tucson3217
Posts: 13
Joined: 2/15/2007
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Excuse me if it has been said, I did only a quick scan through the posts...
butthe term or theory the original poster might be thinking of is/are 'kondratieff Waves'
if that is not what you are thinking of, it is stillk something similar based on the theory of repeating behaviour patterns in humans using 'long wave analysis'.
I hink the theory is in part based on the idea that the current generation is warned by their parents and sees the proiblems their parents had and thus we as individuals and a a society through specific laws and stop gaps end up preparing for the last boogey man. This bit of cognative dissonance has many if not most people and institutions dismissing the fears and problems of our grandfathers (often with such phrases that we are somehow 'better' or 'different' now than in the 'old' days. Those old days people were cute and simple, we have it all worked out however, don't worry your pretty little head grandma, we have it all under control now, we are so very advanced).
In this way a 'perfect' storm brews in which society prepares for the last disaster, thus ignoring and almost ensuring the mistakes/errors of two geneartions past are those which will come into being. It is predictive in that not only do we not prepare, but despite warning signs that might signal the brewing of an older danger we have not prepared for or considered. In this way the events of generations past become the more likely outcome, and there in lies some of the basis of contrary investing and forcasting.
An example of society dismissing events they consider 'too old' to worry about can be found in the often heard and accepted phrase used in the media to dismiss 'bad news'. The phrase starts out something like this "housing will not go down much in price if history is any guide. Smart investors know the trends and history of the housing market and point out that NEVER IN THE POST WAR ERA has housing declined over 10% nationwide, peak to trough"
And with one simple sentance the entire great depression is dismissed and not accounted for...after all, that was like forever ago, nothing from back then is relevant.. it has nothing to do with our economy today, the modern economy is better suited to withstand stress. It is different than back then, I mean we have the federal reserve making sure the 'free market' works the way a 'free market' is supposed to! Namley that big banks and big money are 'too big to fail' and that no matter how risky or how far they push the envelope it is better if the middle class and poor pick up the tab for risky loans and ventures. And before you ask, no yo can't have any of the profit they made of of same riskyloans/ventures-afterall they risked your hard earned money for it, and CEOS have to eat too ya know?'
ummmm, yeah. sorry for the rant. little off topic. anyway, the every other generational thing is somewhat interesting to me. Not sure how accurate it really is, but heir is some logic to some of the ideaas behind it. It i at least useful in some broad measure, if not a more specific one. Keep in mind as well that the variance will tend to change and the spacing (measured in years) between 'major events' will tend to become longer since some of the theory of what and how humans precieve future risk is based on our lifespans, and more importantly our 'working years lifespan', which may be twice as long now due to healthcare, lack of physical work and the ability to remain quite productive simply sitting at a keyboard and computer screen. The idea that the wave lengths should become longer inbetween marked events is based in most part due to these so called 'productive years'- these will be the years in which one most likely has the greatest influence on society and our general mass consiousness and futre directions)
here is a link: http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/
(have not read the link, can't vouch if it is anygood or not. but it is a start. be advised that there is a lot of missunderstanding and bull surrounded around this type of theory...bullcrap comeing from botgh sides of the debat-the over zelous and somtimes wildly assuming believers and their bewilldered or downright incredulous opponents.so take from it what you will... :)
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RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years - 
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