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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/8/2010 3:33:33 PM

Canoerebel

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With all the information that's come to light about the strength of the reinforcements triggered by the "Line of Death," there's no way Brad will dare cross!

(in reply to witpqs)

Post #: 781

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/8/2010 5:34:08 PM

Nemo121

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quote:

On the other, late '42 is too early for a major invasion of the sort I have planned, at least for Scenario Two.

WHY??????????

I invaded and retook the Marshall in February/March 1942 in Scenario 2. Late 1942 is emphatically not too early for a major invasion taking out an island chain or a series of island chains. If anything it is too late when facing a gambit like his.

He is too timid in India ( IMO ) given the moves you've shown in your AAR - he should cross the line of death and be done with it, he can stop you reinforcing and if he can do that those reinforcements matter not one jot - and you're too timid in the Pacific IMO.

The longer you delay with your counter-offensive the stronger the resistance is going to be and the less you are going to destabilise his Indian adventure.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to witpqs)

Post #: 782

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/8/2010 7:21:38 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm not talking about an island chain here. Invading an atoll area is a different proposition, because once the place is taken and adequately garrisoned, it is nearly impossible for the Japanese to reclaim (they're not good at invading later in the war - especially atolls).

I'm dealing with a far different proposition. I don't want to go into details, but Japanese power very much would be a factor. Land I can handle since most of the IJA army is far away, but I would immediately be at a disadvantage at sea and in the air. In a very bad way.

Why then am I planning this? This has been my plan since December 7, 1941. For eight months I've been attending to logistics and position and prep of troops. This plan cuts to the chase and will be implemented at a point when the Allies are much closer to the Japanese in strength.

The Allies can fight for bases on the periphery and make slow but steady progress in 1942. All the while, they'll be at risk of a major carrier defeat (as will the Japanese). But if successful, the Allies will then be in a position to strike more deeply into the "guts" in 1943.

Well, I believe that the Allies can forego the nibbling at the edges in '42 and go right for the guts in '43. The advantage is that doing so reduces the risk of debilitating losses to carriers and high-value transports that I'll need in '43, and I'll be in a position to better organize some feints and deception plans.

This plan is far more detailed than that, but moving it up from '43 to late '42 could well spell disaster. If I have to, fine, I'll do it. But I don't believe I have to.

As for Brad overwhelming the Allies in India, it's too late. Even if he has the equivalent of 20 divisions in India at this point, he doesn't have enough. The Allies have the equivalent of about 15 divisions. And Brad has to use a fair portion of his forces to guard his flanks and rear.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/8/2010 7:26:07 PM >

(in reply to Nemo121)

Post #: 783

One reason to avoid call forwarding.... - 11/8/2010 7:50:21 PM

Canoerebel

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I just saw this on the website of a UK newspaper: "British health officials are hard at work on a new app that will allow users to pee into their cell phones and find out within minutes if they have an STD."

That would be a good reason to avoid call forwarding.

P.S. Back to the regularly schedule game now.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 784

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/8/2010 11:30:56 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not talking about an island chain here. Invading an atoll area is a different proposition, because once the place is taken and adequately garrisoned, it is nearly impossible for the Japanese to reclaim (they're not good at invading later in the war - especially atolls).

I'm dealing with a far different proposition. I don't want to go into details, but Japanese power very much would be a factor. Land I can handle since most of the IJA army is far away, but I would immediately be at a disadvantage at sea and in the air. In a very bad way.

Why then am I planning this? This has been my plan since December 7, 1941. For eight months I've been attending to logistics and position and prep of troops. This plan cuts to the chase and will be implemented at a point when the Allies are much closer to the Japanese in strength.

The Allies can fight for bases on the periphery and make slow but steady progress in 1942. All the while, they'll be at risk of a major carrier defeat (as will the Japanese). But if successful, the Allies will then be in a position to strike more deeply into the "guts" in 1943.

Well, I believe that the Allies can forego the nibbling at the edges in '42 and go right for the guts in '43. The advantage is that doing so reduces the risk of debilitating losses to carriers and high-value transports that I'll need in '43, and I'll be in a position to better organize some feints and deception plans.

This plan is far more detailed than that, but moving it up from '43 to late '42 could well spell disaster. If I have to, fine, I'll do it. But I don't believe I have to.

