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RE: Buyer's Remorse

 
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RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/25/2010 2:24:38 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/21/44 and 4/22/44
 
KB:  Shows up off the NE coast of Mindanao once again, which is a blessing for which I give constant thanks.  Stay up there in plain sight while the Allies operate just off the tip of Java and all will be well.

Manado:  This base finally falls on April 21.  The Allies now have a massive airbase overlooking the northern entrance to the Makassar Straits and to utilize in any upcoming moves on Mindanao or northeastern Borneo.  The troops here will soon begin prepping for new targets - probably Tarakan and vicinity.

Southern Celebes:  Landings go well with nothing untoward happening.  Plenty of Japanese strike aircraft sortie and score some hits against a few DD (the same ones that hit Soerabaja a week ago), but the Japanese lose alot of aircraft.  The Allied carriers juked towards Soerabaja, but didn't find any victims.  In the meantime, Franklin, Constellation, and Yorktown arrived and steamed to a point near Timor.  They'll hook up with the main carrier force tomorrow.

Bay of Bengal:  I withdrew the Port Blair invasion fleet after losing BB Queen Elizabeth.  A bunch of Judy and Jills targeted some AKL at Rangoon, but the Japanese lost more aircraft than it was worth for the hits scored on this little merchant ships.

China:  A Chinese unit marched cross country and cut the road to Nanning, isolating the Japanese garrison.  Not sure it will help me take the city, but we'll see.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1531
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/25/2010 3:50:32 AM   
racndoc


Posts: 2519
Joined: 10/29/2004
From: Newport Coast, California
Status: offline 		I think that u underrate the B-25s. Ive found that 4E bomber groups reach 60-70% damaged after 6-8 days of continuous ops vs B-25s conducting continuous ops for weeks at a time with 70% plus operational.

In addition, the B-25D1 in particular has a gun rating of 30 and is perfect for 100' strafing missions.

Referring to a previous post, Jap naval AA is vastly overrated come 1943. Im finding that my SBDs are suffering 25% to 30% losses to IJN ship AA in 1943.
A major attack on an IJN BB group with approximately 130 SBD-3s resulted in 38 SBDs lost to naval AA and an additional 10 SBDs lost to "ops".

In RL Midway on June 4th 1942.....the penultimate day at Midway where all 4 IJN CVs were mortally wounded......exactly 1 USN SBD was lost to naval AA.

According to Shattered Sword.....IJN gun directors were antiquated and were simply incapable of tracking aerial targets in 3D...ie they could obtain firing solutions on 2D torpedo bombers but not 3D divebombers.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1532
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/25/2010 8:57:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks for the comments, AdmSpruance.  It goes to show that there is variation among the games.  I'm not having any trouble keeping Allied 4EB air-worthy - in part because they are flying from big bases (levels six to nine), which I assume reduces damage, and in part because I have them concentrated together in the DEI so that I can easily rotate squadrons between duty and rest and still put up 200 every turn.

But my 2EB don't do a thing, including the best B-25 models at 100' altitude.  This, in turn, may be due to lack of opportunity.  Miller isn't in the habit of sending his ships within range of LBA and most of my forward bases are occupied by fighters and 4EB.

Game update:

1.  The KB has juked west to a point near Jolo.  Miller could chance a dash down the Makassar Strait to try to hit my carriers, he might send his carriers around Borneo, or he might keep them where they are to move either way.

2.  In either event, I want to clear out my ships for a few turns to see what happens.  Carriers, combat ships and transports will rendezvous near Lautem.

3.  The Allies landed two divisions and a regiment - plus some supporting units - at Kolako.  These will advance on Kendari.  Another division, tank regiment, and other troops had arrived at Kolako, but I need to temporarily pull them back safety.

4.  If the KB goes around Borneo to protect the Java Sea, the Mindanao-prepped troops are ready to board transports at Boela.  As between Mindanao and the Soerabaja/Bandjermasin/Makassar triangle, the Allies have the "inside line" unless Miller chances a transit of the Makassar Straits.

(in reply to racndoc)
Post #: 1533
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/25/2010 10:56:08 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		On from my post 

Are your CV achieving anything in the DEI??

Can you send them either East or West and find some softer targets to hit on, pick up some experience by smashing some minor bases.

If they are too fragile to take on KB, go somewhere they aint.


