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RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/17/2009 6:53:44 PM   
Hornblower


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Status: offline 		I wish there was the Allied AAR so we (well not John anyway) can see what the thinking behind the allies is.
I still think I am right on my earlier post.  He’s not going to fight for anything south and hope you elect a hit/run raid on Pearl and see what the air action does.    All said and done I’m thinking he swings around from midway to wake/Marcus, then south to the northern Marshalls to isolate all the SoPac.  I say July as the earlier once the WASP and the Fast BB’s arrive.  Or December when the Essex and Indy’s start to hit, along with LST’s, and the Corsair / P-38 are deployed

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RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/17/2009 7:24:32 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		We just got a bonus turn in for lunch that Brad is running right now.  This means we will get a 3rd one in tonight.  The KB will be in the area north of Canton at that point so we shall have to see what is going to happen.



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RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/17/2009 7:27:49 PM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		I also noticed John the Thursday Is. force sailed; that should be a walkover. I didn't check, hopefully you brought along at least 1 CL in there to duel with the CD guns, right?

Just to be irritating, I wonder if we can para drop on Coen, then pick the unit up, and put an NLF on Portland Roads. Just harrassment stuff really.

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Burma Zones - 4/17/2009 8:09:20 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		I had thought about that too. But if we land at Coen with 1,000 Paras they might evacuate all the way to Brisbane! What would we do THEN MISTER??!! Don't have the power to innitiate Operation Shoestring: Southwest...

NO I didn't bring a CL along for Thursday. Didn't even think about it. Oooppps. I could recall the Landing Force and bring one up from Auckland. What do you think? Landing Force Composition: 2 Nvl Guard, 2 SNLF, and a Con Bat=6,000 men.






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Port Moresby - 4/18/2009 1:49:34 AM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		I almost posted this on my other AAR! Oooppsss... I am soooooo confused.






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RE: Port Moresby - 4/18/2009 2:07:49 AM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		John, I think you need to abort the Thursday Landing if we still can. That base force has 4x6in CD guns, as well as 4x4in. The invasion fleet has 2 MSW, 4 PG, and all transports. None of the transports are supply only, and most are packed to the rafters, so it will take more than one turn to unload. The transports are going to get crushed. A couple CL's would probably be enough to get everyone ashore if there are any nearby.

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RE: Port Moresby - 4/18/2009 2:11:40 AM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		As long as our boys don't do a speed run into Thursday Isle, I will abort the landing and call-up reinforcements/help from Auckland.  They aren't even flying recon out of anything close so it hasn't been spotted.  Could it be 'no harm--no foul?' 

Can also pull a few more AP from nearby areas.  They are in rather short supply at the moment with the Empire stretching around 50% of the planet!

Where is our evening turn?  Thought we would get 3 in today.

EDIT: Just checked and I have a CA and a pair of CL at Auckland with plenty of DDs. Will bring a few to join the party.


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 4/18/2009 2:17:07 AM >

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RE: Port Moresby - 4/18/2009 4:51:02 AM   
Hornblower


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Status: offline 		I look forward to seeing Canton, and the next weeks after that... 

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Shimakaze-GO - 4/18/2009 5:54:55 AM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		Here is a shot of your Island as of June 23, 1942 with the Japanese closing in for the kill:






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Post #: 849
RE: Shimakaze-GO - 4/18/2009 6:37:39 AM   
Hornblower


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Status: offline 		No sign of USN?  Not even a SS?

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RE: Shimakaze-GO - 4/18/2009 7:32:19 AM   
John 3rd


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Shimakaze-GO - 4/19/2009 4:54:10 AM   
John 3rd


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RE: Shimakaze-GO - 4/19/2009 3:23:28 PM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		I was concerned for nothing at Thursday. 4 6in CD guns SHOULD have sunk several transports, but didn't; they hadn't run supplies there for awhile, and I suspect they were out of supplies. Very few hits on the transports, and the unit collapsed instantly, 1300 more POWs.

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Shimakaze-GO - 4/19/2009 4:05:46 PM   
John 3rd


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Post #: 854
India - 4/19/2009 4:29:37 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		Combat Report
June 24, 1942

I have already shown Shimakaze so don't need to do more there.

India
Karachi
We now know what is in Karachi. The answer is a CRAPLOAD of troops! Total Assault Value about 2,900. Yikes. Recommend our 'Expedition Force' that just entered the hex RUN and fallback while we fortify Malir.

