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RE: Wake wake! - 1/11/2009 1:21:25 PM   
tocaff


Posts: 4781
Joined: 10/12/2006
From: USA now in Brasil
Status: offline 		I'm in agreement with JeffK about hitting hard with everything you've got instead of getting stuck in protracted ops. 

You've repeatedly stated your dismay at the loss of mobility of the USN because of the Wake op.  You need Wake to secure supply lines and just maybe with increased recon, more CVs in the area and some luck if the KB come calling again on your lines of communication you can engage & defeat the IJN's threat to the security of the sea lanes.

Supplies are the key to your fight against Japan to keep the strategic bombing going.  Without that bombing forces defending Japan can shift to other areas.  Use the strategic initiative that you hold and make John react to you, because he can't let you do whatever you want without eventually contesting it.  Like I said earlier a trap can work if the bait looks juicy enough and you manage to keep tabs on the where abouts of the KB.

Just the ramblings of a poor WITP player.


_____________________________

Todd

I never thought that doing an AAR would be so time consuming and difficult.
www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2080768

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 841
RE: Wake wake! - 1/11/2009 9:46:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Vettim, I did go back and read that last post of yours; indeed, your observations were right on.

Jeff, strategic bombing is the primary focus of the Allied war effort and will be for the remainder of the game. That means I have to keep Sikhalin Island secure and fully supplied, so that ties up some of my assets (carriers and combat ships); but that's a "tie" well worth it.  The strategic bombing intensity has been increasing over the past few weeks with more B-29s available.  The Allies now have 5,225 strategic point, with about 1700 of those coming in the past week or so.

I really don't think I needed Wake to secure my supply/communication line between Eniwetok and Hawaii.  As long as I had a big carrier force there from time to time to escort large supply convoys, I would have been fine and could have sent those carriers south into the Solomons area to cover some invasions in that region; but no more.  However, now that I've invested in taking Wake I'll see things through.  Eventually I'll take the island, and then the supply line will not need such careful attention.

Of course there's always a chance that either one of us will make a mistake and blunder into a one-sided carrier battle.  I'll be awfully cautious with my carriers, and I hope John will be emboldened by his success into taking a risk that "bites" him.

What a great game WitP is!

(in reply to tocaff)
Post #: 842
RE: Wake wake! - 1/12/2009 6:45:55 AM   
Heeward


Posts: 343
Joined: 1/27/2003
From: Lacey Washington
Status: offline 		But you can not afford to divert you carrier forces to escort convoys!!!

Your carrier forces need to be forcing John either into decisive or attritional combat - in either case you come out ahead. Using them (and capitol ship surface task to escort convoys / support bases on a routine basis does advance your agenda of scoring victory points!

How more successful would your wake invasion been if you had 4 to 6 more BB's bombarding?
Do you have additional troop reserves / supply reserves available to sustain your invasion or even finish it off sooner?

_____________________________

The Wake

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 843
RE: Wake wake! - 1/12/2009 6:59:00 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Heeward

But you can not afford to divert you carrier forces to escort convoys!!!

Your carrier forces need to be forcing John either into decisive or attritional combat - in either case you come out ahead. Using them (and capitol ship surface task to escort convoys / support bases on a routine basis does advance your agenda of scoring victory points!



Thats what CVE were built for....

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Heeward)
Post #: 844
RE: Wake wake! - 1/12/2009 3:11:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/9/44 to 6/12/44
 
CenPac:  The Allies have departed for now, leaving behind 100,000 plus troops that are "un-disrupting" each turn.  The Allied AV is closing in on 600 - it had fallen to 350 immediatley following back-to-back shock attacks.  The Japs appear to be reinforcing from the air.  The Allies are gathering reinforcements from here and there, but these won't arrive for quite some time.  The carriers, combat ships, and some transports are heading to Eniwetok and will arrive in a day or two.  The transports having supplies and the ships include an MLE and ML.  The carriers will remain here a few days to see what happens and then will likely return to Midway to be in a more central location for the next moves.  After its big raid the KB headed to Marcus.  On the 12th, a sub reported a TF with CV Unryu 300 miles south of Marcus on a bearing for Saipan.  Now that John has a big carrier force in the Pacific I don't expect him to sit idle. I had rated a raid into NoPac as likely, but that's apparently not in his short term plans.  Operations towards Eniwetok or Iwo are possible.  Iwo presents an interesting situation:  it is the most isolated of the American bases and is a pain in the rear for John since 4EB from Iwo are hitting Japan.  He could mount a humongous invasion to overwhelm Iwo, but he has a problem (I think).  John is very low on BBs - Hiei might be available now, but that's his only possibility.  Iwo is protected by BBs Indiana and South Dakota plus 30,000 mines, plus to divisions and other troops with an AV of 1300 and nine forts.  It would be a battle!

NoPac:   B-24s and B-17s raided Nagoya and Aomori on the 10th.  The next day, 126 B-29s hit Niigata, 65 PBY Liberators hit Akita, and 35 B-24 and 30 B-17 hit Aomori.  As of the 11th, the Allies have 5,228 strategic points.  P-47Ds are coming online.  They have a range of 10 hexes and can therefore serve as 4EB escorts from either Iwo or Sikhalin Island.  P-38Ls are beginning to replace the P-38Js (one new 72-plane squadron is based at Toyohara).

Malaya:  Quiet here as the Allies continue to marshall forces for the next move.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 845
RE: Wake wake! - 1/12/2009 4:20:12 PM   
castor troy


Posts: 14330
Joined: 8/23/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline 		30.000 mines at Iwo? Lol, that´s the biggest number of mines I´ve heard of in WITP!

