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RE: She Does - 7/10/2010 5:16:33 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Thousands...millions...trillions of Japanese fighters and strike aircaft clobbered the port at Kiungshan, damaging a bunch of Allied combat ships and transports. Nice move by Miller.

Hopefully this will pull fighters away from the home islands so your strategic bombing will go well. Strategic bombing was tough against the AI because the AI kept lots of good fighters in the home islands.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1951
RE: She Does - 7/10/2010 8:37:47 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/01/44 to 11/04/44
 
Hainan Island:  Massed waves of Japanese fighters and bombers continue to hit Kiungshan, doing effective damage to some transports, though the Allies moved many of the ships either to Samah or out into the South China Sea where they will seek cover with the approaching Allied carrier TFs.  Overall, the Allied CAP has performed marginally, but I hope the Japanese pilots are fatigued and that many aircraft need service, because that could be important in a few days.

Invasion of Swatow:  I am leaning heavily toward invading this base with the objective of spreading to the interior base just to the north and also to Amoy.  Japanase carriers and combat vessels are a minimal threat, especially given the massive size of the Allied combat fleet and carrier force.  But Japanese LBA is a worrisome force to be reckoned with.  I could well get my clock cleaned ala Bullwinkle's example when his carriers neared the Home Islands in '45.  My ships will be close to mutliple big Japanese airfields.  However, Allied LBA can at least make an effort to suppress some of those fields...and I think my carrier force is larger than was Bullwinkles.  Needless to say, I wouldn't take this chance if I didn't feel it was necessary. 

Southeast China:  The Allied expeditionary force is nearing the road between Hanoi and Nanning.  My hope is that this force is strong enough that, in tandem with the Chinese troops in the area, the Allies can begin eradicating IJA bases, starting with Nanning and Liuchow and then rolling either south into Vietnam or north toward Wuchow (or a little bit of both).  The eradication program is important because eventually it should open up direct movement for the British and their Allies into Vietnam.  Once that happens a flood of troops will pour into China from that direction.

Mopping Up:  The Allies are in the process of taking lightly protect or vacant bases in the DEI. Salajar Island (near Makassar) and Loewoek should fall tomorrow, and troops will land at Balobec Island in a few days.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1952
RE: She Does - 7/10/2010 9:18:44 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


Southeast China:  The Allied expeditionary force is nearing the road between Hanoi and Nanning.  My hope is that this force is strong enough that, in tandem with the Chinese troops in the area, the Allies can begin eradicating IJA bases, starting with Nanning and Liuchow and then rolling either south into Vietnam or north toward Wuchow (or a little bit of both).  The eradication program is important because eventually it should open up direct movement for the British and their Allies into Vietnam.  Once that happens a flood of troops will pour into China from that direction.


If you CAN clear this mess, and take Bangkok, that route is an absolute interstate highway into China. There's one RR gap in Cambodia where you have to come out of Strat and into Move, get over to Saigon, back to Strat, then off NE of Haiphong where you go to Move again and deploy onto Chinese roads. But even with the Strategic Mode Shuffle, getting from Bangkok and into China is so easy it makes you cry to remember how hard Burma was to get through.

If you can supress the airfields before you venture east you should. I found the big bases on Formosa pretty stiff, and Okinawa can reach out and touch you with kamis too.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1953
RE: She Does - 7/10/2010 9:59:45 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
the Allies can begin eradicating IJA bases, starting with Nanning and Liuchow and then rolling either south into Vietnam or north toward Wuchow (or a little bit of both).  The eradication program is important because eventually it should open up direct movement for the British and their Allies into Vietnam.  Once that happens a flood of troops will pour into China from that direction.

Yay! Liquidation!

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Post #: 1954
RE: She Does - 7/10/2010 10:45:31 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/05/44 and 11/06/44
 
Ack!  My carrier TFs arrived at a point south of Hong Kong to provide protection to Allied shipping at Hainan Island.  I previously set all strike aircraft to range four so that they wouldn't go off on a lark, but some of the new carriers that joined the force didn't get the word...so a handful of TBM and escort flew into hundreds of fighters at Hong Kong.  I lost 135 aircraft in a-2-a while Miller lost 10.  I'm sending a few carrier TFs to Samah to try to replace the precious lost fighters (the TBMs I'm not as concerned about).  Putting CVs into port in enemy territory is somewhat risky, but my main carrier force will take station between Samah and the hostile airfields, so I think it'll work.

Next?  My recon will check out the little city north of Swatow (in the interior).  If vacant, my airborne troops at Kiungshan can assault it next turn.  But I'm still weighing between invading Swatow (in which case I'll proceed with the airborne attack) or reinforcing my south China army via Pakhoi.  Looking at the map this turn I can see some advantages to "flooding the zone" by reinforcing in the south.  I'm nearly certain such an army could break through to Vietnam in the south and through Wuchow to the north.  This would then open up the reinforcement channel (to the south) and the interior of eastern China (to the north).  It has the advantages of keeping my troops together (rather than in a new pocket) and reducing the risk to my carriers.  I haven't decided yet.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1955
RE: She Does - 7/11/2010 12:05:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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Here is the new poster-child for the argument that CAP in the game is too porous (and yes, I realize that due to bad weather, bad luck, weirdness, pilot error, commander-in-chief foibles, uber-Jap-pilot ability, kamikazee mythology, or whatever that something like this could happen....):

Morning Air attack on TF, near Taytay at 72,76

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 42 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     G4M1 Betty x 24 

Allied aircraft
     Hellcat I x 10
     Seafire IIC x 4
     FM-2 Wildcat x 183
     F4U-1A Corsair x 33
     F6F-3 Hellcat x 319 

Japanese aircraft losses
     G4M1 Betty: 14 destroyed 

Allied Ships
     LCI-549
     LST-635
     LST-636, Kamikaze hits 1
     LST-474
     LST-354
     AP Gen. H.W.Butner
     SC-982

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1956
RE: She Does - 7/11/2010 12:12:57 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 42 minutes

forget the weather. Raid was picked up at 120 miles. You could have had a couple of guys row out with a boat full of rocks and knocked out 24 unescorted Bettys!
Borked!

