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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: May 1943

 
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: May 1943 - 2/6/2010 11:27:04 AM   
Local Yokel


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From: Somerset, U.K.
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Now for the Intelligence Summary for May 1943. This reveals a respectable increase in Allied Army Loss Points, reflecting the higher value attributed to the non-Chinese casualties inflicted on the Nicobar and Sabang invaders. Despite the loss of two bases (strange game arithmetic here!) Japanese base points have been somewhat increased, but the gain is modest because the emphasis is on building defences rather expanding facilities.

Almost no change in the monthly total of destroyed Allied aircraft, but a reduction of 70 in the number of Japanese aircraft lost in the process. Possibly more significant is the fact that the Japanese are still attaining a favourable exchange ratio of 4:1 in aerial victories. I am relatively unconcerned by destruction of replaceable airframes, but I treat preservation of an elite pilot corps as being vital. Once you start committing low quality pilots to combat, not only do you cease to score heavily against your opponent’s aircraft but you also give his pilots easy victories and a corresponding experience gain. This double blow to the potential of your air forces is, I think, something the Japanese player needs to avoid at all cost, even if it is an objective attained at the expense of some damage to your troops and infrastructure. Whether or not your opponent smashes your nice level 7 runways is irrelevant if you are only going to be able to fly 50-experience cannon fodder from them.

One thing I still don’t understand is how, in mid-1943, the Japanese are still able to fly four sorties for every three flown by the Allies. Can Allied serviceability be that low, or has he a mass of units sitting in rear areas that he is simply unable to deploy?




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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: May 1943 - 2/6/2010 11:43:05 AM   
Local Yokel


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A few notes by theatre:

First, Burma, Malaya and Sumatra. I have now managed to eliminate the supporting units landed by SEAC/Eastern Fleet at Sabang, leaving 2nd British ID as the sole defending unit there. They are proving very hard to wear down, but eventually I must reach the point where they run out of cooks to whom a rifle can be given.

In Burma I have been awaiting the arrival at Mandalay of XIV Army’s 16 units. My recce pilots report the presence of about 70,000 troops, 500+ guns and 500+ AFV’s. I can match him in manpower, having about 98,000 men present, of which about 29,000 are infantry, all of very high quality. I can match him in number of tubes, but not in weight of fire, I suspect, as I have several AA units in the city. My real disadvantage is in AFV’s, where I am outnumbered 5 to 2. However, my armour includes 120 Type 3 Chi Nu. The long 75mm gun mounted by this vehicle is the equal of the main armament of the Lee and Sherman and should be capable of defeating their armour. I shall have the advantage of employing my tanks within level 9 fortifications, and I have to hope that this is going to be my equaliser. I also think I have a substantial logistical advantage, with good railway communications forward from Rangoon, where the dumps have more than 70,000 supplies accumulated. He is having to bring his stocks forward over jungle trails. In all, I face him at Mandalay with reasonable confidence.

In China the situation is fairly quiet as I gather my forces for the assault on Changsha. I have two divisions and two artillery units coming forward to the city, with a number of reinforcement divisions also due to arrive during June. It will be interesting to see whether, when the attack begins, he withdraws from Changsha across the river to Hengchow in the hope of forcing me to make an assault crossing in order to advance further. Such a withdrawal would seal the fate of between 130,000 an 150,000 Chinese troops in the Kanhsien salient, whose future doesn’t appear too rosy however you look at it.

I am attaching an image of the situation in Australia’s Northern Territory, where SWPac HQ and 37th American ID with other units are at the tip of the advance towards Daly Waters. The main column is reported as including 64,000+ troops, 500+ guns and about 180+ AFV’s. In Daly Waters itself I can face this with 78,000+ troops, including about 16,000 infantry. Once again, I have plenty of AA artillery but even with these can only bring about 350 tubes to bear. In armour I am his equal or better in terms of numbers. The Daly Waters defenders are, of course, dug in with level 9 fortifications. I have plans to remedy the shortage of artillery, as I have a very strong artillery unit that I can ship in during June, together with a reinforcement infantry division if need be.

What is interesting about the Allied deployment is his extended wings, each composed of an infantry brigade or, in one case, a tank battalion. 3rd Australian Infantry Bde is taking up the extreme right flank position, with 1st Australian Army Tk Bn holding the line between the extreme right and SWPac’s main force on the Tennant Creek-Daly Waters road – a potential point of vulnerability, if the tanks get forced back, as 3rd Bde is already rather out on a limb. I suspect that this extended deployment is prompted partly by a desire to envelop the Daly Waters defences, and partly as a safeguard against the kind of sally operation I mounted around Christmas 1942 that cost the Australians a full Militia infantry division. If he thinks he’s going to get athwart my LOC in rear of Daly Waters he’s in for a shock, as I have to hand a powerful reserve to meet that contingency. Thus, in this theatre too, I await developments with some confidence, and derive some amusement from the possibility that previous Japanese operations have induced excessive precautionary measures in the Allied deployment, so robbing his spear point of some of its strength.




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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: May 1943 - 2/6/2010 11:57:09 AM   
Local Yokel


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On to the Pacific, the theatre of greatest current concern to me.

31 May saw Abemama fall to the onslaught of two RCT’s, 3 SeeBee units and a USN base force. The attack was largely a walkover; I had only token forces there to resist a landing. The problem with this is the potential expansion of Abemama’s airfields to level 5, and the loss of air superiority that is then likely to occur. In this I may have fallen victim to my own success, as the Solomon chain has been built up sufficiently to make its taking a protracted and bloody business. Perhaps the Allies have decided that a succession of atoll assaults through the Central Pacific is the better alternative. Bloody though these may also be, they would leave Rabaul and points south bypassed, and if they were to succeed would constitute a most serious threat towards Japan’s inner perimeter in the Western Carolines, Marianas and Bonins.

All of the Marshalls capable of taking level 4 airfields save Kusaie are now fully fortified. They carry garrisons of varying size, but as matters stand each would need a serious assault with prepared forces. The remaining Gilberts are as heavily garrisoned and fortified as the Marshalls. The question I’m now asking myself is whether I should engage in some smoke and mirrors work, giving an appearance of strength to the Marshalls sufficient to require a prepared assault against Kwajalein at least. This would free forces that could be committed to the defence of Ponape and Brown Island/Eniwetok, Truk’s eastern sentinels. Though atoll assaults can go wrong for the attacker, my fear is that there are just too many bases in the Marshalls for the Japanese to defend successfully, and that they would do better to make Ponape and Eniwetok obligatory Allied targets that can only be taken at great cost. Thoughts?

The other – and immediate – tactical problem confronting me is my reaction to the Abemama landing. Six of 1st Koku Kantai’s seven fleet carriers are now massed within one day’s steaming distance of a riposte aimed at the US carriers currently located 120 miles east of Abemama. For two days the enemy carriers have stood within escorted torpedo strike range of the Rikko groups on Majuro, but disappointingly the land attack planes have failed to launch. I had really counted on such attacks occurring in order to raise the fatigue level of the defending CAP, so clearing the way for a rapier thrust by the Japanese carrier strike groups. Sighting reports indicate the presence of at least four US carriers – and they could all be CV’s before I even start to worry about Independence class CVL’s being present. Or they could be a CAP-heavy decoy made up of escort carriers.

So, the horns of my dilemma are these: the best result I’m likely to obtain is a straight trade in carriers – say an exchange of Hiryu and Soryu for Hornet and Lexington or Saratoga. This is attainable at great cost to my carrier air groups and still leaves the Allies with a minimum of 3 fleet carriers and a growing number of CVL’s (let alone the Essexes arriving later). I am unlikely to put a big enough dent in the Fast Carrier Force to delay the Central Pacific drive substantially. Such an exchange would also diminish the threat posed by Kido Butai as a fleet in being. These are the arguments against a Japanese carrier strike now. Arguments in favour of it are:

* I have the assistance of LBA whilst the enemy does not.

* Tomorrow he will have patrol aircraft operating from Abemama; their presence today will give the Americans little advance warning.

* This will probably be the last occasion I enjoy carrier fighter parity before introduction of the F6F – it may well be the last time Japanese carriers can compete with their American opposites on equal terms.