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Post #: 846
RE: Wake wake! - 1/12/2009 5:05:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think the maximum number permitted by the game is 33,000.  At that level, you lose so many mines per day to regular attrition that's it's tough to hold the number.  I have an ML and DM at Iwo that have been working overtime.  Since my previous post I have really been mulling over Iwo's security.  I think if I were John I would be willing to do just about anything to eradicate Iwo (actually, he'd probably prefer to eradicate Sikhalin Island, but I don't think that's remotely possible).

(in reply to castor troy)
Post #: 847
A Day in the Strategic Bombing Campaign - 1/12/2009 5:37:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Allied bombers from Sikhalin Island and Iwo Jima regularly hit strategic targets in Japan, sometimes joined by B-29s from China.  This campaign began early in 1944 but has really picked up in the past six weeks as B-29s came into play.  This has involved alot of guesswork and strategy to try to outwit my opponent, so here's an example of the Allied planning for a big raid on June 14, 1944 (I just sent this turn to John, so I don't know how it will turn out; I'll update with the results later).

Situation:  Since Hokkaido and Northern Honshu are within range of Allied fighters, John has essentially given up on defending the bases from about Aomori northwards.  These are within easy range of bombers from Sikhalin Island, so they have been worked over reguarly, with Sapporo all but destroyed and Hakodate and Aomori well on the way.  When the Sikhalin-based bombers hit these targets, the Iwo bombers either take a breather or hit another target.  Sometimes bombers from the two island combine to hit targets, mainly Tokyo and the aicraft factories at Gumma.  Infrequently I hit a more isolated target.

Most Recent Raids:  The Allies have most recently hit Niigata, Aomori, and Hakodate.

June 14, 1944 Raid:  This time the Allies will try Nagasaki, hoping to catch John concentrating elsewhere, which would result in less losses to the Allies and hopefully reinforce the idea that John can't concentrate his fighters on just a few prime targets.  B-29s from Shikuka (Sikhalin Island) and Changsha (China) will be joined by B-17s and B-24s from Iwo Jima.  The Iwo groups will be accompanied by P-38Js, perhaps as many as 70.  The bombers will divide their attention between resources and port facilities.  While this is going on, the other 4EB from Sikhalin Island (B-17s, B-24s, and PBY Liberators that don't have the range to reach Nagasaki) will hit Sendai's resources.  P-38Js will sweep ahead of the raid, which will be accompanied by as many as 70 P-38Ls.

Strategic Bombing Emphasis:  The emphasis is and always has been resources plus aircraft factories.  But the Allies have already reduced resources to such an extent in the northern half of the Home Islands that they are now turning to other targets including Oil, Heavy Industry, and shipbuilding and ship repair facilities.  As the Allies finish up working over the northern bases, it become more difficult to hit the Central bases due to lack of fighter protection.  But with P-51s to arrive soon, plus P-47Ds now coming into play, that will increase the escort protection.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 848
Results of Nagasaki Raid - 1/12/2009 8:32:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John just returned the turn file for June 14, 1944 and I "guessed right" that Nagasaki wouldn't be heavily defended.  The results of the raid, which involved hundreds of 4EB from China, Iwo Jima, and Sikhalin Island:

1)  Iwo's compliment was the first to arrive, with 65 P-38Js, 100 B-24s, and 22 B-17Gs faced a CAP of 38 Zeke, 27 Tojo, and 1 Rufe.  In the battle between fighters, the Japs lost 12 Zeke, 14 Tojo, and a Rufe while the Allies lost just a single P-38 and then two B-24s.  The bombers were targeting Repair Shipyard, Naval Shipyard, and Frank Aircraft Factory and scored against the first two, reducing the Naval Shipytard from 293 (0) to 242 (51), and reducing the Frank Factory from 20 (19) to 13 (26).

2)  Next came 38 B-29s from Changsha facingt 14 Tojo and 21 Zeke, which managed to destroy one of the big bombers.  The Superforts targeted the port facilities and hit paydirt:  CA Mogami 9 hits "heavy damage"; CA Aoba 3 hits "on fire"; ML Hoho 1 hit "on fire"; AR Liverpool Maru 1 hit "on fire"; and AR Shiganoura Maru 2 hits.

3)  Only 21 B-29s sortied from Shikuka (the other 100 decided to take the day off), destroyed 1 Tojo, and didn't seem to score any hits (they had been assigned to resources and port facilities).

4)  The shorter-legged bombers from Shikuka hit Sendai's Resources:  51 PBY Liberators, 30 B-17Gs and 34 B-24Gs preceded by 20 P-38s making a fighter sweep (losing 5 while the Japs lost 7 Tony, 2 Zeke, and 3 Jack).  The bombers were escorted by 21 P-38s which tangled with the fighter CAP, 11 P-38s and 2 PBYs going down to 1 Jack, 4 Zeke, and 2 Tony for the Allies.  The bombers scored 21 Resource hits.

5)  Far to the South, the Japs had been using Camranh Bay's airfield to raid Hue, so the Allies scheduled a big raid from Rangoon:  34 B-29, 3 B-17, 20 Liberator III, and 9 B-24s faced 12 George and 11 Zeke.  The Allies lost 1 B-29 and destroyed 17 aircraft on the ground.

Primarily as a result of these raids, the Japs lost 74 aircraft on the day (51 a2a, 17 field, 6 ops) to 43 for the Allies (33 a2a, 4 flak, 6 ops).

The Allies now have 5,484 Strategic Bombing Points.

For the first time, the point spread dropped below 2,000.  The Japs now lead 53,591 to 51,658.