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1534
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 1:29:07 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The arrival of the three new carriers gives the Allies carrier parity.  The Allies are using the carriers to good effect in the DEI - to support (and therefore allow) invasions despite the threat of Japanese air power.  Since, in AE, Japanese air power is greater than the real war and WitP by a factor of about 1000, this is crucial.  I could not advance in the DEI without my carriers and, at the moment, advancing in the DEI is the most profitable use I can make of time and assets.



(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1535
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 3:21:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/23/44 and 4/24/44
 
KB:  Spoiling for a fight, Miller sent the KB into the Makassar Straits to a point between Makassar and Balikpan.  Why do I think he was spoiling?  This was his email comment before he ran the turn:  "I think there might be plenty of action this turn, so I will take my time with it and get it to you tomorrow..."

Allied Reaction:  I had anticipated this move, as noted in a post above.  Since I wasn't ready for a final showdown, I ordered my ships east.  Except for one transport TF that disoboyed orders or that didn't receive orders (that ALWAYS happens), all my ships ended up safely around Timor. So Miller got a bad dose of attackus non completus. 

What's Next:  I *think* the KB will remain in that vicinity to permit Miller to get ships into and out of Balikpan and Soerabaja to handle cargo and fuel.  It also means I can't land additional forces at Kolako until the KB clears the area.  I have two choices: 

(1)  Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead:  CVs Franklin, Constellation, and Yorktown just rendezvoued with the main force consisting of Hornet, Intrepid, Bunker Hill, and Victorious.  There are also six or eight CVL and at least 16 CVE.  That's a mighty force that would ordinarily take on and whip the KB in 1944...but this is AE in which Japanese strike aircraft are uber and Allied strike aircraft are pathetic.  So I need to weigh this option carefully, taking into consideration Japanese and Allied LBA capabilities given the abundance of bases in the vicinity and the ability of Allied 4EB to close bases (Kendari and Makassar, for instance, are shut down).  I would probably position the Allied carriers in the vicinity of Namlea with home port set as Boela or Ternate.  This would keep Celebes between the two forces - assuming the KB remains where its at - and give damaged ships a nearby refuge.

(2)  Proceed - or feint - with the Mindanao invasion:  Transports at Boela (Ceram) would load and would head north in the company of the carriers.  The KB would likely head north, too, allowing the Allies to land the remaining troops at Kendari and to mount the invasions of Mataram, Raba, and Waingapou (the troops and ships are waiting at Koepang for the all-clear).

Mindanao Note:  Since the fall of Manado to the Allies, I feel comfortable with invading Dadjangas, Mindanao as long as the KB isn't present.  The Allies have enough big airbases (Manado, Talaud Island and Morotai) and medium sized bases (islands between Manado and Talaud) to provide a heck of alot of LRCAP.  This invasion is likely as soon as the KB isn't an immediate threat, but it can also serve as a useful target of feints.  I want Dadjangas and Cotabato for the airfields that would serve as a buffer from the big Japanese bases on Mindanao.  I don't expect to take the entire island.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/26/2010 3:22:48 PM >

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Post #: 1536
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 3:28:55 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Dan--I cannot remember but you are playing Scen 2--right? Do you think that is part of the issue here with Japanese aircraft?

I based my Mod off of Scen One and even drew back the amount of graduating Japanese pilots from 1943 onwards to better reflect the war. Wonder if that much larger pool is an issue? Course the training program by the player changes things a bunch as well.

You've put some of the Japanese CV/CVL out-of-commission over the last few months haven't you? Seem to remember your SS hitting several Japanese Cvs recently. Might that really help with a toe-to-toe brawl?


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1537
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 3:46:23 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Miller is clearly going to challenge what ever you do in the Makassar Straits so o might as well have the showdown there. MAy as well wait for you remaining carriers to join you. Any temptation of split you carries and trap him in the straits? Seems like a lot of coordination and mighty risky but the war would be decided this month no?


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Post #: 1538
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 5:18:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John D.:  Yes, a victory by the Allies in a major carrier battle would decide the war.  Miller put it this way in an email yesterday:  "I think we both know the Jap player gets an a-historical hand to keep the game interesting later in the war, however the existence of the KB is the only thing that is stopping you from running amok."  The only trouble is that there's a good chance the Japanese would win a major carrier battle - I'd put the odds at 70% - which would really hurt the Allies, because carrier parity is the only reason the Allies are able to advance right now.  But all Allied carriers have arrived in theater, so I can engage if I decide I like the odds.

