Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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This is a collection of excerpts from early-in-the-war posts covering the period from 12/7/41 to 2/1/42. It is a very long post that may not interest anyone, but it's something I've been meaning to do for awhile, and something I want to refer back to in the future. (Most of you can just skip right on to the next post unless you're really boored.) It shows two things: (1) the change in perception of the threat to India over a two month period early in the game despite Brad's well-orchestrated Oz deception effort; and (2) how early the Allies came up with a grand strategy, thus allowing me to work on troop, ship, and aircraft deployment and logistics from the beginning of the game. That plan is still in effect.
After the 12/10/41 Turn
"Scenario Two is a mess, at least for us Allied players who don't want to engage in pilot training. IJ air power is awesome through at least the end of 1944 judging by my game with Miller. The Japanese Army is mighty. Japanese transports are essentially limitless. And Japanese ASW and submarines are at least the equal of the Allies. Add to that the fact that I am playing Q-Ball, who is a very capable, organized, deep-thinking opponent...and I've stepped into a pile of doodoo.
"First, some of the ideas and strategies of the Real War and WitP are no longer applicable. For instance, wiping out a bunch of KB pilots is no longer a big deal since the Japanse can easily replace them and train them. Second, Allied LBA production and pilot training are no better than equal to the Japanese and perhaps inferior during long stretches of the war. So it's counter-productive for the Allies to try to engage in a war of attrition in places like Burma. Allied aircraft are too few and Japanese aircraft are too easy to replace.
"Putting considerations into my pipe and taking a few puffs suggest to me that the hated Sir Robin strategy may well be the way for the Allies to go in Scenario Two. Protect the valuable assets and excercise extreme restraint before engaging the enemy...and by extreme restraint I'm talking about late 1943 or so. That will be like two years from now in real life, given one-day turns, so I have no idea if I can control myself, but I'd be better off if I did.
"Short term, the Allies can carefully brandish carriers when the KB is distant, and I'll do that. For the long term, the only assets I really want to risk are DDs and CLs. They are fast and can often get themselves out trouble when they blunder into it. I don't want to risk CAs and BBs which can't extract themselves from trouble. I'll use them occasionally so that Miller knows they're around, but by and large the Allies will fight a CL/DD war for a long time...and that's a good thing since the Allies have already lost seven BB and a BC.
"So, for the foreseeable future, the only pleasure I get is logistics and training. I'm going to be conservative with my ships because, to be honest, it doesn't matter whether you get 200k fuel to Tahiti in costly little convoys over the course of two years, or send just a little there and then flood the place when it's much safer.
"As noted previously, I already know where the big Allied push is going to come in 1943. Until then, much effort will go toward the logistics to prepare for that actions...and the logistics to prepare for the feints that I hope will mislead my opponent so that I can achieve strategic surprise when the time comes.
"I also have to be alert to the possiblity of auto-victory. My first concerns are Hawaii and Oz; my secondary concerns are India and Russia. Not much I can do to help Russia (except build forts), but I am already planning for the defense of the other three.
"So...I don't blame anybody if they push the snooze button and check back in around, say, June 1, 2012."
After the 12/14/41 Turn (new commentary in bold and italics)
We're a week into the game. Since this is my second Scenario Two game (the first being in November 1944 now), what am I going to do differently?
1. Convoy System: I'll use larger, escorted supply convoys. In Game One, I started by using small, unescorted, low value TFs, but they got chewed alive by subs. Excellent idea - escorted convoys are almost never successfully attacked. Unescorted convoys that happen across enemy subs are almost always successfully attacked.
2. No Rushing to the Front: I won't push fuel to the front as hard as I did the first time. My tankers were just torpedo magnets and there isn't really a need to stockpile large quantities early. Works very well. Instead of fuel convoys, I have used escorted AOs placed at strategic bases to refuel long-distance TFs returning to West Coast from Oz. Love how this works. Now that it's July '42, I am beginning to set up regular fuel convoys to safe locations.
3. Not Contesting Parts of the Front: Q-Ball is going to push for Darwin, Port Headland, Noumea, and probably some of the islands like Suva, Pago Pago, Palmyra, and Midway. I believe I can turn penetrations in those areas to my advantage later in the game, so I won't fight hard there. Instead, I want to concentrate on beefing up the garrisons at Oz, Ceylon, and Hawaii to thwart the possibility of an auto-Victory by Q-Ball. Early efforts will also go into strengthening some garrisons in the Aleutians, Diego Garcia, Addu, Tahiti, and Christmas Islands. I have followed this pretty closely. I should note that, early on, I was most concerned about Oz. As Brad began moving on Oz in a big way, however, I became equally concerned about India to the point that I kept one of the two reinforcing Oz divisions there.
4. Fake Major Axis of Advance: Q-Ball knows I have used major invasions of the Kuriles, Sikhalin Island, and the DEI in previous games. Consequently, he'll garrison these bases and see to their defense. As we get well into 1942, the Allies will engage in activity suggesting a threat in these regions. I've focused on this objective in NoPac; not so much in the DEI...yet. Brad is most concerned about Timor/East DEI, though, as shown by his build-up of his west coast Oz bases.