This was just a single day in the Strategic Bombing campaign.  The Allies were fortunate to guess right and hit a lightly defended target.  Some days John will guess right.  But the Strategic Bombing is having a huge impact in the game and I think John has to come up with something to address it.  His CAP isn't sufficient, it appears, so I think he has to hit either Iwo or Sikhalin Island; I'm guessing the former.

This also illustrates why the entire Allied strategy focused on getting these bases in the first place, and now focuses on protecting them.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 849
Suspicious Minds - 1/12/2009 9:41:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If you've been following recent posts, you'll have noted my mounting concern about Iwo Jima.  In part, this was because it is such a great platform for Allied strategic bombing and is also isolated and therefore seemingly vulnerable, but on a subconcious level the increased Jap attention with some recon flights over Iwo, Tori Shima, and Chichi Jima for the past weeks has also registered.  Alarm bells really went off on the June 15 turn when hundreds of Helen hit the airfield at Tori Shima.  I have this sudden and overwhelming conviction that the Japs are coming, and sooner rather than later.

Tori and Chichi are relatively lightly guarded and so are very vulnerable, but Iwo is heavily guarded and it would be interesting to see what would happen if the Japs invaded.  The carriers are Eniwetok are scheduled to leave tonight; originally they were to make directly for Midway passing just east of Wake; but I think I'll route them just west of Wake so that they'll be in a little better position to move toward Iwo should the need arise.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 850
RE: Suspicious Minds - 1/12/2009 11:09:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/13/44 to 6/16/44
 
Do you ever get that feeling that something big is about to happen in your game?  I have that feeling now, primarily dealing with Iwo Jima.  It would suit me if I'm wrong - that things would remain blissfully quiet there.  There were no sudden appearances of a massive Jap armada on the 16th, though, a peaceful interlude I hope will continue a few more days.

NoPac:  The Allied 4EB on Sikhalin Island rested a few days after the big raid on Nagasaki, and then I threw the entire compliment at Aomori's resources on the 16th.  I expected little opposition, so I set my 136 B-29, 46 B-24, 53 PBY Liberators, and 38 B-17Gs at low altitude (9,000 feet) for accuracy and they were accompanied by 26 P-38Js.  There was no CAP and the bombers wiped out 210 resources.  That's a massive hit for a single day.

Aleutians:  Troops rested after seizing Attu Island and mopping up resistance on Paramushiro Jima, and also began prepping for Amchitka Island, one of three remaining Jap bases in the Aleutians.   This was going on as the KB hit my transports between Wake and Midway.  Worried that John might then raid into NoPac and hit my shipping in the Aleutians, I sent my Shikuka carriers east to cover the invasion of Amchitka.  As John's carriers retired to Marcus and then Saipan, it became clear that the Amchitka force would be safe, and in response to my growing concerns about Iwo I sent those carriers on a southerly heading starting on June 15.  They'll need a few more days to get within shooting range if a Jap armada threatens Iwo/Tori/Chichi, but the cavalry is on the way.  The Amchitka invasion began on the 16th, with a bombardment by a small combat TF followed by APs unloading a regiment; another regiment and an Army division will begin unloading tomorrow.  The defense appears to be a hodgepodge of weak baseforces and remnant infantry.  I don't expect them to hold out long.

CenPac:  The U.S. carriers left Eniwetok yesterday evening on a NNW bearing.  As best I can tell they somehow evaded detection by Japanese recon from Marcus and Truk.  This doesn't hardly seem possible and, even if true, they should be picked up tomorrow under clear skies.  However, they are now on the way and can also make for Iwo should the need arise.  Even if a Japanese armada doesn't arrive at Iwo, I may allow both carrier groups to rendezvous there for a little while just to mix up the deck a bit.  There is a bit of a risk in moving them so far from Eniwetok, but Iwo is more important.  Eniwetok is protected by a combat TF anchored by BB Richelieu and CA Salt Lake City, mines, two Army divisions, and a fair amount of aircraft. Iwo is close enough to NoPac to handle any threat to Sikhalin Island (which is heavily garrisoned, protected by five BBs, and occupied by a heck of alot of troops).

Malaya:  The Allies are bombing Taiping on a daily basis now and troops are prepping for that base, which is held by 50,000 Japanese troops.  Some of my troops are now 40% prepped, but others are just at 10%.

Points:  Following the big raid on Aomori, the spread dropped and the countdown to drawing even is on:  Japs 53,612 to Allies 52,018. 

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/12/2009 11:12:42 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 851
RE: Suspicious Minds - 1/13/2009 2:48:42 AM   
Heeward


Posts: 343
Joined: 1/27/2003
From: Lacey Washington
Status: offline
quote:


quote:

ORIGINAL: Heeward

But you can not afford to divert you carrier forces to escort convoys!!!

Your carrier forces need to be forcing John either into decisive or attritional combat - in either case you come out ahead. Using them (and capitol ship surface task to escort convoys / support bases on a routine basis does advance your agenda of scoring victory points!



Thats what CVE were built for....



Except when you run into Johns multiple carrier task forces commerce radiing - and then they are victory points.

_____________________________

The Wake

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 852
RE: Suspicious Minds - 1/13/2009 3:36:41 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		But they might take out a lump of IJN pilots too, if you are lucky, and the die rolls your way, maybe.

Aldso their TBF/TBM might supress japanese subs as well.


