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RE: DEI Offensives - 3/29/2010 7:01:13 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/16/44 and 1/17/44
 
Moulmein:  Back-to-back Allied deliberate attacks come in at 1:1 and 1:2 and cost the Japanese far more in casualties.  The city is close to falling, but not quite there.  The Allied troops are quite disrupted and will need at least two, and perhaps as many as four, days rest to recover for the next attack.  Unless reinforcements arrive before then the city should fall.

China:  It appears that Miller is using the ceasefire to withdraw troops from more exposed frontline positions including Liuchow and Hengyang.  That's fine as it permits the Allies to take those bases and move on to the next objectives.  More importantly, I think this will force Miller to devote more attention, troops, and supplies to China.  I really don't care if the Allies accomplish little or nothing as long as they tie down a decent amount of Japanese forces.

DEI:  The Allies will recon Dadjangas, Mindanao, tomorrow.  If lightly held they will proceed with a quick invasion effort.  This will be backed up by eight CVEs since CAP will be hard to come by (Talaud Island's airbases is still a  level one).  Base building goes well in this region, so if the Allied end up invading Ternate as planned there should be plenty of land-based CAP.  6th Division arrives at Darwin tomorrow.  The final transport convoy in what has been a long train of convoys will reach Townsville tomorrow.  By the time it arrives at Darwin, I'll know whether I'm proceeding with the invasion of Ternate or, instead, shifting focus to a rapid move on Mindanao.

Kamikazee:  Thirty Frances torpedo bombers hit an ASW TF at Akyab.  Torpedoes sank a DE and a KV.  Two kamikazee destroyed a PG.  I don't know if this means that kamikazees have been activated, or if this unit was on a straightforward naval strike mission when two pilots went bezerk.  If kamikazees have been activated, Miller was aiming for a strike against the RN BB/BC TF that just hit Japanese shipping at Moulmein, but it had withdraw to Chittagong to reprovision.

KB:  No sign of the KB since the Japanese operation to reinforce Ambon back in November.

(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: DEI Offensives - 3/30/2010 2:45:59 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/18/44 and 1/19/44
 
Moulmein:  The Allied troops will need two more days to recover sufficiently from their last attack before trying again.  There's a decent chance that Moulmein will fall within the week.  Then Miller has a choice - defend Tavoy and the Malay peninsula or head east to Bangkok.  The Allies will divide forces (and allocate reinforcements on the way) to press Tavoy, but the bulk of the force will aim for Bangkok.  It seems that Miller has pulled out his air forces since Allied bombers hit Tavoy and Moulmein without opposition.  I'm guessing that he's transferred the aircraft to the DEI.

DEI:  Dadjangas (on Mindanao) is lightly held by one unit about 2k strong, so Allied transports at Morotai are loading 7th Marines, 1st Marine Tanks, and an engineering unit.  I may try a snap invasion of Dadjangas in a few days - counting on suprrise, speed, and two day turns to get the troops ashore despite what could be massive opposition from Japanese air and naval forces.

KB:  I'm wondering if Miller isn't orchestrating a surprise attack of some sort - combing the KB and land-based air (including aircraft stripped from Burma?) to bring massive force to bear on a single point.  I can't provide absolute protection for the myriad Allied bases in the region, but I've tried to shore things up so that such an attack wouldn't be devastating.  The main precaution was to ensure that Darwin - with its abundance of transports, combat ships, and carriers - is adequately protected.  With about 250 fighters at the base plus those on the CVLs and CVEs, I think so.

SWPac:  Troops at Townsville are prepping for Port Moresby.  Miller has pulled out most of the garrison, so I should be able to pick up this base once I have ships available.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1352
RE: DEI Offensives - 3/31/2010 2:42:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/20/44 to 1/23/44
 
Moulmein:  While the Allied army was recovering from disruption, the Japanese army vacated Moulmein, withdrawing along to road to the south.  The Allies took the base on the 22nd.  Thus, primarily through maneuver, the Allies have taken Rangoon, Pegu, and Moulmein in a matter of a few months.  The campaign continues, but it's worth a brief moment of satisfaction on what has been accomplished up to this point.

What's Next for the Japanese:  Looking at the road network south of Moulmein, the only move that makes sense to me is for the Japanese army to move to Bangkok.  By doing so, the Japanese essentially will concede Tavoy, but I don't think they have a choice.  The Nippon army should be in bad shape after three successive defeats.

What's Next for the Allies:  Some of the Allied units at Moulmein are in rough shape and badly in need of extended recovery and rebuilding, especially the smaller Indian units and the Chinese divisions.  But the big Indian divisions are strong and reinforcements are on the way.  A small Allied army will invest Tavoy while a larger Allied army may move directly on Bangkok, or may take an alternate road system further north that would take them to the city adjacent to and just north of Bangkok.  If successful in taking this city, it would permit the Allies to continue advancing east toward Vietnam without getting tied down to a campaign for Bangkok.  Since the ultimate objective is to reach the shores of the South China Sea, that may be my preference (unless Miller makes a mistake of vast dimensions and elects to retreat to Tavoy instead of Bangkok, in which case I'll move quickly on the latter).

