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RE: Operation Shooting Star Complete - 3/16/2009 5:41:57 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		He's already made one crucial mistake - letting you know where the KB was located, without inflicting any real damage on your fleet. India is only a sideshow - you get to kill his troops & planes - and while they are there, they can't interfere with other on-going operations.

You're bombing the Home Islands at will - he's bleeding fighters at a pretty good rate there. Sounds like he's massing his LBA around Formosa though, given the attacks generated over the past few turns. You might want to consider some pre-emptive sweeps, if you have the fighters with range available.

If he's rushing from one end of the map to the other, you've gotten him off balance - which means you can prepare a pretty nasty reception once he does commit his carriers again.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1201
RE: Operation Shooting Star Complete - 3/16/2009 5:51:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		He's got a real problem with defending Formosa now - or striking amphibious ships closing on Formosa - because he's lost at least half his airfields and the Allies, of course, are the new owners.  The Allies have big bases and base forces at Amoy, Swatow, and Pescadores, with Foochow soon to come (as soon as I can scare up another base force).  Hong Kong can also lend a hand, and Batan Island is a level one, which offers a little security.  He can still load up the fields on Formosa (three good ones), Luzon, Okinawa, Shanghai area, and Southern Japan, but it's not nearly as intimidating a prospect for the Allies to move on Formosa now, especially with the KB seemingly out of the picture.

I am not predicting that the game will end in the near future - I don't know what might happen; but I sincerely hope that the Allies can take Suva and land on Formosa before it ends.  I just "want" Suva back, and the Formosa invasion has been in preparation so long that I would like to see it unfold.  If it doesn't end soon, I think the Japs in India will cause some more headaches, run out of steam, die a slow death, and be largely eradicated by early 1945.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 1202
The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/16/2009 7:51:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/19/44
 
After the decisive Confederate victory at Chickamauga in September 1863, the Confederate had the Union army trapped in a river town surrounded by mountains.  The Confederates thought they had the Union army right where they wanted them, but subsequent decisive defeats at the Battles of Lookout Mountain and Missionary Ridge were described by an astute observer as "the shipwreck of their hopes."  I think this aptly describes the current situation for Japan; the thought that the Empire might captitulate is growing.

South of Sumatra:  The KB wandered into the Allied sub field south of Sumatra, losing a CL and CV Ikoma (I've never heard of that ship before) taking two TTs.  So John is indeed abandoning India and trying to get the KB back to Java.  This tells me that his India gambit is indeed up the spout.  He had a sub trap off the western tip of Sumatra, but as noted in yesterday's post my carriers are on their way back to Singapore.  This puts my carriers in good position to head back to Formosa if the need should arise.  I no longer think they will be needed for India.

India: Nothing really discernible has changed in India yet:  Allied LBA continues to hammer airfields and shipping, and Jap units are spread across the vacant interior of southern India; but with the KB gone, and with Allied troops pouring into NE India, it's become clear that the Japs can't do anything here but die.  I've already cancelled the air transport system and diverted a large aviation regiment that was destined for Calcutta to instead board transports for the trip to Foochow by way of Kiungshan.

Operation Neptune:  Most of the ships are now 240 miles south of Iwo; the last three or four CVE TFs have refueled at Iwo and depart tonight.  D-Day Formosa is perhaps six or eight days away.

Operation Uranus:  The first attack at Nanchang will occur day after tomorrow or the next day.  The Allies will have 4,500 AV (most 100% prepped) and the Japs 2,500 AV and 9 forts (I assume).  I don't know if I have enough, but if not there's lots more on the way.

SWPac:  A probing deliberate attack at Suva came off at 4:1 and dropped forts to 8.  The Allies didn't suffer any casualties, so tomorrow they'll shock attack.