< Message edited by JeffK -- 1/13/2009 3:37:01 AM >

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Post #: 853
RE: Suspicious Minds - 1/13/2009 2:58:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/17/44 and 6/18/44
 
CenPac:  Still no "signs" of a vast Jap armada approaching the Iwo islands complex, which is good news.  The Japanese continue to recon each of the islands and massed waves of bombers are hitting Tori Shima.  The U.S. carrier group from NoPac is 1320 miles north of Iwo and closing as quickly as possible, so the window for the Japs to strike without intervention by American carriers is fast closing.  A number of fuel and supply convoys are also moving toward Iwo from Midway, and the carriers will remain in the area long enough to make sure they arrive safely.  Iwo has supplies, but not enough to meet the needs of Tori and Chichi and I want that rectified and the defenses strengthened before the carriers depart.  Just in case a Jap armada is on the way, I've set Iwo's bombers to naval strike and they won't be doing any strategic bombing until the carriers arrive and the coast is clear. 

NoPac:  B-24s from Toyohara hit Sapporo's resources every day now.  Tomorrow, a massed raid from Shikuka will hit Aomori's resources, weather permitting.  Another division will begin landing at Amchitka tomorrow.  The first deliberate attack indicated the going might be a bit tougher than expected.  The Japs are behind 7 forts and the attack was a 0:1, though the Japs suffered 3x casualties (180 to 60).  On the 17th, six Frances sortied from the airfield and put a TT each into CA Indianapolis and a DE.

Wake Island:  Farther east, the second American carrier group moved west of Wake without any interference by Japanese carriers.  John transferred some Jills to Wake and they sortied, but 29 of 33 were shot down by the CAP (well over 200 Hellcats) and none got through to launch.  With the NoPac carriers closing on Iwo, I'm not quite as anxious to send the east group that way, so they're going to pause for at least a day at Wake, with a bombardment TF hitting the island.  At Eniwetok, the ML is doing good work - the atoll has more than 3,000 mines already.

Malaya:  The status quo continues as the Allies bomb Taiping daily.  Georgetown is 75% to level seven airfield, and hitting that mark will be the beginning of a sustained strategic bombing campaign on Palembang, plus hits on the resources and port facilities at Singapore.  B-29s and Liberator IIIs at Georgetown will be the primary force in this campaign.  In about a month, I don't think Singapore will be tenable any longer for the Japs.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/13/2009 2:59:00 PM >

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 854
Like Chancellorsville? - 1/13/2009 11:03:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/19/44 and 6/20/44
 
CenPac:  Still no sign of a Japanese armada approaching Iwo Jima.  The NoPac American carriers are a little over 700 miles NE of Iwo and have slowed a bit to allow several transport convoys from Midway to join.  The CenPac American carriers are north of Wake and after hanging around there for two days to protect the bombardment TF that hit that island will no move toward Midway.  So the American forces are sizeable but divided, just like the Union Army leading up to Chancellorsville.  Will John pull a Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson maneuver and attack one flank?  I tweaked CAP percentages a bit this turn.  By tomorrow, I think the NoPac carriers will be close enough to Iwo to prevent John from trying anything there unless he tries one of those "bring everything including the kitchen sink and disregard the massive losses" invasions like I did at Hokkaido, but the problem for John there is that Iwo is much more strongly defended than the Hokkaido beaches were.   For several days I set my Iwo 4EB on naval attack, but on the 20th decided to try a port attack on Saipan.  The range of 11 was the max for my P-38 escorts, but it worked fine - 102 B-24, 21 B-17, and 56 P-38 came in against a CAP of 48 mixed fighters; the Japs lost 26 to 2 for the Allies; the bombers scored 5 hits on CL Nagaro, 6 on CA Furutaka, 3 on CL Oi, 7 on CL Noshiro, and one each on two DDs.  John said I missed his carriers by two days, but I didn't think they were there and I assume if they were a much stouter CAP would have limited my success and increased my losses.

NoPac:   Another big 4EB strike on Aomori from Shikuka destroys 160 Resource Points.  The Japs really don't have that many big resource centers and three of them (all in the north) are now in bad shape (Sapporo, Aomori, and Sendai).  There are about two in the central section of the country (Tokyo and I think Nagoya), and another three or so in the south.  These will get more attention when I'm able to use my Iwo 4EB on strategic missions again (as soon as I have addressed the perceived threat to that island).  A second Army division is landing at Amchitka Island and I'll likely try another attack day after tomorrow.

Australia:  Quiet here at the moment.

Malaya:  Quiet here too as troops prep and engineers rush to complete the improvements of Georgetown's airfield to level seven (it's 80% there).

China:  I still worry about John trying something on a massive scale here, but no signs of activity right now.  Every base in China is garrisoned by infantry, so I'm not worried about a "paratroop attack followed by massive airlift" operation.  The B-29s at Changsha hit Nagasaki on the 20th, scoring three hits on BB Hiei, 1 on an AP, and 1 on CL Yahogi. 

Battleships:  Japan only has three left; Hiei, which was torpedoed and nearly sank months ago is probably close to ready or ready to sail.  Her position at Nagasaki would be in line with a Japanese move on Iwo, so that's another piece of evidence that adds to my worries.  The other two BBs, Ise and Hyuga, were recently hit hard near Malacca.  I know Ise is out of commission for a long time, and Hyuga should be at least 30% damaged, so I doubt either of them would participate in any naval action.  The Americans have five BBs at Shikuka (New Jersey and four old ones), two at Iwo (Indiana and South Dakota), one with the NoPac carriers (Iowa), one with the CenPac carriers (Massachusetts), one at Eniwetok (Richelieu) and one at San Francisco (Washington).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 855
RE: Like Chancellorsville? - 1/14/2009 1:37:52 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I should also note that Jap reconnaissance picked up the carrier TF (it's about 11 hexes ENE of Tokyo).  I don't think John got good info about the makeup of the TF, but I'm sure he suspects.  So, now John knows something's closing from the north, probably carriers.  If he actually has intentions to hit Iwo Jima this will persuade him to either speed things up or call things off.