As for Brad overwhelming the Allies in India, it's too late. Even if he has the equivalent of 20 divisions in India at this point, he doesn't have enough. The Allies have the equivalent of about 15 divisions. And Brad has to use a fair portion of his forces to guard his flanks and rear.

Maybe I am just conservative by nature but I don't think any massive Allied attack can come before 7/43 vs a competent Japanese opponent. Not in scen #2. You just can't control any point where a Japanese player had the foresight to build up a network of supporting airfields. Problem is fighter production and the dang Tojo. Oscars and zeros are bad enough but the tojo holds the skies until you can get enough hellcats, lightnings and corsairs to take them on. What makes this problem worse is the service ratings of Allied planes vs Japanese-so that even if you can theoretically put an equal number of planes in the air, the Japanese ability to replace losses and repair damaged planes faster than you allows him to control the skies at any point in the map. I don't really see the light until the P47 goes into production.

Not to say that there is not an opportunity to take a place and start grinding away. You need to do it but don't understimate Japanese capibility to react in scen 2. I have reached turn 500 and have constantly been suprised because I had no foreknowledge of the benefits Japan gets in #2. I just though he was going to get a few extra resources at start....

Unless you have had some sort of miracle victory vs KB, any attempt at a major operation in 1942 should be easily crushed.

_____________________________

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Post #: 785

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/8/2010 11:57:36 PM

cookie monster

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I agree any conquest would be easily isolated then counter invaded.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 12:08:49 AM

vettim89

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I think there is a lot of game to be played here before early 1943; so it is hard to project with any certainty what the situation will be when that time arrives. That said, Dan has the luxury of eventually being able to dictate some of the air war by having the "enemy at the gates" so to speak. Yes, the Allies are weak now but they grow stronger every day. Eventually they will equal and then pass the Japanese in all facets of the war. Ultimately there will be a battle of attrition where Dan can wear Q-Ball's forces down. Because this is Scenario 2, that point will be later in the war than RL or Scenario 1. Here's the clincher though: because of Brad's India Adventure, this can occur without the Allies invading a single base. So Dan can do it with a very short logistics tail vice say having this battle occur in the SoPac or DEI or NG.

If the Allies can hold the line in India, the whole invasion will be more of a help to the Allies than hindrance. Of course, I did say "if".

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

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Post #: 787

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 12:42:25 AM

Canoerebel

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Tim, you're right!

It may sound strange for a player on the brink of disaster to claim it's part of a plan, but from the outset (and as articulated early in this AAR) I wanted Brad to get bogged down in a big land/air war in either Oz or India.

Brad has penetrated further than I had anticipated, in part because he's a very good player and in part because my very soft defense has helped him, so that I find myself with very little margin of error at this point.� That I hadn't intended, but it could pay handsome dividends if I am successful in staving off Japanese auto-victory.

Yes, there are nearly five months left to play before auto victory comes into play, so alot will happen that could sway things considerably.

Thanks for chiming in, guys.

(in reply to vettim89)

Post #: 788

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 12:57:56 AM

Canoerebel

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Can anyone tell me the garrison limits on Marcus and Wake Island? I'm at home with no access to the game, so I can't get it. Once I have that info, I will be in a position to describe Allied plans into early 1943, breaking my long-standing OpSec silence.

P.S. I'm sure Marcus's limit is 6k, but I'm not sure about Wake. I hope it's the same. :)

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Post #: 789

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:07:21 AM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

Once I have that info, I will be in a position to describe Allied plans into early 1943, breaking my long-standing OpSec silence.

I call Sumatra! Run up from Perth and not impossible to supply from Capetown.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:07:25 AM

vettim89

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Can anyone tell me the garrison limits on Marcus and Wake Island?� I'm at home with no access to the game, so I can't get it.� Once I have that info, I will be in a position to describe Allied plans into early 1943, breaking my long-standing OpSec silence.

P.S.� I'm sure Marcus's limit is 6k, but I'm not sure about Wake.� I hope it's the same.� :)

Both are vsmall per the manual. That means 6000. You win!!!!!!!

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:08:35 AM

cookie monster

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Marcus is a very small atoll therefore limit is 6,000.

Wake is the same.

The rule is if the name is in yellow it's a very small island.

EDIT Vettim beat me to it.

< Message edited by cookie monster -- 11/9/2010 1:09:13 AM >

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Post #: 792

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:28:45 AM

Canoerebel

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Thanks for the info, and JohnDillworth gets the prize for correctly guessing the ultimate destination.

