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RE: Buyer's Remorse

 
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RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/4/2010 8:17:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/25/44 and 5/26/44
 
Major developments give the Allies the information they need to select from one of the two invasion plans.

Allied carriers:  Take position just north of Manado.  There were a few LBA strikes escorted by Franks (which gave much better than they received) and Zeros (which got chewed up).  Here's what the CAP over the Allied carrier fleet looked like:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Manado at 76,98

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M5 Zero x 51
     P1Y1 Frances x 8
     Ki-84a Frank x 20 

Allied aircraft
     Corsair II x 14
     Seafire IIC x 5
     Wildcat V x 20
     P-40N5 Warhawk x 2
     P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 7
     FM-2 Wildcat x 263
     F4U-1A Corsair x 10
     F6F-3 Hellcat x 416

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M5 Zero: 9 destroyed
     P1Y1 Frances: 1 destroyed
     Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

I can't imagine that Miller would be willing to take on the Allied carrier TFs at this point unless he could do so on ground of his choosing (IE, ground saturated by a network of airfields).

KB:  The Japanese carriers showed up on the second of the two-day turn, taking station off the northeast coast of Mindanao.  Pompano put two TT into CV Taiho, an auspicious development.  The presence of the KB way up here gives me the all-clear to proceed with the invasions of Donggala, Banjermasin, Sampit, and possibly Ketapang.

Invasions:  The Allied carriers and the Donggala invasion force are currently at or adjacent to Manado.  These ships will move southwest into the Makassar Strait.  D-Day should take place in two days.  Meanwhile, the invasion TFs slated for Borneo's southern coast will steam west through the Banda Sea.  They will rendezvous with the carriers as soon as they aren't needed for the Donggala invasion any longer.  It's been a long time since I've named any operations, but Donggala will be Operation Yellow Tavern while the Borneo invasions will be Operation Malvern Hill. 

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1591
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/4/2010 8:30:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		P.S.  Lord knows I'm no prophet, but I am nearly sure I know what Miller's going to do this time.  With Allied carriers just NW of Manado, a stack of transports just north of Manado, and the recent Allied LBA strikes vs. Cagayan, he's likely to conclude that the Allies are about to invade Dadgjangas, Cotobato (both on Mindanao) or possibly Tarakan.  So I think he'll keep his carriers close to Mindanao in hopes of orchestrating a massive carrier- and LBA strike vs. my fleet.

If so, that serves my purposes nicely as it permits the Allies to move on Donggala without interference and to get the ships in position to hit southern Borneo soon thereafter.  I don't think there's any way that the KB will be able to go around Borneo to timely interfere with the south coast landings, now.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1592
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/4/2010 9:50:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yowza, for want of the nail the shoe was lost....

The Donggala invasion TF that stopped at Manado temporarily...wasn't set to "Do Not Unload"!

*ack*

Now I have to load them on the fly (without supplies) in order to get things back on track.  The carriers and combat ships will take station in the Malacca Strait northeast of Balikpan.  There they will await arrival of the Donggala invasion fleet.

I have also decided that an invasion of Dadjangas isn't likely to ever occur in this game.  (I've had troops prepped and often loaded for most of the past six months).  The transports are currently north of Manado.  They will follow the carriers south.  I am going to recon Samarinda, the base north of Balikpan.  If it's open, the Dadjangas-prepped troops will land there.  If it looks too tough, I may land the troops at Madjene to help in the campaign that will culminate at Makassar.

Meanwhile, the transports loaded with troops bound for Banjermasin, Sampit and Ketapang will steam to a point just south of Kolako (near Kendari) and await the availability of the Allied carriers.  This is the "real thing" (IE, more important than Donggala), so I am likely to send the carriers south to rendezvous with these ships at or near Banjermasin in two days.  If Banjermasin falls, the Allies have a base from which to hit Batavia, Palembang and even Singapore.

