RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 5:37:30 AM

vettim89

Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
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No. LI only requires resources and outputs supply. I think its 15 RES in for 1 supply out. Just doing that off the top of my head

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Post #: 301

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 9:04:32 AM

Smeulders

Posts: 1879
Joined: 8/9/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'm no production expert, as I've never played the Japanese, but isn't supply production dependant on fuel? Through the LI mechanism? I looked in Tracker, and India has only two very small Oil sources at Ledo and Rawlipindi (sp?), and refineries at each. Production depends on fuel from Abadan and Aden, but really Abadan.

Actually, fuel is needed for supply production with HI. LI can run just fine without fuel. I'm not quite sure as to how much supply is made trough HI and how big the fuel reserves are, so maybe that could lower supply production in India, good point.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
The trip from off-map to Karachi is short, yes, but that works both ways. Q only has to interdict a small, known lane. Subs work for that. CR has few ASW assets now, and those he has are at best ASW 8. Most are less. And he won't have a ton of air ASW help from Karachi.

A ton of air ASW isn't needed, one or two good squadrons will go a long way in keeping all subs spotted. RN DD are deadly at hunting subs as well, or maybe it's just in my game.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Then the fuel has to be moved, right? Does LI production fuel flow by iteself, or does it have to be carted to the big industry centers, like Bombay? If the latter, more sea time, more exposure. Note too that all of the fuel he can haul in has to self-fund any short-legged xAKs or tankers getting back to Abadan, as well as the RN fleet, wherever he stashes it, plus ASW ops.

Fuel will move on it's own, so there isn't really any need for coastal vessels. RN fleet can be stashed either in Karachi, though that is dangerous if KB decides to raid, or off-map, right at the fuel sources, though that does cut down on the ability to react quickly. It's not an ideal situation, but as you know when the convoys will run, and so when the protection of a surface fleet is needed, it is enough.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Third, yes, you can run already-made supplies into India, but from where? Aden makes 500/day. Abadan has some. The CD convoys bring a bit, but mostly to CT. Aden isn't open to the Med for a year more. He can try to run the blockade from CT, but again, LOTS of fuel if he goes extremely north, and he has to run the sub gauntlet. He'll lose ships. He says he's wanting to save a lot of hulls for the 1943-44 "secret push", but he may lose a lot now.

Yep, no source of supplies, but I'm not sure if it's needed anyway.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Fourth, I'm no hex-counter, but Betties can reach pretty far up there if he needs to distribute fuel and supplies by sea quickly. And Q can also stash a few CVLs at Ceylon to raid with.

Mini-KB is a danger, no contest, the question is, will he want them chained to Ceylon, or near KB to give him the edge in a CV battle when needed ?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Fifth, I think Q WANTS him to try to use the RN to make a stand. The RN ships in theater are mostly old buckets, except the carriers. CR won't have decent LBA help for months. Q might seek a decisive meeting action with the KB before he makes his next big move on land. I would. Take away the RN, stock Colombo up with big, modern IJN CAs, and Q has a six month window, at least, to run rampant through merchant operations.

Again, no contest, but this depends on KB decimating the RN. If CR declines battle, there isn't a problem. KB can't hang around forever to get this decisive battle in.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Sixth, the shipyard issue is, as you agree, very important. One bad break in a decent-sized battle, and CR is off to CT. Two months of transit time alone. Colombo can fix almost anything the Japanese have.

If you reply, don't quote this one, or we'll get into an infinite agreeing loop. RN is in a bad position, but any capital ship lost here is one not there to counter the USN later on. Sucks for the Brits, but in the overall scheme of things, it's not the worst that could happen.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Seventh, I don't think fuel is the limiting factor for Q. He can't stay for three years, but Sabang is a very short cycle time to Colombo, and it leaves the really major refinery centers for HI use. He's committed a huge portion of his land forces to this effort. He can't let them wither due to fuel to the HI to build HI stocks for the end game.