Here's the general plan, most of which readers may recognize:

1. The Allies will land in overwhelming strength on Sumatra sometime in 1943 (the later the better). The strategic objective is to neutralize Palembang, Singapore, and western Java. Landings will take place from Padang to Oosthaven.

2. To deceive Brad, long-term, medium-term, and short-term feints and deception will take place:

    a) Long-term: A massive Allied build-up of NoPac (the Western Aleutians) and Australian bases to create an
         appearance of menage to Hokkaido, the Kuriles, Sikhalin Island, and the eastern DEI.

    b) Medium-term: Conquest of Marcus Island and Wake Island in late '42 or early '43. This will pose a threat
         to the Bonin Islands and will add to the perception of CenPac/NoPac menace.

    c) Short-term: When the Allies prepare to implement the Sumatra invasion, massive "dummy" invasion forces
         will gather and move toward the Kuriles, someplace in CenPac or SoPac, and northwestern Oz or
         the DEI.

3. In addition to the Sumatra invasion, a secondary invasion will be set to take place a week or two later (once the KB has been drawn to Sumatra). This might consist of a move on Kwajalein, Ponape or someplace like that.

4. Creation of so many real and diversionary TFs will require a vast number of ships (the reason I have gone overboard to play conservatively and minimize ships losses).

5. An invasion of Sumatra will require maximum carrier protection (the reason I have gone to such lengths to protect the Alllied carriers).

6. The Sumatra force will consist of six to eight Allied divisions and many other units in support.

7. Brad's move on India created both opportunity and peril. The opportunity is the possibility of invading Sumatra soon, thus making it very, very difficult to extract his India expeditionary army.   The peril is that the KB has been posted in the Bay of Bengal in close proximity to Sumatra. Ultimately, I have decided for this and other reasons that I should stick to the original timetable unless things become so desperate for the Allies that I have to play desperately.

8. I have been carefully monitoring both Brad's base development and SigInt information about troop deployment. To this point, the picture is very promising. There have been what I would describe as minimal development of Sumatra - active base-building at Sabang, but most of the rest of the bases either quiet or just a bit of growth. The only unit deployed was 65th Mixed Brigade, which just arrived at Padang (darn it!). On the other hand, base-building in northwestern Oz, Timor, and NoPac has been going gang-busters.

9. I probably don't need to remind you guys to please keep this totally quiet. Avoid any kind of posting or prodding in Brad's AAR along the lines of "what about Sumatra" or "what kind of troops do you have at Padang?" Pretty please!

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:30:43 AM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for chiming in, guys.

One more chime.

Rememebr that auto-vic isn't a one-time thing. On 1/1/1944 the ratios decrease substantially. You have to either drive him back in India enough to get below 3:1, or do damage elsewhere to get there. I believe you're at roughly 3.5:1 now? 3.4:1 maybe?

Allied LCU losses count more for VP purposes than Japanese VP losses for LCU devices. So he can grind in India for awhile, and while not getting the auto-vic in 1943, get you farther away from 3:1. He can lose more men than you in India and still get more VPs than you do from the battles.

Also, the x4 terrain bonus at Bombay works both directions once he's in the hex. If you attack him to try to throw him out of the hex and allow supply production, he gets the x4 defense bonus, and you suffer from it.

This is just to say, if you're not really hurting him by early 1943, and the big VP banks in India are still mostly Japanese, I wouldn't wait until July to try to start the comeback. He could try his own version of Sir Robin, and rope-a-dope his naval exposure VPs until January 1944.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:32:37 AM

cookie monster

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Sounds like a plan.

I was wondering how you are using your subs.

Where do you have them deployed?

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:35:01 AM

Canoerebel

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Beleive me, auto victory won't be in play in 1944.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:38:05 AM

Canoerebel

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Allied subs are deployed all over the place, but the biggest concentrations are the Hokkaido chokepoints, southern Japan, and Indian Ocean.

Allied subs have gotten a large number of hits against merchant vessels, but nearly all have been duds. During the first month or two, the Allies were winning the sub wars, but since then they've done nothing.

IE, the subs seemed to be positioned well, but the dud rate is negating that.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 3:53:06 AM

vettim89

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Allied subs are deployed all over the place, but the biggest concentrations are the Hokkaido chokepoints, southern Japan, and Indian Ocean.