Points:  (A) 83,415 (J) 58,039; Ratio:  1.43 to 1

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1203
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/16/2009 8:09:12 PM   
Nachoz

 

Posts: 8
Joined: 4/22/2008
Status: offline 		Man ill hate the day you guys call off this game... duting several months it has kept me on my toes, even if i dont play WITP...

Greetings to you both...:D

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1204
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/16/2009 10:37:44 PM   
Mark VII


Posts: 1838
Joined: 8/11/2003
From: Brentwood,TN
Status: offline 		Knowing where KB is, I think it is a good time to run your CV deathstar back to the China/Formosa area, draw some Japanese airstrikes and ruin his landbased air with your uber CAP.

_____________________________


(in reply to Nachoz)
Post #: 1205
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/16/2009 11:51:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/20/44
 
Mark, that's one option I'm considering; I'll bet if 20 folks posted their opinions here, though, the vast majority would say, "Go hunt down the KB!"

Carriers:  A Dutch sub put 2 TT into CVE Taiyo far to the south of Sumatra.  In his emails, John is trying to bluff that this represents just a portion of his carriers returning for fuel.  I know beter - I know he's given up on India and is desperately trying to extract his carriers from a tight spot before they are cornered and demolished.  My carriers are heading down the Malacca Straits, giving the appearance that they're in hot pursuit, and I think the KB "herd" has panicked and is stampeding.  However, my carriers are bushed - lots of fighters out of commision, many carriers with 10 or higher SYS damage, and all American carriers in need of upgrades.  The end of the war is at hand, and I may need my carriers, so I won't upgrade them now; but I will stop at Singapore long enough to get the fighter groups back up to 100%.  John will feel mighty good that he's escaped the trap, but my goodness the cost to the Japanese - India is a disaster and in the absence of the KB the Allies have run amock on the China coast and the islands offshore.   John may also fear that the next Allied invasion is targeting Java, Borneo or the Philippines, and he may be hoping to employ his carriers there to good effect.

India:  I don't know what John will do here now.  I feel like Ceylon's safety is beyond any risk even with my hypersenstive conservatism, so I'm going to air transport a goodly portion of a West African division to Madras and try to hold that urban hex.  The Japanese "marbles" will continue to rattle around in the "empty metal bucket" that is India until they run out of supplies or meet defeat in combat.

China:  As soon as I can gather the necessary transports, I'll load the troops to hit Wenchow or Nigpo.  A big base force will begin arriving at Foochow tomorrow, permitting the Allies to provide LRCAP over either target.

Operation Neptune: All ships have left Iwo and the advance body is about 300 miles south now; tomorrow they make an abrupt turn to the west and head for Formosa.  This invasion will take time and effort, but with Allied LBA so plentiful, the outcome isn't in question.  Should the game last long enough, the next American target would be Luzon, while the Brits and Chinese focus on Shanghai.  The Americans are bringing extra ships and supplies that are much needed by the British and Chinese.

SWPac:  Suva fell to Americans and Fiji troops on the 20th.  The Allies have a huge Aussie army stuck in Australia due to lack of ships; were the game to last long enough to get transports down there, these troops are prepped for a major base in the DEI.  But I have a feeling the war will end before the Australians can ever get their licks in.  But Anzac has largely handled on its own the recapture of Australia plus the invasions of Milne Bay, Port Moresby, Koumac, Luganville, Nandi, and Suva - a pretty decent record of accomplishment.   Next target will be Pago Pago and vicinity; then, should the war last long enough, the Society Islands.

Points:  (A)  83,507 (J) 56,941; Ratio:  1.46 to 1

(in reply to Mark VII)
Post #: 1206
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/16/2009 11:56:19 PM   
String


Posts: 2661
Joined: 10/7/2003
From: Estonia
Status: offline 		Hm, you know, singapore has a shipyard? You can upgrade your carriers there if you wish.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1207
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 12:01:12 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yeah, I know - Singapore's a good shipyard as is Hong Kong.  But won't upgrades inflict like 10% SYS damage on the carriers?  At this late date I can't afford to upgrade because then they'd be out of commission while all the "end events" occur (if, that is, my hunch that things are about to come to a head is right).

