RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/27/2008 6:45:11 PM

Canoerebel

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QBall, I've been mulling over a raid on the Home Islands. I know John's Maya/Furutaka combat TF is coming from Tokyo. I don't know what if anything he has at Osaka. When my CVs replenished at Tori Shima a couple of days ago, recon sighted a number of Jap TFs just off the coast - possibly ships fleeing exposed ports. Once Iwo is secure, I'll definately pick one port to raid - even if there's nothing in the port, the point will have been made - he'll realize that his HI ports are at risk.

I'll really begin to plan the next step after Iwo is secure. SigInt reveals at least part of Formosa is strongly held, but both the Okinawa airbases are still "small" and I haven't detected any major troop concentrations there. But Johh is smart, so that will soon change. There are plenty of potential targets right now, so he's got alot of things to consider, needs to move alot of troops from far away, and that's just what I had hoped for.

I am not anxious to hit heavily mined atolls anytime soon, and I much prefer expanding forward or laterally than to backfilling. I can create more consternation by pressing onward than I would gain by taking Marcus. If, and only if, I can't figure out a good plan to move forward, I might look to one of the central CenPac island groups - like Eniwetok.

(in reply to Q-Ball)

Post #: 391

Operation Silver Planet - 5/27/2008 8:57:33 PM

Canoerebel

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9/5/43

Iwo Jima: The Allies took the base after a 4:1 shock attack, the defenders losing 486/10 to 545/11/1. This is a big relief. I'm torn about whether to avoid the hex until the minesweepers can finish their job, or immediately begin landing troops. I compromised - a large supply TF and a large fuel TF will dock, as will the damaged ships, as will a few ships carrying crated SBDs. If those ships don't have trouble with the mines, the rest will come in tomorrow. I transferred in a 54-plane Hellcat squadron off an replenishment escort carrier. It's experience level is in the mid-50s, but it will bolster the CAP provided by the CVE TF in the hex. Iwo's port facilities were badly damaged by shore bombardment, but the airfield is in good shape.

This day saw 4 AKs, 2 DMs, and an LST go down. As soon as the damaged ships get to port and stabalize, I'll tally the ships lost in the campaign thus far. Up to now the Allied losses have been minimal (as have Jap losses in ships and aircraft). But the capture of Iwo Jima is a tremendous victory for the Allies. Operation Red Planet (revised) is a success to date.

Rangoon: The Japs lost more than 8,000 troops to an Allied deliberate attack. The surviving troops can't last more than another day or two.

Operation Silver Planet: 50th Indian Paratroops landed at Diamond Harbor a few days ago and I am air transporting them to Meiktila. Tomorrow, recon aircraft will take a look at some of the smaller Jap-held bases in Siam. If any are open, the paratroops will try an assault the following day. If they manage to take a base, the Allies will begin a massive airlift of some of the Chinese units recently returned from the move on Hanoi. John may have thought of this, so all the cities may be garrisoned, but if not this has potential to be a disruptive operation.

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Post #: 392

RE: Operation Silver Planet - 5/27/2008 9:14:47 PM

NormS3

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Many thanks for your entertaining AAR. I have been following nearly everyday, but was camping all weekend and just caught back up.

I was reading on your raid at Sumatra with the RN and your comment about just leaving the Japanese alone in Australia. If your planned liberation of Sumatra is not going to go off, perhaps you have entertained using those troops in an Inchon like landing in Australia?

I don't recall what your strength is in Australia, but surely your opponent is weak somewhere on the southern continent, perhaps you can flank him out of his line and start to recover some VPs.

Again fantastic job. I know it's been tough, but may your aggressive and innovative strike in the north central pacific bear fruit.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 393

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/27/2008 9:29:21 PM

Q-Ball

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll really begin to plan the next step after Iwo is secure. SigInt reveals at least part of Formosa is strongly held, but both the Okinawa airbases are still "small" and I haven't detected any major troop concentrations there. But Johh is smart, so that will soon change. There are plenty of potential targets right now, so he's got alot of things to consider, needs to move alot of troops from far away, and that's just what I had hoped for.

