BShaftoe
Posts: 77
Joined: 6/22/2005
From: Oviedo, North of Spain
Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: n01487477
Ship repair estimations are a bit impossible IMO, but I'll look into it. aircraft R&D totally impossible ... unless someone can convince me otherwise.
First of all, let me say I'm sorry if at some point I seem a kid asking for this or that. I'm also a computer-related worker, and I know that feeling of "you could do it by yourself and stop asking like it was free". ;)
The thing about airplanes, I agree with you because it depends on % for each 100 "prototype" planes built, and well, all that stuff. It's quite hard to implement an estimation reliable enough (but I'm convinced that given enough data, some statistics could be made, and some estimations could be made :))
But with ship repairs I think it's easy, and hey, it wouldn't be rock solid, but maybe good enough to give you an overall idea of when you're going to get back that damaged CV that could decide your game.
My idea is, once you know you have a damaged ship (let's define a damaged ship as a ship with 10 or more points of sys damage), you inspect its sys points damage history back, make averages of the days needed for every sys point repairing, and then just multiply. The reason to do this is because I think there's three possible phases for a damaged ship (well, once you know it's not going to sunk unless attacked again, and of course, in general terms).
1. Repairs at high sea
2. Repairs at a port withouth ship repairing yard.
3. Repairs at a port with that yard
Usually you begin with 1, just after the attack, then 2 (in order to lose all that Fires and Flt damage points), and then, finally, 3, in order to hurry the process.
So, actually:
1. You check back the ships location story in order to know in which phase is the ship (usually the progression will be 1->2->1->3 until repaired), and in which day the ship entered the current state.
2. Then, you go from that day to the current one, checking the number of days needed for each Sys point repaired (the first one could have taken three days, the second one four, etc...), and make an average. IF the current days from the last Sys point repaired are HIGHER than the average, you update the average with this number of days from previous "repair" (the last point is taking longer to repair, and this affects the estimation). This average, and the number of points in which it's based upon, can be stored in the DB for further estimations.
3. Multiply the resulting average for the number of Sys points remaining, and you have rough estimation (a rough one, for sure, but better than nothing).
4. Ok, it's not very reliable, but in the end, it can be useful for giving you an idea of the month you'll have the ship.
5. Also, since it could be (I'm not entirely sure), that the closer you are to 0 sys damage, the faster you repair it, you could also restrict the average to the last 5 or 10 "samples".
In the end I suppose this is what everybody does: having it done automatically would be fine.
As I say, maybe this is too poor, but I think it's not that a bad idea. I'm sure that this "estimation algorithm" can be object of lot of criticisms (and maybe well deserved).
< Message edited by BShaftoe -- 9/30/2008 8:06:25 PM >
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Printable Version
RE: WitPTracker 1.3.1 - 
would be which type of formation require that device, and in what numbers. 
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