(in reply to String)
Post #: 1208
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 12:05:46 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		With carriers my experience is around 6 sys damage, but maybe late war upgrades do more.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1209
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 1:00:23 AM   
String


Posts: 2661
Joined: 10/7/2003
From: Estonia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

With carriers my experience is around 6 sys damage, but maybe late war upgrades do more.


Nope, an upgrade is an upgrade. You can expect to be at around 10-11% sys after an upgrade if your carrier was damaged before.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 1210
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 1:14:18 AM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: String


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

With carriers my experience is around 6 sys damage, but maybe late war upgrades do more.


Nope, an upgrade is an upgrade. You can expect to be at around 10-11% sys after an upgrade if your carrier was damaged before.


Seems high. I just put Enterprise through her 10/43 upgrade and it cost me four points of SYST damage. Don't forget they won't upgrade if SYST is 5 or more. So basically four plus whatever the game gives you. It is based on the durability of the ship which is why AK's always turn pink after upgrade. I would let any ships below five go ahead and upgrade Dan. They will probably end up about where most of the other ships are anyway.

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

(in reply to String)
Post #: 1211
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 3:36:04 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Do you use Tracker??

If so, see what the upgrade offers, if an extra "500AA" its worth it.


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Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to vettim89)
Post #: 1212
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 5:04:41 AM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Do you use Tracker??

If so, see what the upgrade offers, if an extra "500AA" its worth it.



and the congregation said, "AMEN"

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1213
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 10:10:55 AM   
Kereguelen


Posts: 1829
Joined: 5/13/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/20/44

India:  I don't know what John will do here now.  I feel like Ceylon's safety is beyond any risk even with my hypersenstive conservatism, so I'm going to air transport a goodly portion of a West African division to Madras and try to hold that urban hex.  The Japanese "marbles" will continue to rattle around in the "empty metal bucket" that is India until they run out of supplies or meet defeat in combat.



John will have to concentrate his assets in India if he intends to go for Karachi or Bombay. Try to attack his supply ports (Trivandrum and Mangalore?) with ground units (once available) if they have weak garrisons. This will ruin his supply routes even if you don't take the ports (that is, it will be sufficient to have LCU's in the port hexes).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1214
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 2:49:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/21/44
 
Carriers:  RN CVE Begum hit a mine near Singapore and will be in the docks for awhile.  A sub put a TT into CVE Shinyo SW of Christmas Island (IO).  Other than Begum's mishap, the Allied carriers made it to Singapore where they are refueling.  The Jap carriers are stragling toward Java, spread out from near Christmas Island and back for hundreds of miles.  (I could try to cut them off, but my ships and fighters are weary, I'd rather send my carriers to Formosa, and I'd have to chance the crossing through the narrow straits between Java and Sumatra, which John could mine heavily).  It looks like the CVEs and amphibous force heading to Formosa will arrive long before the KB could arrive even if the KB was fully fueled and came at full speed; plus the American carriers at Singapore are closer. 

India:  John is concentrating his troops to move up the interior road of India rather than up either coast where he could have taken Madras and Pangim.  The Allies will try to "surround" the enemy with strongly fortified bases (Calcutta, Bombay, and if given time Madras and Pangim) and then move to threaten John's flank somewhere.  It'll take time to eradicate a Jap army of roughly divisions plus (four infantry, four tank, plus other units) that can rattle around in the old metal bucket like marbles, but time we have.

Operation Uranus:  John has finally pulled together some kind of defense of eastern China, including reinforcing the coastal towns and the strong garrison at Nanchang.  I will try a probing deliberate attack at Nanchang tomorrow.  The Japs have four units at Wenchow (the next city up the coast) and Ningpo (the city after Wenchow).  The Allies have an overwhelming number of units prepping for both coastal cities, but I'll concentrate on one and try to outflank the other.  Both are in proximity to Shanghai, and if taken will (I think) reintroduce the Japs to mayhem in China.  Foochow can offer pretty good LRCAP, but I'd like to use carrier air here too (after the invasion of Formosa).  One nice thing about the Formosa operation is that it's so close to China that both operations benefit.