In anticipation of these developments, the B-29 squadrons at Karachi are moving to Colombo.  From there they can transfer to Banjermasin (or Kendari or another good airfield) when the time arrives.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1593
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/4/2010 10:07:00 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Good questons, Bullwinkle.

Honestly, my progress has seemed slow to me thus far in '44, so I can only imagine what it must appear like to those of you reading my AAR.  And then, if I happen to compare this to Q-Ball's game vs. Cuttlefish, I'm really tempted to ratchet things up.


It only seems slow, maybe, because you're attacking real estate nobody has ever heard of before in a WITP/AE game.

I think you'll achieve those objectives too. I would just--one more time along with others in the general forum--caution you on placing too much hope on strat bombing to finish him off. I'm getting one 100-plane B-29 raid from the Marianas every four days. At least 1/3 of every unit is in maintenance 100% of the time.

I'm also channelling my own game into yours. I'm playing 1-day turns, so it's been a LONG game for me, through many patches and rule and code changes (subs, ASW, supply flows, etc.) I would urge you as well, if you don't do this, to look ahead in your arrival queues. In 1944 I think I've gotten more LCUs and more ships (not air units) than in the rest of the game put together. I get whole, new divisions on the WC now--in multiples--instead of Seabee battalions and maybe some regiment-sized units. Just hauling them forward is most of the game now. In the past week I've recieved over 100 ships, at ports 360 degrees around the map. (Waves of ships in late 1944 arrive at East Coast and Balboa instead of ready-to-go in San Fran or Portland.)

Ashore, I'm running into Forts 5-6 instead of 3-4 as I was in the outer defense layers. I don't have base forces enough to give one to everything I'm overrunning (especially in IndoChina; lots of bare base hexes on the road to Saigon.) The AI doesn't exploit these holes like a human would, but it's still disconcerting. Since June 1944 it's almost a different game. I'm running a trucking company more than a war machine. And EVERYTHING is taking longer than I thought it would.

I was cruising until Labor Day 1944, tidying up the Marianas, getting each island just so, moving 4 million tons of supplies forward. And then, poof, it was October, and I wasn't much farther along. Less than a year before the USSR activates and I'm still prepping for the PI. Time is getting away from me.

Anyway, you have a much bettter plan than I do/did. You have time.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1594
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/4/2010 10:20:13 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is the "real thing" (IE, more important than Donggala), so I am likely to send the carriers south to rendezvous with these ships at or near Banjermasin in two days.  If Banjermasin falls, the Allies have a base from which to hit Batavia, Palembang and even Singapore.



And this ability to throw a rock and hit Soerbaja will, I predict, make him commit to stopping your westward roll. He was content to let you go north to the PI (as I said months ago now.) He will not be content to have his oil and resources under your guns. He may not be able to get his carriers there in time (or he may try a Heroes' Run down the Makassar Strait), but everything that can move in Soerbaja, Batavia, and Palembang regions will move to stop you in south Borneo. Else he's cooked.

You should have some Very Long Range recon assets by now (the F-7A Liberators heavies.) If you can, look into his SFTF-possible ports. This may be the time he lashes out.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1595
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/4/2010 10:27:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/27/44 and 5/28/44
 
Our last turn of the day is interesting.

Allied Carriers:  Move south into the Straits of Makassar, where strike aircraft make absolutely mammoth raids against a mammoth number of xAK and AKL and a few TK and DD.  I think Miller lost 30 to 40 ships this turn.  Not sure if he saw an opening to extract supplies and fuel from Balikpan (while, he figured, the Allied carriers were at Mindanao) or dliberately hoped to draw Allied strikes to help his chances in any upcoming carrier battle.  Either way, the Allies expended alot of effort this turn.  When I get the turn file tomorrow morning, I will have to carefully evaluate the ability of the carriers to accept or seek battle.