It won't limit him in launching the occasional raid, but to keep a constant presence in the IO, which might be needed to completely shut off the CT-Aden/Abadan route will cost him.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Eighth, my understanding of the CT-Perth exit chutes are that there is some variation. Q can use subs to make this complicated. I'm not saying they'll get much, but it would make CR micro-manage CT traffic, and he hates that. (CR: how do you like being talked about while you're standing there?)

True, but subs could operate from Java anyway, it's probably close to shut down Perth-CT traffic

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
DG may be too far north to find CT-Perth traffic; I'll take your word for it. But it would be instrumental in zeroing in on CT to Karachi traffic for supplies, once Aden--Abadan becomes hot. Q just needs to keep several DD-CL flying wedge TFs on a circle patrol in the IO midst, waiting to be vectored by DG search. It would be a coordination nightmare, but there's space to play with.

Diego Garcia is too far South for that, ships on the CT-Karchi route enter the map right at the top of the darker area, that's at least 50 hexes. If Ceylon is lost, I couldn't care less what happens to DG.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Final thought--if India is starving for supplies, there's absolutely NONE to spare for airlift to China. The Chinese theater is on its own for now.

I think Ceylon can be "gotten by", but it's a Stage Two cancer diagnosis. It's not a flesh wound. It changes the entire game flow for the rest of 1942 at minimum. CR is not in the driver's seat. He's in react mode for now.

Supply from India to China is pretty non-existent for a large part of 42' anyway due to a lack of transports. Later on it will be limited by the supply situation in India, but I'm not as pessimistic on that one as you are. Overall, I think that India can get by just fine without too much outside help. I would be worried what the effect would be of a concurrent land war that uses huge amounts of supplies and a blockade though. Once 43' starts rolling in and the British should go on the offensive, India would be needing more supplies though, but at this time the IJN should be moving East anyway to hold back the USN. Unless the IJN does keep mini-KB near Ceylon (and that would be very good news for the USN), the RN should be able to push trough convoys, if needed with the help of some USN CVE.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 302

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 1:01:04 PM

JohnDillworth

Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

A ton of air ASW isn't needed, one or two good squadrons will go a long way in keeping all subs spotted. RN DD are deadly at hunting subs as well, or maybe it's just in my game

Same here. you need to use the ASW plane patrols to spot, and then the ships to kill. Used in combination, they are pretty close to 100% effective. I have 4 Royal Navy DD's in an ASW task force at at Colombo. Every time a sub is spotted, I sent that TF out to patrol around target and about 80% of the time the sub is sunk in a turn or 2. They never hang around long so I can keep the sea lanes open

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Post #: 303

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 3:33:14 PM

ny59giants

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I would say, without reading Brad's AAR, that he will try to take ALL of India. That being said, the key for you will be Karachi. You need to get enough reinforcements, supplies, and fuel into that base. So how will Brad go about isolating that base??

I see three potential landing areas after the conquest of Ceylon. He will want to get that done quickly and land again before the end of March.

South:
He will follow the tried and true landing at Vizagapatnam and Cocando. This will allow for his forces to spread out and try to isolate troops. This is the 'safe' landing.

South Bombay:
Landing will be at Goa and Mangalore. They both have nice ports, but access to the interior will take time to develop.

North Bombay:
Landings at Surat and Bhaunagar. This is the 'risky' landing, but will quickly lead to the isolation of Karachi which is the key to India, IMO. Surat already has a size 2 AF and a Repair Shipyard. It will allow extended range Zero (14 hexes) to escort in Nell/Betty to attack any shipping trying to get into port (Karachi). He can easily land para and then capture Jodphur and Multan to isolate Karachi. He has almost a division worth of para. Tanks can quickly move out and reinforce Jodphur. He will trigger the India militia, but I would risk it.

Just my $.02 but I think Ceylon is just phase 1.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

Post #: 304

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 4:22:25 PM

John 3rd

Posts: 17178
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Been giving this a bit of thought while at the hotel today. Michael is dead-on with his landing evaluations. You can truly know what his fullest intentions are by his NEXT landing. I short-range hook would be Michael's Option 1. A 'swing for the fences' would be the North Bombay landing.