Operation Neptune:  The American amphibious armada is 700 miles south of Iwo, will steam south yet another day, and then will head nearly due west to Formosa.  John has "run the blockade" from the Philippines to shift some combat ships (CLs and DDs) to China, and there's a good bit of merchant shipping suddenly on the move between the Home Islands, China, and Formosa.  So I think he's identified the next target.  The ships going to Formosa must be carrying supplies, because I don't detect any increase in troop concentrations at the three bases.  D-Day is probably six days away - say November 27.

Japan:  Big raid on Tokyo didn't face any fighter opposition.  The Superforts concentrated on Heavy Industry while the other 4EB targeted some engine and aircraft factories.

SWPac:  I forgot that weeks ago I loaded a NZ Brigade on transports and ordered them to head to Gasmata on New Britain.   I must've meant to check things before they actually went ashore, but promptly forgot all about them until they began landing today.  Gasmata is vacant, so that will give the Allies a base near Rabaul.

Points: (A) 84,112 (J) 56,820; Ratio:  1.48 to 1; Strategic Points:   16,032

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/17/2009 2:51:06 PM >

(in reply to Kereguelen)
Post #: 1215
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/17/2009 3:00:43 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline 		I love it.  "Oh, by the way, Admiral, we kind of took Gasmata by accident yesterday." 

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1216
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/18/2009 2:42:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/22/44
 
India:  The Japanese Expeditionary Army has been abandoned.  This army is strong enough to pose an operational threat anywhere it chooses, so I'm not ignoring it; but neither will it influence strategic operations from this point on.  The Allies are going to try to reinforce Madras to hold that port; I think Bombay is safe now with 300 AV (it's an urban hex, and if things did get worrisome I could transport in reinforcements by air or sea).  Without question Karachi and Calcutta are safe now.  Allied LBA continues to hit what little shipping is left.

India's Cost:  To this point, the India campaign has cost the Allies BB Ramillies (lost); BC Repulse (moderate damage); CVE Begum (light damage); a handful of transports; and the planes and troops committed to its defense (but they were "excess" at the moment, so their use didn't detract from any other operation to any measurable extent.  The Japs have thus far lost a CVE (sunk); two CVEs (damage); one CV (heavy damage); one CV (probably light damage); two BBs (probably moderate damage); probably 100 to 200 transports; several hundred aircraft; and an Army.  If John commits the KB now against the Formosa invasion, I think he'll be short four carriers and two BBs.

China:  The Allies are reconfiguring airfields to make sure they have good long-distance fighters at forward bases like Pescadores, Foochow, and Amoy for the upcoming operations at Formosa and coastal China.  A probabing deliberate attack at Nanchang came off at 0:1, cost the Japs 1.9k to 6.1k casualties, but dropped forts to 8.  The Allied troops will rest a few days while the airforce continues to work on the enemy positions.  Nanchang can hold awhile, but its days are numbered.  On the coast, John continues to reinforce Wenchow (his most exposed base) and, to a lesser extent, Ningpo.  The Allies will hit Ningpo in huge numbers in about two weeks.

Operation Neptune:  The spearhead of the Allied invasion fleet is 420 miles SSW of Iwo and about 720 miles east of the Formosa beaches.  Tomorrow, the ships take a hard turn to the right and head west toward Formosa.

Japan:  Big raid scheduled for Toyama's resources tomorrow.

SWPac:  As USA America noted, the Allies "accidentally" took Gasmata today.