It has also occurred to me that John set this up as a diversion to draw my forces to Iwo so that he could hit either Sikhalin Island (the more likely) or Eniwetok (less likely).  I don't know!  What should I do!  I love this game!

P.S.  I'm confident Sikhalin Island can protect itself long enough for carriers to return (but, then, Titanic's builders were sure she could stay afloat long enough after a disaster so that her lifeboats could ferry passengers and crew to rescue vessels, which is why Titanic didn't carry enough boats to carry the entire load).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 856
RE: Like Chancellorsville? - 1/14/2009 1:40:19 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline
quote:

P.S. I'm confident Sikhalin Island can protect itself long enough for carriers to return (but, then, Titanic's builders were sure she could stay afloat long enough after a disaster so that her lifeboats could ferry passengers and crew to rescue vessels, which is why Titanic didn't carry enough boats to carry the entire load).


You mentioned earlier that you felt tied down with the invasion of Wake. Why do you feel the need to keep carriers here to protect those bases?? He has few operational BB and probably few CA that he could use to even try to hit the base with a bombardment TF. You can easily place your 4e bombers on Naval Attack with about 10 or 20% search in between strategic bombing. It just seems that you feel he can hurt you up here.

With the last few weeks of game play, it looks like you need to broaden your shoulder in the Central Pacific. I would imagine that you have plenty of troops not involved in combat right now. How about a look at taking Canton, Baker, Tarawa, and Naura to seal off the Gilberts and Marshalls?? Then a quick attack into the Marshalls to secure bases. Next would be a strike down to the SW to reconnect with Australia.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 857
RE: Like Chancellorsville? - 1/14/2009 2:12:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hey, NY.

The Sikhalin Island bases are the key to victory for the Allies, so I'm taking no chances there.  I could park every ship in a major port and never mount another invasion anywhere on the map and still win the game by bombing Japan from Toyohara and Shikuka.  The only way John can threaten those bases is to mirror image what I did when I invaded - load every transport he has with ten or fifteen divisions and then just try to overwhelm the defenses no matter the cost.  With the Allied LBA and battleships there, I doubt even that would work, but I don't even want to risk that.  So a large contingent of my carriers will remain close enough to sprint back to Sikhalin if the need should arise.  When the winter months come I won't need them there, so from December through February my carriers will be totally free.

With troops tied up at Wake I can't afford to undertake another invasion.  I'm mulling over whether to reinforce Wake (likely) or possibly to withdraw my troops so that I can regain my mobility and head elsewhere. 

My "shoulder' is rather exposed to enemy raids, but it doesn't matter this late in the game - the Marshalls, Carolines, Societies, Fiji, and Pago Pago aren't important to the Allies.  I already have what the Allies need - big air bases close to Japan.  The war will be won there - in Japan, on Sikhalin Island, and at Iwo Jima.  John has to come after Sikhalin and/or Iwo if he wants a chance to win or really hurt the Allies.  I think he knows that too after the recent step-up in strategic bombing.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 858
Mutual Ambushes go Awry - 1/14/2009 6:05:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Iwo Jima on 6/21/44 and 6/22/44
 
The NoPac carriers continued steaming SW toward Iwo Jima, ending the turn perhaps 600 miles NE of the island; with still no signs of a Japanese armada, I come up with a plan to hit Tokyo, which has been sending waves of Helens against Tori Shima.  All 4EB on Iwo are set to hit the Tokyo airfields with 70 P-38s to serve as escort; the three big B-29 squadrons at Shikuka are divided, with some to hit Tokyo's airfields and others her Resources (other LBA at Shikuka, Toyohara, and Changsha are set to hit resources at Toyama and Aomori).

John just sent me the combat report for 6/22/44 and it turns out that he was springing an ambush on Iwo at the same time:  his land-based bombers were set to hit Iwo's airfield and port, with the KB also sending in a massive strike.  But some of the scheduled strikes go awry for both sides, as you'll soon see.

1)  Allied Strategic and Airbase Raid vs. Tokyo:  None of the aircraft fly - not one.  All those 4EB and P-38s from Iwo and the B-29s at Shikuka sit at home (the lesser raids vs. Toyama and Aomori score a few hits).

2)  Jap LBA Strike vs. Iwo:  The first wave of bombers comes in to find a CAP totally devoid of P-38s, but the two squadrons of Corsairs and Hellcats put up a good fight, downing 46 aircraft while the Japanese bombers destroy 6 Allied aircraft and do minimal damage to the field.  A second wave of LBA comes in to against just a few fighters and the damage is more extensive - the Japs lose 28 aircraft, the Allies 8, a few more hits to the airfield, and four torpedo hits against CVE Corregidor, which had been parked at Iwo for nearly a year after suffering moderate damage during the invasion.

3)  Jap Carrier Air Strike vs Iwo:  The KB fails to launch to John's utter chagrine.

Results:  I don't have the turn file yet, so I don't know if these strikes are a prelude to an invasion.  But it appears that John didn't succeed in shutting down the airfield, and with the P-38s on CAP tomorrow it will be much harder for John to hit the base.  Also, the NoPac carriers should be much closer, and I'll now send the CenPac carriers scooting that way (plus five CVEs parked at Midway).  I think - but I'm not positive yet - that the cavalry (my carriers) are arriving just in time.  My instincts about Iwo were on target, but I'm not sure yet what's going to happen.  If this is a raid rather than an invasion, though, I think John will now have to pull back.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/14/2009 6:13:32 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 859
RE: Mutual Ambushes go Awry - 1/14/2009 7:01:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John has asked for a re-do of the turn.  It seems he set his KB bombers at a certain range limit (say five hexes) but his carriers stopped six hexes from Iwo due to an unexpected delay by one TF (I guess the lead TF) to refuel.