One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present.  This is a huge problem because Allied LBA typically has much shorter legs than does Japanese LBA.  That means when reaction takes place it is much easier for the Japanese to keep LRCAP while the Allied carriers may blithely sail out of range. (This has happened to me repeatedly and creates intense feelings of frustration and anger). My experience in AE is that reaction kills the Allies in a fight in which both sides are using LBA, as will be the case in the DEI.

John 3:  Yes, Allied subs have picked off a CV since our last big carrier engagement, and damaged a CVL and a CVE (both of which may be available again).  Also, two IJN CVE and a CVL were heavily damaged in action around the Celebes and are definately out of action right now.  So the KB isn't quite what it was months ago.

We are indeed playing Scenario Two.  The air war is whacked out, but there are so many variables that enter the equation that I'm not sure how to allocate the whackiness between AE, Scenario Two, random luck, lack of pilot training knowledge on my part, lack of skill on my part in knowing how to use carriers in battle, skill on the part of my opponent in using carriers in battle, or little gremlins who have put a curse on me because once while backpacking the Appalachian Trail I unknowingly relieved myself on their sacred fern garden.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/26/2010 5:22:07 PM >

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Post #: 1539
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 6:03:59 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John D.:  Yes, a victory by the Allies in a major carrier battle would decide the war.  Miller put it this way in an email yesterday:  "I think we both know the Jap player gets an a-historical hand to keep the game interesting later in the war, however the existence of the KB is the only thing that is stopping you from running amok."  The only trouble is that there's a good chance the Japanese would win a major carrier battle - I'd put the odds at 70% - which would really hurt the Allies, because carrier parity is the only reason the Allies are able to advance right now.  But all Allied carriers have arrived in theater, so I can engage if I decide I like the odds.

One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present.  This is a huge problem because Allied LBA typically has much shorter legs than does Japanese LBA.  That means when reaction takes place it is much easier for the Japanese to keep LRCAP while the Allied carriers may blithely sail out of range. (This has happened to me repeatedly and creates intense feelings of frustration and anger). My experience in AE is that reaction kills the Allies in a fight in which both sides are using LBA, as will be the case in the DEI.

John 3:  Yes, Allied subs have picked off a CV since our last big carrier engagement, and damaged a CVL and a CVE (both of which may be available again).  Also, two IJN CVE and a CVL were heavily damaged in action around the Celebes and are definately out of action right now.  So the KB isn't quite what it was months ago.

We are indeed playing Scenario Two.  The air war is whacked out, but there are so many variables that enter the equation that I'm not sure how to allocate the whackiness between AE, Scenario Two, random luck, lack of pilot training knowledge on my part, lack of skill on my part in knowing how to use carriers in battle, skill on the part of my opponent in using carriers in battle, or little gremlins who have put a curse on me because once while backpacking the Appalachian Trail I unknowingly relieved myself on their sacred fern garden.

Canoerebel,

Unless you've found a way to have 600-700 LBA Kamikazes on the Allied side in your next carrier battle, I'd put the likelihood of you coming up with the dirty end of the stick in your next CV/CV clash at 100%-if it's in range of one of those Kamikaze nests. More carriers for you will help (more CAP), but they could just be more expensive targets.

Your strategic picture is getting increasingly complicated re: naval expansion as the Kamikaze threat grows. That's why I'm a big fan of going where the Kamikazes aren't-open sea. That could be the IO (reinforcing Burma / Thailand by looping around-WAY around Java and Sumatra). LBA LRCAP is nice when you can get it, but you very clearly articulate some of the headaches of relying on this sort of support. With Kamikazes, he doesn't really have to worry so much about LRCAP, since Kamikazes are exclusively an offensive weapon.

To use a (bad) boxing analogy: You've rained body blows on your opponent. He's responded to this by dropping his guard to defend himself against these body blows. When your opponent drops his guard to protect his tenderized midsection-left cross to the temple.

Miller has shown his hand-I mostly believe him when he says that his CV force is really keeping him in the game. He's not likely to afford you opportunity to go one on one with his CVs versus yours WITHOUT his Kamikaze crutch.

To summarize:

1. CV versus CV exchange in the open ocean-accept if opportunity presents parity.
2. CV versus CV fight in proximity to his LBA (read: almost anywhere in the DEI)-avoid.