My gut feeling is North Bombay. Once he has Ceylon he can really choose the west coast of India without overtaxing his fuel and supply requirements. If it is North Bombay you had better have a blocking force somewhere to the east of Karachi so you can hold an advance there as you race your troops home. This is the true danger of the deep envelopment. You would have forces in eastern India and he might be only 4-6 hexes from cutting your rail-lines. It would be a race and if he won then you would be in deep kimchi.

Didn't you say that an Aussie Inf Div was either in Karachi or about to arrive? THAT would truly provide the blocking power you might need to hold up his offensive.

The other side of this coin is quite simple. There is REAL opportunity for you. The ENTIRE Combined Fleet is in use for a long period of time. This is an excellent time to attack. Go your favorite route and move through the Aleutians into the Kuriles. It doesn't have to be a major offensive but try to gain a lodgement for later exploitation.

Whatever this is worth...

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Post #: 305

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 5:51:16 PM

Cribtop

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If he IS going for all of India then this is going to be one fun AAR to read over the next few weeks!

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Post #: 306

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 9:56:59 PM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: vettim89

No. LI only requires resources and outputs supply. I think its 15 RES in for 1 supply out. Just doing that off the top of my head

I looked at the manual (imagine that), and you're right about LI. I don't now the LI posture in India. I should, as I own them in my game. I just dump about 25% of the Abadan tankers into KArachi, and I always seem to have supplies at Bombay and elsewhere. I really should get up to speed on production.

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The Moose

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Post #: 307

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 10:03:18 PM

ny59giants

Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
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quote:

I really should get up to speed on production.

AE Tracker is your friend.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 308

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 10:21:06 PM

Bullwinkle58

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Joined: 2/24/2009
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I'll reply, but the quoting real estate is growing huge. I think we have some agreement in some areas, lack of knowledge on my part in others, but really (maybe) a fundamental disagreement on the macro strategic situaiton.

The biggest hanging question for me is: Why did Q do Ceylon at all?

If he stops there, it's a PITA to CR, but not decisive. India grows stronger over time with organic resources, and CR can (again, maybe) sneak/blockade run into Karachi from the Mid-East. I'm not as sanguine as you that DD-size ASW would be allowed to interdict the lane without Q seeking to remove them, but it's an open question. CR has almost no anti-surface LBA right now that can hurt a big CA-led force sent up to sink the ASW effort and make Q's subs into blockaders.

But I don't think Q is about doing a Ceylon just to be a pest. His other AAR shows that he brings it, or he doesn't come. He has to have some kind of take-India-out strategy. How he does that I don't know. I'd start with a strong blocking force on the main RR line east of Madras to isolate Chittigong, Cox's B, and Akyab, but who knows. The rail and road network is extensive enough that Q can't shut down logistics completely, but he can sever the easy link along the coast. Then I'd land in force directly north of Ceylon and drive on Bombay. Loss of Bombay would really hurt the Indian industrial core, and put Karachi under the gun. A lot of CR's retreated-from-Burma forces would be out of that fight, and several weeks away from redeployment from the Chittigong sector, especially if they had to go to Strat mode and take the long route around to the northwest. If they leave Chittagong to help, Q's strategic mobility, due to the RN's leaving town, gives him options to invade north of Burma very cheaply and further disrupt transportation networks south of Dehli.

Most of my musings on supplies assume that Q will seek to run down CR's stocks through combat and forcing air operations. Q also should be fine in the short run after he takes Colombo. In my game in late-April 1942 I have close to a million fuel and 650k supplies at Colombo.

Does Q have enough LCUs in theater to do all these moves? Not yet. Maybe never. But I think he has to have a Phase 2, 3, and 4 already in mind.

Ceylon to me is also a big psychological factor for CR. It's my huge airbase/supply dump in the midst of the action. Aden's door to the world is closed. Without Ceylon at all, I'd feel like I was on the edge of a cliff with nowhere to retreat to. The margin for error would be pretty thin, and no help available from the rest of the map without lots of waiting and risk from naval reaction. Everybody assumes the KB is a jewel that must be cradled for later use. I ask, why? If Q intends to win the war here and now, he might use it as the decisive tool it is in 1942.