Should also note that the Royal Navy appeared this turn in the form of the 3 R-Class BB, 4 CL, and 5 DD. They bombarded our troops in the hex. Nice to know they are there and vulnerable to an attack. We have 7 CVs (2 Junyo, 1 CVL, 4 CVE) sitting in Singapore at the moment ready to go!

Bombay
The Allies have 2,300 AV present here and so I guess this is the choice. We have a tad over 3,000 AV present. The AF is staying damaged at about 70% and we now command the seas around the city.

Ceylon
Time to take out this thorn behind us. Brad has nicely destroyed about 12 or so Beauforts at Trincomalee and has troops prepping for an assault landing there fairly soon. Brad can you explain your plans here?

Burma
36,29
The British troops that had been driven into this hex when they retreated from Myitkyina are inadvertently pushed back tot he hex west of Tsunyang (Sp?). A TK Regiment puched back SEVEN units with a 4-1 attack! That says something...

35,29
These Chinese heroes continue to hold though Brad has been resting our boys a bit. The area is hit by by about 80-90 planes a day.

North Pacific
Cold Bay
This is the last base we will take and it falls this day. Will re-organize the units now and set-up the long-term defence of these islands.

SS Operations
I-154 hits an AK moving towards the Aden channel with a Torp
I-6 Battle Surfaces against an AK and puts a pair of TT as well as 4 Shells into it.
Ro-64 hits an AK with 1 Torp in the Gulf of Alaska


Bombay Thoughts
We really need to get our Assault Value up if we are to make a serious attempt at grabbing this urban center. We have about 3,000 available now in the hex. This is what we might add to it:

(In India) 2 Inf Div, several Hv Gun Reg, and 2 Brigade---1,500 AV
(In Burma) 3 Brigades, 5 Artillery units, and an Eng Reg---1,000 AV
(In Korea) 1 Inf Div (will buy it tomorrow)---450 AV
(Once Ceylon Falls) Inf Div, Inf Brig, and several other units---600 AV

This totals up to about 3,600

We can realistically double the assault power present in the hex within a month of time. While waiting for that we can continue bombing the place and get ready for BB Bombardments. There should be 4-5,000 pieces of Artillery (nearly 2,000 present now) when everything is in place. Have no idea if this will even make a dent but we shall see....

What do readers think?

Brad--Your thoughts???






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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 4/19/2009 4:31:02 PM >

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RE: India - 4/19/2009 7:05:07 PM   
Rainer79

 

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Status: offline 		My € 0,02:

If your troops can't survive an attack at Karachi with its urban bonus, then they won't be able to hold at Malir if the British pursue.

As for Bombay, assuming reasonably high forts even with the reinforcements added I don't think you'd be able to take the base quickly. A multi-month siege might succeed but then you'd have to commit a lot of troops well into '43.

It could be interesting to look up the AV numbers of the Aussie defenders in the Forlorn Hopes game as a comparison.

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Post #: 856
RE: Strategic Vision - 4/19/2009 7:05:09 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		The Axis powers continue to advance...so where are the Allies? Good going, John and Q-Ball.

Don't you have an HR prohibiting Jap forces from coming within four hexes of the Aden and Panama City channels? That's a standard HR in every extended map game I've seen.

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RE: India - 4/19/2009 7:08:13 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rainer79

My € 0,02:

If your troops can't survive an attack at Karachi with its urban bonus, then they won't be able to hold at Malir if the British pursue.

As for Bombay, assuming reasonably high forts even with the reinforcements added I don't think you'd be able to take the base quickly. A multi-month siege might succeed but then you'd have to commit a lot of troops well into '43.

It could be interesting to look up the AV numbers of the Aussie defenders in the Forlorn Hopes game as a comparison.


Good point, Rainer. The Allies had about 2,400 AV at Syndey, and supplies were about 50,000 when the siege began. John tried one attack there (he had something like 6 or 8 divisions?) and drew 0:1 odds and took extremely lopsided casualties. If Bombay has good supplies and can keep them, I don't see how the Japs can ever take it. Moreover, if the Japs get bogged down here and allow it to consume all their attention, the Allies may be able to pull a devastating flanking attack at some point in late '42 or early '43.

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Post #: 858
RE: India - 4/19/2009 7:56:47 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		I am figuring Bombay won't fall (if at all) for months of time.