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1957
RE: She Does - 7/11/2010 1:08:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/07/44 and 11/08/44
 
Air Raid!  Despite my preceeding post, this two-day turn was quite eventful for the Allies.  Scattered waves of IJ air took on my CVE TF with it's 500-fighter CAP.  The Japanese lost 165 aircraft in return for that single hit on an LST.  The CVE TF should rendezvous with the main CV TF off Hainan Island tomorrow (giving the Allies a CAP of something like 1,000 navy fighters).  The three CV TFs that retired to Samah made good the fighters lost in the ill-advised raids of two days ago.  Those three TFs will rejoin the main fleet while a fourth CV TF moves to Samah to make replacements.

China:  Things are really shaping up here.  An all-Chinese army nearly took Wuchow, dropping forts from four to two.  An IJA reinforcing unit may arrive before I can take the base, but Chinese reinforcements are on the way.  Meanwhile, the USA expeditionary force should arrive at Long Soc (?), south of Liuchow, next turn.  Once that base is taken, the Alies can turn their full attention on Hanoi, to the south, and Nanning, to the north.

Reinforcements:  I have one  more turn to decide whether to invade Swatow or reinforce the first American army (at Long Soc).  If - big IF - the Chinese take Wuchow, that would open a link between the "southern pocket" and the area around Swatow.  In that case, I'm more likely to invade Swatow.  If the Chinese can't quite take Wuchow, yet, I'm much more likely to divert the amphibous force to Pakhoi, where it can unload and reinforce the "southern pocket."  At that point, the reinforcements would pour into the interior and immediately join the Chinese units at Nanning and Wuchow.  The ultimate objective is to blast through there, move on to Kanhsien, and then make for the coast around Amoy and Swatow.  Those bases are close enough to Japan proper to permit good strategic bombing.  (By the way, Kiungshan and Samah airfields are both level five already).

Operation Seven Days:  My overall assessment of this operation?  It has been even more successful and effective than I had hoped.  Having Hainan Island as a secure base of operations and then flooding into SE China through Kwangchoan and Pakhoi has thrown a big wedge between Japanese forces.  Things appear promising for the combined Chinese and Western Allied armies to move north and east while another army moves south to link up with the Brits in Vietnam.

Cleaning Up:  The Allies took Balobac Island (NW tip of Borneo) and are about to land at the base just north of Jesselton.  Over on Malaya, the Chinese units will attack at Victoria Point while a mixed Allied army continues to move down the peninsula towards Kota Bahru.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/11/2010 1:11:50 PM >

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Post #: 1958
RE: She Does - 7/11/2010 1:28:27 PM   
Nemo121


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I find it amusing that raids resulting in 165 planes being destroyed and a single plane getting through and hitting a target leads to " CAP is too porous" posts.

Just because it happens to you and one doesn't like it doesn't mean it is wrong ( that's a general point and not one directed at Canoerebel ). In war and life lots of very unlikely things happen, including a single bomber getting through as the fighters concentrate on its compatriots.

_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 1959
RE: She Does - 7/11/2010 1:35:45 PM   
Canoerebel


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Everybody knows that Nemo.

As for the "CAP is too porous" line of thought, the reason for that line of thought isn't the occasional result like this one, which one would expect for the reasons you state, but rather that they occur regularly.  They are the rule, not the exception.  By late 1944 I wouldn't be surprised if an occasional 24 Betty vs. 500 CAP raid scored the odd hit, but I would be surprised if that happened frequently.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 1960
RE: She Does - 7/11/2010 2:56:44 PM   
Smeulders

 

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Canoerebel, can you post a couple of maps on the current situation in the DEI and China ? 

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Post #: 1961
RE: She Does - 7/11/2010 3:09:34 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

I find it amusing that raids resulting in 165 planes being destroyed and a single plane getting through and hitting a target leads to " CAP is too porous" posts.

Just because it happens to you and one doesn't like it doesn't mean it is wrong ( that's a general point and not one directed at Canoerebel ). In war and life lots of very unlikely things happen, including a single bomber getting through as the fighters concentrate on its compatriots.

I disagree. unescorted Betty's getting this close did not happen in 1941 against a single carrier (Lexington I believe shout down like 18)much less against a whole task force it in 1944.
CAP is too porous. It's not just Canoerebel. It's happened to me way to often to be an anomaly. It is a regular event and it's wrong. Borked I say!
flame off



_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Smeulders)
Post #: 1962
Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 4:17:55 PM   
Nemo121


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John,

I hadn't realised this was a flamewar. I thought we were having a discussion.



As to this not being possible in 1944. Let us look at the Marianas Turkey Shoot.

