RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943"

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:01:26 PM

briantopp

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Turn 6, first combat round, 29-30th corps: With Rhzev all but taken, 29-30th corps turns to its next objective - Kalinin. A recc unit finds nothing standing between Rhzev and the city. Infantry and armour are on the move east. Moscow is coming into sight, at the extreme southeast of this screencapture.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:06:16 PM

briantopp

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Turn 4, combat round 2, 9th and 4th armies: 9th and 4th armies now need to destroy the pocket in front of them and get to the front line, far to the east, as quickly as possible. Both armies open up on the encircled Soviet forces before them. 9th army cuts its opponent to pieces but it remains standing. 4th army's opponents completely disintegrate -- by this combat round, they are all annihilated. Meanwhile, to the east 3rd and 4th panzer groups are mopping up and looking to solidify the front.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:09:51 PM

briantopp

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Turn 5, combat round 5, 9th and 4th armies: Another few kicks and 9th army also destroys the Soviet forces before it. 9th and 4th armies then reorganize (getting divisions as close to their corps HQs as possible) and advance to the east. In this screen capture both armies are arriving to help finish the cleanup closer to the front, and to relieve panzer units on the front line. 3rd panzer will reconsolidate to the north aiming at Gzhatsk and then Borodino. 4th panzer group will reorganize to the south and aim at Kaluga.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:20:03 PM

briantopp

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Turn 6, combat round 1, 9th and 4th armies: 9th and 4th armies have replaced 3rd and 4th panzer groups in the centre of the line, and largely finished cleaning-up Soviet units isolated behind the line (the fortified position to the west of Vyasma has surprisingly difficult and expensive to crack. Although the units were surrounded they appear to have been supplied). 3rd panzer group is beginning its advance on Yolokolansk and Borodino. 4th panzer group is almost reorganized for a push through Kaluga, although the distances involved in this reconsolidation of the panzer group mean this advance won't start seriously until turn 7. I may be being a little too deliberate in my advance here.

In the near future it will be time to make this scenario's big decision: to go for Moscow in 1941, or to wait for spring 1942?

At a minimum, I want to possess the entire fortified line (the "Mozhaisk position") shown in this screen capture to provide the central position for a defensive line. I can hope to hold it with infantry, positioning a panzer group to its north and another to its south to hopefully destroy Soviet reinforcements in mobile battles during the winter.

If I do decide to press onto Moscow I obviously have to get through and beyond that line.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:24:49 PM

briantopp

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Turn 4, end of combat round 2, 2nd army: 2nd army, assisted by half of 2nd panzer group, is grinding away at an army from Soviet western front and most of Bryansk front, which has been pocketed. As occured historically, the reduction of this pocket is taking a lot of time, and is preventing 2nd panzer group from resuming its advance. So the goal here is to extract 2nd panzer group from this fight as quickly as possible. 2nd army needs to finish the job and then advance southeast to help screen the gigantic open right flank of the German advance.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:27:36 PM

briantopp

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Turn 5, combat round 5, 2nd army: Soviet forces around Bryansk have largely disintegrated, allowing 2nd panzer group to pull its corps out of this fight and back onto the roads. 2nd army still has a big job to do dealing with the Bryansk Front pocket, and not many divisions to do it with. Furthermore, all of them are needed as soon as possible to the east.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:29:09 PM

briantopp

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Turn 6, end of first combat round: Slow progress in being made cleaning up the situation. Guderian has extracted his panzers but is on the phone yelling about his flank.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:32:03 PM

briantopp

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Turn 4, end of combat round 2, 2nd panzer group: A panzer division and a mixed force of army units are advancing on Kursk on the extreme right of the German position. Much of 2nd panzer group is engaged in the Bryansk pocket, and so only three units are forward, probing carefully north and northeast of Orel.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:35:04 PM

briantopp

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Turn 5, combat round 5, 2nd panzer group: 2nd panzer group has finally extracted itself from the battle around the Bryansk pocket, but its units have moved as far as they will this turn. The spearpoint of the panzer group therefore continues to kick its heels north and northeast of Orel. The mixed force on the right flank has taken Kursk -- and has also bumped into a defensive line put up by Soviet Voronezh Front.