KB:  I think the KB remained around Mindanao.  For Miller to intervene in the upcoming Banjermasin and Sampit (and possibly Ketapang) invasions, he'll have to send his carriers south through the Makassar Straits right.  The Allies have bases on the Straits, now, he'll figure the water will be choked with subs, and for all he knows the Allied carriers can reverse course and head north.  I can't see him doing that (which means the Allied invasions should face only LBA and that is manageable). 

Kendari:  Allied deliberate attack drops forts to four, comes off at 1:2, and inflicts more damage on the enemy.  That's good progress.  I think Kendari is on schedule to fall in two or three weeks.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1596
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/4/2010 10:32:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Bullwinkle, very interesting comments.

My hope for strategic bombing is that it's effective enough to force Miller to strip some fighters from his front line bases.  I also hope for the occasional damage to Palembang and some of the Home Island.  I may use B-24 to hit Soerabaja as I don't intend on taking that base.

I'm dealing with five or six forts too.  Very tough.

I'm having trouble carrying troops from the West Coast, but that's okay.  I almost have enough in the DEI to do what I need to do.  But of course I'm trying to move new guys forward as best I can.

Miller's garrison of Mindanao is MASSIVE.  He's now trying to garrison places like Zamboanga and Puerta Princessa.  He has time, but he's scrambling.  If the Allies can take Banjermasin and Balikpan, they can then roll up the coast relatively safely to take Tarakan and then on up to the South China Sea.  That's when I think the Allies can finally achieve some strategic surprise by moving on lightly garrisoned bases on the Chinese coast.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1597
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 1:08:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Miller won't send the turn file until sometime later today, so I'm spending some time reviewing the last turn, which Miller called "the Mariannas Transport Shoot" (not that it occurred in the Mariannas, but rather around Balikpan).

Here's the roster of ships hit by the Allied carrier force over two days:

DD - 3 (Shirayuki and Hatsuyuki sunk; Uruyuke badly damaged)
xAK - 1
TK - 3 (Moji and Nikkoku sunk; Teikai badly damaged)
AG - 1
xAKL - 42 (most sunk, the rest badly damaged)

The Allied suffered some aircraft losses, naturally - a CAP of 70 Zeros claimed some fighters and I'm sure flak and Ops claimed a share of the strike aircraft.

The Allies will have dimished carrier sorties and probably elevated fatique, but I don't think I will retire.  More likely, the Allies will take the following steps:

1)  Carriers continue to move south, rendezvous with the South Borneo invasion transports, and cover the invasions of Balikpan and Sampit.
2)  By moving south, the carriers will keep some distance between them and the KB.  If KB pursues, I'll have a few days to decide what to do.
3)  By moving the carriers south, the Donggala invasion force will be left unprotected, except by some LRCAP from the field at Gorontolo.  If the KB moves south, this TF will be completely vulnerable.  I need to decide whether leaving them unprotected is worth the risk.
4)  I haven't seen the file yet so I don't know if Samarinda is open or has a garrison.  If open, I will detail some transports with troops to take the base.  They would be in the same position as the Donggala force.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1598
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 2:51:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The situation in Thailand as we near the end of May 1944:

1. Tavoy just fell to the Allies. The Chinese units will follow and press the retreating Japanese army. The other Allied units will move toward Bangkok.
2. Some of the Allied units currently around Bangkok will move east to Nikon Richtisima (spelling, hah!).
3. If the Allies can break through at Nikon, they will then move toward the coast via the northern route (to Ninh) rather than the southern route (to Saigon).




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1599
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 9:34:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/29/44 and 5/30/44
 
I had a disastrous day at work today.  I somehow managed to click a series of buttons that pretty much wrecked our website.  The good news is that I'm the boss, so I won't be fired.  The bad news is that I'm pulling my hair out trying to fix things.  I'm making some progress, but -oy! - what a day.

Meanwhile, the IJN carriers had remained up NE of Mindanao, so I proceeded with my plan - Allied carriers move south through Makassar Straits to rendezvous with southern Borneo invasion TFs.  I did leave the Donggala invasion TF all but unprotected to hit those beaches.

