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RE: Yikes! - 5/16/2010 1:36:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/17/44 and 7/18/44
 
The KB appears to be retiring from the DEI, so the Allies are advancing.  This could be a major strategic change if the Allies can take advantage of the opportunity:

KB:  Located between Puerta Princessa and Manila.  From there it should take at least three days for the carriers to return to the DEI, giving the Allies time to proceed with the operation to reinforce the troops at Sampit, land at lightly held Ketapang (Borneo's southwest coast) and occupy in strength the undefended island of Billiton.  An Allied patrol squadron has been posted to Samarinda from which she can cover waters nearly to Singapore. This will make it difficult for the KB to pull an ambush, and should ensure that the Allies will keep track of the KB if she moves straight south to protect the DEI.

The Operation:  The Allied moves will (1) land additional troops (1+ division) at Sampit, where they are currently stalemated; land 1+ division at lightly held Ketapang, and about a division at Billiton.  These bases are pretty far forward and need to be able to stand on their own for awhile as they will be surrounded by big enemy airfields.  Those fields plus the KB - assuming it returns, which it surely will - will prevent the Allies from getting back here short term (probably until the Allies have operational airfields at two of the bases targeted here).

Allied carriers:  With Constellation, Saratoga and Intrepid subtracted from the force for repairs, the Allies have added a CVL and three CVEs.  Despite the length of time the carriers have been at sea, mission sortie levels remain high and fighter pilot fatigue low, so I think the carriers can handle Japanese LBA as long as the KB isn't added to the equation.  This makes patroling and keeping track of the KB essential.

Thailand/Vietnam:  5223 Provisional Tanks arrived on the coast a hex north of what appears to be vacant Hue.  The Allied attack at Udon Thani dropped forts from 3 to 1, so this base will fall soon.  The Allied army approaching Udon (far to the east of Bangkok) is still a week away from this target.  The Chinese army advancing from the interior towards Hanoe will reach the border in a few days.  There's alot going on in SEAC, with stout armies on the move but vast areas lightly guarded by either side, so I don't know what the long term effect of this offensive will be.  The Allies are moving east in strength, but don't have any good supply sources.  Yet the Japanese strongpoint at Bangkok is isolated and largely irrelevant now.  So both sides have some problems, but the Allies seem to have more opportunities.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/16/2010 1:38:57 PM >

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1711
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 2:18:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/19/44 and 7/20/44
 
Well, darn it, my "perfect" plan isn't going perfectly, which means that the tension is increasing as the the possibility of counterattack increases:

South Borneo/Billiton Invasion:  For reasons that I can't pinpoint, both my carrier TFs and my transports TFs only moved a few hexes over two days (refueling might have slowed them down, or perhaps waiting for laggards to catch up).  Instead of both being SW of Sampit in position to strike at Sampit, Ketapang, and Billiton Island beginning tomorrow, they are instead between Soerabaja and Banjermasin.  To add to the stress, the KB has disappeared from the screen.  I have PBY patrols reaching deep into the South China Sea, but it is possible that fast moving carriers and combat ships could elude detection...and if that's the case the carriers could arrive on the scene tomorrow.  *ACK*!  What am I to do?  Well, I'll carry on as it just feels right to do so:

Transports:  The Sampit transports will head to the beaches (they should arrive on the second day and therefore have the best chance of success); the Billiton Island fast transport TFs will likewise head for the beaches and should arrive on day two (carrying a base force and part of an RCT); the rest of the transports (carrying the Ketapang force and the rest of the Billiton force) plus the carrier will take station between Sampit and Ketapang.  This is an advanced and therefore precarious position.

LBA:  After hammering Balikpan, some of the Allied 4EB will shift focus to Soerabaja's airfield.

Balikpan:  The Allies have three divisons present; a fourth will reach the hex from Samarinda tomorrow; a fifth is on transports near Makassar waiting for the "all clear" before heading to Samarinda to unload.  Once the Allies have all five present, the attacks will commence.

Tarakan:  I *think* the Japanese base south of Tarakan is open.  The Allies will mount a fast transport invasion within the week if it remains vacant.  The Allies also have troops prepping for Tarakan (located at Makassar).  If the Japanese descend upon the Java Sea to contest the invasions of Billiton and Ketapang, then the Allies can quickly mount a move on Tarakan.

