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RE: Turn 11 - 8/19/2008 11:02:32 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 11. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Other than some attempts at bridge repair, nothing is happening on this sector. Note at the very top, that the Soviets pulled one army out of the line and replaced it with a RES unit. The removed army was sent to the Kerch defense. The Soviets need to do more of this for other threatened sectors, but must do so in a manner that doesn’t tempt the Germans to refocus on Moscow.




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RE: Turn 11 - 8/19/2008 11:06:26 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 11. One more manpower center was captured (Simferopol – reducing Soviet manpower by 0.53%. The new grand total reduction is 0.53% + 17.38% = 17.91%). The six pocketed armies in the Kiev pocket continue to wither even more rapidly. Sevastopol is now cut off, and may soon be assaulted. As mentioned above, the Soviets shifted an army from in front of Moscow to the Kerch straight. It must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the Soviet defense of the Ukraine area (between Orel and Rostov) still needs to be strengthened. Once the Kiev pocket has been reduced, that’s where the Germans are likely to focus next.

Of the 34 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, and eight were denied due to German capture. The Pacific Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There were three new Soviet cadres, and two were destroyed.




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Turn 12 - 8/19/2008 11:10:01 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 12


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 12. Little happened here, except for heavy Soviet reinforcement arrivals. The Lagoda hex may be lost, but the Soviets still want to secure the northern flank of their overall defense line. The Germans must not be allowed to make a bad situation worse, by rolling up the whole Soviet line. If properly secured, that’s unlikely, due to the very poor terrain in the area. But if they are allowed to break out of the anchoring area, the front will expand so wide it will never be plugged. Reinforcements are also being sent to the area north of here, to guard Archangel. While the Finns may be restricted, the Germans are not, and they now have an open path to be moved up there.




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RE: Turn 12 - 8/19/2008 11:13:11 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 12. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Nothing is happening on this sector. Note that the Soviets pulled three RES units out of the second line. The removed units were sent to the Ukraine defense.




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RE: Turn 12 - 8/19/2008 11:17:01 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 12. One more manpower center was captured (Cherkasy – reducing Soviet manpower by 0.66%. The new grand total reduction is 0.66% + 17.91% = 18.57%). Four of the six armies in the Kiev pocket were eliminated. Note that the remaining two armies in Kiev itself now have a cumulative strength of only 5+6=11. When they were first cut off back at the end of turn nine, their strength was 38+58=96. That’s a reduction of 88.5% in only three turns. Sevastopol was captured. That will result in the Black Sea Fleet being mothballed next turn (with a dump of squads into the pools), and the release of the Romanian Fleet. Kharkov is now seriously threatened, as is the north coast of the Sea of Azov, where the 26th Army has been pocketed.

The TO to release the Stalino factory was exercised (increasing the reduction of Soviet production to 17.53%). Of the 32 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 17 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, and five were denied due to German capture. There were three new Soviet cadres, and all, plus the one left from the previous turn, were destroyed.




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Turn 13 - 8/19/2008 11:20:26 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 13


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 13. One hex was captured. The terrain is so bad up here and there is so little of value nearby, that a serious effort isn’t worth it. The one goal worth continuing, though, is the chance to separate the Soviets from their anchor to their defense line. Then they might be forced to shift extra forces up here to plug the resulting flank that would be hanging unanchored. That’s unlikely, since the Soviets have been shifting forces here anyway, and are approaching force parity. AGN no longer has any armor – not that the terrain is favorable to armor, anyway. In fact, a new armored corps assigned to AGN arrived this turn and was sent elsewhere for those reasons. Otherwise, some effort is useful to put some more distance between Leningrad and the Soviet lines, to discourage any relief attempts.




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RE: Turn 13 - 8/19/2008 11:23:19 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 13. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Nothing is happening on this sector. Note that the Soviets pulled two RES units and one army out of the second line. The removed units were sent to the Ukraine defense. It’s getting risky to pull out any more, yet the Ukraine is still in serious danger.




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RE: Turn 13 - 8/19/2008 11:27:34 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 13. Two more manpower centers were captured (Kiev & Kharkov – reducing Soviet manpower by 1.92% & 1.95%. The new grand total reduction is 1.92% + 1.95% + 18.57% = 22.44%). Note that, like any other major city, these two hexes must be garrisoned by a division. The Kiev pocket was eliminated. The Black Sea Fleet was mothballed and the Romanian Fleet was released. Kharkov was captured at considerable cost. The 26th Army was eliminated. Note that the forces that had been reducing the Kiev pocket are now being shifted to an offensive against the Ukraine. Moscow is simply too far away and too well defended. And the Ukraine has lots of VP sites in it.