(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 1217
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/20/2009 12:11:30 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/23/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The invasion armada turned west and is now about 560 to 620 miles east of Formosa.  In the turning, the carriers came within range of a sizeable Japanese transport fleet.  The first strike counted 13 ships torpedoed and 1 bombed.  There were a series of smaller strikes following; by the end of the day, I noted 6 MSW and 9 AKs went down, with more sure to follow over the next days.  The American/RN carrier fleet will leave Singapore tonight and head north to assist with the invasion.  D-Day is probably on or near November 28. 

Operation Uranus:  All troops are in place and ready to load on transports as soon as they become available (the Neptune armada is bringing about 30 empty AKs and APs that will continue on to Hong Kong and Swatow).  The army at Nanchang needs a few more days before trying another attack.  A few small Allied strikes against Jap shipping at Wenchow showed a strong CAP of 50 Franks, so John is really worried about this base now (and should be).  I'm glad John is working to set up defenses here, because that tells me he's still planning for "down the road" rather than prepaing to surrender.  I kinda want to see what will happen a few weeks down the road when the Allies invade coastal China again.

Japan:  The fighter sweep at Toyama only put up 23 P-47s that faced 16 George and 45 Jack, the Allies losing no aircraft and the Japs 19; however, the Japs had enough fighters left to discourage the resolve on the following raid of 170 4EB from Toyohara, which managed just six resource hits.  At that point, though, the fighters were about give up, so the next raid of 222 B-29s did well, knocking out 44 resource points.

India:  A raid on the docks at Trivandrum hit six transports and a sub.  The Jap army continues to concentrate on the interior section and is also probing toward Bombay.  The Allies didn't sight any Jap aircraft carriers near Java today, and some of them should be nearing Soerabaja.  I "assume" John will then commit them toward Formosa.

Points:  (A) 85,025 (J) 57,037; Ratio:  1.49 to 1; Strategic:  16,474

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1218
RE: The Shipwreck of their Hopes - 3/20/2009 8:40:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/24/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The vanguard of the Formosa invasion fleet is 420 miles east of the beaches; today passed without incident, and there the Allied haven't detected an increase in activity at Jap airbases on Luzon and Formosa.  D-Day should be November 28.  The main Allied fleet carrier TFs left Singapore today and will near Saigon tomorrow.  The Jap carriers have "disappeared" into the area near Soerabaja.  I'm assuming John will commit them to Formosa, but we'll see.

Operation Uranus:  John has reinforced Nanchang as will the Allies.  Even if this base doesn't fall soon, it should be outlanked in a few weeks when the Allies next invade Coastal China.

India:  Marbles rattling around an empty metal bucket.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1219
Operation Neptune - 3/21/2009 4:04:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/25/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The Taiwan invasion fleets reached a point 120 miles east of Batan Island without incident.  Tomorrow, a bombardment TF and a MSW TF (though named "Escort" to avoid excessive damage from shore guns) will arrive at the invasion hex.  The remaining ships will stand 60 miles offshore.  D-Day is November 27.  No signs that the Japs are loading up nearby airfields.  The two TFs destined for Batan Islands (one carrying a base force, the other a Philippines unit to bolster the defenses) will arrive tomorrow.  50th Indian Paratroops at Foochow is going to try a shoestring assault on one of the Jap islands south of Okinawa, which I believe is undefended.  The American carriers are near Saigon and will be close to Camranh Bay tomorrow.  They will reach the invasion area around the 28th or 29th.

Operation Uranus:  John has reinforced Nanchang with two divisions, making this a tougher objective; so I doubt much if any progress will be made until the Allies can invade the next coastal-hex target (perhaps two weeks away).

Japan:  A handful of CVs and CVLs sighted at Nagasaki over the past few days (a surprise, because I figured John had sent everything to India).  The Changsha and Shikuka B-29s will try a raid preceded by a fighter sweep from Tori Shima.  The Changsha Superforts will target port facilities; the Shikuka planes will be split between the Frank factory and various ship repair and ship-building facilities.