On subs in Java, I agree. I've gotten used to the AI wasting (IMO) much of its sub power endlessly trying to interdict the WC, Yukon coast, and areas north of the Aleutians. Far better to put half your I-boats out of Batavia and make the CT--Perth run expensive. If I ever play the Japanese I'll do that right after I get Batavia.

I guess we'll know more this coming week.

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Post #: 309

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 10:24:12 PM

Bullwinkle58

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Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

If he IS going for all of India then this is going to be one fun AAR to read over the next few weeks!

+1

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Post #: 310

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/5/2010 10:25:59 PM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

quote:

I really should get up to speed on production.

AE Tracker is your friend.

Yeah, but it's like grad school. I'm in preschool on the basic formulae and mechanisms. I never did production in WITP, and now they've added LI.

I'm pretty sure my #3 GC will be as the Japanese, so I'll get to it. But haven't yet.

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Post #: 311

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 1:04:16 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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Wow, lots of insight since I last posted. Here are my thoughts.

Ceylon by itself really isn't a big blow to the Allies and it represents a potential white elephant for Japan. It's hard to protect without the KB and you don't want the KB tethered to that corner of the map indefinately.

So I'll assume that Brad has bigger things in mind, which is most likely India proper. I don't think he'll make this move until he rolls up Ceylon, which ought to take at least three weeks. By then, the Allies receive another Indian division at Madras and a UK division at Aden. If Brad posts the KB in near Karachi, he can stop me from bringing in the Brits, but that' an isolated post and I doubt he does that before taking Colombo.

At present, my mobile defense force in India is an Australian division. This unit is prepped for and stationed at Calcutta, but a week ago I set it to "strategic" so that it can move if necessary.

The current defensive AV in India is something like this: Chittagong: 600 AV; Calcutta: 1000 AV; Madras: 600 AV; Bangalore: 150 AV; and the following cities have AVs ranging from 75 to 100: Bombay, Karachi, Viz, Cuttack, Delhi, Diamond Harbor, Cox'z Bazaar, Akyab, Imphal, Kohima, Ledo, and some of the interior cities like Lahore. Alot of these are subprime troops, but it's alot of firepower and any enemy landing is going to have to contend with threats to its flank as it spreads out.

Plus, don't the Allies get reinforcements at Aden or Capetown if the Japanese invade the southern area of India?

The sub threat to Karachi is manageable for two reasons: RN ASW is good, and escorts in transport and supply convoys really cut down on successful attacks. Netties or the KB are necessary to shut down commerce.

Brad can't survive by committing just a Mini-KB. The Allies already have five American carriers, and RN CV, and an RN CVL at Capetown. I don't think he has any idea where they are, but he has to assume they could be anywhere. I don't think he'll risk a one-sided carrier battle.

As stated previously, I don't want to react in panic and take big risks in the Pacific. If I lurch too far forward the Japanese can cut off and destroy the outpost. Early on, the Allies will focus on strengthening their most advanced positions like the Aleutians, Lne Islands, Suva, and probably a land campaign in northeastern Australia to reclaim Cooktown, etc.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 312

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 5:17:52 AM

crsutton

Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Been giving this a bit of thought while at the hotel today. Michael is dead-on with his landing evaluations. You can truly know what his fullest intentions are by his NEXT landing. I short-range hook would be Michael's Option 1. A 'swing for the fences' would be the North Bombay landing.

My gut feeling is North Bombay. Once he has Ceylon he can really choose the west coast of India without overtaxing his fuel and supply requirements. If it is North Bombay you had better have a blocking force somewhere to the east of Karachi so you can hold an advance there as you race your troops home. This is the true danger of the deep envelopment. You would have forces in eastern India and he might be only 4-6 hexes from cutting your rail-lines. It would be a race and if he won then you would be in deep kimchi.

Didn't you say that an Aussie Inf Div was either in Karachi or about to arrive? THAT would truly provide the blocking power you might need to hold up his offensive.