Also, a success in the Ukraine could dislodge the southern anchor of the Soviet defense line at Rostov – vastly expanding the length of the Soviet defense. Success at the Kerch straight may add to this problem, as well. The Kerch straight defenders evaporated without much of a fight – probably due to the fact that I deployed them east of the straight, and they couldn’t retreat across it. The way I’ve played the Soviets in this game, I expect that if I had actually been one of Stalin’s marshals, I would have been shot some time ago. The one real hope for the Soviets is that there are only three more turns of good weather. They desperately need the mud phase to start, so they can dig in and rebuild.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 15 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, and eight were denied due to German capture. There were three new Soviet cadres, and two were destroyed. I just noticed that, back on turn 12, a cadre had been pushed onto one of the repaired rail hexes of the AGC track, breaking it when the Germans recaptured it. Rather than delay the AGC track’s repair, I’ll shift the AGN RR unit to fix it, since AGN is getting supply from Helsinki now, and soon will have a supply point in Leningrad, once it falls.




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Turn 14 - 8/19/2008 11:31:37 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 14


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 14. Two hexes were captured. It looks like there may be a rupture of the Soviet lines, but the flooded terrain in front of it will prevent that. In fact, the Germans have to be careful not to advance units into unsupplied conditions. Badlands block supply transfer through them.




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RE: Turn 14 - 8/19/2008 11:34:40 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 14. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. There is still nothing happening on this sector. Note that the Soviets pulled three more RES units out of the second line. The removed units were again sent to the Ukraine defense. Because of the serious danger to the Ukraine, the Soviets have no choice but to be very risky on this quiet sector.




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RE: Turn 14 - 8/19/2008 11:38:11 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 14. A weak spot in front of Kharkov was exploited, and the Soviets have rushed units to the sector. Kerch was captured. The Soviets can’t afford to lose any more ground there, so an HQ and even a bomber unit in CS deployment have been rushed there, in hopes of finally stopping the Axis juggernaut.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 8 were auto-disbanded, and nine were denied due to German capture. The Atlantic Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. Note that both the Kiev and Kharkov auto-disbandments were stopped. There was one new Soviet cadre, and it and the one left from the previous turn were destroyed.




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Turn 15 - 8/19/2008 11:41:37 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 15


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 15. One hex was captured. Hopes for any meaningful progress in this sector seem dashed. And forces must be retained for the assault on Leningrad when it weakens sufficiently. For that reason, further offensive operations here may be halted.




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RE: Turn 15 - 8/19/2008 11:45:34 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 15. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. (The AGC sector was skipped due to inactivity). There are now three axes of advance that have developed: from Kharkov towards Kursk & Voronezh, a pincer movement towards Stalino, and from Kerch towards Krasnodar. All had some success at significant cost. It’s just incredible how difficult it has been for the Soviets to halt the Crimean offensive. But time is running out. The mud is already having effect, even before the official mud phase soon to come. The Soviets continue to defend desperately. They’ve now committed a couple more air units to CS deployment in the area, ignoring whatever the cost to the air force might be.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 8 were auto-disbanded, and nine were denied due to German capture. The Pacific Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There was one new Soviet cadre, and it was destroyed.




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Turn 16 - 8/19/2008 11:48:57 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 16


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 16. There were no attacks here. The Germans halted the offensive and started repositioning for the eventual Leningrad assault. The Leningrad supply point was removed. Note that the Leningrad defenders weakened slightly. They were all at 150% supply before the supply point was removed, so it will take quite a while before they weaken enough for the Germans to risk an assault.




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RE: Turn 16 - 8/19/2008 11:52:33 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 16. While the axis of advance towards Kursk & Voronezh had previously been shown as part of the AGS sector, I thought it might be interesting to consider it part of AGC this time. This way, you can see the (slight) threat to Moscow that it poses. Kursk was captured at great cost to both sides. Voronezh was cleared but not entered, and the Soviets managed to get a new unit into it. It’s doubtful that will be enough to save it, though.

One more manpower center was captured (Kursk – reducing Soviet manpower by 1.04%. The new grand total reduction is 1.04% + 22.44% = 23.48%). The TO to release the Orel factory was exercised (increasing the reduction of Soviet production to 18.35%).




