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Still Unloading.... - 1/4/2010 7:25:21 PM

Q-Ball

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Thanks everyone for the comments! There is no doubt that dual AARs are the most informative for the reader. Thanks for not tipping anything off, I am glad folks are careful. Loose Lips sinks Virtual Ships and all.....

Combat Report, Oct 2, 1942

Still no Kido Butai! That's the big news of the day. Not sure why. There can only be a few reasons:

1. I was wrong about KB being at Truk on the 28th; that means Searchlight worked better than I expected
2. Cuttlefish is holding back KB for something, or
3. KB is approaching from the NorthWest, rather than Northeast

Not sure what, I suppose #1, but who knows. I still expect them to show-up any day....

Unloading: This is taking a long time. Needless to say, I am presenting a "target rich" environment, so whenever the IJN shows up SOMEONE is going to get toasted. I am counting on the fact that he can't toast 5 invasion fleets at once, which is why I am landing in 5 places.

KOEPANG: Assault troops basically ashore, we attack today. Hope it falls quick.
ENDEH: Falls. Engineers unload today.
MAUMERE: Same as Endeh; it's done
LOMBLEN: Will fall tommorow, troops unloaded, noone home
WAINGAPU: There is an SNLF there, but should be easy work for the 2 UK Division. Should fall tommorow

I really really really need to get some aircover over all this mess; I will feel better once I have some base troops ashore. Then, even if KB shows up, I will have enough there to at least get some airfields built and bring in more troops with some aircover.

Stay tuned, map on the next turn

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/4/2010 7:27:39 PM

Canoerebel

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This is the turning point of the war. To get ashore in big numbers, with interlocking airfields that can be built nicely, is a hammer-blow to the Japanese. Well done, Q-Ball.

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Post #: 482

RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/4/2010 7:29:44 PM

aztez

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Intresting move!

This will either win you this war or severely put you behind.

It is still early and he can bring a lot of airforce plus ground units. So, I still think it will be an close call to say either way.

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Post #: 483

RE: Logistics in Burma-India - 1/4/2010 7:31:22 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Like Chickenboy, I am reading and enjoying both AARs, but unlike Chickenboy I can't control myself:��Q-Ball, please be aware that Cuttlefish is prepping his troops to invade Fort Ord, Corvalis, and Myrtle Beach, and the�KB is currently on weather duty near the Ross Ice Shelf.�

Yesterday I was tempted to post here that intel had located the KB at 37d 49' 04.51" N, 122d 28' 47.56" W and let Q-Ball Google it.

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Post #: 484

RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/4/2010 7:43:57 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: aztez

Intresting move!

This will either win you this war or severely put you behind.

It is still early and he can bring a lot of airforce plus ground units. So, I still think it will be an close call to say either way.

He's already in position to win the war although there's alot of hard fighting ahead. No way Cuttlefish can dislodge a force that powerful - especially given the interlocking airfield coverage and the proxmiity of the Oz bases. No question that this is a decisive strategic victory no matter what happens henceforth.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/4/2010 7:48:57 PM

Smeulders

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Look at the difficulty he had dislodging a single US division from an isolated Noumea, retaking bases that are defended by 2 divisions is virtually impossible for the Japanese at this stage of the war, especially with all the nearby bases providing support.. The Allies seem to be there to stay.

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Post #: 486

RE: Logistics in Burma-India - 1/4/2010 8:28:38 PM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

I would also complement the peanut gallery for keeping their mouths shut.

It has NOT been easy! Both these gallant souls have been opening their thoughts and plans to we lucky readers. I often read one AAR in the morning, and the other in the afternoon, so I can respond without knowledge of what the other has posted.

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Post #: 487

RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/4/2010 8:31:02 PM

Swenslim

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Real war has begun ! Now you should wait a lot of girls knocking you doors :) I meen Sally, Lily, Betty, Helen :)))

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Post #: 488

RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/4/2010 8:31:24 PM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

KOEPANG: Assault troops basically ashore, we attack today. Hope it falls quick.
ENDEH: Falls. Engineers unload today.
MAUMERE: Same as Endeh; it's done
LOMBLEN: Will fall tommorow, troops unloaded, noone home
WAINGAPU: There is an SNLF there, but should be easy work for the 2 UK Division. Should fall tommorow

Thoughts on aircraft: do you have transport planes standing by in northern Australia?

And how did you get TBM squadrons at this date? Or were your losses actually TBF's?

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Post #: 489

RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/4/2010 11:48:51 PM

Q-Ball

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Combat Report, Oct 3, 1942

Thanks for the comments everyone, I will respond more later, figured I would get a small update out.

