won't be able to contest the island.  The Allies will have plenty of P38s, Corsairs, and Hellcats based on the island and by autumn I don't think the Japs stand a chance in an a2a campaign.

7.  If successful, the operation would create a crisis for the Japs.  Most of the Jap army would be caught way out of position and John would have a nightmarish logistical task of retrieving them and getting them into a position to fight again.  All the Jap troops in the Societies, Midway, the Marshalls, New Zealand, Australia, etc. suddenly become largely irrelevant.

8.  The Allies will have many chances to reevaluate this plan and to cancel or modify:  any time between now and inception; if the carrier battle goes badly; if the Marcus Island operation goes badly; if the Japs take Iloilo; and if recon from Iloilo shows Luzon strongly held.

So, Operation Planet Red is very iffy now, but I hope it's still a viable option come July or August, because it sure will be fun to try.

(in reply to Redd)
Post #: 265
RE: Goodbye, Arizona - 4/24/2008 5:21:54 AM   
Big B

 

Posts: 4870
Joined: 6/1/2005
From: Old Los Angeles pre-1960
Status: offline 		I'll be damned if this isn't one of the most unusual and interesting AAR's (I mean games) that I have ever seen.




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Big B's Shipyard

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 266
RE: Goodbye, Arizona - 4/24/2008 11:24:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/10/43 to 5/17/43
 
Time is just crawling along as the Allies patiently try to await the opportune moment to strike....

If I had the CVs, I'd move now while Marcus Island is a level 2 airfield, level 1 port; and while the Allies still control Iloilo.  I think (and hope) that John's attention is focused on his "perimeter" (IE, his front lines that are closest to my bases).  It would be great if I could keep his focus there, and off those rear areas, so I'm trying to stir up things a bit.  But hang it all, this "false war" could last another three months....

CenPac:  Jap CVs including Taiho showed up near Midway (a sub spotted Taiho).  The Allied CVs sortied again, but refused to venture farther than P-38 LRCAP could cover.  The Japs didn't come close enough to trigger an engagement.  We're both playing chicken right now.  Three Seabee units are on Laysan, now, and it is 30% to a level one airfield and buidling quickly.  Jarvis Island, south of Palmyra, has four Seabee units and is 51% to level one.  As each of these become airfields, I feel sure that will get John's attention.  I'm also sending a seabee detachment to an island adjacent to Canton Island, to see if I can sneak them in start building right under John's nose.  The primary purpose of these activities is to give John things to worry about or mull over on his perimeter.

Australia: All quiet on the Aussie front.

Burma:  On the 17th, the Allies tried their first wholesale bombing effort against Rangoon.  Hundreds of fighters and bombers filled the skies and were met by more than 200 crack Jap fighters.  For the day, the Allies lost 149 aircraft (135 a2a) and the Japs 113 (70 a2a and 36 on the ground).  It will take awhile to win the battle for control of the air over Rangoon, but this was the first step.

India:  No sign of a Jap invasion fleet.  Darn.

China:  What gives?  I have the Jap 104th Division isolated at Kweiyang and my troops, well-rested and fully supplied, generally attack at 250:1 odds, yet suffer 5x or 10x casualties.  Nothing I do - including bombarding for several turns between attacks and bombing the Japs - works.  Based upon this, it seems like the best possible way to make a stand in China is to get your troops isolated and outnumbered so that they'll wreak havoc.  It's not that big a deal, because John has no way of extracting this unit or coming to its aid.  Eventually it will succumb to its dire situation, but right now it is giving me fits.

Vietnam:  I have 5000 AV assigned to SE Asia HQ on the Vietnam border, with another 2000 a few hexes away, awaiting sufficient political points to make the change.  At some point, when the time seems right, I'll invade Vietnam.  The time will be right when I need to create a crisis. That could be when Operation Red Planet begins, or it could be prior thereto to draw John's attention to another hotspot.  Hanoi has 60k troops, and I think another 30 or 40k are in Haiphong, but that shouldn't stand up to 7,000 AV fully prepped for Hanoi if my units are fully supplied (right now they aren't, possibly due to the Jap unit in Kweiyang messing up the best supply route).