If Okinawa isn't very built up, (I think Naka starts as a size-4 AF, IIRC), I would go for Okinawa. That would be very risky, but if successful, would be deadly for Japan. You could ferry A/C in/out of China, and he would be completely cut off from SRA. If you took it, wow, what a comeback!

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Post #: 394

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/27/2008 9:36:28 PM

Kereguelen

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Hi,

very interesting AAR - following this for some time. If you don't mind, some comments about your invasion of Iwo and some technical aspects of invasions in general:

I noticed that it took you quite a long time to take Iwo. After looking at the composition of your Amphibious TF's you posted some time ago in this AAR - I can only say: no surprise.

The composition of your Invasion TF's was (sad to say) wholly inadequate and you were extremely lucky that your opponent did not respond to your move on Iwo in time (don't know why he did not react - there certainly was enough time for Japanese countermeasures). You would have faced a total desaster if you would've attacked an atoll because the assault faces were not properly loaded, simply said: too many troops on not enough ships. For atoll invasions I always use 30+ LST's for every division - or the equivalent of this in other small transports like 2000 capacity AP's - this is extreme and for islands like Iwo one can do with less, but you've loaded whole divisions on small TF's.

For any future invasions you need to change the ratio troops:ships.

And you should add more tank battalions and (if possible because they're a scarce commodity for the Allies) combat engineer regiments. Work wonders, don't need much cargo space and recover quite fast.

And you should seriously consider to ship in (land-based) fighter planes for CAP over newly conquered bases abord CVE's (they can fly in from the CVE's without being disabled). Works even better with Corsairs, of course. Anyway, it's not really a good idea to crate planes up if you need CAP over conquered bases.

Hope that my comments did not sound too harsh. The attack on Iwo was an excellent idea and it worked.

K

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 395

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/27/2008 11:03:52 PM

anarchyintheuk

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The composition of the tfs probably had more to do with his original (probable?) target of the PI and the relatively early date. Not nearly enough lsts to combat load 8 divs of inf in 9/43.

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Post #: 396

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/27/2008 11:19:52 PM

Canoerebel

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Anarchy is right - this was originally slated as an invasion of Luzon. Therefore, the dynamics of getting ashore were much different than for an atoll or small island attack. Luzon is so remote from Allied-held territory that I had to bring everything with me as though I was establishing a colony on Mars, because the invasion force was going to have to survive on it's own for many months. Getting ashore wasn't going to be a problem, staying there was. I also had to bring as much supply as I could, hence scores of AKs were devoted to that chore (and TKs to carrying fuel).

As for aircraft, I think we have a house rule prohibiting basing Corsairs on carriers until 1944, so I had to crate them.

But you're right. Had the Japanese reacted swiftly, sending carriers and combat ships against the invasion force, and sending as many reinforcements as possible, I think this would have ended disastrously for the Allies. The size of the Allied CV force probably acted as a deterrent, and if so I'm fortunate.

(in reply to anarchyintheuk)

Post #: 397

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/27/2008 11:20:52 PM

onnel

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Add me to the list of fans. Just finished reading through the whole thread and it was delightful!

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Post #: 398

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/28/2008 6:26:37 AM

Q-Ball

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Well, maybe LSTs can come in v.2. Because Canoerebel is going to have to unload everything, sail home, and sail back with new convoys of stuff. (Plus empties to carry some of the troops on Iwo, or maybe they carry MORE supplies for Iwo, which will probably become a massive depot). Either way, it's probably 30 days at least to the next invasion.

Plenty of time for a port raid though........

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Post #: 399

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/28/2008 9:56:51 PM

Canoerebel

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9/6/43 and 9/7/43

Operation Silver Planet: The surprise paratroop assault into Siam commenced. A few days ago, 50th Indian Paratroops arrived in Diamond Harbor via transport from Aden. From there, Dakotas ferried part of the regiment to Meiktila. On the 6th, three recon squadrons checked out small bases in the interior of Siam and confirmed that each was empty. On the 7th, a small detachment of the paratroops captured the base at Siem Reap. Tomorrow, another detachment will take a stab at the base to the south. Meantime, three Dakota squadrons transferred to Lungchow and will begin air transporting a Chinese unit into Siem Reap. This operation has potential - the Allies can move alot of Chinese troops (heavy on manpower, light on equipment). John will have to use LRCAP to stop my transports. At the least, the prospect of a large Chinese army operating in Siam should worry him.