Harlock, in response to your questions, they are AVENGERS, whatever the designation...I guess that's TBF. Point being, not Devastators. I have a few transport aircraft, but need airstrips first......

Fall of Koepang: 1222 Allied AV conducted a 34-1 attack on the garrison; 4500 were killed, and the rest driven off into the jungle. I suppose that was overkill, but better safe than sorry. Absolutely nothing is worse in WITP/AE then stranding an invasion force. Trust me, I've been there, and probably you have to.

All the other objectives were taken, the only other resistance being an SNLF on Waingapu.

Where is the IJN?: I fully expect them to show-up at this party any day. There are so many targets, they are sure to toast some ships. I can't really prevent that; leaving isn't an option, and he can't sink EVERY transport, so I may as well stay and take my lumps. Unfortunate, but there it is.

The most probable strike point is Lomblen, so I have a BB TF there, and I have CAP over it, but a determined attack will cause alot of Allied sunk ships. I can afford some losses.

Unloading: Unloading will take forever. I at least have some eyes now, with an active PBY unit at Lomblen. Koepang is a mess, but that should be cleaned-up and active in a couple days. That will take alot of pressure off.

Here is the latest map:

Attachment (1)

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 12:00:09 AM

Cap Mandrake

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Santa Maria, Madre de Dios! That was slick.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 12:01:38 AM

ny59giants

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Find ships that can fit below the port and/or ship size limit and form them in a separate TF for each port. Those that carry the highest priority items should go first that fit this guideline. It may not help much, but each of us will learn that the smallest ships need to get the highest priority units when we load them. They simply unload faster.

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Post #: 492

RE: Logistics in Burma-India - 1/5/2010 2:09:31 AM

princep01

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Here I am, munching on peanuts and Mandrake says that! Thanks, Captain. I think I'll send an imperious, white haired, patrican officer by to see you. Nice job so far Adm Q-Ball. Many are feet dry and glad to be on terra firma already.

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Battle of the Shovel - 1/5/2010 3:07:18 AM

Q-Ball

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Combat Report, October 4, 1942

REPRISAL: STILL no sign of Kido Butai.....Cuttlefish probably needs to attack soon, or face LBA from Koepang. I expect surface raiders any day, maybe tonight.

Koepang Airport is now open; there is still Service damage, but close enough, we'll keep repairing overnight. Most of the transports at Koepang are done unloading, and are already headed home to get more engineers at Port Hedland. At Port Hedland, I have an Air HQ, some SeaBees,4 more base force units, some AA.

The other bases are not close to level 1. I will feel more secure when I have airstrips all over, though I think with the number of troops I have at Koepang, it would take the whole Southern Area Army to re-take that base.

The CVs are still off Lomblen, guarding the landings on Flores and Soemba. One more turn, and I will probably withdraw them. Which means KB will probably show tommorow!

Elsewhere: More air attacks over Burma, but no ground attacks yet.

Attachment (1)

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RE: Battle of the Shovel - 1/5/2010 3:14:16 AM

Fishbed

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No strike on these two boats fleeing?

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 4:14:03 AM

Q-Ball

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
Find ships that can fit below the port and/or ship size limit and form them in a separate TF for each port. Those that carry the highest priority items should go first that fit this guideline. It may not help much, but each of us will learn that the smallest ships need to get the highest priority units when we load them. They simply unload faster.�

Very true; I had used most of my small ships though for the assault waves on Koepang, like all the little Dutch xAPs and xAKLs. So most of what's left unfortunatley were larger ones. I can't wait for all those LSTs, LCIs, and other handy craft!!!!!!

quote:

No strike on these two boats fleeing?

No idea....I checked the search on the CVs. storm cloud perhaps? Barges? False sighting? Can't say.

What's Next: So, what now? Assuming KB doesn't show up tommorow and toast all my Carriers, I probably have the Empire in a pickle. No doubt frantic meetings are taking place in Tokyo to determine what the next steps are. This is certainly the #1 priority of the Empire now, to contain this particular breach in the perimeter.

First, probably any planned offensives are cancelled. That's a given. The bulk of the Imperial Fleet is on it's way to cause havoc and trouble, including probably Carriers and Surface units. The IJN is basically intact (only 3 CL and about 10 DD down), including all the LBA, which is also in great shape. The IJN has alot of strike power still.

The problem now, and what really attracted me to this area, is that there are multiple axis of advance, all of them potentially bad for the Empire. It's a defensive nightmare. I could go Northeast to Ambon, directly north over Celebes (my preferred choice), or Northwest toward Java. All of those are a direct threat to the Empire, particularly the last two.