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RE: Turn 16 - 8/19/2008 11:56:11 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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From: Houston, TX
Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 16. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Since the Kharkov axis has now been shifted to AGC, only the Stalino and Crimea axes are considered here. Both had some success. The pincer toward Stalino was closed, routing the Caucasus HQ and pocketing part of the 44th Army. However, that part then overran the blocking Axis corps, to reestablish communications. Despite the success, this offensive is in danger of grinding to a halt. Too much force has been siphoned off to Kursk and the Crimea. That needs to be corrected during the mud phase, unless a real attempt on Moscow is planned. The Soviets still don’t have the force in place to halt the offensive out of the Crimea. But if the Ukrainian offensive fails, success down there will be a poor substitute.

This was the last fair weather turn. There will now be a four-turn mud-phase interlude before a final cold weather opportunity phase for the Axis, followed by the blizzard-phase, where the Soviets may take the offensive. Both sides need to use the mud-phase to rest and redeploy. But there may still be some offensive action at a few weak-points. All units still defend, but only one in three (on average) will be available for attack. That should make offensive action difficult to pull off, except at such weak locations.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 15 were manually disbanded, 8 were auto-disbanded, and ten were denied due to German capture. There was one new Soviet cadre, and it was destroyed.




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Turn 17 - 8/19/2008 11:59:14 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 17


This is the first turn of the mud phase. Both sides are under 67% shock penalties, putting most formations into reorganization. The AGN sector was skipped due to inaction.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 17. Voronezh was again cleared but not entered, but the Soviets had to leave it unoccupied. Note that, while the Orel factory was released, it was in reorganization.




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RE: Turn 17 - 8/20/2008 12:02:23 AM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 17. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Some ground was gained in the Ukraine and towards Krasnodar.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 8 were auto-disbanded, and nine were denied due to German capture. There was one new Soviet cadre, and it was destroyed.




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Turn 18 - 8/20/2008 12:05:13 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 18


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 18. Voronezh was finally entered. The Orel factory was still in reorganization.




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RE: Turn 18 - 8/20/2008 12:08:27 AM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 18. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. There were no attacks anywhere on the map, due to the mud penalty, and no ground was gained in this sector. Note that the Slovakian expeditionary force was withdrawn this turn.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 8 were auto-disbanded, and nine were denied due to German capture. The Atlantic Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There was one new Soviet cadre, but it could not be attacked.




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Turn 19 - 8/20/2008 12:11:14 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 19


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 19. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. There were no frontline attacks anywhere on the map, due to the mud penalty, and ground was gained only in the Crimean offensive sector, as shown.

Of the 34 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 14 were manually disbanded, 8 were auto-disbanded, and 12 were denied due to German capture. The Pacific Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There were two new Soviet cadres, and one of those, plus the one left over from last turn, was destroyed.




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Turn 20 - 8/20/2008 12:13:57 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 20


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 20. Note the microscreen in the SW corner for reference. There were no attacks anywhere on the map, due to the mud penalty, and ground was gained only next to Voronezh, as shown.

Of the 34 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 8 were auto-disbanded, and 10 were denied due to German capture. There were no new Soviet cadres, and the one left over from last turn was not destroyed. This was the last mud phase turn. The Germans will get to launch a last chance offensive, starting next turn. Note that the first of the shock armies has arrived from the Far East (although it’s still stuck in Siberia). They’ll be important when the blizzard phase hits.




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Turn 21 - 8/20/2008 12:16:50 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 21


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 21. Note that the mud phase is over, both in terms of the shock penalties (except for the Germans, who now have a 5% penalty left) and in terms of the new frozen hexes. Let’s call this the frost phase. It will last four turns, after which will begin what we’ll call the blizzard phase.

Leningrad was captured this turn. Since its supply point had been withdrawn on turn 16, its defense strength had dropped from 93 + 14 support, to 7 + 2 support. It fell without inflicting a single loss on the Germans. The loss of the Leningrad manpower center reduced Soviet manpower by 2.75%. Both Leningrad factories were destroyed. This is a huge VP bonanza and a big hit to Soviet production. In fact, the VP level dropped into the draw category for the first time. If that wasn’t enough, the Axis now get a supply point in Leningrad, too! This models delivery of supply via the Baltic to the port of Leningrad.

Note that Leningrad, by House Rule #5, must be garrisoned by a corps. A Finnish corps is the best choice for that and is in place to fill this role. Note that its “RES” part must be there as well, to satisfy the rule.

With Leningrad captured a lot of Axis force was released for other tasks – far more than necessary to defend this sector. There’s little time left to shift them much further south, so they will be used to conduct an offensive in this sector. While there are few VPs in the area, a real rupture could threaten Moscow, forcing the Soviets to devote precious reinforcements to this sector. That would help the offensives in the other sectors.