With all that was going on at work, I wasn't able to give the attention to detail that I might ordinarily.  Then I sent the file to Miller.  He emailed back that he expected a titanic struggle if I stayed around Balikpan.  So he apparently thought that was my target.

My carriers will actually be well to the south, but I guess there's a chance the two sides could colide.

What really worries me is that my preoccupation with the "crisis" at work may have caused me to overlook some things.  But maybe not.

We'll see.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1600
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 9:55:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well, I've just started reading the combat report.  I understand why the following combat took place - two sides sent ships to the same port - but I DON'T understand what the heck this Japanese armada was doing near the front lines.  Get a load of this:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Bandjermasin at 61,102, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
     E Akikaze, Shell hits 13,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     E Shimakaze, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
     E Nadakaze, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
     E Kamome, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
     E Maeshima, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
     TK Amatsu Maru, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Arima Maru #4, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     TK Azuma Maru #2
     TK Choran Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires
     TK Juko Maru, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires
     TK Kaijo Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
     TK Kanze Maru, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
     TK Kozui Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     TK Kuremente Maru, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
     TK Kyoko Maru
     TK Mirii Maru, Shell hits 14, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Mitu Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires
     TK Nichiei Maru, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
     TK Nissan Maru
     TK Nissho Maru, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
     TK Ose Maru, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Ryuei Maru, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
     TK Samui Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
     TK Sanraku Maru, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
     TK Shoyo Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     TK Tennan Maru, Shell hits 1
     TK Terukawa Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     TK Toen Maru, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
     TK Yamazuru Maru, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
     TK Yuho Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     TK Zuiyo Maru, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Toyoura Maru, Shell hits 30, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
     TK Seiryu Maru, Shell hits 21, and is sunk
     TK Fukko Maru, Shell hits 22,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     TK Katsukawa Maru, Shell hits 27, and is sunk
     TK Fukoku Maru, Shell hits 16,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     TK Mutsuyo Maru, Shell hits 12, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
     TK Shoun Maru, Shell hits 24, and is sunk
     TK Yamamiya Maru, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
     TK Oyashima Maru, Shell hits 39, and is sunk
     TK Tsuruha Maru, Shell hits 9,  heavy fires
     TK Sansho Maru, Shell hits 46, and is sunk
     TK Chuko Maru, Shell hits 24, and is sunk
     TK Namba Maru, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Urato Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Chinkai Maru, Shell hits 20, and is sunk
     TK Shichiyo Maru, Shell hits 32, and is sunk
     TK Hirota Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Azuchisan Maru, Shell hits 21, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Nishi Maru, Shell hits 32, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
     TK Bushu Maru, Shell hits 18, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     TK Mayasan Maru, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
     TK Kinmo Maru, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     TK Kyokuzan Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
     TK Kurogane Maru, Shell hits 21, and is sunk

Allied Ships
     CA Pensacola, Shell hits 2
     CA Quincy, Shell hits 2
     DD Cowell
     DD Nicholas
     DD Sampson, Shell hits 4
     DD Anderson
     DD Dunlap
     DD Perkins
     DD Flusser
     DD Selfridge
     DD Nizam, Shell hits 4
     DD Norman
     DD Paladin, Shell hits 1
     DD Racehorse, Shell hits 1
     DD Rapid
     DMS Hamilton, Shell hits 3



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1601
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 9:59:02 PM   
Smeulders

 

Posts: 1879
Joined: 8/9/2009
Status: offline 		Is the only appropriate response to that, that's a very strange move.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1602
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 10:12:08 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

5/29/44 and 5/30/44
 
I had a disastrous day at work today.  I somehow managed to click a series of buttons that pretty much wrecked our website.  The good news is that I'm the boss, so I won't be fired.  The bad news is that I'm pulling my hair out trying to fix things.  I'm making some progress, but -oy! - what a day.