I'm surprised John would ask for a re-do as this seems to fall into one of those unexpected things that happen in war that mess up the "best laid plans."  In my reply, I reminded him that during my Wotje invasion back in 1942 I had two carriers that failed to fly CAP that were consequently sunk at extreme range by a few Bettys, but that I had refused a do-over.  Those kinds of things happen.

Then he said he wanted to be able to re-set the range of his aircraft, but that I shouldn't do anything different. 

I've probably irritated John in stating my case, but I just don't think a re-do is warranted.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 860
RE: Mutual Ambushes go Awry - 1/14/2009 8:04:48 PM   
NormS3


Posts: 521
Joined: 12/10/2007
From: Wild and Wonderful WV, just don't drink the water
Status: offline 		It's been a while since I commented, but I feel that you are correct to remind John about the Wotje incident. These things happen. If you redo the turn, you should be able to change settings as well.

I admit I was really looking forward to seeing what was going to happen (I read both ARs but have only commented in yours, don't want to contaminate your fantastic game), it's too bad that nothing flew, almost like Lee waiting for Ewell.

Both of you have fought an exhausting game, it wears me out just following it. I can not imagine what it is doing to you both.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 861
RE: Mutual Ambushes go Awry - 1/14/2009 8:20:28 PM   
castor troy


Posts: 14330
Joined: 8/23/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John has asked for a re-do of the turn.  It seems he set his KB bombers at a certain range limit (say five hexes) but his carriers stopped six hexes from Iwo due to an unexpected delay by one TF (I guess the lead TF) to refuel.

I'm surprised John would ask for a re-do as this seems to fall into one of those unexpected things that happen in war that mess up the "best laid plans."  In my reply, I reminded him that during my Wotje invasion back in 1942 I had two carriers that failed to fly CAP that were consequently sunk at extreme range by a few Bettys, but that I had refused a do-over.  Those kinds of things happen.

Then he said he wanted to be able to re-set the range of his aircraft, but that I shouldn't do anything different. 

I've probably irritated John in stating my case, but I just don't think a re-do is warranted.



there´s absolutely no reason to redo that turn...

there would have been one with your Cap as it´s a bug when you set your fighters on Cap and 0 (none) appear...

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 862
RE: Mutual Ambushes go Awry - 1/14/2009 8:24:54 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Norm3

It's been a while since I commented, but I feel that you are correct to remind John about the Wotje incident. These things happen. If you redo the turn, you should be able to change settings as well.

I admit I was really looking forward to seeing what was going to happen (I read both ARs but have only commented in yours, don't want to contaminate your fantastic game), it's too bad that nothing flew, almost like Lee waiting for Ewell.

Both of you have fought an exhausting game, it wears me out just following it. I can not imagine what it is doing to you both.


Ditto,

I feel that in WITP, trying to co-ordinate too many TF and Airbases into a single action is fraught with danger. It might explain why IRL operations are "overkill", guarantees something will get throuh.

I suppose John is lucky, half his CV might have attacked and got smashed while your counterattack could have sunk 2-3 CV.

As it is, it appears his Op failed but with minimal loss except to nerves.

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to NormS3)
Post #: 863
RE: Mutual Ambushes go Awry - 1/14/2009 9:26:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Iwo Jima 6/22/44 Cont'd
 
On receiving the turn file I learned that the two big LBA strikes against Iwo came from Pagan and Saipan; the strikes from and against Iwo from and against Tokyo didn't get off the ground because Tokyo was socked in by clouds.

As stated previously, the KB didn't get off any air strike missions.  I suspect John was hoping to hit my combat ships (mainly BBs South Dakota and Indiana) in preparation for an invasion of Iwo.  There suddenly seems to be scattered merchant shiping south of Iwo, plus the KB west of Saipan.

The NoPac carriers were about 420 miles NNE of Iwo and weren't part of the action; but John certainly knows they are coming. 

I really hope John calls it off and I think there's a fair chance he will do so because:

1)  He knows I'll load up Iwo with high-quality fighters flown by high-experience pilots.  Indeed I have - the island now has 210 fighters - about 150 P-38s (60 of these are P-38Ls that will fly LRCAP over my carriers as they move in toward Iwo), the rest a mixture of Corsairs, Hellcats, and P-47D Thunderbolts.

2)  He'll be somewhat apprehensive of LBA from Iwo, though I've only 50 B-24s there now due to stacking limits.

3)  He knows my carriers are nearing and I'm hoping he has a very healthy fear of them.

To be honest, a full-scale Japanese invasion now would have a fair chance of ripping the Allied fleet to shreds.  So that's why I'm hoping John will back down.  A few more days and the CenPac carriers will arrive and at that point I think the crisis is averted.  In addition to the carriers, I need a little time to bring in those supply ships and enhance the defenses of Tori Shima and Chichi Jima, partly through more minelaying and partly by sending a CD unit to Tori (I have one fully prepped for Tori at Iwo Jima).

This is a ticklish situation.  The Allies have a strong force ringed by very strong enemy forces.  If somebody starts shooting, bad things could happen.

More about what's going on elsewhere in another post to follow.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 864
RE: Mutual Ambushes go Awry - 1/14/2009 9:51:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/21/44 and 6/22/44 (Places other than Iwo Jima)

The Iwo situation, which may or may not be over yet, has brought home just how powerful the Japanese remain. John can bring an awful lot of force to bear at any one point and pretty much overwhelm the defenses.  My priorities remain the protection of Sikhalin Island (which I don't think he can overwhelm) and Iwo (which needs alot of protection due to its exposed position).  But this means Ponape, Eniwetok, and the beachhead at Wake are gonna be awfully lonely for awhile.