When my troops arrived at the end of the line in Australia (Forlorn Hopes), they were at the end of massively long supply line and I did not know then what I do now regarding land combat.  Made that single attack to see the odds ratio and said 'NO' because I didn't want to destroy and/or gut my army all the way over there.  Served no purpose.

Things are different here:
1.   We can pull units out of Manchuria to add to the assault.  I realistically don't think we have to worry about a counter-landing until January 1 1943.  If that is the case then we can attack through that point before making a firm decision.

2.  Control of the sea.  By the time I got to those Aussie hexes, my Fleet was already having issues with Battlewagons.  Not so here.  We have all six and they will be used!

3.  Supplies are FAR Better for us as India produces a goodly amount supplemented by what we bring in.

4.  Air Attack:  We will have 5-6 AF in range with the ENTIRE IJA fighter and bomber strength behind us.  We shoul dbe able to bomb the Port and AF to 100% and destroy supply through air attack.

5.  I only had 2-3 Engineering Regiments in Australia.  This attack will feature at least 6-8 working on the Allies Forts.

I will figure that they start with 250-300,000 supply in the hex.  It is a guess but all those AK weren't hauling stuff OUT!  They certainly weren't hauling in new troops.  Could only be supply.  That is done and over now.  What would an army with an AV of 2300 consume in supplies each day of normal operations?  They are actively bombarding so supply is being used for that too...

Are there other elements I am not thinking of?



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RE: India - 4/19/2009 8:20:54 PM   
paullus99


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Status: offline 		The only thing I can think of at this point, is that the Allied players are concentrating their forces for one LARGE offensive operation, aimed at or around the Home Islands (perhaps Hokkaido or the Kuriles) to establish a presence to start putting pressure on what really needs to be protected - everything else suddenly becoming secondary.

Who knows - of course, if they are concentrated at PH & you attack, well - could be a meat grinder extraordinaire. And not the good way.

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RE: India - 4/20/2009 1:14:37 AM   
ny59giants


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quote:

Karachi
We now know what is in Karachi. The answer is a CRAPLOAD of troops! Total Assault Value about 2,900. Yikes. Recommend our 'Expedition Force' that just entered the hex RUN and fallback while we fortify Malir.


So you want them to be able to run their economy in this hex and generate supply and fuel??

Once you take Ceylon, you will to expand the blockade of Bombay to include Karachi. If not, it could become a massive "PITA."

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Northern Lights - 4/20/2009 1:14:50 AM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		The eastern Aleutians and Anchorage sure are active! More Japanese SS move into the theatre hunting and prowling. A STF will try to bag some shipping at Kodiak.






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D-1 Shimakaze-GO - 4/20/2009 1:16:06 AM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		I was hoping for some excitement and if ONE mine is it then I will be disappointed!






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Post #: 863
Shimakaze-GO SUCCESS! - 4/20/2009 5:34:58 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		Boring. VERY BORING...

All that concern and preparation for nothing.





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RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/20/2009 6:39:00 PM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		I would be SHOCKED if the Line Islands were not well defended, but I've been surprised before. They never built the airbase at Canton beyond size 3 though, whereas all the Line Islands are maxed out. Methinks they are standing there.

One also wonders why they put a Marine Def Bn. on Canton. In my opinion, you either garrison STRONG, or not at all. With all the troops we have in India, they had to know that a division would be PLENTY to hold it. The biggest benefit to taking Canton, is that they can no longer stage 4E to Australia from the USA; Canton is just within range of Cooktown/Cairns, but now they can't make it. That means 4Es can only get there today via Ship. That means we shouldn't have to worry about much from OZ until much later.

India is a problem, either through my bungling of the campaign or Allied strength, but the total AV at Bombay and Karachi actually equals ours in India. That's not good. They could break out of Karachi anytime they want to, and not much we can do about it at this point. We will try Bombay, but I'll be surprised if we take it.

I am invading Ceylon shortly to eliminate that. Would like to hold India most of this year, at some point we will be evacuating.

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RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/20/2009 7:31:54 PM   
modrow

 

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Status: offline 		Once again, I pop up with a few curious questions looking for good answers...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I would be SHOCKED if the Line Islands were not well defended, but I've been surprised before. They never built the airbase at Canton beyond size 3 though, whereas all the Line Islands are maxed out. Methinks they are standing there.