Iwo Jima: Port and airfield are fully repaired and engineers have begun work (the airfield is currently a 4 and can be built to 6, and the port is currently a 1 and can be built to 4). The airfield is within range of PBY Liberators from Midway, so I brought in two 12-plane squadrons. Three transports carrying a total of 72 Corsairs will dock tonight. Unbelievably, I somehow left an MLE out of this massive, 650-ship invasion force. There's no way I would have overlooked that...but I did. So the MLE at Midway will join the reinforcements that are slated to move to Iwo in a week or two. The Midway MLE will be replaced by the one currently at Palmyra.

I moved the carrier TF to a point between Iwo and Tori Shima and had intended to make a raid on the Home Island tomorrow, but noticed that many of my carrier Hellcat squadrons are 25-40% disabled right now. I noticed this when the CV TFs were attacked by LBA from Tokyo (12 Sallys, 7 Helens, and 12 Zeros went down in flames and none got through the CAP). I have no idea why so many fighters need repairs - the Hellcats on the CVEs, which are docked at Iwo, are 100% ready. So I'll dock the fleet carriers at Iwo, as soon as the mines are cleared, which could take some time, and give the mechanics a chance to get everything ready to go.

On the 6th, AKs suffered 12 more mine hits, APs 2, and an ML 1. No ships hit mines on the 7th, but the minesweepers are still hard at work. Over these two days, 5 more AKs went under, 2 more APs, and one MSW. There are still about five ships in danger of sinking.

Rangoon: The last of the Jap defenders were wiped out on the 7th. I'll move a few troops one hex north to give the appearance of a build-up for an attack on Moulmein, but the real emphasis right now will be on Operation Silver Planet.

Operation Lunar Eclipse: This will be the invasion of Okinawa, which may occur in a month or so. SigInt revealed 116th Base Force is at Kadina.

(in reply to Q-Ball)

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/29/2008 12:06:10 AM

Big B

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Just an FYI.,

You don't need house rules prohibiting Corsairs from carriers in the B-Mod, because the corsair which you get in 1943 is not carrier capable in this mod.

The only Corsairs that are carrier capable is the USN variant that comes late in 1944 (or is it early 1945...I'm at work right now and don't have access to the DB)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
...
As for aircraft, I think we have a house rule prohibiting basing Corsairs on carriers until 1944, so I had to crate them.
...

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/29/2008 6:20:13 PM

Andav

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Hey Canoerebel ... Just a lurker dropping by to say I have been enjoying this AAR for a while now. Keep up the fine work!

Walter

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 1:08:56 AM

Canoerebel

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9/8/43 to 9/10/43

Nothing major has occurred over this period, but still alot going on.

Subs near Iwo: It seems that John has sent every sub he has to the waters around Iwo Jima and Tori Shima. Here's some of the sightings and action: RO-34 took four depth charges on the 4th; RO-60 put a torpedo in AO Cimarron (later scuttled) and went under after taking 8 depth charge hits; I-160 put 3 TT into an AK, which went down, and took three depth charges; I-22 tooks some hits; I-123 took 18 hits and went down; RO-33 put a TT into TK Papoose and 3 TT into an LCI, which went under; I-171 sank an LCI; I-155 took several hits from patrolling aircraft. I've got several ASW TFs working the area, but I'm worried about the possibility of a sub getting a lucky shot against one of my carriers.

Jap Ships: S-44 took a shot at Yamato at Pagan, just SE of Iwo Jima, but missed. Where Yamato is, I suspect there the KB be. John could be marshalling his forces for an all out assault.

Iwo Jima: The minefield seems to have been minimized or eradicated. Over this period, there were no further hits, but an AK and a DM went down from previous damage. I have about half my transports docked and unloading (the rest are cruising zig-zags offshore under carrier protection). To this point, I've had one big combat TF at Iwo (4 slow BBs, a CA, several CLs). John has had plenty of time to recon this force and plan accordingly, so tonight I'm sending in reinforcements - the combat fleet that the carriers had been following will dock at Iwo. This force includes three fast BBs, CA Astorie, and a number of CLs and DDs. Henceforth, the carriers will follow the zig-zagging transports offshore. The ground troops took a few days off to rest, but will resume attacking the defenders tomorrow.

