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RE: Wild Round! So What Happened?

 
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RE: Wild Round! So What Happened? - 7/11/2008 7:11:13 PM   
FeurerKrieg


Posts: 3397
Joined: 6/15/2005
From: Denver, CO
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You guys sure talk a lot in your emails. I don't mention anything gamewise except in the past tense, and even then, usually about things that happened weeks before.

Interesting to see the different styles.

_____________________________


Upper portion used with permission of www.subart.net, copyright John Meeks

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 571
RE: Wild Round! So What Happened? - 7/11/2008 7:18:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: sjohnson

Hi there,

First time posting in your AAR but, as I am sure many others are, I have been following your game for a while.  I like the go for broke strategy and you seem to have caught John off guard in some areas.  Strategically you have surprised him, yet, why Hakodate/Sapporo?  It would be a nice coup-de-main, but, hard to reinforce and hold.

It seems to me that if Sakhalin is poorly guarded then why not reinforce this move, if not throw everything at it as well as the other Kurile islands that look like they may be up for grabs.

This would:
1) secure one flank of your forces (the N/NW) with russian territory
2) give you a good LOC back to the west coast through the aleutians, alaska, and canadian coast - all of which can base airpower for scouting and convoy cover
3)  provide you sufficient bases (you can build up the lvl 0 aflds to lvl 3 which is good enough for fighters and light attack craft) for airpower and heavies in Sakhalin to bomb Japan
4)  provide you with good sub bases in the Japanese home islands with little risk - meaning most of your damaged subs will have a good chance of makiing it to a port; and note the allied sub force builds up quickly in numbers in mid 44 onwards
5)  forces John to honor the threat of additional invasions and disperse airpower, etc. to Northern Japan
6)  allows you to redeploy your carriers back to Iwo/CPac regions and provide a continual threat with multiple areas to strike

Lastly on a strategic side, if he has really pulled as many troops out of China as it appears and your Burma forces continue to advance - as opposed to advancing down malaya and even into Indochina and slogging out against fort lines in malaria terrain - why not use air transport assets and start shifting supply and forces into China for a drive to the coast somewhere - getting lvl 5 airbases within range of Formosa giving you the ability to interdict shipping skirting the coast into south-west Japan.


Yes, this is pretty much what I am doing. If I can get good bases on Sakhalin Island (and in the Aleutians would be nice too), it will be a big victory as long as my carrier survive in enough numbers to ensure supply convoys can make it here in the future.

Hokkaido was my target because I knew it was lightly defended and had big air bases. Had things gone smoothly, I would already have a big base at Hakodate, with two or three more to follow in short order. My expierence is that by late '43 and into '44 Jap aircraft cannot handle Allied aircraft in big numbers, so there was no way John could retake the island. Shoot, I had 9 Division plus other troops!

But I wasn't totally ignoring the nearby bases. I had smaller units prepped for one of the Kuriles, Toyohara, and one other base that escapes me at the moment.

As for a land war in Asia, no thanks! Here's why. At the moment, the Royal Navy rules the Indian Ocean (mainly because the Jap carriers are all in the Pacific - at least I think that's the case). This permits me to move rapidly - I have a mobile force. That, combined with plentiful airbases close by, permits the Allies to move forward quickly while keeping the ships under LRCAP from good bases. I want to take advantage of my mobility and keep John on his heals here.

(in reply to sjohnson)
Post #: 572
RE: Wild Round! So What Happened? - 7/11/2008 7:20:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Actually, we seldom talk. I've had to ask John to not refer to events in his emails, because I would rather find out by watching a combat replay. And I have never provided details to him until now. We've just reached such a critical point of the game, and things are so weird, that we're each laughing and sweating like crazy, and really enjoying the competition.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

You guys sure talk a lot in your emails. I don't mention anything gamewise except in the past tense, and even then, usually about things that happened weeks before.

Interesting to see the different styles.


(in reply to FeurerKrieg)
Post #: 573
RE: Wild Round! So What Happened? - 7/11/2008 8:22:02 PM   
Andav

 

Posts: 474
Joined: 5/8/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

... We've just reached such a critical point of the game, and things are so weird, that we're each laughing and sweating like crazy, and really enjoying the competition.




Hey Canoerebel,

This is one of the reasons I like this AAR and its companion. Both of you are having a lot of fun and seem to realize this is a game and not life or death. I PBEM with one of my best friends (since UV days). A large part of the fun of the game is talking in generalities about what is going on and trash talking about things which are happening.

Keep having fun and keep us posted on what happens!

Walter

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 574
RE: Wild Round! So What Happened? - 7/12/2008 3:28:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
12/9/43
 
1.  John indeed sent his 7th Divsion to Hakodate (a good move, in my opinion) and it prevented my troops from taking this base, though it was closer than I might have expected since 7th Division isn't prepped for the base while my troops are.  I just missed a 1:1, and the attack cost the Japs 763/25 to 1075/44. 
 
2.  The Allies landed at Sapporo, Shikuka, Toyahara, and Adak Island today.  It was almost like this was a well-orchestrated plan instead of a plan spiraling out of control.

3.  Adak is unoccupied, so the Allies ought to take it tomorrow and a base force and engineers are close behind.  This should give the Allies a decent start in this area, and a place to retire towards if my carriers vacate the Hokkaido vicinity. The forces aiming for Kiska, which I believe is unoccupied, are running a few days behinds, but I'm proceeding.  Jap bombers from Amchitka and John's other base in the Aluetians sortied in fairly small numbers, doing light to moderate damage to a handful of transports.