Indochina:  5223 Provisional Tanks found Hue unoccupied and will attack tomorrow.  I expect Udon Thani in northern Thailand to fall tomorrow.  The Allied army moving on Udon in eastern Thailand should arrive within the week.  The Chinese army moving on Hanoi arrived on the Chinese border yesterday and are probably about 7-10 days away from Hanoi.  I have no idea if Miller is aware of this move, nor do I know what force he has in northern Vietnam.  The Chinese have about 2200 AV.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1712
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 3:15:37 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Indochina:  5223 Provisional Tanks found Hue unoccupied and will attack tomorrow.  I expect Udon Thani in northern Thailand to fall tomorrow.  The Allied army moving on Udon in eastern Thailand should arrive within the week.  The Chinese army moving on Hanoi arrived on the Chinese border yesterday and are probably about 7-10 days away from Hanoi.  I have no idea if Miller is aware of this move, nor do I know what force he has in northern Vietnam.  The Chinese have about 2200 AV.

Hiya, Canoerebel.

Have his Vietnamese provisional divisions activated yet? I would suspect that your attacks in Hue and Hanoi would be sufficient to activate these forces. IIRC, he gets something like three half-strength Vietminh divisions. My rough accounting makes these the approximate equivalence of the RTA divisions that the IJ starts with. Certainly not an insurmountable roadblock, but something to consider.

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Post #: 1713
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 3:27:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I "assumed" that the Vietnamese would activate when 50th Indian Paratroops took the base just inside the Indochina border from Udon about two weeks ago.  If not, then 5223 Tanks would have activated them when they crossed into Vietnam proper about a week ago.  Or, if it takes the Chinese to activate them, then they did so this past turn when three Chinese units arrived at the border. 

As you can see, I'm not sure which event actually triggers activation, but out of caution I assumed the earliest would.

I disregarded activation in my calcuations, however, because the Allies were coming no matter what.  My hope is that the size of the invasion, and the multitude of vectors (from the west, northwest, and north) would present big problems to the Japanese even with the reinforcements.

The Allied move into Vietnam has been a major part of my "pinch" strategy since 1942.  The idea was for the British and Allies to reach the South China Sea from the west near Hue and the Americans and Allies to reach it from the east near Puerta Princessa.  But I thought the latter would occur long before the former.  That is hasn't is a factor of the British moving more quickly than expected and the Americans moving more slowly, at first, and now redirecting efforts through the Java Sea rather than the Sulu Sea.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1714
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 4:11:22 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		IIRC, Vietnamese activation happens in 1942 or 1943; NOT 1944.

In WITP, activation gave the IJA 4 crappy militia divisions, but they were fully buildable to Square IJA Divisions; almost 2000 AV total. You don't want to trigger that.

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Post #: 1715
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 4:27:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If Miller sent the KB sprinting south for the Java Sea, we are about to have a big carrier battle.

I've issued orders and sent the turn to Miller. The Allied carriers and invasion TFs will steam west into the Java Sea, taking station about midway. As noted above, the Sampit transports should make it to the beaches by the second day as should the Billiton fast transports.

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 1716
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 5:37:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/21/44 and 7/22/44
 
No appearance by the KB, so the reinforcement landings at Sampit go well.  I've only seen the combat text report, not the turn file, so I haven't seen the map yet and, consequently, don't know whether there are any signs of the KB.  That said, here's the developments over this two-day turn:

Sampit: Reinforcement landings commence on the second day and go very well.  The Allies have 900 AV ashore.  The Japanses have about 400 (when the Allies first landed here more than a month ago the Japanese had just 150 AV, so Miller's been busy).

Billiton:  The fast transports don't have sufficient time to arrive, unload at, and depart Billiton, so this part of the invasion can't take place until tomorrow at the earliest.  Even if the KB is nearing the vicinity, I may elect to chance this since it involves only fast and fairly expendable ships.

Ketapang:  I will proceed with this invasion if there is no sign of the KB.  If the KB is menacing the region, howeverr, I probably won't.

LBA:  Allied B-24 raids have succeeded in shutting down Balikpan.  B-24 and B-29 squadrons hit Soerbaja and did moderate damage, but not enough to close the field.  The combination of Soerabaja, Semereng, and Batavia (and other fields, no doubt, will be tough if they combine with the KB; but Japanese LBA did not sortie over this two-day turn despite the proximity of Allied carriers and transports.