NoPac:  With American and Jap forces engaged around Iwo and to the south, I will send an MLE and ML to Toyohara by a roundabout way.  This will allow me to mine this most exposed of my Sikahlin Island ports.  Shikuka is already a level 9 port and an ML has laid 5,000 mines.  An Allied deliberate attack at Amchitka Island came off at 4:1 and dropped forts from 7 to 4.  I think this base changes hands tomorrow.  That will leave Dutch Island and Cold Bay in Jap hands, though both seem weaky defended.  I'll probably detail a divisions and one or two RCT to pick them off.  The other division will probably become a reserve force sent to Paramushiro Jima or perhaps Toyohara. 

SoPac:  I've been concealing a major operation in this region for security reasons.  CVs Bennington and Ticonderoga recently arrived at Auckland after a long journey from Panama City.  These are the first American carriers in this region since two were sunk early in 1942.  These carriers are escorting an invasion force to New Caledonia.  I will begin reconning Koumac tomorrow to see if it looks vulnerable.  If not, I'll recon Noumea.  If neither appear vulnerable at this point, I'll back off for now.  I have about 100 B-29s (low-experience pilots though) at Auckland scheduled to strike the Koumac airfield tomorrow.  This operation was on standy until I got confirmation that KB didn't head this way after leaving Saipan.

Malaya:  Georgetown is 86% to level seven airfield.  I've moved two large B-29 squadrons there from Rangoon to rest up in preparation for the sustained strategic bombing effort that will soon begin from this base.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 865
RE: Mutual Ambushes go Awry - 1/15/2009 2:22:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/23/44 and 6/24/44
 
CenPac:  Through a bit of luck and the timely arrival of the cavalry in the form of a carrier TF, the Iwo Jima crisis is at least temporarily averted.  The KB has pulled back toward Palau and the NoPac carriers have taken station one hex north of Iwo, where they'll remain a few days as supply and fuel ships arrive.  The CenPac carriers are refueling west of Midway and north of Marcus.  I'm working on a new plan to allocate carriers.  I think I'll position a large force of CVEs at Iwo, a medium force of CVEs in the Western Aleutians, and the fleet carriers at Midway where they aren't too far from those places nor Wake/Eniwetok.

NoPac:  The Allies have scheduled a big strategic bombing raid on Gumma tonight, with B-24s from Iwo and Toyohara and B-29s from Shikuka set to hit George, Helen, and Jack factories.  The other Shikuka 4EB will hit Akita's resources.  Amchitka Island fell to the Allies on the 24th.

SWPac:  The Bennington/Ticonderoga TF took station just SW of Noumea and found a transport convoy there and put torpedoes into six of them.  I expected John to react by loading up his airfields with Bettys, but I don't think he did.  It would be great if he had decided not to fight for New Caledonia.  My troops are scheduled to land at the dot hex west of Noumea in two days, but I'm reconning Noumea and if it is lightly held may just land there.

Malaya:  Georgetown is 93% to level seven airfield.  The regular bombing of Palembang and Singapore will begin in three or four days.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/15/2009 2:23:44 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 866
WitP Game Balance - 1/15/2009 8:44:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/25/44 and 6/26/44
 
Points:  For the first time the spread fell below 1,000.  The Japs have 54,061 to 53,172 for the Allies.  Strategic bombing accounts for 6,372 of these points as of the 25th (and probably a little over 6,400 after a small raid on Akita's resources the night of the 26th).  Barring something "bad" happening points will draw even in the next week or two. 

WitP Game Balance:   In my previous game the Allies drew even in late January 1944.  Alot went right for the Allies then, whereas in this game John had vastly more experience than I did (at the outset, anyhow) and used his careful planning and aggressive nature to push the Allies to the brink of defeat (Jap auto-victory) at the end of 1942.  So, in effect, the difference in a game in which the Japs kick butt and one in which the Allies kick butt amounts to just five months.  Put another way, John has done very well in this game and yet the Allies still have another year to work on the victory total.  Given the overwhelming might of the Allied forces by late '43 through the end of the game I just don't see any way that the Japs have a chance to win in WitP (at least in this Mod) other than to achieve auto-victory. Game balance would be enhanced by making it possible for the Japs to score points more readily later in the game (don't do it earlier in the game, because then auto victory might be too easy). That would address the game's imbalance without affecting game play or historic accuracy.

SWPac:  The Allies are landing at an unoccupied dot hex (La Foa) west of Noumea, splitting the Japanese garrisons at Koumac (5 units) and Noumea (2 units).  No sign of the Jap air force or navy yet, but the KB is probably only a week to ten days away (up around Pagan).  I wonder if John will decide to give battle here or if he has written of most of SWPac and SoPac at this late date in the game?

CenPac:  The first big supply convoy arrived at Iwo with more to come.  Frances bombers from Marcus damaged four TKs on the way to Iwo.  The CenPac carrier group continues to steam west to rendezvous with the NoPac group somewhere north of Iwo (but not too far away).

NoPac:  Allied 4EB hit the factories at Gumma and resources at Akita on the 2th.  The first wave of 38 P-38s and 39 B-24s from Iwo encountered 29 Jacks, 33 George, 34 Tony, and 22 Tojo.  The Allies lost 19 P-38 and 5 B-24 to 4 Tojo, 4 George, 4 Jack, and 5 Tony.   Four hits were scored.  The second wave consisted of 44 B-24s and 11 B-17s unescorted from Toyohara, with the Japs losing 2 fighters, the Allies 7 bombers, and 11 hits scored.  The third wave of 94 unescorted B-29s from Shikuka scored 11 hits with 5 bombers lost.  Up at Akita, 120 bombers scored 52 Resource hits.