4.  With 7th Division removed to Hakodate, Sapporo is very weakly garrisoned.  Most of 3rd Marines.  The Allies should take this hex tomorrow.  As a result, I think John vacated his aircraft, which is a help.  But in a big irony, my aviation regiment is at Hakodate because that is the base I thought I would take.  I don't have another BF on Hokkaido (the others are on transports further north).  I'll try to get a base force here if I take Sapporo tomorrow.

5.  Troops began landing at the two Jap bases on the long island to the north (it's name escapes me again; Shikoku or Sikhalin).  Both are lightly held, but in Arctic weather only a scattering of troops landed this first day.  Many more will unload tomorrow, assuming the transports aren't sunk by bombers or combat ships.  I should be able to take one or both of these bases in two days.

6.  The Allied CVs were stationed to the far north (near the Russian base of Okha) and weren't involved in any action (letting the transports get clobbered, which is not gallant, but necessary if I'm going to continue the game).  The CVs pulled Hellcats from a single replenishment CVE, so now my CVE TF has 250 Hellcats; not an overwhelming force, but far better than the 150 worn out Hellcats I had three days ago (and about 1/3rd of them were inoperational, but now all are in working order).  I have three other CVEs with light/moderate damage just to the South.

7.  My carriers will head south, taking station about four hexes east of the southern tip of that long island.  The KB is just south of the Kuriles and appears to be on a NW heading, possibly on a mission to help finish off the beleagured Allied transports around Hokkaido.  Weather forecast in the Arctic is blizzard (where my carriers are); weather forecast in the North Pacific is thunderstorms (where the KB is).  The two carrier forces could be in close proximity tomorrow.

8.  Jap LBA chewed up Allied transports, especially at Hakodate (these were badly damaged ships hoping to unload what they could) and Sapporo, with less massive strikes on some ships around that there long island and some strikes elsewhere.  The KB hit an AO TF hard and hit a few scattered and damaged merchant ships.

9.  John finally sent in some combat ships - the one sent in at Sapporo tangled with the Allied combat TF there, with little fighting done by either side.  The Jap combat TF at Hakodate applied the coup-de-grace to many merchant vessels.

10.  The roster of Allied merchant ships sunk rose dramatically today and it's nearing the point where there won't be many targets left.  It would have been worth it without question if the Allies took and could hold big bases on Hokkaido.  I could spend the rest of the war using Hokkaido as a big bombing base and never doing another big invasion, and I think I would still draw even in the game.  All I would need were enough transports to bring supplies, and goodness knows the Allies get enough transports as the game goes on.

11.  The Allies are ashore on Hokkaido and should take Sapporo, but it looks like there aren't enough troops to get Hakodate.  I can probably detail enough troops to seize Ashigara (the inland base, unoccupied) and Wakkanai (lightly held), but I do not have enough troops to withstand a major Jap counterattack when John brings in reinforcements.  If I had big airfields up and running with many aircraft, I could prevent or discourage Jap reinforcement efforts, but I don't.  There is a slim chance I can still accomplish that if I keep my CVs in the area and if they can draw replacement strike aircraft at one of them thar long island ports.  That's a pretty big if, though.

12.  Holding one or both of them thar long island bases could be important if it permits me to renew my carriers.  Also, I have crated Dakotas.  I could unload them and then air transport base force personnel into Sapporo and Ashigara.  That sounds a bit like a pipe-dream at the moment, but I'll keep my options open.

13.  If tomorrow turns sour, I will probably withdraw my carriers and try to get what I can out of there.  My losses will have been massive - not only transports, but men.  I will have lost yet another Marine division.  I am not positive I could recover from such an awful setback even if my carriers survive, but I would make that evaluation then.

14.  If tomorrow isn't totally sour (meaning:  my CVs survive, 3rd Marines take Sapporo, and I'm in a position to take one or both of them thar long island bases), I may continue to try to make something of all this.

15.  There were originally 9 divisions heading to Hokkaido, but not all of them are there, so I may be able to salvage some.  Most of one division somehow ended up in a TF that was heading to Midway from Iwo.  By the time I realized it was with the wrong group, it was too late to catch up, so I sent it back to Iwo (so I'll have most of three divisions there).  A second division is landing at Adak Island.  A few other divisions are still on transports near or at that thar long island.

16.  On the first day of the battle, when John wiped out my carrier-based air, the battle was lost.  John should have then commited his combat ships to hit the invasion beaches.  He also thought I was retiring, so kept his carriers on station SE of Hokkaido, hoping to intercept my fleeing carriers.  But when he realized I wasn't fleeing, he should have come after my CVs immediately.  Now that I have 250 operational Hellcats, there's a chance my carriers can survive.  So I went from about 10% chance of success up to about 40% (had 7th Division been one day slower on the march to Hakodate, that base would now be mine and I would also have Sapporo in hand tomorrow).  Now I'd rate my chances of success at about 20-25%.

17.  If I lose Hokkaido and that thar long island, but save my carriers and hold the Aleutian outposts, I might carry on the battle.

18.  Far to the south, John seems to be sending a big combat TF from Sabang toward Port Blair.  I'm pulling out my transports.  I have a big combat TF and a small one there, and three carrier TFs about to take position between Port Blair and Sabang.  So I hope to get in a good lick here.  My carriers CAP is augmented by P-38Js based at Port Blair.