To strike or not to strike? I think the arguments are finely balanced. Anyone who wants to contribute their two pennyworth is welcome – but make it quick, as I have to make the decision NOW!

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Post #: 273
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 2/21/2010 11:57:11 PM   
Local Yokel


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Air battle of June 2nd, 1943 – Daly Waters, NT, Australia.

Day after day the Allied bombers from Tennant Creek have been striking this small settlement in Northern Australia, repeatedly targeting the well dug-in Japanese formations there. Particularly hard hit have been the unfortunate members of Japan’s 41st Anti-aircraft Regiment, which seems to have received more than its fair share of attacks. Recently the bombers have switched their efforts to the airfield, whose runway and facilities are now seriously damaged despite the attentions of the many Japanese engineers based at this location.

The spearhead of the Allied armies advancing towards Darwin has now made contact with the Japanese perimeter at Daly Waters, and at 3rd Air Army’s HQ in Katherine there is growing concern amongst Lt Gen Sugiwara’s staff at the extent of the damage being done to the infrastructure of Japan’s forward-most base. Plans have been laid for an ambush of the bombers and their escorts, but successive days of stormy weather deter Sugiwara form ordering his interceptors forward.

Notwithstanding the protracted storms there is no let-up in the Allied air attacks, and in desperation Sugiwara approves the movement order that calls four sentai forward to Katherine’s aerodrome from Darwin on 2nd June 1943. From here the sentai will mount patrols over Daly Waters in a bid to hold back the incessant Allied air assault for a day at least.

Despite the bad weather, the defending Japanese fighters have an exceptional day. Finding that they have been deployed with serious armament defects, the Type 3's of 24th Sentai take a top cover position in the hope that a height advantage will compensate somewhat for this. Having noted that the main Allied bomber attacks come in at 4000 feet, the Type 2 Shoki of 29th and 59th Sentai and the Hien of 65th Sentai take up a patrol altitude of 7000 feet, at which height they become heavily engaged with a mixed bunch of P-38's and the new Chance Vought fighter, with which the Japanese are largely unfamiliar. Plunging from their high altitude position the 24th's undergunned Hien are probably able to accomplish little, but their brethren below more than make up for this, even though two of the 59th's aircraft go down in quick succession to F4U guns. Although the scrap with the escort denies the Japanese an opportunity to score heavily against the bombers, several Mitchells are destroyed and much of the sting is taken out of the raid:

Day Air attack on Daly Waters , at 35,90

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 25
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 27

Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 8
P-38G Lightning x 8
B-25C Mitchell x 43
B-24D Liberator x 13
P-38F Lightning x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed, 20 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 10 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
P-38G Lightning: 5 destroyed
B-25C Mitchell: 4 destroyed, 35 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 11 damaged
P-38F Lightning: 6 destroyed, 3 damaged

Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 6

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
6 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
7 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 4000 feet
2 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet


A subsequent unescorted raid against 41st AA Rgt (the usual victims) is for once met by determined fighter opposition and a heavy toll is exacted from the attacking Havocs, no less than 25% of their number being destroyed:

Day Air attack on 41st AA Regiment, at 35,90

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 24
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 27

Allied aircraft
A-20G Havoc x 27
B-17E Fortress x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 4 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
A-20G Havoc: 7 destroyed, 13 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 7 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
42 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x A-20G Havoc bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 4000 feet
2 x A-20G Havoc bombing at 4000 feet
4 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 4000 feet


The final raid coming up from Alice Springs sees the Japanese defenders depleted by damage from earlier actions, and they are unable to do more than damage some of the attacking heavies:

Day Air attack on 41st AA Regiment, at 35,90

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 11
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 14

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 6
B-24D Liberator x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 4 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 6 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 6 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
33 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 8000 feet...


The day's scorecards show the following for the Japanese:

65th Sentai (Hien): 7 confirmed kills for no loss
59th Sentai (Shoki): 2 confirmed kills for 2 losses
29th Sentai (Shoki): 12 confirmed kills for 1 loss
24th Sentai (Hien:) unknown, but possibly accounts for some of an additional 8 kills in the Daly Waters air battles, 29 Allied aircraft being shot down in the course of these for a total loss of 3 Japanese fighters.

Particular distinction goes to WO Inoue, P. of 29th Sentai, who, having never previously scored, brings down 3 Allied aircraft in a virtuoso performance before being compelled to abandon his damaged aircraft and parachute, injured, to a safe landing within his own lines.

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Post #: 274
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 3/12/2010 3:41:43 AM   
1275psi

 

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Hi Local Yokel
herbiesan here -actually just started to read this AAR -lots to catch up.
You seem to be doing a god job
After playing me and battling all the way up the solomon chain -I don't think he would relish that again.....

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Post #: 275
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 3/12/2010 11:14:52 PM   
Local Yokel


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Hi, Herbiesan - good to see you here!

Yes, it doesn't seem to be going too badly, but critical times lie ahead as I find out whether my defences at Daly Waters and Mandalay are going to be proof against his attacks.

I fear you may be right about the Solomons. I would be entirely content for him to commit himself to a major effort here, as I think he could not dare to bypass my defensive complex at Guadalcanal and Tulagi by aiming at the Upper Sols or New Britain/New Ireland direct. Any attempt to do so would be a high risk undertaking with chances for me to hit his LOC from Lower Sols, so I think he would have to reduce Guadalcanal first. And that would be a grinding battle with me having an initial territorial advantage, as the bases at Lunga and Tulagi are pretty strong.

It's interesting that he has tried on a couple of occasions to shut down the airfield at Lunga from Espiritu Santo, but no fighters have the legs to make the trip as an escort, so my Raiden always got a free shot at the bombers. I think the damage they did and ops losses/fatigue probably put him off this plan. Although I counterlanded at Vanikoro and bagged a SeaBee unit the first time he took that island, I didn't do so when he took it a second time, and I think he's building a strip there with an eye to flying sweeps against Lunga. This will be hard work as it's a zero SPS site for airfields, and any sweeps he flies are going to arrive over Lunga in a highly fatigued state. More juicy P-38 targets for my Raiden!

So I think I now see him aiming to make progress through the Central Pacific. I can live with that provided I can fool him into thinking that each amphibious target in the Marshalls may require a fully prepared divisional scale assault - some atolls will, most won't. But I'm re-thinking the defence a bit at the moment, and hoping to set up a major showdown when he starts to close in on Truk, where I can take advantage of its large base size and shortened LOC.

OTOH, if I get an opportunity to hit him hard as he works his way towards the Carolines then I shall seize it. Before he landed at Abemama he asked whether my carriers were coming out to play. I decided that the conditions haven't so far favoured it, so they haven't revealed themselves. I'm reasonably sure they have not been spotted, but I assume he must have thought they were nearby in the light of an incident that has just taken me completely by surprise, and will form the subject of my next post.

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Post #: 276
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 3/13/2010 2:26:51 AM   
Local Yokel


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Northernmost of the Mariana Islands, Farallon de Pajaros rears its volcanic cone above water midway between Saipan and the Kazan-rettô. The frequency of its eruptions has earned it the soubriquet ‘Lighthouse of the Western Pacific’, but those same eruptions have doubtless also helped to deprive it of any military significance. Nevertheless, as the nearest land to the surprising engagement that takes place on 6 June 1943, the Japanese come to refer to it as the scene of that battle, even though no part of the action takes place within a hundred miles of its shores.

As so often seems to have happened, the battle opens with a sighting by a Navy Type 0 Reconnaissance Seaplane. In this case the SuiTei belongs to the Hataka S1/ Hei-buntai, operating from Iwo Jima, and it reports the sighting of an Allied force said to include battleships and transports some 250 miles ESE of the aircraft’s base, westbound on 5 June 1943.

Maritime protection responsibility for the Kazan-rettô and all points south devolves upon Combined Fleet, and consequently the report ultimately finds its way to the CinC himself, Adm Yamamoto Isoruku. What is he to make of it? British and American carriers are known to be operating in strength in the Gilberts to support the recent American landing on Abemama atoll, but Combined Fleet’s intelligence staff are equivocal as to whether this provides an accurate fix on the main enemy carrier strength. And the reference to transports is troubling: Japanese defences on the island chains south of Japan are building, but whilst Iwo Jima is stoutly garrisoned there are still plenty of islands that are not.