Thailand:  The Allies take both Hue (Vietnamese port) and Udon (base in northeastern Thailand).  With Udon falling, the Allies have a 500 AV army that can move NE to Vinh or east toward Hue.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1717
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 7:18:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Okay, the map has been reviewed (no sign of the KB) and orders issued.  My carriers have been in place for four days now and will remain in place for at least two more, so if Miller wants to give battle the next turn is going to be a doozy:

1)  Troops did land at Billiton (a base force) and found it vacant.  More troops will land there next turn - some via fast transport (161st RCT) and some via slow transport.  Should all the troops land in good shape I doubt Miller will be able to cobble together a counterinvasion sufficient to reclaim this critically situated base before the Allies are ready to flood the area in a few weeks.
2)  All transports loaded with Ketapang bound troops hit the beaches tomorrow or the following day.  This is a stout force heading straight for the narrows where KB and friends would take station should they be on the way.  What happens to this force in that event is anybody's guess.
3)  The Sampit transports have disgorged all troops and plenty of supplies.  They will weigh anchor and depart for Makassar and Kendari (and good to get them away from the hot zone so quickly).  The troops at Sampit, including 40th Infantry Division, will shock attack tomorrow.
4)  Carriers to take station just southwest of Sampit.
5)  Fast transport invasion to occur at the base (unoccupied, I think) south of Tarakan.
6)  4EB will continue to focus on Soerabaja and Balikpan.
7)  I put odds of the KB arriving at 80%.  If so I have no idea what's going to happen, but I am willing to accept battle because (1) putting troops ashore at Sampit, Ketapang, and Billiton strongly advances the position of the Allies into the central DEI; (2) the Japanese have lost a ton of aircraft recently so that there is a chance that the Allies could prevail; and (3) Allied carrier reinforcements will continue to arrive so that even a carrier defeat would't result in a decided disadvantage for an extended period of time.
8)  The advanced echelon of Chinese have crossed into Vietnam.  These units should move adjacent to Hanoi within the week.
9)  The Allied army that just took Udon Thani will stream east toward the Vietnam frontier and then on toward Vinh and Hue.
10)  The Allied army pressing Udon should be in place to attack in less than a week.
11)  A decisive carrier defeat would be a bad thing, of course, and would slow the Allied advance for awhile, but at the moment the Allies are experiencing the closest thing to a steamroller that they've enjoyed in the game.  Should the Allies win a big carrier battle...well, that would probably be the straw that broke the camel's back.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1718
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 7:48:52 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		You will be soon asking the same question I am asking in my game with Cuttlefish (who can go ahead and read this): If Palembang is closed, how long will it take for the Empire to dry-up in fuel?

Closing shipping around Singapore will mean the end of most fuel shipments. How can the Empire survive?

I don't know the answer; I know that in the first year or so it's possible to build a stockpile of OIL and HI points. Losing the DEI, the Empire can probably turn off some Heavy Industry to economize, and turn off Merchant Production (why bother?). It will take months to refine all the OIL stockpiled, so it would take awhile to feel the pinch. Another expedient would be to halt Naval Construction. Shipyards burn alot of HI. Anyway, I guess we'll find out how long....

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Post #: 1719
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 7:56:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		On a similar note, I agree with your comments that both the Philippines and the DEI are valuable strategic targets, but that the Philippines offer the better and more important vector to finish off Japan.

From 1942 forward, my objective was to move up the eastern DEI via Ambon, Sorong, and the Moluccas into Mindanao and the islands between there and Borneo.  I did not truly consider changing my plan from that to a route through southern Borneo until late Spring 1944 when it became clear that Miller had turned Mindanao into a true fortress bristling with big airfields holding several thousand aircraft. 

I still wish I could've gone the Mindanao route, but I'm pleased that the Allies were able to shift directions so quickly and (relatively, so far) successfully.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/17/2010 7:57:57 PM >

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 1720
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 8:38:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/23/44 and 7/24/44
 
The Allies continue to unload troops deep inside the DEI without interference from the KB, which reveals much about the Japanese situation:

Billiton:  A Japanese CL/DD force fought a smaller Allied CL/DD force at Billiton - with the Allies losing one ship and several more set afire; but the clash forced the IJN force to retire, permitting alot of additional troops to land at this key island outpost between Borneo and Batavia.  Miller will want to counterinvade, but the force already ashore is pretty stout.