1. Allied forces comprised 7 fleet and 8 light carriers with 956 planes. About 50 of the planes on each CV were fighters or fighter-bombers with, conservatively, 12 of the planes on each CVL being fighters or fighter-bombers. That gives a total of about 450 fighters available to the Allied fleet.

We'll look at it raid by raid...

Japanese 1st raid: Picked up at 150 miles distance. Resulted in the scrambling of pretty much every fighter in service on the US flattops.

Raid comprised: 68 IJN aircraft but made a crucial error in circling to reform their attack formations while some 50 or 60 miles from the USN TFs. This circling gave the Allied defenders an additional 10 to 15 minutes to get into attack position. Even in spite of this additional delay ( which allowed a lot more fighters to get into position - A Hellcat could easily travel 50 miles in those 10 to 15 minutes ) 27 of the IJN planes got through the Allied fighters and made attack runs - mostly on the picket ships although one hit the South Dakota.

An hour later the 2nd raid was spotted. 2nd raid comprised 109 aircraft and was spotted 60 miles out. About 70 to 80 were shot down by fighters but even still 13 of the remaining planes are recorded as having released on USN CVs with additional planes releasing on non-CVs. In total another 20 or so IJN planes were shot down by FlAK and on the egress.

Still, almost 40 planes got through the CAP and 13 are definitely confirmed as making attack runs on the CVs. 12 planes even survived the FlAK and fighters on the egress to make it back to Japanese decks/airbases.


3rd raid: 47 planes. Intercepted by 40 fighters which shot down 7 bombers. The rest pretty much called it quits with only a few pressing home attacks. 40 of the 47 survived despite being intercepted by over 50 fighters throughout the course of the ingress and egress.


4th raid: Comprised 27 IJN planes which attacked in 2 groups of 18 and 9 respectively. The group of 18 occupied the Allied fighter screen which got a bit target-fixated and the other 9 ( dive-bombers ) managed to make diving attacks on USN CVs. 8 of the 9 were shot down by FlAK and Allied fighters but the key point is that in spite of ALL of the CAP 1/3rd of a small group of IJN planes DID get through and make attack runs even though the Allies had "overwhelming" CAP.



So, we have 4 different raids. In NONE of the raids was the attacking force stopped cold without being able to make torpedo or dive-bombing runs. This is despite the fact that even the largest raid was outnumbered about 4:1 by the available Allied fighters and fighter-bombers.

In fact the raid which most closely resembles your Betty raid ( 27 IJN planes attacking ) managed to get 9 planes into attack position.



So, sorry John and Canoerebel but just because you dislike the result doesn't make it unrealistic. In most cases throughout the war irrespective of how tough the CAP was at least a few ( and often substantially more ) attack planes got through to attack the pickets ( and if they were a little lucky, the carriers themselves ).


Over the course of the day roughly 96 IJN planes ( assuming half of the 2nd raid turned back and half released on pickets or somesuch ) made attack runs on the US fleet. This was out of a total of 251 IJN planes. So, in the MARIANAS TURKEY SHOOT during the phase where the IJN were launching attacks and the US was defending during the morning and early afternoon 251 IJN planes ( escorts and strike planes ) attacked the USN TFs. Of these 96 planes made attack runs on US shipping. That's just under 40% making it through CAP on the ingress and making attacks.

In your example the IJN got a 4% hit rate. I think that reality and reason show your complaints to have an insubstantial basis in fact.



John,
You're free to believe whatever you want. The facts, however, do not support your belief.


I agree with you that bombers do break through CAP, just as you regularly see. I also agree that it is a regular occurrence. Where we differ is whether or not it is historical. I trust that the example from the Marianas Turkey Shoot with a 40% leak rate through overwhelming CAP ( up to 450 fighters defending the TFs and overmatching even the largest raid by a factor of 4:1 ) will give you something to consider.

I fail to see how someone can argue against "leakers" when an example from mid-44 vs 400+ fighters and fighter-bombers can result in 40% of the IJN planes committed who made contact with the USN TFs "leaking" through CAP and making roughly 22 attack runs on USN CVs alone ( 9 from the 4th raid, 13 from the 2nd raid ). I'm sure in-game you'd howl if this happened but in real life on the morning of the Marianas 22 IJN torpedo and dive-bombers made attack runs on USN CVs - with reports that one torpedo was close enough to one USN CV to detonate in its wake.


Canoerebel, I appreciate that you accept the reality but argue against their frequency. I would point to the above example again and state that ever single raid resulted in leakers and the number of leakers averaged about 40% - a not insignificant number...


I believe it is clear that the historical record does not support the "no leakers" or "very rare leakers" viewpoints. Instead it appears to support a frequent leakers rate and moderate leakers % viewpoint. Since that's what the historical record shows that's the viewpoint I choose to support. If the historical record supported another viewpoint I'd support that.

I would not, however, choose a viewpoint based on subjective "gut" feeling. That has no place in arguing for a change in the game code.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 7/11/2010 4:28:21 PM >


_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1963
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 5:09:43 PM   
JohnDillworth


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apologies for the crankiness, no flame war intended. You points are well reasoned and correct and certainly make me reconsider my position. I concede your point. I might quible with the number of aircraft saturating cap, or the fact that a single attack against well rested pilots has little chance of success. You are most certainly correct but I can't believe that the "bombers always get through". I will have to research but I suspect there are plenty of cases where the bombers did not get through. I just never see them replicated in this game. Additionally, I think the flack numbers are a bit weak for this late in the war. but that is another thread.
again, apologies

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 1964
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 5:36:59 PM   
pat.casey

 

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Nemo,

I think the fundamental difference between the game engine and 'real life' though is that in the historical Mariana's turkey shoot, the strikes you listed above more or less shot the Japanese bolt. There were no more airframes to resume the attacks the next game.