From within his usual cloud of exhaled cigarette smoke ‘Ganji’ Kuroshima speculates that this is a tip-and-run bombardment raid against Iwo, and most of the staff nod agreement. Typical American impudence! With their new fast battleships they will be long gone before any effective counter move can be mounted. But for that worrying reference to transports, the idea that the American force might penetrate the island arc is unthinkable.

But Yamamato is determined to react, and fortuitously he has the means at hand to do so. Five days have passed since refitted carrier Zuikaku departed Sasebo with an escort of eight upgraded special type destroyers, and she is currently reported 120 miles out from Ulithi en route to the Japanese main fleet base at Truk. She’s 800 miles distant from the American task force and stands small chance of engaging if this is the bombardment mission guessed by Kuroshima. Nonetheless Yamamoto orders her to reverse course and, of equal importance, to expect the arrival of additional aircraft, for her own hikotai is currently embarked in Taiho whilst that vessel’s aircraft undergo working up in China.

It’s a frantic scramble on the part of the Japanese to put together an effective force to meet the emergency, and the results are far from satisfactory, not least since they are able to direct no more than a single chutai of 9 fighters to serve as the carrier’s shield. Strike aircraft are less of a problem, and it is Cdr Fuchida himself who leads the mixed gaggle of Tenzan from the Suzuka daitai and the fighters on the long over-water flight from Truk to a successful rendezvous with Zuikaku as dusk falls – fortunately the homers in the Tenzan function efficiently, and the fighters stay close.

Meanwhile, from faraway Karafuto and their base outside Tokyo, constituents of the Yokusuka air group stage to Chichi-Jima, assembling there to prepare for torpedo strike against any worthwhile target remaining in range on the following day. There they are joined by the Chiyoda-buntai’s Type 94 Reconnaissance Seaplanes, part of the thickening density of air search assets the Japanese are bringing to bear on the eastern half of the Philippine Sea.




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< Message edited by Local Yokel -- 3/13/2010 2:39:07 AM >


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Post #: 277
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 3/13/2010 2:35:42 AM   
Local Yokel


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On the following day it turns out to be one of the Chiyoda Type 94’s that first locates the enemy, now standing 250 miles SW of Iwo and still heading west! And now the shortcomings in the initial sighting on 5 June are revealed, for this is no bombardment force, but one built around one of the Americans’ new light carriers, which comes up full of fight with an escorted raid of 8 Avengers. Zuikaku’s insignificant CAP of 3 kansen dive in, disregarding the escort, and manage to damage several of the bombers before they reach their drop point. Hearts beat faster as three attain weapons release, but Zuikaku puts her helm hard over and successfully combs their tracks.

Day Air attack on TF at 61,59
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 3
Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 9
TBF Avenger x 8
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
TBF Avenger: 7 damaged
Japanese Ships
DD Shirayuki
CV Zuikaku


Now it’s the turn of the Japanese strike group. Dog tired though they may be, these are highly proficient airmen and there’s enough of them to pose a mortal threat to a carrier task force comprising but a single light carrier. Whilst the single chutai of Suisei dive bombers approaches at high altitude and distracts the American CAP, the main component of 35 Tenzan drop towards the ocean and come in low. The American gunners cause damage and losses among the raigeki-tai, but there’s just too many of them, and the carrier takes three strikes from their torpedoes whilst the dive bombers score two hits on an accompanying anti-aircraft cruiser. Even as they are doing so, there’s a flash from within the carrier and an erupting plume of smoke and debris as ordnance deep within cooks off – from the middle seat of his Tenzan, Fuchida’s moustache bristles as an exultant clenched fist goes aloft. Seeing the extent of the carrier’s damage, some of the Tenzan break off and conduct an effective attack against one of the escorting destroyers.

Zuikaku’s strike is likely more than sufficient to doom the American carrier, but there’s a follow-up from the Yokosuka contingent based at Chichi-Jima. The American CAP is still airborne and able to intervene when they arrive, but they are heavily outnumbered by this raid’s escort and can achieve little. Eight Rikkos take damage, but the remainder make accurate drops against the crippled carrier, scoring an additional four hits.

06/06/43
Day Air attack on TF at 61,56
Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 9
A6M3a Zero x 6
B6N2 Jill x 35
Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 8
Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y Judy: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 1 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed, 28 damaged
Allied Ships
CVL Princeton, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CLAA San Juan, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CA Minneapolis
DD Stanly, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
=============================================
06/06/43
Day Air attack on TF at 61,56
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 21
G4M1 Betty x 16
Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 6
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 3 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 8 damaged
Allied Ships
CVL Princeton, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage





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(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 278
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 3/13/2010 4:34:09 AM   
1275psi

 

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cantona is making it a habit losing CV's in raids.

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Post #: 279
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 3/13/2010 12:20:53 PM   
bigbaba


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@Local Yokel:

which paint software do you use to make such great maps like in the posting #277 (the CV battle map)?

hope its something for free.

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Post #: 280
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 3/13/2010 7:01:29 PM   
Local Yokel


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From: Somerset, U.K.
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@Herbiesan - I don't understand what he hoped to achieve by pushing that light carrier so far forward, unless there's something much nastier following behind, and the CVL was intended as bait. He seemed to be operating in a similar way to the time he sent Enterprise towards Espiritu Santo for a raid on Luganville. The raid achieved nothing and Enterprise got ambushed by the KB. But Jonathan is not a fool and I would expect him to have learned from that, so I remain suspicious that something else is afoot.

@BigBaba - Most of the mapwork is done using Paint.Net, which is indeed free , and obtainable from this site. Actually I still use the built in MS Paint program for some editing, particularly for cut and paste work to set the map up in the first place. Then I add the arrows and text using Paint.Net - the arrows are especially good because you can pull them around as required, since they work as Bezier curves.

Beware using a really vivid red colour! If you want to upload to this forum you need to save the graphic in JPEG format, and in my experience you get bad 'colour bleed' and loss of sharpness of bright red elements when you convert the file to JPEG. Paint.Net can help you to reduce this somewhat, but I find you still get better results by using a slightly pinker hue. Think the same is probably true of bright greens.

With all the excitement off Farallon de Pajaros I've overlooked reports of things taking place on the other side of the Empire. The lead elements of XIV Army have now arrived at Mandalay, so I shall start to bombard them to force expenditure of their supplies. I think there must be a major supply airlift going on at Imphal, judging by the number of 'auxiliary' aircraft based there - over 300 a/c on the field, which makes it a tempting target.

At Daly Waters, he is trying to work a small unit round my flank on the east side of the base, so I shall have to attend to that. Meanwhile I managed to de-fang another raid on the airfield whilst at the same time delivering an effective blow against the Americal Div's troops there with 80+ Donryu bombers.

But the best news is that at long last the end came at Sabang. I'd been repeatedly hitting the surviving unit, 2nd British ID, with attacks by 1st Reserve Tk Rgt in order to keep his disruption levels high whilst allowing the other units a day or two's rest before resuming the attack. A useful bonus of doing this has been to push up the experience level of these second line tank men nicely. V. Adm Komatsu took over command of the Bengaru-wan Yugeki Butai and delivered a series of bombardments with the BYB's two Fuso class BB's and cruisers, but the results didn't appear to be spectacular. And Army and Navy bombers deigned to drop some bombs on the British every few days. Eventually I got a hunch that the defenders were probably on their last legs and put in deliberate attacks on two days consecutively - and that did the trick!