I friend of mine at work some years ago told me a story from another company. He was handed a new employee to work for him, a gentleman just emigrated from Russia and with extensive computer experience. Needing to run off to a meeting, my friend pointed him to some system operations manuals and told him to look them over until he came back and could spend some time with him.

The gentleman sat down at the system console, opened up the command language reference manual (an A through Z dictionary of system commands), started on page 1 and began typing in commands...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1603
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 10:15:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/31/44 and 6/1/44
 
What an odd turn with lots of carnage and oddities...and it all came about because Miller thought I was invading Balikpan, I didn't think he'd send his carriers into the Makassar Strait, and he apparently thought his vast tanker fleet was safe.  The skinny:

KB at the North of the Makassar Strait:  Takes station around Jolo on day one, and probably a bit further south day two.  Too far away to mess with the Allied carriers, but close enough to hit some transports and combat ships.  The KB used up some sorties and lost a nominal number of aircraft.

Donggala:  The essentially unprotected Allied invasion fleet at Donggala wasn't really molested on the first day, but got clobbered on the afternoon of the second.  The Allies will lose a modest mixture of xAP, xAK, LST, DE and similar ships.  But the Allies had time enough to land 300+ AV.  The garrison is about 110 AV, so that bodes well.

Balikpan:  I had things set up for my carriers to move well to the south with some combat ships heading into port looking for transports.  My main objective was to try to sink ships so that my carriers wouldn't waste sorties on them.  I got a few ships and carrier air got a bunch.  But for some reason some of my ships hung around (they were to retire to Kolako in southern Celebes).  I lost a few ships including CA Baltimore and a DD or two.  A CVL also took a hit.  Not sure how a CVL ended up there yet.

Banjermasin:  But the main action happened at Banjermasin, where Allied combat TFs and carrier air just ripped apart the Japanese tanker fleet.  I mean, how many tankers do the Japanese get?  Miller must've lost 40 plus a few other odds and ends.  What was he doing here?  Japanese LBA sortied in number sufficient to wear out Allied CAP and score a few hits against a few scattered ships.  The Allies began landing at Banjermasin (I had sent the APA ahead to get a head start).  This will be a tougher battle.  Miller has 200 AV present.  I landed about 40 with plenty more available tomorrow, but I'm not sure I can risk hanging around - the Allied carriers may be running too low on sorties now (they were at 82% after the previous turn).

The Skinny:  Unless the Allies foul things up and come out on the losing end of a big carrier battle, this has been a great victory....I think.  I am assuming that the loss of this many tankers is a great blow to Japan.  I probably ought to pull my ships out, get them refueled and reprovisioned, and then go from there. 

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1604
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 10:18:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I counted nearly 50 tankers sunk or very heavily damaged in the list above.  There were another dozen or so hit by carrier air during that day and the following day.  Might have been some duplicates, but fair to say Japan lost 50 tankers.

Q-Ball (and other IJ players), how does that affect Miller?  Does he have enough tankers to absorb the blow, big as it was, and fight on?  Or is this crippling?

What was Miller thinking?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1605
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 10:24:05 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, I've just started reading the combat report.  I understand why the following combat took place - two sides sent ships to the same port - but I DON'T understand what the heck this Japanese armada was doing near the front lines.  Get a load of this:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Bandjermasin at 61,102, Range 6,000 Yards



It may not be too much of an overstatement to say that the war ended today.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1606
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 11:11:08 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I counted nearly 50 tankers sunk or very heavily damaged in the list above.  There were another dozen or so hit by carrier air during that day and the following day.  Might have been some duplicates, but fair to say Japan lost 50 tankers.

Q-Ball (and other IJ players), how does that affect Miller?  Does he have enough tankers to absorb the blow, big as it was, and fight on?  Or is this crippling?

What was Miller thinking?