China:  Ceasefire will end in about a week and the Japanese appear to be withdrawing from Liuchow and Hengyang.

DEI:  I sent two CVE TFs toward the straights between Nalmea and the Moluccas to see if I could scare up anything.  I think the bait worked because scores of Japanese fighters and strike aircraft sortied...but by then the CVEs had pulled back.  The Japanese raid accordingly diverted against the mass of shipping at Morotai.  BB Massachusetts took two hits from Kamikazee plus three torpedoes.  She's not in too bad shape, actually, and I'm going to try to get her to Boela, a more secure base, over the next few days.  CA Suffolk suffered light damage and an xAP suffered heavy damage.  Quite a bee hive.  The Japanese lost alot of aircraft, though.

Dadjangas vs. Ternate:  Miller just reinforced Dadjangas, so I'm scrubbing the snap invasion.  Instead, the massive Allied invasion force currently at Darwin will begin loading for Ternate in two days.  While I'd prefer not to get bogged down in a lengthy siege of this stoutly garrisoned base, the fact that its location is strategically important, the size of its airfield (five), and the fact that I can offer my ships a fair amount of LRCAP from the plethora of nearby Allied bases makes it the best option in my evaluation.  In other words, the Allies are going to choose smaller, more secure steps over bolder, much more risky leaps against less defended bases.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/31/2010 2:44:31 PM >

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RE: DEI Offensives - 3/31/2010 6:03:54 PM   
sfbaytf

 

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I'm enjoying this AAR. Seems like we've taken a similar approach, although your opponent appears to have held onto Port Moresby longer than mine did. Your pace in the DEI is faster than I achieved.

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Post #: 1354
RE: DEI Offensives - 3/31/2010 10:17:50 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/24/44 and 1/25/44
 
Burma:  I cannot fathom this, but it appears that the Japanese army is withdrawing south towards Tavoy rather than east towards Bangkok.  This makes no sense because Tavoy is at the end of a dead-end road, meaning supply and evacuation can only be accomplished by sea.  It also means that a large Allied army can move on what seems to be a lightly garrisoned Bangkok.  Maybe I'm missing something, or maybe Miller has other reinforcements nearing Bangkok.  If not...Wow!  On a separate note, a Chindit unit will try a para-assault on lightly garrisoned Raeheng tomorrow. 

Operation Kennesaw Mountain (Invasion of Ternate):  I believe this will be the largest invasion force I've ever assembled.  In fact, it's so large that the Allies cannot tote everybody in a single lift.  The Allies have 3000+ AV prepped for Ternate, including five divisions and two-plus division equivalents.  The best I'll be able to manage in the first wave is three divisions (two U.S. and one Aussie) and a UK brigade, for approximately 1430 AV.  The first wave will also include an HQ, two combat engineers, three field artillery units, and two anti-tank units.  These units have begun loading aboard transports at Darwin.  They'll be facing 40,000 Japanese troops - probably close to two divisions that are likely well-entrenched but low on supply.  D-Day is probably in two weeks.

Operation Alatoona Pass (Invasion of Manado):  If Kennesaw Mountain goes well, the Allies will promptly follow with the invasion of Manado, which is equally stoutly defended.  In that operation, however, the Allies will not make a landing directly at the enemy-held hex.  There's a dot hex adjacent to Manado and connected by road, so the Allies will land there.

(in reply to sfbaytf)
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RE: DEI Offensives - 3/31/2010 10:25:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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A few more words about the invasion of Ternate.  Will Miller use his carriers or not?  This is of tremendous importance in this case, because the Allies can't afford to lose a signficant number of troop transports.  I'm way too short on them. 

I believe that the sizeable number of Allied air bases in the vicinity of Ternate can provide sufficient LRCAP to adequately protect the invasion fleet against land-based air.  But carrier strikes could overwhelm my defenses, so I'll commit the Allied CVE fleet - some 10 to 12 CVE.

The Allies will have but two battleships available - North Carolina and Alabama.  Miller definately has two available, but some of his battle-damaged BBs may be ready for action at this point.

So this operation could result in a titanic engagement...or not.  I'll have to assume that it will, but there's a chance Miller won't wish to commit his combat ships and carriers with so many Allied air bases in the vicinity.  That would be nice.

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RE: DEI Offensives - 4/1/2010 12:14:44 AM   
JohnDillworth


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What kind of anti-ship aircraft do you have at your land air bases if the KB or a few BB's show up?


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RE: DEI Offensives - 4/1/2010 1:40:08 AM   
Canoerebel


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Good question, John. The answer reveals my approach to handling a dilemma.