_____________________________


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Post #: 1540
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 6:24:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Chickenboy, well said.  In fact, were we admirals meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the President, I think a light simultaneously went on in the heads of FDR and Admiral King:  "Hey, we need to replace stodgy old Canoerbel with this bright and bold Chickenboy.  Old Canoe has his uses, but he's worn out by all the casualties he's taken and the thousands of letters and telegram's he's had to send to survivors back home."

Okay, I'll give the map a new look to see if I, by shaking my stubbornly held DEI-centric views, can see any opportunity to suddenly shift a vast amount of Allied power to Burma/Thailand or possible CenPac (I prefer Burma/Thailand, but I'll at least look elsewhere).

If I think it's worth doing, I'll probably take the fleet carriers and leave the CVE behind to deal with the DEI.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1541
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 6:29:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Two important P.S.

1)  I think the Allies could accomplish as much in the DEI using just the CVEs as the entire carrier fleet if Miller had to use his carriers elsewhere.

2)  But at the moment all available Allied troops are at forward bases - mainly Kendari, Boela, Ternate, Morotai and Manado.  (I had just stripped Darwin to feed the Kendari offensive).  So a move on Burma/Thailand is complicated/slowed by the need to retrieve troops and/or await the two US Infantry divisions currently enroute from West Coast.  The most easily retrievable contingent is the group at Ternate prepped for Davao.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1542
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 9:01:05 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Two important P.S.

1)  I think the Allies could accomplish as much in the DEI using just the CVEs as the entire carrier fleet if Miller had to use his carriers elsewhere.

I agree. Your CVEs can cover landings. Caveat: They're Kamikaze bait. You can probably find other (better?) blue seas applications for your fleet CVs. They're a bit exposed in such constricted waters around the Celebes anyways, particularly if you're concerned about their 'react' settings.

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Post #: 1543
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 9:59:19 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		I know you are constrained by your prior ship losses but this is telling me that the Allies (under normal circumstances) must be attacking on two fronts. The Central Pacific needs to be attacked as it is the best place to defeat the Japanese fleet. It looks as though forcing a major battle in the CenPac area gives the Allies the best change to exchange ships on a equal footing. The other benefit is the lack of decent ports for damaged ships to flee to.

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Post #: 1544
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 10:23:44 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		I'm wondering about CentPac vs. SE Asian fronts too. In one, you have a firm and irreversible lodgement. On the other, you will be away from LBA subject to naval air and IJAAF Marianas-based interdiction until you can overstack the one target island a/f in the chain that you choose to attack. Capturing, for example, Guam could be a very painful exercise. I think the opportunity cost to drive East and South from SE Asia is considerably lower.

However, once captured, the Marianas provide an immediate strategic bombing dividend. Canoerebel indicated that he's getting some B-29s now too. Miller would have to rebase some of his LBA fighter forces back on the home islands to defend himself. This could weaken him in the DEI and elsewhere.

Well, Canoerebel, you're in the Admiral (hot) seat. Your undeservedly kind comments earlier don't take into account how easy it is to be an armchair general like me. Hard decisions, dude, but I'll enjoy the show either way...

ETA: crsutton: I think Canoerebel *has* two legitimate fronts right now: Southern DEI and SE Asia. I think you're asking for a THIRD offensive front to be opened, aren't you?

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 4/26/2010 10:35:07 PM >

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Post #: 1545
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 10:33:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Pardon me for be a contrarian, but I don't think you have to fight on two sea fronts.  I didn't in my two WitP games and I haven't in this one (except the brief period when I invaded the Kuriles) and it's gone fairly well.  I am very glad to be fighting in the DEI, close to the Japanese juglar.

I also don't think B-29 will be the weapon they were in WitP for several reasons.  But even in WitP it was tough to use them at any distance - such as the Saipan group.  I think AE will prove even more difficult from a distance.  In my opinion, if I'm going to effectively use B-29s against the Home Islands, I have to do so from Luzon, Formosa, Okinawa, China, Korea, Russia, or Sikhalin Island (and Luzon may even be a bit too far).