Onward.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/12/2008 3:34:45 PM >

(in reply to Andav)
Post #: 575
RE: Wild Round! So What Happened? - 7/12/2008 6:00:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I've had some chance to mull things over, and I'm actually optimistic at the moment.  If the Allies take Sapporo, they should be able to seize Ashigara (unoccupied), which is an inland airbase.  I should also have at least one good base on Sikhalin Island.  But the key is my CVs remaining a viable unit and powerful force.  These three requirements are certainly possible.

I've run two other major invasions in this game, one of which became a disaster, the other an overwhelming success.  This one is in between the two.

I invaded Wotje a year ago.  I got ashore and took the base with good units, but I didn't have any other bases nearby and could not withstand the overwhelming presence of the Jap navy and airforce.

Iwo Jima was a tremendous success.  Keys were:  having Tori Shima and Chichi Jima, though small, to act as a buffers; the fact that there weren't nearby Jap bases to pummel me; and my CVs remained viable.

In the Hokkaido invasion, I will have the supporting bases (Sikhalin Island), should be able to establish air bases on Hokkaido, and my CVs are available (for now).  But I am very close to powerful Jap airfields, and the IJN is there.

So the Hokkaido operation falls in between the Wotje fiasco and the Iwo triumph.  Can I nudge things towards success, or can John shove them towards failure?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 576
RE: Wild Round! So What Happened? - 7/12/2008 8:33:29 PM   
VSWG


Posts: 3432
Joined: 5/31/2006
From: Germany
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've had some chance to mull things over, and I'm actually optimistic at the moment.  If the Allies take Sapporo, they should be able to seize Ashigara (unoccupied), which is an inland airbase.

Ashigara will be a great base for your air force since it can't be closed by naval bombardments, but you will depend on the AI to keep it supplied from a port base. It will be very important how many supplies you will capture in Sapporo, and if you are able to keep it supplied in the long run.

Good luck!


_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 577
Winning Carrier Battle Without Strike Aircraft - 7/12/2008 10:20:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
12/10/43
 
Gentlemen, I thought today would be the critical day for the Hokkaido invasion and thought there was a fair chance that is was now that I was most likely to lose a carrier battle.  When I received this email from John along with the combat report, I was disheartened:  "Wow.  Another crazy round.  Alotta good for the Japanese but the Allies get a few serious licks in too..."  That is pure propaganda, because this was one of the three best days of the war for the Allies, and if things go right from here then today will have been the turning point of the war.

Carrier Battle:  The American and Japanese carrier fleets clashed near the Kuriles.  The Americans had their arm's tied behind their backs, because they had essentially no strike aircraft. But the Hellcats handled everything that came their way, and this battle was basically a mirror image of the first day when the Japs wiped out so many Allied aircraft.  There was one big strike and a handful of small ones.  The Japs lost 494 aircraft (22 Tojo, 14 Tony, 151 Zeke, 162 Zero, 64 Judy, 55 Kate, 19 Jill, 5 Helen, and 1 Sally) in action against the American fleet.  The Allies lost 150 Hellcats, plus 3 TBFs in a feable attack against the Japs.  A few blows were struck:  CV Unryo took a TT from a gallant TBF; the Japs put 3 bombs on the already lightly damaged CV Franklin, one on CVL Bataan, and a TT into BB Mississippi.  (I don't have access to the game at home, so until tomorrow morning I won't be able to open the file and see how badly Franklin is hurt).  Unless those bombs hit something critical, she should still be able to launch.

Indian Ocean Battle:  Far to the south, a powerful Jap combat TF including BBs Yamato and Musashi tangled with the Royal Navy at Port Blair, and then RN carriers while trying to retire.  The surface action looked like it favored the Japs (results posted in a little while), but the carriers got revenge.  BB Musashi took a bomb and 5 torpedoes, CL Kiso a torpedo, and 2 DDs went under.  I'm concerened that the RN may have been hurt badly by these large caliber weapons, but I won't know until I open the file.  But the Japs are going to be hurting for BBs now - John had lost four with two or three others recently taking torpedoes near Iwo Jima; now Musashi should go under or be out of the war, and Yamato was hurt somewhat.  Here are the combat reports for this battle:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Blair at 23,34

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Shell hits 1
BB Musashi, Shell hits 1
CL Kiso
CL Tenryu
DD Kazegumo
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Yudachi
DD Ariake
DD Inazuma, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Fubuki
DD Uranami, Shell hits 1
DD Amagiri
DD Yayoi, Shell hits 1
DD Hakaze, Shell hits 3
DD Yakaze, Shell hits 1
DD Tachikaze
DD Hasu
DD Wakatake
DD Tomozuru


Allied Ships
BB Revenge, Shell hits 8
BB Resolution, Shell hits 3, on fire
BC Repulse
CA Cornwall
CL Glasgow
DD John D. Edwards
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 1
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 2
DD Voyager
DD Evertsen
DD Kortenaer
DD Hotspur, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Nepal
DD Norman
DD Kimberlley, Shell hits 3, on fire

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Blair at 23,34

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Shell hits 1
BB Musashi, Shell hits 1
CL Kiso
CL Tenryu
DD Kazegumo
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Yudachi
DD Ariake
DD Inazuma, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Fubuki
DD Uranami, Shell hits 1
DD Amagiri
DD Yayoi, Shell hits 1
DD Hakaze, Shell hits 3
DD Yakaze, Shell hits 1
DD Tachikaze
DD Hasu
DD Wakatake
DD Tomozuru