The other side of this coin is quite simple. There is REAL opportunity for you. The ENTIRE Combined Fleet is in use for a long period of time. This is an excellent time to attack. Go your favorite route and move through the Aleutians into the Kuriles. It doesn't have to be a major offensive but try to gain a lodgement for later exploitation.

Whatever this is worth...

No, I disagree. This is a scenario #1 tactic but will not work this early in 1942 in scen#2. Some raiding perhaps but the Allies just do not have the resources. Anything you grab he will take back at his leisure.

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 5:46:53 AM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Plus, don't the Allies get reinforcements at Aden or Capetown if the Japanese invade the southern area of India?

Isn't the trigger line way up near Dehli?

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Post #: 314

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 5:12:56 PM

terje439

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Plus, don't the Allies get reinforcements at Aden or Capetown if the Japanese invade the southern area of India?

Isn't the trigger line way up near Dehli?

North (on the map, more west irl) of New Dehli is it not?

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 7:09:55 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: terje439

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Plus, don't the Allies get reinforcements at Aden or Capetown if the Japanese invade the southern area of India?

Isn't the trigger line way up near Dehli?

North (on the map, more west irl) of New Dehli is it not?

I did a manual search and found nothing. A forum search only turned up this short thread:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2278957&mpage=1&key=New%2CDehli�

which discussed a line one hex south of Dehli.

OTOH, Andy Mac, who would know, just says "Don't get too close to Dehli."

So, I don't know. Anyone else?

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Post #: 316

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 7:19:42 PM

Smeulders

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I think it's one line South of Delhi as well, you can probably find it on the AE wiki if that is still up.

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Post #: 317

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 7:33:33 PM

Smeulders

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Joined: 8/9/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'll reply, but the quoting real estate is growing huge. I think we have some agreement in some areas, lack of knowledge on my part in others, but really (maybe) a fundamental disagreement on the macro strategic situaiton.

The biggest hanging question for me is: Why did Q do Ceylon at all?

If he stops there, it's a PITA to CR, but not decisive. India grows stronger over time with organic resources, and CR can (again, maybe) sneak/blockade run into Karachi from the Mid-East. I'm not as sanguine as you that DD-size ASW would be allowed to interdict the lane without Q seeking to remove them, but it's an open question. CR has almost no anti-surface LBA right now that can hurt a big CA-led force sent up to sink the ASW effort and make Q's subs into blockaders.

But I don't think Q is about doing a Ceylon just to be a pest. His other AAR shows that he brings it, or he doesn't come. He has to have some kind of take-India-out strategy. How he does that I don't know. I'd start with a strong blocking force on the main RR line east of Madras to isolate Chittigong, Cox's B, and Akyab, but who knows. The rail and road network is extensive enough that Q can't shut down logistics completely, but he can sever the easy link along the coast. Then I'd land in force directly north of Ceylon and drive on Bombay. Loss of Bombay would really hurt the Indian industrial core, and put Karachi under the gun. A lot of CR's retreated-from-Burma forces would be out of that fight, and several weeks away from redeployment from the Chittigong sector, especially if they had to go to Strat mode and take the long route around to the northwest. If they leave Chittagong to help, Q's strategic mobility, due to the RN's leaving town, gives him options to invade north of Burma very cheaply and further disrupt transportation networks south of Dehli.

Most of my musings on supplies assume that Q will seek to run down CR's stocks through combat and forcing air operations. Q also should be fine in the short run after he takes Colombo. In my game in late-April 1942 I have close to a million fuel and 650k supplies at Colombo.

Does Q have enough LCUs in theater to do all these moves? Not yet. Maybe never. But I think he has to have a Phase 2, 3, and 4 already in mind.

Ceylon to me is also a big psychological factor for CR. It's my huge airbase/supply dump in the midst of the action. Aden's door to the world is closed. Without Ceylon at all, I'd feel like I was on the edge of a cliff with nowhere to retreat to. The margin for error would be pretty thin, and no help available from the rest of the map without lots of waiting and risk from naval reaction. Everybody assumes the KB is a jewel that must be cradled for later use. I ask, why? If Q intends to win the war here and now, he might use it as the decisive tool it is in 1942.