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RE: Turn 21 - 8/20/2008 12:19:25 AM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 21. Note that I decided to abandon any further offensive operations in this sector. There were too few VPs in the immediate area, and this allowed me to shift significant forces to help with the stalled Ukrainian offensive, where there are plentiful VPs. Note that this will leave Voronezh in a somewhat vulnerable position, and the Soviets may retake it in the blizzard phase. For that reason, I’m not repairing the bridge in the hex.




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RE: Turn 21 - 8/20/2008 12:23:27 AM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 21. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Stalino and Krasnodar were captured, pocketing the last of the 44th Army and 56th Army. And the last remaining component of the 22nd Army was pocketed. Two more manpower centers were captured (Stalino & Krasnodar – reducing Soviet manpower by 1.87% & 1.86%. The new grand total reduction is 2.75% + 1.87% + 1.86% + 23.48 % = 29.96%). The TO to release the Rostov factory was exercised and, by its destruction, the Leningrad 1 factory was shut down as well (increasing the reduction of Soviet production to 26.38%). Note that the capture of the Majkop oil field has increased Axis supplies by 2.

The Soviets had some chance of relieving the pocketed units via attacks, but I chose not to attempt them. The pocketed units are in decent supply and in fortified deployment, so they will delay the Axis offensives better if left in that state. The Soviets only have to hold out for three more turns.

Of the 32 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 15 were manually disbanded, 8 were auto-disbanded, 8 were denied due to German capture, and one was destroyed in combat. There were two new Soviet cadres, and both of those, plus the one left over from last turn, were destroyed.




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Turn 22 - 8/20/2008 12:27:37 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 22


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 22. The Germans began a pincer movement against the forward Soviet armies jutting out towards Lagoda. In response, the Soviets have attempted to extricate those armies, leaving small rear guards. They lost their fortified status by doing so, but that’s better than leaving them to be pocketed. If they can be extricated, that will save any need to plug a breach with reinforcements that could be better used elsewhere.

Note that the Finnish combat units are ski-capable. The icon for this is only displayed if the hex has snow in it.




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RE: Turn 22 - 8/20/2008 12:32:05 AM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 22. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. (The AGC screenshot will be skipped due to inaction). Note that the Hungarian expeditionary force was withdrawn this turn.

Note that the three pockets of Soviet units have been reduced or eliminated, but they delayed the Axis a bit. The Axis still punched forwards enough to require the Soviets to backpedal a bit to extricate some exposed armies. But the Soviet front before Rostov is becoming very strong. The next turn, while the Soviet armies are still short of fortified deployment, may be the last chance for the Axis to break the defense enough to get to Rostov. But there is still a weak flank on the northern end that may still get rolled up – if only there is time for it to play out.

Note that the Axis push to the far south can be ignored by the Soviets, since if they go any further southeast, the Caucasus Reserve will be released. (The trip line is 14 hexes from Baku).

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 10 were manually disbanded, 7 were auto-disbanded, and 16 were denied due to German capture. The Atlantic Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There was one new Soviet cadre, and it was destroyed. The Rostov factory was successfully moved to safety in Siberia.




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Turn 23 - 8/20/2008 12:36:18 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 23


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 23. The German pincer movement started last turn was completed this turn, destroying the Soviet forces that had been holding the escape path open and forming a tight pocket of trapped armies. The trapped armies can’t escape due to the size of the German force they would have to disengage from. This will create a problem for the Soviets in this sector that, due to the threat to Moscow & other points between, may hinder any counteroffensive plans that they may have been forming in the south. That was what the Axis were hoping for.




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RE: Turn 23 - 8/20/2008 12:40:24 AM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
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Status: offline 		The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 23. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. (The AGC screenshot will again be skipped due to inaction).

The weak flank on the northern end has been somewhat rolled up. And Vorosilovgrad was captured. Elsewhere, the Axis pushed up to the line of Soviet armies defending Rostov, but decided not to attack – the Axis have to start thinking about going onto the defensive, anticipating the blizzard phase that’s coming. Note that the offensive out of Krasnodar has made that move already and started defensive preparations. But there may still be more to come on that weak northern flank. Stay tuned.

One more manpower center was captured (Vorosilovgrad – reducing Soviet manpower by 1.08%. The new grand total reduction is 1.08% + 29.96 % = 31.04%). Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 13 were manually disbanded, 7 were auto-disbanded, and 13 were denied due to German capture. The Pacific Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There were no new Soviet cadres.





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Turn 24 - 8/20/2008 12:44:37 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 24


The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 24. The pocketed Soviet forces have been destroyed, and the Germans even pushed a bit further. This created a real problem for the Soviets. In fact, the 2nd Shock Army has had to be sent here, rather than be sent to any potential offensive site. That’s just what the Germans needed to happen.




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