In the game though, the IJN and IJA can slam in set of strikes like that on a regular basis, gradually attritting an allied force down to close to nothing.

From a game balance perspective, many players, including me, think that one of three things ought to happen:

1) Reduce Japanese airframe production capability dramatically
2) Add a dynamic content to allied replacements so that replacement rates trend up to meet operational tempo
3) Crank up the efficacy of allied cap such that the allies can still operate effectively even in an ahistorically strike rich environment

Personally, I'd hugely prefer option #2 and I think option #3 would be a mistake since it represents using two historically incorrect mechanics to "balance each other out", but I don't think its totally bonkers to want improved survivability of late war allied task forces in Japanese waters.

If we're looking for a historical case study, I'd look at the okinawa campaign in which the US kept a fleet parked very close to Japan for about 2 and a half months. They took losses to be sure, but it was survivable.

I'd assert that, given the current state of the game engine, the historical okinawa campaign couldn't be executed because the allies would be attritted to nothingness inside of a few weeks, much less 2.5 months.

< Message edited by pat.casey -- 7/11/2010 5:42:06 PM >

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Post #: 1965
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 6:06:14 PM   
rtrapasso


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Well, that gets in the whole business of "game" vs. simulation again... IRL, Japan did not have enough tankers to supply the home islands with fuel, nor did she even have enough freighters (about 1/3 of Japan's prewar shipping was from foreign carriers)... according to most analysis i've seen, Japan's economy was doomed to tank in 1944 (and did).

Since Japan's economy doesn't tank in the game (usually), it is still possible for them to crank out airframes.

The shipping requirements are much more lenient in the game for the sake of gameplay (i assume)... the requirements of the civilian economy are much easier to satisfy even though they are significantly increased from the original WITP.

So, no, for better or worse this is a game, and will not play like reality...

i think you could make a game that WOULD play like reality, but you would drastically have to redo the victory conditions.

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Post #: 1966
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 6:16:33 PM   
pat.casey

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

So, no, for better or worse this is a game, and will not play like reality...

i think you could make a game that WOULD play like reality, but you would drastically have to redo the victory conditions.


I can't disagree in theory, but on that particulars of current state of game engine "balance" I think we're into a weird counter-historical model wherein:

1) Japanese production is too high and too easy to sustain
2) Allied production is typically too low and is bound to historical replacement rates which, in turn, were dictated by relatively light losses because of tanking historical Japanese production (which doesn't happen in game)
3) Uber japanese swarming tactics
4) The "counter" to japanese swarming tactics of sending mass allied LBA in at treetop level to carpet bomb bases

Basically the game as it currently is set up consists of the allies leveraging their bases to launch mass 4E strikes to "blow up" a series of Japanese bases in order for the allies to step forward, take the next set of bases, and then move the heavies forward.

While this might lead to a relatively historical operational tempo and has a nice reinforcement mechanic for folks who take the time to build their logical system well to support this kind of advance, it's based on a wildly ahistorical mechanic, to whit, base suppression via 4E bombers.

The 4E sledgehammer approach, in turn, is dictated by the fact that the allies really can't operate near a large number of Japanese bases for any appreciable period of time, even late in the war, so they *have* to suppress their way in using the ahistorical 4E strikes. Two bad mechanics sort of cancel each other out. and lead to a "semi" historical game feel, but its based in a pair of artificial components.

Now its an open question as to what the game would look like if an effort were made to correct both of these mechanics; would it be more fun/engrossing/intellectually interesting? Would it, in other words, make a better game?

I don't claim to have the answer to the above, but I do think we all need to recognize that the game, as currently played, as a variety of very artificial components in it, so wrapping ourselves in the flag of "historical accuracy" to defend a mechanic we particularly like is often, imho, rather hypocritical.

(in reply to rtrapasso)
Post #: 1967
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 6:23:25 PM   
Nemo121


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John,

I appreciate your response. It takes character to actually look at something and reconsider one's opinion. Kudos to you.

I will add that I don't contend that "the bombers always get through". I'm no Douhet. I merely contend that they don't always NOT get through.

In the example I chose 40% got through. I chose that battle as an example as it has gone down in history as a "Turkey Shoot" when, in reality, 100 ( roughly ) attack planes getting through to make attack runs would give me a heart attack any day of the week. Only poor pilot experienced prevented some more serious hits. I am utterly certain you could find examples in which none got through. I think that, in general, some "small to medium %" have a high likelihood of getting through "most of the time".

I think that the discussion should be around:
a) what is the range of that "small to medium %" which get through and
b) what's "most of the time".

I think though that that's an almost impossible discussion since we will be comparing ahistorical setups with historical results. I do think it might be interesting if someone could mock-up the Marianas strikes in-game though. My gut feeling is that we'd see more A2A kills for the Allies ( I think air combat is still too bloody ), fewer leakers but an end result which was roughly the same. That's based on observation not testing though.


Pat,
I agree with you on almost every point. |I think though you are mixing arguments ( as I think you accede in your post ).