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< Message edited by briantopp -- 11/6/2010 9:36:01 PM >

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/6/2010 9:41:39 PM

briantopp

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Turn 6, end of first combat round, 2nd panzer group: Moving south to north:

- The mixed force at Kursk has sent a recc unit around the Voronezh Front screen to probe it and see if it can be surrounded. Looks like it can.

- A weak luftwaffe division has arrived and will be used to screen a section of this huge open flank.

- A couple of exhausted divisions from 2nd army are arriving and will also be pressed into service on the open right flank. Hopefully they'll recover before being tested again.

- The centre of gravity of 2nd panzer group has resumed its advance to the northeast. Recc units probe forward. Nothing much seems to lie between 2nd panzer group and Tula, at the top right of this screen capture.

- 2nd panzer group is now in contact with 4th panzer group to the north, around Belev.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/7/2010 8:07:45 AM

BigDuke66

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No Rasputitsa in October? All looks very dry.

About rail repair, I see no guerrilla for the Soviets so those points would be used to convert conquered rail but I think that's job of the rail repair units. I see the rail repair points that each player gets more like small groups fixing a rail blown up by guerrilla and not converting 5km of rail to the German gauge.

About tank strength, I wonder how the scenario would run with German tank strength would be closer to the real numbers.
Taking some numbers from the book "Germany and the Second World War" the average strength is around 56% what seems OK compared to the missing percentage of 40% reported 25.8.1941 and 53% reported on 5.9.1941 OK when also considering that losses continued and a big replacement allocation of 323(316) tanks arrived.
Also 2 fresh PzD(2. & 5. with 450 tanks) arrived at HG Mitte in time for Operation Taifun.

< Message edited by BigDuke66 -- 11/7/2010 7:17:36 PM >

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/7/2010 2:33:29 PM

briantopp

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BigDuke66

No Rasputitsa in October? All looks very dry.

About rail repair, I see no guerrilla for the Soviets so those points would be used to convert conquered rail but I think that's job of the rail repair units. I see the rail repair points that each player gets more like small groups fixing a rail blown up by guerrilla and not converting 5km of rail to the German gauge.

About tank strength, I wonder how the scenario would run with German tank strength would be closer to the real numbers.
Taking some numbers from the book "Germany and the Second World War" the average strength is around 68% what seems OK compared to the missing percentage of 40% reported 25.8.1941 and 53% reported on 5.9.1941 OK when also considering a big replacement allocation of 323(316) tanks and 2 fresh PzD(2. & 5.) arriving at HG Mitte.

Rasputitsa: (this is a bit of a "spoiler" -- don't read on if you like to be surprised in scenarios). In an earlier discussion on this board I tried to figure out how to make different weather states uncertain. In other words, to create three-way possibilities like "dry 33%, light mud 33%, mud 33%". This is how my reference game, "Guderian's Blitzkreig II", works. The odds shift over time but you can never be sure of the weather. This creates some uncertainty and is different from game to game and so leads to variety. But doing this requires hundreds and hundreds of events over the course of a big game like this and I haven't tried that yet (there are some oddities and uncertainties in the way the TOAW events editor needs to be set up to make this possible, as well, as we discussed on this board). So, the weather states are hardwired, as follows:

Turns 1-7 dry weather
Turns 8-9 light mud (starts Oct 25th)
Turns 10-15 mud (Nov 1)
turns 16-19 light freeze (Nov 22)
turns 20-22 medium freeze (Dec 6)
turns 25-60 deep freeze (Dec 23)

These states reverse in the spring of 1942, play out again in the fall of 1942, and one more time in reverse in the spring of 1943.