Malaya:  Georgetown becomes a level seven airfield tomorrow.  This base is well-supplied (200k) and is home to 96 B-29s, 64 B-25s, and about 70 Liberator IIIs.  These bombers will be supported by P-38s and Thunderbolts from Bankha and Medan.  Regular raids on Palembang and Singapore commence day after tomorrow.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/15/2009 9:22:14 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 867
RE: WitP Game Balance - 1/16/2009 12:08:46 AM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline 		I need to check the map but it may behoove you to use your 4E's from Iwo to smack Marcus or perhaps ala RL 1943, send the the CV's in to smack the base for a day or two. Don't let John think he has a safe haven anywhere. If this is not a heavily occupied base, you might want to take it out.

At some point you will need to go after KB. You cannot let the whole "Fleet in Being" thing haunt your every move. I know you should be getting the rest of the RN CV's soon. Perhaps you should try to sandwich KB between two large CV fleets.


_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 868
Superforts hit Singapore - 1/16/2009 12:54:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/27/44 to 6/29/44
 
Malaya:  I chose Singapore over Palembang as the first targets for the SEAC Superforts based at Georgetown's level seven airfield.  The first strike on the 28th targeted both airfield and port facilities, with lots of escorts and a massive pre-strike sweep by P-38s and Thunderbolt IIs from Sumatran bases.  This was followed by 90 B-29s, 60 B-25s, and 50 Liberator IIIs.  The results were gratifying.  In the sweep, the Allies lost 13 fighters to 108 for the Japs; the bombers destroyed 102 aicraft on the ground and damaged about a dozen ships in port.  The following day the B-29s hit the port again damaging 14 ships including an MLE and an AR.  The sea to the east is full of ships fleeing to Borneo or other distant harbors.  I think this effectively closes down Singapore as a Japanese naval or air base.  My bombers will rest tomorrow and then strike Palembang on July 1.  The troops prepping for Taiping are moving out tomorrow.  John has pulled some of his troops out of Khota Bharu and is sending them further south, perhaps to reinforce Taiping or Malacca.

CenPac:  The Allied carriers are stationed north of Iwo (group one) and north of Marcus (group two) in a position to protect the series of transport convoys heading to Iwo Jima.  They will be stationed here another week.  No sign of the KB, but my hunch is that John will commit his carriers to either:  (1) go after Ticonderoga and Bennington at New Caledonia; or (2) to hit Eniwetok.

NoPac:  The MLE and ML bound for Toyohara are nearing Paramushiro.  The Allies conducted an all-out raid on Toyohama's resources on the 28th, with 162 B-29s from Shikuka and Changsha and 36 B-24s from Iwo Jima coming in against no fighter opposition.  Total hits scored were 45.  The rest of the 4EB hit Sendai's resources scoring 28 hits.  There wasn't any CAP over Toyohama, so I sent some more bombers there on the 29th, but this time John had fighters up and the Allies lost 19 B-24s and scored just one hit.  Strikes against Akita's resources were more successful, scoring 53 hits.

SWPac:  The Allies have landed two Army divisions, a cavalry division, a regiment, and Fiji Brigade at La Foa.  Noumea is weakly held by two units about 6,000 strong.  John sent some bombers to the field, but B-29s from Aukland destroyed about 9 on the ground and none sortied.  Frances bombers all the way from Lunga didn't do any damage.  There has been time for Jap carriers to reach the Coral Sea if John sent them full-speed without delay, so I'm moving my carriers and transports back to Auckland.  The infantry will march on Noumea.

Points:   The massive strikes on Singapore and Toyohama on the 28th dropped the point spread from 1000 to just 250.  As of June 28, 1944, the Japanese lead was 54,173 to 53,819 (of that total, 6,730 is strategic points).  By the next day, the spread was down to 150 as the Jap total was 54,179 to 54,031 (6,870 strategic points).  The Allies don't have any big resource raids planned for the 30th, so I don't expect to draw even, but it'll be awfully close. 

(in reply to vettim89)
Post #: 869
RE: Superforts hit Singapore - 1/16/2009 5:29:18 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Reading both sides of this AAR (no spoilers), I've developed an image of this game:

The Fencer vs. the Broadsword - ultimately, John knows he can't stand up to you in a stand-up fight, so he's feinting & hitting you where you aren't, trying to buy time to strengthen those areas he feels he can still hold (or make it prohibitively expensive for you.)

He's ****ing away at you, jabbing here and there, just enough to annoy and make you react the way he wants you to & trying to avoid the one large stroke of the broadsword that will cut him down completely (i.e. get in with you in a stand-up carrier fight).

I wouldn't expect him to commit his carriers or too many aircraft at any location he doesn't feel compelled to defend. Losing some bases in the South Pacific isn't going to lose the war for him, but blundering into your carriers or massive LBA with the KB certainly will. As soon as he loses his fleet mobility, you've won. Until that time, he will continue to dance around a tight perimeter (in my opinion) and try to whittle you down bit by bit & give you a bloody nose.

My recommendation would be to go multi-dimensional on him - instead of making one big push (like Wake) at a time, you should hit him with multiple offensives, simultaneously. He only has so many ships & so many planes, he can't generate local parity or superiority if faced with multiple threat vectors - he'll either have to compromise & undercommit or fall back completely.

Eventually, he's going to have to come out to fight - don't let it be at a place of his choosing - force him to fight & you'll clean his clock - pressure, pressure, pressure - he'll run out of bodies long before you will (and your bombing campaign is putting a huge dent in his points).

Keep up the good work - just wanted to put in my $0.02.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 870
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