Ketpang:  For some reason, only two of the Ketapang TFs reached that beach to begin unloading troops.  The main force is lagging, which creates headaches as I have to remain in theater.
 
Sampit:  The Allied deliberate attack at Sampit comes off at 1:2, doesn't touch three forts, but causes disproportionate Japanese casualties.  The Allies may well have enough on hand to conquer this island in a reasonable time.

Japanese Shipping:  The Allied carriers launched massive raids against a bunch of Japanese DDs in and around Soerabaja.  Pilot marksmanship was incredibly poor (as it has been all game), but in the end I think the Allies sank at least five DDs and damaged five more.

Allied LBA:  B-24s from Kendari and Maumere continued to target Soerabaja against moderate fighter opposition.

KB:  Miller says he hasn't committed his carriers because, by his count, the Allied carrier force has some 1,000 aircraft.  I don't think that's the problem - after all, he could probably commit more than 1,000 LBA in addition to the KB's aircraft and, as he well knows, Allied CAP has been quite leaky - almost porous -throughout the game.  Miller's been yearning for a fight on his turf for months, and now he's had the opporutunity for nearly a week.  So I believe he hasn't sought an engagement because he needed to retire to make good pilot and aircraft losses incurred on the KB's recent mission through the Makassar Strait.

Strategic Situation in the DEI:  The Allies are just about to take bases on the western Java Sea that will not only cut off Japanese from Soerabaja and Batavia, they are in close proximity to Palembang and Singapore, and they give the Allies access to the South China Sea.  This is THE time for a Japanese banzaii attack.  Miller CANNOT permit this to happen.  He's simply got to come after me.

Thailand:  Allied troops continue to move into Vietnam.  The Western Allies are bringing enough to take a firm grip of at least one base (probably Hue) and perhaps two (Vinh).  The Chinese should create some consternation around Hanoi.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/17/2010 8:39:37 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1721
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 9:45:48 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

 
Strategic Situation in the DEI:  The Allies are just about to take bases on the western Java Sea that will not only cut off Japanese from Soerabaja and Batavia, they are in close proximity to Palembang and Singapore, and they give the Allies access to the South China Sea.  This is THE time for a Japanese banzaii attack.  Miller CANNOT permit this to happen.  He's simply got to come after me.



He's making a liar, or at least a poor seer, out of me. I agree, he has to go now or phone in the rest of the war.

Perhaps he's planning on losing, but having fun with kamis?

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 5/17/2010 9:46:18 PM >

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The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1722
RE: Yikes! - 5/17/2010 10:07:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I would wager two things:

(1)  Miller was forced to put the KB in port to replace lost aircraft and pilots (and perhaps to refuel), and
(2)  He's crossing his fingers and praying that the Allied carriers will remain in place long enough for him to get the KB back into the Java Sea.

Patrol aircraft have reported a bunch of DDs just west of Brunei/Miri.  If that's the KB it will easily arrive on scene next turn.  If it's not the KB then I am completely surprised by Miller's failure to fight like the Dickens.  It's out of character, for Miller is very good at tactical warefare and has been chomping at the bit for a chance like this for at least a year.

Whether the Allies will remain is now the question.  It's probably not even necessary, as I can't accomplish much else given good success in all but one frustrating way:

1)  Billiton:  All troops are ashore except some slow-unloading xAK carrying part of 6th Division.  I can afford to leave these low-value ships unprotected.  The Allies have landed 170 AV and will take this vacant 2/2 island tomorrow.
2)  Sampit:   All Allied forces have landed and all transports have retired.
3)  Ketapang:  Somehow, the main transport TF retired instead of heading to the beach (a failure to double-check or triple-check orders on my part).  This is frustrating, to say the least.  However, the Allies do have 150 AV ashore, which may be enough to take the base, which is held by just 2k troops.

I don't think I'll recall the main Ketapang transport TF.  These ships retired all the way to near Banjermasin and would take two or perhaps three days to make it back to the beach.  I think the Allies are better served retiring now and seeing what fruit the landings at these three bases might bear.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1723
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 8:02:47 AM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

IIRC, Vietnamese activation happens in 1942 or 1943; NOT 1944.

In WITP, activation gave the IJA 4 crappy militia divisions, but they were fully buildable to Square IJA Divisions; almost 2000 AV total. You don't want to trigger that.