Allied subs have gotten a large number of hits against merchant vessels, but nearly all have been duds.� During the first month or two, the Allies were winning the sub wars, but since then they've done nothing.

IE, the subs seemed to be positioned well, but the dud rate is negating that.

My experience is similar. I had some early war success but then duds almost exclusively. We even had quite a few duds from RN and RNN subs which is REALLY frustrating. I actually take some solace every time a USN fleet boat attacks because it means they are out there doing there job at least. It also is a gentle reminder that come 1/43 and then really on 9/43, mayhem will be wreaked. This is a second advantage to you as far as India goes: Brad will have a pretty rich killing ground for your subs. He likely will be forced to develop the Andman Islands to help out with LBA ASW efforts

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 5:54:19 AM

JeffroK

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Interesting target.

I just played with myself in a game where I held Palembang throughout (lots of evacuees from Singapore helped)

A lot of the bases are capable of being build into size 7-9 Air Bases.

Some of the negatives are that you are very close to some bases on the Malay Peninsula & Java that can interdict your shipping at medium ranges. the ports on the Indian Ocean, Benkeloken, Padang, are connected by tracks, and just too far to support each other efficiently, The Padag, Djambi, Oosthaven triangle is probably the best area.

i also took Christmas & Cocos(Keeling) Is to provide support & some of the Sumatra Islands such as Nias etc.

Should be interesting, if you can get enough ashore, quickly enough, you might put a massive plug in the sea LOC to India and at least make him walk home.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:16:36 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

Thanks for the info, and JohnDillworth gets the prize for correctly guessing the ultimate destination.

BTW, I figured this out by you postings, I don't think there was anything on the map that would lead me to this conclusion. You had mentioned you might keep the American reinforcements in Capetown to use in future operations. That, and they fact that you are drawing attention to the Northern Pacific as a fient led me to look at exactly the opposite place. If you pull it off Brad's Army will have to walk home.
One question and one concern. You said you were monitoring his base construction and troop deployment. Was this strictly through SigInt? I don't see how you could run any air recon.
My concern is air attrition. Yes you can build up some pretty good air bases, but the Japanese have some pretty good ones too. It seems you are setting yourself up for an air-war of attrition. A war you are already losing. As they say in "Starship Troopers". "It's a numbers game and they have more". particularly in scenario 2. I suggest you get over your shyness about stacking up lots of AA units.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 1:51:38 PM

Nemo121

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JeffK,

I have held Sumatra and Java ( and southern Borneo and Burma) vs a PBEM opponent - and invaded the Marshalls and Mindanao. It gives you a LOT of options you otherwise wouldn't have. I think my last bombing raid ( and first ) over Singers cost me about 80 planes vs 40 Japanese planes but I think I also sank a BB ( or certainly put it into dock for 2 or 3 months ).

If you can hold Sumatra then I think the game is pretty much won as the Allies.

_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/9/2010 3:22:58 PM

Canoerebel

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8/11/42

Sumatra (in reply to JohnDillworth): I'm monitoring IJ troop deployment solely by SigInt, and base building by using OpsReports and the cursor. I have a pretty good feel for what's going on and it's clear that Brad (to this point at least) is concentrating much of his efforts on Oz and NoPac. The air war concerns me, too. That's one reason I wanted to spring this in the autumn of '43, though the date is pretty flexible. Also, if I ultimately end up nixing this target, my next choice might be Sikhalin Island.

Strategic Planning: I think AdmSpruance posted in another thread yesterday his love of the early war planning. I feel the same way. I love the planning and logistics for the Allies early in the war. So I've had a ball working on the Sumatra plan and all the deception it entails. Now I'm really cranking up the Marcus and Wake plans, which should dovetail nicely with everything else. With that in mind here's what I'm thinking:

Strategic: The Allied carriers will complete their Arabian Sea duties within the next two weeks. They will then depart for Panama City via Capetown. I'm not sure whether the carriers will serve as escorts for the Wake/Marcus operations, or instead serve as the centerpiece of a major deception toward the Kuriles time for mid- or late-October (probably the latter). The timing is important - winter conditions set in on November 1, so Brad knows I have to move before then if I'm coming. The Allies will also feint toward New Caledonia and the New Hebrides, which I'm currently reconning (Noumea, Koumac, and Efate are lightly held, which Brad will worry about of course).