Red Planet (Original): SigInt revealed 53rd Divsion is at Legaspi. I think John had figured out my designs on Luzon and had that island garrisoned much more strongly than I had bargained for. I am very glad I went for Iwo instead.

Silver Planet: John has reacted strongly to the paratroop assault and capture of Siem Reap in Siam. He has enough troops in the area that he can overwhelm the defenders, so I think I'll cancel those plans I had to air transport in vast numbers of troops. I'll move in enough that he has to work to take the base, but that's about it.

Australia: SigInt reveals the 18th Division is at Kalgoorlie. So John still has at least four divisions in Australia.

Situation: The more I look at the map and my position at Iwo Jima, the better situated the Allies appear to be. Iwo isn't that far from Midway, so that it isn't a logistical nightmare to move to and from these two bases; yet Iwo is far enough from Japanese bases that John's LBA shouldn't be a big factor (so my ships won't be overwhelmed by a combination of carrier-based and LBA). I have a ton of supplies unloaded already, my troops are prepping for the future, and there are plenty of targets that aren't that far off. There is no question that my guys intend to move forward rather than backward (IE, I won't be making major moves to take islands to my rear).

Thanks: Thanks to all of you who have posted encouraging comments and well-meant advice.

(in reply to Andav)

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 2:23:40 AM

Mistmatz

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Canoerebel, I understand that the allies want to press on forward and use the momentum but I'd be doing this from an established stronghold _including_ a defendable supply path.

Assume there is a carrier battle aoon and the japs win. How can you support Iwo and defend the supply lines in such a case? I think it's clear that Japan will want to use its carriers as long as they still have some teeth, the longer Japan waits the carriers will be more and more uselss. So I'd prepar for that big battle and I'd try to prepare to fight it under unvafourable circumstances because this is what the japanese player will try to achieve.

Even if you'd loose such a CV battle you can go on with the war but it's so much harder without that supply line.

Just my two cents.

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 2:43:35 AM

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quote:

Jap Ships: S-44 took a shot at Yamato at Pagan, just SE of Iwo Jima, but missed. Where Yamato is, I suspect there the KB be. John could be marshalling his forces for an all out assault.

I think you're right.

If KB is that close and hasn't already attacked, he's almost certainly waiting for something.

You were trying to force a battle with KB earlier.

Perhaps it's time to force the battle you were looking for earlier before what ever he's waiting for comes to fruition.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 405

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 3:50:05 AM

Canoerebel

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Hmmm, an interesting situation.

As long as the Allies have CV superiority (due to Hellcats), the Japs cannot retake Iwo Jima. The island is occupied by 8 divisions, CD, artillery, tanks, etc. and all digging in. The Allies have already landed 130,000 supplies with another 270,000 to be unloaded.

And Iwo is situated to cause maximum discomfort to the Japs, as Allied subs, LBA, and CVs can make quick raids against places like Japan, Formosa, into the Philippine Sea, and the major island chains to the east. Pagan is certainly withint quick strike range, but there were no signs of enemy ships there the turn after my sub took a shot at BB Yamato. The absence of Yamato, and the possibility John might be striking Iwo, is what prompted me to send the second combat TF to Iwo.

Time works against John as far as force parity is concerned, but works against me in that the game is getting along now. But I believe I'm better served by remaining close to my bastion for a time, waiting to see if John makes a big move (and hopefully makes some mistakes).

I'm content to dig in for now, probing now and then in brief "burst" missions. I won't undertake any major invasions for awhile to allow time to strengthen my position at Iwo (and Chichi and Tori), and to return most of the way to Midway to meet with the next convoy (which will be escorted at first by CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, and a CVE).

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 9:14:42 AM

castor troy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hmmm, an interesting situation.