WOW. That was NUTS! Why would they be at Banjermisan? Maybe to suck the Oil/Fuel overland from Balikpapan? That's all i can think of. Either that, or Miller was parking them temporarily to wait for something to clear, and forgot about them.

The only reason to have a TF that large is to avoid subs. Defeats the purpose though if they are ANYWHERE near an Allied warship, very foolish to keep them together.

Losing that many tankers is bad, but looking at the list, there are some Mediums in there, alot of them are Std A/B/C/D conversions. I think the Japanese can afford alot of tanker losses, because in 1943/1944 between TK builds and the conversions there are alot being built. I'd be curious to know how many other tankers he has lost, but if this is most of his losses for the game, he'll be fine IMO.



_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1607
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/5/2010 11:18:32 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Wow

That would be a wtf moment if I saw that in a combat report.

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 1608
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 12:15:27 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		To close for the day....tomorrow I have a very, very difficult decision to make.

Some of my carrier TF mission sorties were as low as 82% following the "Balikpan Transport Shoot" that occurred two days ago.

Following the "Banjermasin Turkey Shoot" of the past two days, I suspect that has fallen to 65%.

I also have a few damaged carriers - one CVL took a bomb and one CVE took a torpedo.

My carriers are a little far forward near Banjermasin.  The closes friendly ports are Kolako and Watampone on Celebes, but both are relatively small (level four and level two airfields, respectively).

If Miller comes "full speed ahead," he will catch my carriers and pilots a little fatigued.

I haven't seen the precise location of the KB yet, but I think it's near the upper end of the Makassar Strait.  I'm at the bottom end.  So if I retire, the first day the KB shouldn't be able to get close enough to fight.  But the second day could be a different matter.

I'll have alot of orders to issue.

(in reply to Ketza)
Post #: 1609
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 12:49:01 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Wow, weird Bad luck or not Miller had no reason to have that many tankers in a single, or even 5, task forces. I have never seen or read about a worse result. I guess the only saving grace for Miller is that he was not going to have much use for those tankers for too much longer. I don't know how many tankers he has but it almost considers a change in strategy. You need not deny him the oil, he can not ships. I know tankers burn easy but how your task force did not run out of ammo is beyond me. I have enjoyed this AAR, but this game is over. Miller has done a great job of preserving his carriers, but to no avail. Finish the job, bomb the remaining oil resources into submission, kill his industry and let the strategic bombing begin.


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1610
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 1:18:45 AM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		If the tanker loss is as bad as most of us think it is I would guess he will come at you with KN full throttle. Maybe it was even a trick or elaborate plan.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1611
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 2:39:04 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		He really might not have all that much left to lose - I would expect he may come after you with full guns blazing now, so pulling the carriers back closer to LBA isn't a bad idea.

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Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Ketza)
Post #: 1612
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 3:29:09 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I counted nearly 50 tankers sunk or very heavily damaged in the list above.  There were another dozen or so hit by carrier air during that day and the following day.  Might have been some duplicates, but fair to say Japan lost 50 tankers.

Q-Ball (and other IJ players), how does that affect Miller?  Does he have enough tankers to absorb the blow, big as it was, and fight on?  Or is this crippling?

What was Miller thinking?

Dan,

This was huge. Inexplicable, but huge. I don't see how he can go on for more than a couple months or so. You've effectively destroyed his connection to oil from the DEI. Fuel can still be gotten with inefficient xAKs, but no more oil. Bye bye.

Well done.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1613
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 3:37:36 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		How could they end up at that port? They can't load there.

- Closest port he thought you would not air attack, so as to protect them until they could get away?

- An AI or rather A unI thing, where sometimes a TF will flee to avoid a perceived threat?

Any comment from him?

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1614
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 7:41:12 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's Miller's reply to my question about what happened:

"They were loading fuel when your carriers showed up, I decided to flee when perhaps I should have disbanded them in port but its too late to worry about that now. The result of the suface combat was a joke, but if they had not killed them yout carrier a/c would have."