Why should they defend them well ? Basically, there are two options:

a) Nippon is not applying the bulk of its strength elsewhere. Then they will take those Islands if they want them and the unints will be lost.

b) Nippon is applying the bulk of its strength elsewhere. Then those valuable LCUs should be used concentrated to attack somewhere to give you a bad time, not to garrison islands. What good is it to spread them over a number of small islands with small ports and AF and let them sit there in this situation ?

quote:


One also wonders why they put a Marine Def Bn. on Canton. In my opinion, you either garrison STRONG, or not at all. With all the troops we have in India, they had to know that a division would be PLENTY to hold it.


Well... don't know if you are playing for points, I do not believe this is what is behind it (I think Hornblower's analysis doesn't sound bad), and I am not sure whether this really would be a good strategy, but at least in principle this may be used as a reverse point-cookie-approach. I think I recall there are a number of JFBs here who like going after garrisoned line islands because they gobble up points for destroying LCUs and take those out of the game and think I read some people calling thus garrisoned islands point-cookies.

Given the fact that you have your hands quite full in India, why not leaving a token garrison to get good information on what is invading the island, perhaps even hoping to damage a few of the transports so that reloading and moving on is not really an option, and then send an appropriate force to eliminate those units ? In other words, rather than letting e.g. one division per island wait for an invasion which may never come, why not using those troops for a sufficiently big counter-invasion, taylored to the need determined by the token garrison, aiming at elimination of the units you have available in CENTPAC to play with and a) gobbling up those points while b) weakening what you have available for defense ?

Thanks in advance for your (probably opposing) opinions and sharing your insight...

Hartwig

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Post #: 866
RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/20/2009 7:42:37 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Nah, on all accounts.

Early in a game, the Allies decide where to draw the line in the sand.  Hawaii, Midway, Johnston are of highest priority.  Then, given time, the Allies will try to add Palmyra, Christmas, and Jarivs Islands.  That time was present in this game because the Japanese focused on India rather then CenPac.  I would think that Palmrya and would be armed to the teeth, with Christmas right behind it.  I noted from the map, however, that Jarvis is still a dot hex.

I don't think the Allies are trying to entice the Japs to take Canton so that they can re-take it.  Assaults against atolls are messy propositions that gobble up transports and badly disrupt units.  Apparently, the Allies decided that Canton was too exposed to garrison heavily.  That surprises me, but no doubt it seemed like a rational decision to the Allied players in this game.  (I have no doubt that these guys are capable and are following a plan that they think will work well).

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Post #: 867
RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/20/2009 8:07:15 PM   
modrow

 

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Status: offline 		Canoerebel,

thanks for your views (btw - when I checked earlier today I was disappointed not to find an update to your new "celibacy" AAR -I'll look again next and hope I am more lucky, just love that thread). They raise three more questions for me:

a) why does the approach seem to work for the Japanese ? Invasion bonus at work ? Or is it just a myth anyway and a bad idea in any case ? If you say you can draw a line in the sand, it sounds like defending against a JFB who does not focus in the west of the map is possible - is it ? Otherwise, you will have to reinvade anyway...
b) how do you explain the presence of the marines on the island then - just a negligence not to remove them ? To support floatplanes, an AV would have done the job. Why not preserving the units ?
c) does what you say mean that you believe the best approach for the Allied side is to use their forces for securing the places you mention even now (Mid 42) in order to get still more stuff together to be able to strike ?

Thanks

Hartwig

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Post #: 868
RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/20/2009 8:25:15 PM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		We are playing experienced opponents who are not dumb, and pretty good players. So I'm sure they have a plan. Not sure what that plan is exactly, but it's there. It could be they are "saving" all their ground forces for a massive invasion somewhere, like Wake or Marcus or somewhere.



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Post #: 869
RE: What Coman SAID in the first movie... - 4/20/2009 8:45:59 PM   
flaggelant


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quote:

ORIGINAL: hartwig.modrow


b) how do you explain the presence of the marines on the island then - just a negligence not to remove them ? To support floatplanes, an AV would have done the job. Why not preserving the units ?



Negligence does come to mind, since they didn't even bother to move the catalina's somewhere else (at least 1 squadron could have been saved without a loss of nav search/recon on what was comming )


There have been TF's at Palmyra since the start of the operation vs Canton if i remember right, so that's probably going to be "the line"

< Message edited by flaggelant -- 4/20/2009 8:46:33 PM >

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