At the moment, the Allies have about five SBD squadrons and one or two TBF squadrons at forward bases. They've picked off a handful of Japanese transports and escorts in recent weeks, so Miller knows they're there.

When the invasion transports approach Ternate, I'll withdraw all strike aircraft and insert the maximum number of fighters. I'm doing this for two reasons:

1) Miller can put a tremendous number of aircraft at any one point, so I need max LRCAP capability.

2) A relative handful of strike aircraft (even, say, 150 SBD and TBF) would get chewed up anyway, with escorts or without escorts.

So I feel like I'm better off putting all my marbles in the CAP bucket with the hope that Miller's awareness of strike aircraft will carry over for awhile.

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RE: DEI Offensives - 4/1/2010 2:12:56 AM   
JohnDillworth


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Tough choice and I wish you well. If I had an HQ in range and Avengers I would be temped to try and leave some torpedo aircraft up front. I understand your position. You just can't sacrifice any transports, but keep em close in case he wants to follow you down.


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Again - 4/1/2010 7:11:59 AM   
Heeward


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As you have indicated having a shortage of invasion shipping, aircraft carriers and heavy naval units in general, reconsider another land / land based air campaign. That place is Java. It directly threatens one of his major sources of oil - Soerabaja. You have the land forces to start it - five divisions and supporting units. This is less then the six I originally recommended but is most likely for a good start. You also indicate that you have excess strike aircraft, and here you can employee them.
With the direct push into French Indo-China you complete the isolation of Malaya and Sumatra. The oil sources along the west coast of Borneo become vulnerable to either an Island hopping campaign or direct assault. The other benefit of this drive is after the initial lodgment your fleet is then free for another drive or reconstruction / rehabilitation. You can then drive up the coast to Formosa bypassing the Philippines if you so choose.



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RE: Again - 4/1/2010 8:56:20 AM   
Canoerebel


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I think Mindanao is a better target, long term, than Java.  Java offers one advantage - severing Japan from resources.  Mindanao offers two - severing Japan from resources and closing with Japan proper to permit strategic bombing.  If I change my main vector toward Java, I'll find myself far from Japan by the end of the year and that would be bad. 

Not that Java isn't a viable and important target, it's just too late for me to shift priorities at this point.  Too, I have an army 100% prepped for Ternate and another 100% prepped for Manado.  I can take both of these under cover of land-based CAP.

Finally, Java will be more strongly garrisoned that Mindanao.

The Allies had considered switching vectors from north (Mindanao) to west (Java) about three or four months ago, but ultimately decided to head north.  It's too late at this point to change plans.

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RE: Again - 4/1/2010 10:41:03 AM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think Mindanao is a better target, long term, than Java.  Java offers one advantage - severing Japan from resources.  Mindanao offers two - severing Japan from resources and closing with Japan proper to permit strategic bombing.  If I change my main vector toward Java, I'll find myself far from Japan by the end of the year and that would be bad. 

Not that Java isn't a viable and important target, it's just too late for me to shift priorities at this point.  Too, I have an army 100% prepped for Ternate and another 100% prepped for Manado.  I can take both of these under cover of land-based CAP.

Finally, Java will be more strongly garrisoned that Mindanao.

The Allies had considered switching vectors from north (Mindanao) to west (Java) about three or four months ago, but ultimately decided to head north.  It's too late at this point to change plans.


Interesting analysis. Though my opinion is that the Allies can turn Java into a Japanese deathtrap if they start an operation there, you are absolutely right that in your situation it would
mean a shift of direction, with less benefit as you already progressed far beyond the point where changing directions would increase the offensive tempo.

In Millers position and if he can see this developement, I´d evacuate Java though, and only leave a token force there because if you continue he would need these forces elsewhere desperately.
Depends on how you can outguess him. Not attacking Java makes his choice what to defend a bit easier. Thats the disadvantage of offensives with only 1 or 2 directions.


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RE: Again - 4/1/2010 11:15:11 AM   
Canoerebel


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In my WitP game with Miller, I did invade Java.  The invasion occurred in 1943 while the Allies were also moving from Timor into the Celebes and Moluccas.  The RN led a sizeable armada carrying British and Indian troops to the beaches on the south coast of Java.  The Allies got ashore and ended up taking some three or four cities.  Miller reacted with great fervor and hostility, nearly destroying the RN in the process and eventually booting the Allies from Java. 

But that was well, well worth it for the Allies, because it served as a massive distraction.  While Miller was so focused on Java, the Allies waltzed north and made startling progress toward the Philippines.

From that experience I learned that Miller really, really obsesses over Java and its oil.  I think he'll have it carefully guarded in our game.  However, if recon shows Java is not well-protected, the Allies can move that way at a propitious time.