Having got this far, having 4 units arrive at part strength at various locations shouldnt stop the steamroller that has cleared Burma & Thailand.

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Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 1724
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 1:10:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I've issued orders for the next two-day turn.  Based upon the assumption that hanging around in enemy territory for six days is plenty long enough to give the enemy time to organize a counterstrike on his terms:

1)  All Allied transports (except a few xAK still unloading at Billiton Island) will retire towards Makassar.
2)  Allied combat TFs will do the same, though three of them will "visit" the various beachheads tonight in case those places are targeted by enemy TFs.
3)  The carriers will retire to a point just west of Makassar.
4)  The Allies should take vacant Billiton tomorrow.  This is already a level 2/2 base, so in two days the Allies will have PBY squadrons operating out of this base just a few hexes from Palembang and Singapore.  That ought to send a shiver down Miller's spine.  I think he's got to throw everything he has at Billiton, but we'll see.
5)  170 Allied AV will shock attack at Ketapang, garrisoned by just 2k troops.  This base should fall, but it is currently a level zero airfield so it'll take me some time to get it online.
6)  Allied troops at Sampit will rest a few days.  I think the Allies have enough ashore to do the job, and I doubt Miller will send reinforcements here when he has newere and more critical crisises at Billiton and Ketapang.
7)  The Allies have forces prepping for Tarakan (at Makassar) and for Banjermasin (at Lautem, Kolako and Kendari) so will be in position to mount new offensives as soon as transports arrive at those bases and as soon as the carrier TFs replenish fuel.
8)  Fuel is going to be an issue - my carriers have been at sea nearly continuously for months now.  The TFs are low on fuel and I only have about 100k in theater (at Darwin and aboard AOs).  Fortunately, that should be enough to handle what I have in mind over the coming two weeks or so.  But we need to take Balikpan to bring fuel production "local."
9)  CV Constellation is in the yards at Capetown (53 days on repair); Saratoga is 15 days from the Cape yards and should take about two months to repair; Intrepid is limping toward Lautem and should make Capetown in about a five or six weeks.  I think she'll be in the yards at least four months and maybe more.  Hancock just arrived at Panama City and is on the way to Tahiti.
10)  The Allies have definately broken through in Vietnam, though they aren't yet threatening one of the major bases like Hanoi or Saigon.  But Miller must be pulling his hair out trying to figure out how and where to stop them.  I hope the arrival of the Chinese near Hanoi in a few days will add to his consternation.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1725
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 5:47:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/25/44 and 7/26/44
 
DEI:  Allied troops take Billiton, which was unoccupied), and manage to wrest Ketapang from South Seas Detachment.  The Allies stage forward two PBY squadrons to Billiton (a level two airfield).  These aircraft patrol far into the South China Sea and nearly meet the search arcs flown by aircraft out of Rangoon.  I will be interested in seeing how Miller reacts.  The Allies will try a shock attack at Sampit tomorrow.  Finally, fast transport landed part of an Oz Brigade at base adjacent to Tarakan.  It appears vacant and should fall tomorrow.

KB:  No sign of it.

Allied Carriers:  Talk about poor marksmanship - more than 100 TBM and Helldivers sortie against various IJN DD TFs and manage two hits.  I wouldn't expect much against a fast, nimble destroyer...but, sheesh!  The Allied carrier TFs expend about 40% of missions sorties and lose perhaps 50 aircraft to score two (TWO!) hits?  Something's wrong with this equation (either the Allies are scoring too few hits or the cost - 50 aircraft against no CAP? - is way too high.  This makes me glad I had decided to recall the carriers, which took station near Makassar.  Tomorrow they head to Darwin.  If Miller throws everything against Billiton and Ketapang, I'll probably send the Allied carriers to support these critical bases, which have created a massive and dangerous "bulge" in the Japanese MLR.

Next Invasion:  Allied transports at Makassar may begin loading Tarakan-prepped troops in two days.  I need to get transports in place to load Banjermasin troops at Lautem, Kolako, and Kendari.

SEAC:  Two Chinese units arrived one hex from Hanoi, so unless Miller forgot to check that part of the map he now knows something is up.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/18/2010 5:48:32 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1726
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 6:06:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		July 1944 has been a big month for the Allies. At the start, the Allies invaded Balikpan and Sampit with forces not big enough to take these bases from the garrisons. It looked like things would really bog down when the three Allied carriers took torpedo damage, forcing the Allies to pull back while the KB transited the Makassar Strait from the Java Sea to the the Philippines.