What makes the game results ahistorical is that the maximal Japanese effort at the Marianas Turkey Shoot often represents just an average day in 1944 for the Japanese Empire. In most games in 1944 it appears that Japan can send 1,000 planes in a day if the Allies get close to multiple bases and not just the 300 or so seen here. The end-result of multiple large strikes is a fatiguing of CAP such that the later strikes have very large numbers of leakers and unhistoric results.

However the solution to a strategic problem like this lies not in changes to the tactical code. Instead wemust try to solve strategic problems on the strategic level.

So:
1. Reduce Japanese airframe production dramatically - No, I am not in favour of artificial limits on airframe production as a form of "play balance". By the same token though neither am I in favour of the current unchangeable nature of Allied airframe production and EA will contain a solution to this issue which is consistent with maintaining game balance and the link between logistics and opportunity cost. My solution also ramps up rather nicely in terms of requiring additional logistics input for the same output as time goes by. E.g. to get 100 additional top=range fighters in 1944 will require a HECK of a lot more shipping and supplies siphoned off away from the front lines than it would have in 1941.

It also allows the Allied player to finetune their production such that a player who has enough bombers can focus on producing more fighters while a player with enough fighters but too few bombers ( or just a Douhetian belief in bombers ) can, instead, focus on producing more bombers.

Combined with a little tinkering with upgrade paths and suchlike and I think EA should, largely, solve the issue with lack of Allied fighters vis a vis Japanese airframes. Best of all it is a balanced, strategic solution and not one which simply limits Japanese production to a certain arbitrary limit.



2. No, this is not a good solution either as it requires no skill. What you seem to be suggesting is if Allied P51 losses in a month are 100 planes and the replacement rate is 50 then the next month's replacement rates would increase ( perhaps to 100 ). The problem with that is that it would reward poor players for poor play. In effect the worse you play and more you lose the more the game seeks to compensate you for your poor play. It would have the effect of removing any impetus to learn and play better and would see excellent players who husband their forces and get more from less being given less. No, in game design terms if you actually care about rewarding good play and punishing bad play that's a disaster.

No, again, you want a solution which rewards good play and punishes bad, which is dynamic but requires planning and which doesn't "reward" high loss rates in excess of foreseen need. EA will, I think, have that solution. The solution I've implemented will require player effort on a strategic level in order to gain the strategic benefit of receiving more planes of the types useful to them per month. It will require forward planning and it will actively punish players who make poor strategic decisions.

I think, personally, that's a better game design solution than a system which actually will tend to reward poor play ( I know it isn't intentional but that's what will happen ).


3. Cranking up Allied CAP efficiency... No, you don't solve a strategic and operational problem by unbalancing the tactical side of the game. The outcome of the change you suggest would be to make Allied CAP ahistorically effective when in a historical level threat environment and would have the unintended result of teaching the Japanese player that "small strikes NEVER get through". What this would do is force the Japanese player to focus everything on creating even more, bigger strikes.

In short it would actually worsen the problem you are trying to solve as it would make smaller, historical strikes even less effective.



The solution to this strategic and operational issue lies in two areas:
1. Strategically making Allied airplane production responsive to the player's strategic needs and input but doing so in a balanced fashion which punishes player incompetence severely and requires increased effort in order to get increased production in later years. It should also show the effect of the diversion of resources.

2. IJN pilot production needs to be reduced from Scenario 2 levels to something much more reasonable. The USN also needs to have much-increased on-map training in order to create a historical ability to replace trained pilots with reasonably trained pilots at a reasonable rate. Right now the combination of massive on-map training for Japan, very limited USN/USMC on-map training and huge numbers of poor graduates on both sides skews the air war significantly in 1944. Fortunately this was a very simple thing to fix and the fix is already in EA. Best of all that fix is integrated with the strategic-layer fix for plane production and I think it works well as there was an anticipated side-effect of the variable plane production fix in terms of over-producing obsolescent types. Such is the life of mods. Without code access one can't fix everything without consequences.

Lastly and this isn't something I can fix in a mod like EA
3. Operationally allied players need to wear the Japanese down more before they venture into mass-kami range.

I don't think the tactical layer has anything to offer this solution. I think fiddling with it would actually make things far worse and cause the opposite of what you are trying to cause.


I would also say that anyone who played EA in WiTP will tell you that it is VERY easy to crash the Japanese economy in that mod. EA for AE will be no different. Before 1944 producing hordes of airframes will only be possible at a massive cost in other areas. After mid-44 Japan can produce hordes of kami-type planes but their quality will be very, very low and they will be very, very vulnerable to FlAK ( including naval - I've read the naval FlAK discussions with interest ).

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 7/11/2010 6:24:13 PM >


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Post #: 1968
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 6:45:04 PM   
pat.casey

 

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Nemo,

I actually agree with you relatively strongly in that I don't want, say, an automatic feature which always cranks up allied production enough to offset any conceivable loss level. Those sorts of artificial "counter momentum" mechanics which reward poor play in the name of "balance" always annoy me, likely as much as they appear to annoy you.

What you're doing with EA sounds interesting, in that it gives the allies more control of the relative weighting of their industrial "spend" e.g. I can choose more ships and less planes or vice versa.

What I do struggle with though, is that, quite apart from game balance, the "real" war did have a counter-momtetum component into it in that I at least have a hard time seeing, the US *not* reacting to, say, the loss of hawaii, by massively shifting resources from Germany to the Pacific. Naturally there'd be a huge "victory point" cost for having to play that card, but its probably a close analog to the real world.