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RE: Again - 4/1/2010 1:18:06 PM   
JohnDillworth


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In my game against the AI I took Java and it was a great staging area for the rest of the war. Plenty of fuel, plenty of air fields and a ship repair facility (the biggest bonus)! IT was a great place to ship millions of tons of supply from cape town the middle east My bombers quickly neutered Singapore and closed the straits to Burma. It also pretty much shuts down Borneo and you can pick off the good bases one at a time. On the other hand, a strong position in the Philippines denies the Japanese player all the oil/fuel anyway, and you really don't have to fight in Java if you don't want to.
my 2 cents

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RE: Again - 4/1/2010 1:59:42 PM   
Canoerebel


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I agree, John.  Java would make a great base - and really hurts the Japanese - but the Allies need to be working towards Java by early '43 and ought to be landing there by early '44.  IE, it should take a vast amount and length of preparation to really do a Java campaign justice.

Since it's already '44 and since all my troops are prepping for other destinations, I feel sure it's too late for me to shift to Java.  So "Mindanao Bound!" is our cry.

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RE: Again - 4/1/2010 2:35:50 PM   
wpurdom

 

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Sounds like good analysis to me as long as every couple of weeks you try to recon it as well as you can. Java is likely to be well-defended unless/until your opponent feels he desparately needs the troops in the Philippines or SE Asia.

Also thorough recons might distract your opponent, if your not actually invading.

< Message edited by wpurdom -- 4/1/2010 2:36:58 PM >

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Point and Click - 4/1/2010 3:16:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/26/44 and 1/27/44
 
Point and Click:  After several month's absence, the KB showed up - bringing massed air squadrons to bear on a single point - Allied shipping at Morotai.  The results were mixed, but damage incurred will hamper the Japanese strategically while the Allies probably won't be affected strategically.

The Allies sent out the first strikes:  27 SBD from Morotai torched four unprotected AKL near Manado.  Then 24 SBD escorted by 100 high-quality fighters squared off against the KB - or a stout Mini-KB - and a CAP of 130 fighters.  The Allies lost 18 planes, the Japanese 3.  No hits scored.

First day Japanese strikes:  150 IJN fighters escort 41 strike aircraft against shipping at Morotai.  The CAP of 81 fighters downs 15 aircraft while losing 7.  Damage to ships:

     xAK John Alden, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     LSI(L) Dunedin Star, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
     xAK John T. McMillan, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     xAK Kiangsu, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
     AK Antrim, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk

A second strike of 29 fighters and 28 strike aircraft faces 13 fighters protecting ships at Lobolata (adjacent to Morotai).  The Japanese lose 4 aircraft, the Allies none, with the following damage:

     xAP B. F. Shaw, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     AM Effective, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk

Allied First-day PM strike:  27 SBD do the following damage to shipping near Manado:

     xAKL Tsuneshima Maru, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAKL Konei Maru, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAKL Fukkai Maru, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
     xAKL Genmei Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAKL Nanko Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
     xAKL Ryuto Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
     xAKL Nissyo Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire

Then 21 bomb-equipped TBF square off against 12 Zero.  Three TBF are downed, but the rest manage this:

     xAKL Nissen Maru #2, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     xAKL Tenshin, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
     xAKL Tsuneshima Maru, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage

First-Day PM IJN Strikes:  90 fighters and 70 strike aircraft vs. a CAP of 50 fighters.  The Japanese lose 16 aircraft, the Allies one.  The damage:

     CL Mobile, Torpedo hits 1
     DE Fleming, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     AK Lyra, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy damage
     xAK John Carroll, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AK Naos, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy damage
     xAK Josiah Royce, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires

Then 28 Zero and 50 strike aircraft vs. 9 CAP.  IJN lose 5 aircraft, Allies none.  Damage:

     DD Talbot, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     DD Gilmer, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
     LST-40, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     SC-749, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     xAK Elisavet, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
     xAP B. F. Shaw, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
     xAP Cape Mendocino, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
     AM Chief, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     xAP Golden Eagle, Kamikaze hits 1,  on fire

Japanese second-day A.M. attack:  66 Zero and 47 strike aircraft face 41 CAP over Morotai.  IJN loses 17 aircaft, the Allies 2, for this damage: AK Naos, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk.

Then 35 Zero and 4 Jill face 16 fighters over Lobolata, the IJN losing one and the Allies two, with the following:  DD Talbot, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk.