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/24/2008 11:28:27 PM >

(in reply to Big B)
Post #: 267
RE: Goodbye, Arizona - 4/25/2008 1:00:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/18/43 to 5/21/43
 
CenPac:  The US carriers have returned to Pearl Harbor after the recent, brief sortie out past French Frigate Shoals.  Laysan Island is about 50% to a level one airfield.  To the south, Jarvis Island is 71% there and a fast transport convoy carrying some Seabees will land tonight at Sydney Island, two hexes to the south of Canton Island. 

Operation Red Planet:  Recent SigInt indicates the Japs have 149th IJA Base Force at Cebu and 16th Base Force at Davao; other reports estimate the Japs have 5 units on Marcus Island (that's not alot) including 4th Construction Batallion with 62nd Construction Batallion on transports headed that way.  So John seems to be working on Marcus - a disappointment, since I'd love for him to disregard it entirely, but not a surprise, because he's no dummy.  I wouldn't mind bringing on a general carrier engagement prior to implementing Red Planet (if that operation goes forward).  Planet Red would bring on such an engagement anyhow, and it might be better to bring it on earlier, without my invasion TFs at risk.  I would create a mock invasion force to be accompanied by my CVs, and try to incite the battle somewhere relatively close to an Allied base, where damaged ships could seek haven and where retirement by my ships might reach LRCAP fairly quickly.  If I prevailed in the engagement so that the Japs lost more CVs (and aircraft, and pilots) than the Allies, I could then refuel and rearm my undamaged carriers and their aircraft and set Planet Red in motion.  It's worth thinking about. 

Australia:  Zzzz.  I wonder if John is mystified by my sitting tight at Melbourne and Sydney.

Burma:  The Japs heavily reinforced Rangoon, bringing in tw3o additional divisions (48th and 31st) to join 19th.  The Allies have 175k troops with AV 5200; the Japs now have 150K with AV 3100.  At Moulmein, the Japs have 100k plus - I'm guesstimating the equivalent of 3 divisions - say 1500 to 2000 AV?  Across the river, my troops have AV 3600.  So I don't think John can succeed in attacking my positions at Rangoon or the hex to the north.  Three Chinese units marching SE from Taung Gyi are in the process of crossing the river - the first unit just did so - to face two tired Jap divisions.  The crossings will bloody the Chinese, but I think these Japs are in even worse shape.

China:  My troops at Kwieyang remain well-rested despite deliberate attacks every day, so I'll continue for now.  Each attack comes off at high odds like 150:1 or 250:1.  The Chinese still take more casualties than the Japs, but now it's like a 2:1 ratio.  Sixteen B-24s, about 50 B-25s, and about 110 fighter bombers hit the Japs every day, or every few days.  The reduction is going slowly, but it is going.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 268
Operation Green Planet Commences - 4/26/2008 8:51:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/21/43 to 5/25/43
 
Operation Green Planet:  There' s no such thing; this is just a misinformation campaign.  I'm hoping John will see the title and think I'm up to something.  He's just begun reconning islands south of Hawaii - first Palmyra and Christmas, and just this last turn Jarvis.  I think the fact that I have units at Jarvis will register as rather telling and hostile, so that he turns some attention that way.  In the meantime, by fast transport the Allies also dropped off some Seabees at Sydney Island (just south of Johnston) a few turns ago.  I'm doing my best to keep John thinking that this is where the Allies will strike.

Operation Blue Planet:  This is my "second choice" in the event I don't pursue my first.  I just received some useful SigInt - the Japs have 25,004 troops at Sapporo.  That's probably 7th Division, which begins the game there.  Even with 9 forts, that's a very manageable number.  So count that as a reason to consider Blue Planet more strongly.

Operation Red Planet:  Marcus Island remains a level 1 port/level 2 airfield.  SigInt showed two Jap base forces, one at Davao and the other at Cebu.  Both of these base forces can handle 30 aircraft. That information may be woefully incomplete, but it's a least some indication that the Philippines are not strongly garrisoned right now.  So at this moment I'm still hoping to spring Red Planet.