Point being I suppose is that I'm conflicted in that I don't want an artificial failure rewarding scaling factor on allied production either for gameplay reasons, but I can't see how the real world didn't have one. One of thoses cases, I suppose, where scenario designers have to pick and choose how historical they want to, or can afford to, be.

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Post #: 1969
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 7:09:30 PM   
Nemo121


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Well the solution to the situation you give would have to be in code:

Something along the lines of: If base x falls then x divisions are released and airframe production increases by x% for such and such a period of time plus x number of DDs, y CLs, z CAs and w additional CVs are produced over the next few months. That would actually be realistic as the fall of Hawaii ( for example ) would have, IMO, led to the US considering a very significant re-allocation of resources at least in part due to the fact that they would have to budget for the additional losses involved in retaking the unexpectedly captured base ( e.g. You ARE going to lose CVs retaking Hawaii. If Hawaii fell it is reasonable for the US to begin production of a few additional CVs in order to replace the CVs they are going to lose retaking it. Forward planning and all that. ) But that's a code change and very, very complicated changes they would be. There are lots of ramifications and thus unanticipated side-effects.

I think though that a system linked to geographical expansion ( as opposed to losses ) would work best in modelling likely US reactions. I think that so long as Japan didn't expand beyond a certain line America wouldn't have re-allocated too many resources. My solution is more akin to re-allocating resources within a theatre - sacrifice x ships and y supplies per month in order to gain z additional planes. It is a bit more complicated than that but that's the basic gist of it.


Second thought: Have each base be worth a certain number of "Geostrategic Reconsideration points" ( some ad guy can think of a catchier name ;-) ) and have ships, divisions and specific increases in plane production cost a given number of GR points. In that way a player who was going for a DEI strategy wouldn't be hampered with loads of CVs but no additional infantry divisions if Hawaii fell but could, instead, choose to use the shock over the fall of Hawaii and his increased % of national resources to "buy" the forces which best suit his war plan. That would make balancing the change easier and limit unanticipated consequences and intentional player manipulation.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 7/11/2010 7:27:49 PM >


_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 1970
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 7:36:48 PM   
janh

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Well the solution to the situation you give would have to be in code:

Something along the lines of: If base x falls then x divisions are released and airframe production increases by x% for such and such a period of time plus x number of DDs, y CLs, z CAs and w additional CVs are produced over the next few months. That would actually be realistic as the fall of Hawaii ( for example ) would have, IMO, led to the US considering a very significant re-allocation of resources at least in part due to the fact that they would have to budget for the additional losses involved in retaking the unexpectedly captured base ( e.g. You ARE going to lose CVs retaking Hawaii. If Hawaii fell it is reasonable for the US to begin production of a few additional CVs in order to replace the CVs they are going to lose retaking it. Forward planning and all that. ) But that's a code change and very, very complicated changes they would be. There are lots of ramifications and thus unanticipated side-effects.

I think though that a system linked to geographical expansion ( as opposed to losses ) would work best in modelling likely US reactions. I think that so long as Japan didn't expand beyond a certain line America wouldn't have re-allocated too many resources. My solution is more akin to re-allocating resources within a theatre - sacrifice x ships and y supplies per month in order to gain z additional planes. It is a bit more complicated than that but that's the basic gist of it.

Second thought: Have each base be worth a certain number of "Geostrategic Reconsideration points" ( some ad guy can think of a catchier name ;-) ) and have ships, divisions and specific increases in plane production cost a given number of GR points. In that way a player who was going for a DEI strategy wouldn't be hampered with loads of CVs but no additional infantry divisions if Hawaii fell but could, instead, choose to use the shock over the fall of Hawaii and his increased % of national resources to "buy" the forces which best suit his war plan. That would make balancing the change easier and limit unanticipated consequences and intentional player manipulation.


Those are definitely good thoughts, and would make the polito-economical side less disconnected from the events of the ingame war...

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 1971
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 7:47:28 PM   
FatR

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

Nemo,

I think the fundamental difference between the game engine and 'real life' though is that in the historical Mariana's turkey shoot, the strikes you listed above more or less shot the Japanese bolt. There were no more airframes to resume the attacks the next game.

First this is Scen 2. Japan being stronger in the "stronger Japan" scenario is sort of logical, isn't it?

Second, to be honest, Canoerebel's approach is waaay less careful that one employed by Allies in RL. More than once - including right now - he launched high-risk deep invasions in the territory surrounded by unsuppressed Japanese airbases and out of range of Allied land-based air cover. Exacerbating obvious consequences of this approach, not only Allies failed to score an early decisive carrier victory in this game (unlike RL), but, in fact, suffered some major defeats, that significantly reduced their ability to project carrier power in the mid-game, so even if he tried to follow the historical approach and engage in carrier attacks on key enemy airfields in the area before the invasion, this wouldn't have been nearly as effective as it was in RL, due to weaker carrier strength. So, really, even in Scen 1 asking for the same sort of air superiority that Allied enjoyed in RL at the same date would have been ridiculous.