Meanwhile, I want to see what's up this next turn (which I'll receive later tonight or tomorrow a.m.).  Allied orders issued:

1) Carriers move NE a few hexes to take station between Lautem and Babar Island.
2) Transports at Boela to load four regiments prepped for Dadjangas.
3)  Additional transports heading to Morotai to load tanks and combat engineers for Dadjangas.
4)  Transports at Darwin loading with garrison and engineer troops for Gorontalo (on Celebes).  If the coast is clear to run in to Gorontalo, these transports will also pick up 7th Marines, which are prepped for Dadjangas.
5)  These moves will put the Allies in position to move on either Dadjangas or the Kendari/Mataram regions.  The Allies can select whichever route is free from the KB threat.  Also, the Allies are repositioning B-24 squadrons to Ternate and Morotai.  These will be used to (hopefully) badly damage or close the big IJA airbases at Butuan and Cotabato prior to the Dadjangas invasion.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/26/2010 10:35:51 PM >

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Post #: 1546
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 11:10:09 PM   
eloso


Posts: 335
Joined: 5/28/2006
From: The Greater Chicagoland Area, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present. 



I never tried the "escort" trick. The one that I always used was setting them to follow a surface TF (usually a CL and a few DDs) with a reaction of 0. Have you tried this one?

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Post #: 1547
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/26/2010 11:12:01 PM   
Misconduct


Posts: 1864
Joined: 2/18/2009
From: Cape Canaveral, Florida
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Pardon me for be a contrarian, but I don't think you have to fight on two sea fronts.  I didn't in my two WitP games and I haven't in this one (except the brief period when I invaded the Kuriles) and it's gone fairly well.  I am very glad to be fighting in the DEI, close to the Japanese juglar.

I also don't think B-29 will be the weapon they were in WitP for several reasons.  But even in WitP it was tough to use them at any distance - such as the Saipan group.  I think AE will prove even more difficult from a distance.  In my opinion, if I'm going to effectively use B-29s against the Home Islands, I have to do so from Luzon, Formosa, Okinawa, China, Korea, Russia, or Sikhalin Island (and Luzon may even be a bit too far).

Meanwhile, I want to see what's up this next turn (which I'll receive later tonight or tomorrow a.m.).  Allied orders issued:

1) Carriers move NE a few hexes to take station between Lautem and Babar Island.
2) Transports at Boela to load four regiments prepped for Dadjangas.
3)  Additional transports heading to Morotai to load tanks and combat engineers for Dadjangas.
4)  Transports at Darwin loading with garrison and engineer troops for Gorontalo (on Celebes).  If the coast is clear to run in to Gorontalo, these transports will also pick up 7th Marines, which are prepped for Dadjangas.
5)  These moves will put the Allies in position to move on either Dadjangas or the Kendari/Mataram regions.  The Allies can select whichever route is free from the KB threat.  Also, the Allies are repositioning B-24 squadrons to Ternate and Morotai.  These will be used to (hopefully) badly damage or close the big IJA airbases at Butuan and Cotabato prior to the Dadjangas invasion.


I agree Canoe, I have been quite silent in your AAR but I must agree with your steps towards strategy, I don't believe the B-29 will be the devistating weapon it was in WITP for a few more reasons then just the distance, the distance alone will cause OP loses and higher fatigue in the pilots. Which in the long term means less pilots in the air and more damaged/destroyed aircraft. Secondly I really like seeing you are taking a look at Dadiangas, this can open a realm of possibilities for invasion. I think shutting down philippines opens a road to the South East Asia and puts more constraint on the japanese then moving anywhere else right now.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1548
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/27/2010 12:09:33 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: OSO
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present. 

I never tried the "escort" trick. The one that I always used was setting them to follow a surface TF (usually a CL and a few DDs) with a reaction of 0. Have you tried this one?


OSO, that was standard strategy in UV, WitP, and AE. It doesn't work in any of them.

P.S. To my knowledge, the react feature is the longest-lived reviled feature of the trilogy. I don't understand why the feature isn't disabled or fixed so that it works like players would like it to work.

(in reply to eloso)
Post #: 1549
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/27/2010 1:10:56 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Canoerebel, I'm at April 1942 in one of my PBEMs and I haven't seen this problem yet.



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Post #: 1550
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/27/2010 1:16:41 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Just wait - your day is coming. 

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Post #: 1551
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/27/2010 2:06:14 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		I don't think you have time to do much in the Central Pacific. You can't get to the Mariana's without going through the Carolina's and that takes too much time and frankly with Truk intact Miller has all the advantages.

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1552
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/27/2010 5:33:53 AM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


ETA: crsutton: I think Canoerebel *has* two legitimate fronts right now: Southern DEI and SE Asia. I think you're asking for a THIRD offensive front to be opened, aren't you?