I've read about rain bogging roads in some parts of this theatre as early as Oct 7th, which is turn 3 in this scenario. But we need an average start for each of these weather states that makes sense for the whole theatre. I'm using an average of the variable weather table in GBII. Do you have a better source? I guess you're proposing there be fewer dry weather turns and that weather effects start earlier.

Rail repair: It gets tedious to repair the rails but you're right -- it would be more accurate to deploy engineers and take rail repair off auto pilot.

Tank strength: I'm basing the start-up numbers on Jentz's "Panzertruppen" do you have a better source?

All the best
bt

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/7/2010 8:53:11 PM

BigDuke66

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I expected it around 13th October but your right when I look thru the "Tagesmeldungen der Operations-Abteilung des GenStdH" I see sometimes reports that differ a lot, on area reports is dry roads another area reports roads are bottomless. I couldn't track specific dates down but overall the muddy time was in October and in November the first frost arrived so maybe shorten the dry weather and move everything else a bit closer to the start would fit better.

For the tank strength I don't really have better numbers I just took the numbers from a table in "Germany and the Second World War" Volume 4(that is the table that comes after the one you used, check out your table of contents as the German & English page numbers aren't comparable) that shows the tank strength on the east front.
They started with 3648 and are down to 2044(including the big replacement shipment) in October what sets them to 56% of the starting strength, plus 2 new & fresh PzD that come in with together 450 tanks.

Your numbers look like the starting numbers of Operation Barbarossa, check out this:
http://www.orbat.com/site/ww2/drleo/011_germany/afv-strengths/_afv_41-06-22.htm

What gives a headache are the numbers for Panzer I losses listed on your table(22.6.1941-31.1.1942) with 450 tanks lost and 42 as replacement but the table from the link only shows 181 allocated so losses were twice as high as Panzer I were ever on the east front at all, OK numbers for 2., 5., 15. Panzer Divisions & 5. Leichte Division (mot) are not complete so maybe they had the majority of Panzer I but again the your table is only for the east front and 2. & 5. Panzer Division were at home when Barbarossa started and 15. Panzer Division & 5. Leichte Division were used in Africa at that time.

Anyhow on your table you can see what and how many tanks were lost but also the replacement they got, maybe toying around with those numbers and the starting numbers brings you close to what was on the east front in October and you can then adjust the Panzer Divisions(except 2. & 5. who seem to have arrived in full strength).

PS When you have those numbers a would raise it by X% has usually the reported losses were too high as tanks that were first consider lost sometimes got salvaged later and got back to the unit but the loss report was for sure not corrected, that should really bring you close to the starting numbers for Operation Taifun.

< Message edited by BigDuke66 -- 11/7/2010 9:02:36 PM >

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/8/2010 1:02:59 AM

BigDuke66

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I was too interested myself so I played a bit with the numbers:
The calculation is base on "Germany and the Second World War: Volume IV: The Attack on the Soviet Union"
http://www.amazon.com/Germany-Second-World-War-Attack/dp/0198228864/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1289177083&sr=1-1

On the east front on 1st October 1941:
Panzer I = -77(Yes indeed more losses than tanks on the front + replacements)
Panzer II & IIF = 490
Panzer III = 676
Panzer 38(t) = 227
Panzer IV = 246
Panzerbefehlsw. = 98
Sturmgesch�tz III = 202
Panzer 35(t) = ?(No losses or replacements listed)

Percentage of starting strength:
Panzer I = -27,40%(Yes indeed more losses than tanks on the front + replacements)
Panzer II & IIF = 65,95%
Panzer III = 69,05%
Panzer 38(t) = 34,87%
Panzer IV = 55,41%
Panzerbefehlsw. = 68,53%
Sturmgesch�tz III = 80,80%
Panzer 35(t) = ?(No losses or replacements listed)

So if you use the percentage on the German tank units and round it up you should get pretty close to my numbers, maybe a bit more but as I said that seems OK anyway as you can see in case of Panzer I either the loss reports were simply overstated or some numbers are wrong.