I have to decide also if I am going to attack elsewhere, or pour more resources into this area. I am inclined to just feed this beast for now. I can land on Luganville or the Marshalls or whatever, but what's the point? I'm already closer to the Oil than those places. Sure, I have a long supply line, but I'm the Allies; I have a ton of shipping too, so who cares if it's a long trip? Fuel is the only thing that can put a break on this expansion.

Eventually, I will want to open a "2nd front", to get B-29s to the Mariannas. Until then, I think I'll ignore it all, and just go all-in in the DEI. I think there is more to gain there.

The Solomons, an area that were fought over to the death in the real war, are now almost completely irrelevant. Other than opening the Torres Strait, I won't attack in the Solomons unless the Japanese evacuate it.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 6:31:02 AM

Swenslim

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Only problem for you will be supplying this place. When he will re-arange his forces and rebuild Makassar, Kendari, Ambon and some other bases this gonna be very hard fight for you. He will be able to sink supplying ships with Bettys and Nellys under cover of longlagged Zeroes.
And he can use around 250-300 army bombers to day-night bombings to bring Hell upon heads of this 2 divisions disrupting them completly.

And he has little advantage - all his damaged ships will have Soerabaja, Singapore, Saigon repairshipyards in there disposal.

< Message edited by Swenslim -- 1/5/2010 6:32:49 AM >

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 6:39:01 AM

Canoerebel

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Once the Allies choose a major axis of advance it will always be a long, hard-fought battle. Japan is powerful and, in this case, led by a most capable opponent. Q-Ball faces many months, years even of difficult campaigning.

But make no mistake: this campaign just won him the war. It's 1942, for goodness sake, and the Japanese just found a massive, dangerous bulgeing hernea iprotruding right into their soft-underbelly. The Allies will soon have a multitude of bases close the Japan's vital organs. Q-Ball is right - he has many potential routes of advance now. Lots of bases with big potential for nasty raids on the Japanese SRA.

It will take Q-Ball time to consolidate his gains, build his bases, organizie infrastucture, and fight off the inevitable Japanese counterattack, but my goodness what a position to be in! Yes, he has a long, hard fight ahead, but he won this campaign in October 1942.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 7:46:42 AM

Fishbed

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

What's Next: So, what now?

Tokyo Bay of course, you silly... And before Christmas, obviously. Get back to work now!

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 7:56:06 AM

Fishbed

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Well build the place up, build forts and bring more guys, because he's gonna throw the kitchen sink - that's what I'd do at his place anyway.
If you built up Darwin nicely, you can start to fly Dakotas groups for troop transfer from there. With sufficient CAP over Koepang, you will be able to tranfer divisions in a matter of days, while you may bring their heavy material by fast transport.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 9:51:51 AM

veji1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Once the Allies choose a major axis of advance it will always be a long, hard-fought battle.� Japan is powerful and, in this case, led by a most capable opponent.� Q-Ball faces many months, years even of difficult campaigning.

But make no mistake:� this campaign just won him the war.� It's 1942, for goodness sake, and the Japanese just found a massive, dangerous bulgeing hernea iprotruding right into�their soft-underbelly.� The Allies will soon have a multitude of bases close the Japan's vital organs.��Q-Ball is right - he has many potential routes of advance now.� Lots of bases with big potential for nasty raids on the Japanese SRA.

It will take Q-Ball time to consolidate his gains, build his bases, organizie infrastucture, and fight off the inevitable Japanese counterattack, but my goodness what a position to be in!� Yes, he has a long, hard fight ahead, but he won this campaign in October 1942.

I am not sure it will take Q-ball that long. This will test the changes between WITP and AE with so many more buildable bases. If, and its my hunch, the allies can build up this network of supporting bases quickly enough they will be very very efficient very quickly.

All they have to do is channel all their new troops through this axis, whether they are Brits for Burma or US for SOPAC and CENTPAC, and blow this open big time...

The only legitimately slowing factor is the state of the planes pools. There will be fighting and good planes will bear the brunt, when there are hardly any P38 lefts and F4Fs have suffered, well you are bound to pause.

But for me the Japanese are finished by the end of 1943, ie with no fuel left, industry in shambles and their AF and Navy broken...

Let's see what Cuttlefish can muster, but this AAR and a few others show that moreso than in WITP, going for Northern OZ is a must in AE to protect all those bases in the DEI that are just too numerous to be properly defended by the japanese player.

It seems that in AE, Noumea and the Hebrides are a lot less important than in WITP, where they were THE staging point for a counterattack, while the DEI is a lot more fragile and therefore buffering it with Northern OZ almost mandatory.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 10:34:21 AM

ComradeP

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Congratulations on the safe landing Q-Ball.