Allied second-day A.M. attack:  51 unescorted SBD face 36 Zero on CAP; 12 SBD are flamed, but accomplish this:
     CVE Unyo
     CVE Chuyo, Bomb hits 1
     CVE Shinyo, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     CVE Hosho
     CVE Kaiyo
     CVE Taiyo

Then, at a cost of five aircraft 16 fighters and 15 SBD contribute this:

     CVE Taiyo, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     CVE Chuyo
     CVE Shinyo,  heavy fires
     CVE Kaiyo

Next, at a cost of two aircraft, 13 TBF and 9 fighters contribute this:

     CVE Shinyo, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CVE Taiyo, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires
     CLAA Tenryu
     CVE Kaiyo

Japanese second-day P.M. strikes:  70 fighters and 45 strike aircraft vs. 21 fighters, the IJN losing 9 and the Allies 2, with this:

     LSI(L) Dunedin Star, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     AK Lyra, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AK Sterope, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Josiah Royce, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Lawrence, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires

Analysis:  The IJN probably lost far more aircraft than advertised, but scored decently against merchants with a few hits against smaller combat ships.  Any decline in lift capacity is a blow to the Allies, so the damage will be felt.  The Japanese, on the other hand, should have three CVE out of commission and have given away the location of a sizeable group of carriers - not an insignifcant matter given the upcoming Allied invasion of Ternate. Finally, the "somewhat" effectiveness of Allied strike aircraft against the carriers and those AKLs may help dissuade Miller from using them in such proximity to Morotai, and that would be just fine with me.

Burma:  The Japanese army continues to retreat toward Tavoy rather than Bangkok, a situation that has me totally mystified.  The Chindit assault on Raeheng didn't accomplish anything.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/1/2010 3:23:24 PM >

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RE: Point and Click - 4/1/2010 4:32:50 PM   
Canoerebel


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Now that I've seen the turn file, an update regarding Japanese force size and disposition:

1.  The KB is stationed near Talaud Island, while a Mini-KB is providing a cover for transports at Ternate.  I think the Japanese are bringing in supplies.

2.  Allied transports for the Ternate invasion continue to load - the Allies will actually be able to carry roughly 1800 AV in the first wave.  D-Day may be as soon as eight days away.

3.  Miller is landing reinforcements at Bangkok, so he'll have armies both there and at Tavoy.  But unless he signficinatly reinforces Bangok he may have miscalculated, because the Allies have two fresh divisions on the way to augment their army.  Also, Bangkok, like Rangoon, can be bypassed, isolated, and bombed to death.  So if Miller doesn't look at the map very carefully and plan accordingly, he may find himself in a fix in a few weeks.

4.  The ceasefire has ended in China with Japanse units moving (mainly retreating to consolidate) all over the place.  I expect to find Liuchow and Hengyang vacant.  If so, the Chinese will pour through and move on Kukong and Kanhsien.  The Allies will also try river crossing against Sian and Ankang in the north.  Nanning, bolstered by the troops recently at Liuchow, won't be possible now.

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RE: Point and Click - 4/1/2010 4:45:19 PM   
witpqs


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So, if you advance far enough down the Malay peninsula and build big airbases there, and you already have (and get more) big airbases on the other side of Borneo, you cut off oil from Sumatra, Java, and Borneo near completely then, right?

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RE: Point and Click - 4/1/2010 5:35:10 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

So, if you advance far enough down the Malay peninsula and build big airbases there, and you already have (and get more) big airbases on the other side of Borneo, you cut off oil from Sumatra, Java, and Borneo near completely then, right?


The grand plan is for the Burma army to head east to the coast of the South China Sea in Vietnam; the DEI army will head west or northwest to take ports on the South China Sea in the Philippines and/or north Borneo. The combination of the two movements will choke Japanese shipping from the DEI.

Of course, the Allies will look for other opportunities, such as moving down the Malay Peninsula, but that's not the preferred vector at this time.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/1/2010 5:50:05 PM >

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RE: Point and Click - 4/1/2010 5:54:41 PM   
John 3rd


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Dan,

If I was in Miller's shoes I might try something wild (surprise).  Watch your left flank.  Java could serve as a perfect platform to lop off your salient once you have moved far enough forward.  In fact, I might ENCOURAGE your move into the southern Philippines and then try to retake Timor.  This is probably a wild thought but it jumped out at me as I caught up with the AAR.

.02...


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1371
Flood the Zone - 4/2/2010 12:49:23 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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It took me hours to analyze the map, the disposition of forces and availability of reinforcements, and possible Japanese moves.  The end result could mean a sharp engagement if the Japanese carriers and transport fleets remain in the area - or much ado about nothing should Miller retreat.  The plan:

1.  About a half-dozen six-boat PT TFs will hit Ternate, where Miller has/had many transports and some CVE.  Two small CL/DD forces - one from Boela and one from Ambon - will also head that way.

2.  Two or three PT TFs will patrol the waters in the vicinity of the current locations of the KB.

3.  The two Allied CA/DD TFs at Morotai will head south at flank speed, as will most of the merchant shipping there.

4.  Allied 4EB will hammer Ternate's airfield (planning to keep it shut down) and port (hoping to hit any damaged CVEs that sought refuge there).  I also hope the 4EB will "use up" the Japanese CAP.

5.  I've loaded the forward bases - and there are a bunch of them (Boela, Ambon, Namlea, Oti, Lobalato, Morotai, one near Morotai with a name that escapes me, and Sorong all are level three to seven, and Talaud Island, a level two) - with top-notch fighters and fresh SBD, TBF, and Beufort squadrons.  Since I have three Air HQ in the area, all of the torpedo planes can carry torps.