But the Allies quickly mounted five amphbious landings over the next three-plus weeks that took Samarinda, Billiton, and Ketapang, will take the vacant base south of Tarakan tomorrow, and strongly reinforced the Allied army at Sampit. The Allies are also reinforcing the army at Balikpan. This was done with essentially no damage to Allied aircraft, troops, or ships.

This map shows the new search arc coverage for Allied patrol craft in the southern reaches of the South China Sea.

The taking of Billiton and Ketapang and the threateded fall of Sampit creates a huge and strategically critical bulge in the Japanese vitals. Miller has to throw everything he has a the Allies now...or never.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/18/2010 6:08:33 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1727
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 6:14:54 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		You probably can't be sure about shutting off the Oil, until you can get closer to Singapore, and/or get CVs roaming the South China Sea. I think it's possible still to pull out OIL/FUEL via ports further north, and Medan is definitely still open. Still, he has a real problem now. It's weird how close our games are developing, though the timeframes are different.

Is there anyone on Bangkha? How about a landing at Toboali, and overland march to the base at the top? That would put Singkep in easy reach, and pretty much shut down any Oil from the DEI.

Is he still lifting OIL from Brunei/Miri, or do you have that shut down? You will once Tanjerso-whatever, that base next to Tarakan, is big enough for SBDs.



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Post #: 1728
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 6:42:22 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

You probably can't be sure about shutting off the Oil, until you can get closer to Singapore, and/or get CVs roaming the South China Sea. I think it's possible still to pull out OIL/FUEL via ports further north, and Medan is definitely still open. Still, he has a real problem now. It's weird how close our games are developing, though the timeframes are different.



Medan can be a very large source of fuel if he wants to get it no farther than Singapore. He can base his remaining naval forces there--with fuel coming from his rear and under LBA, plus shipyards. Doesn't help the HI's needs, but sorties from Singers can still put the hurt on CR to the south.

CR--if you can, maybe you should now look at Great Nicobar Island, and see what you can do about pounding Medan/Sabang from even farther in his rear. I believe that Medan itself has next to no storage for Oil or Fuel. Sabang is the port-head for both. Sabang is easily reached from GNI. And from Port Blair with long-range LBA.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 5/18/2010 6:44:06 PM >

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Post #: 1729
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 7:18:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Port Blair invasion fleet is at sea even as we speak - it left Diamond Harbor four days ago and is steaming slowing east while waiting for a few additional TFs to join the show.  I'm a little worried about this move as I only have a CVL and a CVE providing CAP.

It will take me a few weeks or longer to really get a firm grip on Billiton/Ketapang/Sampit to the south.  To the north, it will probably be at least a month before the Allies can realistically expect to take Tarakan.  Once those two areas are up and running with good CAP and decent LBA strike aircraft, the Allies will control traffic out of all oil producing centers in the DEI except Brunei, Miri and Sumatra.  I may use 4EB to deal with Brunei/Miri, but it will take me awhile to be able to deal with Sumatra.

While I want to shut off Miller's access to oil as soon as possible an even higher priority is to enable the Allies to seize some big bases (or cities with big-base potential) on the China coast.  I want to be sending big Allied transports to places like Amoy before the end of the year so that the Allies can commence strageic bombing of the Home Islands by early '45.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1730
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 7:59:04 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[

Allied Carriers:  Talk about poor marksmanship - more than 100 TBM and Helldivers sortie against various IJN DD TFs and manage two hits.  I wouldn't expect much against a fast, nimble destroyer...but, sheesh!  The Allied carrier TFs expend about 40% of missions sorties and lose perhaps 50 aircraft to score two (TWO!) hits?  Something's wrong with this equation (either the Allies are scoring too few hits or the cost - 50 aircraft against no CAP? - is way too high.  This makes me glad I had decided to recall the carriers, which took station near Makassar.  Tomorrow they head to Darwin.  If Miller throws everything against Billiton and Ketapang, I'll probably send the Allied carriers to support these critical bases, which have created a massive and dangerous "bulge" in the Japanese MLR.

[



No, I have yet to have any major carrier or fleet actions in my game 10/42 but am growing uncomfortable with this. From the AARs I am seeing Japanese ship AA is just way to effective. I hope that it is being addressed.