On subs in Java, I agree. I've gotten used to the AI wasting (IMO) much of its sub power endlessly trying to interdict the WC, Yukon coast, and areas north of the Aleutians. Far better to put half your I-boats out of Batavia and make the CT--Perth run expensive. If I ever play the Japanese I'll do that right after I get Batavia.

I guess we'll know more this coming week.

I'll agree to most of this, in my opinion, Ceylon on it's own is not much more than a nuisance, but it is a base of operations that makes a large scale operation against India on the ground feasible.

One last point, there is enough anti-shipping air for the British to fight ships without top-cover near Karachi. Either the units saved from Malaya, or you just put the Swordfish and Albacores from the RN ashore. Not the greatest of planes, but tell that to the Bismarck, or Q-ball's cruisers once they get within range without zeroes overhead. Karachi can be closed down, but that either needs an airbase within Nettie + zero range, or carriers.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 318

RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 8:13:11 PM

crsutton

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The issue with Celyon is that once taken it can be farily lightly garrisoned and held for a while. In scen #2 the Japanese airforce can hold air superiorty over Celyon until well into 1943 and the British get virtually no amphibioius shipping in the early stages of the war. Any attempt to retake it would get hammered hard by Japanese LBA or require a major commitment from resources in the South Pacific. I think a Japanese player would not mind seeing these units diverted from SoPac for a while. It is all about delaying the Allied counter thrust and the key to Celyon is a timely evacuation by Japan when it can't be held any longer (or the sacrifce of some units to delay). The Japanese player should look at it just as he would Northern OZ. Sieze, hold, delay and then bug out when it gets too hot. I don't think it provides much of a threat to India proper as India is fairly strong and Celyon does not offer much of a threat to Karachi, but a strong Japanese AF in Celyon can help keep the Allied AF in check and provide a good point for subs and raids into the Australian suppy lines. This should cause the Allied player to move slower and with more caution.

You can forget about basing ships at Celyon though. Allied heavy bombers will always get through, so any shipping there will be in danger.

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 10:05:13 PM

Nemo121

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Well, Ceylon will be a bleeding sore to the IJAAF and IJNAF. Put some subs in the ports to pick up downed pilots and sweep to your hearts content. Bring in some USAAF squadrons from CONUSA via the Atlantic etc and you'll find that it ought to be possible to turn Ceylon into a negative for the Japanese.

Also, amphibious invasions into the DEI tend to come from Oz and could be routed via Capetown. So, losing Ceylon doesn't necessitate its retaking so long as you are willing to take the Cocos Islands and northern/eastern Oz.

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/6/2010 10:27:14 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Smeulders

One last point, there is enough anti-shipping air for the British to fight ships without top-cover near Karachi. Either the units saved from Malaya, or you just put the Swordfish and Albacores from the RN ashore. Not the greatest of planes, but tell that to the Bismarck, or Q-ball's cruisers once they get within range without zeroes overhead. Karachi can be closed down, but that either needs an airbase within Nettie + zero range, or carriers.

I agree that there's a lot of anti-shipping air on the map IF it was saved and IF it can be routed to India without going by sea. I think CR has the RN carriers at CT, which is a long way/time to get their air groups ashore.

I also agree with an earlier post by you (I think) that the RN can harbor off-map in Aden or Abadan, and escape a decisive battle. They can then escort convoys to Karachi. But, ships can't be turned around in the off-map routing boxes, so a decision to hide out gives the KB free rein for a set period of time which Q ought to know from the manual or experience playing the Allies. As well, convoy duty takes lots of surface assets out of play due to the Mid-east turn-around cycle. What defense off-map giveth, it also taketh away.

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 10:55:43 AM

aprezto

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Hi Dan;

Great AAR, I am sorry to take up your time, in fact all readers, if this has been covered, but I'll admit I skimmed most of the conversation and mainly concentrated on what you had to say. So I'll only keep to this one point and you can then quietly ignore me if it has been properly discussed.