06/04/43
Naval bombardment of Sabang, at 19,41
Japanese Ships
CA Mikuma
CA Nachi
CA Takao
BB Yamashiro
BB Fuso
Allied ground losses:
210 casualties reported
=============================================
06/04/43
Day Air attack on 2nd British Division, at 19,41
Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 25
G4M2 Betty x 24
No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
106 casualties reported
Aircraft Attacking:
19 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
24 x G4M2 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
6 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
=============================================
06/04/43
Ground combat at Sabang
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 43940 troops, 160 guns, 80 vehicles, Assault Value = 892
Defending force 5923 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 74
Japanese max assault: 816 - adjusted assault: 1126
Allied max defense: 38 - adjusted defense: 5
Japanese assault odds: 225 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
296 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
299 casualties reported
=============================================
06/05/43
Day Air attack on 2nd British Division, at 19,41
Japanese aircraft
Ki-49 Helen x 53
No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
30 casualties reported
Aircraft Attacking:
25 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 6000 feet
14 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 6000 feet
14 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 6000 feet
=============================================
06/05/43
Ground combat at Sabang
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 43572 troops, 155 guns, 78 vehicles, Assault Value = 876
Defending force 5465 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 56
Japanese max assault: 799 - adjusted assault: 905
Allied max defense: 29 - adjusted defense: 5
Japanese assault odds: 181 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
218 casualties reported
Guns lost 3
Allied ground losses:
12011 casualties reported
Guns lost 50
=============================================


Dispensing with those high quality British infantrymen did the VP total a power of good, and actually made a perceptible difference to the VP ratio for a change. Now to deal with those pesky Australians on the Andamans.

_____________________________




(in reply to bigbaba)
Post #: 281
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 4/22/2010 1:48:05 AM   
Local Yokel


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Still going forward slowly - real life has been holding back both of us, but this seems an opportune moment to record what happened after the initial exchange off Farallon de Pajaros.

The Battle of Farallon de Pajaros - Aftermath, 6 to 14 June 1943

Two thousand four hundred miles distant from the nearest friendly airfield is a perilous place in which to find yourself if you’re part of a naval force that has just been stripped of its carrier air cover. Thoughts such as these must go through the mind of many a US sailor as they watch USS Princeton disappear beneath the waves following the Japanese strikes on 6 June 1943.

Loss of Princeton is not the only source of Allied woe. Unsurprisingly, destroyer Stanly sinks immediately from the three torpedo strikes she receives, whilst from anti-aircraft cruiser San Juan a dirty brown column of smoke rises to stain the vivid blue Pacific sky, marking the damage she received from two bomb hits delivered by Japanese carrier dive bombers. Captain James Maher blinkers to the TG commander that his vessel is good for no better than 10 knots; San Juan will have to fend for herself as she trails the remainder of the force, progressively falling further astern as her undamaged consorts depart the scene.

Zuikaku, largely the author of this mischief, bears rapidly away on a south-westerly course towards Koror in the Palaus following her successful strike, for Combined Fleet is determined not to hazard the precious carrier in torpedo water, confident that US submarines will immediately be vectored into the area.

The Allied survivors take up a course of 120 degrees, attempting to edge their way out of range of further strikes by the Japanese torpedo bombers based on Chichijima. This, however, brings them significantly closer to Japanese aerodromes in the Southern Marianas, where they are awaited eagerly by Shinzan four-engined bombers of the 1st and Takao Kokutai. By daybreak on 7 June they have advanced only three hundred miles towards safe haven and are beset by a series of further air attacks originating from Saipan and Guam.

In the first of these, the low flying Shinzan obtain two hits on heavy cruiser Minneapolis, but it is during the second attack that the Japanese deliver a mortal blow. Five more 250 kilo armour piercing bombs strike the vessel, and one slices its way deep into its vitals, touching off a magazine explosion that is the ship’s death warrant.

In the afternoon the Shinzan return. Ten of them find the destroyers that had been escorting Minneapolis. Despite the escorts’ violent evasive manoeuvres, the bombers succeed in hitting Radford and Saufley with one bomb apiece. Meanwhile, 60 miles astern, San Juan is located by two shotai of the big bombers. Her capacity to evade already compromised by the damage sustained in the initial carrier strike, the cruiser takes three more hits, yet even this does not suffice to sink her, though her speed is now reduced to little more than four knots.

For reasons that do not become apparent until later the American commander has detached destroyer Strong, which is proceeding ahead of the main body and has achieved a position 60 miles east of the site of Minneapolis’ destruction. Nine Shinzan find Strong on 7 June, but on this day she nimbly evades all bombs dropped against her.

By the following day, 8 June, damaged Radford and Saufley have advanced another 240 miles but are still well within Shinzan range. However, a raid of 5 aircraft attack Saufley without success, for now the Japanese aircrew are suffering from the fatigue of repeated missions. This same day a Chichijima-based Type 1 bomber locates the still undamaged destroyer Strong. Significantly, this ship is on a diverging track from the remnants of the main force: whilst it appears that the two damaged destroyers will take their chances in the big gap between Brown Island and Minamitori Shima, Strong seems now to be making for refuge in the Aleutians.

Now it is the turn of Ugaki Matome’s Dai-yon Kido Butai to lend a hand. Despatched from their Karafuto anchorage immediately the American striking group was detected on 5 June, Ugaki’s three light carriers have been hurrying south to the attack, and although Strong evades all air searches on 9 June, the Japanese are confident they can effect an interception based upon her observed rate of advance. To assist in this Cdr Koizumi’s Kinagawa Maru, with eight Type 0 Reconnaissance Seaplanes embarked, heads north at maximum speed from south of Minamitori Shima to a search position 350 miles NE of that island.

The Japanese calculations are in error! Destroyer Strong has altered again to an ESE heading, and one of Koizumi’s aircraft locates her on the morning of 10 June just 60 miles west of his ship and on a converging course! But Dai-yon Kido Butai is now within strike range, and a frantic exchange of signals leads to the urgent launch of two waves, each composed of 11 torpedo armed Tenzan (how the Japanese would have relished such a real-life capability!) The SuiTei that spotted Strong has remained in contact and the Japanese strike groups are homed inexorably upon the US ship. The first wave’s strike suffices: Strong is hit by three torpedoes and sinks immediately. When the second wave arrives all that remains is a knot of survivors clinging to a pair of rafts, surrounded by debris bobbing sluggishly on swells heavily fouled by fuel oil from the destroyer’s shattered bunkers.

Meanwhile, Maher’s San Juan has been limping slowly eastwards, weathering further air attacks each day. On 8 June she is attacked by a lone Shinzan, on the 9th by a further three – in both cases the Japanese bombers miss, observing on the second occasion that the cruiser’s fires have now been extinguished. But her luck cannot hold. On 10 June San Juan receives a further mass attack by 37 refreshed Rikkos operating from Chichijima. Almost immediately she is struck by two torpedoes. It is more than enough; the majority of the bombers circle with weapons still within their bomb bays as the cruiser leans tiredly onto her beam ends and slips beneath the surface.

So far, the Japanese bombers have been unable to administer the coup-de-grace to destroyers Radford and Saufley, but the two surviving US ships are still far from refuge. On 9 June Saufley again comes under attack from Saipan’s Shinzan bombers, who succeed in scoring a single hit upon her, though apparently with little effect, as later events are to demonstrate.

By 10 June the Saipan bombers’ bolt is shot. Still on an ESE course, the surviving US destroyers remain free from attack this day, but they are unable to evade the Japanese search effort. One of the big flying boats, a 2-shiki Taitei operating from Minamitori Shima, finds them in the forenoon watch and spends several hours orbiting just outside the range of the small formation’s guns as it ploughs eastward under leaden skies. On the following day the pattern is repeated, with the sole difference that this time it is one of Minamitori Shima’s SuiTei that first makes contact.

The Japanese note the US ships’ steady course and rate of advance, and direct their search effort accordingly. On 12 June the destroyers are again located without difficulty, but now the Japanese observe with interest that they have parted company, with Saufley drawing away from wounded sister Radford. Surprisingly it seems that both vessels are making directly for Wake Island – it is possible they have news of Strong’s demise at the hands of Ugaki’s carrier aircraft and hope their more southerly course will take them clear of Japanese clutches.

It is not to be. Wake Island’s facilities have been improved, and in anticipation of the fleeing ships’ arrival the Japanese have flown in a search contingent from the Bihoro Ku and the full strength of the Chitose Ku’s 1st detachment, all equipped with torpedo-carrying land attack aircraft. The bombers do not launch until 13 June, by which time the US destroyers are within the 200 miles ring. Saufley, apparently little damaged, has sprinted past Wake in the darkness and is found more than 150 miles east of the island. Eleven Rikkos go in to the attack on her, securing four torpedo hits; more than enough to ensure her destruction. Radford is luckier: although she is moving more slowly the six aircraft despatched against her make only one successful drop, but this inflicts additional damage sufficient to ensure her loss. One day later and she has made it past Wake, successfully evading a picket line of surface and submarine units, but on 14 June the Rikkos return. This time there are twenty-four of them, an exercise in overkill, for the damaged destroyer is already in no state to evade their attacks, and, as with San Juan, the majority find they are left with no target as four Type 91’s from the early arrivals find their mark.