It does seem that this was a bit too easy. Even if both KB and the Combined Fleet had shown up, it would've been unlikely that they would have been able to sink most of your warships or invasion fleet. With the numbers you are throwing at him, you would've made it ashore no matter what, it seems. You also send lots of ships away to act as a diversion, an Allied player could also use those ships to create a far more target rich environment which will make it statistically far more unlikely that KB or the Combined Fleet will destroy even a single invasion fleet, as there would be too many targets.

Besides showing the differences between WitP and AE, this also shows that the Allies can already create a more or less unstoppable avalanche that can more or less safely land in an area where Japan is vulnerable without a lot of defensive potential and too many bases to defend or capture (looking at the map, when your forces march north-west on Flores, you'll be greeted in Dutch instead of Japanese) in late 1942, which is very early. The Japanese have no time to realistically build up the area, so further testing by other players will have to show if this tactic is going to be the textbook killing blow tactic for AE.

< Message edited by ComradeP -- 1/5/2010 11:31:47 AM >

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 11:13:28 AM

Swenslim

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Finished in 1943 ??? Are you kidding ??? No allied plane until 3/44 can hit Palembang and even Balikpapan from Timor. He need to take Java to cut oil shipping from Sumatra.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 11:14:36 AM

Swenslim

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Real war just begun and Japan will punish arrogant allies :)

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 12:25:51 PM

veji1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Swenslim

Finished in 1943 ??? Are you kidding ??? No allied plane until 3/44 can hit Palembang and even Balikpapan from Timor. He need to take Java to cut oil shipping from Sumatra.

Sure but if/once his hold on Timor is secured he has now the foot in the door. Japan can't defend everything, if Cuttlefish can't retake Timor he will try to defend his hold on the DEI and mainly along a south-north line to protect Java and Borneo. with his troops there Qball will be able to widen the gap on the Celebes/Sorong interval, aiming at getting to the Jolo Sea and from there nuking Borneo and cutting to the South China sea via the south PIs.. with the battle intensifying in the DEI the Pacific will be more vulnerable and he could than elect to completely bypass SOPAC and go straight for a Central pacific route aiming at Palau to join up with his DEI attack... I recon that by early 44 he could be standing at the door of Manilla from the South of the PI and with Bases in northern Borneo, south PI effectively interdicting the South China Seas...

Maybe I am too optimistic on the Allies abilities, or underestimate the logistical strain he will be confronted with, we shall see.

Basically there are 2 major variables :
1/ Cuttlefish goes for the big battle and tries to throw him out :
1/a) succeeds, probably at a prohibitive cost and has bought time for the empire although the allies have probably used the diversion to their advantage in Burma and CENTPAC.
1/b) fails and then the Jap AF and Navy are wrecked and the allies will advance quite quickly.

2/ Cuttlefish consolidates his defenses in the area, tries to keep his fleet as a fleet in being close by, forcing the allies to strongly protect each hop and therefore advancing slowly, trying also to gently point them to areas of less vital interest for Japan, ie Celebes, South PI, hoping that all the process will be slow...

2/ is surely better than 1/b). 1/b) is game over in late 43 while maybe he can have 2/ last until mid44... I don't know, this is my guestimate at this stage.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 1:19:29 PM

yubari

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Great AAR Q-Ball, very exciting for the past couple of weeks. I have to say that, barring a serious carrier battle defeat, I think this is a war winning blow for the allies. Getting maybe three or four of those airfields operational would make any Japanese counter attack suicidal, a Guadalcanal-style battle of attrition to the power of three.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 4:46:39 PM

BletchleyGeek

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Thank you for taking the pain of describing your game here, it's become one of the most interesting AARs I've ever read.

And hats off to your huge operational success

. Very classy :)

However I do disagree with viewing this operation as a major strategic victory *already* - it won't be such until you score a huge tactical success against major naval and aerial Japanese assets. However, I recall - painfully to my chagrin - from my WITP days that carrier battles between evenly matched opponents can convey catastrophically one-sided losses for either side. You're rolling on the 1:1 column, so to speak. What are the player options in WITP:AE to increase the odds of avoiding such catastrophic results?

I also wonder what would be your "B Plan" in case Cuttlefish manages to decisively claim naval and/or aerial superiority in the area. Are you considering this a "do or die" gamble? What are your plans if disaster strikes the combined CW-US forces?