That is: reinforcements once India is invaded. I know that I received the 2nd NZ Div when NZ was invaded, of course these have to make it to India (from Aden I believe) to be useful, but if they are anything like the 2nd NZ Div, then getting them into the fight is worth considering. I'll also admit at this time, that I don't know what is involved, and where on the map this is triggered. However, that is my ultimate point. Others here will know and if you don't know all ready, it seems pertinent info to either entice him to cross it, such that you get the reinforcements with enough to defend them on their way to India, or just the later if he refuses to cross such a line unwittingly.

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 4:05:34 PM

Canoerebel

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3/11/42

Azprezto: Nobody seems quite sure of the location of India's territorial boundary that triggers reinforcements, nor where the reinforcements arrive. Delhi may be the triggering point, but I'm not sure if the line goes north or south or east or west from there. Suffice it to say: I think if Brad heads for Karachi or Bombay or Madras or points in those vicinities he will be far enough south to trigger the reinforcements. I'm sure that Brad is up on this and will plan accordingly. That means he either has to bring enough troops to squash all resistance or to impose a blockade to prevent me from bringing the news guys in.

Ceylon: The Japanese have now landed a small force at Koggala on the eastern tip. The Allies will basically defend two points: Columbu with nearly 800 AV (four forts) and Trincomalee with about 250 AV (three forts). I could have concentrated my forces, but then Brad could do the same. Since he landed a division at Trincomalee, I'd rather leave my troops there to hold that division in check as long as possible. Some RAF bombers hit Jaffa's airfield again, but were overmatched. The RAF has accomplished very little thus far.

India Proper: The Allies currently have about 4,028 AV in bases that have more than 50 AV present. In addition, there are another ten or so cities that have AVs less than 50. So, all total, I think the Allies have about 4,500 AV with which to defend India. In 20 days, 430 AV in UK units arrive in Karachi and about 250 Indian AV arrive at Madras. Here is a quick look at Allied AV in India. I've only listed cities with an AV greater than 50:

North and West India: Karachi 50; Ahmedabad 93; Bombay 201; Poona 50; Hyderabad 70; Cawnpore 79; Lucknow 96; Lahore 217; Rawalpindi 218.

South India: Madras: 510; Bangalore 296; Vizagapetum 117.

East Inida: Cuttack 119; Chittagong 575; Akyab 65; Jessore 66; Calcutta 891; Diamond Harbor 198; Cox's Bazaar 117.

Carrier Uncertainty: During the invasion of Ceylon, I was surprised that Brad split his carriers into two forces separated by the island. This leads me to believe that for some reason he doesn't believe the Allied carriers are a threat at the moment. So, he either has reason to believe they are far away or that I won't commit them. Hmmm. Also, I am sure that one of the main reasons for his move on India is to flush my carriers and bring about a decisive battle. I remain committed to not allowing that to happen.

Elsewhere: A quiet turn elsewhere on the map, although the Allies continue to work at logistics - supply and transporting troops from the West Coast to advance bases. I have at least two Marine Regiments set to arrive in the USA in the next few weeks. My first thought is to send them to Suva, but I'm also thinking about ramping up Allied garrisons in the Western Aleutians to create the appearance that the Allies may be planning an attack in NoPac to counter Brad's invasion of Ceylon.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 9/7/2010 4:07:04 PM >

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 4:50:32 PM

JohnDillworth

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If he can interdict all shipping coming from the exit chutes does it matter how many extra divisions you get if they all come into Aden?

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 5:39:18 PM

Canoerebel

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Of course not, but is he really willing to commit the KB to patrolling on the extreme fringe of the map for a protracted period? Sounds like a good way for a sea power to commit suicide.

He can't commit a Mini-KB, because he has to assume that the Allies can mass their carriers. At present, the Allied carriers can handle anything short of the full KB.

Therefore, to impose a full blockade Brad has to commit the entire KB. He might do so, but sticking the KB on the far western edge of the map for a lengthy period doesn't sound like a good idea.

Am I missing something?

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 5:50:56 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Of course not, but is he really willing to commit the KB to patrolling on the extreme fringe of the map for a protracted period? Sounds like a good way for a sea power to commit suicide.