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 1615
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 7:58:45 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		I thought Knavey posted this and I was looking through my books for the IRL incident.

As for the combat result being a joke, 2 CA & a dozen DD deserve to make a mess of fragile, partially loaded TK left in the front line.

(Maybe he previously dropped some fuel there and needed it to keep KB on the road)


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1616
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 9:15:37 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/29/44 and 5/30/44
 
I lost track of the correct date in my AAR yesterday due in part to the disaster at work and in part to the mayhem in the game.  Anyhow, the dates on this entry are correct.  I should also note that my preoccupation with work led to a failure to check all settings in the game, which resulted in some short term problems but probably some long term benefits.  Alot to discuss following yesterday's "Borneo Tanker Shoot."

Borneo Tanker Shoot:  The clash occurred off the southeastern tip of Borneo.  It seems that Miller had a ton of TK and AKL at Balikpan at the same time he thought the Allies were invading Mindanao.  When my ships suddenly moved south into the Makassar Strait, he ordered most of his to weigh anchor and head for Java.  But my combat ships caught up with the tankers and, as noted above, decimated them (with some help from Allied naval air).  Over four days, the Allies destroyed well over 100 ships around the Balikpan to Banjermasin arc.  Of the 50+ tankers destroyed, about half seem to be 8-pointers and the other half 2-pointers.  So these weren't gigantic ships.

KB:  Ended up between Balikpan and Tarakan.  As noted, Miller's carrier air knocked out a CA Baltimore, a DD or two, and some troop transports at Donggala (but not before they unloaded 90% of the troops).  His carriers are in position to intercept vulnerable Allied transports at the bottom of the Makassar Strait if he wants to give chase.  I think, but I'm not positive, he'll elect to do so despite the threat from subs and the Allied carriers. 

Air Losses:  Over the two-day turn, the Japanese lost 400 aircraft - mainly LBA.  The Allies lost about 100 - mainly carrier air.

Allied Carriers:  I had ordered the Allied carriers to take position near Banjermasin to protect the various amphibious TFs....but here's the one place my work situation really hurt me...but helped me.  The carriers are all set to follow TF 138, a combat group.  I forgot to set TF 138 to remain on station.  So the carriers provided CAP for one turn, then retired toward Darwin, making it almost to Ruteng, an Allied base on the western tip of Flores.  That's really fortunate because it means that my carriers are not at risk of interception, as they would have been were they still around Banjermasin.  My carrier fighter squadrons are down to about 75% strength and strike aircraft are down to 60% mission sorties.  I'm also distant from any bases large enough to provide stout land-based CAP.  These factors mean my carriers shouldn't chance a fight with the KB.  That, in turn, means I must leave the transport TFs uprotected.  The carriers will sprint for Darwin to replenish and replace lost aircraft.

Carrier Attrition and Condition:  The Allies will probably lose CVE Saginaw (she was providing CAP for a transport TF and wasn't part of the main carrier force).  One CVL suffered light/moderate damage and remains part of the main force.  As soon as my carriers replenish, they'll be back on the hunt.

Transports:  The Allies have a bunch of transports out in no-man's-land - the group that was loaded with troops for Dadjangas and the group loaded with troops for South Borneo.  I have divided these into various fast and slow groups and all will make their way as best they can for ports on Timor.  If the KB gives chase I will probably lose a bunch of these, but they do have a fairly decent head start.

DEI/Philippines:  Miller has created so many heavily garrisoned bases with such a vast network of interlocking airfields that I am nearly convinced that trying to force my way to the South China Sea via the northern route (Tarakan to Miri arc) will be prohibitively expensive (you guys have been telling me this for weeks, but I'm stubborn).  I'm not quite as sure about the southern route (South Borneo).  Recon also shows that Balikpan and Samarinda are stoutly garrisoned.  Taking all this in, I have decided to transfer the two Army divisions at Darwin prepped for Balikpan to southeast Asia.  I have enough troops in the DEI to continue offensive operations there, and I think I can put those two divisions to better use in SEAC.  The Allies will continue offensive operations to keep up the pressure.  I have a large army prepped for Makassar and will proceed against it next while, at the same time, finishing off Kendari in the coming weeks.