India:  Three Jap Army divisions plus an engineer unit took undefended Poona, a hex from Bombay.  I don't think that's enough to threaten Bombay, which has 300 AV, 9 forts, and an urban hex.  The Allies are about to land two reinforcing units at Madras, and have gathered a stout little force at Cuttack.  It won't be much longer before the Allies begin to nibble at the flanks of the Japanese army in India.  But for now, Japan has this wierd little colony snuggled deep in India's interior.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1220
RE: Operation Neptune - 3/21/2009 4:19:25 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

a MSW TF (though named "Escort" to avoid excessive damage from shore guns)


Is this kosher?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1221
RE: Operation Neptune - 3/21/2009 4:32:22 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

a MSW TF (though named "Escort" to avoid excessive damage from shore guns)


Is this kosher?


...and does it work?

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 1222
RE: Operation Neptune - 3/21/2009 4:59:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: USS America


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

a MSW TF (though named "Escort" to avoid excessive damage from shore guns)


Is this kosher?


...and does it work?


Why the heck wouldn't it be kosher? Same thing as classifying carrier TFs as "escort" so that they won't do the crazy "react" stuff that air combat TFs are forever doing.

I think it does work - although I'm not sure I've done it before (or I may have, back during the Wake Island invasion). I've had MSW TFs get chewed up while checking for mines in an enemy base hex - they seem to take unnaturally high losses so that it becomes nearly impossible to deal rationally with a heavily-mined hex, so I think this is a good counter-strategy.

(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 1223
A Word on the Eve of Neptune - 3/22/2009 1:19:07 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies are close to D-Day in one of their biggest operations of the war, and I realized I haven't summarized what I expect to happen:

1. Formosa: John has 28 units here - 10 south base, 8 middle, 10 north. He can easily reinforce the invasion beach, though my troops are 100% prepped and his reinforcements probably won't be. He'll have a tough time getting NEW troops to Formosa, however, because of the weight of Allied shipping and air in the immediate area. I figure it will take the Allies a long time to conquer the first base, but the ultimate outcome isn't in doubt.

2. Jap Carriers: The Allies will be focusing on defending the Formosa operation for about a week, so John will be able to force a carrier battle if he wants one. He'll be able to load up big bases at Aparri, Okinawa, etc. to lend a hand; but the Allies have alot of fighters close by at Pescadores, Foochow, Amoy, and others places. The fact that P-47Ds can fly LRCAP in big numbers is awfully reassuring. Bring on the carrier battle.

3. Nanchang: John has reinforced heavily so that the two sides are at a standoff here for the short-term. That's fine with me, because this is a holding operation intended to focus Jap attention here, while the next big Allied move with a chance to flank and cause mayhem goes in at....

4. Ningpo (or possibly Wenchow): A massive Chinese army is prepping and awaiting transports. Many of these will come from the Formosa invasion. I'd say D-Day for Ningpo may be as soon as two weeks away. If the Ningpo operation is as successful as I think it may be, suddenly Shanghai is in danger.

5. Knowing that Formosa will be difficult, I briefly considered diverting to easier targets. However, the alternatives (Luzon, Okinawa) are just as tough and aren't close to Allied LBA. It might be worthwhile to use the Americans in China, but I've decided that getting one (or more) bases on Formosa is vital, for it truly severs Japan from her empire and gives the Allies a big base right on the last sea lanes open to Japan proper.

6. John has shown great resolve to continue fighting. The war may last quite a bit longer, or a decisive defeat (especially if it involves the KB) might discourage John sufficiently to persuade him to capitulate. So I can see the war lasting well into '45, or ending suddenly and with not much notice.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1224
RE: A Word on the Eve of Neptune - 3/22/2009 12:51:10 PM   
tocaff


Posts: 4781
Joined: 10/12/2006
From: USA now in Brasil
Status: offline 		We can only hope that John decides to make you pay for whatever you get up until the bitter end when the level of victory gained by the Allies has become a forgone conclusion.  The KB is an annoyance, but after the India foray it's probably weakened and tired.  Any planes lost by Japan, especially pilots, are crucial at this stage of the game.  I think that making him come to you for a CV showdown is the way to go as long as your LBA can come into play.  He can try to force the issue though by roaming in areas that the IJN become more than just a bit of trouble (supply lines).