6.  The bulk of the Ternate invasion armada will weigh anchor at Darwin and move north toward Taberfane Island.  I'd like to time their arrival at Ternate with the withdrawl of the Japanese carriers.

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 1372
RE: Flood the Zone - 4/2/2010 1:16:18 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

It took me hours to analyze the map, the disposition of forces and availability of reinforcements, and possible Japanese moves. The end result could mean a sharp engagement if the Japanese carriers and transport fleets remain in the area - or much ado about nothing should Miller retreat. The plan:

1. About a half-dozen six-boat PT TFs will hit Ternate, where Miller has/had many transports and some CVE. Two small CL/DD forces - one from Boela and one from Ambon - will also head that way.

2. Two or three PT TFs will patrol the waters in the vicinity of the current locations of the KB.

3. The two Allied CA/DD TFs at Morotai will head south at flank speed, as will most of the merchant shipping there.

4. Allied 4EB will hammer Ternate's airfield (planning to keep it shut down) and port (hoping to hit any damaged CVEs that sought refuge there). I also hope the 4EB will "use up" the Japanese CAP.

5. I've loaded the forward bases - and there are a bunch of them (Boela, Ambon, Namlea, Oti, Lobalato, Morotai, one near Morotai with a name that escapes me, and Sorong all are level three to seven, and Talaud Island, a level two) - with top-notch fighters and fresh SBD, TBF, and Beufort squadrons. Since I have three Air HQ in the area, all of the torpedo planes can carry torps.

6. The bulk of the Ternate invasion armada will weigh anchor at Darwin and move north toward Taberfane Island. I'd like to time their arrival at Ternate with the withdrawl of the Japanese carriers.


Love the PT boat moves. They might serve as either a warning or a tripwire. If Miller chooses to stand, and his recent reactions and resupply indicates he might, there could be a sharp fight ahead. As you expect it will be a battle of the KB vs. your long range cap. This one might be for all the marbles. It is going to be 70 , sunny and dry in the Northeast for the first time in half a year, but I will be checking in on this.
good luck!

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1373
RE: Flood the Zone - 4/3/2010 1:09:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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1/30/44 and 1/31/44
 
After issuing orders for aircraft, PT TFs, and two combat TF to "flood the zone" around Ternate, I received this email from Miller:  "What a depressing turn for the IJN........."  Now, every Allied player loves to get a message like that, so I opened the file expecting to find some nice, juicy Allied strikes.  There were a few nice strikes, but nothing to really justify that kind of email, unless there was more to the turn than met the eye.

Ternate:  The PT boats went in first and tangled with a CL/DD TF.  A few PT boats went down without inflicting any damage against the combat ships.  One PT boat put a TT into an xAK.  Next came the Allied CL/DD TFs, which brushed aside the Japanese combat ships (both sides had two ships taking moderate damage).  The Allied combat ships then savaged three Japanese transport TFs, sinking at least two DD and eleven xAK.  Finally, massed waves of Allied bombers came in and did essentially zilch.  The Allies lost 90 aircraft over two days and I don't recall a single hit - miserable performance.  My best guess for the passion Miller expressed in his email is that he really needed those xAKs to deliver supplies to Ternate.

Ternate Invasion force:  The amphibious TFs will rendezvous just north of Boela over the next two days.  D-Day for Ternate is three or four days away.  The invasion will be covered by 10 CVE and 4 CVL.  The KB has withdrawn to Babeldaob and I hope Miller will pull it back into the Philippines (he knows Allied 4EB can hit Babeldaob).

After Ternate:  Once the Allies take Ternate (easier said than done), I may bypass Manado, which Miller just reinforced, and make the big push for Mindanao.

Burma:  The Allise have a three-prong advance:  A relatively modest "check" force to keep the Japanese army at Tavoy in place; another modest force moving toward lightly-held Raeheng; and the bulk of the army moving towards Bangkok.

China:  The Allies should take Hengyang tomorrow and Liuchow in three days.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1374
RE: Flood the Zone - 4/3/2010 5:16:36 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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2/1/44 and 2/2/44

Operation Kennesaw Mountain (invasion of Ternate):  This operation is underway, with D-Day scheduled for tomorrow for the fastest transports (APA and the like).  Here's the skinny:

Opposition:  The garrisons consists of 40k troops - about two divisions that should be short on supply.  The airfield is closed, but plenty of big bases not too far away, Manado being the best.  The KB is parked at Babeldoab and there's a decent chance Miller will commit, if not this two-day turn then thereafter.