Allied Ships
BB Revenge, Shell hits 8
BB Resolution, Shell hits 3, on fire
BC Repulse
CA Cornwall
CL Glasgow
DD John D. Edwards
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 1
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 2
DD Voyager
DD Evertsen
DD Kortenaer
DD Hotspur, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Nepal
DD Norman
DD Kimberlley, Shell hits 3, on fire

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Blair at 23,34

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Shell hits 2, on fire
BB Musashi, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CL Kiso, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CL Tenryu, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Yudachi, Shell hits 2
DD Ariake, Shell hits 1
DD Inazuma, on fire
DD Fubuki
DD Uranami
DD Amagiri, Shell hits 2
DD Yayoi, Shell hits 8, on fire
DD Hakaze, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yakaze, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Tachikaze
DD Hasu
DD Wakatake
DD Tomozuru, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
BB Revenge, Shell hits 16, on fire
BB Resolution, Shell hits 13, on fire
BC Repulse, Shell hits 7
CA Cornwall, Shell hits 2
CL Glasgow
DD John D. Edwards, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD John D. Ford
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Voyager
DD Evertsen, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Kortenaer, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Nepal, Shell hits 1
DD Norman
DD Kimberlley, on fire

Day Air attack on TF at 22,35


Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 12
Spitfire VIII x 9
B-25J Mitchell x 13


Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 3 damaged


Japanese Ships
BB Musashi, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 22,35


Allied aircraft
Corsair IV x 11
Avenger I x 7
Avenger II x 24


No Allied losses
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 22,35


Allied aircraft
Hellcat II x 3
Corsair IV x 10
Avenger I x 29
Avenger II x 8


Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
CL Kiso, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Day Air attack on TF at 21,37

Japanese aircraft
A6M2-N Rufe x 2

Allied aircraft
Hellcat II x 3
Corsair IV x 21
Avenger I x 32
Avenger II x 26

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2-N Rufe: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger I: 4 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Yakaze, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yayoi, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

I'm going to take a break and I'll post more in a few minutes.

(in reply to VSWG)
Post #: 578
RE: Winning Carrier Battle Without Strike Aircraft - 7/12/2008 10:28:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Here are the combat report details for the Battle of the Kurile Islands:

Day Air attack on TF at 77,35

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 20
A6M2 Zero x 8
A6M3a Zero x 9

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 24
TBF Avenger x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 9 destroyed, 5 damaged
TBF Avenger: 3 destroyed, 9 damaged


Japanese Ships
CV Unryu, Torpedo hits 1
CV Amagi

Aircraft Attacking:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 2
D4Y Judy x 27

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 208

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 2 destroyed
D4Y Judy: 25 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 1
B5N Kate x 18

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 208

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 1 destroyed
B5N Kate: 14 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 damaged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Toyohara at 73,33

Japanese aircraft
Ki-49 Helen x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49 Helen: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
DD Eaton

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 3000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 2
B6N Jill x 14

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 208

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 2 destroyed
B6N Jill: 10 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 154
A6M2 Zero x 90
D4Y Judy x 105
A6M3a Zero x 104
B5N Kate x 18
B6N Jill x 15

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 208

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 136 destroyed
A6M2 Zero: 75 destroyed
D4Y Judy: 39 destroyed, 27 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 85 destroyed
B5N Kate: 10 destroyed
B6N Jill: 5 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 123 destroyed

Allied Ships
CV Franklin, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CVL San Jacinto
CA Boise, Bomb hits 1
CVL Bataan, Bomb hits 1, on fire
BB Mississippi, Torpedo hits 1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 17
B6N Jill x 4

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 85

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 9 destroyed
B6N Jill: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 15 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied Ships
CV Enterprise

There were a few other hits in the afternoon, but these were the main clashes.  (For those reading this, see preceding post for narrative of how the Allies won - I think - the Battle of the Kuriles and the Battle of Malacca Straits)

Now, I'll do one more post to summarize what else happened and where I go from here.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 579
RE: Winning Carrier Battle Without Strike Aircraft - 7/12/2008 10:39:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Now, for the rest of the day (those just arriving at my AAR, see the preceeding two posts for the details about the big air and sea battles in the Kuriles and the Malacca Straits; this post is to finish up with important details for the day):

1.  The Jap navy and airforce wreaked more havoc on Allied transports, mainly at Hakodate, Sapporo, and a number of TFs retiring towards Midway.  This continued the utter carnage incurred by Allied transports; but there is no question the cost is worth it if the Allies can establish a permanent and strong presence at Hokkaido and or Sakhalin Island (well, the latter isn't nearly as good as the former, I should add).  John has probably sunk 200 transports over the past five or six days.

2.  The Allies took Toyahara and Adak Island!  So, finally, the Allies have a port and airfield in the area.  Can I afford to send my CVs to Toyahara to replenish (assuming there are enough supplies there to permit such)?  Perhaps, since I think Jap carrier air is crippled, and since John had to vacate his airfield at Sapporo.  This COULD work!  I'll know better when I open the turn file and see what is where and how many supplies are available.

3.  The Allies failed to take Sapporo despite light resistance, but it will fall tomorrow barring divine intervention.  See the end of this post for the combat results there.

4.  Major questions now are:  how many supplies are at Toyahara and how many will be at Sapporo when I take that base tomorrow?  (Also, these bases have resources, etc., so will they generate their own supplies?)