As about Japanese reserves, what is the total number of Japanese planes lost down to date? Do remember, that in 1939-45, Japan produced about 67 thousands of military aircraft of all types. Even assuming that 1/3 of that were trainer aircraft, that's still 38k aircraft to shot down (ops losses not caused by damage in combat operations are very slight in AE, compared to RL, so the Japanese player is not going to crash many of these aircraft - this is not an advantage for Japan, as it applies equally to both sides). Do note, that if Allies fail to make serious progress in 1942-early 1943, this number should be higher, due to lesser pressure on Japanese war machine and economy. And of course, this is the stronger Japan scenario, so the number should be even higher, barring extraordinary Allied successes early in the game.

quote:

ORIGINAL: pat.casey
From a game balance perspective, many players, including me, think that one of three things ought to happen:

This is not "a game balance perspective", this is "me not doing as well as Allies did in RL on a given date, even if I my performance up to this point was significantly worse, is unfair" perspective (sorry if that offends you, Canoerebel, but the greatest of your setbacks resulted from the decisions like "let's make a huge jump to Curiles at the time when IRL Allies were making small steps under LBA cover at Solomons, despite not being nearly as successful with carrier battles in 1942, and not taking sufficient measures to seriosuly tie Japanese elsewhere", rather than any of code issues). Hopefully, devs won't listen to it, because ending the war by summer of 1944 or earlier in every game, instead of a significant percentage of them (as recorded by AARs) would suck.





< Message edited by FatR -- 7/11/2010 7:50:24 PM >

(in reply to pat.casey)
Post #: 1972
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 7:57:55 PM   
pat.casey

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: FatR

quote:

ORIGINAL: pat.casey
From a game balance perspective, many players, including me, think that one of three things ought to happen:

This is not "a game balance perspective", this is "me not doing as well as Allies did in RL on a given date, even if I my performance up to this point was significantly worse, is unfair" perspective (sorry if that offends you, Canoerebel, but the greatest of your setbacks resulted from the decisions like "let's make a huge jump to Curiles at the time when IRL Allies were making small steps under LBA cover at Solomons, despite not being nearly as successful with carrier battles in 1942, and not taking sufficient measures to seriosuly tie Japanese elsewhere", rather than any of code issues). Hopefully, devs won't listen to it, because ending the war by summer of 1944 or earlier in every game, instead of a significant percentage of them (as recorded by AARs) would suck.



Speaking purely for myself, I don't think the game has any obligation at all to give me historical results or ensure that I do as well in 1944 as the historical allies did. If I'm playing against a better IJN player, I'd expect to be in a worse position than the historical one and I'd expect reckless, high risk operations to have a high chance of going pear shaped and putting me even further behind.

What I do want though is for the constraints that confine me to be based on historical constraints that real commanders had to deal with. Thus being constrained by my lines of communication or difficult logistics strike me as entirely reasonable and "correct". Being constrained by an ahistorical ability of the IJN and IJA to mass virtually endless waves of aircraft against my forward positions, however, is, to my mind, a gamey "bodge" which has evolved into the game in order to offset other balance issues (like the insane 4E bomber). So while it may produce semi historical results, it does so at the expense of an accurate historical model.

I don't think, and I think some of the other posters agree, that you can "fix" the current situation by just attacking one side of the equation. There are a variety of ahistorical factors at work which tend to balance each other a bit. Make any one of them more "historical" without changing its offsetting model and you blow up balance.

Hence the trick of being a good scenario designer.

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 1973
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 8:07:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/09/44 and 11/10/44
 
Gents, I haven't been able to read your posts because I'm trying to squeeze in a few turns between activities today.  I'll try to get to them later.  There's alot going on in the game and things have really heated up:

The Great Hainan Island Air Battle:  Miller sent massive (MASSIVE) waves of fighters and bombers against shipping in the Port of Kiungshan.  This time, Allied LBA was supplemented by carrier-based fighters.  The results were dramatic for both sides - the Japanese sank at least ten low value transports (and damged probably 30 more) while losing 500 aircraft - mostly fighters. The Allies lost 200.  Here's the raid composition on the morning of the first day of the two day turn:  (1) 274 fighters (Tojo and Jack) and 46 bombers vs. 327 fighters; (2) 354 IJ fighters vs. 241; (3) 294 IJ fighters vs. 279; and (4) 182 IJ fighters and 105 bombers v. 210 fighters.  I think that's 1,102 Japanese fighters (mainly Frank, Tojo, Jack, and Zero).  Those kinds of numbers just overwhelmed a decent CAP and did some pretty good damage.  It makes for a challenging game in late '44, but it does seem awfully strange that the Japanese are capable of doing this at this point.

The Ripple Effect:  I would think the loss of at least 500 aircraft might hurt the Japanese, though Japan's supply of pilots and aircraft seems limitless.  Nonetheless, this might reduce the risk of LBA vs. the Allied carrier fleet.  That is a factor favoring the invasion of Swatow.  The situation on the ground in China (see below) also favors it.  So, the US Army airborne unit at Kiungshan is going to attack the city just inland from Swatow tomorrow.  The city is lightly held by about 1500 Japanese.  If this assault is successful, I believe the Allies will invade at Swatow; if unsuccessful, I'll weight other factors and make the decision tomorrow.  Meantime, Allied 4EB will hit Hong Kong's airfield tomorrow.  I'm continuing to shuttle CV TFs to Samah to replenish downed fighters, something I'll have to continue in coming days due to losses suffered during the big air battle.

Allied LBA Fighter Stocks:  I'm nearly out!  I have essentially no remaining P-40N, P-38L, P-51D in my pools.  Now, to replace combat losses amongst LBA, I'll have to accept P-39!  This is ridiculous!