And so, seven days after the US force was initially seen to approach the gap between the Northern Marianas and the Kazan-rettô, every one of its seven detected ships now lies on the floor of the Pacific, for a gain of just three Japanese strike aircraft and their crews. At Combined Fleet’s post-mortem the staff shake their head in puzzlement. What did the Americans hope to achieve? Was this a raid intended to spread confusion and alarm on the Empire’s trade routes? With no more than a dozen strike aircraft, surely not. A probe, perhaps, to examine the efficacy of the Japanese air search net – if so it seems to have been a test passed with distinction.

“It is as if the Americans considered themselves under an obligation to seek out their own death, in the way of the warrior,” reflects Cpt Watanabe Yasuji. “But that is our way, rather than the way of the gaijin.”

“The time may yet come when our own ships must face such fearful odds,” responds a sombre Yamamoto. “But mark this: the Americans sought to penetrate a gap in our defences no wider than six hundred miles. From Midway to the Aleutians the gap is greater than fourteen hundred miles. You could readily slip the whole of the Imperial Navy through such a gulf and not a single American would know. And beyond would lie exposed the entire western seaboard of the United States. Geography does not always work against us.”




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(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 282
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/2/2010 2:36:13 PM   
Local Yokel


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Review of Japan’s Position - June 1943

With the end of June 1943 now drawing near in our game, here is a review of the current state of the Great East Asian War from Japan’s perspective.

Economically, Japan is probably in as good a condition as could be hoped. About 2.9M units of oil are stockpiled within the home islands, sufficient to cover industry’s requirements for a full year without additional imports. Accumulated supplies exceed 4.2M units – if anything, more needs to be done to move quantities of these outwards from their point of production to likely points of consumption, but all bases that function as major distribution points for supply carry more than enough stock to meet current demand, with more in transit. Raw materials for industry are still something of a problem, as there seem never to be enough of these at the industrial heart of the Empire to provide a reach exceeding 30 – 40 days, but this is simply because the home economy is operating at a rate that consumes such materials as fast as they are generated elsewhere in the Empire.

In the early part of June numerous ground reinforcement units were raised. This had the effect of reducing armament stockpiles from a high point of 52,600 units on 1 June to a low point of 34,770 units on 24 June. Immediately before the reinforcements’ arrival the armaments factories were mostly standing idle, with production emphasis being placed upon manufacture of Type 3 tanks to fill the inventories of the 2nd and 3rd Tank Divisions. The 1st Tank Division in Manchukuo received its Type 3’s some time ago, and the 3rd Tank Division, having been released from China and now in transit to the south, is due to receive its complement of the new AFV’s upon arrival at its destination. Given a TOE of 177 per tank division of these vehicles, the presence in the pool of 349 of them means that there is an ample stock available for this refit. With vehicle production requirements covered, it has been possible to stand their production down and reinstate that of the armaments factories to make good the depletion of stockpiles that has resulted from the June reinforcements.

Aircraft production seems similarly healthy, with a pool of more than 10,000 machines available to make good losses. If anything, there has been significant over-production of some of the older aircraft in anticipation of losses that never took place. The switch of aero engine factories to cover the new power plant designs continues smoothly, with about 1260 Nissan/Adv Mitsubishi engines stockpiled despite the output of more than 500 J2M Raiden interceptors.

Japan’s merchant marine has so far suffered the loss of just 24 freighters to hostilities. Policy has been to build only high capacity or fast merchantmen, and a number of these have been salted away against the evil day when an Allied submarine campaign begins to bite. However, the Allies have still to sink their first tramp steamer laden with materials for Honshu’s factories.

Aside from two light cruisers lost largely through careless execution of Centrifugal operations, the navy has yet to lose a major warship, and although it has lost 11 destroyers to date, their place has been taken by new construction of more capable vessels.

But the militarists of Nippon can be under no illusions. There will be no further major expansion of her industrial base, and her leaders’ task now is to protect and conserve her assets as best they may against the coming threat of strategic air attack. For as long as they feasibly can they will do so by denying their enemies the airfield sites from which such an attack can be mounted. They have already sought to lay the groundwork for this defensive effort by avoiding excessive acquisitions of conquered territory. They have aimed instead to establish a perimeter that mitigates a shortfall in sufficient forces for its defence that is all too obvious. In practice, this has meant occupation of the Irrawaddy Basin in the west, Australia’s Northern Territory in the south, and Attu Island in the north. By holding these positions they aim to deny their enemies bases from which long range bombers can hit Palembang from the west, Borneo and Java from Australia, or Hokkaido from the north.

In the Pacific, the Japanese preference had been to fight a delaying action up the Solomon chain, failing which they would sell dearly their holdings in the Mandates. However, a defence of the Marshalls looks increasingly unattractive, given the likely piecemeal loss of the defending units involved. Consequently, the revised Japanese plan is to fight hard on the eastern fringe of the Carolines for long enough to effect safe withdrawal of their assets further south. If the Americans now choose to come through the Mandates, the Japanese will seek to delay such an advance by fostering a belief that a series of contested atoll assaults must be made for which the attackers must take time to prepare. In a few cases such prepared assaults will, in fact, still be necessary. The defenders will seize any chance they can to inflict worthwhile material losses on their opponents as any such advance proceeds, but commitment to a full blooded counter-attack may only take place at a point further west unless the opportunity to inflict a major reverse unexpectedly presents itself.

The Japanese have had a full year in which to ready the defences of their outer perimeter. As a consequence, the majority of their outer bases have now been fortified to the maximum extent required. Now, the Japanese engineering contingents are falling back towards the interior of the Empire in order to ready the defences in these areas too, with enhancements to the Philippine bases now gathering pace.

The Allied comeback by means of amphibious operations has proved a costly exercise. A premature grab for atolls in the Gilberts in 1942 was repulsed with little difficulty. The recapture of the New Hebrides was achieved with heavy losses of merchant ships. The same was true of 1943 Allied operations in the Bay of Bengal, where an absence of concentration permitted Japan to hold her ground and ultimately destroy two of the three invading forces. The third such force remains trapped in the Andamans and is an obvious candidate for elimination. This was largely due to a significant reduction in RN carrier strength as a result of casualties to overstretched naval forces covering the three separate landings, and Japan’s consequent ability to retain sea control within a large part of the Bay. In turn, this has permitted the landing of substantial reinforcements at Port Blair as a preliminary to reduction of the stranded Allied assault forces, including the elite Australian 7th Division.

_____________________________




(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 283
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/2/2010 2:40:24 PM   
Local Yokel


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Burma

Here, however, the first complication in the Japanese plans intrudes. The reinforcements landed at Port Blair are short of support, and they need the presence of a corps level HQ for efficient direction of operations to destroy the invaders. Elements of 28th Army HQ have been flown in to the island, but the main body of this formation is still entangled in the defence of Mandalay, awaiting relief by 15th Army before it can be released for duty in the Andamans. This will delay finishing the job in the Andamans, and that gives time for a crisis to develop in Burma which could otherwise be met by the forces at Port Blair.