5.  What will the Allies do?  Tomorrow they should take Sapporo and the middle base on Sakhalin Island, adding to Toyarhara.  If Toyohara has good supplies, and if it looks like the carrier battle crippled John's ability to strike offensively, I will send my combat ships and carriers to Toyahara.  If the situation isn't as good as I had hoped, I will probably head for that middle base, which is more remote.

6.  The Allies have about 800 AV ashore on Hokkaido - 450 at Hakodate, 350+ at Sapporo.  This isn't enough to withstand a determined and prolonged Jap counteroffensive, but if the American carriers remain viable and potent and can stay in the area until the situation stabalizes, I think I have a chance to hold these gains.  Holding big bases at Hokkaido and Sakhalin Island is "everything" - do it and I've won a great victory; fail and I've lost pretty much everything.

7.  The icing on the cake is the new base in the Aleutians, plus the results at Port Blair and vicinity.

Ground combat at Sapporo

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 17071 troops, 194 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 445

Defending force 5055 troops, 121 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 73

Allied max assault: 782 - adjusted assault: 238

Japanese max defense: 54 - adjusted defense: 33

Allied assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 6)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 0


Japanese ground losses:
121 casualties reported
Guns lost 12
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
632 casualties reported
Guns lost 12
Vehicles lost 10

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 580
RE: Winning Carrier Battle Without Strike Aircraft - 7/12/2008 10:42:27 PM   
pat.casey

 

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Did you take a land base? You really need a local airbase to put army air on. Naval aircraft and pilot pools can't keep up this pace of attrition, can they?

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RE: Winning Carrier Battle Without Strike Aircraft - 7/12/2008 10:47:26 PM   
USSAmerica


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This is great stuff, Dan!  Very exciting and entertaining for those of us that are casual observers. 

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RE: Winning Carrier Battle Without Strike Aircraft - 7/12/2008 10:56:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

Did you take a land base? You really need a local airbase to put army air on. Naval aircraft and pilot pools can't keep up this pace of attrition, can they?


Yes, I took Toyahara on Sakhalin Island. I should be able to transfer a squadron of P-38s there from Tori Shima; I doubt my Corsairs have the range to make it. I should take Sapporo tomorrow and I'm pretty sure my Corsairs can make it there.

No, I cannot continue to take any more carrier-based air losses. I have no strike aircraft left and just 100 Hellcats. I "think" John's carriers are now running low (both aircraft and sorties most likely). I hope i can put into port and replinish under the protection of LBA. If, for some reason, that is impossible, I would probably try to get my carries back to Midway. But I think I can do it.

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RE: Winning Carrier Battle Without Strike Aircraft - 7/13/2008 5:17:50 AM   
Canoerebel


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Still haven't looked at the file, but one other important detail occurred to me.

With Musashi and Yamato down at Sumatra, with four Jap BBs sunk already, with Hiei crippled at Iwo and Ise taking a TT there, I think that leaves John with just a BB or two up north (Kongo is there, and I think Mutsu also).  The U.S. Navy should be able to outgun the Japanese Navy.  The Allies have two fast BB and at least five slow ones.  If I can get my carrier squadrons replenished quickly, and if I can get an Hokkaido airfield operational and staffed by a base force quickly, I think I will have the upper hand and might be able to prevent John from retaking the Hokkaido bases. 

Also, Sappporo is a level 9 port.  I have an ML on the way, but it will have a periolous course in reaching Hokkaido.  It's trying to hide in Arctic snow squalls.

I think the odds of success have increased from 10% to 50%.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/13/2008 5:20:16 AM >

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RE: Winning Carrier Battle Without Strike Aircraft - 7/13/2008 10:29:16 AM   
DW

 

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Man...

You're killing me.

I've been on pins and needles since this offensive started.

I notice that this time around, with your planning blackout in the forums, that your opponent was taken completely by surprise. No "coincidental" reinforcements...

It makes one wonder.

Anyway, this is a gutsy offensive, and while it's been expensive in terms of merchant shipping, if you can hang in and see it though your opponent is going to be in a world of hurt.

Nice Job!

Good luck.

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Facing Crucial Decisions - 7/13/2008 2:04:06 PM   
Canoerebel


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December 10 was indeed a great day for the Allies, but it has left my carriers without fighter protection, so now I face momentous decisions.  Some highlights:

1.  The Battle of Port Blair/Malacca Straits was a great Allied victory.  The Allies lost two DDs and may lose a third.  BBs Revenge and Resolution only suffered moderate damage and are fine, barring bad luck (subs) on the way to Trincomalee.  The Japs have thus far lost BB Musashi, CL Tenyru, and two DDs.  Yamato to a "critical damage" hit to the engine room, but made it more than half way back to Sabang, so she probably has but light damage.  The RN rocks.

2.  Up north, CV Hancock is worse off than I had anticipated.  The three bombs have left her with high-end moderate damage; CVL Bataan with light-end moderate damage; BB Mississippi with moderate damage.  My other CVs remain in good shape, with plenty of AA, but I'm down to just 100 Hellcats (arg!).

3.  The KB moved aggressively last turn, just north of the Kuriles.  John has lost over 1000 carrier aircraft in this battle.  Can he easily bring in reinforcements from Japan, or not?  Are his carriers running low on mission sorties after a week of combat, or not?  Crucial question and the truth is, I'm not sure.