Good would also be to place the big replacement shipment for October directly into the Pool, maybe lower it a bit as I don't know how much HG Mitte got of these:
October 1941 replacement:
Panzer I = 0
Panzer II & IIF = 1
Panzer III = 187
Panzer 38(t) = 72
Panzer IV = 56
Panzerbefehlsw. = 0
Sturmgesch�tz III = 7

I'm not sure how to simulate the Panzerbefehlswagen, until now it looks to me the those with a real armament(5cm KwK) came not until 1942, before that they only seem to have had a MG 34, but as they were command tanks something stronger should be used to simulate there effect on the whole unit.

Another idea is that you may alter TOE a German Panzer Division to this "ideal":
http://www.lexikon-der-wehrmacht.de/Zusatz/Heer/Panzerdivision41.htm
As you see no
-Panzer I(well except the Panzerbefehlswagen maybe),
-Panzer 35(t)(I read they were phased out in late 1941 but saw action again as they were used for the 22. Panzerdivision and so appeared on the east front again)
-Panzer 38(t)(was still produced until July 1942 but from the last order of 500 only 321 were delivered before contract was canceled so they should stay longer in the game)

< Message edited by BigDuke66 -- 11/8/2010 3:53:45 AM >

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/8/2010 11:58:07 PM

briantopp

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Turn 7 16th army (+ 29th-30th corps): 16th army is a long way from its supply and is feeling it, and so presses slowly towards Volochek. 29-30th corps form up to advance on Kalinin.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/8/2010 11:59:43 PM

briantopp

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Turn 8 16th army/29-30th corps: 16th army creeps forward. 29-30th corps have arrived at Kalinin -- supply position is critical.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 12:03:21 AM

briantopp

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Turn 9 16th army/29-30th corps: Fighting proceeds. I have spotted a surprise Soviet unit to the rear of 29-30th corps and will need to reach south for a unit to deal with it.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 12:06:19 AM

briantopp

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Turn 10 16th army + 29/30th corps: Kalinin falls. Soviet Kalinin Front had a surprise up its sleeve, staging an attack into 29-30th corps's rear, launching from Torzhok. A motorised division needed to be rushed from 3rd panzer division to contain this Soviet counter-attack. My plan, once the scattered Soviet units in this area are dealt with, is to link up 16th army and 29th-30th corps at Torzhok and to form a defensive line.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 12:08:02 AM

briantopp

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Turn 11 16th army-29-30th corps: Mud weather is settling in, and so progress is miniscule.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 12:10:42 AM

briantopp

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Turn 7 9th and 4th armies: As the turn begins, 3rd panzer army is beginning its advance towards Yokokolamsk, and 4th panzer group is launching its attack towards Kaluga.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 12:14:09 AM

briantopp

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Turn 8 9th and 4th armies: The Soviets are putting up some determined resistance on this line. To the south, Soviet 50th army attacked in force on a fairly broad front, penetrating the German line (I am counter-attacking in this screen capture.) 4th panzer is fighting a battle against a substantial armoured force at Kaluga. Soviet Western Front launched a determined attack on the seam between 9th and 4th armies. 3rd panzer group is grinding away at the northern end of the Mozhaisk position.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 12:17:07 AM

briantopp

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Turn 9 9th and 4th army: During its portion of turn 8, the Soviets gave 9th army a serious bloody nose, destroying several German infantry divisions. 4th army assumed more of the line and is counter-attacking. 3rd panzer group is making slow progress blasting the Soviets out of their prepared positions in the northern section of the defense line.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 12:19:30 AM

briantopp

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Turn 10 9th and 4th armies: 50th army's offensive in the south is finally stopped. Kaluga falls. At great cost, 3rd panzer army, 9th army and 4th army are blasting through the Moshaisk position.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 1:02:24 AM

briantopp

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Turn 11 9th and 4th armies: Progress has ground to a creep as mud season constricts supply and mobility, and aims combat effectiveness.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 1:04:37 AM