Thailand:  The fall of Tavoy has freed up troops to assist in the siege of Bangkok and to move on Nikon Richtisima, an important crossroads city to the east.  The Allied troops surrounding Bangkok will go ahead and move into the city.  They will try a probing attack to determine if conquest is possible within a reasonable time.  If so, the siege continues.  If not, I will strip part of the army (leaving a holding force in place) and send it east to try to push to the Vietnamese coast.

Balance of Power:  The weird battle of the past four days has not been as lopsided as it seems what with the Allies losing CA Baltimore and, in all likelihood, CVE Saginaw.  And yet it seems to have been a staggering blow to the Japanese.  The Allies are right on the cusp of closing down several major oil and resource centers due to proximity to new and growing Allied bases.  The massed Allied carrier force is at least a match for the KB - if not superior - as long as I don't blunder into a massed LBA/KB ambush. 

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1617
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 2:02:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/31/44 and 6/1/44
 
Disengagement can be very difficult and messy, but the Allies succeed with losses that are acceptable considering the circumstances:

Surface Action:  I sent several CL/DD TFs north through the Makassar Strait in case the KB moved south.  I figured an intercept in the narrows might prove useful.  No KB, but there is sharp action with a Japanese CA/DD force.  The Allies lost about ten DD (some of those were damaged ships later sunk by carrier aircraft.  The Japanese lost about half that many and had at least one CA set afire.  The IJN CA force had previously finished off a bunch of the damaged Donggala invasion transports.

KB:  The KB pulls back to Tawi Tawi with one CVL taking a torpedo from a USN sub.  Carrier aircraft sortie vs. the Allied DD TFs and against shipping at Manado.  The Japanese lose a number of aircraft to the stout CAP over that base.

Allied Shipping:  LBA hammered quite a few transports that were fleeing toward home and also applied the coup-de-grace to CVE Saginaw.  Overall, though, the losses were much less than what I had feared.

Allied Carriers:  Will spend a few turns at Darwin replenishing and then will embark for the waters around Banjermasin.  I will be looking for opportunites to hit Japanese shipping, destroy enemy LBA, and cover transports bringing in the troops that will move on Makassar.

Kendari:  Forts dropped to two after an Allied deliberate attack.  This base will fall within ten days.

Donggala:  Allied troops got 1:2 attack odds but inflicted far, far more casualties on the Japanese suggesting that the force at hand will be sufficient to take this base.

Summary:  The Allies ending up losing a bunch of ships because I could not keep the carriers in place to provide CAP.  After my carrier air sank 100+ ships in four days, I was running low on sorties and had lost about 25% of my fighters (planes lost to the enemy, ops, or down for maintenance).  I couldn't chance a clash with the KB on those terms.  Given those circumstances, I am satisfied with the overall results of the Battle of the Makassar Strait.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1618
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 2:27:05 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Slightly off topic. Are the Replenishment CVE's of much use? you seem to be pulling back to bases for replenishment. Just wanted to know if they can keep your carriers "topped off" with aircraft.
thanks

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1619
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 5/6/2010 2:51:15 PM   
Grit


Posts: 142
Joined: 4/7/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I counted nearly 50 tankers sunk or very heavily damaged in the list above.  There were another dozen or so hit by carrier air during that day and the following day.  Might have been some duplicates, but fair to say Japan lost 50 tankers.

Q-Ball (and other IJ players), how does that affect Miller?  Does he have enough tankers to absorb the blow, big as it was, and fight on?  Or is this crippling?

What was Miller thinking?


My only question, are you going to let the Emperor stay?

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1620
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