4.  If my carriers could replenish fighters, I would win this battle.  I transfered a small Hellcat squadron (just five planes left in it) from a CVE to Toyahara, my pretty new base.  Sadly, the game would not let me draw replacements for this squadron.  I'm not sure why, but that is very bad news.  What if I send my CVs to Toyahara to get them in position to replenish, but they too can't?  The KB is right there, so it could be carnage.

5.  I transferred a P-38 squadron from Tori Shima to Toyahara even though the latter doesn't yet have a base force.  It can fight for a turn or two.  Might spook John a bit too.

6.  If I KNEW the KB still had plenty of aircraft and mission sorties, I think it would have to get my CVs out of the area - possibly to Kiska or Adak where they should be able to replenish, and where there will soon be some LBA fighter cover.  If my CVs had fighters, I would ABSOLUTELY stick around, work out the replenishment issues, and win this battle big.  If I KNEW the Japs were low on carrier aircraft or missions sorties, I would keep my CVs in the area, taking the chance that I could draw reinforcement aircraft. 

7.  So what do I do?  Send my carriers fleing for Alaska?  Or stick around to maximize what chance I have to win this battle.  I can win the land battle if my carriers can fight.  But I don't know if I have the time to get them replenished and whether replenishment is going to work from Toyahara and/or the base to the north (which I should take tomorrow).

What to do?

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RE: Facing Crucial Decisions - 7/13/2008 2:35:30 PM   
String


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Toyohara is probably out of f6f transfer range from an allied base capable of resupplying them (20k supplies or area HQ) so it is highly likely that you won't gain any replacements there.

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RE: Facing Crucial Decisions - 7/13/2008 2:49:25 PM   
pat.casey

 

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I think your critical thing here is that you get an airbase up and running asap.

If you can get your LBA into the game at this point, your chances of winning this one go way up. If you keep having to rely on naval air, you're going to run out of airframes and pilots, even IF you get a resupply base up and running.

Seems like you've got an airbase right now, but no base force :(.

Is there ANY way you can get a base force to Toyahara? Air transport, fast transport, sub transport, etc? Get a baseforce up there, 100 corsairs, and some naval attack craft and suddenly the IJN has to keep away.

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RE: Facing Crucial Decisions - 7/13/2008 3:11:44 PM   
Canoerebel


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There are base forces in the area, but it's a bit of a complicated dance that will take time and I think I'm running short on that:

1)  The middle base on Sakhalin Island (Shikara?) is a level one airbase that I should take this turn.  I already have on the ground base force personnel capable of handling 50 aircraft.  I also have crated aircraft and a big aviation regiment on transports in this port (which is the most remote port furthest from Jap airfields and the KB).  So, I should take Shikara this turn and that will allow me to transfer in fighters, unload some transports (Dakotas), and unload that aviation regiment, which I could then air transport to various places.  If I get some control of the seas, I could also transfer personnel by fast transport.

2)  Toyohara is a big airbase (I think level 6 right now) without a base force.  I will try to get personnel here from Sakhalin Island asap.  I have about 22 P-38s and 5 Hellcats there this turn, and they will provide some air cover.  I think I'll send a stout combat TF here, too, in case John does the same.

3)  I should take Sapporo (level 9 port and big airfield) tomorrow.  No base force on the ground here (as explained earlier, the aviation regiment came ashore at Hakodate).  If I take Sapporo, I will move a unit to the hex between Hakodate and Sapporo.  That may allow me to then "retreat" that aviation regiment to Sapporo. 

4)  Sounds like I can't replenish Hellcats anytime soon (unless Sapporo or Shikhara has more supplies than I expect).  However, I think if I evacuate my carriers now that the Japs would descend on my forces like a plague of locusts and eliminate my chances of stabilizing the area long before my carriers could get back. 

5)  So I think I may send my CVs north again.  They should be out of danger at least for a day and that will allow me to take Sapporo and Shikhara and to then further evaluate the situation.  Too, if the KB retreats toward a Japanese port to replenish, that might give me a window to try resupplying ship ammo in a port and to see if I can draw replacement aircraft.  If the KB continues aggressive...well, I don't know what I'll do yet.

6)  In summary, P-38s and a small detachment of Hellcats provide cover for some combat ships at Toyohara.  The Allies take Shakhara and hope to get crated fighters, transports, and an aviation regiment unloaded.  And I take Sapporo and figure out if that offers me help soon.

If I my carriers had Hellcats, I think my odds of success here would be at least 75%.  Right now I'd put it at 25%.

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RE: Facing Crucial Decisions - 7/13/2008 4:31:26 PM   
castor troy


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with all the carrier aircraft lost I wonder if you still habe USN pilots left in the pool?

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RE: Facing Crucial Decisions - 7/13/2008 4:31:29 PM   
Canoerebel


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Update:  That is the plan I have adopted.  The U.S. carriers steam north four hexes and will take station a little mor than halfway between Shakhara and Okha.  One big combat TF will go to Sakharin to protect the transports and cargo unloading there.  No CAP for these folks.  Another big combat TF will go to Toyahara with P-38s and a small Hellcat squadron providing CAP. 

Honestly, this turn could be the end for the Allies; or it could be the dawn of a new day.

I have lost scores - hundreds - of transports.  That, combined with the vast numbers of transports John sank in Australia (when he had them trapped in a corner of the map) means I won't be able to do another amphibious operation in the Pacific for months.  That's okay if I hold Hokkaido (and Sakhalin), as all I need in that event is supplies, and that I can handle.  If I take and keep those bases up there, the American forces will operation from there, the Aussies will take care of Australia (and eventually places like Suva and New Caledonia), and the British Empire and Chinese should make good progress in Sumatra and Malaya.  IE, I think I can win the war.  But I'm very worried about the situation up north.