As long as the Allies have CV superiority (due to Hellcats), the Japs cannot retake Iwo Jima.� The island is occupied by 8 divisions, CD, artillery, tanks, etc. and all digging in.� The Allies have already landed 130,000 supplies with another 270,000 to be unloaded.�

And Iwo is situated to cause maximum discomfort to the Japs, as Allied subs, LBA, and CVs can make quick raids against places like Japan, Formosa, into the Philippine Sea, and the major island chains to the east.�Pagan is certainly withint quick strike range, but there were no signs of enemy ships there the turn after my sub took a shot at�BB Yamato.� The absence of Yamato, and the possibility John might be striking Iwo, is what prompted me to send the second combat TF to Iwo.

Time works against John as far as force parity is concerned, but works against me in that the game is getting along now.� But I believe I'm better served by remaining close to my bastion for a time, waiting to see if John makes a big move (and hopefully makes some mistakes).

I'm content to dig in for now, probing now and then in brief "burst" missions.� I won't undertake any major invasions for awhile to allow time to strengthen my position at Iwo (and Chichi and Tori), and to return most of the way to Midway to meet with the next convoy (which will be escorted at first by CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, and a CVE).

hehe, even if the Allied would NOT have Hellcats, the Japanese couldn�t take back Iwo when you have 8 divs there.

do you have torp bombers on Iwo? Lots of them? Don�t know if there are any bombers that can lug a torp out to five hexes in BigB mod but if so, those would be highly recommended as the enemy will stay 4 or 5 hexes off Iwo to go into position for an attack, no matter if a CV TF, surface combat or bombardment TF. And as we all know, bombs just bounce off the major targets and if they hit and penetrate, they tend not to be ship killers.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 5/30/2008 9:18:25 AM >

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 4:23:49 PM

Q-Ball

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I agreee with previous reader, the sighting of Yamato is likely very key. Either Combined Fleet is there, or is being assembled there. Yamato would not be at Pagan for any reason other than she is preparing to attack you at Iwo. John knows what you have, so he wouldn't attack with much less than everything. The only other possible explanation is that he expects you to attack the Marianas, but if that's the case, she would likely be sitting at Guam or similar, not Pagan.

I also agree with Castor: 8 divisions cannot be defeated on Iwo, even if your CV's are. Even if you have to withdraw the fleet, that island will be held.

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 5:14:28 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I agreee with previous reader, the sighting of Yamato is likely very key. Either Combined Fleet is there, or is being assembled there. Yamato would not be at Pagan for any reason other than she is preparing to attack you at Iwo. John knows what you have, so he wouldn't attack with much less than everything. The only other possible explanation is that he expects you to attack the Marianas, but if that's the case, she would likely be sitting at Guam or similar, not Pagan.

That's what I'm thinking.

John is probably getting together everything that can float for a single, massive blow.

A carrier raid down in that direction might provide the chance to destroy a portion of the Combined Fleet before John has all his forces assembled.

quote:

I also agree with Castor: 8 divisions cannot be defeated on Iwo, even if your CV's are. Even if you have to withdraw the fleet, that island will be held.

I agree. Iwo Jima is safe no matter how the naval battle turns out.

John might be able to land troops, but he won't be able to take it.

I can't imagine that John has enough force available to defeat eight well supplied allied divisions.

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 6:24:02 PM

Nemo121

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The most viable course of action right now is NOT for Japan to mount an amphibious invasion of Iwo Jima. It just needs to interdict the supply lines, close the airfield ( and keep it closed ) and then bomb the supply base to nothingness. 8 Division in impregnable positions on an atoll with no bullets and no transport off the atoll are as useless as if every soldier in them were dead.

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 8:03:46 PM

Q-Ball

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Nemo, I would agree, that's the proper strategy. He has to close the airbase, and cut it off. Dan brought a pile of supplies though, I don't think John can cut if off long enough for them to run out. The best he can probably do is to damage/shut down the airstrip, so that Dan can't use it as a forward base without massive CV support.

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 8:07:48 PM

Mistmatz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
...

I also agree with Castor: 8 divisions cannot be defeated on Iwo, even if your CV's are. Even if you have to withdraw the fleet, that island will be held.