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Post #: 1731
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 8:05:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/27/44 and 7/28/44
 
Sampit:  A 2:1 attack by the Allies dropped forts from three to one; the following day a 5:1 attack took this base.  This is a sudden change after the Japanese worked hard to bolster the original garrison and gives the Allies another base (with base force already present) on Borneo.

Tangoengelor:  The Allies take this unoccupied base adjacent to Tarakan.

Axis Counterattack:  I feel sure one is coming, but no sign of anything in the works yet.  If I was Miller, I would throw everything I had toward retaking Billiton and Ketapang and would be willing to sacrifice my carriers in the process.  Win and he sets the Allies back weeks or even months (if the Allies lose a carrier battle); and it's not impossible that he could win.  But if he doesn't counterattack...well, that's not thinkable. 

Allied Strategy:  The Allied carriers are almost back to Darwin to make good lost aircraft, do a few upgrades, and rest pilots.  The ships will refuel and within four days head back to Makassar.  From there they can sally forth toward Billiton/Ketapang, if needed, or cover upcoming Allied invasions of Banjermasin and Tarakan.

Balikpan:  The last of the American infantry divisions (7th) has nearly unloaded at Samarinda and will then move to adjacent Balikpan.  As soon as they arrive the Allies will commence the assaults.

SEAC:  Miller has some units at Hanoi, Haiphong, Luangprabang (northeastern Vietnam), Vinh, and suddenly at Tourane.  So he's cobbling together a defense to meet the advancing Allied and Chinese units.  The first two Chinese arrived at the road hex between Hanoi and the base to the north, so they've severed the line of travel between China and Vietnam.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1732
RE: Yikes! - 5/18/2010 8:08:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

You probably can't be sure about shutting off the Oil, until you can get closer to Singapore, and/or get CVs roaming the South China Sea. I think it's possible still to pull out OIL/FUEL via ports further north, and Medan is definitely still open. Still, he has a real problem now. It's weird how close our games are developing, though the timeframes are different.

Is there anyone on Bangkha? How about a landing at Toboali, and overland march to the base at the top? That would put Singkep in easy reach, and pretty much shut down any Oil from the DEI.

Is he still lifting OIL from Brunei/Miri, or do you have that shut down? You will once Tanjerso-whatever, that base next to Tarakan, is big enough for SBDs.


Q-Ball, you're right, both of us have followed very similar vectors of attack in the DEI, though I don't think either of us has "copied" the other (except ascribing to the general idea that attacking into the DEI is a good idea and that Mindanao is even more important).

Early on, there was a difference as I was focusing upon mainly the eastern DEI as a route to hit Mindanao, while you were heading west toward Java. But you turned north to threaten Mindanao while I ultimately turned west, then finally south again as Mindanao looked to be too tough a target.

The fact that your are a year ahead of me is rather staggering to think about.

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 1733
MVP - 5/18/2010 8:26:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Although tough fighting and setbacks will occur, the Allies have finally broken through and made significant advances in the DEI in the past thirty days.  This progress is the result of many, many factors, but it occurs to me that there is one asset that has earned MVP status - the escort carrier.

Both sides have been continuously engaged in high attrition, high loss battle in the DEI for well over a year.  Each side has suffered massive losses in aircraft and combat ships, and, to a lesser extent, fleet carriers.  But while the Japanese eventually had to retire to rest and upgrade and repair damage, the Allies were able to remain on station and undertake new and critically important invasions thanks to escort carriers.

The Allies have so many CVE that well-escorted amphibious operations are still possible in the face of stout enemy land-based air even after three CV and two CVL had to retire due to damage.  So while the KB has been present at the front for just one week out of the last four, Allied carriers have been at the front the entire month (and, except for brief returns to port to refuel) for many months now.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/18/2010 8:27:42 PM >

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Post #: 1734
RE: MVP - 5/19/2010 5:14:44 AM   
Heeward


Posts: 343
Joined: 1/27/2003
From: Lacey Washington
Status: offline 		You may have sapped his general pilot reserve of good pilots and he may have had to transfer less trained pilots from training groups. The delay caused by the pilot transfer could be what is keeping the KB inactive. Another possibility is that he does not have enough supply reserves where the KB is at limiting the amount of replacement aircraft he can draw.