China:  To my surprise, the Chinese took Wuchow.  This is a critical victory because it makes much more feasible movement of Allied armies from the Kwangchoan/Pakhoi beachheads northwards.  The Chinese army at Liuchow is also making progress.  And the Allied expeditionary army has joined the Chinese besieging Luc Song (spelling?), a key base between Nanning and Hanoi.  They'll join in a deliberate attack tomorrow.  If successful, the next step is Hanoi.  The Japanese position in SE China is tenuous - it is possible that the big Japanese armies at Hong Kong and Canton will be isolated while the Allies move north and east.

Japan:  I'm not sure about Miller's situation.  His airforce remains very strong, but his navy is weak due to massive losses of cruisers and battleships and the recent losses suffered by the KB.  I don't have any idea as to the supply situation to besieged Japanese armies in China, Vietnam and Malaya, but I assume that things will deteriorate as time goes on.  In Miller's capable hands, Japan remains a force to be reckoned with, but I think the situation in China may be really tough on Japan.

Map:  To follow in the next post.

(in reply to janh)
Post #: 1974
RE: Facts FTW !!! - 7/11/2010 8:20:57 PM   
witpqs


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There are also concerns out there about the effectiveness of flak, both USN absolute and USN vs IJN relative performance. Very little experience with that in my own PBM so far. There are uncertainties in the complaints, though, such as how well the involved USN ships kept up with upgrades. The AA rating of a ship is a poor indicator, because weapons like the 40mm outperform the 1.1in but have a lower rating.

As far as producing more USN ships contingent on geography, that could be done in a mod as follows. The additional ships are all produced and have (unchangeable) names with a suffix reflecting their respective triggers, for example "Nemo (H)" or "Pat (A)" with "H" denoting Hawaii and "A" denoting Australia. The ships all arrive at the East Coast and remain there unless the respective trigger had been tripped.

Like Pat I would love the tactical layers to be 'close enough' to reality that realistic strategies could be employed. Lots of things are better in AE (think you have an area covered with search? ) and some more improvement would be sweet.

Quite importantly, the work being done in DBB is rendering realistic strategies more possible from an OOB standpoint. The current layout makes it very difficult to do so (for example, now most base forces swamp the capacity of small islands all by themselves). The DBB OOB would be a better starting point than AE Scenario 1.

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Post #: 1975
Seven Days - 7/11/2010 8:21:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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Operation Seven Days map:

Edited: Notation on map "Decision: Invade at Wuchow or..." should read: "Decision Invade at Swatow or..."




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/11/2010 8:56:42 PM >

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Post #: 1976
RE: Seven Days - 7/11/2010 8:42:16 PM   
Sardaukar


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To comment above discussion, I think CAP works fine. I think USN AA might be bit too ineffective. But that's indeed discussion of it's own.

Good AAR, btw.

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Post #: 1977
RE: Seven Days - 7/11/2010 9:30:32 PM   
FatR

 

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Once again, I'd advise caution, unless you're sure that 650+ Japanese planes left after Kiungshan + whatever reinforcements that might be available won't be able to do serious damage to your carrier fleet.


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Post #: 1978
RE: Seven Days - 7/11/2010 10:19:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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I don't know any way to be sure in AE.  I could be sure in the real war.  I could be sure in WitP.  But in AE all bets are off (at least for Scenario Two).

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Post #: 1979
RE: Seven Days - 7/11/2010 10:20:03 PM   
Nemo121


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quote:

Miller sent massive (MASSIVE) waves of fighters and bombers against shipping in the Port of Kiungshan.


Hmm, I think the key part of that sentence was "Port of Kiungshan".


quote:

It makes for a challenging game in late '44, but it does seem awfully strange that the Japanese are capable of doing this at this point.


It appears strange to me that you find it strange. If you look at the situation here you not only broken through into the opponent's operational depth, you've actually broken through into his strategic depth but you have not yet established clearn LOCs ( never mind SLOCs) to your newly taken strategic objectives. This has two significant implications:

1. Your shipping will be exceedingly vulnerable. Your LBA can fly in and rotate out so isn't as prone to attrition but your naval air IS prone to not only attrition but wearing down over the course of the day.

2. The enemy is likely to massively concentrate his most mobile forces as he seems unprepared in terms of ground defences and, currently, bereft of suitable naval forces.


All that we're seeing now is the inevitable playing out of the interplay of those two, predictable factors. Just be thankful he isn't being a bit cleverer and hitting the neck of your penetration and making it a no go area unless your CVs are committed as escorts ( thus robbing you of strategic mobility during the crucial exploitation phase of this breakthrough). You've completed the break-in but now you can either settle or exploit deeply.

Given the force correlation, the vulnerability of your SLOCs and the fact that the enemy airforce can outconcentrate your naval air once away from an Allied port ( which is, I think, actually reasonable at this stage since I don't see that you've attrited his IJAAF air sufficiently over recent months ) I would pull back now if I were you and focus on letting your LBA attrit his IJAAF fighters, rebuild your naval air and create a situation where his IJAAF won't be sufficiently strong to prevent you following your next strategic break-in with a really decisive exploitation phase - not that you'll really need it cause the next break-in will be Formosa and any rapid exploitation would be towards Okinawa etc which wouldn't really require massive speed. Plus he should have both of them smothered in infantry by then - but he won't.

Pretty much analogous to the Operational Manoeuvre Group really and with the same sorts of issues.

_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 1980
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