Operational: SigInt a few days ago showed Marcus with just 1300 men, which sounds good. No info on Wake, but with a level 6,000 limit, it shouldn't have much. Forces to be committed: Marcus: 159 RCT, 132 RCT, 2 USMC Arty, 102 Combat Eng., 627 Tank Destroyers, 142 Base Force, 86 Coastal AA, 4th Marine Defense Battalion. Wake: 2nd Marines, 145 RCT, 4th Arty, 754 Tanks, 1 Amphib HQ, 34 Combat Eng., 76 Coast AA, 637 Tank Destroyers.

Effect: If this plan proves effective, the Allies will have poked a major bulge in the CenPac region. This, combined with Midway and the big Aleutians buildups, should facilitate the creation of a major deception in this region right before the move on Sumatra. At the same time, if Sumatra gets scrubbed, this will give the Allies another possible major vector of attack - the Bonins or NoPac.

The Key: The KB. If it's absent, this mission should easily succeed. If present, probable disaster. So I am hoping the KB will remain engaged around India, or if not will be draw to NoPac.

As for the current situation in the game:

India: Fairly quiet here at the moment as I await the arrival of the first of the next wave of reinforcements in about three days. No sign, yet, of any invasion force bound for the small port across the bight from Surat. The Allies now have 300 AV there. I think Brad may have an AV with patrol aircraft out near Socatra Island.

China: A massed IJA army is besieging Liuchow - something like eight divisions. They managed a 2:1 attack two days ago that dropped forts from 4 to 3, but it cost the Japanese great disruption. I'm hoping Brad has to wait a few more days to attack again. The Chinese will add 430 AV tomorrow, plus another 600 AV in about four days.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/9/2010 3:24:48 PM >

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/10/2010 2:05:29 PM

Canoerebel

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8/12/42 to 8/13/42

We're about to have one of those little "behind the scene" episodes that bring real thrills to the game even when no carrier or combat ship engagements are in the offing.

India at Sea: Brad is sniffing around Socatra hot and heavy, and I'm hoping, hoping, hoping that the bait (a bunch of xAKL) will entice him to send his carriers that way. (I-25 picked off one xAKL). At the very least, I hope he's not fixed on Karachi at the moment. The first of the big Allied troop TFs will arrive in three days, carryng more Marines. Then, in about seven to nine days, 27th Division will arrive. If these troops make it safely, the Allies will go on the offensive, working the edges of the Japanese deployment north of Bombay. The war is about to change, but I hope he is blissfully unaware of that fact.

India on the Ground: Brad has totally surrounded Bombay now, including a jungle hex hard against the sea that he really had to work to reach. His campaign around Bombay is developing, but very, very slowly, suggesting his plan is to focus on Bombay between now and January 1, 1943. This is a mistake, I believe. He's acting like he's got all the time in the world, but he may not be factoring in the arrival of Allied reinforcements.

India in the Air: Brad is nibbling around Bombay with fighters - clashes occur every day, with no more than light losses on both sides. I'm not sure why his bombers aren't working the area yet.

China: Brad's troops have Liuchow down to two forts, but another 1,000 Allied AV will arrive in about two days, so it's going to be close here.

CenPac: All troops assigned to Marcus and Wake Island are prepping now. If the invasions are successful, the Allies will leave behind an infantry unit and a CD on each base. If there's room, I'll leave some base force personnel at Wake, which is a level three airfield. I think the Allies will have at least two more CVE by the time this operation takes place (mid to late October, I think). The deception for this plan will focus on an apparent move on New Caledonia and New Hebrides. Continued reconn, which I think has Brad's full attention, show these islands lightly garrisoned.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/10/2010 2:07:46 PM >

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/10/2010 3:54:55 PM

Cribtop

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Oh, my. Get those troops ashore and it may be time for a Little Round Top moment.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/10/2010 4:05:13 PM

JohnDillworth

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I think Brad may be able to squeeze the hell out of Bombay. From the air, on the ground and with BB's at sea. If he wants to blockade with the KB, unchallenged, he might be able to drive supply pretty low.

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RE: One Weird Battle - 11/10/2010 6:22:07 PM

Canoerebel

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John,

First, thanks for the interesting link yesterday to the "mysterious missile" story. That was the first I'd heard of it and I looked into in carefully.

Second, I was amazed at you catching flak for supposedly posting a story that might generate controversy. Nothing like doing something out of kindness and then getting the blame with a numbskull or two starts a riot.