Protection:  One four-CVE TF will follow the ships to Ternate; two four-CVE TFs and a four-CVL TF will take position two hexes east of Ternate. A one-BB TF will bombard, a one-BB TF will escort, and three CA/DD TFs will escort.  LRCAP will be provided from Talaud Island, Morotai, Lobolato, Oti, and an island-base whose name escapes me.  The CVE/CVL TF will get some LRCAP from Boela, Sorong, and Namlea.  Protection will probably not be sufficient if Miller "floods the zone" with carrier- and land-based air.

Invasion Force:  The first wave consists of three divisions plus another equivalent.  Might not be enough for the job.  Two-plus divisions are in reserve at Darwin.

Subwars:  PF escorting part of the invasion TF ripped apart two subs north of Boela.  PF are far more potent than even DE, which claimed a sub also.

Burma:  Troops on the march.

China:  A large Chinese army is departing Hengyang for Kukong (and then Kanhsien).  This is the main prong of the Chinese attack.  Another Chinese army attacked across-river at Sian, got a 2:1 and dropped forts from 5 to 3.  Miller has reinforcements coming, so it's a race now to see what happens.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/3/2010 5:20:29 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1375
RE: Flood the Zone - 4/3/2010 9:30:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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2/3/44 and 2/4/44

The first two days of landings at Ternate went well.  Highlights:

1.  No appearance by KB or combat ships, meaning the invasion probably caught Miller by surprise.
2.  No mines.  A CD unit is present but didn't do any damage to speak of.
3.  1250 AV came ashore in great shape and found the garrisons consists of a regular division, a guards division, and a mixed brigade - about 790 AV.  The Japanese had better be low on supply or this will be a long, tough siege.
4.  Landings appear to have caught KB on wrong foot - sighted well northwest of Babeldaob as though headed for Philippines.  Even if Miller recalls the carriers, I don't think they would arrive on the scene quickly enough to mess with the Allies tomorrow, except at long range.
5.  Two big TFs with 9th Oz Division and two brigades will arrive tomorrow.  If these landings go well, the Allies should end tomorrow with nearly 2,000 AV ashore.  Since gracious plenty supplies have landed, the Allies should be in great shape.  Tomorrow is the key day.
6.  Allied LBA savaged the airfield at Manado.  I hope it's shut down (though recon reports just 49% damage).  LBA will continue to hit the field.
7.  Already two big APA TFs have unloaded all troops and so can retire to Boela.  Getting APAs out of harm's way will be a tremendous relief.  I cannot spare these ships.
8.  Three four-CVE TFs and one four CVL-TF will unite and remain two hexes SE of Ternate, protected by a one-BB TF and a CA/DD TF.

Things look good at the moment.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1376
RE: Flood the Zone - 4/4/2010 1:42:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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2/5/43 and 2/6/43
 
Ternate:  Miller didn't commit the KB, combat ships, or LBA, so the landings at Ternate have gone as smooth as possible.  The entire operations must've caught him by surprise and on the wrong foot.  Nearly the entire Allied army and plenty of supplies are ashore (see summary below), so the Allies are going to "get while the getting is good."  I'm pulling everything out tomorrow in anticipation that a thoroughly aroused Japanese military will strike.  Here's what the contest at Ternate looks like:

Ground combat at Ternate (78,102) 
Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 18616 troops, 236 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 769 
Defending force 51564 troops, 1034 guns, 1011 vehicles, Assault Value = 2029

Japanese ground losses:
     22 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled 

Assaulting units:
   24th Ind.Mixed Brigade
   52nd Division
   2nd Guards Division
   3rd IJN Special Cst Gun Bn /74
   63rd Field AA Battalion
   68th JAAF AF Bn
   65th Field AA Battalion
   13th Field AF Construction Battalion
   62nd JNAF AF Unit /111
   66th Field AA Battalion
   2nd Base Force
   30th JNAF AF Unit
   66th JNAF AF Unit /108
   64th Field AA Battalion
   59th JNAF AF Unit /114

Defending units:
   18th Australian Brigade
   104th Combat Engineer Regiment
   29th British Brigade
   II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
   33rd Infantry Division
   9th Australian Division
   1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
   25th Australian Brigade
   2nd USMC Engineer Regiment
   185th Infantry Rgt /178
   6th British Bde /169
   2/13th Field Regiment
   108th Tank Attack Regiment
   2/16th Field Regiment
   XI US Corps
   134th Field Artillery Battalion
   II Australian Corps /1

Burma:  A Japanese counterattack at Raeheng failed, probably due to lack of preparation.  The Allies have reinforcements on the way and should take this base within a week.  A small Allied army will then move forward from Raeheng, hopefully to threaten Bangkok from the north while the main force moves in from the west.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1377
RE: Flood the Zone - 4/5/2010 1:39:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Didn't get a chance to play much over the weekend, so I'm just now evaluating the Allied position in the DEI and issuing orders for the next few turns:

1.  The Allied force at Ternate (2050 AV) will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.  I expect this to be a tough battle, but the Allies may be able to to take the base within a reasonable time without reinforcing (if, as I believe, the Japanese are low on supply).
2.  In anticipation of a large, coordinate Japanese counterattack, all Allied transports, carriers, and combat ships will leave and move to Boela or points south.
3.  Allied LBA will continue to divide attention between Manado and Ternate.  Both are shut down, but I won't be surprised if Miller does his best to get Manado reopened.
4.  Allied engineers will land at several of the small (but potentially large) dot hexes NW of Namlea and just west of Morotai (near Manado) to support future operations.
5.  All signs continue to point to a serious cruiser shortage for the IJN.
6.  Once Ternate falls, I don't think the Allies will move immediately on Manado.  Instead, I'm thinking of a feint toward Mindanao with a major landing at a small Celebes base near Kendari. 

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1378
RE: Flood the Zone - 4/5/2010 5:59:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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2/7/44 and 2/8/44
 
Ternate:  Very good signs here.  Back-to-back 1:1 deliberate attacks drop forts from 3 to 2 and inflict more casualties on the IJA than on the Allies.  I'm nearly positive the Allies can take the base without reinforcing.  I have one reinforcing unit on the way from Darwin.  I'll stop it at Boela until I see whether it's needed.  All other Ternate-prepped troops will begin prepping for another target.  That means I need to decide what's next - Mindanoa or a surprise attack on the peninsula above Kendari.

SWPac:  The Allies are prepping modest armies to invade Port Moresby (lightly garrisoned; should be easy) and Koepang (modestly garrisoned; don't know if the IJA is short of supplies or not).  Both of these invasions could take place before the next major Allied assault.

Burma:  Three-prong advance continues: toward Raeheng, Bangkok, and Tavoy.  The first two compliment each other as Raeheng presents a route that threatens Bangkok's rear from the north.

China:  The big Chinese army (5100 AV) should arrive at Kukong in three or four days.  The Chinese army at Sian was getting the best of the Japanese army, but took such high losses that I'm going to cancel that offensive.  The Chinese army moving on Nanning should arrive there in the next two or three days.

Grand Tactics:  Miller has really presented a well-coordinated, well-though-out, tenacious defense in the DEI.  My hat's off to him.  In part, this is because he's very gifted at tactical defense.  In part it's because he has experience defending in this area because our WitP game followed a very similar path.  But he's also been "just ahead of me" throughout the campaign, managing to garrison bases (like Morotai and Dadjangas) just before I was able to move on them.  The Allies are making steady progress and have seriously attritioned the Japanese.  I think the war is going pretty well.

From my perspective, what could Miller do to most seriously impede the Allies at this point?  Bearing in mind that there are certain factors in our game that won't be present in others (the massive Allied transport and carrier losses, and the massive IJN battleship and cruiser losses, for instance), here are my thoughts:

1)  The Allies are so short on troop transports that a major loss now would seriously impede my progress.  To Miller it must seem that the Allies have an inexaustible supply, but they don't.  APAs are worth their weight in gold - knock out 10 to 15 and it would dramatically reduce Allied lift capacity and increase the time (and exposure) of Allied ships at beachheads.  If Miller were omnipotent (he's not, but he's quite capable) he'd know this and would concentrate on attritioning these ships whenever possible.
2)  Prep-time seriously impedes Allied progress more significantly than Japanese troop concentration.  Allied LBA and troop numbers allows me to reduce and take any base within reasonable range.  But it takes time to prep an army, transport it to an objective, take the objective, prep for a new base, and arrange transport either to a rear staging area or from that forward base.  Therefore, it doesn't make sense for Miller to over-stack any particular base.  He just needs a large enough garrison to force the Allies to commit in a big way.  For most bases a garrison of about 30k to 40k troops (say a division plus a little more) should be sufficient.  When a defense of this sort is presented in depth, the Allied advance will be slow and methodical, giving the Japanese time to prepare defenses further back.  Miller has done an outstanding job in this regard.
3)  Miller still has a decisive edge in carrier numbers.  The "fleet in being" concept is very, very effective and Miller has used this to maximum effect.  However, he can't be everywhere all the time and just missed a good chance to hit the relatively exposed Allied invasion ships at Ternate.
4)  As noted previously, a lengthy, hard-fought campaign of attrition should eventually "break the backs" of the Japanese.  Since we're playing AE and since this is Scenario Two, I'm not sure how much more damage Miller can absorb before his back is broken.  I think, but I'm not positive, that I'm pretty close with respect to Japanese combat ships.  But Japanese carriers and LBA remain very potent.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1379
RE: Flood the Zone - 4/5/2010 7:26:15 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
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Don't forget in your calculations on Thailand, Miller now has access to the RTA. They are poor troops with crappy generals, but should be prepped for defensive positions, and trained into the 50s, so they are worth something. They are also fresh. The RTA is 6 divisions, about 1500 AV total.

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Post #: 1380
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