_____________________________

Todd

I never thought that doing an AAR would be so time consuming and difficult.
www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2080768

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1225
RE: A Word on the Eve of Neptune - 3/22/2009 1:41:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/26/44
 
Operation Neptune:  Everything is in place for D-Day.  The minesweepers swept, though the shoreguns got about six of them; then the bombardment TF came in and did a good day's work; the transports stood one hex south and will come in tomorrow.  The CVEs will stand a hex SW (except for three which will provide close air support along with P-47Ds from Pescadores.  No sign of the Japs loading up airfields (decidedly un-Japanese like, though that may well change).  The American/RN carriers are near Camranh Bay now and will arrive day after tomorrow.  50th Indian paratroops did their thing again, seizing the unoccupied island base Miyoka, north of Formosa).

Operation Uranus:  Many Allied transports, especially LSTs, should unload tomorrow.  They will then head to Hong Kong, Swatow, Amoy, and Foochow to load troops for the next invasion in coastal China.  The Hong Kong troops have the farthest to go, so they will commence loading in a day or two.  D-Day for this operation has moved up - it could be as soon as 10 days from now.

Japan:  Fighters and B-29s from China and Sikhalin Island hit Nagasaki in big numbers, but didn't catch any carriers disbanded into port.

India:  Like marbles rolling around in any empty metal bucket.

Score:  (A) 85,499 (J) 57,149; Ratio:  1.49 to 1; Strategic Points:  16,688

(in reply to tocaff)
Post #: 1226
D-Day Formosa - 3/22/2009 9:16:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/27/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The Allies began landing at Formosa, and things are going well despite many small craft (and some larger ones) taking hits from mines and shore guns.  I lost perhaps 10-12 MSW, LCI and LSM, with a few CLs, DDs, and CAs suffering light damage.  The assault ships unloaded completely, with the APs lagging somewhat, but the Allies already have 2200 AV ashore, with more to come tomorrow.  John is already shifting units to Takao.  The garrison is now four divisions plus a few miscellaneous NLF and other smaller units.  It's going to be a long tough battle.  I'll try a shock attack tomorrow in hopes that I can get one in before more reinforcements arrive, and hopefully knock off a fort.  But then it will become a long seige in which naval gunfire and aerial bombings will play a big part. 

Like the Siege at Nanchang, a major emphasis of this attack is to hold Jap attention while the Allies mount a quick and major invasion of Ningpo, a key base close to Shanghai.  Because if I can take Ningpo, it threatens the Japanese position in most of China.  Already, a bunch of empty transports have moved to Pescadores. From there, they spread out to various bases on the Chinese coast to begin loading units.  D-Day Ningpo is perhaps 9 to 10 days off.

No sign of the KB, yet, but it could be close.  John has loaded up the airfield at Aparri, and I assume he has done likewise at Okinawa and other bases within range.  The American carriers will either rendezvous with the CVE fleet, or come close, tomorrow.  Allied fighters - especially long-range P-38Ls and P-47Ds - will provide plenty of LRCAP tomorrow, concentrating on the two carrier divisions, but also covering the landing ships at Takao.

Allied LBA will be divided - the B-29s at Changsha will target ground troops at Takao; B-25s along the China coast are supposed to hit the airfield at Aparri; most of the other 4EB are set on naval attack.

Edited to Add: India: Four Jap units have arrived at Bombay with another to follow. I think I have enough to hold the base, but I'll be nervous until I'm sure. Allied units have just arrive at Madras and will move out on two roads to scout opportunities to work behind the main Jap concentrations in Middle India.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/23/2009 2:18:10 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1227
RE: D-Day Formosa - 3/23/2009 3:38:17 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Dont forget to hit his LCU's moving on Takao with your LBA.