5. Careful in Burma: Q-Ball will at least consider invading northeast India. I won't take a chance on having my Burma army too far forward and therefore isolated. I will get them back far enough to see to the defenses of Calcutta, Chittagong, and (eventually) Akyab. I got my units out of Burma per this plan, but ended up losing some anyway when they took the least optimum routes of retreat when Akyab and Chittagong fell.
6. Supplies and Fuel: Supplies have never been a problem in Game One, but fuel has been scarce from time to time. I'll work on setting up a better infrastructure. Pago Pago and Tahiti don't make great fuel dumps because their small port size restrict loading and unloading in quantity. They should be employed, but I need to develop a better system.
7. Pilot Training: I'm trying to get a handle on this even though I don't enjoy it. Q-Ball does enjoy it and, given the fact that this is something like his third game, he's got too much experience and talent to let him achieve a major advantage in this department. I still don't like pilot training, but I'm working it pretty hard.
After the 12/17/41 turn
...I don't think I have any specific knowledge about Q-Ball's tendencies that will assist me on the operational or tactical levels, but I do know that he's a careful, meticulous, capable player that will be very tough to beat. From a strategic standpoint I can nearly guarantee that he will move on Darwin, Port Headland, Noumea, and Midway. He'll also choose another major attack vector - could be anywhere, but I am most concerned about Oz and Hawaii for no particular reason yet. So far, I've been right about three out four, and I think Midway eventually will be targeted.
After the 12/29/41 Turn
One of the greatest assets the Allies have in the game can be Japan's uncertainty as to where the first big push (or axis of attack) will come, be it late 1942 or '43. Japan has to adequately defend a long perimeter that stretches from the Kuriles to Malaya and Sumatra. At any one point, the Allies can concentrate forces and overwhelm the enemy - at least until the enemy can prepare a counterstrike.
I want Q-Ball to spread his forces as much as possible. Consequently, the Allies will engage in raids throughout the game along this entire perimeter. I will also try to deceive the enemy by showing a "build up" of power in a variety of locations.
When the time comes to attack, the Allies intend for the first big push to be massive, overwhelming, and potentially crippling. Such an offensive can occur at any of five or six locations on the map, but I already have my preferences in mind.
Still sticking to this plan. Instead of employing raids, though, I focused on taking and building up the western Aleutians.
During the 1/12/42 Turn
Oz Under Seige: The Japanese are landing at Broome and the KB has returned to a point just off the coast at Townsville. With Port Moresby and Horn Island just falling and Japanese bombers hitting shipping around Darwin (four more xAKL just went down), things are getting really hot. With these dire developments and with CA Canberra having just gone down in a blaze of glory duking it out with CV Akagi, you can imagine that in real life there would some heightened worry in Australia. Into thise would steam the Queen Elizabeth carrying some fresh-faced, good-natured, and ribald Yanks. This should be quite an event...but it hasn't happened yet. I detailed a DD and AM from Sydney to rendezvous with QE to provide ASW escort, but the meeting ending up slowing down QE so that she won't arrive until tonight. Arg.
Japanese Grand Strategy: From the outset of the game, my two main concerns have been Hawaii and Australia. A committed, well-thought-out Japanese campaign targeting either is a possible route to Japanese auto-victory. At the moment, things are very quiet in Hawaii, though I'm attending to matters there as best I can. But Oz certainly looks hot. I'm not as worried about India, CenPac, New Zealand, or the Aleutians only because they don't represent auto-victory threats (India would except I don't think Japan has a chance of conquering her). I won't be so sure about India in future games!
Alllied Grand Strategy: I would love to duke it out with Japan in Oz (or India, though I don't think that's likely as noted above) as long as I don't get overwhelmed. A land campaign in which the Allies can employ lots of aircraft from a multitude of fields should be beneficial. Moreover, I would love to keep Q-Ball focused on Oz since I have grand plans - long range plans - plans for late 1943 - in a place far, far away. Short term, though, I need soldiers in Oz and that means all eyes are on the QE tonight... Yes!
During the 1/15/42 Turn
Oz By Gosh: Now the Japanese are landing at Portland Roads on the NE coast of Australia. There an Allied DD making a dash for safety from the Torres Strait duked it out with the Kako/Furutaka combat TF, survived, but then was dispatched by RO-66. Q-Ball is enveloping northern Oz in his evil pincers. What I don't know is whether this is the "real thing" or an elaborate ruse designed to distract me from a real target like India or Hawaii. Thus far, the bases he's taken are useful to him for recon purposes, but he hasn't pushed far enough to prove that he's really coming hard. So I'm trying to attend to Oz while not forgetting that he can put a hurting on me elsewhere. I think this was the first time I expressed my incipient concern about India.