Well, no. I was not really referring to Canoerebel because he has critical shortages of invasion capable shipping, but rather as an overall Allied stratgy. Yes, you are right in that it is three fronts, but I am considering SE Asia as a given as there is not much else for the Indian army to do but to slug away overland.

I just think that, as Canoerebel is discovering, the DEI is fraught with carrier traps due to excessive strength of Japanese air and carriers this late in the game. The more I see the less happy I am with the overall balance of the air war. Something is out of whack when the Japanese can just create so many aircraft and pilots. And, it is beginning to become apparent that there might be imbalances in the carriers wars as well that give Japanese naval air an advantage when it really should be with the Allied fleet at this stage.

The Allied player may actually be better off going through CenPac and use the DEI as a secondary thrust.

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(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1553
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/27/2010 3:21:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/25/44 to 4/28/44
 
Mexican Standoff:  The KB is steaming in circles in the sea between Tawi Tawi and Puerto Princessa, daring me to move on either Mindanao or Kendari.  The Allied carriers, in turn, are in the Ceram vicinity, waiting to see if the KB moves.  Japanese combat ships picked off several subs, and a sub picked off a IJN destroyer.  Allied transports at Morotai have finished loading the Dadjangas-prepped troops and are ready to move if the KB vacates the vicinity.  Transports loaded with Kendari reinforcments remain near Ceram waiting for an all-clear in that area.  And, at Koepang, transports are loading troops bound for Waingapu and Mataram (islands between Timor and Java).

Borneo:  It appears that many of the Borneo bases are lightly garrisoned, so I believe the Allies can make substantial progress toward the goal of reaching the South China Sea by moving along either northern or southern coasts.  Troops are prepping for both - including the troops at Manado, which just eradicated the final Japanese troops at that base.  The Allies need a bit of time to get new airbases operational - especially at Gorontalo and Kolako at opposite ends of Celebes.  These will offer protection for advances along either axis.

Burma:  The Allies will try a probing attack at Tavoy tomorrow.  With 2000 AV to 450 AV, you'd think progress might be made, but I'm not optimistic.

China:  The Allies will also try one final probing attack at Nanning, which has been isolated for awhile now.  If no progress is made the Chinese will resort to defensive and guerilla operations.

What about Chickenboy's Idea?:  The Allies have three divisions (prepping for Balikpan and - believe it or not - Manila) on the way from the West Coast.  The transports are nearing Pago Pago.  If, by the time they arrive at Darwin, there is still a stalemate in the DEI, I think I'll transfer those divisions to SEAC to assist in the Thailand/Vietnam offensive.  On the other hand, if the Allies have punched through and made progress in the DEI, then these troops will remain there. 

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1554
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/28/2010 12:48:21 AM   
eloso


Posts: 335
Joined: 5/28/2006
From: The Greater Chicagoland Area, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: OSO
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present. 

I never tried the "escort" trick. The one that I always used was setting them to follow a surface TF (usually a CL and a few DDs) with a reaction of 0. Have you tried this one?


OSO, that was standard strategy in UV, WitP, and AE. It doesn't work in any of them.

P.S. To my knowledge, the react feature is the longest-lived reviled feature of the trilogy. I don't understand why the feature isn't disabled or fixed so that it works like players would like it to work.


That's news to me since I never saw an Air Combat TF react in my CHS game against FeurerKrieg while set to follow a Surface Combat task force. It didn't matter who was in command either. They had plenty of opportunities to do so. On the other hand, if they were set to follow a Transport TF or any other sort of TF, they would react.

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Post #: 1555
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/28/2010 5:13:42 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		It's happened to me twice in this game in very big and negatives ways - first in the Battle of Luganville (June '42) in which my carriers were set to follow a combat TF, but reacted away from it and out from under LRCAP. Then it happened in the First Battle of Morotai (November '43) with identical results.

It happened to me many times in both WitP and UV. The most egregious example I had was a big carrier TF following a combat TF to get "out of harm's way." The carriers were way down around Koumac following a strong BB TF when they reacted nearly all the way to Luganville, which was enemy owned, and got eaten alive by LBA and carrier-based air.

But answer me this: Why can't we have a game where if you order carriers not to react they don't?

(in reply to eloso)
Post #: 1556
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/28/2010 3:16:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/1/44 and 5/2/44
 
An ugly turn for the Allies as the Japanese administer a few sharp stings and the weird - an increasingly irritating - standoff continues in the DEI.

