Bullwinkle58
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
A 5 division landing on Karachi is just begging to be destroyed in place. 5 divisions is only 2,000 AV and while it won't be destroyed by CD guns ( Karachi starts with only 2 x 6" guns ) the reality is that a 2,000 AV landing facing a single well-experienced UK Division ( say 70% experience ) would, without any forts face roughly the following AV: 350 AV x 70% x 4 ( terrain bonus ) = 1,000 AV. Since it starts with 1 fort that's a 20% bonus = 1200 AV.
I think your math is off here. Karachi, from what I can determine, is a light gray/light urban hex that enjoys a x2 defensive terrain bonus. Dark gray/heavy urban hexes, like Bombay, have the x4. That alone significantly skews your risk assessment.
Also, I don't know what British LCUs are left in this game, but in mine--with less combat to be sure--in September 1942 only one British division has 70 or more experience. Most are in the low 50s. The Indian Army units are all over the map.
I would say that a bigger factor in an amphib of Karachi would be Fort levels. You assume 1, and that is almost certainly low. That is why I included engineers in my proposed landing force. I also think Karachi would need significant air strike investments to hold off fort repairs. To Q-Ball's side of the ledger, however, Allied engneers building forts and repairing airfields have to eat too, and if they have replacemnts on consume those additional supplies as well.
Second, my advocacy of taking Karachi by sea has always been predicated on supply denial, which Q-Ball has to date not undertaken by sea, or by land from the eastern side. The land side has necessarily been impossible to accomplish yet, although he is now far enough north that moves to that end could be undertaken with some risk. The denial of Karachi inbound supply has always been the key to NW India, and he has not used the IJN to do so. By now his opponent has had time to slip in major units and supply quantities (or none, or little, to be fair) with no, zero, nada naval investment or risk of loss. Q-Ball relates the total Allied combatant ship losses to date, a tiny butcher's bill. CR has Sir Robined on steriods, and he's paid no naval price for it, and now, probably, will avoid auto-victory as a further reward.
Third, I advocated reconning Karachi in advance, either with flying boats, or Glens, or with a small para drop. I agree that there is a potential force equation on the ground at Karachi that makes the arithmetic impossible. If Q-Ball knows what is at Karachi he has not shared it in this AAR to my knowledge.
Fourth, IF supply can be made the determining factor, the "Line of Death" becomes irrelevant, and even damaging to the Allies. Those new forces to some extent eat supply to switch on devices, and if Karachi can be brought below the x2 supply demanded level, NO replacements, for any unit, will accrue, nor will devices in the pool be brought out, nor willl any TOE upgrades be possible there.
Fifth, supply denial in this initial post-landing phase would require some risky maneuvering east of Karachi to seal the land routes from Dehli, etc. This is the hardest part of the plan, and might invite CR's thrusting eastward to punch a hole in any seige wall established. He might succeed, in the short term, although his supply situation would probably prevent more than one good try, and the LCUs remaining should it fail, or Q-Ball close the gap, would not recover in beseiged Karachi.
Sixth, besides the secondary land war objectives of activating, and killing, the L-O-Death reenforcements--for a massive VP harvest BTW--investing Karachi has the MAIN objective of finally getting the USN into play while the IJN has any hope of killing or significantly wounding it in the one map location Q-Ball has laboriously deprived of ANY repair facilities. A wounded USN CV probably dies. A wounded IJN CV makes Colombo and lives. USN CV VP rates go at about 350 per, before aircraft losses. Karachi base itself is worth only 450 VP.
You should view 1 division as being the minimum defensive force there. With 1 division you won't shock and take the hex but you might well wear it down attritionally and then shock. The problem is that by now you should really expect more than 1 division as a garrison.
All true. Which is why he needs recon, and lots of own-force supply coming in, and a land operation to cut west-bound supply runs, and some time to wear down the defenders. However, the real strategic focus of a Karachi strike is to get the USN into the theater. To that end, Karachi falling quickly is not necessary, or perhaps not even desirable.
I don't think you'll take nearly as many casualties on landing as you expect though.... Also if you do invade and face recovering divisions then you shoudl expect to be able to wear them down in combat very rapidly. Recovering Bdes and divisions in AE are VERY, VERY vulnerable.
I agree. Which is why I advocated getting ashore by hook or by crook, then sitting to recover and do prep while daring CR to burn supply in trying to throw 5 divisions back into the sea with whatever he has managed to accumulate at Karachi. I don't think he could, and at that point time is not on his side if his naval response forces are far away.
I think if you wait till August you are screwed but you could go now. With that said, overall, I think your indecision re: the level of commitment has doomed the Indian venture from an early stage. It might now be best to view it as a large-scale spoiling attack... That'll change the approach and not be compatible with an auto-victory attempt but it may be more long-term strategically viable.
Going NE instead of striaght north from Ceylon was a mistake IMO, if auto-vicotry was the objective. I believe you even disagreed with striiking Ceylon. I thought that phase was reasonable for the reasons Q-Ball stated: to destroy prime British units, to gain a shipyard and large airfield, and to create a strategic "hinge" whereby CR did not know which direction Q-Ball would move next. The Ceylon op was fast and relatively cost-free for him. It secured the southern approaches to the theater. I think it was the right move. But following that success with NE India AND the central coast gave away time and momentum.
At this point, if auto-vic is no longer on the table, I would advocate a fairly agressive pull-out from India, since so much is invested far away from other Allied centers of strength. I'm not sure what value most of India has if not all of it is held, especially with coming Allied aircraft models, significant TOE upgrades to the Indian Army, and growing USN carrier units, especially CVEs, which offer the option of multiple spoiling actions in North, Central, and SouthPac. After that, the Essexes, and the game enters a new phase.
It appears from Q-Ball's comments that I'm preaching to an empty house. He has decided against a Karachi move, and that's certainly his right. It's his game. I decided to write this last appeal to the idea because of the x2 vs. x4 defensive bonus issue I began with. But also, to say one more time: It would have been GLORIOUS had it worked, and forever put AFBs on notice that the Sir Robin comes with a noose.
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