Anything to add to the fatigue and chew away at their strength.

(In my games I'd send B-29's after them!!)


_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1228
RE: D-Day Formosa - 3/23/2009 2:31:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/28/44
 
Takao, Formosa:  The landings continue without trouble.  The first Allied shock attack comes off at a surprising 1:1 and drops forts to 8.  However, more Japanese units are arriving overland, so the going will be slow.  This will be a long but important campaign.  Allied bombers from China hit the Jap airfield at Aparri, Philippines, with good success, and John has pulled out his aircraft.  He's also using Lingayen.  Jap LBA sortied in scattered, usually small groups against various targets, but scored no hits and suffered high losses.  No sign of the KB yet.  The Allied carrier fleets have merged just south of Takao.  (JeffK, I've had my B-29s targeting land units, but they refuse to fly these missions; there's something about China that makes air strikes unpredictable in the extreme.  Many bombers from a variety of bases in China are now refusing to hit Nanchang.  So I've re-targeted most bombers to hit troops at Takao and all the airfields on Formosa, with a scattering left on Naval Strike.)

Operation Uranaus:  Allied troops at Hong Kong and Swatow began loading today.  I have enough transports currently at these two bases to load 2500 AV, with another 1150 awaiting additional transports.  Another 1100 AV at Amoy and Foochow are awaiting transports that will arrive soon.  So, the Allies will have a total of about 4700 AV slated for Ningpo, which is currently occupied by five units recently arrived (so the Allies should have the advantage in preparation, even though my troops currently average about 25%).  Hopefully, the sieges at Takao and Nanchang, plus the fact that Wenchow would be the next obvious target, will dissuade John from reinforcing Ningpo.  D-Day should be no more than 7 to 8 days away.  It may come in two waves, with perhaps 3,000 AV coming ashore in the first, covered by the Allied carrier fleets and stout bombardment TFs.

Allied Air bases:  The Allied amphibious fleet hitting Takao also brought lots of air bases that are unloading at Pescadores and Amoy.  The Allies now have more base capacity here and at Foochow and Swatow than they have room for.  Swatow just went to level six airfield; one more level and it can hold B-29s that will be in much closer range (than Changsha) to southern Japan.

Air Losses on the Day:  The Japs lost 132 (including 58 on the ground at Aparri) and the Allies 27.

India:  The Japs have all four infantry divisions in India at Bombay and tried a deliberate attack, which came off decidedly 0:1, but managed to drop forts to 8.  John may now divert some armored units there in hopes of picking off this important base, so the Allies will get some reinforcements there too (probably partly via airlift).

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/23/2009 2:34:24 PM >

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1229
RE: D-Day Formosa - 3/24/2009 2:47:07 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/29/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The Allies are taking a bit of a breather at Takao while Japanese reinforcements continue to arrive.  A few relatively small Jap air attacks met with anhiliation, though one managed to damage two transports at Batan Island.  The Allies face a stiff test here, but that's fine as long as it holds John's attention.  No sign of the KB.

Operation Uranus:  The Allied deliberate attack at Nanchang came off at 0:1 but dropped forts to 7.  I hope this worries John.  Nanchang is also intended to draw John's attention.  Transports were sighted at Wenchow, and the number of units there is up to 8.  However, the number at Ningpo remains at 5.  Allied troops are loading and ships should be ready to leave Hong Kong in no more than three days.  D-Day looks good at about a week.

India:  More Jap troops are closing on Bombay, while Allied troops are moving out from Madras and Cuttack.

Japan:  Big raid scheduled for Tokyo tomorrow.

Points:  (A) 85,829 (J) 57,176; Ratio:  1.50 to 1; Strategic Points:  16,688

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1230
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