During the 1/16 and 1/17/42 Turns
Singapore and India: The Allies have 760 AV behind three forts at Singapore. My fondest hope is that the garrison might last until the end of the month. Once Singapore falls, Japanese shipping (including nasty subs) can move into the Bay of Bengal freely. Brad can shoot to invade Ceylon or the Chittagong area as early as February. Colombo currently has 600+ AV, Trincomalee 100+, Chittagong 300, Calcutta 300, Diamond Harbor 100.
Before the 1/18/42 Turn
Brad is that most dangerous of all Japanese players: bold but careful; fast but methodical; and very experienced.
This is his third AE game - one as Allies and two as Japan (plus plenty of WitP experience). He knows exactly where the Allies are weakest and where he can push with relatively little risk to his forces. He's got everything time to a T, and he knows his opponent about as well as possible.
That said, my only concern at this point is avoiding auto-victory. Do that and preserve my carrier corps and the Allies will be fine in '43 even if Japan has Ceylon, New Zealand, the Aleutians, and the Line Islands. I intend to play cautiously until a good opportunity arises to strike hard. Until then it will be nibbling at the edges.
As for auto-victory, I think there are three routes Brad might choose: India, Australia, or Hawaii (the latter would need additional work, I think). I'm satisfied that India can take care of itself given troop levels, so my main effort will go to reinforcing Oz and Hawaii. All I need are political points to purchase restricted troops! I have withdrawn or disbanded all West Coast squadrons eligible to this point, but PPs gained were meager.
During the 1/20/42 Turn
Japanese Intentions: Still no clear sign whether Brad is targeting Oz, India, Hawaii, or some other locale for his attention. I am so worried about these three "biggies" that nearly all my reinforcements are heading there. On that note, the elements of the Oz division that recently arrived at Aden promptly boarded transports that will stop at Colombo before making the long, hazardous journey to Oz. When the second Oz division arrives at Aden in a few weeks, my current plan is to devote those units to India. India is enough of a concern to warrant one of two Oz divisions arriving in Aden.
Before the 1/21/42 Turn
Here's a look at Allied grand strategy:
1. Avoid Japanese auto-victory and it's red-headed step-child, the one-sided carrier battle loss. Yes!
2. Protect Ceylon, India, Hawaii, and Australia with as many ground troops as I can. Everything else is expendable at this early point in the game (including New Zealand, New Caledonia, the Line Islands, and the Aleutians).
3. Avoid unnecessary wastage of transports, in part by keeping them in safe ports early in the game, and in part by utilizing larger, escorted convoys rather than low-risk, unescorted, single ship TFs.
4. Train - arg! - pilots. Nearly every squadron on the map is training and I think I understand the difference between level 50 experience and level 70 skill, how to train pilots to those levels, and how to move pilots around once they are trained. Try not to commit pilots until experience is 50 and the needed skill is 70. Do not engage in an air war of attrition unless the results are satisfactory (unlike WitP in which any results were satisfactory because the Japanese air force was eroded by each pilot lost).
5. When possible, seek or accept opportunities to effectively attrit Japan's achilles heel - her navy. Celebrate every sinking of a CA or a CL as though it were a national holiday. Japan has precious few of these ships and they don't respawn.
6. Eventually, to create noise in areas that aren't actually targets (ie, diversionary tactics).
7. By the summer or autumn of 1943, attack the enemy in an unexpected place - or at least in a place where by deception or skill or surprise the Allies can achieve overwhelming numerical superiority long enough to take control of the region. Up to that point, Q-Ball will have developed his perimeter defenses. They will be well-thought out, but of necessity they will be spread out as he has to be prepared for a major thrust everywhere from the Kuriles to the Bay of Bengal. Achieving overwhelming superiority will be possible for the Allies at any one place, but once the Allies commit to that vector the enemy will be able to adjust and reorient defenses so that the advantage will eventually disappear. Further progress will be slow and painful. So that first attack had better be (a) massive, (b) successful, (c) in an area vital to the enemy, and (d) accomplished in a manner that permits the Allies to successfully defend the lodgement, build it up, and move forward.
During the 1/22/42 Turn
Japanese Intentions: So, where will Q-Ball head next? Right now all the activity is around Oz, which is ominous indeed. This could be the real thing or, in the hands of a clever deceiver, noise to disguise his real objective. There hasn't been any enemy activity to speak of around Hawaii (including the Line Islands and Midway), nor any particularly threatening around India and Ceylon. All three of these are getting as much attention as I can give at the moment.
During 1/24 to 1/26/42 Turn
Japanese Intentions: I still don't have a good feel for where Q-Ball will head next. Oz seems the logical target given all the attention given there, but I have a hunch the target mgiht be India and/or Ceylon. Hawaii is my third guess.
During 2/1/42 Turn
Ceylon/India: Japan hasn't done anything to suggest that an invasion in this region is coming, but I'm still very suspicious. Another Australian division arrives at Aden in a few weeks, and I think I'll send it to India. Unless, that is, Brad does something in the meantime to confirm that he is focusing on Oz rather than India. Nothings going to happen until Singapore falls, but that won't be long now.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/28/2010 9:20:29 PM >
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