Faced with a choice of maintaining a diminishing stranglehold on supplies to China over the Ledo Road (prematurely constructed!) or avoidance of encirclement at Myitkyina, the Japanese opted for the latter. The Myitkyina garrison fell back on Mandalay unmolested, leisurely followed by the British and Indian forces that had threatened to pocket them by a crossing of the Chindwin immediately north of Mandalay. Here the Allied forces have gathered their strength for a confrontation with the Japanese, launching their first assault upon the defences on 22 June 1943. At a cost of 6000 casualties the level of those defences was reduced to 8, giving the Japanese hope that in the medium term their position here can be held, provided they are able to rotate and refit in Rangoon units damaged in the course of defensive operations:

06/22/43
Ground combat at Mandalay
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 78934 troops, 602 guns, 524 vehicles, Assault Value = 1748
Defending force 91740 troops, 504 guns, 177 vehicles, Assault Value = 1900
Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 8
Allied max assault: 1742 - adjusted assault: 802
Japanese max defense: 1863 - adjusted defense: 5055
Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 8)
Japanese ground losses:
512 casualties reported
Guns lost 25
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
6001 casualties reported
Guns lost 124
Vehicles lost 9


But there is a developing crisis on the left flank of the Japanese position in Burma in the shape of an advance upon Akyab through the Arakan. To meet this the Japanese have but a single division – 56th – entrenched at Akyab. Fortifications are at level 6, but realistically the Japanese prospects for hanging on here look very slim unless the Allies unexpectedly fail to commit sufficient forces to accomplish the task. And with Akyab gone, not only is Southern Burma exposed to escorted aerial attack, but the Japanese position at Mandalay is effectively rendered untenable due to the threat to its communications along the line Rangoon-Magwe. In practice this seems likely to compel abandonment of a Japanese position west of the Salween by the end of 1943, and a satisfactory plan permitting retention of Japanese holdings north of Rangoon has yet to be found.




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(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 284
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/2/2010 2:45:17 PM   
Local Yokel


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North Australia

In North Australia the Japanese position appears to be more secure. Here the Allies have to take their chances in further amphibious operations against the Lesser Sundas or Australia’s NW coast, or they have to accept a single line of overland advance along the road leading north to Darwin from Alice Springs. So far they have opted only for an overland advance, and now find themselves beating against a fully fortified base at Daly Waters, with equally strong fortifications further north at Katherine and Darwin to be overcome thereafter. Here the Allies have committed the Americal Division and 2nd Australian Infantry Division, a militia formation, to the attack proper upon the base, whilst a number of militia brigades and minor units hold flank positions presumably intended to frustrate a repeat of the successful Japanese sally from their fortress in December 1942. Immediately south of Daly Waters SW Pacific HQ has come forward to support and sustain the attack, indicating that this is regarded by the Allies as a major thrust line. However, with three full divisions deployed in rear of Daly Waters, the Japanese at present perceive no insurmountable threat to their positions in Australia.




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(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 285
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/2/2010 2:50:28 PM   
Local Yokel


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China

China has proved to be an interesting theatre of operations. The ultimate Japanese objective is similar to that allotted to the original Ichi-go: to deny the Allies airfields in the south/east of China from which effective air attacks can be launched either against the home islands or against the coastwise shipping routes in the South China Sea. Any resulting destruction of Chinese ground forces will be a welcome bonus.

Clearly the threat to Chinese forces occupying positions at Kanhsien and the approaches to Nanchang has now been recognised, as the majority of the units that had been based at Kanhsien have now moved out of the base in a NE direction, leaving a single unit numbering about 9500 men as garrison. What cannot be known (a shortcoming remedied by AE) is the current direction of travel of the marching Chinese units. Their most likely destination would seem to be Changsha, where the Japanese have just opened their offensive against the city, but another possibility is a continuation of the march to the north-east, their objective being to expel the single Japanese unit 60 miles east of Changsha, which is blocking the retreat path of the Nanchang attackers. The blocking force consists of nothing more than a modest SNLF unit, and if not reinforced it is likely to be brushed aside by the Kanhsien units, however emaciated for want of supply those units may be. A division is marching south from the Yangtse to provide such reinforcement, but its ability to intervene in sufficient time remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, mindful of their previous loss of a tank regiment that thrust prematurely across the Hwang Ho, the Japanese have with much trepidation pushed another tank regiment across the Yangtse tributary immediately to the NE of Hengchow. However, preparations for the river crossing included the massing at Hankow of the bulk of the JAAF’s air transport units. As soon as the tanks were across the river, the Mongol Cavalry Division (a surprisingly high quality unit released from the Kwantung Army) was flown en masse to the crossing point, along with some additional support from 7th Air Division and a small detachment from 2nd Mongolian Cavalry Division. This latter unit then conducted a minor probe to the NW in the direction of Kweiyang, with the intention of further interdicting Chinese supply lines to Changsha and the salient beyond.

The Japanese hope is that the river crossing and its exploitation north of Hengchow will, in combination with interdiction of Chinese supply lines further west at Liuchow, so throttle the quantity of supplies reaching Changsha and the salient as to ease the capture of Changsha and subsequent destruction of the troops pocketed as a consequence. If the Japanese can take Changsha and compel the Chinese to abandon their positions just west of Nanchang, the road from Nanchang to Changsha should be opened and the vulnerability of Japanese forces to counter-attack across the Yangtse from the Ichang area brought to an end. This would then leave substantial Japanese forces in possession of the river crossing north of Hengchow/Changsha, and in a position to thrust west towards Kweiyang. Potentially this exposes to encirclement the whole south wing of the Chinese army in its positions between Liuchow and Hengchow.

On 26 June 1943 the Japanese open the offensive against Changsha with their first attack upon the city:

Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 114997 troops, 611 guns, 12 vehicles, Assault Value = 2507
Defending force 42240 troops, 190 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1079
Japanese max assault: 2490 - adjusted assault: 2587
Allied max defense: 1141 - adjusted defense: 1658
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 9)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 8
Japanese ground losses:
2015 casualties reported
Guns lost 32
Vehicles lost 2
Allied ground losses:
954 casualties reported
Guns lost 14.





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(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 286
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/13/2010 8:51:41 PM   
Local Yokel


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Despite the best efforts of our email system to prevent us from doing so, we have at last reached the end of June 1943, so here is my usual set of end-of-month reports, beginning with the economy.

More fighters than you can shake a stick at, with the pool of Model 22 Reisen about to be swelled as they are made redundant by the Model 52 - the A6M5 - which advanced its into-production date by one month during the course of June. Would be nice to be able to do the same with the Type 4 Hayate; I live in hope.

Quite a lot of aircraft factories have production shut off, so what you see here reflects capacity rather than actual production.

Both supply and oil levels looking pretty healthy. Resources holding up OK, but I've continued to rein in heavy industry production as otherwise resources get consumed at a rate significantly faster than they are generated, notwithstanding that there now remain only 87 damaged resource centres in the Empire, compared with about 17,000 that are building.

As can be seen, the armaments pool took quite a tumble from 56K to 36K, due to the substantial number of reinforcements received during the month. Still, there were sufficient stocks in hand to ensure that all the new units arrived at full establishment.

Just 30 Toyoda/Adv Nakajima engine factories yet to repair, split between two sites, so the production lines will all be ready to go on 1st August.




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(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 287
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/13/2010 9:00:42 PM   
Local Yokel


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The Tracker view of the economy. For the time being I have all vehicle production shut off, since the pools are well-stocked, and I want to rebuild a respectable cushion of armament points. This is being done so that no newly arriving unit goes short whilst I simultaneously ensure that there is ample equipment to make good losses sustained in the field by existing units.

I think the Tracker graphical presentation well illustrates the point that unless you have done something silly it's armaments and ships that gobble by far the most HI points, with aircraft and aero engine production making only modest demands.




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Post #: 288
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/14/2010 12:07:54 AM   
Local Yokel


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Next comes shipping losses during the month.

This must be the first month of the conflict in which Japan suffers no such loss. Not one. A rather different picture for the other side, however, as the USN loses 45 ships and the other Allied powers another 9. Most of the latter resulted from a devastating carrier strike from Yamaguchi's 2KB, when a convoy of empty ships returning to Africa from Chittagong strayed too far east during their transit of the Bay of Bengal. 2KB had been covering the landing of major reinforcements in the Andamans, and it was simplicity to calculate the convoy's rate of advance and take up the optimum ambush position. One cripple, Empire Strength, survived two days before going down off Madras.

In the early part of the month Marshalls-based land attack planes accounted for a number of ships taking part in the Allied capture of Abemama, and there followed the curious foray of CVL Princeton and her task group to the point of her destruction north of Farallon de Pajaros. This battle, that at Abemama and the Bay of Bengal ambush account for virtually all the sinkings by Type 91 aerial torpedo, making it the primary ship killer of the month, but there's also a respectable number of sinkings by its 21" stablemate, the Type 95, indicating that Japanese submarines are still playing a worthwhile part in writing down Allied shipping.

