Cuttlefish
Posts: 2454
Joined: 1/24/2007 From: Oregon, USA Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ComradeP Cuttlefish, I'm sure you've given it plenty of thought, but is not responding with naval force an option? You now know he has plenty of CAP, and thus plenty of carriers. I'm guessing you could also calculate the chances of actually stopping the invasion when you know the number of transports involved, or have a rough estimate. Let's assume you send KB and the Combined Fleet there. You lose a few capital ships, and, say, 2 carriers. He also loses a few capital ships and 2 carriers. It won't hurt him, but you're in trouble if your carriers go down with your elite pilots. Attacking an invading force is basically a gut reaction, many military doctrines emphasize immediate counterattack. However, those counterattacks should be sensible. You would be putting a lot of equipment you can't lose at risk, and Q-Ball doesn't have much he can't afford to lose. The chances of sinking an entire division in their transports so they won't come back are pretty small, and he will eventually have plenty of every kind of ship. Instead of reacting to him, perhaps you could save your forces to fight another day. Take a deep breath, swallow the bitter loss of Timor (you could break up the forces at/around Dili and send a detachment away on a transport so the unit will at least come back when the forces remaining on Timor are destroyed), and plan a counteroffensive. You're reacting to him without a solid plan or intel, a usually disastrous enterprise for Japan: Midway and basically every large naval battle after mid-1943 are good examples. He might be trying to pull you into a war of attrition in a fairly remote area (like Guadalcanal) with little chance of stopping an Allied avalanche considering that he's right next to northern Australia and has plenty of troops and equipment to spare. Of course, this is all just my opinion, it's your war after all, but you are going to miss every ship, plane and pilot you would lose, and Q-Ball isn't going to miss any ship, plane or pilot you get, no matter how many. This is a reasonable analysis. One thing I have to consider is that losing Koepang by itself isn't really a problem for me. The problem is that it opens the door to the DEI, which is loaded with viable bases that have no Japanese presence at all. Above all else he cannot be permitted to penetrate far enough to threaten Palembang and the shipping lanes in the South China Sea. That means holding the line at Java and Borneo. It might make sense to build up there and conserve forces for that inevitable confrontation, but it also might make sense to take some calculated risks and do what damage I can to keep Q-Ball from getting too comfortable in his new possessions. I have several turns to consider the situation before I am tempted to do something violent and rash. That will give me time to assess things and hopefully make some intelligent decisions. Or some not entirely disastrous decisions, anyway. Sometimes that's the best I can do...
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