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RE: Facing Crucial Decisions - 7/13/2008 4:35:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

with all the carrier aircraft lost I wonder if you still habe USN pilots left in the pool?


I certainly think so. We haven't had much carrier combat for many months, so the pools should be very large by now. I think he's lost more carrier aircraft than I have in this battle now. I wonder how he's doing?

But what I really need to know is whether his carriers are low on mission sorties. Five or six days now of heavy carrier operations. When my Royal Navy CVs chased and sank that Mini-KB in the Indian Ocean earlier this year, I was running low on sorties after three or four days of launches. Surely he is. (What I mean to say is, "I hope he is.")

Edit: I currently have 4500 Navy pilots in my pool, and even more Army and Marine pilots. So those are fine. But noticed that the RAF only has 11 pilots in the pool!

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/13/2008 4:38:44 PM >

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RE: Wild Round! So What Happened? - 7/14/2008 1:40:44 PM   
Canoerebel


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A few days ago, one poster suggested that I concentrate on a land campaign in southeast Asia. I replied, explaining some of the reasons I preferred a series of amphibious operations, but I omitted one of the most important.

By employing the Royal Navy and transports in a big way - in large numbers with ambitious undertakings - it draws John's full attention and creates a sitaution where he perceives a need to call on his own navy and airforce to counter the Allied operations. I definately want to promote conditions in which John has a pressing need to use his naval and air power "down there." The recent Japanese "raid" on Port Blair, which became a big Allied victory, is a perfect example.

Were I to concentrate on a land campaign against Bangkok, John could send most of his combat ships up to Hokkaido. Having Yamato and Musashi near Sumatra helps alot. And now Musashi is no more.

quote:

ORIGINAL: sjohnson

Hi there,

First time posting in your AAR but, as I am sure many others are, I have been following your game for a while.  I like the go for broke strategy and you seem to have caught John off guard in some areas.  Strategically you have surprised him, yet, why Hakodate/Sapporo?  It would be a nice coup-de-main, but, hard to reinforce and hold.

It seems to me that if Sakhalin is poorly guarded then why not reinforce this move, if not throw everything at it as well as the other Kurile islands that look like they may be up for grabs.

This would:
1) secure one flank of your forces (the N/NW) with russian territory
2) give you a good LOC back to the west coast through the aleutians, alaska, and canadian coast - all of which can base airpower for scouting and convoy cover
3)  provide you sufficient bases (you can build up the lvl 0 aflds to lvl 3 which is good enough for fighters and light attack craft) for airpower and heavies in Sakhalin to bomb Japan
4)  provide you with good sub bases in the Japanese home islands with little risk - meaning most of your damaged subs will have a good chance of makiing it to a port; and note the allied sub force builds up quickly in numbers in mid 44 onwards
5)  forces John to honor the threat of additional invasions and disperse airpower, etc. to Northern Japan
6)  allows you to redeploy your carriers back to Iwo/CPac regions and provide a continual threat with multiple areas to strike

Lastly on a strategic side, if he has really pulled as many troops out of China as it appears and your Burma forces continue to advance - as opposed to advancing down malaya and even into Indochina and slogging out against fort lines in malaria terrain - why not use air transport assets and start shifting supply and forces into China for a drive to the coast somewhere - getting lvl 5 airbases within range of Formosa giving you the ability to interdict shipping skirting the coast into south-west Japan.


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Combat TF Tangles with the KB - 7/14/2008 2:39:39 PM   
Canoerebel


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12/11/43
 
I am just beginning the combat replay, but wanted to post this in several parts as so much happened on the 11th.

Combat TF Tangles with the KB:  You will recall that I had two combat TFs, one each heading to Toyahara and Shikuka.  On the way, one of the TFs (flagged by BB Washington) would head to a point just above the Kuriles where I thought the KB might take station.  I guessed right and a series of battle erupted.  It could have been an incredible victory for the Allies, but my ships primarily hit escorts.  (Note:  Each of the Jap CV TFs is escorted only by a handful of DDs - John had apparently stripped many other DDs and CAs to form his surface combat TFs that he is using to raid Toyahara and Shikuka).

1)  TF vs. KB Round One:  The Allied TF closes with a TF comprised of DDs, CV Taiho, CVL Chitose, and CVL Chiyoda.  The Allies cripple or sink Chiyoda and five DDs.

2)  TF vs. KB Round Two:  The Allies get a few hits on CV Hiryu doing light damage, miss Soryu, and cripple or damage three DDs.

3)  TF vs. KB Round Three:  CVL Zuiho and CVEs Taiyo and Kaiyo take a few hits doing probably no more than light damage; no its on CVE Shinyo; two DDs sunk or crippled.

4)  TF v. KB Round Four:  CVE Chuyo takes light damage with other CVEs and CVLs (including Ryujo) escaping.  Three DDs are sunk or crippled.

During all of this, the Allied combat TFs took a few hits, including a torpedo or two.

Impact:  The Allies just missed scoring a great victory.  But my combat ships pay for it later in the day due to LBA strikes (I think Washington will take 6 TTs and go down if memory serves).  I still think John's carriers have to be running low on mission sorties; that and these events may spook him, too.  I suspect he'll have to get the KB out of harm's way, so if the Allied carriers are ever going to try to make port and replenish, tomorrow will be the day.