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Post #: 1735
RE: MVP - 5/19/2010 8:37:24 AM   
FatR

 

Posts: 2522
Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline 		Judging by total lack of garrizons on key bases like Biliton, the decisive point in this game was Allied breakthrough from Burma. The need to strongly reinforce Indochina, in futile attempts to salvage the situation, apparently tied down too many Japanese troops and left Miller unable to create yet another defensive line in DEI. Allies would have overan it eventually and cut off the oil flow anyway, but not without several more months of fighting.

(in reply to Heeward)
Post #: 1736
RE: MVP - 5/19/2010 9:01:24 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Can you interdict his Oil shipments by aerial mining of Medan, Sabang & the Borneo ports??

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Post #: 1737
RE: MVP - 5/19/2010 1:29:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies are issuing orders for the next two-day turn:

1)  By fast transport, the Allies will land infantry and special services detachments at Pamakasan (island just east of Soerabaja) and on the far southeastern tip of Java.  The Allies don't intend to engage in a big land campaign for Java, but I would like a few bases and I want to keep up the pressure.
2)  The carriers are in the process of replenishing and replacing at Darwin.  They've sucked the port dry, but two big TK TFs are unloading.  Some of the carrier TFs still only have 55% to 60% mission sortie levels, so they need two more days in port.
3)  Banjermasin prepped troops are loading aboard transports (this operation no longer appears "menacing" since the Allies have taken bases farther forward).
4)  Tarakan prepped troops begin loading next turn.
5)  B-29s hit Miri oil with some success this past turn.
6)  Both sides are sending troops to the coast of Vietnam.  Not sure yet who has the most or the best or the most supplied.
7)  Long, long-awaited invasion of Port Blair begins next turn.
8)  Damaged CV Intrepid made Darwin and departs for Perth tonight.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1738
RE: MVP - 5/19/2010 1:39:01 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK
Can you interdict his Oil shipments by aerial mining of Medan, Sabang & the Borneo ports??


Yes, the Allies can mine ports. I've just begun selective strategic bombing of oil and refineries. By selective I mean those bases I don't plan on taking in the near future and using myself. So I'll bomb and mine Miri, Brunei, Soerabaja, and the Sumatra ports including Palembang.

The main Allied effort, though, continues to pinch the Home Islands off from the DEI by taking bases on the Vietnam/China coasts and on the Borneo or Philippine coasts. We're very close to accomplishing this. I think within a few months big Allied carrier TFs will be roaming the South China Sea, which should choke off all Japanese tanker traffic. The Allies have already interdicted the coastal road through Vietnam (having taken Hue) though that contest may not have been decided yet.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1739
RE: MVP - 5/19/2010 8:04:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/29/44 to 8/1/44
 
DEI:  Still no sign of action or reaction by the Japanese to the Allied caputure of Billiton, Sampit, and Ketapang.  No sign of the KB.  All of this is most mysterious (to me).  Allied carriers continue to "refresh" at Darwin - all are now at 100% sorties except CV Franklin TF, which is at 65%.  So my carriers get two more days in port and then they head west to cover the following operations:  (1) invasion of Banjermas [troops are already loaded and ready to go]; (2) invasion of Tarakan [troops will be loaded and ready to go in a few more days]; (3) reinforcement landings at Billiton and Ketapang [troops are loaded and ready to go]; and (4) possibly subsequent invasions of bases like Pontiatak if they remain lightly garrisoned and the KB remains abasent.  The first Balikpan attack should take place in two more days.  The Allies should take vacant Pamakasan (near Soerabaja) tomorrow.

Thailand/Vietnam:  The biggest Allied army in Thailand swept into Ubon and evicted the defenders.  This force will continue east to reinforce 5223 Provisional Tanks at Hue, which is about to become the scene of a Japanese coutnerattack.  I think Miller has reduced his Bangkok garrison - not enough to invite an attack, yet, but I'll keep tabs on the situation.  The Chinese army moving on Hanoi (2500 AV vs. two units of unknown strength, but it doesn't take much to defeat the Chinese) will cross the river in two to four days.

Port Blair:  The troops landed in good shape, but 40 or 50 fighters weren't sufficient to ward of 48 unescorted Frances, which put four and five TT in CVE Begum and CVL Unicorn.  Another example of porous Allied CAP and deadly enemy torpedo marksmanship at long range (something the Allies sorely lack - heck, they lack torpedo marksmanship at any range).  I don't think the Allies have enough troops ashore to take this base, but we'll try a probing attack to see.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1740
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