I had a small patrol line in the gap between Johnston and Palmyra, and was lucky enough to fall in more than once with convoys on a direct route to Kanton Island - not much sign of evasive routing here on my opponent's part. Lt Cdr Kishigami's minelayer, I-124, happened to be lying off Kanton at the time (since it's where a number of major Allied warships are currently located) and I attempted to sow the approaches with mines just as one of the Allied convoys was due to arrive. I got a hit too, but not, as I hoped, a fat merchantman but rather insignificant prey in the shape of subchaser 645. Strangely, there's been no sign of an Allied attempt to clear these mines, so I still hold out hopes of Kishigami's field claiming another victim.

Two ships sank on 29 June: Beaverhead and Phoebe Hearst. One of them was carrying a fighter group of 24 P-38's. That was a good note on which to end the month.




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(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 289
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/14/2010 12:22:02 AM   
Local Yokel


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Now for the Intelligence Summary for the month.

Nothing particularly dramatic here. A very slight increase in ops losses - perhaps I'm gettig careless. Ground force losses substantially similar to those in May on both sides.

The most significant difference from May is the rise air losses. I lost 50 more than in the previous month; he lost an extra 200. Curiously, the ratio of air-to-air losses remained exactly the same notwithstanding the increased intensity of the air war, with the scoring rate remaining at 4 to 1 in my favour. NikMod provides a very different 'feel' to aerial warfare compared with the stock game, but I think I may be getting the hang of it.




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Post #: 290
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/14/2010 12:53:23 AM   
Local Yokel


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To amplify on the air war a bit, here is a side by side comparison of Japanese pilot stats for May and June.

From my viewpoint, the good news is that both the JAAF and JNAF have gained a point of average experience. Only for patrol plane aircrew has there been a drop in that average, easily explained by the arrival of an inexperienced new unit flying the big Type 2 flying boats. I have put them well behind the front lines where they can train up but still do useful search work.

The bad news is that the growth in experience comes at the price of over 50 pilots' loss, with 20 of these coming from the ranks of the fighter pilots. With more and better Allied machines coming forward, things are sure to get worse for Japan in this respect. Accepting that some level of pilot attrition is unavoidable, the big question for me is whether I am keeping it sufficiently low to sustain a large enough number of high quality pilots at the point of contact. Both considerations seem to me to be vital: if there are either an insufficient number of fighters aloft or their crews are of insufficient experience then the Japanese are going to get hammered. By sufficient experience I mean 75+.

Currently the JAAF is holding its own over N. Australia, largely because the Allied air forces can only operate from Tennant Creek and Alice Springs. Over Burma, I am not maintaining a fighter presence over Mandalay, the principal Allied target, because SEAC can fly sweeps against any defenders I put up from multiple bases on any day. I may hold my own against the first few such sweeps, but if the last sweep in the sequence is flown by the AVG and/or Spits then I expect to suffer disproportionate losses to my fatigued interceptors.




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Post #: 291
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/14/2010 1:10:53 AM   
Local Yokel


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To complete the month-end reports and my thoughts on the air war, I'll post a couple of tables to illustrate air losses. First I show fighter losses in descending order of loss to aerial combat. I haven't totted these up but I think they show a very favourable ratio of Japanese fighter losses to Allied, and I suspect this is currently still running at 2:1 or better in favour of Japan despite the fact that the Japanese are now almost always going up against equal or better quality aircraft. The only way I can achieve this is by picking my fights and by keeping pilot quality high.

The poor old Type 1 Hayabusa has suffered more losses than any other type, but this is very much a reflection of its extensive use for operational training of the greenhorns, with much higher accident rates than those sustained by front line units, which I nurse intensively.

Interesting to note that the vaunted F4U isn't indestructible, though I suspect that for the time being I am receiving the benefit of coming up against a single, relatively inexperienced unit of these aircraft flying from Tennant Creek.




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Post #: 292
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/14/2010 1:19:11 AM   
Local Yokel


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Finally, a table showing level bomber losses, this time in descending order of losses to all causes.

I find it salutary to take a look at this chart now and again to remind myself that the Japanese can bring down the 'heavy babies'. That's 48 Fortresses and 326 Liberator variants brought down by defending fighters, leaving aside their other sources of loss.




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Post #: 293
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/25/2010 1:02:45 PM   
Local Yokel


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Watch this space...




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Post #: 294
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/25/2010 6:10:10 PM   
1275psi

 

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Nick Mod - the corsair is nerfed a lot
You are doing well!

Long live the empire!

(in reply to Local Yokel)
Post #: 295
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: June 1943 - 6/27/2010 5:34:48 PM   
Local Yokel


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The impression I get is that Japan probably benefits more than the Allies from the reduced bloodiness in general of Nik Mod aerial combat, but his Corsairs haven't yet had an opportunity to show what they can do when employed en masse. I shall do what I can to deny him that opportunity for as long as I can.

False alarm in the Solomons so far. That 'diversionary force' was one that had been given 'retirement allowed' orders and had been overlooked, so I am told. Maybe that's so, maybe it's not, but that build-up of task forces in Espiritu Santo is a very strong signal that things are about to get lively here. I also got two 'radio transmissions detected' intelligence reports from one hex east of Espiritu within the last week or so. Useful Japanese intelligence, for a change! These and other indicators seem to point a major amphibious operation taking place in the near future, although I can only guess at the objective for the time being.

Elsewhere, 1st Australian Motor Brigade made an attempt to work its way round the west flank of the Japanese positions at Daly Waters. A regiment from 2nd Division was waiting to meet them and attacked as soon as the Australians advanced to contact. The Japanese attack, preceded by an effective raid by Darwin's Donryu, immediately sent them packing:

07/01/43
Day Air attack on 1st Australian Motor Brigade, at 34,89
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 8
Ki-49 Helen x 94
Ki-46-III Dinah x 2
No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
275 casualties reported
Guns lost 3
Aircraft Attacking:
23 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 5000 feet
...

Ground combat at 34,89
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 7399 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 166
Defending force 2659 troops, 6 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 81
Japanese max assault: 142 - adjusted assault: 152
Allied max defense: 44 - adjusted defense: 3
Japanese assault odds: 50 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Allied ground losses:
154 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!


So far, XIV Army has made no further attack against Mandalay's defences, and despite some damage done by continuing air raids against Japanese installations there, the Allies' efforts are being 'out-engineered' by the mass of engineering units who are frantically attempting to rebuild the defences. 'Mass', of course, is relative: for the Japanese, a large number of engineers are being used - the Allies would probably regard them as the merest bauble.

Still, leaving aside that worrying advance in the Arakan, the Japanese position looks OK for the moment. I may well take a different view of things when I find out where those 4 US Marine Divisions he keeps banging on about have decided to make a nuisance of themselves.

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Post #: 296
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: July 1943 - 7/14/2010 11:45:28 AM   
Local Yokel


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Changsha taken – China, July 1943

The 13th Japanese Army, under command of Lt Gen. Saito, had hoped to reduce the defences of Changsha at its leisure, but Chinese counter-moves made sure that it enjoyed no such luxury.

The Japanese, having launched a minor reconnaissance probe westwards towards Kweiyang (see post # 286), elected to withdraw the troops making it from their exposed position and to consolidate Japan’s river bridgehead north of Hengchow. The wisdom of this move seemed to be confirmed by the approach march of a force that included the 40th and 89th Chinese Corps, moving along the same road as that recently traversed by the Japanese reconnaissance unit. The Chinese were apparently intent upon contesting the Japanese bridgehead, and they appeared to have a good chance of doing so successfully.

Meanwhile, from south of Changsha came signs of a Chinese withdrawal from Kanhsien, with only a single unit remaining in place to garrison the town. The destination of the withdrawing Chinese forces was unclear, but their appearance in Changsha as reinforcements for that city’s garrison threatened either to deny the Japanese its capture or the imposition of unacceptable casualties as the price of its taking. Further, Chinese retention of Changsha would prevent rapid reinforcement of the Japanese bridgehead across the river that was now urgently needed in order to hold off the Chinese relief columns approaching from the west.