I'll post more about the day's events later.  It was not a good day for Allied combat ships and transports, but the Allied carriers weren't hit.

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RE: Combat TF Tangles with the KB - 7/14/2008 3:30:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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Update:  I will give more information about the day's events.  It was a pretty good day for the Allies, mainly because of the surface combat battle with the KB, but one thing became absolutely clear, casting a great shadow over everything.  Although the Allies now have Sapporo, Toyahara, Shikaku, and two of the Kuriles, it is clear that I do not have the supplies to replenish my carrier aircraft squadrons (I brought plenty of supplies, but too many ships have gone under, and too much has been expended in landings, etc.).

This means I have to try to extract my carriers now.  That in and of itself will not be easy.  I'm not sure whether I'll make for Midway, the Aleutians, or Iwo Jima.  If my carriers make it, I might be able to return and try to salvage something, but at the moment I doubt I'll be able to hold anything except the gains in the Aleutians.

The Allies will have suffered a great defeat, although several times I came closer to victory than I deserved.  When and if I get my carriers out of there, I'll be able to evaluate the situation to see if I can recover from my losses.  My initial guess is that it is worth continuing the game (as long as my carriers survive) because the Japs have taken tremendous losses too, especially in aircraft and destroyers.

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RE: Combat TF Tangles with the KB - 7/14/2008 3:56:51 PM   
pat.casey

 

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Hokaido is an island, neh? So the only way he can reinforce it is by sea. Get aircraft onto those bases ASAP and he'll be invading you for once, and have to fight through your LBA to get there.

Likewise, I'd retreat east rather than south. East gets you away from the LBA on the home islands faster doesn't it? With only 100 or so hellcats left, you need to get out of the danger envelope fast. Seems like you can deal with 1 more strike and take acceptable losses. Second mass strike will kill your carriers though.

So start building a resupply convoy now at midway, run the carriers back, replenish, and fight it back in. It's a low probability play I think, but at least it gives you an opportunity to win. If you just cut and run now, I suspect he retakes Hokaido and it's game over.

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RE: Combat TF Tangles with the KB - 7/14/2008 4:03:45 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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I would say head for Anchorage or Dutch Harbor (if you enough supply there) and stay in the bad weather. Franklin, if she is still afloat, will have to be detached. Maybe she can hug the Siberian coast?

Get your units back from Hakodate if you lack the power to capture it..reinforce Sapporo and take Asahikawa. Mine the heck out of Sapporo and bring in mostly fighters, whatever your supply and aviation support will permit. If you lose all your land forces ashore, you will certainly go down in flames. Leave some kind of surface force behind.

Maybe you can form an air transport bridge over the Aleutians. Find some transports, then come back with supply and your carriers.

And if Admiral King or General Marshall calls, have your secretary tell them you aren't in.

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RE: Combat TF Tangles with the KB - 7/14/2008 4:05:05 PM   
NormS3


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Wow!!!

Can hardly wait for the next update.  may just camp here all day!!!

< Message edited by Norm3 -- 7/14/2008 4:06:17 PM >

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Major Correction and Help Needed! - 7/14/2008 4:05:50 PM   
Canoerebel


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Okay, folks, I was wrong.  I might be able to unload 30 or 40k supplies at Shikuka, the middle base on Sikhalin Island.  I also have base forces there and can put in LBA and also some LBA from Toyahara.  Plus I'll have some big combat TFs there.  So is it worth trying to dock my carriers there to replenish?  Is there any reason that I couldn't replenish aircraft squadrons on my carriers at a Level 4 port that had, say, 35,000 supplies?
 
As stated, I believe I win this battles if my carriers are fully functional.  So I'm not retreating (but now I have to return to the turn file and issue orders for everything to go to Shikuka; I had most ships heading SE toward Midway, though I might have sent my carriers to the Aleutians).

Okay, folks, I say stay and fight to the finish unless somebody tells me I can't replenish at Shikuka for some strange reason.

Edit: I just checked the transports in and very close to Shikuka. I think I might have as much as 100k supplies ready to unload. My first step was to transfer two P-38J squadrons from Harbin, China, to Shikuka (I had moved them there from Burma and vicinity yesterday). Shikuka is a level four port, level one airfield, so it can only base 50 aircraft. Everything, and I mean everything, is going there. My carriers will arrive overnight. There will be two big combat TFs there. And lots and lots of supplies unloading. The second big step will be to transfer a bunch of PBY Liberator squadrons to Sapporo (level 6 airfield, but no base support) to see if I can surprise some Jap ships.

The Japs have three BBs (Nagato, Mutsu, Kongo) operating here, but I think my combat TFs can handle them for awhile. The question is whether Jap bombers will catch my carriers in port. I still think Jap CVs may retire (due to low missions sorties and their recent unpleasant encounter with BB Washington and friends). There is no doubt in my mind that this is the right move. I feel so sure of the "right course of action" now that even if it turns out badly I will feel like I gave it everything I had.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/14/2008 4:21:39 PM >

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RE: Combat TF Tangles with the KB - 7/14/2008 4:34:16 PM   
EUBanana


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pat.casey
Hokaido is an island, neh? So the only way he can reinforce it is by sea.


Or by air.

And its an island wholly under basically as big a Japanese air umbrella as its possible to have, with Jap supply lines of length 0. The whole IJ air force can be on him if need be.



I think its long odds myself, but still. Riveting stuff!

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