Moving into a Vaccuum (Not):  When Allied forces are on the move and a big showdown is imminent it often creates a void elsewhere so that it's relatively safe to move into the vaccuum.  I do it often and with good success, but this time I got nailed.  With the KB in the Philippines and the Allies in force from Morotai to near Kendari, I embarked on a low-risk "vaccuum-area" invasion of Waingapu, and island between Java and Timor.  All I can say is that this time Miller was waiting - Frances and Jill bombers tore into the amphibious TF over two days sinking six LCI, 1 AP, 1 AKA, 1 APA, 1 LSV and a DE.  Ouch!  I'll have to reevaluate my instincts for "vaccuum-area" movement.  The Marine regiment did get ashore at Waingapu in decent shape and will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.

Mexican Carrier Standoff:  The KB continues to steam in circles just north of Zamboanga (sinking every sub in sight, I might add).  The Allied carrier and Kendari-reinforcement transports remain just south of Ceram and the Dadjangas invasion transports remain huddled together at Morotai.  If I move either way and Miller guesses right, a massive carrier battle ensues.  I am a bit frustrated over the stalement, but the Allies may be willing to accept battle soon.  Forward airbases continue to come on line and/or build up so that the Allies have much more LBA potential in the Kendari area now.  Kolako is a level two, Boeton Island is a two, and Taliaboe is a one.  Watampon will reach level one in about a week.  At the moment I am trying to decide whether to send the Kendari-prepped troops directly to Kendari, as opposed to landing at friendly Kolako, as I can reach the beach in one turn and therefore likely get ashore before the KB could reach this area even if Miller guessed right.  But I'm also considering sending the Allied carriers sprinting over to Soerabaja to clobber some shipping there.  Don't know yet what I'm going to do.

China:  The Japanese blasted away the Allied garrison at Liuchow.  That leaves a gap in the Allied MLR, with Kweilin and Nanning on either side.  Don't know what I'm going to do next, but I see some benefit to the Japanese having some success in the interior of China, for when the Western Allies are finally ready to invade coastal China it will be better if Miller has been focusing inland rather than on his port cities.

Back to the drawing board as I try to figure out some way to break the standoff in a manner that will help the Allies.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1557
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/28/2010 5:08:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies will proceed with landings at Kendari covered by the carriers.  I'm doing so for these reasons:

1)  No additional fleet carriers (CV or CVL) are set to arrive in the foreseeable future, so the force is at its max.
2)  If Miller guesses right and sends his carriers south towards the region, he might not reach the area until the second day (meaning the Allies could evaluate after the first day of battle).
3)  Or, if his carriers do arrive close enough to launch, it will be at long distance with the Celebes in between (hopefully reducing the possibility of the dreaded carrier reaction feature that plagues me).
4)  The Allies have a network of airbases to assist.
5)  The Allies have shut down Miller's two best fields (Kendari and Makassar).  4EB will hit one of his next closest (Balikpan) tomorrow.
6)  I need to get the troops ashore so that the Allies can regroup for future operations.
7)  No matter what happens with carriers, the transports should have at least one day, perhaps even two, to unload the bulk of the troops.

So there may be a big carrier battle next turn, or there may not be.  I should find out late this afternoon.

All carrier TFs are set to follow a combat TF.  CAP will be set, probably 50% for Hellcats and 60% for other fighters.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1558
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/28/2010 6:31:35 PM   
anarchyintheuk

 

Posts: 3921
Joined: 5/5/2004
From: Dallas
Status: offline 		If they don't hit you on Day 1, your cap is going to be fatigued for Day 2. Tough call, do you have any % set on rest?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1559
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/28/2010 6:41:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Miller has gotten home early.  He'll be running the turn shortly, so I'm going to find out soon if battle takes place.  I just have a feeling that it well, though I think I'd prefer if it didn't.  A few more notes:

1.  Most of the Hellcats are set at 60% CAP.  The other fighters, a collection of Corsairs, FM-1, Seafire, etc. are split between 60% or 70%.
2.  The Allies have 1200 aircraft in this carrier group.  An additional 150 fighters will provide LRCAP from nearby air bases.  Land-based strike aircraft are also scattered about.
3. Before the KB arrived an rudely interrupted Allied unloading operations at Kolako, two plus divisions prepped for Kendari had come ashore.  Those troops are now on the march and will arrive at Kendari in about three days.  The contingent about to land directly at Kendari includes 6th Division, an armored unit, and some change.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1560
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