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 5:00:44 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Swenslim

Only problem for you will be supplying this place. When he will re-arange his forces and rebuild Makassar, Kendari, Ambon and some other bases this gonna be very hard fight for you. He will be able to sink supplying ships with Bettys and Nellys under cover of longlagged Zeroes.
And he can use around 250-300 army bombers to day-night bombings to bring Hell upon heads of this 2 divisions disrupting them completly.

And he has little advantage - all his damaged ships will have Soerabaja, Singapore, Saigon repairshipyards in there disposal.

I disagree.

He has initial advantages because of the strength of his Navy and airforce. However, he has no choice but to fight an attritional battle. Just like the Guadacanal campaign-regardless of any initial victories, he is bound to lose out. This is really the main goal of any Allied player. Keep your forces intact during the rough times and then gain a foothold that forces a battle on your terms. It is October now. The Allies might feel some pain yet but I doubt they are going to be thrown out.

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RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/5/2010 6:32:57 PM

Q-Ball

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Combat Report, Oct 5, 1942

FORAGER: 2 Indian Bdes reached Warazup; tommorow they will attack the empty dot base, and then move to Myiktinya. I originally planned to build an airstrip at Warazup for supply purposes, but I don't think I need to. The RR line is firmly blocked, I have cratered the airstrip at Myikinya, and there are no engineers there, just an Infantry Regt. (IJA Inf Regts have no organic engineers). Thus, there is no way in or out of Myikinya, so I need merely to march there with 400 AV or so to take it.

REPRISAL: I am closing out OPERATION REPRISAL, as we have met all our objectives. The objective was to get troops and base forces ashore at several points in the Southern DEI. This is accomplished. That isn't to say we are here to stay, but now our operation moves from less a single event, to a long campaign of building and staying where we are.

All our combat forces are ashore. I have unloaded everything I need to at Koepang, so this should be a major airbase in short order. I am more worried about the smaller bases like Lomblen and Maumere, which are not secure. Unloading there is going very slowly, as well as airstrip building. They are also very exposed to IJN surface attack. I expect the IJN to intervene shortly at either Maumere or Lomblen, probably Maumere.

Today, 40 Bettys and a Zero escort attacked my CVs off Lomblen. We put up a substaintial Cap and shot down 29 Bettys; no hits were scored. We lost 20 Wildcats in the exchange, so I moved the CV's back 3 hexes. I have 2 airgroups on the CVs set to LRCAP of Maumere and Waingapu. With the TBF and Wildcat losses, I do not want an engagement with KB right now. The rest of my Navy will have to fend for themselves.

Koepang is full repaired and operational. P-38s there are providing LRCAP over Maumere and Lomblen, but if KB shows up, all they will do is shoot down some Kates in return. I now have over 120 fighters there for aircover purposes. I need the base to be bigger to get some SBDs there.

I have moved RN BBs to cover the unloading at Lomblen and Maumere. They are very exposed to either surface or air attack. I have to cover the transports though or stop unloading, so I have to risk it. I am using RN BBs because several are due for withdrawl in a few months anyway. Use 'em or lose 'em!

Where is the IJN? No idea. Intel reports a DD moving to Balikpapan, that's probably some sort of forces. Might make sense to move there and top off, also I am not expecting an attack from that direction (or maybe I am now!). I'm sure I'll find out soon enough where the IJN is. The fact that I haven't seen them yet leads me to beleive that Cuttlefish is gathering a big force to swamp me all at once.

I am OK with a bloodbath as long as it's BOTH our blood. After all, the Allies can replace losses, the Japanese can't.

< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 1/5/2010 6:34:45 PM >

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(in reply to crsutton)

Post #: 509

RE: Still Unloading.... - 1/6/2010 4:00:15 AM

Q-Ball

Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline

October 6,7 1942

There was very little action the last couple days in the DEI. None in fact. I am mystified at this point where the IJN is. I have unloaded most ships, so if Cuttlefish strikes now, it will yield less results. I guess the IJN was really that out of position. Early on, though I don't think I could have been stopped, an attack would have at least sunk a bunch of transports and killed some troops, so that's something.

Koepang is expanding under aircover. I am building all the other bases, that now all have at least 10K in supplies and 1 Seabee Unit, plus base troops. They should all be serviceable airfields in a few days, which will improve security.

At this point, I am thinking ahead. The US 43rd Inf Div. is prepping for Kendari, and loading in San Fran. By the time it gets to DEI, which is about 1 1/2 months, should be ready. In the short-term, I am prepping 2 Australian Bdes for a landing on Dili, I just need to beat the IJA to Dili. For the most part, the next month or so will be building, consolidation, and prep for the next targets. Soon, it will be time to start planning the next operation: OPERATION HALBERD, the invasion of the Celebes.