Iwo is not need to be held, Iwo needs to be a staging point and a safe haven for aircraft, vessels and combat troops alike.

If the allies are pressed hard and just hold Iwo the war is basically lost or at least not to be won in time. Iwo needs to play the most active role for the next years in order to beat the rising sun.

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 8:09:30 PM

pat.casey

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If the allies landed a mass of high end fighters though (say corsairs and thuds), is it plausible to break the airbase via airstrikes alone? Seems like 200 corsairs on CAP would eat any conceivable strike. So the Japanese would need to to knock the base down with a massive bombardment first, then keep it suppressed with air power from that point on.

Seems like the allies can counter that though just by parking a sizable SAG group and a mass of PT boats on IWO. Even if the IJN fights their way through the SAG group, they'll be short on ops points and the bombardment isn't going to be all that effective.

Point being I suppose, that I'm not seeing how to get the airfield closed w/o the allies doing you a willing favor.

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 8:21:48 PM

Q-Ball

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Per Castor's earlier point, he can bombard it. Dan needs a torpedo bomber that can carry torps out to 5 hexes; at that point, John can only bombard it with CA's. 200 fighters would knock anything down, but that would preclude having anything else.

I don't know Allied A/C ranges in Big-B. Can the Beaufort carry a torp that far?

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 8:32:34 PM

castor troy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

The most viable course of action right now is NOT for Japan to mount an amphibious invasion of Iwo Jima. It just needs to interdict the supply lines, close the airfield ( and keep it closed ) and then bomb the supply base to nothingness. 8 Division in impregnable positions on an atoll with no bullets and no transport off the atoll are as useless as if every soldier in them were dead.

I would have 500+ engineers and probably 200 eng vehicles (= another 800 engineers) on the island (which is an ISLAND not an atoll btw) and this would make it impossible to close the airfield. Lots of flak (from base forces, and dedicated AA units) and 80 Corsairs on Cap in the air every day and all the Japanese can do is kill themselve over the island. This is how the game goes, every other speculation is nice, but that�s not possible in the game.

And I do expect the Allied to have such a force I described on the island.

The best thing for the Japanese is to stay AWAY from the island as this base will grow more and more dangerous every turn.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 5/30/2008 8:34:37 PM >

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 9:10:40 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

The most viable course of action right now is NOT for Japan to mount an amphibious invasion of Iwo Jima. It just needs to interdict the supply lines, close the airfield ( and keep it closed ) and then bomb the supply base to nothingness. 8 Division in impregnable positions on an atoll with no bullets and no transport off the atoll are as useless as if every soldier in them were dead.

I agree.

I believe John is preparing a single massive blow aimed at forcing the withdrawal of Canoerebel's carrier forces so he can isolate Iwo Jima and pound it to smithereens.

I think ceding the initiative to John, allowing him time to get his forces organized for such a blow, letting him launch it when he's ready and only reacting to it when it comes is something of a mistake.

Considering John's style of play as has been related in this AAR, odds are low that John had all the forces required for such an attack already concentrated.

That would explain the seeming lack-luster response to the Iwo Jima invasion on John's part.

He needs to get the Combined Fleet concentrated.

As Canoerebel noted when his sub attacked Yamato, the probability that John's concentration point has been identified is high.

As John's concentration point has likely been identified, and as it's also likely that it's currently manned by only a portion of the Combined Fleet, it seems to me that an possible opportunity has been presented to destroy the Combined Fleet piecemeal, before all of John's forces are in position.

Such an attack would have the added benefit of helping to retain the initiative that was gained with the Iwo Jima invasion.

(in reply to Nemo121)

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 9:19:24 PM

Nemo121

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Canoerebel has failed to consider several important factors ( both players have during this operation albeit in different aspects of the operation ). Principal among these is that while he has something like 400,000 tons of supplies available the BASE cannot store such a huge amount of supplies. Remember the spoilage rules? I certainly do and they will apply to ruinous effect here.