He can't commit a Mini-KB, because he has to assume that the Allies can mass their carriers. At present, the Allied carriers can handle anything short of the full KB.

Therefore, to impose a full blockade Brad has to commit the entire KB. He might do so, but sticking the KB on the far western edge of the map for a lengthy period doesn't sound like a good idea.

Am I missing something?

Being very careful what I say, as the other AAR is highly active today.

But, I would just suggest you don't get TOO tunnel-visioned by carrier issues. There are other ways to shut down Aden than with the KB. The RAF is terrible at anti-shipping at this point in the war. You could try to get some USA assets into Karachi, but much time and risk coming from CT. Him running surface action groups up north to catch a juicy division heaving into sight out of Aden would just ruin your whole day. And there is the sub option.

Also, with Colombo goes your shipyard. If you dent it it's a long way to help. (Bombay's yard is a joke.) He'll have Colombo as well as Singers nearby.

Bottomline, don't obsess on carriers right now. Obsess on LCUs. My 2 cents.

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 6:00:59 PM

Canoerebel

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Well, I have picket ships in position to guard against incursions by the KB.

I doubt surface ships can shut me down without being sighted. And if Brad sends in good surface ships he risks getting outclassed by RN heavies or carriers.

Again, I think Brad has to use the entire KB to shut down Allied shipping from Aden to Karachi in the short term.

My major focus over the next twenty days is getting the reinforcing British division from Aden to Karachi. I think I can do that unless the KB shows up or unless Brad parks major surface ships in the vicinity, in which case he risks getting a bloody nose from carriers.

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 6:05:27 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

Of course not, but is he really willing to commit the KB to patrolling on the extreme fringe of the map for a protracted period? Sounds like a good way for a sea power to commit suicide.

He can't commit a Mini-KB, because he has to assume that the Allies can mass their carriers. At present, the Allied carriers can handle anything short of the full KB.

Therefore, to impose a full blockade Brad has to commit the entire KB. He might do so, but sticking the KB on the far western edge of the map for a lengthy period doesn't sound like a good idea.

Am I missing something?

If he gets a good port on the west coast I think he can split the KB and sprinkle in some surface forces. The only danger to his carriers is the all the allied CV's dropping out of the exit chute at the same time (these exit shoots are a bit like a sci-fi novel no? The whole galactic fleet dropping out of warp ......) Netties have long range, that will help too. And his patrol planes have even longer range so he will know when you are coming. Colombo makes a good sub base and he can line every hex from the chute to Karachi with good subs. I think it is a bit of a shooting gallery and everything coming out of it has troops and planes on it. It certainly ties up the KB, but he can do a lot of damage in India while you are running the gauntlet.

Interesting prospects for both sides here.

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 6:05:41 PM

John 3rd

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Hit him elsewhere Dan. FORCE him to pay for concentrating all the Japanese CVs in one place a LONG WAYS from the Pacific. Totally concur with reinforcing and/or advancing in the Aleutians. Do you have enough at Suva or Pago Pago to advance towards the Marshalls. Bet there isn't too much there right now. You would have to worry about LBA but maybe you could get him reacting to your moves...

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RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) - 9/7/2010 6:48:41 PM

Rainer79

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Azprezto: Nobody seems quite sure of the location of India's territorial boundary that triggers reinforcements, nor where the reinforcements arrive. Delhi may be the triggering point, but I'm not sure if the line goes north or south or east or west from there.

While I am not 100% sure where around Delhi the reinforcements are triggered (I vaguely recall one hex south of Delhi but take that with a huge grain of salt), at least I can tell you what shiny toys you'd get.

XXI Indian Corps @ Aden
6th Indian Div (40 XP / 40 morale)
10th Indian Div (75 / 75)
31st Armoured Div (50/50)
8th Indian Div (75 / 75)
5th Indian Div (70 / 70)
XXI Corps Engr Bn

Waziristan Div (60/60) @ Karachi

plus a nice emergency convoy at Aden bringing lots of CW equipment and supplies

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