Reduction of Changsha’s defences had been proceeding more quickly than had been anticipated, possibly due to efficient forward movement of supplies from Hankow along the Peiping-Canton railway. By 10 July 1943 a series of set-piece attacks had carried the Japanese besiegers two-thirds of the way through the city’s defences:

06/26/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 114997 troops, 611 guns, 12 vehicles, Assault Value = 2507
Defending force 42240 troops, 190 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1079
Japanese max assault: 2490 - adjusted assault: 2587
Allied max defense: 1141 - adjusted defense: 1658
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 9)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 8
Japanese ground losses:
2015 casualties reported
Guns lost 32
Vehicles lost 2
Allied ground losses:
954 casualties reported
Guns lost 14

06/29/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 113165 troops, 590 guns, 11 vehicles, Assault Value = 2887
Defending force 40099 troops, 173 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1050
Japanese max assault: 2387 - adjusted assault: 1652
Allied max defense: 1018 - adjusted defense: 743
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 8)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 7
Japanese ground losses:
2011 casualties reported
Guns lost 17
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
1572 casualties reported
Guns lost 16

07/01/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 132886 troops, 672 guns, 9 vehicles, Assault Value = 2776
Defending force 37518 troops, 153 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1021
Japanese max assault: 2694 - adjusted assault: 5212
Allied max defense: 993 - adjusted defense: 946
Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 7)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 6
Japanese ground losses:
2475 casualties reported
Guns lost 27
Vehicles lost 3
Allied ground losses:
1617 casualties reported
Guns lost 16

07/03/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 130079 troops, 636 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 2650
Defending force 34996 troops, 127 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 969
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 5
Japanese max assault: 2603 - adjusted assault: 2620
Allied max defense: 773 - adjusted defense: 830
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 5)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 5
Japanese ground losses:
1581 casualties reported
Guns lost 13
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
1286 casualties reported
Guns lost 29

07/06/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 128320 troops, 622 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 2563
Defending force 33332 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 915
Japanese max assault: 2548 - adjusted assault: 2328
Allied max defense: 718 - adjusted defense: 538
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 5)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 4
Japanese ground losses:
1465 casualties reported
Guns lost 17
Allied ground losses:
1181 casualties reported
Guns lost 10

07/08/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 126912 troops, 610 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 2498
Defending force 31745 troops, 78 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 874
Japanese max assault: 2487 - adjusted assault: 4823
Allied max defense: 594 - adjusted defense: 994
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 4)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 3
Japanese ground losses:
1545 casualties reported
Guns lost 6
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
1202 casualties reported
Guns lost 21


Now, however, the relief forces approaching from the south and west compelled Saito to act with greater urgency, and for 10 July he ordered 13th Army to make a supreme effort to wrest the city from the Chinese, regardless of cost.

Every Japanese bomber within range of Changsha was supposed to have received orders for a maximum close support effort intended to aid their comrades on the ground, yet for reasons unknown not a single aircraft launched an attack upon the city’s defenders. Undaunted, the ground troops’ attack went in, and despite substantial losses the élan of their assault was sufficient to compel the defenders’ retirement across the river to Hengchow, notwithstanding the arrival in Changsha of the first units in the relief column from Kanhsien:

07/10/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 125832 troops, 617 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 2430
Defending force 45196 troops, 87 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1144
Japanese max assault: 4832 - adjusted assault: 5941
Allied max defense: 874 - adjusted defense: 457
Japanese assault odds: 13 to 1 (fort level 3)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Changsha base !!!
Allied aircraft
no flights
Allied aircraft losses
I-16c: 2 destroyed
Japanese ground losses:
2252 casualties reported
Guns lost 30
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
2258 casualties reported
Guns lost 28


Thus, albeit at greater cost then they would have wished, the Japanese successfully concluded their operations against Changsha. They had done so quickly enough to prevent the arrival of sufficient Chinese reinforcements to hold the city. Now a Chinese force of about 100,000 men stood isolated at the approaches to Nanchang, and the race was on to bring sufficient troops across the river to hold the Japanese bridgehead against the Chinese counter-attack and open the way west towards Kweiyang.




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Post #: 297
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: July 1943 - 7/14/2010 11:54:42 AM   
Local Yokel


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Changsha Analysis

The Japanese employed six infantry divisions and one mixed brigade to take Changsha, and as expected they had to overcome level 9 fortifications in order to do so. To show the impact of siege upon the attacking units, here is a graphic that sets out disruption, fatigue, AV and TOE values for the units involved as the siege progressed. It also shows the participants’ experience gains and morale levels, though the latter remained largely unaltered (20th Mixed’s morale is a cause for some concern!). I have not shown the effect of successive deliberate attacks upon unit supply levels; suffice it to say that all units’ supplies were being replenished fast enough to permit deliberate attacks at intervals of two or three days with all units carrying their minimum supply requirement – i.e. only one day’s recuperation was normally required before the army was adequately re-supplied to renew the attack, and to do so with an acceptably low level of disruption.

Unfortunately values for turn 578 seem to have gone walkabout; for some reason they didn’t get saved in the Tracker database, possibly as a result of a power loss – sorry about that.

Originally I would have preferred to continue a series of deliberate attacks against the city with a view to minimising casualties. However I suspect that the last shock attack that destroyed the remaining three levels of fortification probably caused Japanese losses no greater than those that would have been sustained if deliberate attacks had continued. Note that 36th and 39th Divisions appear to have suffered significantly heavier losses in the final assault than other formations, whilst 26th Division suffered barely a scratch. This probably reflects the fact that the two divisions suffering the heaviest casualties were not 100% prepared for the attack (36th at 89% prep. and 39th at 87%). 59th Division was 87% prepared, but all the remaining infantry units were at 100% preparation.

Consistent with my policy of treating China as a training ground for the Japanese Army, all the units involved in this operation now possess high experience levels, all bar 26th Division being in the high 80’s or better in this respect.

It’s apparent that the Chinese attempt to reinforce the Changsha defences was partially successful. On 8 July the defenders numbered 31,745 troops, but by 10 July their numbers had risen to 45,196. Clearly the additional forces included 58th Chinese Corps (showing an AV? Value of 495 as the final battle progressed), but I suspect that an HQ formation had also reached Changsha by 10 July, since a total of four HQ’s was forced to retreat to Hengchow. Given a final odds ratio of 13:1 in favour of the Japanese, I would guess that those units that made it into Changsha before the city’s fall did so in a highly debilitated state – no great surprise, as the units coming up from Kanhsien must have been pretty much out of supply for the last month or more.

I now have an operational choice to make: do I immediately advance westwards towards Kweiyang, thereby threatening the isolation of all the Chinese forces to the south of that city, or do I first reduce the Chinese force standing to the west of Nanchang? I suspect that an advance towards Kweiyang might well have the desired effect of prompting a retreat from Hengchow, Kweilin and Liuchow – the threat of encirclement would be pretty obvious. However, such an advance would leave my point units at the end of a long line of communication exposed to counter-attacks from across the Yangtse, especially to the south of Ichang, where there are five Chinese units on the river line. I think it would probably be preferable to clear the Nanchang-Changsha road in order to secure my communications, since any Chinese crossing of the Yangtse, however costly to the attackers, would effectively isolate Changsha and any Japanese forces to its west. It’s long been my intention to compel a Chinese retreat from Liuchow by manoeuvre rather than frontal assault, and the potential for achieving this by means of an advance towards Kweiyang will still be there, even if I decide that I must first clear my LoC by eliminating the Chinese forces that face Nanchang. However, I have yet to make a final decision on which course to follow.




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< Message edited by Local Yokel -- 7/14/2010 2:47:09 PM >


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Post #: 298
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: July 1943 - 7/14/2010 12:33:21 PM   
1275psi

 

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WOW -now that is attention to detail!

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Post #: 299
RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: July 1943 - 7/14/2010 3:45:00 PM   
Local Yokel


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From: Somerset, U.K.
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Well, it probably confirms that there's a strong streak of the obsessive-compulsive in me

But I do go to some lengths to conserve my pixel-warriors.

One thing that sets this game apart from many wargames is the emphasis it places on nurturing and growing your forces' capabilities rather than on the destructive aspects of warfare alone. My enjoyment of 'growing' activities probably accounts in part for my preference for playing Japan. With it, however, comes a risk that I shall not be sufficiently ruthless in the employment of my forces when I need to be in order to secure a crushing victory. At Changsha, I agonised quite a bit about the damage my units would suffer as a result of committing them all to a shock attack.

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Post #: 300
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