briantopp

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Turn 7 2nd panzer group (2nd army's battle in the Bryansk pocket has become a sideshow so I'll stop following it in this AAR). A thin screen of units is forming up to cover the long, long right flank. 2nd panzer group is reorganized and preparing to press northeast towards Tula.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 1:07:09 AM

briantopp

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Turn 8 2nd panzer group: with light mud warning of the looming transport crisis and the entire panzer group supplied along a single road (and broken railroad) I am proceeding cautiously, looking for a defensible jumpoff point for when the mud abates.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 1:08:31 AM

briantopp

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Turn 9 2nd panzer group: A weak Soviet counter-offensive at Shegekino will need to be pushed back.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 1:10:12 AM

briantopp

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Turn 10 2nd panzer group: Mud and no supply makes for a creeping offensive that takesw no new ground. Tula is only four hexes away but not wise to attack now.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 1:11:24 AM

briantopp

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Turn 11 2nd panzer group: The panzer group is basically immobilized. Soviet units are probing the open flank.

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RE: "Battle for Moscow 1941-1943" - 11/9/2010 1:20:42 AM

briantopp

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BigDuke66

I was too interested myself so I played a bit with the numbers:
The calculation is base on "Germany and the Second World War: Volume IV: The Attack on the Soviet Union"
http://www.amazon.com/Germany-Second-World-War-Attack/dp/0198228864/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1289177083&sr=1-1

On the east front on 1st October 1941:
Panzer I = -77(Yes indeed more losses than tanks on the front + replacements)
Panzer II & IIF = 490
Panzer III = 676
Panzer 38(t) = 227
Panzer IV = 246
Panzerbefehlsw. = 98
Sturmgesch�tz III = 202
Panzer 35(t) = ?(No losses or replacements listed)

Percentage of starting strength:
Panzer I = -27,40%(Yes indeed more losses than tanks on the front + replacements)
Panzer II & IIF = 65,95%
Panzer III = 69,05%
Panzer 38(t) = 34,87%
Panzer IV = 55,41%
Panzerbefehlsw. = 68,53%
Sturmgesch�tz III = 80,80%
Panzer 35(t) = ?(No losses or replacements listed)

So if you use the percentage on the German tank units and round it up you should get pretty close to my numbers, maybe a bit more but as I said that seems OK anyway as you can see in case of Panzer I either the loss reports were simply overstated or some numbers are wrong.

Good would also be to place the big replacement shipment for October directly into the Pool, maybe lower it a bit as I don't know how much HG Mitte got of these:
October 1941 replacement:
Panzer I = 0
Panzer II & IIF = 1
Panzer III = 187
Panzer 38(t) = 72
Panzer IV = 56
Panzerbefehlsw. = 0
Sturmgesch�tz III = 7

I'm not sure how to simulate the Panzerbefehlswagen, until now it looks to me the those with a real armament(5cm KwK) came not until 1942, before that they only seem to have had a MG 34, but as they were command tanks something stronger should be used to simulate there effect on the whole unit.

Another idea is that you may alter TOE a German Panzer Division to this "ideal":
http://www.lexikon-der-wehrmacht.de/Zusatz/Heer/Panzerdivision41.htm
As you see no
-Panzer I(well except the Panzerbefehlswagen maybe),
-Panzer 35(t)(I read they were phased out in late 1941 but saw action again as they were used for the 22. Panzerdivision and so appeared on the east front again)
-Panzer 38(t)(was still produced until July 1942 but from the last order of 500 only 321 were delivered before contract was canceled so they should stay longer in the game)

Thomas Jentz in "Panzertruppen" (Schiffer Military History 1996) on page 206 offers a quite detailed breakdown of each panzer division as they stood in September -- admittedly a bit earlier than this campaign begins. He then has some tables on pages 210-211 that suggest that as least some of the divisions were rebuilt back to where they were in September before the start of "Typhoon". And on pages 212-213 he gives details TO&Es for all the additional formations entering the theater through to June 1942. That's what I've been using. I'll compare the totals to your numbers and see what kind of adjustment might work. I like the unit-by-unit accuracy of Jentz's book.

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