Castor Troy, assume that that island can hold a maximum of 50,000 tons of supply without spoilage ( I am unsure how big the port is but the airfield is only Size 4 ) and then assume he bombs the base. You will repair it at the cost of 2,600 tons of supply PER DAY. Sure he'd need to hit it really hard every day BUT once he hits it hard once and closes it the serviceability of your fighters will fall such that even if you keep the field open it won't be defended by nearly the CAP you'd imagine. I'm not sure about John but trust me when I say that I could certainly close this base and make those 1300 engineers a liability for you rather than an asset.

In any case this is an interesting situation but I think too many people are making assumptions without actually examining the exingent, objective realities of the underlying situation. When you do that things which were strong can still be very strong but might have surprising weaknesses.

Canoerebel, I'm not seeking to criticise unnecessarily. I am simply seeking to interject a bit of objective analysis and point out some issues which I feel you may have overlooked. If you prefer me not to post then I will happily cease doing so.

(in reply to DW)

Post #: 417

RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 9:34:59 PM

castor troy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Canoerebel has failed to consider several important factors ( both players have during this operation albeit in different aspects of the operation ). Principal among these is that while he has something like 400,000 tons of supplies available the BASE cannot store such a huge amount of supplies. Remember the spoilage rules? I certainly do and they will apply to ruinous effect here.

Castor Troy, assume that that island can hold a maximum of 50,000 tons of supply without spoilage ( I am unsure how big the port is but the airfield is only Size 4 ) and then assume he bombs the base. You will repair it at the cost of 2,600 tons of supply PER DAY. Sure he'd need to hit it really hard every day BUT once he hits it hard once and closes it the serviceability of your fighters will fall such that even if you keep the field open it won't be defended by nearly the CAP you'd imagine. I'm not sure about John but trust me when I say that I could certainly close this base and make those 1300 engineers a liability for you rather than an asset.

In any case this is an interesting situation but I think too many people are making assumptions without actually examining the exingent, objective realities of the underlying situation. When you do that things which were strong can still be very strong but might have surprising weaknesses.

Canoerebel, I'm not seeking to criticise unnecessarily. I am simply seeking to interject a bit of objective analysis and point out some issues which I feel you may have overlooked. If you prefer me not to post then I will happily cease doing so.

While your posts are highly interesting to read, they are often more about reality than what�s happening in the game. You mention spoilage... spoilage is a JOKE, there won�t be any spoilage at Iwo. Don�t know what size it is at the moment, but if it�s already combined port and airfield a level 4 or 5 then there�s 0 spoilage!!! If it�s smaller, then the spoilage isn�t worth mentioning either. As you mention that the airfield is already size 4, then I guess port is 1 or two, means 5 or 6 combined size, spoilage is minimal if he has landed 100.000 supply.

And while I don�t know how much supply Canoerebel has brought with him, 40.000 seems a bit low. I would store 150.000 supply there or even more and spoilage wouldn�t be a problem because I would build up the base to max size in no time with my 1000+ engineers. And now the big hammer for you: REPAIRING THE AIRFIELD DOES NOT USE UP A SINGLE POINT OF SUPPLY!!!

I couldn�t believe it myself but I was sure about that already for a loong time and just recently AndyMac gave the confirmation that repairs don�t need a single supply point. Only base BUILDING needs supply.

But we totally agree in that it�s a very interesting situation at the moment.

Still, if I would be the Japanese, I would stay away from this base, even if that would mean big trouble. Losing half of my Navy would mean more trouble as there would be nothing to stop an ivasion of the Philipines thaen.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 5/30/2008 9:36:59 PM >

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 9:55:49 PM

Kereguelen

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Castor's statement is absolutely correct.

If combined base-size is 5, up to 80,000 supplies are not subject to spoilage (if 6 = 113,000; if 7 = 152,000), thus spoilage should be no real problem here.

And base repairs do (indeed) not cost any supplies (only construction needs supplies).

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes - 5/30/2008 10:05:25 PM

castor troy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kereguelen

Castor's statement is absolutely correct.

If combined base-size is 5, up to 80,000 supplies are not subject to spoilage (if 6 = 113,000; if 7 = 152,000), thus spoilage should be no real problem here.

And base repairs do (indeed) not cost any supplies (only construction needs supplies).

thanks! I will remember this post, as finally someone is of the same oppinion I am. A rare occasion!