vettim89
Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007 From: Toledo, Ohio Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Alfred quote:
ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 Japan had numerous options in, say, 1930. Just because the British and French and Dutch empires were empires doesn't mean they weren't interested in peaceful trade for raw materials. Do you have any evidence that, if China had remained un-invaded, Japan would have been denied strategic resources and at least some access to finished goods markets? Of course they had options. Or, said another way, the history of Japan for the past 65 peaceful, incredibly productive years has been a mirage? It isn't quite so simple. Post Bretton Wood and GATT, the world has seen a great increase in world trade. Notwithstanding the failure of the Doha negotiations, the impediments to world trade today are nothing compared to the situation in the 1930s. The barriers to world trade which existed in the 1930s severely impacted upon the economies of countries whose domestic market was too small to absorb their gross output. Another point to bear in mind is the structural composition of 1930s economies. Even the most advanced economies had only a small service sector, instead being heavily reliant on manufacturing, which output was predominantly directed to the domestic market. We should not assume that the post 1945 conditions which have allowed the Japanese economy to grow were also available prior to the war. Alfred Agreed, Alfred. While these types of discussions are fascinating, they really are just speculation. It is very interesting to hear various forum members opinions and see so many of our cohorts are extremely well informed on a variety of matters. Once the Konoe cabinet dissolved, the die was cast. Yet Konoe was still vigorously pursueing options into September when he met secretely with Ambassador Grew to once again try to set up a face-to-face meeting with FDR. While unlikely to have been successful, FDR and Hull perhaps did miss an opportunity here. They felt that an agreement should be negotiated before such a meeting should occur with only the final details being hammered out at the actual meeting. What they failed to grasp was that Konoe was a man with the firm grip of the IJA resting on his shoulder. Perhaps the ONLY way Kanoe could negotiate a treaty that would have averted war would be to conduct those negotiations outside Japan. While it is unlikely that the IJA would have accepted any agreement with substantive concesssions by Japan, it is an interesting premise to consider what would have happened if Kanoe would have emerged with an agreement from an October 1941 meeting with Hull/FDR in Hawaii or Alaska. Most, including Konoe himself, expected the Prime Minister would have been assasinated on his return. The wild card would be Hirohito who viewed himself as a world statesman and at least superficially was trying to avoid war. What if Hirohito ordered the Army to accept the agreement? As I said above, fascinating stuff How about this, the Army does indeed kill Kanoe on his return. FDR takes this not only as a personal afront that a man he negotiated with in good faith was assasinated, but also as an unequivacable sign that war with Japan was coming and coming soon. All US forces in the Pacific are put on war footing. The Japanese realize that hitting PH by surprise is unlikely. The war starts in December with the invasions of the PI and Malaya. There, now I got us a mod out of this edit: cleaned up the prose a bit
< Message edited by vettim89 -- 7/28/2010 4:31:41 PM >
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"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry
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