China:  The Chinese units at Kweiyang are making progress towards reducing the isolated Jap 104th Division.  Deliberate attacks each turn are now inflicting about 1:1 casuatlies.  Thus far John hasn't made any obvious efforts to assist or extract this unit, nor has he mentioned its predicament in his emails.  I wonder what he's thinking....

Burma:  Chinese units are moving east from Taung Gyi, driving the exhausted Japanese units that once garrisoned that city.  I have almost no hope that John would allow me to take the next city down the road (Pisanoluke?), but if he does, the Chinese will embark on a full-scale troop transport campaign.  I should know whether the city is strongly held in a week or two.  John has also strongly reinforced Rangoon.  Where there was once just 1 and 1/3 divisons, there are now 4 and 1/3 (16, 19, 31, 48 and 15c).  He now outnumbers me (195k to 175k), but I still have the AV edge (5200 to 4100).  I'm not that worried about losing a battle here, should that occur, because my troops would retreat toward Meiktila, and I have another 2600 AV just a hex north of Rangoon on that same road (guarding against the Japs crossing the river from Moulmein, which if successful would cut off my troops in Rangoon; but I don't think the Japs have enough troops in Moulmein to make this a serious threat).

Australia:  Zzzz.

US CVs:  A CVL is in Panama City awaiting reinforcements (3 CVEs will arrive in a few weeks) before moving to Pearl.  CV Enterprise (a new Essex class ship) arrives in San Fran in 10 days.  Once these five carriers arrive at Pearl, the US will have there 4 CVs, 4 CVLs, and 10 CVEs.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 269
Operation Green Planet Implemented - 4/28/2008 6:10:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/26/43 to 5/28/43
 
Operation Green Planet:  As noted in the previous post, this is a sham.  I'm just hoping my opponent see's the title of this AAR post and thinks the Allies have finally launched an offensive.  He's expecting one.

CenPac:  The Allies continue to work on airfields at Laysan, Jarvis, and Sydney Islands.  I think John just sighted the unit on Sydney (two hexes south of Canton Island).  This activity serves two purposes (I hope):  gives strong signals to the enemy that the Allies are prepping for major action here (we aren't) and, secondly, eventually the Allies may use these islands to provide LRCAP to Allied shipping, especially if Operations Planet Red or Planet Blue are scuttled (perish the thought!).  All available US CVs just left pearl Harbor on a NW heading.  As long as Jap ships don't show up in the meantime, the plan is to hit the airfield at Midway to offer further evidence of Allied aggression in this area.

Australia:  Zzzz.  When the Allies commence Planet Red or Planet Blue, they will finally move out of Sydney and Melbourne (or possibly before then if John weakens his garrison here).

Burma:  More Jap reinforcements arrive at Rangoon; now six + Jap divisions (16, 19, 21, 31, 48, 55 and 15c).  The Japs outnumber the Allies, but the Allies have a slight edge on AV (something like 5200 to 4900).  The Allies have at least 2600 AV a hex to the rear.  The appearance of all this power at Rangoon leads me to believe John decided against an invasion in my rear (if, indeed, he even considered such) and instead elected to battle on the front lines.  Early on in this campaign, I had some hopes of taking Rangoon; but if I can't take it, I can be satisfied as long as it draws John's full attention and plenty of Jap troops (that might be used elsewhere, like the Philippines....)  The Chinese troops continue their advance on Pisanoluke.  If they somehow manage to take that city, I'll transport in reinforcements by air.  I doubt that opporunity will arise, however.  I think John will make sure the city is well-fortified.

China:  The Chinese are now getting the upper hand at Kweiyang, the interior city where the Jap 104th Division has been isolated and under attack for weeks.  The Japs now generally take more casualties and I think the division will be eliminated in the not too-distant future.  The Chinese continue to prep for Hanoi so that a major offensive can begin during the summer, either slightly before or in conjunction with Red Planet or Blue Planet.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 270
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