Third, what you just described is clearly Brad's plan for Bombay, but I don't think he can win the battle over the long term. The Allies are just going to be too strong on his flank, posing a real risk to the security of his own forces.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it (unless and until it all falls apart so that I am publicly humiliated and have to think of a way to blame the game for my woes).

Dan

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

Post #: 806

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/10/2010 6:50:08 PM

JohnDillworth

Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

irst, thanks for the interesting link yesterday to the "mysterious missile" story. That was the first I'd heard of it and I looked into in carefully.

Second, I was amazed at you catching flak for supposedly posting a story that might generate controversy. Nothing like doing something out of kindness and then getting the blame with a numbskull or two starts a riot.

Thanks for the kind words. I think this has happened to all of us on one occasion or another. Not to be judgmental but I think maybe someone has an ax to grind with one of the people that was posting and I just go caught in the cross-fire. I'll just lay low for a few days so there is no guilt by association.
Again thanks and start sending more supply to Bombay. Maybe 1 xAKL at a time

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(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 807

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/10/2010 9:54:04 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

8/13/42

China: A sharp rebuke for the Allies as 7-and-2/3 IJA divisions shock attack and take Liuchow just before reinforcements arrive. Fortunately, for once a defeated Allied army takes a sensible route to retreat, moving along the road toward Kweilin. The Chinese have about 2,300 AV in the retreating stack. That, along with the 2,500 AV at Kweilin, should be enough to hold that hex. To the west, I'll establish a roadblack in the first wooded hex - about 1,000 AV. But if the Japanese move in strength this way, I'll cobble together a larger force at Toyun. Supply in China is a problem since India isn't contributing any, but that's the cards dealt.

India: Another quiet turn. The first of the big Allied reinforcement TFs just exited the "wormhole," will arrive at Karachi tomorrow, and should unload the day after. More is on the way, so the next few days are critical - I don't need the KB or a strong combat TF to show up now.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

Post #: 808

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/10/2010 11:41:39 PM

crsutton

Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: vettim89

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Allied subs are deployed all over the place, but the biggest concentrations are the Hokkaido chokepoints, southern Japan, and Indian Ocean.

Allied subs have gotten a large number of hits against merchant vessels, but nearly all have been duds.� During the first month or two, the Allies were winning the sub wars, but since then they've done nothing.

IE, the subs seemed to be positioned well, but the dud rate is negating that.

My experience is similar. I had some early war success but then duds almost exclusively. We even had quite a few duds from RN and RNN subs which is REALLY frustrating. I actually take some solace every time a USN fleet boat attacks because it means they are out there doing there job at least. It also is a gentle reminder that come 1/43 and then really on 9/43, mayhem will be wreaked. This is a second advantage to you as far as India goes: Brad will have a pretty rich killing ground for your subs. He likely will be forced to develop the Andman Islands to help out with LBA ASW efforts

No, don't get your Allied sub hopes up. An effective Japanese player can neutralize the Allied sub effort. It is fun and Allied subs can be dangerous but any hope of any serious impact on Japanese oil and resource shipping is a pipe dream. In fact the greater impact will be the sinkings you get on Japanese warships.

The reasons for this are.

The ability of the Japanese player to create significantly better ASW assets and use them in a better manner. More Allied subs (lots more) go to the bottom than historically happened. And in scen#2 it seems the Japanese player gets a lot more DDs and escorts or the ability to convert.

Serious targeting issuse where Allied subs will on at least %50 of the time (or greater) attack some craptacular escort vessel (and usually miss) rather than the more valuable tankers and merchants. It pays the Japanese to have at least one escort with his ships as this can pretty much assure minimal loss.

You will sink lots of ships but in no way sink enough to cripple the Japanese merchant fleet with your subs.

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(in reply to vettim89)

Post #: 809

RE: One Weird Battle - 11/10/2010 11:47:12 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Sadly, this situation with Allied subs is just as you guys say.

Another factor is that by the time the dud rate declines, Japanese ASW is death on Allied subs.

Sometime in 1943, I will stop using Allied subs en masse. I will use them for screening purposes and to "flood the zone" when I think I know where a big engagement is going to occur. But I will not even try to impose any kind of blockade vs. merchant shipping. I did that in my game vs. Miller and lost hundreds of subs for nearly no return.

(in reply to crsutton)

Post #: 810